CNBC’s Halftime Report: Dow Heads for Worst April since 1932 (Released April 22, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner

Introduction

In the April 22, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner teams up with top investors—Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Rob Seach, and Jim Labenthal—to dissect the tumultuous state of the stock market. The panel delves into the Dow's precarious position, economic uncertainties, the ongoing trade tensions with China, and the potential actions of the Federal Reserve. This detailed summary captures the essence of their discussions, enriched with notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

Market Overview

Scott Wapner [03:09]: "We're dealing with a bear market rally. The market is walking like a duck, talking like a duck, it's a duck."

The Dow is teetering on the brink of its worst April performance since 1932, influenced by a confluence of factors including a rebounding stock sector, a strengthening dollar, and declining bond yields. Despite a modest bounce, the overall sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative, with significant portions of major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing notable declines year-to-date.

Key Drivers Affecting the Market

Rob Seach [08:12]: "A lot of people are unaware of the provenance of that idea [Waiting for Godot]. We might get resolution with one country, but continue to battle with another."

The panel identifies key elements influencing the current market dynamics:

1. Stock Rebound: A temporary bounce in stocks, driven by oversold conditions, but lacking fundamental support.
2. Dollar Strength & Bond Yields: The dollar is up while bond yields are down, creating a complex backdrop for investors.
3. Trade Tensions: Ongoing tariff disputes, particularly with China, continue to cast a shadow over market prospects.

Trade War with China

Scott Wapner [03:09]: "At the very moment that the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, has told... that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable."

Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, as reported by Bloomberg, suggest a potential de-escalation in the tariff war with China. This development has introduced a glimmer of optimism, though negotiations have yet to commence publicly.

Stephanie Link [04:14]: "We do know that we're going to get through this."

The panel remains cautiously optimistic that clarity will emerge from the trade discussions, potentially providing the necessary catalyst to stabilize and uplift the market.

Economic Indicators and Future Outlook

Jim Labenthal [12:45]: "The odds of a recession have definitely increased."

Concerns about the broader economic landscape are prevalent. Indicators such as the Chicago Fed’s survey paint a grim picture, highlighting weaknesses in both services and manufacturing sectors. Additionally, earnings estimates are falling short of expectations, with only 68% of companies surpassing projections—the lowest rate in recent times.

Josh Brown [06:55]: "If the labor market starts to fall in a big way, then Katy, bar the door because that is the most important piece."

The labor market remains a critical factor. While unemployment rates are low, the strength of job growth is under scrutiny. Inflation is easing, yet its trajectory and impact on wage growth continue to influence consumer sentiment and spending.

Fed Policy Discussion

The Federal Reserve’s stance is a central topic of debate. The panel explores the implications of potential rate cuts and the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining employment.

Josh Brown [15:08]: "They think they are restrictive and they are actually restrictive."

Stephanie Link [15:34]: "If the Fed cuts, it'd be idiotic and I think that would be viewed as negative."

The consensus among the panelists is skepticism towards the Fed implementing emergency rate cuts. Such moves are perceived as negative signals, indicating deeper economic troubles rather than providing the desired stimulus.

Jim Labenthal [16:06]: "Things are falling apart. So I don't think we need emergency rate cuts."

The panel emphasizes that the Fed should focus on fundamental economic indicators rather than reactive measures to transient market sentiments.

Earnings Season Insights

Scott Wapner [04:45]: "More downside strategists. The decline in the percentage of companies beating estimates is the lowest rate in some time."

Earnings season presents a mixed bag. While some companies show resilience, the overall trend points towards underperformance relative to expectations. The weak dollar is mitigating some tariff pressures, but the general outlook remains cautious.

Josh Brown [06:55]: "Only 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported so far. It's way too early to call the game at this point in time."

With a significant portion of earnings reports still pending, definitive conclusions remain elusive. However, early indicators suggest a challenging environment for businesses navigating tariff impacts and economic headwinds.

Specific Stock Analyses

The panel scrutinizes various high-profile stocks, assessing their performance and future prospects amidst the current market volatility.

• Tesla:

  Rob Seach [22:09]: "If people get too negative or auto sales from Europe and Asia are not as dire as the street thinks, the stock could bounce 20, 30 points."

  Despite Tesla’s substantial drop, the panel acknowledges potential rebound opportunities if underlying automotive sales stabilize.

• Apple:

  Jim Labenthal [24:49]: "Retail investors love this stock... there is a strong amount of sentiment."

  Apple remains a favored stock with strong retail investor support and solid fundamental drivers, suggesting potential for upward movement.

• UnitedHealth:

  Josh Brown [30:05]: "It's still the number one managed care company in the industry with a very strong balance sheet."

  Despite recent downgrades and stock declines, UnitedHealth’s robust management and financials indicate resilience, though margin pressures persist.

• McDonald's:

  Rob Seach [31:28]: "McDonald's is like one of America's greatest exports... this stock is about to break out."

  Viewed as a defensive stock, McDonald’s is poised for potential gains driven by strong performance and global presence.

• Uber:

  Rob Seach [28:54]: "If what they were alleging was true and then the product changed. That's possible, but I don't think that the marketing practices here were deceptive."

  Uber faces legal challenges but remains confident in its business practices and regulatory standing.

Exclusive Interview with James Gorman

A highlight of the episode is the exclusive interview with James Gorman, chairman of Disney and advisor to General Atlantic.

Leslie Picker [35:36]: "Do you agree with that [Bessant’s comments] and do you think that the way things are going are unsustainable as it pertains to the economy?"

James Gorman [36:17]: "Tariffs are generally inflationary... it's very difficult to know the impact on global trade and what that does to the global economy."

Gorman discusses the intricate relationship between tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s policies. He underscores the uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics and their potential recessionary impacts.

Leslie Picker [37:15]: "What do you think the overall impact of this tariff uncertainty will be on multinational companies?"

James Gorman [37:24]: "It's too early to say whether we end up in a recession, but tariffs have significant inflationary effects and influence Fed behavior."

Gorman emphasizes the challenges multinational companies face amid tariff uncertainties, highlighting the potential for both operational disruptions and strategic recalibrations.

Conclusions

The Halftime Report panel paints a picture of a market at a crossroads. While temporary rebounds provide brief optimism, underlying economic weaknesses and geopolitical tensions, particularly the trade war with China, keep the Dow on a precarious trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to policy adjustments further complicates the outlook. Investors are advised to stay vigilant, avoid reacting impulsively to short-term market movements, and focus on long-term fundamentals amid this period of heightened volatility.

Final Words from Scott Wapner [47:05]: "Start Streaming. Go to cnbc.com stream now."

Notable Quotes

• Scott Wapner [03:09]: "We're dealing with a bear market rally."
• Jim Labenthal [12:45]: "The odds of a recession have definitely increased."
• Josh Brown [15:08]: "They think they are restrictive and they are actually restrictive."
• Rob Seach [28:54]: "Uber looks like they're going to stand their ground and they think they have a winning case."
• James Gorman [36:17]: "Tariffs are generally inflationary and it's very difficult to know the impact on global trade."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions from the Halftime Report episode, providing valuable insights for both regular listeners and those seeking to understand the current market landscape.