CNBC Halftime Report: "Counting Down to the Fed Rate Decision" – December 10, 2025

Host: Scott Wapner

Panel: Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Carrie Firestone, Jenny Harrington

Special Guests: Deirdre Bosa, Steve Liesman, Leslie Picker, Richard Ramsden (Goldman Sachs), Emily Wilkins

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode is a live roundtable of market experts and CNBC analysts dissecting the market’s mood ahead of the much-anticipated Fed rate decision on December 10, 2025. The focus spans the impact of interest rate policy, evolving market sentiment, sector-specific stories, and timely corporate news, with in-depth debate over whether the Fed’s anticipated “hawkish cut” is already priced into equities. Additionally, the episode tackles mega-cap earnings—particularly Oracle and Broadcom—AI sector bifurcation, existential threats to Uber from Waymo, notable analyst calls, and the health of key market sectors heading into 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Fed Rate Decision: Is a Hawkish Cut Priced In?

• Anticipation and Market Psychology: Panel consensus is that markets broadly expect a quarter-point rate cut with hawkish guidance, and most of this is "already priced in." The line in the sand for bond yields and equities is debated.
• Interest Rate Levels and Equity Risk:
  • Carrie Firestone [01:46]: “The actual resistance for equities, in my opinion, is 4.5% on the 10-year. We’re still far from that scary threshold.”
  • Joe Terranova [02:59]: “If we see the return of elevated bond market volatility, that's going to be a problem... but I think it's priced in.”
  • Jenny Harrington [06:19]: “What Oracle says, what Broadcom says—I think that's way more important as an influence on the market over the rest of the week than anything the Fed says.”

Market Trading Strategy & Sector Rotation

• “Santa Rally” Prospects: Market is near highs; FOMO-driven end-of-year buying is discussed.
• Volatility Watch: Comparing today’s “tight trading range” to the bond volatility of 2022.
• 2026 Outlook: Focus on how a new Fed chair and unknown macro data could shift 2026 rate cuts, with only moderate confidence in further cuts before June [Steve Liesman, 07:52].

Notable Quote:

“The probability of another rate cut in January is just 23%. You don’t really have another cut confidently built in until June.”
— Steve Liesman, [07:52]

Corporate Stories & Earnings Watch

Uber and the Rise of Robotaxis

• Joe Terranova [10:05]: Announces personal sale of Uber shares due to technical concerns, despite holding it in his ETF.

• Jenny Harrington [12:13]: Remains bullish long term, unfazed by the recent 10% pullback, citing industry-wide tech fatigue.

• Deirdre Bosa [13:40]: Breaks Waymo (Alphabet) news:

  • 2025: 14 million paid rides so far, scaling rapidly, targeting 1 million rides per week in 2026.
  • Expansion into 20+ new cities including Tokyo and London.
  • Significant safety improvements vs. human drivers.

  “Waymo is scaling like crazy … it feels ubiquitous here. Kids, everyone’s taking Waymo. It goes from novelty to normalcy fast.”
  — Deirdre Bosa, [15:31]

• Market Impact: Uber stock plunges nearly 6% during the show.

AI & Mega Cap Tech Stocks—Bifurcation

• Carrie Firestone [17:46]: “It’s a news cycle—Broadcom/Alphabet are surging, Microsoft/Nvidia have flattened. That can easily rotate.”
  • Alpha in the “AI halo trade” is narrowing: Only Alphabet and Nvidia are outperforming the S&P among “Mag 7” stocks [19:05].
• Joe Terranova [19:07]: “Clear bifurcation, not a universal uptrend. 2026 won’t see all Mag 7 move together.”

Sector Fund Flows & Rotation

• Liz Thomas [20:39]: Examines Bank of America client data—money rotating out of most sectors except for Comm Services; tech outflows ongoing.
  • Predicts value sectors to shine in 2026, but says “you still have to own tech.”
  • “AI theme will drive economic activity, there will be new big winners in ’26.”

Analyst Calls & Trade Alerts

Notable Calls [26:01–31:33]

• Regeneron (Biotech): Wolf names top 2026 pick.
  • “Reasonably cheap stock, great earnings growth, doing nothing—momentum could go there next year.” — Jenny Harrington [26:09]
• Booking Holdings (Travel): Upgraded to BTIG top pick, $6250 target.
  • “We like it here, up 14% since last discussion.” — Carrie Firestone [27:10]
• General Dynamics (Defense): Wolf’s Top Defense Pick for 2026
  • Defense spending focus on naval assets in the South China Sea, GD uniquely positioned — Joe Terranova [27:42]
• Fiserv (FinTech): Down 68% YTD, Mizuho says “outperform,” $110 target—credibility and management reset issues discussed
  • “It’s a credibility problem and a wait-and-see. We may take some off the table next year.” — Jenny Harrington [30:25]

Trade Alert: Waste Connections (WCN)

• Surat Sethi [45:26]: Initiates position, describing WCN as an overlooked, steady grower in the waste management sector.
  • “It’s a great core, defensive play. Not exciting this year, but long-term steady grower.” — Carrie Firestone [46:50]

Special Features & Interviews

Banking Sector: Exclusive with Goldman Sachs’ Richard Ramsden [35:23–40:41]

• Leslie Picker interviews Ramsden on the competitive banking environment post-Fed, JP Morgan’s surprise expense guidance, and outlook for bank growth with falling rates.
  • JP Morgan’s Expense Shock: Market was surprised by $105bn in expense guidance vs. $96bn expected. Offensive/defensive spend to protect market share.
  • Industry-wide Competition: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi all ramping up growth and lending efforts.
  • 2026 Net Interest Income: Expecting “mid-single digit” growth, as banks see rising corporate loan demand, regulatory capital relief, and even a possible return to commercial real estate lending.

    “There is a lot of optimism around the U.S. economy and resilience of consumers.”
    — Richard Ramsden, [37:14]

Post-interview Panel Reaction

• Joe Terranova [41:10]: “It now comes down to JPM’s ability to increase revenue consistent with the expense growth... or there will be negative operating leverage.”

Rotating Sectors & Consumer Discretionary Standouts

Discretionary Upgrades & Winners

• Ulta, Ross, TJX: All earning price target bumps and trading at record highs.
  • “It’s an idiosyncratic story … when you find winners like ULTA, TJX, Ross, that’s why people are paying the premium.” — Joe Terranova [22:26]
  • Gen Z demand for beauty, and even tweens, fueling Ulta’s strength [23:34]

Final Trades [48:10+]

• Jenny Harrington: Sabra Health Care REIT — 6.3% yield, safe from AI disruption, demographic tailwinds.
• Carrie Firestone: Apollo — alternative asset manager, expects turn as rates decline.
• Liz Thomas: Value sector ETF/funds — “Rotation should take grip in 2026.”
• Joe Terranova: Spotify — Breaking away from Netflix correlation, bullish on podcasts and pricing power.

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• "What Oracle says, what Broadcom says—I think that's way more important as an influence in the market over the rest of the week than anything the Fed says."
  — Jenny Harrington, [06:19]
• “Waymo is scaling like crazy ... it feels ubiquitous here. Kids, everyone’s taken Waymo. It goes from novelty to normalcy fast.”
  — Deirdre Bosa, [15:31]
• “The probability of another rate cut in January is just 23%. You don’t really have another cut confidently built in until June.”
  — Steve Liesman, [07:52]
• “It's a credibility problem [for Fiserv] and a wait-and-see. We may take some off the table next year.”
  — Jenny Harrington, [30:25]
• “There is a dramatic bifurcation in the Mag 7—only Alphabet and Nvidia are outperforming the S&P this year.”
  — Joe Terranova, [19:07]
• “You still have to own tech. ... The whole AI theme still has to drive economic activity, but there will be really big new winners in '26.”
  — Liz Thomas, [20:39]
• “If we see the return of elevated bond market volatility, that's going to be a problem ... but I think it's priced in.”
  — Joe Terranova, [02:59]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Fed/Rate anticipation and implications: [01:00]–[08:44]
• Uber/Waymo existential competition: [10:05]–[16:41]
• AI stock bifurcation & sector rotation: [17:46]–[21:52]
• Upgrades and analyst calls: [26:01]–[31:33]
• Goldman Sachs’ Ramsden on banks: [35:23]–[40:41]
• Trade alert (Waste Connections): [45:26]–[47:40]
• Final trades: [48:10]–[49:06]

Tone and Style

• The discussion is fast-paced, candid, and blends technical strategy with on-the-fly reactions to market-moving news.
• Panelists banter about their different investment horizons and philosophies, especially in the segment on Uber vs. Waymo.
• The tone is observant, at times skeptical but generally constructive, with frequent agreement and some good-natured debate.

Summary

This Halftime Report episode provides a comprehensive, real-time snapshot of market attitudes just before a critical Fed decision—balancing the macro (interest rates, central bank policy, sector flows) with the micro (individual stock dynamics, earnings, and breaking news). The panel’s consensus is that a cautious, “hawkish” rate cut is likely baked in, while earnings from Oracle and Broadcom and new tech trends (notably Waymo’s Robotaxi growth) matter as much or more in shifting market momentum. Value sectors, consumer standouts like Ulta, and overlooked defensive plays like Waste Connections offer themes for 2026 investors. Discussion of JP Morgan’s expense shock and the broader banking landscape rounds out a wide-ranging hour, capped by actionable final trades and insights for navigating an increasingly segmented stock market.