CNBC Halftime Report: "Earnings and the War Guide the Market"

Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Brin Palantir
Main Themes: Market resilience amid global conflict, rotation between growth and value stocks, the role of earnings, energy and geopolitics, and key stock calls.

Episode Overview

In this action-packed episode, Scott Wapner and the investment committee dissect how markets are navigating a volatile environment defined by ongoing war in the Middle East, a U.S.-instigated naval blockade of Iran, oil price uncertainties, and the launch of a new earnings season. The discussion focuses heavily on the market's resilience, why investors are looking past geopolitical risks to earnings, and what the latest sector rotations and market signals mean for positioning now.

1. Market Sentiment: Resilience versus Complacency

Timestamps: 00:59–09:24

• Scott Wapner summarizes the upbeat tone in analyst notes:

  "The plethora of notes that are out today... are like 90% skewed positive." (01:11)

• Joe Terranova explains why institutional, systematic, and retail investors are positioned defensively or neutrally—but this defensive stance paradoxically supports market resilience as buying power eventually returns:

  "The systematic community, they are basically carrying a neutral bias, which means they have limited exposure... that setup is one of the reasons why you have the resiliency in front of you right now..." (02:24)

• Stephanie Link ties resilience to the strong U.S. consumer and labor market and warns against waiting for certainty:

  "If you wait for certainty, you're going to miss some of the easy money to be made." (04:24)

• The panel acknowledges skepticism—are they simply "too complacent"? Jim Laventhal insists that key financial indicators like high yield spreads have improved, and that many economic fundamentals are stronger than headlines suggest.

  "When you lift the hood and really look at the pieces of the fundamental engine, there are things that are going right in addition to earnings." (06:22–08:51)

Memorable Moment:
Stephanie Link highlights the unusual rotation in styles:

"Year to date, the Russell 1000 value is up 5 and the Russell 1000 growth is down 5. And there has been a massive rotation, almost liquidation in growth, especially software..." (04:24)

2. Geopolitics and Energy Markets

Timestamps: 06:22–10:55

• Jim Laventhal digs into the impact of the Hormuz blockade and rebalances in crude oil prices, explaining why extreme moves have abated thanks to market "workarounds" and alternate supply routes.

• Brin Palantir notes the strategic effects of the U.S. blockade and links it to U.S.-China relations, suggesting that China’s dependence on Iranian oil gives the U.S. leverage:

  "If we have a full blockade, then that prevents that. And... I think that China can be the player here to end this because they do need that oil." (09:24)

• Despite the risks, panelists argue the market is digesting war news quickly and staying focused on earnings and interest rates.

3. Earnings Season: A Market Driver

Timestamps: 09:24–16:41

• Growth versus Value: The team debates whether recent outperformance in value stocks is set to reverse as growth tech bounces.

  "Micron and Nvidia are going to be 50% of the total growth this quarter in S&P earnings. So we're still very concentrated." —Brin Palantir (09:24)

• Stephanie Link’s Take:

  "Stocks follow profits on the way up and on the way down...I think this year is the same but maybe the makeup is a little bit different. It's broader because the economy is doing right." (13:00)

• Joe Terranova and Stephanie Link analyze the compression in tech stock valuations and its implications, citing Apollo data showing that valuations are "back to pre-AI boom levels."

  "Valuations have compressed from 40 times to 20 times as a sector." (14:27–15:50)

• Industrial and Data Center Theme: The so-called "food chain" of data center infrastructure, power grid, and AI is driving gains in industrials and financials, further expanding the scope of this rally.

  "Industrials are benefiting, financials are benefiting. There's a lot of industries that are benefiting from that theme and that has only accelerated." —Stephanie Link (14:27)

4. Sector Spotlights and Stock Picks

Timestamps: 17:42–26:39

Financials (Goldman Sachs, Banks, Blackrock, Exchanges)

• Goldman Sachs: Strong quarter, particularly in equities and investment banking, despite FICC trading weakness.

  "Equity trading was ridiculously strong...Did anyone think that rates in mortgages was going to be the standout for Goldman Sachs?" —Joe Terranova (18:09)

• Stephanie Link expects good things from Morgan Stanley (19:41, 51:33) and highlights bank profitability metrics like ROTCE.
• Blackrock: Jim Laventhal added to his position, viewing the selloff as an overreaction and a long-term opportunity.

  "It's a call on BlackRock over the coming years having many pistons in its engine..." (21:51)

• Exchanges: Joe Terranova discusses opportunities in CBOE, ICE, and Interactive Brokers, citing persistent volatility.

  "Volatility, Scott, it's not going away." (20:48)

Tech & Software

• Oracle and Software Bounce: Oracle up on headlines, but Jim Laventhal attributes gains to valuation resets and improved credit conditions for software broadly (22:25).
• Debate on IGV (Software ETF):

  "If you're part of IGV unfortunately you're going to get lumped together." —Brin Palantir (24:30) "Palantir...needs to settle down...but they are the original AI company...great enterprise, they have great government contracts...buyers will come back in despite the valuations." (24:30)

• Cadence & Synopsys: Joe Terranova highlights these as software plays tied to semi design (26:06).
• Anthropic Exposure: Zoom, recently liquidated by Joe, is flagged as a public proxy for AI company Anthropic (26:05).

Consumer and Housing

• Starbucks: Stephanie Link outlines her turnaround thesis, focusing on culture and margin opportunity.

  "They can get to $4 in earnings power by 2028...operating margins back to 17, 18% over time." (29:50)

• Estee Lauder: Despite the market’s negative reaction to M&A rumors, she’s staying positive.
• Nike: Brin Palantir calls it a "falling knife" after a downgrade and a series of execution shortfalls, suggests moving on to better stories (32:12).
• Williams Sonoma: Joe says to watch the next earnings as e-commerce and home segments are key (33:07).

5. ETF Flows and Rotation Trends

Timestamps: 36:40–38:46

• Dominic Chu hosts ETF Edge with Christian Magoon (Amplify ETFs), discussing investors rotating out of tech and into hedged equity and energy amid ongoing war volatility.

  "Energy is the big winner this year sector wise." —Christian Magoon (37:51)

• Hedged Equity Popularity: Use of covered calls and dividends to cushion market swings (37:23).
• Crypto: Liquidity concerns and lack of legislative progress are keeping Bitcoin in a trading range (38:16).

6. Exclusive: President Trump on Iran, Blockade, and Geopolitics

Timestamps: 39:31–48:41

• Live pool feed with President Trump, who confirms the U.S. naval blockade of Iran has started, insists no nuclear deal means no deal at all, and details U.S. leverage in oil markets.

  "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Either we'll get it back from them or we'll take it." —President Trump (39:31)

• Trump emphasizes U.S. oil independence and says other countries may join the blockade, but U.S. capacity is enough.
• When pressed, he reiterates that if a ceasefire deal isn't reached, consequences for Iran "won't be pleasant" (43:07).
• He also touches on election fraud claims, Cuba, Letitia James, and a possible UFC event at the White House—exhibiting his usual boisterous tone.

  "You cannot have a nuclear Iran. Pope Leo would not be happy with the end result. You have hundreds of millions of people dead and it's not going to happen." (41:41)

• Panel reacts: Market moves higher following robust remarks and prospects of a deal (49:12).

7. Final Trades

Timestamps: 50:59–52:02

• Brin Palantir: CBRE, expecting a rebound after a dramatic selloff (50:59)
• Jim Laventhal: Takes a risk on Citigroup before earnings, arguing market wants it higher (51:09)
• Stephanie Link: Morgan Stanley on strong earnings outlook, 2.5% yield, excess capital (51:33)
• Joe Terranova: XBI/Revolution Medicine, bullish on M&A in the biotech space (51:47)
• Panel wraps up with quick banter and affirmations of conviction.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Stephanie Link: "If you wait for certainty, you're going to miss some of the easy money to be made." (04:24)
• Jim Laventhal: "When you lift the hood and really look at the pieces of the fundamental engine, there are things that are going right in addition to earnings." (08:51)
• Brin Palantir: "History shows us that markets adapt very quickly to the fogs of war." (09:24)
• Scott Wapner: "Is the market ignoring risk? Or is it just digesting headlines faster than we think?" (08:09)
• President Trump: "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon...There are many boats coming to our country now. This could be settled before the [ceasefire deadline]." (39:31–41:27)
• Brin Palantir (on Nike): "If you've bought it, your hands are all cut up because it has been truly a flat falling knife. I just think that they lack execution." (32:12)

Key Segment Timestamps

• 00:59 — Market open, tone-setting analyst calls
• 04:24 — Stephanie Link on consumer resilience, rotation
• 06:22 — Jim Laventhal on oil, market risks, high yield spreads
• 09:24 — Brin Palantir on war adaptation, China’s role
• 17:42 — Start of sector spotlights and individual stock discussions
• 39:31–48:41 — President Trump Q&A on Iran, oil, and geopolitics
• 50:59 — Final trade picks

Conclusion

This episode captures Wall Street at a moment of nervous optimism. The Halftime team makes the case for market resilience, citing strong earnings, robust consumer and labor markets, and indications that war shocks are being digested faster than many feared. Sector rotation and valuation resets suggest opportunities beyond the big tech names, with selective optimism for turnarounds and M&A activity. Meanwhile, geopolitics remain volatile, but traders are increasingly conditioned to distinguish between headline risk and true market-moving events.

For listeners: If you want to understand how top investors are thinking about war, oil, tech, bank earnings, and where today's market resilience comes from—or if you’re looking for actionable trades—the Halftime Report has you covered.