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Halftime Report
Gaming Out the Fed's Next Move 3/18/26
00:43:54
Michael Santoli and the Investment Committee debate what to expect out of the Fed today and what their decision will mean for the market and your money, CNBC’s Steve Liesman joins ‘Halftime Report’ to discuss the latest out of Washington. Plus, the desk debate how to trade Disney as the new CEO, Josh D'Amaro, takes over for Bob Iger. CNBC’s Julia Boorstin joins ‘Halftime Report’ with the latest.
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A
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes, and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member sipc Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.
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B
Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card.
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C
They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs?
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B
Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getith with the times.
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C
With the times.
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D
You're playing the lute. Yeah.
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B
And it sounds pretty good, right?
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E
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
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F
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.
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B
Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Michael Santoli in for Scott Wapner. The Fed front and center as stocks drift lower ahead of this afternoon's rate decision. How investment committee is standing by with what to expect. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Jim Laventhal and Bryn Talkington. Welcome all. Let's get a quick check on the markets. The s and P500 down just over half a percent. We've been hovering around these levels for a little while coming into today. S and P was up a little more than 1% for the week. Kind of low volume drift higher over Monday and Tuesday. You see their WTI crude does have a bid. It's up about 2 bucks above $98 a barrel. Had been over 99 a little bit earlier. Took some of the pressure off the equity indexes when we pulled back. So, Joe, you know, we spoke yesterday, you were mentioning that equities have been attempting to kind of loosen the link between every little twitch in crude oil prices. Obviously, it's not going to be a complete dislocation from one to the other, but where do you think we sit? I mean, you know, there's a lot of hope that the stage was set for some kind of a rebound rally in stocks this week and for sure
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F
today is a step back in that regard. It continues to be a very frustrating and environment. It's interesting because you mentioned yesterday a lot of people wanting the flush. I had a couple of conversations yesterday with a few hedge fund managers who all said the Same thing like, let's just get this over with, let's do a V shaped bottom and let's recover from there. This is far more punitive because what we're really doing right now is we all anticipated this elevated volatility environment coming into 26. And I think we are also anticipated a much more muted return environment as well. But when you're in it, I said this to you before, when you're in the midst of it, it feels far more punitive. You're losing trends, you're really losing trends everywhere you look today we're down. Not significantly, but we're down. Okay, where can I hide out? Can I hide out in precious metals? No, they're down 3 and 4%. How about the quality factor? Everyone says own quality in an environment like this. No, that's down as well. And then some of the sectors that have been the better performing sectors to hide out, defensively oriented like health care, like consumer staples, they're down as well. So really the message here is you kind of patiently sitting back, you're waiting to kind of get through this environment which doesn't feel real good. I still am of the opinion you don't want to flinch here. I don't think you want to flinch and respond to this kind of roller coaster environment, say, okay, I'm going to go more cash than ownership of risk assets.
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B
Yeah, I mean it's trying to accomplish a lot through time, isn't it Brand? I mean, we're six months flat. Joe does mention the trends have flattened out. We've maybe done some damage, at least technically on some of the charts. UBS today, you know, saying expect further consolidation as we've been in for a while because obviously of all the things that we've been stewing over, oil price, credit spreads, wage growth, inflation expectations, of course, Jenny, we don't really know where that lands in terms of the fundamentals. At some point though, kind of, we've been living with the concerns long enough that at least you might maybe be able to make a shot that they're somewhat priced in. So how are you making that call?
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D
Well, I mean, while we have been rangebound really since October between, you know, 6600, which we bounced very nicely off the 200 day to that 6900. I mean investors are really getting a dose this year because the headlines, I mean you walked through quite a few of them, but the headlines continue to really be scaring investors. I do think that the market has a very, very rich history of climbing the wall of worry and so I think it should be comforting for investors that at this point we are just rangebound in this very tight 6600 to $60, $900 range. Because I think that if you throw all these headlines and said, what is the market going to do, you think it'd be lower from here? I do think that right now we still have, we're obviously going to go into this quiet period for earnings. Earnings continue to be strong. And so I do think we have these, you know, real headlines. Obviously, Iran is more than a headline that need to just work themselves out. And so I think we're going to continue to be in a trading range until we get a clearing, a clearing event really from Iran, which we just can't. I don't think you can just like you can game theory, but you just can't. No one can know actually when that's going to end because Trump might want it to end, but the Iranians, once again, I still think this is existential for the mullahs. So I think this is a very complicated situation for investors to sit through.
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B
Sure, yeah. I mean, I think that really anybody honest has to acknowledge nobody kind of knows anything in the market sort of trading accordingly to some degree. Although we are, Jim, still in the initial four week window, if we remember that was kind of laid out there at the beginning of the, the attacks. So who knows if we're overdue for resolution or we're just impatient. You know, the variation within the market, of course, remains pretty significant. You know, the median S and P stock this month is down more than 5% where you have the S and P down a lot less. It's also down something like 16% from its high. So are you finding things within the market that feel as if they're getting compelling?
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G
Jim?
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H
The short answer to your question, Mike, is yes, definitely. The problem with the answer is I can't give you the short answer because if you're going to buy here, you have to understand that for the next couple of weeks things may feel really lousy and you may end up kicking yourself if you buy today saying why didn't I wait a couple of days? But again, the short answer is yes, there are compelling values here. I have to just address that. My answer is given in the context of the belief that this is a one month campaign. Now, I don't, we don't know that to be the case. Nobody knows that to be the case. But if this is a one month campaign and I would like to think we'll get a clearing event, the way Brin puts it. But I don't think we will. I think we'll get a slow fizzle into some sort of normality where you start to see a slow pickup in taker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. I don't think there's going to be a signing of the Treaty of Versailles, so to speak. And in that context, one has to be aware that buying today may feel lousy tomorrow, but a year from now, or maybe not even a year from now, maybe three months from now, six months from now, it's going to be looked back on much the same way we looked back on Liberation Day, not the same event. But you know, if you looked three months back on that opportunity, it was definitely a buying opportunity.
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B
Yeah, I mean, who knows, in retrospect, maybe good. We're not going to get a Treaty of Versailles. It didn't really play out the way we hoped after that.
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H
I knew that might not be the right reference, but I meant as a point.
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B
Yeah. John Maynard Keynes has something to say about that. Bring in cnbc. Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman knows all about that. Ahead of the Fed, Steve. And of course the Fed is looking at a lot of the same issues and influences that we're trying to hash out and, and perhaps doesn't have a clear answer of how it might proceed.
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I
Yeah, I'm not sure there's any more insight than anybody around that table there, maybe even less. I think there's three forms of communications that happened today. There's the statement, there's the forecast and there is the press conference. And I think the surge in the price of oil will have an effect on all three. It's likely that you're going to get some commentary in the statement about geopolitical uncertainty as well as some change in the forecast. And what we're looking for here, Mike, is the extent to which the dots signal one or possibly no cuts in 2026. You could see what's happened to the probabilities. They cratered this morning in part after that hotter than expected wholesale price report. In addition to oil ticking up closer to the 99 level than it was this morning, around $94. And Mike, I like your framing of this, this four week window which we talked yesterday to John Kilduff and he talked about this idea that if this strait is not open by April 1, there's another level or another leg up that's going to happen to oil prices that will be much more meaningful than it's been so far.
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F
Hey, Steve, it's Joe, Good to see you. So the market has been troubled so far in 2026 by much more than obviously the challenges related to the Mideast conflict. And one of those trouble spots has been software and private credit. Any chance I get some comfort in this press conference where the chairman can convey to us that he is at least communicating with Wall street lenders and they are on top of gaining an understanding of what the real valuation of these priorities, private loans, actually might be to the software industry.
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I
I was with you all the way to the end. I don't think the Fed goes quite that far. Joe, I think you have to appreciate that the interests of the Fed and the interests of investors are somewhat different here. The Fed wants to know if what's happening in private credit, and especially with software, is something that's going to infect the money center banks about for which they're in charge and create systemic risks that will prompt them or force them to have some kind of reaction either in the markets or in policy. And I think what they're generally have said about this is investors in private credit are free to lose as much money as they possibly want or make as much money as possibly want. What they're not going to be free to do is to create some sort of big reaction in the banking system. And what I think he'll say and what he's probably, and what he has said before is that they have, they're looking at this and look at the connections to the banking system system. But I don't think you're going to get any sense about whether or not what the valuations are, whether or not their marks are right, which is the big question for investors right now.
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F
All right, so I'll correct my statement there and 100% I agree with how you eloquently explain that. But at least can we get a degree of comfort that the communication channels are open and they understand right now that there are questions surrounding a lot of these Wall street lenders and maybe a degree of clarity is needed.
- [11:14]
I
I think that's something that is definitely something that the Fed chair has said and will say again, that it's something they're looking at. It's on their radar screen. I think there was a lesson they learned from SVB which is don't let those sort of things go unnoticed and take them very seriously when they happen. And I think also, Joe, coming from the great financial crisis, it's something that they're very aware of this idea that there can be things that look like they're remote from the banking system, but end up being connected in ways they haven't figured out before. I think one of the questions you have is what are the letters of credit of some of these private credit vehicles to the banks? And if they hit a liquidity crunch, can they draw on those lines of credit? And does that all of a sudden create this kind of danger inside the banking system from private credit?
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B
Yeah. One of many topics we're going to have to cycle through in that press conference. Steve, you'll be there. You got to get going. I appreciate it.
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I
Sure.
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B
This morning, Jim, you know, everybody can kind of seize on their favorite example from history of how monetary policy interacts with a high oil price or some kind of an energy shock and the inflationary threat. So the 70s, everyone knows, didn't take, didn't get control of it. There was easing into this shock. But you go to 1990, have seen a lot of work there. The Fed was slow to ease, even though jobs were weakening. And we got the oil price shock in the first Iraq war in part because of the inflationary threat. Oh, wait, Fed went on hold for six months after, like Bear Stearns. Right. So 2011, the ECB hikes into it, and that was a mistake. And then, of course, 22, you didn't want to let it go. And the Fed didn't get ahead of it when commodity and other prices started going up. So maybe that's not really a roadmap. So what do we want from the Fed today?
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H
Yeah, well, how about if I answer the, the corollary of what do we not want?
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F
You sure?
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H
I don't want to hear any more talk about rate hikes. We had some talk about that at the last meeting. Now, okay, I know this is a very small probability of rate hikes this year, but the problem for me intellectually is I can't take it off the table. Mike, so when you were setting up that question, I was thinking, man, he's reading my mind. It would be, in my opinion, a policy mistake to raise rates in response to an oil price shock. But the problem is, is we can't rule it out because we do have some hawks on the, on the committee. And also, you know, look at today and look at other inflation indicators. We don't have inflation under control and we've kind of got a hot economy. So, I mean, that's what's, that's what's kind of keeping me up at night. Is there a possibility that we not only back out the rate cuts? Let me just put it to you this way. You know, at the beginning of 2022, late 2021, we were still talking about, we're not thinking about, even thinking about whatever the expression was, rate hikes. And then we were.
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B
That's true. Although, Brin, we came into this phase, you know, before the Iran situation flared up with the Fed already kind of on hold. You know, both the jobs situation as well as inflation were not quite at their target, but they also were in emergencies to respond to. So I wonder if the market's okay with the idea. We're going to be data dependent, we're going to get a new chair. Right. There's going to be a different orientation. And so maybe at least we can get some comfort for a few months that if nothing else, hikes are not in the offing.
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D
I think having a new chair is a game changer. And so I think that we will get rate cuts. It's not if. It's when I think that if you look at the inflation that we have, the inflation is not demand driven. And so I think when you think what tools does the Fed have to actually reduce inflation? Does raising rates do anything for housing? Does raising rates do anything for home health care? Because the lack of immigration. Does raising rates do anything for food? No. And so I think the Fed's toolbox in terms of raising rates is, would have a counter effect to it. And if anything, I think they're going to focus on jobs, focus on the uncertainty. And that's where I do think later on the year when, when war comes in, we will get rate cuts. But I do think it's important to understand this inflation is not demand driven. And so we're not having all these loans being created and the Fed can raise rates then all of a sudden lower that demand. And so I think they're really hands are tied. And so I agree with Jim. I don't think it makes any sense for them to talk about raising rates in this environment. I don't think, I think it would have the negative impact of whoever would vote for that.
- [15:46]
F
I agree with both Brin and Jim. I'll take it one step further. I actually think they should be cutting rates in this environment. I think sustained oil prices have a deflationary effect. I cited yesterday, the period between 11 and 13. If we could show the chart of oil, if we have it during that period we sustained, we had the average price of oil above $90 for that three year period. What helped in that environment? You said yes, valuations were totally correct, but also we had qe in effect, we had a very low and easy interest rate policy and that acted to offset that effect on consumers from sustained rising oil prices. And I really think sooner rather than later, if you tell me we're going to average $90 a barrel and you're going to go to the gas pump and it's going to be 365, you're going to need another rate cut.
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B
Well, I mean, I would argue too, though, you were coming out of the biggest deflationary credit shock in, you know, in memory at that point and you had underlying inflation that was way short of the target, not above the target. So, you know, we can, you can say it's analogous on some level. Certainly that's a nominal price chart right there in terms of WTI crude. In real terms, it's way lower right now and in theory should be less of a drag on growth. But I just think it's going to be interesting to see how Fed, how Powell and the committee frames it, how it all translates into, you know, the Dow plot. I still think that they're coming from a place of thinking rates are above neutral.
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F
Right.
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B
And therefore, you know, you're looking for the opportunity to get them down toward neutral. But, you know, we'll see if that thinking has been revised. Do want to switch over a little bit to some credit sensitive parts of this market? We mentioned a little bit the alternatives, but I think the banks themselves are pretty conspicuous. They can't really sustain a lot of a rally here. And I just wonder if that's just, you know, general unease with the outlook, Jim. I mean, I don't know if you're looking at individual ones and how they're acting or if it's just kind of a more or less a malaise around growth in the yield curve.
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H
Well, let me, let me start with the curious answer to your question, which is, you know, we all look at what we own first and foremost. So today I'm seeing that both sides, City and Apollo are up. That sort of catches my attention on a day that's kind of, kind of negative. And they were up yesterday. Now, no question, there's been a little bit of, a little bit of malaise. There's been a malaise in the financials. I'm having a hard time saying that this is a real fundamental credit or economic growth problem. The reason I'm having a hard time saying that is because they were gangbusters last year, the financials. I mean, it is okay if in the first quarter of 2026 they take a Pause. Take a consolidation now. Somebody may be yelling at the TV screen right now, hey, they're down. Okay? They're down. Year to date, 2025 was really, really good for these stocks. So just to be clear, Mike, where I am is this is a consolidation pause. It doesn't feel good. We've been talking a lot about the private credit worries. I think I've been consistent in saying that while there is some fraud, there are some underwriting problems. I don't see see a systemic credit problem. And in that environment, I think it's just a matter of time before the financials start gaining their pace again.
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B
I was going to just say, I know you think that, you know, in general, things have been overdone in this area. B of A was out today saying it's an opportunity to buy. For example, Aries. Apollo was also reiterated as an overweight of Piper Sandler. So it seems as if people are trying to figure out whether the companies that run these strategies have been unduly punished. We can make our assumptions about what it means for asset gathering in the future, but the stock so far over a couple of days are responding.
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D
Yeah, absolutely. And I think, you know, when you go back to last year, this all really started with First Brands and Tricolor, which, which by the way, really was not a private credit. It was JP Morgan, Barclays, etc. Are the ones, Jeffrey, that had exposure, not the private credit. I believe Apollo was short some of that debt. And so I do think that ultimately this will play itself out. The firms on the private credit side that did good underwriting, of course there's going to be losses, there's losses in investment grade credit. But the firms that did good underwriting, I think this will pass. I mean, we saw back in Covid, the BDC specifically, I think got close to 30% down. And then, you know, they did not have a lot of defaults. And then a year and a half later, they were at a better premium to Navy. I do just want to say, Mike, one thing that I think continues to get conflated where people are saying this is the 2007 CDO or 2008. The banks are part of the fractional reserve system, right? So they take our 100, they take our million dollars in the bank account, lend out 900 and only have 100 on hand. Private credit actually keeps the loans. And so I think it's a very, very different narrative today. And so that's where I feel confident in what we own. And because I do think it goes down to good Underwriting, if you're a good manager, they're going to get through whatever software, etcetera, etcetera. Just like they did in 2020 and 2022.
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B
Right. So it's certainly, it's not the same transmission mechanism, Joe. Although I guess you want to keep an eye on how it is if at all influencing, you know, credit spreads, broadly speaking. There was a, there was a deal for Qualtrics, a bond deal Bloomberg reported was pulled yesterday was a, an effort to refinance some private LBO debt.
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F
Yeah, I think you have a lot of things to, to kind of give consideration to, especially on the fundamental side. What's interesting is the big banks reported really, really good earnings and there was a very muted response to that. I think what's favorable about the financial sector relative to some other sectors like energy, you know, we suggest. Okay, you want to make sure you increase your exposure energy. Well, it's a very small weighting in the S and p. You have 76 financial names out of 500 in the S&P. 500, Jimmy, real quick on them on the math, that's about 15%. Right. Ownership. So there are places you can go to rotate as a portfolio manager. And what I'm seeing within the financial sector right now is you're seeing a rotation that's available to you. You can go to the exchanges. You could own cme, you could own ice, you could own Interactive Brokers. You could actually go back to the insurance companies. Oh well that took a pause.
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B
ICE in the exchange companies that is going to kill supposedly because of the
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F
index business, but they're trading well. Or you could go back to the insurance companies that took the pause in 25 when everyone said okay, let's own private credit and own the big banks. So the names like Travelers and Allstate and Chubb, they're working well right now. So you can make that rotation within the sector because the availability is there.
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B
Yeah, I mean the stocks are there. I just would, you know, as you use banks as a little bit of a weather vane for, you know, how people are feeling risk appetite wise and macro. That's where I wonder if it's still something that has has to prove itself.
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H
Okay, maybe it does have to prove itself. That's a good way to put it. Because what I would say is like this is a reasonable reason for banks to come down on concerns of how much they've lent to this sector. If you're positive on the sector and I'm not like wildly over the top positive, but I'm simply saying I think the risks are being overstated, then this is the consolidation, the pause that actually sets up for the next leg. Higher. Of course, I could be wrong. There's real risks here. I don't want to be blowing off the real risks. But if you're bullish on the economy, if you think that private credit maybe has some underwriting problem but not a systemic problem, then this is the pause that sets up for the next leg. Higher.
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B
All right, well, coming up, the road ahead for Disney as a new CEO takes the reins. Stock is down 10% this year. Jim owns it. What he needs from the new leadership. Plus, we'll get you set up for Micron earnings after the bell. Halftime. Back in two minutes.
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A
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- [24:03]
J
Right?
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B
And the best part, they accept Discover.
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A
Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer.
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B
Oh yeah, huh? Discover is accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby, get with the times.
- [24:16]
J
Right.
- [24:17]
A
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [24:19]
B
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [24:23]
E
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [24:30]
G
Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
- [25:15]
B
We are back. It's a new era at Disney as Josh d' Amaro takes over as CEO. Julia Boyce Boorstin joins us ahead of the company shareholder meeting, where tomorrow is set to address investors for the first time. Julia?
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K
That's right, that shareholder begin a meeting beginning in just about Half an hour tomorrow, Josh. Tomorrow takes the helm of Disney at a time when the company is facing major challenges. And some of the key issues for tomorrow include a declining linear TV business, a struggling box office with pressure to reboot key franchises, competition in streaming and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as consumer volatility impacting Disney's parks division. Now, investors are hoping that tomorrow will deliver a unified streaming strategy, an innovative approach to AI and games. It was Demaro who struck a partnership with Epic Games and that his investments made when running the Parks division, including a partnership with Abu Dhabi, will pay off tomorrow. Writing in a letter to employees this morning, quote, this transition comes at a moment when our world is changing faster than ever. While that can feel daunting at times, it is also exciting. Disney has endured and thrived for generations by meeting change with vision, ambition, integrity and optimism. Now, over the time of Bob Iger's second tenure as CEO, Disney stock vastly underperformed, up about 9% in that period, while the S&P 500 gained 6.68%. But now analysts are bullish. 85% have a buy rating on the stock. No sells. Mike.
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B
Julia. Thanks so much, Jim. Yo, Disney. It's on a 10 year basis almost exactly dead flat. However, it's probably the best legacy media stock over that period of time as well.
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H
Look, I think it's a good company. Before we talk about the stock, I think as a company it's doing the right thing things. People still want to go to the theme parks, they want to go on the cruise ships. Disney plus and the various other forms of streaming are actually doing a very good job of taking over the baton from linear television. It's not one for one in terms of dollars lost in linear television all having gone to streaming, but it's kind of coming close. And the reason I'm going on about this is because if you look at the stock, you would think like you would think, Mike, this is Disney and T 2021. When the pandemic had shut down the theme parks and debt had gone out of control. And what were they going to do? I mean, the stock is, I'm sorry, the revenues are growing, earnings per share are growing above 10% in each of the next two years. You've got a price to earnings multiple Forward multiple of 14 and you got a dividend that they're growing like crazy. So this is. You put it all together. This is one of those unfortunate times where it's uncomfortable to hold this stock. I don't think you've held it, Joe. Right. I think you've sold it. It's uncomfortable to hold it, but I think if you are patient and you wait, you are going to be rewarded. Joe, go ahead, take me down. Because you know what? You can't take me down any more than the stock has taken me down.
- [28:11]
F
So we did add it to the ETF at the end of October, 112 62. We made a whopping 18 cents when we sold it out in January at 1181 1280. Jimmy, the question that I have is I was told Disney was going to be a growth company. I was told that many years ago. How could I look at Disney as being a growth company when parks and Parks has now overtaken entertainment, when they have continually raised prices on streaming and that's been ineffective in terms of stimulating the growth and the cost of sports just continues to rise.
- [28:45]
H
Can I, Can I. Okay, thank you. I didn't, I didn't know if you were being rhetorical and asking me how you can look at it a growth company. You can't look at it from the stock price and say it's a growth company. But you can actually look at the revenue and look at the earnings per share and see growth that maybe is not like Netflix level, but growth in earnings per share that relative to the multiple is a buy here.
- [29:07]
B
Yeah, I mean, look, the thing about the company's. The parts of the company in secular decline is that they over time become a smaller part of the company.
- [29:17]
H
So to that point, linear television five years ago was 30 billion. This year it's 8 billion. Like that's done. That's in the rearview mirror.
- [29:24]
F
But what's the jewel of the business right now?
- [29:26]
H
Well, the theme parks.
- [29:28]
B
But the theme parks, plus the franchises are.
- [29:31]
F
But the theme parks take you right back to where we knew Disney to be, not to where we thought Disney was going, where it was going to be about streaming. It was going to be spinning.
- [29:40]
H
My answer, sure, because you. And the way you asked it, what is the crown jewel? No, they've got many crown jewels. They do have the studios, which, whatever is going on, Marvel, they'll figure that out. And they do have streaming, which is profitable and growing.
- [29:55]
B
All right, guys, got to leave it there. We'll settle it another time. Disney at 100. Now to Contessa Brewer with the CNBC News Update contestant.
- [30:03]
J
Hey there, Mike. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified today that Iran appears to be intact, but she says largely degraded her comments from a Senate hearing around threats to the United States. It contradicts a statement from President Trump Saturday when he said we've already destroyed 100% of Iran's military. Gabber did say, though Iran's conventional military capabilities have been largely destroyed. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillin is expressing hope that a breakthrough through could happen as the state battles historic wildfires. They burned nearly 800,000 acres of land. The governor said yesterday the turning point will come. He just didn't say when. And the WNBA has reached a verbal agreement with its player association in collective bargaining negotiations. Terms of the deal weren't announced. ESPN reports, though, that the new salary cap will be $7 million per year and that it's supermax contracts will be worth $1.4 million per year. The deal comes after months of tense negotiations between two sides. I would probably describe that more as a standoff for sure. And it's lasted longer than many people on both sides wanted it to.
- [31:12]
B
Mike it did. Finally, some resolution. Contessa, thank you. Up next, the setup on Micron ahead of earnings in Overtime. Plus, we'll debate the state of the tech trade.
- [31:27]
H
With the all new Audi Q3.
- [31:29]
F
The answer is always yes.
- [31:31]
B
Yes to adventure, yes to escape. Yes to right now, the all new Audi Q3. Made for the yes, life.
- [31:42]
A
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [31:45]
J
Right.
- [31:45]
B
And the best part, they accept Discover.
- [31:47]
A
Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer.
- [31:52]
B
Oh yeah, huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby, get with the times.
- [31:57]
J
Right.
- [31:58]
A
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [32:01]
B
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [32:05]
E
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report,
- [32:12]
G
men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
- [32:45]
B
Welcome back. Micron reporting after the bell, Joe, you own it feels like the stakes are high. This has been, you know, one of the real engines of what's left of the trade here.
- [32:55]
F
I mean, a remarkably strong, staggering type of performance here over the last six months. We got into the stock at the end of October. I think the price was somewhere around 223 and it is built upon this premise of triple divot digit, rather revenue and earnings gains because DRAM pricing is continuing to move higher and higher. Now at some point you're going to see a moderation in that DRAM pricing. Am I going to be smart enough to be able to time getting in front of it? I'm not. But in prior cycles, generally when you see that DRAM pricing begin to peak out, that's when the trouble on the other side for Micron unfold. So why I mentioned that is I think your sizing in terms of your positioning really has to take that into effect. You have to manage the position accordingly. I don't think you could be significantly overweight where we are at this stage. With the stock approaching 500, you have
- [33:46]
B
90 over 500 billion. Oh, 500, $500, 525 billion market cap.
- [33:51]
F
Right.
- [33:52]
B
50% bigger than AMD.
- [33:53]
F
Right. The 90% buy rating on the stock. The average price target I think is only 451. So it's a little below where we're trading right here. So the analyst community probably has to come up on there. You're going to get a very strong report tonight. I think the one thing you want them to answer is the potential competition that exists for their high bandwidth memory from SK, Hynix and from Samsung. There's been some announcements recently about relationships within video in that regard.
- [34:21]
B
And you know, Micron itself is adding capacity. Obviously that doesn't happen overnight, that happens over years. And Brett, it almost feels like there's an uncomfortable level of like there's a new era type talk around. Right? It's no longer so cyclical. Memory is this thing that's going to be in scarcity for who knows how long to come. As we build out capabilities, it almost seems like the memory makers are kind of going to be taking attacks on the whole system. How do you, what's your comfort level with all that?
- [34:51]
D
I mean, I do think you have to look at this. This is. There's no other time in history that we've had this much money, which is money good, right? Because we know who's spending the money pushing through all these factories, data centers, etc. And so I think that from a business perspective, Micron, Skynes and Samsung will tell you they have years of Runway. To me as an investor, you have to say, well, what's going to get priced in? I really liked Joe's analysis about you have to, you have to position this correctly because what gets priced in in. But I do believe these companies have years of visibility. They've all told that to us on the call. And so unless something meaningful changes, they're going to have that years of visibility. But look at Nvidia. Nvidia, yes, it's up 50% year to date, but the company just continues to get cheaper and cheaper from a multiple each quarter because the markets are like, hey, a lot's priced in. So we're going to cap it here probably at 200. And so I think Micron and those other two names will probably have a similar fate at some, at some point in time over the next year or so.
- [35:55]
B
Yeah, Nvidia up about 57% on a one year basis as, as I think you were mentioning there. All right, we'll see micron at 9 times earnings. I don't know if you're supposed to buy these when they're cheaper, expensive. Coming up, the big debate over ending quarterly reports. Does the committee think it's a good idea? We're going to get their take next. Welcome back. Big changes could be coming to how companies report earnings. The SEC is looking to draft a proposal to shift reporting standards away from the current quarterly cadence. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins was on squawk box earlier today talking about the possible regulatory overhaul for smaller companies.
- [36:38]
H
Maybe it makes more sense to have it semiannual. Maybe analysts will follow more smaller companies if there's less of a cadence. People even now focus more on the
- [36:50]
F
earnings calls that are done by the
- [36:53]
H
CEOs and CFOs of companies rather than necessarily the 10Q.
- [36:59]
F
So I think there are all sorts of different aspects out there that, you
- [37:04]
H
know, we should I think it's high time for us after 50 some years to ask the question and see what people say.
- [37:12]
B
So, Jim, of course this would be optional perhaps to go to every six months. Companies would have to kind of weigh this maybe the way some of them weigh whether they give formal guidance or not. But really the trade off is reduced corporate regulatory burden in exchange for less transparency and information to investors.
- [37:30]
H
I think there's going to be a lot of hot takes on this, a lot of opinions. Mine, I think is not a hot take, but it's a measure to opinion that I'd like to see us go to semiannual. And the reason is because I think the speed at which we do quarterly reporting does lead to short termism. I don't think it's an efficient use of corporate resources to be doing this every three months. I mean, I can't believe we're about to go into the next earnings reporting season feel like we just finished fourth quarter. It's just simply too soon. I want my companies that I'm investing in for the long run to be thinking in terms of years, not quarters. That's my opinion, by the way. By the way, there will probably be unintended consequences. There will probably be some negative consequence that I'm not thinking about right now. But any change is going to have unintended consequences and that can't be an impediment to trying to do something better.
- [38:18]
B
We have six month reporting in Europe. Do we have higher valuations? Do we have companies that have more strategic long term thinking? Joe, I mean I'm wondering what problem we're trying to solve here aside from presumably the information exists inside companies, what they're expecting for the next three months, whether they tell us about it or not.
- [38:36]
F
Yeah, my response is going to be a selfish one because I'm going to share insight in terms of my investment methodology which is utilizing the quality factor.
- [38:44]
B
Yeah.
- [38:45]
F
And a critical component of the quality factor is getting the most recent revenue growth from corporations we're rebalancing on a quarterly basis. So I need those growth revenue numbers every 90 days. If I'm not getting them every 90 days. If you're lengthening the lens now for me that's going to create more of a challenge And I think overall for the quality factor itself, those who are investing through that lens, it becomes a difficult environment.
- [39:09]
B
And Brent, it will be very interesting as companies if this goes into effect, tell us what they think their priorities are, whether they need to constantly promote themselves and, and talk to investors or not or whether you know, like Warren Buffett would say don't give guidance, just let the, let the performance stand for itself.
- [39:28]
D
I think these companies are going to wait to hear input of as they're taking feedback the SEC from, from all of the investors. But I do think the larger companies will continue to do this. I get it's a burden for, for smaller companies. I agree with everything Jim and Joe said. I think ultimately though I'm just to going curious like why, why are we even really wasting time Talk not we on this, this panel but why is the SEC wasting time on this right now? There's so many other regulatory burdens for small companies that want to ipo. It is not the quarterly report that is preventing companies from going public. It's the bazillions of other filings they have to do in able to become a public company. So I would like to see some deregulation from that front versus the. Just like the quarterly earnings numbers. The quarterly earnings report.
- [40:15]
B
Yeah. Again, I'm sure they, they added up every three months. No matter what, we'll see how it goes. Coming up, JP Morgan making a big bet on sports with a major announcement just moments ago with some serious star power. Leslie Picker is standing by at JP Morgan HQ with the big money details. Halftime. We'll be right back. Welcome back. JP Morgan announcing moments ago a new dedicated wealth management unit for athletes. Our Leslie Picker joins us live from JP Morgan's headquarters with the firm's wealth management CEO Kristen Lemkow and three time WNBA champ Asia Wilson. Leslie, take it away.
- [40:53]
L
Mike, thank you so much. Yeah, we just had a flyby from Tom Brady as well. Missed him by a few seconds. But really happy to be here. Thank you both for joining us and really want to get into what you're doing with this partnership. But Asia, before we get into that, it's been a very big day for the wnba. Big news coming out with the WNBA and the Players association reaching that very landmark, groundbreaking verbal agreement after a long, drawn out negotiation. What's your reaction to what's out there?
- [41:25]
M
I'm super excited. Obviously, we'll be playing this summer and that's what we wanted to get to at the end. But this is a huge day for us and for our league. And I'm very just appreciative of our players association, our ec, that they just continued to fight for us at the table. Even when things were getting crazy and long, long nights, early mornings, they were always there fighting for us. And that's what it's all about. Like, we knew we were hopefully going to get to this point. Glad we get into it at a good time. But no, I'm just super excited to be able to play but also reap what we've earned and what we deserve. So it's a, it's a special day in the wnba.
- [41:56]
L
Yeah, absolutely. In the past, some players have been outspoken, maybe a little critical of the commissioner, Kathy Engelbert. How do you feel this deal changes things? Does it change things in terms of leadership?
- [42:08]
M
I mean, honestly, when it comes to terms of leadership, we're not even thinking about that right now. I think we're just looking at the terms of like, we get to play, we get what we've deserved and what we've earned. And we're going to go out there and continue to be who we are. And I think that's what's so special about our league, is that we can really compartmentalize a lot of different things because we know that at the end of the day, we're going to. We want our pockets to look good, but also we want to perform well for our fans and the community that we've now built. So that's what we're really focusing on, is making sure that they get some good basketball. But also we're looking good while doing it. It's feeling good.
- [42:38]
L
Absolutely. Let's talk more about those pockets because
- [42:41]
K
that is why we're here.
- [42:42]
L
J.P. morgan is launching a new initiative that's meant to help foster more financial education and inclusion that's specific to the needs of athletes. And that's Kristen, why you're bringing everyone together. How are the needs of athletes, professional athletes, different than the broader cohort that you serve as CEO of Wealth Management here for JP Morgan? And how does JP Morgan plan to fill that gap?
- [43:07]
C
Well, thank you, Leslie. And that is exactly why we're here. I grew up loving sports. I grew up in Boston. Some of my favorite life memories are from sports experiences with my family. And both in this job and when I ran marketing, we dealt with a lot of athletes because JP Morgan chases such a broad corporate sponsor. And we heard the same thing over and over again, which is a lot of young athletes coming into money very suddenly. They develop unsustainable lifestyles. They don't always get great advice around them. And those are the lucky ones. And we knew that there was a gap to fill. And what's great about my business is we can take any client. I think JP Morgan is known for serving billionaires and we can do that, but we can take any client. We have 3 million clients and it runs the spectrum. And we really wanted to get advice about how to help, which is why we're here and why I'm so lucky
- [43:55]
L
to be sitting next to Asia and Asia. When you were asked to participate in the council of about nine athletes to help advise on how to foster this inclusion in terms of the athlete community. What drew you to this opportunity and what do you hope to accomplish with it?
- [44:11]
M
Yeah, I mean, it was a no brainer for me to be able to be on this council only because it helps the next generation. And like you said, I mean, we're a diverse bunch of athletes that we didn't really get to capitalize on the nil or money out the gate at a young age. But now we're starting to try to turn the page and help the youth in the next generation understand that you have to build trust, you have to build boundaries. And know exactly how you want to operate with your money. We've all been through the good, the bad, everything in between when it came to managing our money. But now we have an opportunity to share our knowledge and our education to the next generation to help them understand. Like, no, we're here for you. We've been through these things. Let's guide you. And I think I love the most and I hope that we can get out of it is just a nice partner mentorship to help young kids know that they're not by themselves. We've been through this. We have testimonies and stories to tell you exactly how we are. And if we're your role models and you want to be like us, let's try to make you better and let's help you make better decisions with your money. So it was a no brainer for me because I love to learn. I love being a part of something where we can have real conversation.
- [45:12]
L
And that's what we had today, conversation and ownership. Some of the statistics that you all shared were pretty shocking in terms of one out of every six NFL players being bankrupt and the fact that a lot of professional athletes are retired by the age of 35. How you know, given that backdrop, how would you advise athletes to be thinking about money in this environment?
- [45:35]
C
Well, I wasn't an athlete, but we are here actually really to listen to the athletes of the what's going to resonate? What are the things that are actually going to get some of these kids to listen and where might they not be willing to listen? Meg Rapinoe made a great point of I'm going to want to know how much I have to blow. Like you're not going to be able to tell me not to buy that car. But to your point, the data is really compelling about the need. The NFL made 23 billion in revenue last year, yet one out of every six players runs into financial trouble out of retirement. The average career span is about three years. There are mental health issues, there are physical health issues. And we need to do a better job of supporting athletes throughout their financial journey and hoping a lot of young kids who might aspire to be athletes, even if they're not professionals, will listen.
- [46:22]
L
Well, we look forward to watching the journey. Congratulations to both of you and thank you for taking the time to join us here on cnbc. Thanks, Leslie, Mike, I'll send it back to you.
- [46:31]
B
All right, Leslie, thanks so much. Final trades coming up next. Let's squeeze in some final trades. Brent
- [46:41]
D
Doom.
- [46:43]
B
All right, Jim Citigroup and Joe Ross Stores Ross Stores. Excellent. That does it for Halftime Fed decision in an hour. The exchange starts right after this.
- [46:56]
F
You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast.
- [47:00]
H
You can always catch us live weekdays
- [47:02]
F
at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:07]
A
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Snoring Gasping during sleep?
- [47:43]
E
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