Halftime Report 10/21/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report – October 21, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Wapner and the “Investment Committee”—Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, and Jim Leventhal—break down a historic day as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits an all-time high. They discuss the strong macroeconomic backdrop, the ongoing earnings season, rate cut expectations, froth in commodities and speculative stocks, quality vs. growth, the resilience of megacap tech, shifts in financials, and major M&A speculation. Several major stocks—including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix, and Goldman Sachs—are analyzed in-depth, with fresh commentary on media M&A and the day’s biggest movers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Outlook: Strength, Breadth, & Earnings

• Backdrop: Stocks are higher; the Dow hits a record. Yields are falling, with the 10-year below 4% ([01:13]).
• Earnings Season: 86% of companies have beaten estimates, with a greater breadth in earnings growth emerging beyond just the Mag 7 ([02:20], Jason Snipe).
• Economic Strength: Q3 GDP tracking 3.9% per Atlanta Fed, with both consumer and manufacturing sectors strong. AI and Capex remain tailwinds ([03:23], Stephanie Link).

“I like the breadth story that is starting to get some oxygen, and that’s why I continue to like this market.”
—Jason Snipe [02:20]

“It’s consumer and manufacturing, AI, and the renaissance that’s happening there… earnings have been really good so far. The banks were off the charts—big six off the charts.”
—Stephanie Link [03:23]

2. Commodities Correction: Gold & Silver Sell-Off

• Gold & Silver Plunge: Gold drops 5%, its worst day since 2013; silver falls nearly 7% ([04:34], Scott Wapner).
• Speculation Unwind: Over-speculation is unwinding, which is seen as a healthy correction in the context of a secular bull market for precious metals ([05:49], Jim Leventhal).

“What is going on today in the precious metals is exactly what you want to see happen. It’s healthy, a self-correct.”
—Jim Leventhal [06:07]

3. Froth & Rotation: Risk vs. Quality

• Speculative Areas: Debate over froth in gold, nuclear, and biotech. Excessive speculation is being corrected, especially in unprofitable stocks and high-flying sectors ([05:05], Scott Wapner; [09:24], Jim Leventhal).
• Quality Factor Ascending: October sees “quality” stocks outperform as momentum and speculative areas cool ([09:24], Jim Leventhal).
• Earnings & Margins: Expectation that quality companies will win out post-earnings, with margin acceleration cited ([10:53], Stephanie Link).

“There has to be a handoff at some point to quality, and I think we’re at the early stages of that… that’s going to be the theme in ‘26.”
—Jim Leventhal [09:24]

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4. Megacap Tech: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, & Meta

Apple's Momentum and Valuation Debate

• On cusp of $4T valuation; some trimming positions despite positive momentum ([11:20]–[14:02]).
• Valuation/Narrative Split:
  • Snipe: Trimmed due to overweight position and wants to diversify as market breadth improves ([14:02], Jason Snipe).
  • Link: Not willing to pay a big premium for Apple’s current 8% growth; sees Meta and Amazon as more compelling valuations ([16:09], Stephanie Link).

“31 times for 8% growth is just not compelling.”
—Stephanie Link [14:26]

Amazon's Setup and Rotation

• Poised for breakout above $230, position size increased to 6% ([16:45], Jason Snipe).
• AWS (cloud) expected to reaccelerate; lowest valuation in years ([16:45]).
• *Big Cap Tech moves in waves, but when out of a range, Amazon, like others, tends to surge ([18:30], Joe Terranova).

Alphabet’s Competitive Threat: OpenAI’s Browser

• OpenAI surprise announcement of “ChatGPT Atlas” browser sends Alphabet down 3% ([19:53], Stephanie Link).
• Debate over whether new AI-powered search products can threaten Google's dominance.
• *Terranova: Threats are real but too early to declare a winner; expects Alphabet’s earnings power to remain robust ([21:01]–[22:36]).

“I’m not giving up on Alphabet… I find the multiple attractive. The business is going strong.”
—Joe Terranova [21:01]

Meta and Amazon: Relative Value

• Meta’s margins up, 20% growth for 21x PE vs Apple’s 31x for 8%: Link is more bullish on Meta ([16:09]).
• Amazon offers potential catch-up upside due to lagging Mag 7 peers YTD ([16:09])

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5. Media M&A: Warner Brothers Discovery Up for Sale

• *David Faber reports WBD’s board has decided to put the company up for sale, following talks with Paramount. Potential other suitors include Comcast (parent company) and Netflix, though significant regulatory hurdles exist ([23:35], David Faber).
• *Speculation continues over what combination—if any—might succeed, with a Paramount deal seen as having clearer regulatory approval path ([27:18]).

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6. Notable Stock Moves & Calls

Netflix Earnings Preview

• Stock consolidating after strong run YTD (up 39%), looking for next catalyst from earnings tonight ([29:29], Jim Leventhal).
• Key: Use of AI to boost margins, content strategy, and global engagement are under watch ([30:12], Jim Leventhal; [30:45], Jason Snipe).

Cleveland Cliffs Volatility

• Discussed rare earths, steel tariffs, and the narrative turnaround for the company, with Terranova buying more during the show ([31:12]–[33:59]).

“The narrative is changing in many ways... auto demand is picking up... the story has changed.”
—Joe Terranova [32:07]

Goldman Sachs & Financials

• Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan, but panel remains constructive due to fundamentals, trading and IB revenue, and improved profitability metrics ([37:54]–[39:01]).
• David Solomon (Goldman CEO): No systemic risk evident; credit issues idiosyncratic, not broad ([39:21]).
• Link underscores financial sector’s robust capital positions and rising profitability ([40:15]).

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7. Other Movers: Industrials & Defense

• GE Aerospace: Boosts earnings forecast; strong engine demand, great management and margin performance ([43:42], Stephanie Link).
• Lockheed Martin: Stock dips despite beat-and-raise due to conservative guidance; strong demand continues, buyback activity cited ([44:27], Joe Terranova).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The consumer is fine. Gasoline prices are down 18% YTD. Food input costs are coming down. Rents are coming down. All of this is really good for the consumer.”
  —Stephanie Link [03:23]

• “If you do not own precious metals, you want to make sure you get an allocation.”
  —Jim Leventhal [07:28]

• “Quality will win out, but it’s early on right now in terms of earnings season for quality companies.”
  —Stephanie Link [10:53]

• “I also think, to Steph’s point... in 2026, do I have to think about reshaping my risk in an environment where valuations are stretched? Even though you could argue Apple’s valuation is stretched, it could be defined as a company that’s quality for sure.”
  —Jim Leventhal [12:05]

• “I’m actually going to buy some more [Cleveland Cliffs] for myself right now.”
  —Joe Terranova [33:59]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|--------------| | Market Set-Up, Dow Record, Panel Intros | [01:02] | | Earnings Strength & Market Breadth | [02:20]–[03:23] | | Commodities Correction (Gold/Silver) | [04:34]–[06:07] | | Speculation vs. Quality, Biotech, Rotation | [09:24]–[10:53] | | Apple, Meta, Amazon Debate | [11:20]–[16:45] | | Alphabet Threat (OpenAI Browser) | [19:53]–[23:16] | | Warner Brothers M&A Reporting | [23:35]–[27:18] | | Netflix Earnings Preview | [29:29]–[31:05] | | Cleveland Cliffs Volatility | [31:12]–[33:59] | | Goldman/FI Commentary, David Solomon | [37:54]–[39:53] | | GE Aerospace & Lockheed Results | [43:42]–[44:59] |

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Conclusion

The October 21, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report spotlighted the continued strength in markets thanks to robust earnings and consumer tailwinds, even as speculative excesses unwind in pockets like commodities and biotech. The team debated the future leadership of the market as the rally broadens, particular valuation standouts (Meta, Amazon), the new competitive threat to Alphabet from OpenAI, and major M&A rumblings in media. The overall consensus: maintain exposure to both “quality” and selective growth, stay vigilant for rotation, and prepare for more volatility as leadership evolves and earnings roll in.

Transcript

[Stephanie Link]

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. We're following all that. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the setup for stocks, they are higher again today. Lots of moving parts as Karl was just talking about in these markets. Joining me to discuss for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe and Jim Leventhal. We do have a bit of a mixed picture but as Carl said, Dow hits a new all time high. Yields are lower. The 10 year below 4% saw it last at $3.95. We'll watch all of that. We are of course getting into the heart of earnings season. BlackRock's Rick Reeder, he was with me yesterday on closing bell. He said the setup remains really good. Listen, I think there's a couple of things at play.

[Joe Terranova]

One, you've got an economy that's operating at a pretty good level and we just printed, or we think you printed, second quarter gdp three eight third quarter.

[David Faber]

We think is running three three gun economy is operating at pretty good level and you've got a fed that's got.

[Joe Terranova]

To bring rates down and you've got a dynamic where corporate earnings are pretty good.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, that's Rick Reeder. He lays it out. Jason Snipe, economy good rate cuts come in. Earnings are going to be good. Is he right on the money?

[Jason Snipe]

I think he is. Scottish 86% of companies have beat so far this year. Now the earnings beat rate is slightly lower than the industry average at 8 and a half percent. So the beat rate has been about 5 and a half 5.9 I should say. What I'm excited about going forward is their earnings story for the rest of the of the index. Right. The 493. So if we look at the MAGS and MAG7 earnings growth this year, it's about 15% into this quarter. The rest is looking at 6.7%. But going into Q3 of 2026 that that number starts to converge looking at 19% MAG7 earnings growth to 15% of the others. So for me, I like the breath story that is starting to get some oxygen and that's why I continue to like this market. We're always focused on earnings here.

[Scott Wapner]

You like the reader story?

[Stephanie Link]

I love the reader story.

[Scott Wapner]

You agree with that 100% earnings, economy rate cuts 100%. We're running investing mag seven capex.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah. I mean yes, the economy is growing at 3.9%. Actually the Atlanta Fed track our most recent number. It is certainly helped by AI, but the consumer is also doing their part. Look what Just Coke just reported today. They guided for 5 to 6% organic revenue growth. That's huge. Huge. They said the consumer is fine. Low end, not so much. But that always is the case. What's also interesting to me, Scott, is that not only did we talk about they have consumer has jobs, they've got wages. Now you're starting to see commodity prices actually come down. Gasoline prices are down 18% year to date. Food input costs are starting to come down. The even home prices in certain pockets of the country, namely the Southeast, are coming down. Rents are coming down. All of this is really good for the consumer. So I'm not in this camp of air is generating all of the growth. And if we didn't have AI, we would have zero percent growth. I think it's consumer and manufacturing AI and the renaissance that's happening there. And yes, we do have the Fed that's starting to cut Kutty going away at some point. And then yeah, I mean earnings have been really good so far. The banks were off the charts. I know we're going to talk about that. The big six off the charts.

[Scott Wapner]

Speaking of commodities, it's worth noting today gold's getting hammered. It's the worst day since 2013. Take a look at that. Silver getting crushed. That's a considerable story. I mean you don't see gold down 5% that often. Silver is a bigger decline of almost 7%. That's the worst day since April. So I gave you the reader readout, if you will. Of all the good. Right. People know the good.

[Jason Snipe]

Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

There Is according to some though a lot of froth around the edges.

[Jason Snipe]

Okay.

[Scott Wapner]

Bank of America talks about that today. They don't say it's in the core as they look at the core, but around the edges. Look at the gold stocks, look at nuclear stocks. You can look at gold stocks year to date. Those gains are crazy. GDX up more than 100%. Newmont up 132 and so on and so forth. Nuclear Oklo, Oklahoma is up 600%. Is there a problem in a certain part of the market with too much froth that needs to come out? Has the run up in gold been too dramatic? And some of the other metals like, like silver.

[Jim Leventhal]

It becomes a problem when the market does not efficiently correct the over speculation and maybe to certain extent extent the excessive leverage. What is going on today in the precious metals is exactly what you want to see happen.

[Scott Wapner]

It is healthy a self correct.

[Jim Leventhal]

The value of the US dollar has risen so far month to date. The dollar is up again today. Let's talk specifically about the precious metals.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's do it because new month Newmont's the worst stock in the s and P500, down 9%. That's yours.

[Jim Leventhal]

Okay. Down 9%. The context of a much larger appreciation for the course of 2025. But it doesn't feel good today. Okay. Why is gold experiencing what it's experiencing? Number one, without question, you have reached a moment in precious metals where you could define the environment as having excessive speculation. No doubt about that. Here's the evidence to support it. Last Thursday and Friday the gold Options Market did 2 million shares on each day. That's a historic record. In addition to that, volatility in the precious metals is at its highest level since 1979. And this is all happening without what is required in the commodities complex, which is your weekly commitment of traders report. You're not getting that from the CFTC because of the government shutdown. So no question you have excessive speculation and that is correcting right now in the precious metals. But it's healthy. The fundamental, the secular bull market for precious metals remains in place and on a pullback. If you do not own precious metals, you want to make sure you get an allocation.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Farmer Jim, how do you, how do you see things as you're digging around your property hoping to, to strike gold and other metals that might be under the tundra of the Ravenfall Ranch?

[Joe Terranova]

I feel pretty good about things. I do. I mean I think the thing that we're answering all these questions in a context of a market that's had a heck of a rally, whether it's year to date or three years, you know, we take, I'm sure everybody on the panel takes a lot of calls from clients saying, doesn't this market have to go down soon? Isn't it too expensive? Look, those comments can be true, but it still means that the market can go higher and probably will go higher. It's hard to sell in this environment. If you're a professional money manager, you don't want to take the risk of getting behind your benchmark or, or if you are behind your benchmark, you're desperate to catch up. So any dip gets bought. If you're a retail investor, you don't want to take capital gains right now. And so all the fundamentals we've been talking about combined with that technical picture tell me that we're likely to rally into year end. Can we get a pullback? Sure, but they've been bought so quickly that I don't think you're going to get more than a 3% pullback. One last comment, because Stephanie and Jason, you both talked about earnings. Let's remember the earnings estimates in aggregate coming into this quarter were not really revised downwards and there was a certain concern that maybe that was too high a bar and maybe it wouldn't get cleared. Well, so far it is getting cleared very nicely. As Jason and Stephanie pointed out, the bank's metrics across the board, especially credit delinquencies, pretty darn good.

[Scott Wapner]

Anybody care about what Torsten Slok over to Paul has been talking about, especially as it relates to the Russell that unprofitable stocks are beating. Profitable ones really started to diverge as you got into the beginning areas of the fall. As you see, they're sort of hand in hand. And then as you get into September, you have a bit of a divergence there. Negative EPS starting to rise, whereas positive EPS was starting to fall.

[Jim Leventhal]

Absolutely. You're concerned about that because if there's not a handoff to quality, then you have the setup we had in 2021 all over again. I'm actually encouraged by what we're seeing so far in the month of October where, as I mentioned yesterday, quality is outperforming once again. Quality is up in the month while momentum is down. So on a day like today, we are highlighting the correction in some of the speculative areas of the market that have rallied so significantly. You're seeing that the quality factor again is stepping forward today and volatility is down once again today. So you go out, out, you could buy that Insurance. So I don't think that we could have ever expected that the non profitable companies would continue to be the hallmark of what the secular bull market is. There has to be a handoff at some point to quality and I think we're at the early stages of that and I think that's going to be the theme in 26.

[Scott Wapner]

What do we think?

[Jason Snipe]

You know, I think to Joe's point, I think we do need some balance here. I think part of it is obviously the cutting cycle that is underway which is giving some oxygen to the speculative favor, that fever that you're talking about. So the name, the names that we've been talking about obviously this week and over the past couple of weeks is what's going on in biotech. Lot of unprofitable names in that sector. However, the M and A cycle I think is going to really get some fuel going into next year. So I think you just have to be, you have to really evaluate the whole picture and understand the narratives to really understand what's going on under the surface.

[Stephanie Link]

I think at the end of the day after earnings season, quality will win out. But it's so early on right now in terms of earnings season for quality companies. So I think that eventually they will shine and not only will they shine on earnings, but they're going to shine on margins. Margins are going to accelerate from here and that's why I'm so optimistic. That's because the economy is growing and that feeds right into earnings and that feeds right into the margin structure story which is operating leverage for the earnings picture.

[Scott Wapner]

Apple doesn't meet your quality standards apparently because you don't have it in the Jyoti. But it's on the cusp of $4 trillion in market cap. It needs about 6 more bucks to 6,953 is where Apple gets to 4 trillion in market cap. The stock is already extending its record high. You own it personally, but as I said, it did not meet the at least one part of your metric. If not because the momentum obviously didn't.

[Jim Leventhal]

Didn'T meet both at the end of July. Remarkably, the appreciation, the significant appreciation has been post August.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's look at the, let's look at the chart because I want to, I want to see from let's look at August to now. Yeah, let's, let's look at that.

[Jim Leventhal]

So it has been the struggle with lifting the revenue growth that's been the challenge. On the core quality side, I think that China now coming back once again as a positive catalyst that contributed to that revenue growth is going to embolden the story for Apple. Look, I can't sit here for compliance reasons and tell you what we're going to do on October 31st, but it certainly looks like a really good candidate when you're measuring quality and momentum. I also think the Steph's point, when you look at Apple and you see this technical breakout that we're having, it is a company that kind of checks the box when you're thinking to yourself, okay, in 26, do I have to think about reshaping my risk a little bit in an environment where valuations are stretched? And even though you could make the argument Apple's valuation is stretched, it certainly could be defined as a company that's quality for sure.

[Scott Wapner]

Price Target goes to 290 at Wells. It goes to 279 at Goldman Sachs. Ives at Wedbush says the street is still Jason underestimating the iPhone 17 cycle.

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, listen, iPhone 17 numbers up 14% between China and the States. Right. For the, for the 17. You know, you know that I trimmed it last week and that's kind of because of the run it's had since August. But for me, as Joe, you just alluded to it 32 times forward. Right. 8% growth rate. You know, this is a, this is a tough one in a lot of respects and I know that's always the story with this name. But as I look forward and this is the reason we didn't sell it outright, I do think the innovation story is going to start to hit the name next year.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, but I mean, why sell any part of it when it's regaining its momentum? Yeah, no, I mean it's like it sits it out. It sits it out and then it finds itself and the first chance you get, you're taking a trim on it rather than riding the momentum. I'll get you in step.

[Jason Snipe]

Part of it for me was I was overweight the name. I'm now market weight. So I'm kind of, I'm comfortable with the position. And to my point earlier, in looking at the broadening out trade, I want to look at other areas of the market where I see real momentum. Yes, there's been a lot of upgrades yesterday and that was great. The Stock was up 4% percent. But for me, I think it's the 493 and other sectors that I think produce for me going forward, I don't.

[Stephanie Link]

Know, I mean, 31 times for 8% growth is just not.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, that's the knock. That's, that's the not compelling.

[Stephanie Link]

And I don't think the 17 is going to be super cycle. I really don't. I think 18 could be because we don't even. They don't even have AI.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I know but the numbers, the numbers though already suggest that it's going to be a pretty darn upgrade. Good upgrade cycle.

[Stephanie Link]

It might be fine and services will be the bright spot for sure. But I just don't. I still don't think it's not going to lift the growth rate. It's not going to lift the 8% growth rate.

[Jim Leventhal]

You incorporate the fact that potentially they will deliver at some point on. Because that's not built into stock price.

[Stephanie Link]

I could, I could wait until the second half of next year and let's see. And we'll figure that out.

[Scott Wapner]

Would you be willing to pay for it if you don't want to pay 31 times? What I mean the market's at 23 times. You don't think it deserves a premium?

[Stephanie Link]

Not with that growth rate.

[Scott Wapner]

What would you be willing to pay.

[Stephanie Link]

For it 23 times market multiple. I just think that there are other names like for example Metta. Metta is growing 20% operating margins last quarter expanded 500 basis points. The year of the efficiency is now the decade of the efficiency. So I think operating margins go much higher. The stock is trading at 21 times for 20% growth that I pay for. And I have no idea why it's lagged the Mag 7 so far year to date. But I think it's going to play catch up and I like it very much. And Amazon throw that one there in there too because that stock is on nothing. And that valuation at 13 times EBITDA when historically it's traded 18 times. And I do not think US is losing market share at all. I think it's just a lot of large numbers. They're growing 17% versus Google and Microsoft at 30%. I got it. But they're much, much bigger so. And they also have the retail components component and they have the advertising component. So those two are much more compelling to me than Apple.

[Scott Wapner]

Morgan Stanley expects matter to move meaningfully on earnings. They look for better than expected ad results and a guide on engagement growth accelerating B of A is bullish quote. Look for revenue to beat to support investment returns. They like a buy Deutsch is asking can they shake off the overhangs? Right. Steph talks about some of that's kept the stock from outperforming some of its peers. Amazon is an interesting one. As we said Bill Baruch joins us now because he agrees with Steph. He's bought more of that name. Tell me more.

[Jason Snipe]

You can't have a quality conversation without mentioning Amazon. The stock is trading at 25 times forward earnings right now. It's one of its lowest valuations ever. We expect AWS to re accelerate maybe 19% year over year revenues profitability to reaccelerate. But really kind of got us on yesterday to really pull the trigger. Tested the 200 day moving average on Friday. It responded into yesterday the broader market, another clean constructive pullback. That's been the trend. You pull back, you have this nice big, you know, kind of bottom out really quickly and then rally. I think the market in general is setting the stage for new record high, new record highs maybe after today or tomorrow. And we like to look at opportunities just, just within that type of, you know, that's our framework. So if Amazon gets out above 230 I think you're also going to see those flows as a name that hasn't done much this year that gets above 230, a lot of people are going to chase it. So I think that just a really great backdrop here to be adding and increasing Amazon. We were at a 4 1/2% position. We have increased it to a 6% position. I've talked about the cash that we've trimmed names over the last couple of months so we're getting that cash to work and I think there's no better place right now than to look at Amazon ahead of earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

It's your largest position now?

[Jason Snipe]

Yes, it is our largest position. It's, you know, a lot of these big cap tech names. We have neck and neck. Nvidia is just an eyelash below it. So we increased in our main portfolio but also our concentrated portfolio, it's now an 11% position. So it's done nothing year to date. And I wouldn't be surprised to see this finish up 10 to 15% on the year.

[Scott Wapner]

Bill, thanks, appreciate that Update on this, this purchase, everybody owns, owns this name.

[Joe Terranova]

I'm big in it too and I'm a big believer. Look at all of these Mag 7 names. They seem to go through periods in which they do nothing. We've seen it with Apple over the last couple of years. We've seen it with Alphabet until recently. And there's always a reason specific to that company why it goes through a lot of. But when they come out, they come out hard. And I expect that's what's going to happen with Amazon as well. I mean there's no reason to doubt the consumer right now. There's no reason to doubt the AI Capex build out and its benefits to Amazon Web Services. I'm big in it. I'm going to stay big in it.

[Scott Wapner]

Joe.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, I mean, I've said I think it's more of a 2026 story. Unfortunately, in 2025 the market is not paying attention to valuation situation. That doesn't confirm that that's the right thing or the wrong thing to do. It's just not. So in that environment you're going to see Amazon is underperforming. And right now the stars clearly are in video and Alphabet and Apple. And I think that's where as you move towards the end of the year, you're going to see a lot of attention paid. I think in 2026, Amazon represents itself.

[Scott Wapner]

There's an interesting story in the market today. It is Alphabet, which is down 3%. It's a pretty decent decline for that name, down almost 8 bucks. On a post from OpenAI on X, MacKenzie Segalus joins us now with some reporting on what could be causing this decline in shares of Google Mac.

[Stephanie Link]

So we saw OpenAI announced a surprise livestream. It starts in about 40 minutes from now and the Internet is buzzing with speculation that it could debut a new AI powered web browser. And I went to the YouTube link that is going to be hosting this live stream featuring Sam Altman and they're calling it Chat GPT Atlas, our new browser. They say in the same link that it's now available globally on Mac OS, Windows iOS and Android. It'll be coming soon. This kind of agentic browser would go beyond search, ostensibly navigating and acting on your behalf, which is a direct threat to Google's core business. And Sam Altman has hinted at this ambition for years now. With Chat CBT now claiming 800 million weekly users, OpenAI could finally have the scale to take a real swing. And Scott, unlike Perplexity and others which haven't dented Google's grip, this could mark a turning point in Google's dominance.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so it's one o' clock Eastern, so we're looking at about 40 minutes from now. Mackenzie. Thank you, Mackenzie Segalis. We'll see what happens. But you're the chief defender, chief defending officer, the chief of Alphabet.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

You want to take a shot at this one?

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah. I think every competitive threat like this announcement needs to be taken seriously. By no means do I want to sound blase about it, however, I think we still have a horse race going on between Many, including Open Air, including Alphabet, including your meta, Stephanie, as far as who's going to be the dominant leader coming out. But that coming out process is going to be a year, two years from now. And I'm not giving up on, on Alphabet right now. I find the multiple attractive. I find there's good momentum in the shares. Yes, it's down 3%, but it's, you know, that's almost from the all time high. There's good momentum in the name. I think the business is going strong. But I will look to the earnings report coming up in a couple of weeks to see if that search traffic is still hanging in there.

[Scott Wapner]

This, what does that mean, still hanging in there? What does that mean?

[Joe Terranova]

This, this question of competitive threats is still there?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, obviously it's still there. What do you mean?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, I'll tell you what I mean. What I mean is that the last earnings report, it did a lot to put to bed or at least assuage concerns that their business, their core business of search was getting eaten into by the new AI chat features. And if we get one more quarter in which search traffic shows that it's really not just hanging in there but doing well at Alphabet, I think these questions will still linger, but they won't have the impact that they have had in this.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's be clear, their search is going to continue to do well. It's a bit of a vagary. Well, whatever that means. Would you submit to the idea that given what they may OpenAI may announce today and who knows what is announced elsewhere, that their dominance within search is at risk?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, I think what you just said is tautological.

[Jason Snipe]

Okay.

[Joe Terranova]

Because when we talk about their dominance and search, if we go back 10, 15 years ago, it was only Google, right? That was a verb. You Google things now, you ask chat, those sorts of things. So the dominance has been eaten into the question that I'm trying to answer, or at least that I perceive not from you, Scott, but from the market in general. Is, is that dominance going to become a pervasive weakness in the earnings power of Alphabet? And emphatically I don't think so. I think when we look at the AI features that, that Gemini and other things regarded by Alphabet that they have, I think those are potent competitors. The verdict is still out on who will win the race and it's going to take years.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, that's fair. One of the other big stories of the day came from one of our very own, David Faber, earlier reporting on Warner Brothers Discovery putting itself essentially up for sale. David Joins us now with some details to add to to that report. David, what do you know?

[David Faber]

Yeah, Scott, of course continue to report on this, as you say, Warner Brothers this morning ultimately in a press release saying we're for sale. This after what we've been reporting on has been weeks of conversations with Paramount which has been mounting an effort to buy Warner Brothers Discovery. A lot of back and forth there done privately, ultimately resulting in a decision by Warner Brothers Discovery, its CEO David Zaslav, its board, board of directors to put itself up for sale and essentially see what else may be out there before perhaps deciding to enter into a deal with Paramount. Clearly at least not feeling that Paramount got to a place that would have been the equivalent of at least what that board and Mr. Zaslav feel would be the value created by the so called spinoff plan that they had underway, namely splitting the company into its studio and streaming business and into its global networks business business. And my understanding is there may have been a lot of back and forth between the two in terms of Paramount explaining why it believed the targets that Warner Brothers Discovery was looking at for price and for EBITDA in let's call it a couple of years out, were not going to be something that would be attained. Nor would the multiple, nor would therefore the underlying stock price they may have been talking about as high as what, in the low 30s? All that said said, as we reported earlier, at least in terms of indications of interest, may include the likes of our parent company Comcast and Netflix. But in the last couple of hours, certainly just continuing to sort of work through what that would mean and what that might look like. You know, there are a lot of gating issues there as we like to say. Comcast, our parent company, has a roughly $29 stock price. How would mount a bid? And again this would be for the studio and streaming business. They would actually restructure these so called spin offs so that global networks would be spun off and remain co would be the studio and streaming business. So any potential buyer now would essentially be buying the studio and streaming business given the change in the structure of the spin. I know it gets complicated, but essentially it becomes a taxable spin. But apparently the taxes are not that high and therefore don't amount to that much in terms of a per share basis. So Comcast 2976 right now. Well, can you really mount a significant bid at a, at a big premium somehow to the current stock price with that kind of a stock or do you need to lever up to a certain extent and if you do that. What's that going to do to your stock price? Not to mention the regulatory side, where there are many doubts as to whether the company would be able to get the approvals it needs from the Department of Justice crisis, certainly under the current administration and therefore might have to include a huge reverse break fee. Netflix, which we'll hear from later today when it reports earnings and certainly gets at least some questions about this. You can imagine its desire for the library and for the studio. But putting together HBO Max number three with Netflix number one in streaming also presents a significant potential anti competitive and regulatory impediment. And so, you know, just Scott sort of doing more reporting as we will continue to this process will work its way out. The board will have a record which it very may want to have in terms of at least having looked other places. And then perhaps they do come back to Paramount and get a deal done somewhere in the mid-20s, largely in cash. That's speculation at this point, but it doesn't mean in any way their decision to go to the market market and say we are for sale precludes the possibility that they end up with Paramount, which is the only whole company bid and which very importantly as well seems to have a much clearer regulatory path to approve.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, well, it's intriguing. That's, that's for certain. And it will remain so as each incremental report that you have, David, to add to this story. We appreciate you bringing that to us. That's David Faber joining us. He's at Active Passive, by the way, where he's already done some interviews and done some reporting on this. So we'll follow that and we'll keep an eye on shares of all of those companies which are moving. There's Warner Brothers, which is the big winner obviously on that report today, up more than 10%. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we do have our calls of the day. We have a big sell call on one of Jim's favorite names. We'll discuss other stocks that are on the move. Of course, as David was saying, Netflix does report after the bell tonight. It was already going to be interesting because it's a high interest name. Now you got the added questions about a potential interest that it may have in, in one of these media properties. We're back after this.

[David Faber]

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[Jim Leventhal]

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[Joe Terranova]

These franchises on the Record, all new Saturdays, three Eastern.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, welcome back. So we were just talking around Netflix a bit with David Faber. Of course, the company does report earnings today. It's been an interesting stock. Right. It had this massive run and then this period of sort of not much what's been going on.

[Jim Leventhal]

It's so far it's outperformed the Max 7. In 2025, it's up 39%.

[Scott Wapner]

But you can see what I'm talking about, right? Look at the big move up and then a sideways move across.

[Jim Leventhal]

Okay. So from June 30th until today, it is exhibiting a classic consolidation pattern. It has not broken down. It has not reversed the prevailing trend. The prevailing trend is still in place for this stock. It is sitting and waiting for some positive news. Maybe tonight we get it. The last six quarters they have beaten. What do you want to hear tonight? I want to hear tonight about how they're going to utilize AI to increase margins, to cut costs, to make sure that their spending on content is less than it has been in the last several years. Also global.

[Scott Wapner]

You want them to spend less on content?

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, they're going to be able to spend less on content because of AI. How are they going to utilize AI? That's going to be a big story. Okay, in addition to that, what does global engagement look like? Because in Q2, global engagement took a dip. Now in June, we had Squid Game, which came back and then Jimmy's favorite, K Pop Demon Hunters came back as well. So global engagement might have the uptick. I think you're sitting with this stock. I think you're waiting for the next catalyst. I think it is going ultimately deliver.

[Scott Wapner]

Jason, snipe you.

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, I mean, Netflix has been languishing to your point for the last few weeks, but it's up around 9% over the last two weeks. I really like this podcast deal with Spotify. I think that's going to be important. I think the sports business, as they continue to their foray into sports, I think that's going to be phenomenal for the stock. I also think they have been flawlessly executing.

[Scott Wapner]

That's why I continue like, okay, let's talk, let's, let's talk rock climbing. Let's talk rock climbing.

[Jim Leventhal]

What's a good stock to do that?

[Scott Wapner]

Because they climbed the cliff, the mountain yesterday, and now the rope broke for Cleveland Cliffs. Now, I didn't have you call in yesterday. It's all good when the stock was up. Massive.

[Joe Terranova]

I'd rather do it today.

[Scott Wapner]

No, I would, too.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, but for different reasons.

[Scott Wapner]

No. Well, I knew you were coming. I knew you were coming on Today.

[Joe Terranova]

It's better to do this now. When the stock is the, the critics.

[Scott Wapner]

If you want to call, they're saying, okay, the stock was only up because the CEO talked about rare earths, which is like talking, like I just say rare earths, right? And the stock goes up. And now the street sort of caught on to that and is like, all right, and today it got downgraded to underweight after what Wells Fargo calls excess exuberance. Okay, and now here's the stock down big today. What's the story here?

[Joe Terranova]

The story is changing. Leave rare earths aside, okay? That is not what excites me. But the narrative is changing here. Six months ago, this was a company in trouble. Highly levered balance sheet. They had just bought a Canadian steel company that was now facing dramatic tariffs. Okay? The narrative is changing in many ways, and rare earths is very, very low on the list for me. Number one, auto demand is picking up. They've just signed contracts with all the major OEMs at favorable prices for the next two to three years. And we see what's going on with GM today. I don't know if we'll get to that, but we see what's going on. Auto production is going to pick up. And that's one third of their business. Probably more important than that is they've signed a memorable memorandum of understanding with an international steel company that wants to leverage idle Asset management. Idle plants at Cleveland Cliffs.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, says that's an overreaction in the name.

[Joe Terranova]

I disagree. And that's fine. Wells is. Everybody's going to have their opinion. The details haven't been released. In the press release for the earnings yesterday, it was, it was called highly accretive. Now look, I like the way that sounds, but either way, the story has changed. And you can see it in the share chart. If you look at one or six month charts, this stock is clearly climbing. A month ago, ago, the 200 day moving average peaked up. Now listen, I'm the fundamental guy. I know Scott. I'm not the technical guy, but I do pay attention. The 200 day moving average is now going up. The 50 day is soaring. And frankly, all today is doing from a technical point of view is filling a gap that formed yesterday that needed to be filled. That's why I'm happy to talk about this today. If I'd been talking about it yesterday, I would have said, hey, you got to be in the stock and. And then we would have had today and I would have looked like a dope, you know, But I think this is the right price and I'm actually going to buy some more for myself personally right now. Okay. Nothing dramatic about it, but I didn't want to do that and then start talking it up. So here we go.

[Scott Wapner]

You're buying it right now?

[Joe Terranova]

Yes, sir.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. You let your fingers do the talking.

[Jim Leventhal]

While you buy it. Can I ask you a question without you getting upset at me?

[Joe Terranova]

Do I ever get you no guarantees? No guarantees get upset with you from.

[Jim Leventhal]

From an outsider looking in, you could make a strong argument that US steel prices are maybe artificially inflated because of the tariffs. You could make that argument.

[Joe Terranova]

Yes.

[Jason Snipe]

Okay.

[Jim Leventhal]

But they are elevated for sure. They are elevated for sure.

[Joe Terranova]

Bring it.

[Jim Leventhal]

So why is it that the company keeps reporting negative gross margin? I don't get that.

[Joe Terranova]

Well, the EBITDA is positive. That's good question. The profitability margin that I look at and most investors in Cleveland Cliff tariffs are going to look at is ebitda. EBITDA came in better than expected yesterday. But I think there's an underlying question of are tariffs real? Are they going to last? First off, the company thinks that they will from a national security point of view and buttressing that they just signed an order with the Department of War, that's what we call it, for $400 million of grain oriented electrical steel that will be produced over the next few years. Here's the important part. It's for a stockpile. It's for a national strategic stockpile. That's where the country is, right? We need that. Hey, wait a second. I'm not going to answer that question because it's irrelevant. We're doing it, okay? And you know it. It's not. This is not my choice. It is the presidential administration's choice that we are going to be stockpiling critical national minerals and, and metals of which they've already started with Cleveland cliffs with this $400 million or.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, all right. That's a Good debate. Contessa Brewer has the headlines. Hi, Contessa.

[Stephanie Link]

Hi there, Scott. The White House said today there are no plans for an immediate meeting between President Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. President Trump said last week that top diplomats from the US And Russia would meet this week and then be followed by his own summit with Putin in Budapest, Hungary. But today, officials from both countries can confirmed there is no date set for either meeting. North Carolina's Senate approved a new congressional map that could help Republicans gain an additional U.S. house seat. State senators say that's their aim. They want to keep Democrats from taking back the chamber in the midterm elections. The measure now heads to the North Carolina House where it is expected to be approved later this week. And it's not good news for rapper Sean Diddy Combs. So White House officials pushing back on that TMZ report that claims President Trump is considering commuting Combs prison sentence as soon as this week. That official says there is zero truth to the report. A judge sentenced Combs to four years in prison earlier this month after a jury convicted him in July on prostitution related charges. That's the news, Scott. I'll send it Back to you post 9.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, I can test. Appreciate that. Thank you. Contestant Brewer. Coming up, we have a big downgrade for one big bank. We're talking what's happening in credit too, as another big CEO in finance speaks out. You'll hear it next.

[David Faber]

And now a next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with.

[Scott Wapner]

Any issues with ease. So the pillows will get delivered and.

[David Faber]

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[Scott Wapner]

Let's talk Goldman Sachs. There's the chart. Stock is green, albeit slightly because it got downgraded today to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan, which is interesting. Joe, you own Goldman Sachs. Jason does as well. What do you think about this call? What do you think about this call? The global investment Banking pecking order has Goldman on the list, but a little bit further down.

[Jim Leventhal]

Okay. Now with my existing position, there's nothing that I'm going to be doing right related to this call Goldman Sachs in the midst of a little bit of a minor Correction back towards 100 day moving average. I would argue that's healthy. I would argue that the fundamentals that have lifted the stock over the last several years remain in place. I think there's significant regulatory relief that is very difficult to statistically measure that is going to positively benefit this company. The trading revenue is strong, the investment banking revenue is strong, the culture is strong. David Solomon's done a great job skinnying down parts of the business that weren't working. And those are all the reasons that I've owned it along the way.

[Scott Wapner]

And I'm going to Continue Speaking of Mr. Solomon. He was on Squawk Box this morning. I hope you all saw that. He was asked about what's happening in the credit markets, issues in some aspects of private credit and leveraged loans, etc. Nothing you haven't heard about. He talked about it and addressed it himself today. Listen.

[Jim Leventhal]

When we do have an economic slowdown, and we will someday have an economic slowdown, when we do and we do have a recession, you know, we will go through a credit cycle and you certainly will see, you know, losses and pressure on those that lend and provide credit. We've just gone through a very long period of time. We have historically very, very tight credit spreads. And I think it's probably a time, you know, to watch carefully. But I don't see things at the moment that lead me to say there's something broader going on. And without economic pressure, it's hard to see a real credit cycle.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, that's David Solomon. That seems to be. Steph, what many, if not all for that matter, are saying that most of what you've seen so far is, if not idiosyncratic in nature, not a sign of something that's going to mushroom into something much, much larger and become anywhere close to systemic.

[Stephanie Link]

And that's because of regulation. Since 2008, companies have had to hold so much excess capital, which is going to reverse, by the way, probably end of this year, maybe into next year. But they still have to hold a lot. And as a result, they're in much better shape. That's why we got through Silicon Valley Bank. It was like a blip, right? So a couple of years ago. So to me, the big six were outstanding. In terms of the quarters, I would actually say Goldman of the big six was the worst, but it was still good. Morgan Stanley by far the best. And the ROTC is the profitability at these companies is enormous and it's accelerating. And because it's accelerating, I think that is a, you're going to see a rerating in the multiples. That's why you saw the move in Wells Fargo, because they increased their ROTC. The other banks, the regional banks, 25 companies reported last week. I listened to a whole host of them. Really only two blips. Return on, return on tangible common equity.

[Scott Wapner]

Just for it's profitability.

[Stephanie Link]

It's profitability. That's what you root for. You report to go higher. And it is going higher. And by the way, it is not only profitability, net interest income, actually the guides were much better than expected. Fee income across the board with the regionals too, also better than expected. And, and most companies did talk about credit being just fine. HBAN actually did the best job of the super regionals talking about that. They're very healthy and the industry is very healthy and they were on CNBC so you could go online and watch them.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Yes, you can, you can subscribe as well.

[Stephanie Link]

Yes you can.

[Scott Wapner]

To Pro and plus Plus.

[Stephanie Link]

Yes. The whole thing, the whole, the whole gamut.

[Jason Snipe]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you have a QR code you want to mention or anything like that? I got you. Mike Santoli, he's next with his midday work. New record high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Mike Santoli, who joins us now with his midday word.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, beneficiary today, Scott, of this rotation, away from some of the real supercharged stuff, which includes gold and a lot of the speculative stuff into more old economy. So Dow gets a rare day in the sun. You know, on Friday we had gold down, the volatility index down. I thought that was actually helping to support the broad equity market because nobody wants to say, hey, what does gold know that we should be worried about because it never goes down. Well, now you have a nice reversal and it's taken a lot of the frothy stuff down. We're with it, so we'll see if this lasts. Obviously we're holding yesterday's nice 1% bounce which had good breadth. Earnings are coming through fine. I don't think you got any big reset in the last week or so with this little pullback. It didn't really mean we're going to be catapulted higher. But so far the market's not doing anything wrong that you can observe.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I mean the alts, managers, pe Stocks up. You heard David Solomon on squawk. So I think a little bit of the fever, if you will, around that issue is coming down a bit. We'll see what happens, Mike. I'll see at 3. Appreciate that. Mike Santoli, A bunch of committee stocks are on the move. We'll do them next. Let's talk about some stocks that are on the move. We start with GE Aerospace boosted their 2025 earnings forecast on strong engine demand. Stephanie Link. The earnings are now 166 versus 145. Estimate revenues $11.3 billion. You own the name.

[Stephanie Link]

Great management team, great execution. Beat raise margins in engines were up 170 basis points and on the defense side up 380 basis points. That's the margin side. On the sales side up 26%. Very, very good quarter. Stock should be up more, but it's up a lot year to date.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Jimmy Cliff, Lockheed. Do you know Jimmy Cliff?

[Joe Terranova]

I do now. I'm gonna have songs of his in my head. Thank you very much. You're having quite a.

[Scott Wapner]

That could be my new one for you. Farmer Jim's getting a little tired. Anyway, I don't know what do you.

[Joe Terranova]

What I have to bring on the floor of the stock exchange?

[Scott Wapner]

Yes, the Japanese track.

[Joe Terranova]

I like Jimmy. I like Jimmy the bull. That had a certain, you know, Lockheed overtone to it.

[Scott Wapner]

Lockheed, they raised their full year outlook.

[Joe Terranova]

Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

Jimmy. Yeah, Talk about it.

[Joe Terranova]

Stocks down a little bit and this was a stealth cut. So they beat on earnings, they beat on sales, they raised guidance, but they raised guidance for just a little bit less than they beat in the third quarter. So the street is looking at it as a stealth cut. Okay. I mean that's why it's down. But clearly the momentum is there both in the business and in the share price. It's been coming back quite nicely over the past few weeks. Good demand for the F35, good demand for missiles. I hate the way this sounds, but it is what it is. They're buying back shares. So I think today's decline is actually a buying opportunity.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. How's the Kubota?

[Joe Terranova]

I like the Kubota. I might be accused of tractor neglect. I'm feeling, I'm feeling like I need to spend some quality time with the tractor. I, I need, I have some repair work to do between me and my tractor.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll do finals next. I will see you on closing bell a couple hours, three o' clock Eastern. We'll see if the Dow can extend that record high that it set today. Anastasia Amorozzo Alicia Levine and Alex Kanchowitz. We got Netflix coming up too. We'll walk you right up to that. Jason Snipe. What do you got?

[Jason Snipe]

AB V Stay Long, Farmer Gem?

[Joe Terranova]

Tractor?

[Scott Wapner]

Skip? No. Why would I ever skip you?

[Joe Terranova]

I don't know.

[Scott Wapner]

Qualcomm well, if you don't hurry up, I'll skip you.

[Stephanie Link]

Stephen Active GM is a 9% customer.

[Scott Wapner]

Palo Alto all right, good stuff. I'll see you on the closing bell of the exchanges. Now, you've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Stephanie Link]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer It's Cybersecurity Awareness.

[Scott Wapner]

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[Jason Snipe]

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