CNBC’s Halftime Report: Debate on The Best Trades Right Now (Released July 2, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner, CNBC’s Halftime Report delves into the heart of today’s market dynamics with top investors providing insights and setting the trading agenda for the rest of the day. In this episode, the panel debates the most promising trades in the current market landscape, touching upon growth versus value stocks, the potential rebound of Apple, mega-cap stock performances, the banking sector, and retail favorites like Robinhood.

Market Overview

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by providing a snapshot of today’s market movements. Despite a mixed performance—with the Dow briefly turning red but stabilizing near a flat line—there's an overarching sentiment of stability. Wapner mentions key developments, including President Trump’s deal with Vietnam and RBC's Lori Calvacina’s observation that Brent oil prices are beginning to feel “full” from various vantage points.

Growth vs. Value Stocks

Brin's Perspective on Growth Stocks: Brin expresses concerns about the relentless surge in growth stocks, citing platforms like Robinhood, Palantir, and Spotify. At [02:09], he states:

“I feel like there’s been so much ebullition there. You want to see the value names be able to move up more than just one day yesterday because those are the have nots.”

He anticipates a shift post the passing of a new bill, expecting value stocks to gain traction as growth stocks may have reached an overextended position.

Joe Terranova on Market Momentum: Joe Terranova emphasizes the loss of momentum as a critical factor, noting:

“I often say that the momentum factor is one of the better factors in providing the evidence that we are in the midst of a very strong bull market.” ([03:20])

He also highlights concerns about rising bond yields and potential shifts in the bond market's control, suggesting a possible sideways to downward trend for the quarter.

Apple’s Potential Rebound and AI Strategy

Debating Apple’s Stock Performance: The panel scrutinizes Apple’s recent stock performance, especially its 16% decline year-to-date despite a recent uptick. Scott Wapner brings up Apple’s upgrade from Jefferies:

“Apple is up near 2% and it did get upgraded today.” ([04:10])

Bryn Talkington on Apple’s AI Moves: Bryn discusses the optimism surrounding Apple’s integration with third-party AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI:

“If they give up the internal ability to create Apple intelligence... I think that would be fantastic for the stock.” ([05:01])

He believes this strategic move could rejuvenate Apple’s stock by enhancing Siri’s capabilities and leveraging external AI advancements.

Kevin Simpson’s Insights: Kevin concurs on the importance of AI, noting Apple’s historical lag in innovation:

“They're always late because they don't innovate. So they wait for somebody else to innovate and then they copy it.” ([06:02])

He advocates for Apple to acquire AI innovators like Perplexity to secure a competitive edge.

Brin’s Skepticism on Innovation: Brin remains cautious, arguing that Apple’s move to adopt foldable phones—mirroring Samsung’s technology—is more of a replication than true innovation:

“I think they are in that somewhat of a quandary of this is a late-stage company that really needs to innovate.” ([07:36])

He stresses the necessity for Apple to pursue groundbreaking innovations beyond hardware replication to achieve sustainable growth.

Mega Cap Stocks Debate

Best Performing Mega Caps: When posed with the question, “What is going to be the best performing mega-cap name over the next six months?”, panelists offer varied opinions:

• Joe Terranova selects Nvidia, highlighting its pivotal role in AI and data centers.

• Bryn Talkington opts for Amazon, praising its diversified ventures from Prime and advertising to robotics and satellites.

• Brin also advocates for Nvidia, envisioning a price target of $200 if the market continues to rally.

Kevin Simpson on Overvaluation: Kevin cautions against Nvidia’s valuation:

“I think it’s overvalued.” ([17:43])

However, he supports Meta (formerly Facebook) for its substantial investments in AI, suggesting it will continue to yield dividends despite potential overvaluation.

Bryn’s Take on Amazon: Bryn counters by expressing confidence in Amazon’s comprehensive business model:

“It's a very diversified company... led by delivery convenience which are on par with anyone in consumer.” ([17:27])

Banking Sector Insights

Strong Performance of Major Banks: The discussion shifts to the banking sector, with a focus on major players like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. Joe Terranova notes:

“I think all of these money center banks are in the sweet spot.” ([20:52])

Dividends and Buybacks: Panelist Bryn highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant dividend hike:

“They raised their dividend by 33%... That's very powerful.” ([21:33])

While acknowledging the positive aspects, Kevin Simpson points out regulatory uncertainties and their impact on bank stocks:

“The story is the same as it was when their target was 700... they have to get through the uncertainty of tariffs.” ([22:05])

Robinhood and Other Retail Stocks

Robinhood’s Momentum: Robinhood emerges as a standout performer, with its stock hitting new highs. Brin attributes this surge to innovations in finance and potential inclusion in the S&P 500:

“This company can continue to... eat all of the custodians' lunch as their innovation.” ([23:19])

Tariff Challenges for Retailers: The panel discusses the impact of tariffs on retailers like Walmart and Ross Stores. Joe Terranova explains:

“They have a challenge because they don’t want to pass through the cost to you and me. They want to eat the cost and that is going to eat into margin.” ([30:17])

Kevin Simpson adds that technological advancements, such as dark stores and automation, will mitigate some of these challenges by reducing labor costs and theft.

Final Trades and Recommendations

Highlighted Trades: The experts conclude with their top trade recommendations:

• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Brin suggests a bullish stance as the stock breaks resistance levels ([46:22]).

• Caterpillar: Joe Terranova and Kevin Simpson advocate for holding, emphasizing ongoing engagement and customer relations ([46:35]).

• Amgen: Noted for breaking above the 200-day moving average, signaling potential upward momentum ([46:40]).

Headlines and Closing Remarks

In the final segment, Brin shares global headlines, including Netanyahu’s call for the elimination of Hamas, the Dalai Lama’s remarks, and Netflix’s record-breaking “Squid Games” final season. The episode wraps up with a nod to upcoming segments and additional market analyses.

Notable Quotes:

• Brin on Growth vs. Value:
  “I feel like there’s been so much ebullition there. You want to see the value names be able to move up more than just one day yesterday because those are the have nots.” ([02:09])

• Joe Terranova on Market Momentum:
  “I often say that the momentum factor is one of the better factors in providing the evidence that we are in the midst of a very strong bull market.” ([03:20])

• Bryn Talkington on Apple’s AI Strategy:
  “If they give up the internal ability to create Apple intelligence... I think that would be fantastic for the stock.” ([05:01])

• Kevin Simpson on Apple's Innovation:
  “They're always late because they don't innovate. So they wait for somebody else to innovate and then they copy it.” ([06:02])

• Brin on Apple’s Innovation:
  “I think they are in that somewhat of a quandary of this is a late-stage company that really needs to innovate.” ([07:36])

• Joe Terranova on Major Banks:
  “I think all of these money center banks are in the sweet spot.” ([20:52])

• Bryn Talkington on Goldman Sachs’ Dividend:
  “They raised their dividend by 33%... That's very powerful.” ([21:33])

• Joe Terranova on Tariff Challenges:
  “They have a challenge because they don’t want to pass through the cost to you and me. They want to eat the cost and that is going to eat into margin.” ([30:17])

Conclusion

This episode of Halftime Report provides a comprehensive debate on the best trades amid current market conditions. The panelists offer diverse perspectives on growth versus value stocks, the strategic moves of tech giants like Apple, the resilience of major banks, and the evolving landscape of retail stocks. Their insights equip traders and investors with nuanced viewpoints to navigate the complexities of today’s financial markets.