Halftime Report: Gearing Up for a Huge Week (07/25/2025)

Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Jason Snipe, Rob Seachen
Release Date: July 25, 2025
Air Time: Weekdays 12-1 PM ET on CNBC TV

1. Market Overview and Upcoming Week's Agenda

[01:02] Scott Wapner:
Scott opens the discussion by highlighting the significant events slated for the upcoming week, including a Federal Reserve decision, mega-cap earnings reports from giants like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, as well as the looming tariff deadline. He emphasizes the market's current bullish stance, noting, "Piper Sandler says we believe this bull market still has legs to run until the end of the year."

[02:03] Jim Laventhal:
Jim echoes optimism in the short term, suggesting that earnings will "deliver" and that market momentum remains strong on a weekly basis despite some stretched positioning.

2. Speculative Trading and Market Volatility

[03:53] Jim Laventhal:
Jim cautions against the "speculative fervor" overtaking parts of the market, particularly meme stocks and high-beta sectors, stating, "The speculative fervor that is starting to overtake markets... is something you should pay attention to."

[03:53] Scott Wapner:
Scott references a Goldman Sachs note, "sharp increases in speculative trading activity historically signal above average near-term returns but poor medium-term prospects," highlighting concerns about potential market drawdowns due to speculative surges.

[04:14] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie balances the concern by pointing out the strong fundamentals, mentioning that 32% of S&P 500 companies have reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings growth. She observes, "The fundamentals on the other parts of the market are really very, very strong."

3. Earnings Highlights: Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google

Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook):

[05:12] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie anticipates a strong quarter for Meta, praising their AI monetization efforts. She notes, "AI in ads has increased 7% time spent at Facebook and 6% time spent at Instagram and price per ad is up 10%."

[05:43] Jim Laventhal:
Jim commends Meta's diversified product base and management, emphasizing their leadership in AI integration.

Amazon:

[14:25] Jason Snipe:
Jason expresses confidence in Amazon's AWS growth, highlighting its status as the largest player in the cloud market with a $120 billion business. "It's the number one player in the game, and I think you'll see continued growth."

[16:40] Stephanie Link:
She adds that Amazon's profitability is improving, with North American margins expected to reach about 6.5%, and anticipates an acceleration in operational efficiency.

Microsoft:

[10:00] Jim Laventhal:
Jim underscores Microsoft's role in AI advancements, positioning it as a beneficiary of increased capital spending in the tech sector.

Apple:

[17:07] Jim Laventhal:
Jim addresses Apple's premium valuation but remains neutral, focusing on its diversified product offerings and strong management team.

[17:55] Jason Snipe:
Jason emphasizes the need for Apple to enhance its generative AI strategy to sustain earnings revisions, noting, "They need to pull a rabbit out of the hat with regards to generative AI."

Google:

[05:43] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie highlights Google's increased capital expenditure by $10 billion, reinforcing the strength of the AI narrative and future growth prospects.

4. Federal Reserve Decision and Economic Outlook

[22:20] Rob Seachin:
Rob discusses the President's comments on the Fed, suggesting that any hint of rate cuts beyond September and December might not align with the Fed's current stance. He notes, "The Fed's going to be interesting given the spectacle of yesterday at the Federal Reserve building."

[24:10] Rob Seachin:
Rob scrutinizes the interaction between President Biden and Fed Chair Powell, interpreting Powell's demeanor as resistant to immediate rate cuts.

[25:44] Scott Wapner:
Scott speculates on potential Fed language adjustments, such as considering rate changes if tariff effects remain muted, but remains skeptical about imminent rate cuts.

5. Trade Negotiations: US-EU Relations

[28:29] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie updates on US-EU trade talks, mentioning European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement of a meeting in Scotland to discuss transatlantic trade relations before the August 1 tariff deadline. She states, "Maybe we will get a deal in time."

[29:08] Jason Snipe:
Jason highlights the positive impact of reduced trade policy uncertainty, suggesting that companies are more inclined to expand and invest due to growing profits and cheaper capital.

[30:36] Scott Wapner:
Scott ties the improved trade negotiations to IBM's positive outlook, reinforcing the theme of economic resilience.

6. Sector Spotlight: Materials and Gold Mining

[40:51] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie and Dom Chu delve into the materials sector, particularly gold mining stocks. Newmont Mining and Freeport McMoRan stand out, with Newmont up ~75% year-to-date and Freeport up ~17%. Analysts are bullish, with target prices suggesting substantial upside.

[42:10] Stephanie Link:
She clarifies her position on Freeport, emphasizing its copper revenue, which constitutes 74% of its revenues. She explains, "If copper continues to be strong, that's $200 million in EBITDA per $0.10 per pound change in copper."

[43:02] Scott Wapner:
Scott addresses the lack of gold exposure in their portfolio, prompting a discussion on the role of gold as a hedge.

[43:35] Jason Snipe:
Jason reiterates his position on gold as a hedge against extreme scenarios but doesn't consider it a core investment, emphasizing a strong dollar and continued foreign investment in American assets.

7. Company Calls of the Day

Gilead Sciences:

[36:09] Scott Wapner:
Needham upgrades Gilead to a buy with a $133 price target, citing positive survey results for their HIV franchise.

[36:31] Jim Laventhal:
Jim supports the upgrade, highlighting Gilead's high-quality and reasonable valuation, "This is a great way to get quality exposure at a reasonable price."

Chipotle Mexican Grill:

[37:16] Stephanie Link:
Stephanie remains cautious about Chipotle, noting the recent earnings miss and questioning the sustainability of its reversal, "I have to figure out if I'm... going to be buying more."

Procter & Gamble (PG):

[39:50] Jason Snipe:
Despite JPMorgan downgrading PG to neutral, Jason continues to hold, pointing to 7 out of 10 categories improving organically and a solid dividend yield.

8. Additional Highlights

AstraZeneca:

[45:19] Jason Snipe:
Jason sees AstraZeneca as a breakout candidate due to its attractive valuation, diverse product portfolio, and strong pipeline, despite recent underperformance in the healthcare sector.

Qualcomm:

[46:28] Jim Laventhal:
Jim discusses Qualcomm's diversification away from handsets into automotive and IoT, anticipating improved performance in the next quarter.

Las Vegas Sands:

[31:03] Scott Wapner:
Stephanie notes positive earnings from Las Vegas Sands, particularly in Singapore and Macao, and anticipates further market share gains.

Workday:

[32:09] Jim Laventhal:
Jim recommends adding Workday to the portfolio, citing its affordable valuation and critical role in corporate operational efficiency with its AI product suite.

9. Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

Scott concludes the episode by touching on sectoral performances, mentioning the strong finish in industrials and materials, and previews the next reporting segment. He emphasizes the importance of staying informed about market movements and upcoming earnings reports.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner: "These high beta, very expensive parts of the market is something you should pay attention to." [03:12]

• Stephanie Link: "The fundamentals on the other parts of the market are really very, very strong." [04:23]

• Jason Snipe: "If copper continues to be strong, that's $200 million in EBITDA per $0.10 per pound change in copper." [42:15]

Conclusion

The episode of Halftime Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, emphasizing the balance between strong earnings fundamentals and the potential risks posed by speculative trading activities. Key highlights include optimistic forecasts for major tech companies, cautious optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, ongoing positive developments in US-EU trade negotiations, and lucrative opportunities within the materials sector, particularly in gold and copper mining. The discussion underscores the importance of diversified investments and staying vigilant about market trends to navigate the forthcoming busy trading week effectively.