DEBATE: Is AI Artificially Inflated? 10/6/25

Summary

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Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: DEBATE: Is AI Artificially Inflated?
Date: October 6, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Anastasia Amoroso, Steve Weiss, Michael Santoli (market commentary), Julia Boorstin (news and headlines), Christina Partsinevelos (AMD deal analysis)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the continuing mania around AI, focusing on whether market valuations—especially for AI-related stocks—are entering bubble territory or supported by robust spending cycles. The panel responds to high-profile voices like Paul Tudor Jones on AI’s bubble risk, discusses AMD’s huge new partnership with OpenAI and its impact on Nvidia, explores consolidation in banking, the strength of tech, global market leadership, as well as sector updates spanning financials, health care, payments, and metals. The tone is dynamic and pragmatic, balancing bullish optimism with measured caution on market momentum.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Markets and the Bull Run

• Market Performance: Nasdaq leads with new highs, alongside records for Bitcoin and gold.
  • "Nasdaq's the winner. No surprise because obviously what's happening in the tech and the chip space today." — Scott Wapner [01:01]
• Sentiment Check: Ed Yardeni raises S&P target to 7,000; odds of a market “melt up” rise (bullishness increases among top strategists).
• Late-Stage Bull Market:
  • Joe Terranova frames the environment as one where price appreciation is strongest at the final leg of a bull market.
  • "The calendar is the enemy for those that are bearish because you are going to see portfolio managers begin to chase." — Joe Terranova [02:14]

AI Bubble? Comparing to 1999

• Paul Tudor Jones Parallels: Direct comparison to 1999 dotcom bubble, warning that ingredients for mania are present.
  • "Feels exactly like 1999. I don't know whether we'll actually replay it exactly, but I think all the ingredients are in place." — Quoted by Scott Wapner [03:50]
• FOMO to JOMO: Weiss introduces the idea of being in a FOMO ("fear of missing out") phase that eventually turns to JOMO ("joy of missing out" during a market crash).
  • "Pick that point in time when FOMO turns into JOMO when the market declines." — Steve Weiss [04:55]
• Structural Differences from ‘99: Today’s AI phase demands significant capital and engineering talent, making it different from the easy “hang out an Internet shingle” days—though there are still overvalued private ventures.
  • The panel feels AI will extend longer, buoyed by CapEx, until earnings or companies issue material warnings.

Quotes:

• "I just don't see the bubble bursting while you still have this major spending cycle." — Steve Weiss [05:11]

AI Spending, Capex, and AMD’s Big Move

• Ongoing CapEx Cycle:
  • Spending on data center capacity and AI infrastructure remains red-hot, with the expectation of overspending as a preferred risk to underinvesting.
  • "You'd rather err on the side of spending too much than too little because that's the environment that you're in." — Scott Wapner [08:07]
• AMD–OpenAI Deal:
  • AMD lands a substantial chip contract with OpenAI, supplying 6GW of compute (MI450 chips) by 2026—its biggest validation yet against Nvidia.
  • But OpenAI is still committing far more to Nvidia (10GW); this is viewed as hedging/diversification on OpenAI’s part, not a displacement.
  • Creative deal structures (OpenAI receives AMD warrants) highlight how much value and risk are being shuffled.
  • "AMD is literally betting its own equity that can deliver." — Julia Boorstin [10:02]

Investment Strategies and Risks

• Large Cap vs. "Tool Belt":
  • Weiss prefers "tool belt" and cloud compounders (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) instead of speculative private AI names; sees cloud platforms as undervalued.
• Future of Semis:
  • Debate over whether semiconductor momentum is sustainable into 2027 or if hyperscale capex is peaking.
  • Joe Terranova remains bullish on semis for near-term price appreciation; Amoroso is more cautious, seeing opportunity in legacy, predictable data centers.
• AI Monetization:
  • Key near-term question: Are companies actually making money from AI? For now, evidence is thin but mounting in some portfolios.
  • "Is there, are there signs of AI monetization? Do we actually have companies that have killer apps generating revenues?" — Anastasia Amoroso [06:53]

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Sector Snapshots & Themes

1. Regional Banks & M&A

• Consolidation Theme:
  • Fifth Third–Comerica deal ($11B) suggests ongoing regional bank consolidation, supported by easier regulations.
  • Terranova recommends owning a basket of regionals for the next 6–9 months.
  • "The regulatory lift is probably the biggest catalyst. I think there's more to come." — Joe Terranova [18:09]
• Market Movement:
  • Russell’s outperformance today reflects bank merger optimism.

2. Payments & Fintech

• Positive Analyst Calls:
  • Amex and Capital One price targets raised; Discover–Capital One deal seen positively.
  • Joe Terranova: "American Express is really the representation of the fluid consumer remaining remarkably strong." [23:11]

3. Global Market Leadership

• US Underperforming Global Markets:
  • Japan, Hong Kong, China, Mexico, Canada, Germany all outpacing the S&P 500 YTD.
  • Some strategists upgrade Europe and EM equities, but Weiss hesitates to shift money due to tax and portfolio constraints.
  • "The United States is always going to be the leading market—it just depends on the time frame." — Steve Weiss [25:12]

4. Health Care Sector

• Best Week in Years for XLV:
  • Momentum returning, especially after Pfizer’s “clearing event” and Merck’s bounce.
• Bifurcation in Health Care:
  • Weiss: System is “broken,” but selectivity is key—favoring tech enablers like Veeva and biotech over legacy insurers/providers.
• CROs and MedTech:
  • Amoroso: Prefers contract research organizations and medtech (e.g., using 3D printing and AI for custom implants).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Feels exactly like 1999. I don't know whether we'll actually replay it exactly, but I think all the ingredients are in place." — Paul Tudor Jones, via Scott Wapner [03:50]
• "Pick that point in time when FOMO turns into JOMO when the market declines." — Steve Weiss [04:55]
• "The regulatory lift is probably the biggest catalyst. I think there's more to come." — Joe Terranova [18:09]
• "(On AI): Is there, are there signs of AI monetization? Do we actually have companies that have killer apps generating revenues?" — Anastasia Amoroso [06:53]
• "AMD is literally betting its own equity that can deliver." — Julia Boorstin [10:02]
• "I'm probably going to risk here all the way down to about 92. The stock is 103. So I'm not going to buy a lot of this because I want to make sure I leave myself the room for the opportunity." — Joe Terranova, discussing new biotech ETF position [38:13]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• AI Bubble/1999 Parallels & Paul Tudor Jones: [03:20–06:53]
• AMD–OpenAI Deal & Nvidia Impact: [09:31–11:33]
• Investment Strategy Amidst FOMO: [12:15–17:08]
• Regional Banks & M&A: [17:47–20:45]
• Fintech/Payments Calls: [22:34–23:43]
• International vs. US Market Performance: [23:43–25:55]
• Health Care Sector Rotation/Bifurcation: [36:59–42:54]
• Market Commentary, Late-1990s Returns: [43:20–44:57]
• Final Trades & Closing Thoughts: [45:28–45:55]

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Conclusion

This episode recognizes the intensity and broadening nature of the current bull market, especially in AI, while warning of late-stage dynamics commonly seen before peaks. The panel largely argues the AI boom is supported by extraordinary capex—not pure hype—but acknowledges the parallels to past bubbles and the ever-present risk when everyone wants to “keep dancing.”
The AMD–OpenAI deal is a major AI news story, but Nvidia’s lead is seen as secure—for now.
Panelists stress tactical flexibility, selectivity in tech and health care, and see value in banks and select metals even as global leadership shifts. There’s wide agreement that investors should remain alert, nimble, and be ready for trend shifts as the year finishes strong.

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Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Walker. Front and center this hour, more AI mania as AMD strikes a deal. We'll debate what it means for Nvidia as another well known investor weighs in on the AI bubble question. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Anastasia Amoroso, Steve Weiss. Let's go to the markets. We have a mixed picture on this Monday. Nasdaq's the winner. No surprise because obviously what's happening in the tech and the chip space today. More specifically so stocks record high, bitcoin record high, gold record high. Joe. Ed Yardeni raises his price target back to 7,000. He'll be with us on closing bell today so you can hear directly from him. He says the odds of another melt up are at 30% up from 25. He reduced his base case for a sustainable bull market that is without a correction to 50 from 55. So in other words, he's just more bullish. More bullish.

[Joe Terranova]

He is more bullish. And we're continuing to see the rally broaden out. Most recently you have the Russell which has broken out from a double top that it was traced out from 2021 and 2024. So now that's participating as well. I've said the calendar is the enemy for those that are bearish because in fact, you are going to see portfolio managers begin to chase. We're going to talk a little bit more about what Paul Tudor Jones said on the network today. But he summarized something that I am feeling and that portfolio managers and financial advisors I speak with are feeling and that is at the last leg of A bull market, generally, that's where you get the strongest price appreciation. So you have to be there.

[Scott Wapner]

The so called blow off top is how you refer.

[Joe Terranova]

You have to participate, but you also have those happy feet. You almost feel as though you're on your front foot ready to sprint away from the market and have to be very tactical in doing so. And I think we all kind of collectively feel that way, but we're afraid to make that move ahead of the end of the calendar year because what's in front of us right now is a little bit unknown in terms of price. This could extend a lot further.

[Scott Wapner]

You're, you're talking as if everybody knows what you're referencing. It's Paul Tudor Jones who was on Squawk Box today and he was asked about whether there's an AI bubble, similarities, rhymes, etc. To prior periods in history, especially obviously the late 90s. Let's listen to what he had to say and we can kick it around on the other side. Feels exactly like 1999. I don't know whether we'll actually replay it exactly, but I think all the.

[Steve Weiss]

Ingredients are in place.

[Scott Wapner]

And certainly from a trading standpoint, you have to position yourself like it's 10/99. I don't see why you would do anything but that.

[Steve Weiss]

And remember, the NASDAQ doubled between the first week of October 99 and March of 2000.

[Scott Wapner]

So if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably.

[Steve Weiss]

Not a chicken, Right?

[Scott Wapner]

All right, that's Paul Tudor Jones, always worth a listen anytime he is on this network. The idea is that, you know, you're afraid to miss out, so you keep running with it, but you got to get out quick because eventually it's going to end poorly. The challenge is being able to identify and get out quick, quickly. Even if today you know it's going to end badly, you still don't want to miss out as he references. We doubled in the NASDAQ from October 99 until everything ended in not too, you know, late 2000.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, so. So you, you really trying to pick that point in time when fomo, the fear of missing out turns into Jomo, the joy of missing out when the market declines.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you think we're in the FOMO period now?

[Steve Weiss]

I do.

[Scott Wapner]

I really entered that yet?

[Steve Weiss]

Oh, I think we've been here for a while. But here's the difference between 19. I think it's going to end the same way. But the reason why this will extend longer than that October to March period that is referencing is that you can go into business just by high, you know, hanging a sign out and taking advantage of the Internet. And it really didn't take much capital to do that here. You actually need capital to play and you need real engineering talent, which is, which is human capital. So sure, you've got some, some small companies in the private markets that just aren't going to have a business model ever. But when we're talking about the larger companies in the private markets, they're real assets. So what you're talking about is not sustainability of a business model, but valuation, the business model. So there'll be plenty that go bankrupt and belly up, as I said. But overall, I just don't see the bubble bursting while you still have this major spending cycle. Well, that's the thing that's going on.

[Scott Wapner]

That's the thing. It's, as long as the capex music is playing, so to speak, people are going to continue to dance to it and there's no indication at this point that it's going to stop anytime soon. And many notes are talking about the fact that, look, Capex is going to remain robust and then that's still going to be the thing that carries it. Wells Fargo today, don't underestimate the capex cycle. Expect it to continue. Eric Sheridan, he's the tech analyst at Goldman Sachs today on the question of a bubble, we see some reasons to reference the late 90s, but don't yet see all the alignment for a market dynamic that would result in a dramatic and negative rerating. That seems to be the prevailing view. What about you?

[Anastasia Amoroso]

That's right, Scott. I think the key word in there is yet. So we have to think about the CapEx announcements that we're getting in terms of the demand growth that we're expecting. If you look at data centers, for example, today there's something like 82 gigawatts of data center capacity demand and that's projected to go219 over the next several years. So all the announcements that you're getting are in order for us to get to that build out of data centers. But at some point we will have built enough data center capacity and the question is going to be is the demand is actually there? So to me, one of the key points as we go through this earnings season is I think what investors are going to start questioning again, Scott, which is, is there, are there signs of AI monetization? Do we actually have companies that have killer apps that are generating revenues from those? Do we have tailored tangible savings from infusing AI into companies. And you know, I think we are seeing some of those signs for some of our portfolio companies and we certainly focused on that. But I think the market will focus on the larger ecosystem and I don't know if there are that many signs yet to point out to the monetization. So I do wonder if investors will start to question the trajectory of the capex trend near term.

[Scott Wapner]

Not until, you know, somebody warns about it or raises some flags about it, you know, in earnings or otherwise. Greg Brockman OpenAI he told Carl and Jim earlier, quote, we need as much computing power as we can get. Lisa Su of AMD AI compute is needed everywhere. So everybody's talking the same game that there's just not enough compute. You're not going to need less, you're going to need more and you have to spend. You'd rather err on the side of spending too much than too little because that's the environment that you're in. There is these, you know, so called circular deals, vendor financed deals, so to speak. That makes people a little bit nervous. But I said companies are making it awfully clear. They're saying it publicly and I'm sure privately they're just going to spend and they're going to err on that side.

[Joe Terranova]

For now, Scott, we're relying a lot on open airway in that spending and we're relying on OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars. And I think the question becomes where's this capital coming from? You can make the argument it's coming from venture capital, debt markets, some unique type of financing.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, they keep raising money, they're at a half trillion dollar valuation in the private market.

[Joe Terranova]

And I've said I think they're headed towards a trillion dollars when they ultimately IPO. But this spending that we seem reliant on from OpenAI, obviously it benefits. In video, you asked at the top of the show what is the deal with AMD meant? Not very much. Nvidia is down 40 basis points. Barely.

[Scott Wapner]

It's barely down. But there is, there is a narrative out there that maybe for the first time that this is the most direct challenge to Nvidia that amd, largely viewed as second or third fiddle here, has made a big play to challenge the dominance of Nvidia. Christina Parts and Evolos joins us now with a look at that. Is that, is that your key look today on how this impacts this darling of four and a half trillion dollars in market cap?

[Julia Boorstin]

This is really just about compute diversification. So you guys were spot on. You spoke that Nvidia shares are down less than 1%. And this is as AMD, just to remind our audience, just landed a massive chip deal with OpenAI. But looking past the headlines, this is about OpenAI actually hedging its bets and then AMD finally getting validation for its AI inference chip. So AI is going to. Or AMD is going to supply 6 gigawatts of this AI compute specific, specifically the Mi 400 and 50 chips to OpenAI starting in 2026. And this is going to be for inference workloads really that compute that powers ChatGPT responses. OpenAI, though, has already committed 10 gigawatts to Nvidia. So this isn't about necessarily replacing Nvidia the market leader. It's about diversifying supply. AMD is also issuing open air warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, potentially a 10% stake that Vesta's deployment hits milestones. AMD is literally betting its own equity that can deliver. And as more of the stock market's value gets tied to OpenAI success. Joe, you just pointed that out earlier. Investors are almost becoming synthetically long. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's major backers. OpenAI too, when it comes to financing, has committed over $1 trillion in buildouts, but has only really raised about 60 billion. So we could expect to see more creative deals around power cooling, data center infrastructure. Something to keep in mind when you're looking at other plays. AMD, though, shares are up almost 29% on the news. Nvidia falling not even a half percent right now. The market is telling you who still owns AI.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, no doubt. Christina, thank you for that perfect setup for us. Christina Parzone. It's a crazy move in AMD, by the way. Nvidia target today to 10 at Goldman. Nvidia target to 275 at Melius. Nvidia overweight at KeyBanc, the target is 250. But if I said to you, okay, if you agree with everything that PTJ had to say to the gang on Squawk, what would you do? Would you do anything differently in the market today? Even if you wholeheartedly agree that at some point you're gonna have to be nimble and have dancing feet and moonwalk your way out of this market, would it change the way you would invest today?

[Steve Weiss]

You know, actually it wouldn't. And here's why. Because I'm not in what I perceive are the risky names. I'm more in the tool belt and some of the permanent compounders. So I own that. I own Microsoft, I own a lot of Taiwan semi, which despite cutting back is still my biggest position by a margin. I don't own the companies or in the private market that are the riskiest with the most inflated valuations. And what we're seeing with the funding with AMD I think is sort of out of whack. And what, what Open Air is basically said we're going to create value in your company by giving you these orders. We want to participate. So that's why they're getting the warrants based upon the business levels that they do. But I don't see it as a real threat to in video because what they, what from what I read in the press release and what I've heard, it's at the lower end of the, of the intellectual capabilities of the chips, the GPUs. So I'm not really worried about number one. Number two, what I am worried about is the ones that have the bigger balance sheets and the bigger ability and the bigger need to create chips that compete with Nvidia. And that's Meta, that's Microsoft, that's Alphabet. So those are the ones that you should really focus on that are going to be very discreet in terms of their competition with Nvidia because they're still buying from Nvidia.

[Scott Wapner]

Sure. But you have exposure to, you know, hyperscalers that are spending hand over fist and you're hoping that that money is ultimately going to pay off in what they're spending.

[Steve Weiss]

Right. But here, here's where, here's where I am the biggest beneficiary, the lowest risk beneficiary of all this is the cloud. So that's Microsoft, that's Google, that's Amazon. Because all the massive computing power that you're talking about that goes into the cloud, so it's got to go somewhere. So that's why I'm super pumped about those. And I actually think they are undervalued.

[Scott Wapner]

You think those are all undervalued?

[Steve Weiss]

I think they're undervalued relative to their long term prospects.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, there's still unanswered questions about what impact OpenAI and some of these other large language models in search are going to have on Google's, you know, one time almost monopoly on this area. Now the stock has had an incredible comeback from the depths of the deepest part of that conversation to date. So it's had a great recovery. There it is on your screen. 30 plus percent year to date.

[Steve Weiss]

Absolutely. But if you look at their, at.

[Scott Wapner]

Their value, that hasn't erased a lot of the questions, by the way.

[Steve Weiss]

No, no it hasn't. I mean, and you bring up the biggest question, what's going to search which is means what's it going to do their ad business, which is really what funds a lot of the other businesses, although cloud is profitable. I don't know the answer that I think it's going to be a long term, a long, long time before we find the answer that it's not just open air, it's perplexity, it's all these others that are coming forward.

[Scott Wapner]

But if Paul Tudor Jones thinks there's going to be, you know, this tremendous blow off top before things end badly, I mean that that's basically a call that this market, that the S and P is going way higher from here before it all ends in tears for people. Do you, if you again same question twice. If you agree with that strategy, do you stay into this area or do you start just broadening out your exposure to a number of different places, playing for an everything rally until everything has an issue, right?

[Anastasia Amoroso]

Well, I think everything is sort of maybe running into the issue because we do have that slowdown in the labor market and until the Fed really cushions that with a series of rate cuts, I actually am not too big of a fan of that cyclical trade. But if you look at the earnings season, for example, that we're coming into this quarter, it's all about tech. You know, tech is expected to drive 20% year over year growth in earnings. If you look at the number of positive updates, it's actually the tech again is leading the way. So I wouldn't yet shy away from it. But I will say, Scott, to kind of round out how we approach investing in AI, I do think investors need to be nimble and they need to migrate where they are right now. In the Air theme I think the semiconductor trade movement may be running out of steam and not too distant future. And I say that because we're probably looking at peak hyperscale CapEx this year and next year maybe the projections for 2027. So I wouldn't be surprised that those CapEx numbers either start to not grow as much or start to be pulled back. So obviously that's not good for the semiconductors. I do still think we're in the midst of building out the data center trade and that's where we're invested, for example, in private markets. Because if you are a data center, you negotiate a contract with one of those hyperscalers and you have certainty and predictability of cash flow. And so that's where we like to be in that. And then eventually, Scott, the opportunities in business application software, that's where I'm still looking for that killer app. Maybe OpenAI ends up being it.

[Joe Terranova]

I think, I think the challenge is using the words in the distant future because you have to define what does the distant future ultimately mean. When I look at the semiconductor industry right now, that's actually where in technology I'm seeing the strongest momentum. You kind of had this sideways pattern through the third quarter and now you're getting the breakout on the other side of it. And I really believe given the relevancy and the importance of semiconductors to the economy overall, the dramatic spending that we're seeing right now, if in fact we are going to have significant price appreciation through the end of the year, I think specifically the semiconductor industry is going to be the target of that.

[Scott Wapner]

You want to hit on the merger Monday in the regional bank space, Fifth Third, buying Comerica, almost $11 billion. You own Fifth Third. You have more exposure than anybody on the show and by far into the regional bank space. What you think about this deal and then what it portends for who might be next if there's going to be some kind of round of consolidation from those who feel like they need to grow scale to compete with this new entity.

[Joe Terranova]

I think a couple of years ago everyone was talking about needed consolidation in the regional banking industry. That was a very popular theme in 2023. A lot of people believe that that consolidation would come in the form of larger money center banks acquiring the assets of these regional banks. I think what has happened in 25 is you've had this paradigm shift where given a much easier regulatory environment that is actually going to happen through M and A. And we've seen it along ready this year. This is more evidence of it in a $10 billion deal. And it's going to happen again. And I think it validates the exposure that we have in the regional banks. It's supported by not only strong momentum, but also the fundamentals are there as well. The overall environment you're getting, this clearing opportunity and the regulatory lift is probably the biggest catalyst. I think there's more to come.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I think there's a lot more to come. Because if you're sitting there, your bank CEO, and you think at some point in your future you want to acquire another bank, you've got the most, you know, accommodating regulate regulatory landscape than you've had in like as, as long, as far back as any of us can remember. So you can strike now while you can, because you don't know what the next administration's going to be.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, but I still think it's a lot. But I still think it's unpredictable to which deals can get done. And yes, you're. Which can't. Yeah, the parameters, I don't think it's the. The Runway is as long as people expected coming into the year in terms of the ease of getting deals done.

[Steve Weiss]

It's all relative. So, yeah, you're not going to be able to announce any deal and then it's automatically done, but it's just much more accommodating it's ever been. So you're going to be willing to roll the dice now, more so than you were during the last four or.

[Scott Wapner]

Five, but there's no guarantee of that either. You have Citizens First, Citizens Huntington M&T.

[Joe Terranova]

Regent Synchrony, US Bank Extension of exposure. I think, look, a lot of the deals are going to happen in the private market as well, not just in the publicly traded companies. It's very difficult, you know, for someone to come on and say, okay, we think specifically this regional bank is going to be the next target in M and A. That's pure speculation. So the best thing I could share with the viewers is to try and own a basket of the regional banks or maybe on your own, gather five or six regional banks that you feel really good about their revenue growth potential and where they are from a momentum perspective, put them in a basket and own them over the coming six to nine months. I think you'd be rewarded.

[Scott Wapner]

This is probably why, correct me if I'm wrong, the Russell is outperforming today, has a large number of regional banks, obviously. So if they're all up figuring, well, who's next, then maybe you're going to get a continued lift in that part of the market. In terms of the banks themselves, you do have earnings right around the corner. JPM target to 349 from 315. Bank of America to 66 from 59. You own JPM. You still own bank of America?

[Steve Weiss]

Yes, I do.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you think about that one here?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, look, I mean, but it's the one that people don't like to talk about for whatever reason, you know, Goldman obviously is a large position. Me, Bank America not nearly the size, but it's still got great management. It still has great participation in the critical markets, particularly investment banking and wealth management. So. So I still like it. You know, it's funny, I debate buying more, which here's my debate. Do I buy Citi and start a new position that because James Frazier is doing a great job or do I buy more B of A? I don't know the answer I'm close to coming to.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean if you look at the city chart one could say that you should have done that many, many, many months ago, right?

[Steve Weiss]

Without a doubt. I should listen to Farmer Jim Farmer.

[Scott Wapner]

Look at that year to date up 40%.

[Joe Terranova]

You should have listened to Farmer Jim. But the other side of it is since probably the third week of September the money center banks have not been trading well. This just clear however if you believe that they there's further downside ahead. You need to have confirmation in what would be a weaker earnings report than is anticipated And I think you got that would be somewhat a surprise to the market because the trading revenue is going to be strong, the advisory fee activity is going to be strong. So investment banking is going to be strong and you're going to continue to hear about them. Unlock unlocking capital on the balance sheet to either put into R and D or return to shareholders.

[Scott Wapner]

What about payments and Fintech today Klarna we can take a look at those shares to get us into the conversation initiated by today several firms doing that on growing its tam attractive valuation relative to its competitor Affirm we can look at that. There you go. There are the two stocks. It just brings us to a couple of calls in the payments space American Express and Capital One. The price targets go at Barclays higher Amex to 336 cap one to 257. MasterCard goes to 660. And you own all these stocks?

[Joe Terranova]

I do. The Discover Capital deal obviously a very strong deal that fortifies two balance sheets together into a very strong entity. American Express is really the representation of the fluid consumer remaining remarkably strong now again American Express has kind of participated in what has been a little bit of end of September weakness. If you want to play along with that you've got to get the confirmation on the other side in earnings. And I don't know if we're really going to see those troubling signs in the upcoming earnings report for American Express.

[Scott Wapner]

The last thing I wanted to hit Anastasia, we can start with you on this is the fact that you know obviously Japan is having a just a massive day. Yeah, it's going to be a new record close. Looks like they're going to get a new prime minister. US stocks are underperforming the rest of the world by the most since 2009. US stocks underperforming the world by the most since 09. We're up 14 and a half percent on the S&P 500. Hong Kong is up 34 to give you an idea, China 29, Mexico 25, Canada 24, Germany 23 and so on. JP Morgan upgrading European equities today to overweight and Citi upgrading emerging markets to overweight as well. What's your thought on this?

[Anastasia Amoroso]

Well, it's an interesting timing for an upgrade of European equities given what's going on with this renewed uncertainty in France. But I will say I will agree with that view because although France tends to be a more domestic economy with not as many spillovers to the rest of the Eurozone, what I like in Europe is there's tremendous fiscal stimulus that's coming out of Germany unlike we haven't seen in years past. And not only is it coming from the government in terms of actually running a deficit, but it's also coming from the private sector. We hear in a tremendous commitment from German corporates, for example, to invest not only in Germany but elsewhere in the Eurozone. So I think that's really supportive, Scott. And you combine that with ECB rates at 2%, the financing terms are more attractive in Europe. So I would agree with that call. Having said that not abandoning the United States and certainly a day doesn't make a trend.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Steve Weiss]

You know, look, the United States is always going to be the leading market. Just depends on the time frame because we've got the broadest offering of, of stocks, we've got the most technology which drives the market. So I'm not willing to abandon it. I still haven't made my move into Baba.

[Scott Wapner]

Not abandoned, but I mean the thought that the rest of the world could be the outperformer for the remainder of the year is not an insignificant thing to consider.

[Steve Weiss]

Right. But, but here's the deal, at least with me, and I'm sure others are in this boat as well, I'm fully invested. So in order to make that bet, I've got to liquidate positions or partial positions and pay taxes on it. That's just the practicality of it. And I don't see a sustainable move in, in the foreign markets as I continue to do in the compounders that I own.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, a block in the books. Coming up, our call today we have a battle is a battleground in Netflix now another firms weighing in on this stock today we will discuss when we come back foreign.

[Joe Terranova]

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Janice Henderson]

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[Scott Wapner]

Foreign let's do some calls of the day. Netflix is interesting. Okay. I feel like this stock has suddenly become a battleground name. It's pacing for its sixth consecutive down day. Okay. It's the worst streak since January and Wolf is out today defending it. Somebody was out defending, defending it late last week. They say that today buy the stock, not the angst. What do you think, Weiss?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, you know, look, I've read some of the negative comments on it and I just don't think there's a. There, there's still a leader in space. They'll continue to be the leader and I just don't understand the concerns, frankly. But it has weighed on. I think part of it is, is people reallocating Netflix. What they've seen there, which even stalled before it started correcting and saying, look, we can get some juice elsewhere. So that's it. I've also been out there defending. It's been my final trade at least once over the last few weeks that hasn't worked out, but I'm sticking with it. I just don't think the model is broken at all or being damaged.

[Scott Wapner]

They say with a sustainable relative price to earnings, investors stand against good chance of earnings earning 12 month returns near EPS growth, which we see greater than 20% right here and now. We're buyers. That's From Wolf today, what do you think about this call? What do you think about the way the stocks traded?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, you and I have spoken about the way the stock has traded since the end of June. That was the peak stock for the third quarter, basically ran sideways to lower. I continue to inject Spotify in there because they seem to be trading like cousins within the market for whatever reason. But ultimately it's getting a little bit frustrating because as I continue to defend the story and the analyst community continues to defend the story, you're seeing a breakdown in the momentum. That's just reality. That's what's happening now. Paul Tudor Jones talked about the value of the 200 day moving average this morning on the network. Okay. Well, Netflix is getting uncomfortably close to that 200 day moving average. It does 1094. It's not sitting that far above it. So I'm becoming a little bit more concerned than I have been over the last several weeks in continually defending the fundamentals. We know it's a very strong fundamental story, but now price and the technicals look like they're breaking down.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Parker Hannifin Target today to 840. That's at Wells Fargo. You have that one in the Jyoti.

[Joe Terranova]

Industrial aerospace derivative play actually like helmet HWM a little bit better. Both of those companies are benefiting from being multinationals. Halmet a little bit more at 50%. Parker Hannifin at 40%. Both of these stocks in the portfolio doing remarkably well. A little bit more of an uptick on howmet.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, TKO target goes to 230 from 190 at Bernstein. That's you as well.

[Joe Terranova]

Purchased this at the end of July. We've got a little bit of a lead on the story. Upcoming earnings are going to be critical here. When you look at the ufc, comps are somewhat difficult. The other side of it, WWE looking for a strong quarter here. Recent announcement with the deal with espn, that should be a favorable one as well. Near a high. Let the stock work for you and continue to move higher.

[Scott Wapner]

Wolf. Sorry. Well, why did I say Wolf? That was from earlier. Zoom added to the top picks list with a 110 target at Rosenblatt. You own that both personally and in the in the Jyoti.

[Joe Terranova]

Not smiling over it either because it really hasn't worked out particularly well. The reasons behind the entry were a very strong rally in 2024 and it reached its peak point at that point and it really hasn't accelerated since then. It's been moving sideways to lower. This is not A growth story. You think about what growth was. Growth was.

[Steve Weiss]

And zoom.

[Joe Terranova]

Years ago, you could make that strong robust growth argument. You can't make that anymore. You're talking about low single digit revenue growth for this company. Why do you own it October 31st?

[Scott Wapner]

No, no, no. You own it personally. So you don't have the parameters of the.

[Joe Terranova]

Look, I've said this on air. Sometimes I feel uncomfortable knowing when there's an upcoming rebalance myself liquidating something that potentially could get liquidated from the etf. I'd rather it get liquidated from the ETF and then I'll act.

[Scott Wapner]

You have a broader, longer view. Can we look at that again? What you're talking about the sideways trade of zoom. Yeah, there it is.

[Joe Terranova]

So you'll see the big run up. August 24th to November of 24 is.

[Scott Wapner]

A whole lot of nowhere since you pull that the winter.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah. Can we pull that back maybe two years? We pull that back a little bit. There you go, Scott. Look at that. So that's August of 24 to November of 24. And that is what everyone is reacting as. So when the calendar rolls forward and you lose that 12 month calendar time frame, you lose that. That's no longer a callous. And now if you roll that chart forward, you're going to see to your point, it looks like a whole lot of nowhere, which is where the frustration.

[Scott Wapner]

What about doordash overweight, Morgan Stanley today, the Jyoti owns. That's an all time high today for that name.

[Joe Terranova]

Number one consumer discretionary holding that we have strongly correlated to what we've seen in the growth of Uber. They have dominant market share. It's interesting, you know, my son's up in Danbury, Connecticut playing hockey. He needed a vacuum last night. DoorDash within 45 minutes.

[Scott Wapner]

Nice.

[Steve Weiss]

Uber, by the way, is about to break, break through 100, which has been resistant. So I think once it does that, it'll just keep moving.

[Scott Wapner]

Nice to know he's got cleaning up after himself.

[Steve Weiss]

Did he order it or did you order it?

[Joe Terranova]

I ordered the vacuum and he had to call me to ask how to put it together.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, all right. The headlines with Julia Boorstin. Hi, Julia.

[Steve Weiss]

Hey, Scott.

[Julia Boorstin]

While voting on California's measure to redraw the state's congressional districts is underway. The proposal could add as many as five seats for the Democrats in Congress, which could blunt efforts in Texas and Missouri to add Republicans Republican seats in the 2026 midterm elections. The Supreme Court rejected right wing conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer's appeal today to take up her lawsuit against Metta and Twitter. Bloomer argued to the top court that the company has, quote, stifled her ability to run for office. The prominent right wing influencer and President Trump ally accused the social media platforms of violating racketeering laws by de platforming her when she ran for Congress in in 2020 and 2022. And authorities in South Carolina are investigating a fire at the home of a circuit court judge and a former Democratic state senator. First responders say three people were injured in Saturday's blaze on an island about 50 miles south of Charleston. Investigators are still trying to determine the cause. Back over to you.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Julia, thanks. Coming up, your ETF Edge Gold closing in on $4,000 would be the first time ever. Of course, it's a new record high today and we are inching closer up better than 50% year to date. How much upside is really left? We'll debate that next.

[Janice Henderson]

Julia Boorstin sits down with Thrive Global founder and CEO Arianna Huffington.

[Julia Boorstin]

What advice would you give to young people now trying to navigate this crazy world? My advice is to pick a time at the end of the day that you declare as the end of your working day, because let's face it, there.

[Steve Weiss]

Is no end to our working day.

[Janice Henderson]

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and power players. Listen now, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Scott Wapner]

We are back. Gold, as we said, another record high today. Our next guest, though, says there's a better medal to play right now. Seema Modi tells us which one in today's etf.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

I seem to Scott, October, as you know, is a historically volatile month for the markets to kick off the fourth quarter.

[Janice Henderson]

On top of that, we've got the.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

Government shutdown going into the second week. Should ETF investors hedge now or simply take a longer view? I'm pleased to say we're joined by Christian Magoo, CEO of Amplify ETFs. And Christian, we've seen a volatile month thus far, but you're more optimistic about markets going into the end of this year. Tell us why.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, that's right. Since 1950, if you look at Q4, 80% of the time, it's actually been positive and Its return of 4% is more than double the other quarters of the year. So October is a historical month, but we think looking out at the long term, the quarter, there's a lot of opportunity.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

So what do you make of the move in gold all time highs nearing 4000. With that said, I believe you think there's another metal that is a better play. Tell us what that is.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, we think it's silver and specifically the silver mining companies. So when you look at silver, it has store of value as well as industrial usage. Junior silver miners SILJ R ETF has outperformed silver. Silver's up 62% roughly this year. Junior silver up 130% this year. Those mining stocks have that leverage. Remember, it's not just a store of value. It's also industrial use for AI chips, batteries and solar panels and data centers as well.

[Scott Wapner]

That's right.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

Christian, thank you. We're going to continue the conversation [e-mail], christian will be joined by Jay Jacobs, US head of equity ETFs at BlackRock. Scott, back to you.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Seema, thanks so much. Coming up next, the struggling sector just had its best week in some three years. And now one of the Street's top technicians says this breakout feels different. We'll discuss next. All right, we're back. Health care coming off its best week since June of 2022. Now BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky looks at that turn and says the breakout feels like different. Maybe it feels different this time. The large cap health care etf, it's the XLV best five day gain. What do we think? Joe, you have a pretty good amount of exposure here. We had the the Pfizer deal announced and that led to a lot of good feeling in this space for the first time in a long time. Those, you know, reasons to be more.

[Joe Terranova]

Bullish overall now led me to buy Merck have a new position.

[Scott Wapner]

Last week we did.

[Joe Terranova]

Happy to have that. I also have McKesson, I think at.

[Scott Wapner]

Some point the Boston Scientific Intuitive Surgical Synchro Stryker, on and on and on.

[Joe Terranova]

I think at some point the market turns towards quality. When you look at factors, this year has been about momentum. I think it's going to turn to quality. I think that's going to take the market directly towards health care. So I am looking to build exposure. I did that by buying Merck. I am now going to tell you that I am going to go back to the well once again. I'm going to try it once again and buy the xbi. On the close today, I will buy the xbi. I will have a very wide stop on this, which means you have to size it accordingly. I'm probably going to risk here all the way down to about 92. The stock is 103. So I'm not going to buy a lot of this because I want to make sure I leave myself the room for the opportunity. Opportunity. I think over the next six to nine months you're in the midst of a multi year breakout here in the xpi. That's a trade I'm going to be putting on in addition to that. On Thursday, Josh spoke about Veeva Systems. That is a health care name. Keep that in mind. It's technology based but it's a health care name. We own it in the etf. I'm looking at joining Josh in that position and buying it personally as well.

[Steve Weiss]

I personally think health care is broken. To me health care resembles the goes everything. No, no, no.

[Scott Wapner]

I think, I think drugs are the whole point.

[Steve Weiss]

I think drugs are okay, I think biotech be okay. But the rest the old establishment. We're at a similar point in time with health care that we were in technology when the Internet came along and we sort of disintermediated the old line companies like the Oracles back then, like the dell, like the IBM's and it's taken a while for them to recover. So health care is a broken system and when system's broken, the ones that will survive and thrive will be companies like Veeva that are the technology companies that will create models. Look, you're going to value based care, which is a complete risk model. Shifting the risk from the government and from others to the practices. So we heard from UnitedHealth, the leader in the system that you know that it's broken through their earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

Why do you, why do you still own that stock?

[Steve Weiss]

Because it's got. So I can't tell you why I still own it. Right now it's up 40% since I bought it.

[Scott Wapner]

Good answer.

[Steve Weiss]

So when the momentum dies, that's when.

[Joe Terranova]

I'll get out of it.

[Steve Weiss]

I may get out some before but I think it's now kind of expensive. But the point is, is that they're going to cut back on services and they have been already. Some insurance plans don't offer pain, they don't offer epidurals anymore. They've cut them out. So you see a major resetting of the table that will continue. So you want to be in the technology companies.

[Joe Terranova]

2 Responses to that first, can. Can we acknowledge there probably could be a bifurcation when we say health care investing? There could be an opportunity.

[Steve Weiss]

I just said that.

[Joe Terranova]

Let me finish. If you go to. You did with viva. But if you look at the xpi, right. XPI is a great example of if we're in an environment where yields are pressed lower, we're In a search for yield environment, we're seeking opportunity in places that have been unappealing in the last several. I just said that rebuilding, I just.

[Steve Weiss]

Said pharma and biotech should do okay. Pharma will be tougher because the bigger companies have to have to find new drugs.

[Joe Terranova]

So the second, the second response to that would be, do you not believe that what happened with Pfizer in the administration, because it's the reason I bought Merck was a clearing event for Big Pharma itself where others could walk into the Oval Office and make the deal with the president.

[Steve Weiss]

They can. But we don't know what the profitability is going to be ultimately. We just don't know. And health care was so ignored and so beaten up, it needed a catalyst. But that catalyst is accurate in terms of improving the prospects? Nobody knows, including Pfizer.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

I think that's a really interesting point, is we don't know where the profitability is going to be for large pharmaceutical companies. I agree with you, Joe. We have had a clearing event. I think that's why pharma looks to be investable again. But if you look at the growth, for example, in, you know, just new drug discovery, it's actually, it takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of dollars and the payoff is not always there. So for example, we at Partners Group in private markets prefer to invest in contract research organizations, for example, that supply all the services to all the pharmaceutical companies as well as biotech who make that discovery possible. But we don't take the binary drug risk itself, the molecule risk, and the same goes for biotech. Joe, I agree it could be a great trade if you have yields move, move lower. But as you know, you can have an up 50% day or a down 70% day, depending on how that trial goes. So really approach that one with care. The last thing I'll say on health care, medtech is a fuel that's really interesting for us. And one of the companies that we recently invested in does 3D printing for orthopedic implants. And everyone is custom, so why not use 3D and AI to do that?

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Mike Santoli, he's next with his midday work. Our senior markets commentator, Mike Poole. Santol is back with us at the desk and we are so happy to have you back.

[Michael Santoli]

Good to be back.

[Scott Wapner]

So you want to weigh in on Paul Tudor Jones along with the AMD deal and you know how some are characterizing some of the activity that's taking place in the deal making part of this Whole mania.

[Michael Santoli]

I mean the ingredients are important place they have been for a while for some kind of acceleration higher where it basically just is, is go, go. It's not zero sum. It's everything goes up low quality, high quality in this theme. And then it becomes disorderly and then it becomes more fragile. I was just looking the three year trailing return of the NASDAQ composite right now 28% annually. It was exactly 28% annually at the end of 1998. Okay, that's just magnitude of return. In 1999 the composite went up 85%, went up 130% in the next 15 months. And then three years later you were down from year 98 levels. I don't think deterministically, I don't think that we are destined to repeat these things. But it's just for framing in terms of how far we've come. And then if things get truly crazy and wild, I think what we first have to do for going to 99 is get back to 2021. We don't even have 2021 yet. In terms of truly speculative IPO stuff, SPAC stuff, it's getting there. I think the numbers are so huge, they're getting scary. In terms of trillions literally being committed by a company that doesn't have the trillions. That's got to be sorted out here. I mean, I'm tempted to say it's an everything rally, except 55% of all stocks in the New York Stock Exchange are down right now, as is the Dow. So it's funny how it's kind of like revving the engine for something like that. But I don't think you should just bank on it safe until we get there.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Good way of putting it. I'll see you in a couple hours. On the belt, that's Michael Santoli. We'll do finals next. All right. Three o' clock Eastern closing bell. We told you Ed Yardeni raised his price target on the S and P. You will hear from him on our program. Dan Ives on the AMD deal. What it really means for investors. Video. Sherry Paul, Mira Pandit. Michelle Ross. Apropos to our biotech conversation. Well, she's a leading fund manager in that space, so we'll kick it all around. I hope you'll join me in a couple of hours. Weiss, your final trade today is what?

[Steve Weiss]

Look, it's been a great couple of weeks for Bitcoin, so I'm going with the ibit. I think momentum definitely continues here.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Record high today, as we said, at the top of the program along with gold yet again.

[Anastasia Amoroso]

Anastasia Financials it's been a stellar quarter for M and A and IPO activity. I think the banks will benefit and rate cuts should help loan growth as well.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, earnings coming up and Jyoti Mosaic.

[Joe Terranova]

Keep your eye on that one. It looks like we've got a little bit of a multi month breakout unfolding.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, S&P 500 good for 25, extending its record high. We'll see where it goes at three. I'll see you there. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always get. Catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Janice Henderson]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer Julia Boorstin sits down with Thrive Global founder and CEO Arianna Huffington.

[Julia Boorstin]

What advice would you give to young people now trying to navigate this crazy world? My advice is to pick a time at the end of the day that you declare as the end of your working day. Because, let's face it, there is no.

[Steve Weiss]

End to our working day.

[Janice Henderson]

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power players. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.