
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the state of the markets ahead of the Fed decision as well as Meta and Microsoft earnings on deck. Kevin Simpson details his latest portfolio moves. Michael Santoli joins with his Midday Word. Calls of the Day include Disney, Coca-Cola, and Cisco Systems. Oliver Renick covers Options Action from Cboe Global Markets. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner front and center this hour. What a day ahead, the Fed meeting, earnings from better Microsoft looming. So much more happening in these markets today. We're trading all of it, of course, with the investment committee. And joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Brent talking to Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson to the markets. We're getting hit pretty hard here. 12 noon in the east. That is the picture today with the Dow down 1 1/2%. The S&P is now off almost 1%. Nasdaq selling has picked up a bit. The chips are getting weaker as we speak. And part of it has to do with the fact that there's that big spike in crude that you saw at the bottom of your screen, at least where some of the green on the board is today. Sarah was just talking about yields. We're watching all that. But there's the chip picture at 12 noon. So we do have a one heck of a day. And as single days go, this is a pretty big one with everything that's looming in the in the hours ahead.
Michael Santoli
Well, it's big for me personally because of Microsoft and better. Yes, the Federal Reserve is critically important. Is there a surprise there? We'll see. The market will react one way or the other to a significant surprise. But back to Microsoft and better. Clearly the theme has been about capex. We heard that last week with Alphabet for the first time they were free cash flow Negative. Obviously the street punished them for that. So each one of these stocks, Metta and Microsoft I utilize momentum as a factor in a strategy. Neither one of these names, Scott, whether you're looking on a 12 month basis or a 6 month basis can be defined as a momentum stock anymore. Let's get that out of the way.
Scott Wapner
Microsoft first. I mean everybody on the desk owns it. So there's a lot at stake. Obviously today Bren, the stocks underperformed. It's the worst of the hyperscalers year to date. Maybe that limits some of the downside as some are suggesting because it already hasn't done anything. There are a lot of questions out there. If they're going to raise their capex guide, are they going to maintain their guide on Azure? That's going to be a really interesting dynamic to watch. If they don't sort of lift cloud and they lift spend, stock's probably going to get punished. But how do you see it here?
Joe Terranova
So first of all you have from a momentum perspective it's below the 250 and 100 day. So it's the opposite of a momentum trade. Right now the stock is making lower highs and lower lows. So that is not a good setup. I don't think in any going into any earnings report of being, let's say washed out. I think that whereas Google cloud grew at 85% year over year, albeit it's much smaller than Microsoft, I still think that the jury's out because ultimately I'm still reflecting on, you know, China clearly owns the open model, okay. And with Kimi spending whatever, we obviously know they're probably distilling anthropic, etc. Nonetheless, they are crushing it on their open models. I think the question that we're all dealing with is what the heck are these hyperscalers spending all this money on and what are the results? Because I think whereas Google, you have these verticals of their chips, YouTube, et cetera, et cetera, we use copilot and coworkers. It's still mediocre. And so to me I think when you have these Chinese models working very well, very inexpensive, the US models, especially Microsoft is still quite clunky. I think that to me, I think the news is going to be more on the downside because I just think they're still so stuck in the mud of actually are we actually going to all continue to buy copilot because now cowork is now usage based and they still haven't even figured out what they're going to charge for that model. So why am I as a company going to go buy Cowork when I'm not exactly sure what their charge is?
Scott Wapner
So they're so, so much on the line in terms of it's not just the amount they're spending, it's the drain, as Bryn said on free cash flow. FactSet surveyed analysts, they expect Microsoft's free cash flow to go negative in the fourth quarter for the first time since at least 01 Alphabet got punished for that. Then you have raising debt to help pay for a lot of the build out to offset some of the free cash flow drainage. And then you have the CDS which is widening in these names for the, you know, to levels that we haven't seen in an awfully long time. So that's a backdrop that projects some skepticism in the marketplace to say the very least. Right?
Steve Weiss
Yeah, I think it's well deserved skepticism. I mean Microsoft went from in my view the clear winner about a year, year and a half ago to the question of what is their strategy. Have they aligned themselves and gotten too deep into the relationship with OpenAI and we don't know ultimately if Open Air Anthropic will be winners. So Brin talks about Chinese competition that's actually good for these companies because they could spend less and get not quite equal capabilities but the capabilities that they need. So their cost should go down. That's a small part of the cost. Data centers are the biggest part of the cost. So it's lots of uncertainty. Look, you know, clearly if they don't hit whatever the whisper number is on cloud growth after seeing Google, then that's going to be a major, major issue for them. So it comes down to spend too. Is there spend going to go up?
Scott Wapner
Probably, yeah. Don't you expect, I mean is that a rhetorical question in many respects, right?
Steve Weiss
I do expect to because we know that Meadows already said we're going to spend another 40 billion and, and you had OpenAI increased their spend by 25% to 750 million. So look, so, so I own Microsoft. It's not one of my bigger positions. Meta is one of my bigger positions.
Scott Wapner
We'll get there in a minute. Give me a 3 year guys on this Microsoft, if you, if you wouldn't mind, we'll get to, we'll get to Meta in a minute. So I don't want to go there yet. But Kev, you know it's so interesting. Three years ago, ish, maybe not quite that far. This was like the AI darling Satya Nadella was like deemed to be the man who had led his company into the future sooner than others. Right. The OpenAI relationship that they did. And now we're asking all these questions about what their strategy is and there are many articles now being written about what his legacy is going to be when everybody sort of had written it in Sharpie but a few years ago.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah. And I think it was software, Scott, that really derailed this entire company. You can put IBM sort of in that same conversation. Of the four that we're going to hear from today and tomorrow, I'm most concerned about Microsoft. And everyone here on the desk has talked about azure growth and CapEx. Those are the two things we want to see. I don't know if the Whisper number is 40% or 41% but I can't imagine a scenario in which this stock is going to pop and report something so constructive that it goes higher. I think all the bad news has been built in and maybe this is just an earnings bar that's incredibly low and if they can just get through it, maybe that in and of itself is a win.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so you agree with those who say the downside risk in that name specifically could be more limited because of the chart that we just showed you more recently.
Kevin Simpson
So much so that we were buyers of it. So it went from a 550 repricing to down to 350. We were buying in the 3 70s. There's not that much to show for it at 390. But this isn't a stock to your point, Scott? I absolutely agree that the bad news is built in. So I'm not expecting a 20% sell off but I'm not expecting anything close to a 20%.
Michael Santoli
I don't disagree that it's washed out. Just one point to make tonight. Watch out. The wild card is if Microsoft actually steps into the debt market. That's the one. Hyperscaler. They're triple A rated. They haven't sold debt since 2017. Everyone else is selling debt. Do they look around and say wait a second, free cash flow negative. We need to sell some debt as well. Street won't like that.
Steve Weiss
I don't know if the street will care. I mean, because the street will.
Michael Santoli
Absolutely. Well let me tell you why I
Steve Weiss
take the other side that because the others have done it.
Michael Santoli
So they haven't done it. They haven't done it since 2017. It's another.
Scott Wapner
It's not like the others have been rewarded for doing right. It's not a badge of honor in the market.
Steve Weiss
But my point is they haven't been rewarded for not doing it. The stock's done nothing. The stock stands the worst performer. So sure, there could be a marginal hit to it, but I don't look at this being down 10% or so. I mean, they've already cut back on all their buybacks. Buybacks are there, but they're not executing on any meaningful way.
Joe Terranova
I mean, it comes down to execution. And I still go back to like, first principles. What are the. What are they spending all this money for? What, when I can see, actually, I feel like all of these frontier models will ultimately be commoditized.
Kevin Simpson
Right?
Joe Terranova
Like that's going to happen. Right. And so they. I promise you, if open I was a public company last week, it would have been down 40% off that.
Scott Wapner
Kimmin, I think the questions you asked, like the.
Kevin Simpson
For what?
Scott Wapner
Like those two words are probably the most important words that investors have right now collectively. For what? Why are you going to spend, if you're Microsoft, $190 billion for the year? Why, if you are Meta, are you going to maybe hit 145 billion? For what? We think we know what the what is, but until we can see it tangibly in front of our faces, we'll continue to ask those questions.
Steve Weiss
Sorry, go ahead.
Joe Terranova
No, I'm just saying with, with Meta, just for what is that? I mean, they started with open, open models, right? They started with that and now they're like, that doesn't exist anymore. And like they're spending all these companies are spending all this money hiring all these people in the US Spending billions of dollars on these pay packages. And I go back for what, what is the output? Because I will say with Microsoft Copilot, I wish it were different. Still feels like teams. That's why I use Zoom and like, until Microsoft can make teams like Zoom and Copilot, like Perplexity or Claude, even though Microsoft uses Claude, they can't filter it. Right. I think Microsoft's going to be in the dog.
Scott Wapner
Let's go to, let's go to Metta, which is also down on the year. It's also down big from its high. That is a stock chart that represents questions, right? The volatility of a spend. For what are they going to have now a cloud business too? I don't know, Weiss.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. So look, you know, first, first of all, through all this, I violated one of my personal investing tenets, which is that never get in front of a CapEx cycle. And here I've been in front of the CapEx cycle, you know, on Meta, on Microsoft and it hasn't worked out particularly well. I mean I'm not suffering the stocks just not performing. So that's the first thing. So look, with Metta, I have a lot of faith in Zuckerberg. I do think he is a visionary. I do think he looks long term. I do think he's the best navigator of troubled waters and the quickest to say, you know what, I made a mistake. We saw that time and time again. Going back to Mobile.
Scott Wapner
Right.
Steve Weiss
Way back. What was that? Almost a decade ago. So, so I'm comfortable there. It doesn't mean that short term the stock's going to do well. I think there are still challenges but
Scott Wapner
I do believe it is another one. We're watching the CDS like with, with like we used to watch like talk about every day. The oracles of the world. Yeah.
Steve Weiss
And I'm not really concerned about cds. To me, to me, cbs, you know, if you're looking at a Lehman type situation and a Lehman in particular, the risks there.
Scott Wapner
I don't think we're talking.
Steve Weiss
No, no we're not. My point is that I don't see the correlation to the where the CDS trades to what's happening with the fundamentals.
Scott Wapner
No, no, no, not at all. But. But if nothing else, what we just showed you, the CDS is a representation of where investor concern has risen to that you might as well have meta investor concern rather than met a five year cds.
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Because that is what that chart represents, doesn't it?
Steve Weiss
It's, it's like what the VIX used to do for the market. Right. Here's the VIX and you know, volatility and the market's going down but also
Joe Terranova
the CDS is also. There's a huge hedging aspect which we have to all like that's complicated. I do think where what matter does so well and I think it's great. Right. They're going to start leasing out like, like Elon did with their data centers. Leasing out some of that capacity because it's not being used. What they do so well is their targeted ads on Instagram and Facebook, etc. Their Ray Bans are now expanding that that product is a home run and it's like if they were more focused on I promise you their Instagram, their ads are going to be awesome because that AI is working. But this other aspect where they're spending this money, I think that's where the jury's still out is what am I getting for all this money? Just focus on what you're amazing at. I think the stock would go much higher.
Scott Wapner
How about the power about this fact outside of Apple which I, you know you listen to all the conversations about what their valuation has, has risen to. A lot of these valuations for these names are at multi year lows.
Michael Santoli
Yeah, Met I think is a forward of 15 times.
Scott Wapner
Nvidia met is like 19, Microsoft's 21, Nvidia's 19, Amazon 27.
Michael Santoli
Alphabet they are, they are certainly on sale when you look at valuation. I think the conversation tonight for Metta is really going to try and pivot towards the cloud and the introduction of the cloud. Let's remember something. Last quarter they beat on earnings, they beat on revenue, stock went down. Why? Market didn't like the capex so they're going to try their best tonight to steer the conversation away from capex towards guess what? We brought on Dave Brown, he led Amazon's cloud business, he's an executive here now. He's going to lead our attempt to lease out our compute. We potentially have a relationship with Anthropic.
Scott Wapner
They're going to try their best, try and steer it away from the capex as much as they want. Every analyst question is going to be about CapEx.
Mike Santoli
Yeah, yeah.
Joe Terranova
Can you guys take a second on the valuation? Like do not get, you know I don't like pes but do not viewers get lured into these lower P Es because Google since 2015 has been positive free cash flow, they're negative free cash flow. These companies for 15 plus years have been cap light, high margin buying back shares. These companies have fundamentally changed their stripes and so I think you have to look at the valuations in a whole new lens because we don't know like you said, you don't want to get from a capex cycle. You don't know when that's going to turn. I mean Google Cloud lost money for years until it didn't but it was one vertical. These companies are putting all their chips on and that's why Oracle has been like one of the worst performing stocks. They put all their chips on OpenAI and so I don't think you can look at the valuation of any of these hyperscalers and have any lens on what the future performance will be based on history.
Steve Weiss
The rest of the world is telling you that, I mean semis and, and memory that the cap cap cycle has peaked and it's going to recede.
Scott Wapner
Well that's what some are looking at the activity in semis and, and trying to suggest that yeah that those are, you could look at the charts and make, make the argument that those are signs of a, of a top.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, yeah.
Scott Wapner
But the spending would have you believe otherwise.
Steve Weiss
Well, it's, there's, there's always a disconnect between when. Put another way, the stocks always trade down in advance of when the spending peaks. So spending keep going up for another year, maybe even two years, but the stocks will peak anticipating that. And that's why I sold those that I sold because I didn't want to be the last one out.
Scott Wapner
The Korean market just continues to get hammered. Pick your appropriate word. I was looking at Hynix earlier which I think had turned green. Now it's down almost 4%. A lot of the other names in the group. Did you see Micron now was down 7%. AMD is down 7%. Why is the NASDAQ getting weaker as we were coming on the air today? Well that is largely a representation of that KLA beat shares were not higher on that. There's the stock down almost more than 9%. What's up with that? As Lamb reports today too, which has been overshadowed by all the hyperscalers that
Michael Santoli
are in the news at 9:00 Eastern Time tonight, we're going to hear from Samsung. They already had the preliminary report. We get the full report tonight. So in the case of KLA Corp. They are in the midst of their worst month since 1987. The stock is down 38% this month. Guess what though, the stock is up still 50% on the year. This is a subsector of the trade that went parabolic. We've talked about that. And positioning and sentiment went in the direction of just being extreme. Extreme. We're working off those extreme conditions right now. If you want to look at the overall market, you can make an argument that as long as oil stays under control, you get the broadening out narrative and it's healthy for the market. I understand that. But at a certain point when capital moves away as significantly as it has, you can expect a V shaped recovery in a lot of these semi equipment names. So in the case of KLA Corp, the quarter was okay. It wasn't as good as it needed to be when you have such high expectations. I'm looking at a revenue 7% on foundry and Logic Division. That's not enough. They need to be in high double digit territory.
Scott Wapner
Can we, can we talk about another AI stock? That being Caterpillar? You guys want to go there? Because it's been treated as Kev smiling over there. But it has, it's been made. An AI stock hasn't it the stock's down 25% in the last month. It got downgraded today to neutral at bear Target goes to 900 from 1200. What's that, what's that a sign? What does that chart a sign of?
Kevin Simpson
I don't think your analogy could have been any better because if you look at the explosion paired an AI trade and here are the similar sell off. You sold it Steve. Congratulations. I think that was the right goal. I think the $901,000 price range is still there for the investment thesis but if Capex is peaking and that doesn't mean it has to roll over or come down if it's not increasing exponentially that's why we're seeing all of these things that are cyclical in nature selling off to the extent that they are. So Caterpillar is not a one trick pony. We're going to hang on to it but I think the call is correct and I don't see the stock going back to 1200 anytime soon but I think 900 certainly in the car.
Scott Wapner
You think that you think Capex is, is peaking? All of the numbers would suggest otherwise. Most of the commentary still thinks you know we're when you ask people well it's a third inning, fourth inning I
Kevin Simpson
don't think it's the third inning, I think it's the seventh inning. I don't think it is peaking to the extent that it won't go higher because I do think over the next year it will appreciate.
Scott Wapner
Is this the stretch and we, you know we, we have song and then we resume the game or what stand
Kevin Simpson
up and take our hats off because this is the seventh inning stretch. They're going to go a little bit higher but not expect exponentially and then to Steve's point they're going to come back.
Scott Wapner
You have cat?
Michael Santoli
I do, yeah. I'm not sure what I make of this note because within the note they talk about the government restrictions they mentioned New York State, the moratorium on building out further data centers. I don't know enough about that to don't hold any.
Kevin Simpson
Okay, that's go elsewhere.
Michael Santoli
That's, that's not to me the impediment to continuing CapEx want to turn to the CDS market. Yeah, that's the impediment because of yields. Put yourself in a precarious position where it's not advantageous to access the debt market then you've got to pause on the Capex. I think the order book for Caterpillar it needs a reset. I think the entire Industrial sector and you could go to GE Vernova, you could look at Vertif same type of example here. It needed a reset. The order book still has demand there but to the extent of which we were paying the premium for these stocks just six to eight weeks ago, I don't think it's warrant.
Scott Wapner
All right. Oh yeah, there's a Fed meeting and I mean a fed decision at 2 o' clock this afternoon which is intriguing for all the reasons other than what actually happens today with rates despite a market that has 20, 30% or whatever it now is built in that there's going to be a hike today. Dissents we'll see. Forward guidance. Does it totally go away? Comms by the Fed task force. More on that. Goldman today says we're set up for the biggest Fed day surprise since 97. Whatever they do. Right. Because usually if there's going to be a move up or down the market has so anticipated it that you're not at 30% and now if they don't make a move, well how could you be at 30% then they're not, they're not going to make a move. How do we see what happens to see afternoon is impacting this market?
Joe Terranova
I think there's a very low probability obviously they raise rates. His first meeting I think, you know, we have to give you know Kevin some, some, some rope. He's in a new position, he's obviously a veteran and I think, you know, you can give no guidance but you have to like build out your case. And so I just think it's going to be interesting that all of us are going to be listening. There's low probability of a rate hike and also if you think through the inflationary pressures there's really nothing the Fed raising rates is going to do about oil prices, raising rates is going to do about data centers. When you actually go into a rate hiking cycle and you're trying to slow the economy, it's a lot of it's to do with lending and I think everyone would know this lending is not easy right now. It's not easy to buy a house right now. So at the end of the day, no rate rate hike. But we're going to have to get used to his Greenspan type, you know, of commentary where it's lack of commentary and we're all left guessing which I think it makes it more interesting as a market and we'll see what like the Jeff Gundlocks have to say, you
Scott Wapner
know, after he'll join in three as always, what happens Weiss, if there's just going to be less commentary that you all are going to have to make many of your decisions, if not, you know, in the dark, at least with less light.
Steve Weiss
You know what, I've always been a fan of that. I don't want them to constantly talk about the sauce, how the sauce is being made, and it's being made differently every week depending upon which Fed head talks. So I'm in favor of that because I also think that what they talk about in between meetings biases what they say or do at the meetings. Some favor that the market is going to have to get used to figuring out, figuring out for themselves. So could it cause more volatility? I actually think it'll cause less volatility in the market between Fed meetings. As you get closer to the meeting, the volatility will increase. But I think it's a good thing for markets to have them just, you know, keep some things to themselves.
Kevin Simpson
Here's a different take on why I agree there'll be less volatility because I think that the market is very appreciative of an independent Fed. And there was a lot of concern with Kevin Warsh going in that maybe this is more of a puppet. And clearly, if a few weeks is any indication, that's not the case. And I think it's a fantastic person, the right person and the right policy.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, but some are saying, well, wouldn't he, you know, initiate a shot of independence by actually hiking today? No, but the other side of that is, well, then you like you're, you cut off your nose despite your face because then you've surprised the market so much that the market reaction would be so negative. Then what do you really get out of it? You raise your hand and say, hey, I'm independent.
Kevin Simpson
See, I don't think that the board of governors would vote for it, but I'll bet you he'd like to do it.
Scott Wapner
There could be some interesting dissents.
Steve Weiss
I think they think they would like to raise some ways, some probably. I don't think it cures the problems though, because if they relate to oil and the flow through for oil, hiking rates really just isn't going to do anything. That's all about Iran.
Michael Santoli
If they keep the market on the edge of its seat, that maybe a rate hike is coming, coming not today, but at a future meeting. What's the effect on the dollar? I'd love to hear from Jeffrey when you talk to him today. The dollar has been rising. The consequence of that is capital moves out of the emerging markets and developed international. You realize the Nikkei is down 12% this month. The emerging markets are down nearly 10%. So a higher dollar is going to have that punitive effect on capital and leverage moving out of those markets.
Scott Wapner
Let's, let's squeeze a break in. Let's do that and then we will talk about a payment.
Joe Terranova
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Scott Wapner
We're down by more than 900. Paired that just a smidge. But you've got weakness today. We mentioned Caterpillar is causing a lot of pain within the Dow today. Boeing's down. Goldman is a significant loser there too, down more than 4%. So JPM is as well. We'll continue to watch that.
Steve Weiss
Just one thing. Goldman.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, go ahead.
Steve Weiss
This is trading down. I believe in addition to market being down because now there's some doubts about the IPO cycle and about M and A with the uncertainty, certainty in the market with rates going back up 10 years now at 4.6. So I think that's influencing the trading.
Scott Wapner
Goldman under a thousand now.
Oliver Renick
Yeah, right.
Scott Wapner
Remember, it took a minute to get above. Give me a little longer view of that. Like a month if you could guys, please.
Steve Weiss
Well, they had unbelievable earnings.
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
Steve Weiss
But a lot of people owned it and let's face did have a premium valuation all these banks did to what their historical trading range had been. But to me that's what's driving it. You can't keep having technology go down day after day after day when that's supposed to be the heart of the cycle. Particularly after you had SK Hynix fail. Right. And, and Space X fail. So now people are questioning, is this the right time? Will they be able to generate these fees?
Scott Wapner
Well, SpaceX was fail. SpaceX was a space agency. Successful IP. I mean the stock is at 112. But your points get found. I know what point you're making is that it's below the IPO price.
Steve Weiss
To me, that now that's, that's failing. Right. Short term average.
Joe Terranova
The average return for an IPO one year later. The average return for an IPO one year later is negative 50%. It's like on par. IPOs don't typically trade well after they IPO. So to me it was a successful IPO on par with bad performance the first year.
Scott Wapner
All right, so let's get to some moves that Kevin, our man Kevin has you bought more Visa. So they had earnings. The target today at B of a goes to 430 from 410. Why'd you buy more here?
Kevin Simpson
I mean that's an aggressive price target. We were thinking 400. I'd love to see it go there. We picked this up before earnings and this is a story, I think of the entire earnings season, Scott. It's have and have nots. If you deliver, you're going to be rewarded. So many companies have it. But this, this report was unbelievable. Payment volume was up 10%. Process transactions up 10%. Cross cross border volume up 13%. And most important for us, revenue grew 14%. It's also a tale of the consumer. Consumer is not slowing down. This is a great story for the economy, a great story for Visa Britain
Oliver Renick
and I own it.
Kevin Simpson
It's fantastic.
Scott Wapner
Okay, From Penthouse to outhouse Netflix. So this isn't you bought more.
Kevin Simpson
So full disclosure, this is our growth strategy where we tend to take a little bit more risk. And my thought process here is, you know, sometimes good things happen to cheap stocks. And I look at this like a year into the future, we may all turn around and say, and we could have bought Netflix in the 60s, why didn't we? And this is a story where right now in the summer, none of the top shows that I think any of us are watching are on Netflix. But this is a story that I think it's Getting cheap enough that I look at the turnaround over the next six months, maybe two quarters.
Scott Wapner
Can we broaden that out, please, to show what I'm talking about. Right. This thing was at the top of the mountain and now very few people love this name or. It's certainly a hot debate stock within the market. And I feel like the naysayers have been winning more than the boosters.
Kevin Simpson
Yes, tight leash, but I think it's a good buy at 70 bucks.
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
Michael Santoli
I've tried to buy the stock several times. I've traded around it. It got in, gone out. I think as it relates to all the streamers, costs are going to remain elevated. Competition is as intense as we've ever seen. And there seems to be the fixation on live entertainment and live sports. And with that comes a significant price tag that they all are going to be competing for.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, but the market had rewarded those moves by Netflix before. It loved the idea that it was having a foothold now in, in the, in the NFL and that it was expanding into other live sporting events. Now we're, we're questioning that because of
Michael Santoli
what it costs, I think over the last 18 months. And that's where you really have to look back at Netflix. It peaked out in June of 2025. That's when you began to see the moderation in the revenue growth. That's where you began to see that the earnings reports were coming in just good enough, not exceeding the expectations like they were prior to June of 25. I thought prior to June of 25 you had some really blockbuster earnings results.
Joe Terranova
But if you look at it today though, it's recovered its earnings fall from last week. So I mean to me from an entry point, Netflix reminds me of Uber. Like if you price it, if you, if you buy it right in the low 60s, sell it in the mid 70s, you can make money. But I think like Uber and Netflix from a long term hold, you really need to trade these names because I agree with what everyone said. But I think at these levels it could easily be $80 stock on no news and that's up 1% when the Dow is down what, 850 points to me is like a good defensive outside of AI, outside of all these other
Steve Weiss
things that's working, I think the biggest issue for me and I sold it mostly out of boredom. I didn't see go anywhere. I want to be more cash. The company said we're worried about growth so there's got to be reset of how the market thinks about number one and Your to your point about the NFL, they haven't seen any major uptick in subscriber growth since they went into the NFL and they're going to spend more. So that's become more of a cost of admission than a growth drive.
Scott Wapner
Maybe investors are also somewhat questioning what their quote unquote game plan exactly is because, you know, if you're involved in the bidding for Warner Brothers, and then I think there was another, another story that they were maybe, you know, interested in something else that, well, what are you getting at? What do you, what are you after here? What was a stated grow organically rather than by acquisition that the company even laid out in its own words at one point in time. Has that changed? Like what is the end game?
Kevin Simpson
It's a legitimate criticism because the identity has shifted. Accepted, we're not going to make an acquisition, but now we're going to, now we're going to make it say that. Yeah, I mean, they said it for years and they changed. But they also said they were never going to do ads and they changed and that became very profitable. This next acquisition is going to cost an arm and a leg. They have it. And can you imagine Sunday Night Football and Netflix, I think that's coming.
Steve Weiss
They're not clear in their own strategy. For example, now the rumors are they're going to be so to be offering the ability subscribe to other streaming services on their site, try to clip pennies there. So until they know their strategy, until they can express it, I'm just not
Michael Santoli
Apple tv Amazon Pride the market share leadership that Netflix had two years ago is not the same today.
Steve Weiss
Turn still low.
Scott Wapner
We'll take a break. Santoli's on the other side as midday word next.
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Julia Boorstin
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
Joe Terranova
I have no fear of failure.
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
Joe Terranova
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
Julia Boorstin
Life is short and you just gotta
Joe Terranova
think big to accomplish big things.
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin HOSTS CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts,
Joe Terranova
we're back on HALFTIME report.
Mackenzie Segalos
I'm Mackenzie Segalos with a CNBC News upd. A new report says President Trump overruled his own agencies when he denied disaster aid to four Democratic led states this month. Emails and documents obtained by Politico showed FEMA and NOAA officials agreed that New York, New Jersey, Rhode island and Massachusetts met the necessary thresholds for receiving federal relief. The White House defended its denials and would not answer POLITICO's questions about why the aid was denied. Texas Republican Senator John Clerk Cornyn said he is not prepared to vote yes on Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche's nomination to permanently lead the Justice Department. Cornyn called off a meeting with Blanche today as he pushes for the DOJ to make it clear that it won't establish a $1.8 billion anti weaponization fund. A DOJ official told Ms. Now they provided Cornyn with a proposal yesterday. And Waymo announcing that it's rolling out. Google Gemini in its new Ohio Robotaxi to give passengers the option to talk to the vehicle. Riders will be able to ask the AI assistant to turn on the AC or for suggestions on nearby restaurants or coffee shops. Passengers will also have the option to request a pullover. But Waymo says Gemini does not control any other aspect of the vehicle's movement or routing.
Joe Terranova
Scott, sending it back to you.
Scott Wapner
All right, Mackenzie, thanks. Mackenzie Segalis. All right, senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Michael Santoli joins us for his midday word. This, this feels like a buffet. You got high oil, Mike, you got rates up. The chips are getting smashed again. Fed looming this afternoon. How do you see it?
Mike Santoli
Yeah, I mean, look, the established pattern, Scott, is when there is continued pressure on semis, the market can broaden out and usually take up the slack, but only if yields are down and oil is down. So we fouled that all up. Then you have the, I think understandable tension buildup ahead of the Fed and ahead of Microsoft this evening. Absolutely have to leave open the possibility that those can be clearing events within two hours time that we've sort of done enough to get worried about these things and no matter how they break, maybe we could have an attempt at relief. That being said, you know, I've always been a skeptic of broadening is salvation for the market. And I'm surprised that the that the semi are down 25% in like four weeks or five weeks and the S and P is within a couple of percent of its all time highs. They Give credit for that. But the weakness in banks today is a little bit of a different story. So I think that is all about, you know, the Fed kind of the what if trade, about what might happen with that decision today.
Scott Wapner
What are you thinking about the Fed and what may happen later? The biggest intrigue, not really about what they're going to do on rates today day, but almost everything else on the menu.
Mike Santoli
Well, I mean I think there's actually more intrigue about the rate decision than you would ever expect to see a few hours ahead of time. You know, 1/3 chance is pretty high. I still don't necessarily think the logic team gets them to a hike. If you look at where things were in June, oil's really not any higher and it went much lower in the interim. You had better CPI print. So it doesn't really follow that they would move today. It would be a gesture, it would be a let's get it over with type of a move and establishing, by the way, almost all Fed chairs have hiked, aside from Janet Yellen within like two months of when they got there because that seemed to be the thing to do. So I don't think they're going to do that. I think it's much more about, you know, the market wanting to have some way to get its arms around what decision making process is down the, down the, down the line. Obviously have Jackson Hole before the next meeting. There's a lot that we're going to have to process. But bottom line is if Wash thinks that the market's been too dependent on the Fed and the Fed has calmed Wall street at the expense of Main street. He wants a more volatile market. Maybe that doesn't appreciate quite as quickly. I mean, I don't know. That seems to be the what you might get here in the short term.
Scott Wapner
I think the market's probably one of, you know, little rules of the road just to understand what's, what it's going to be like in the, in the meetings and years ahead. Michael, we'll see you this afternoon. Thank you. Mike Santoli, Calls of the Day next. Welcome back to Calls the Day. Take a look at Disney. Target gets cut today to 135 at Citi to 123 at Morgan Stanley. They both either reiterate a buy or reiterate over overweight. So they like the name. They just have their expectations taken down ahead of an earnings report next week. Citi says they see some risk to the guide. What do you think?
Michael Santoli
I think I probably agree this company is clearly in the Midst of an identity crisis. We've talked in the last several weeks about the fact that they really need to identify what the catalyst for growth ultimately is going to be. Years ago I was told it was streaming. In the last five years, the single biggest catalyst has been the activism itself. We added it to the ETF at the end of April. I always say when you add something recently, it is guilty until it proves itself innocent. And it has not done so. We're in at 103 and change. It's a losing position as we get set to rebalance on Friday.
Scott Wapner
Okay, enough. Enough said. As they say, Coca Cola killed it with the earnings. The Target goes to 100 from 95, reiterated by B of A Kev.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I must think it's too low a price target at this point. Here we have the Dow Jones down 800, 900 points. Coca Cola is at a new high. Quietly with you. Factor in the dividend. The Stock's up almost 20% on the year and the earnings were great. They beat on the top, they beat on the bottom. They increased. Their guide Global unit sales were up 5% and Coke Zero up 16% on the quarter.
Scott Wapner
CBRE their earnings and revenue beat. They reaffirm their guidance. Bring you on the stock.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, this is one of those great names. We don't buy stocks before earnings. We try not to. Two quarters ago the stock was at 175. Earnings came out, they were great. Went to 135 because the world put their hair on fire that I was going to take over. CBRE. That's where we entered the stock. Around the 130s. Their earnings were up. Core earnings were up 30%. Data center earnings. Data center revenue was up 68%. The stock just crossed the 200 day moving average. It should be $170 stock.
Scott Wapner
You want to.
Michael Santoli
I do. This is quality earnings. A recent addition. So this one is proving itself to be more innocent than guilty. For sure. We'll see what happens on Friday.
Scott Wapner
What about GE Health Care earnings too?
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
Michael Santoli
So Scott, while I talk, if we could pull up a chart of the IHI a one year time frame. That's medical devices, please. You'll see. GE Health Care Medical Technology.
Kevin Simpson
How.
Michael Santoli
Having a little bit of a lift here as well off of these earnings. I don't trust medical devices enough. You see it there? Over the last year it struggled. It's down 13%. The one name we all used to talk about, Brian, I think you had. It was Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical with robotics and Da Vinci and the expectations I would be beneficial. Intuitive surgical is struggled as well. So I'm not so sure just right now that the medical devices are where you ultimately want to be. It's more biotech, big pharma, Bristol Myer, Merck.
Steve Weiss
What about the hurdle for devices and hospitals has increased dramatically because the buying is now with the administrators and hospitals are not making any money. So the first thing they do is delay purchasing of devices.
Scott Wapner
What about Garmin? Wow, they had earnings too.
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
Michael Santoli
Quite a move. And that's really about the diversity of the products, the wearable. It's in aviation, it's in marine, auto, golf, all of it. I think it's at a record high today. Correct me if I'm wrong. It probably is happy to maintain that
Scott Wapner
position and I record high. You're probably wrong. Which, which were you.
Michael Santoli
Welcome back.
Scott Wapner
It's up 19%. You should no matter what, you should be happy. Oh, I just want to clarify you were talking about.
Michael Santoli
Yes, thank you.
Scott Wapner
Just wanted to make sure. All right, options action on Meta. And Mike, Microsoft ahead of those big earnings in overtime. We will have it for you from Chicago next. All right, we're back. Let's get to Oliver Renick. He is live at the CBO in Chicago. He's been tracking some options action ahead of Metta and Microsoft. What do you see?
Oliver Renick
Hey, Scott, Options flows lean bullish for Both Meta down 15% the past year and Microsoft down 23%. Traders bought at least twice as many calls as puts in both names. But looking at Microsoft, there was also a lot of selling of puts, particularly the 392 and a half strike put expiring Friday, meaning many traders are fading the downside risk associated with what is a very big implied move, 6% currently baked into earnings from Microsoft, which usually only moves about 4%. The top four contracts by volume and Microsoft were calls ranging from the 400 strike all the way up to the 460. Now in meta, the implied move is bigger, almost 8%. But by meta standards, it's actually smaller than the average 11% swing the past year. Bulls there are targeting the 590 and 595 strike calls expiring Friday. But flows were a bit more mixed in this stock with actually a lot of bearish speculators. Traders picking up long shot 500 strike puts expiring Friday that go for about a buck and a half and need a 14% drop to work. Scott.
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff, Oliver. Thank you. I'll see you later on 3 o' clock as we head into these earnings. That's Oliver Renick at CBO in Chicago. That matches with exactly what we talked about at the top of the program, doesn't it? Fading the downside risk. The stocks have been punished a lot. Which is why, according to what he sees in the options market, traders are bullish on both.
Joe Terranova
Yep. I think with Metta, huge call premium. I think Meta could be positive. By the way, if what Joe is saying. They're talking about cloudless capex. I think if you were going to buy a stock before earnings, buy the stock and then sell the call to get that premium because it gives you a hedge on the downside, I would not be buying calls. That's like just pure gambling. If they're going to expire Friday, I would be selling those calls and buying the stock.
Scott Wapner
We've said on numerous occasions.
Kevin Simpson
Right.
Scott Wapner
That and it's proven to be true. Not what we've said, but how investor activity has turned out that there's an unwillingness to let these stocks fall too far. Because if you're telling me you're increasing your capex and people still think you're in their, you know, early to middle innings despite your, you know, seventh inning earlier, then how far could you. Could these stocks truly far. Famous last words, obviously. But that's been, I think, the psychology around it. Weiss.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. And the truth is the buy the
Scott Wapner
dip mentality in these names.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. And I think if you buy the dip, depending upon your time frame, you'll be rewarded. But I also think you trade them on good news. Like I bought Meta when they came out and announced that they were going to sell their cloud. Right. Stock traded up to 650. It was a great trade. Got early, got out. So it depends, really depends.
Scott Wapner
Okay, finals next, 3 o' clock eastern. We react to Fed Chair wars news conference with Jeffrey Gundlach. See what happens. I mean, nobody really knows what all is going to unfold and how the markets are going to react. So we'll see. What's your final?
Kevin Simpson
My final, Scott, is Steel Dynamics. We've had a lot of success with this in our growth portfolio.
Steve Weiss
I'm going with the 10 year. I can't tell you. Yields aren't going to go higher, but it's a good entry point.
Joe Terranova
CBRE should be a 170 stock.
Michael Santoli
Tim Cook goes out on top Apple tomorrow.
Scott Wapner
We'll be looking forward to that, too. I'll see you three. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Julia Boorstin
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half time report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer what made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
Joe Terranova
I have no fear of failure.
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women, Changing the game One of
Joe Terranova
my favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting your boss.
Julia Boorstin
Life is short and you just gotta
Joe Terranova
think big to accomplish big things.
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Episode Date: July 29, 2026 | Host: Scott Wapner
This episode comes at a pivotal moment for markets, featuring a volatile trading day driven by anticipation around the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and major tech earnings, notably Microsoft and Meta. Scott Wapner leads a sharp panel discussion with Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson, Michael Santoli, and Oliver Renick. At the heart of the conversation: skepticism about hyperscaler capital expenditures (CapEx), the sustainability of growth in the tech sector amid mounting free cash flow concerns, and market reactions to macro and micro catalysts.
"This is a pretty big one with everything that's looming in the hours ahead."
— Scott Wapner [01:00]
"Are we actually going to all continue to buy Copilot because now cowork is now usage based and they still haven't even figured out what they're going to charge?"
— Joe Terranova [03:19]
Satya Nadella’s once-legendary status is questioned amid strategic ambiguities.
"Now we're asking all these questions about what their strategy is..."
— Scott Wapner [07:33]
Debate on whether downside risk is limited: bad news mostly baked into the price ([08:09-08:39]).
"This isn't a stock, to your point... I absolutely agree that the bad news is built in."
— Kevin Simpson [08:18]
"I do think he's a visionary...the best navigator of troubled waters..."
— Steve Weiss [11:32-12:15]
"Do not get lured into these lower P Es..."
— Joe Terranova [14:59]
"This is a subsector of the trade that went parabolic…We're working off those extreme conditions right now."
— Michael Santoli [17:19]
"They're going to go a little bit higher but not expect exponentially and then to Steve's point they're going to come back."
— Kevin Simpson [19:53]
Consensus: No rate hike expected, but high uncertainty remains ([21:43-22:38]).
Low probability of hiking, with new Chair Kevin Warsh expected to offer little forward guidance. Expect more “Greenspan-like” communication style.
"You have to like build out your case...no rate hike, but we're going to have to get used to his Greenspan type, you know, of commentary where it's lack of commentary and we're all left guessing..."
— Joe Terranova [21:43]
Debated whether less communication will increase or decrease volatility ([22:38-23:56]).
"I think it's a good thing for markets to have them just, you know, keep some things to themselves."
— Steve Weiss [22:53]
"Traders are fading the downside risk associated with what is a very big implied move, 6% currently baked into earnings from Microsoft, which usually only moves about 4%."
— Oliver Renick [43:10]
"This report was unbelievable. Payment volume was up 10%. Process transactions up 10%."
— Kevin Simpson [28:58]
"This company is clearly in the Midst of an identity crisis."
— Michael Santoli [39:34]
“For what? Why are you going to spend, if you're Microsoft, $190 billion for the year? Why, if you are Meta, are you going to maybe hit 145 billion? For what?”
— Scott Wapner [10:01]
"Do not get lured into these lower P Es... These companies have fundamentally changed their stripes and so I think you have to look at the valuations in a whole new lens..."
— Joe Terranova [14:59]
“I'm most concerned about Microsoft...I can't imagine a scenario in which this stock is going to pop.”
— Kevin Simpson [07:33]
“If you buy the dip, depending upon your time frame, you'll be rewarded. But I also think you trade them on good news.”
— Steve Weiss [45:36]
“The established pattern, Scott, is when there is continued pressure on semis, the market can broaden out and usually take up the slack, but only if yields are down and oil is down. So we fouled that all up.”
— Michael Santoli [36:36]
The episode spotlights a moment of profound market uncertainty—macro (Fed, rates, oil) colliding with micro (tech earnings, CapEx, product strategy crises). The ‘for what?’ question around hyperscaler spending encapsulates unease: after years of AI euphoria, Street is now demanding evidence of sustainable profit. Defensive names (Coca-Cola, Visa) shine against a backdrop of battered growth stocks. Meanwhile, market participants are shown preparing for outsized moves through options as every investor awaits clarity from both the Fed and tech giants.
This is an essential listen/watch for anyone navigating technology sector shifts, macro volatility, or the evolving logic of market valuations in 2026.