CNBC Halftime Report – October 21, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Wapner and the “Investment Committee”—Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, and Jim Leventhal—break down a historic day as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits an all-time high. They discuss the strong macroeconomic backdrop, the ongoing earnings season, rate cut expectations, froth in commodities and speculative stocks, quality vs. growth, the resilience of megacap tech, shifts in financials, and major M&A speculation. Several major stocks—including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix, and Goldman Sachs—are analyzed in-depth, with fresh commentary on media M&A and the day’s biggest movers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Outlook: Strength, Breadth, & Earnings

• Backdrop: Stocks are higher; the Dow hits a record. Yields are falling, with the 10-year below 4% ([01:13]).
• Earnings Season: 86% of companies have beaten estimates, with a greater breadth in earnings growth emerging beyond just the Mag 7 ([02:20], Jason Snipe).
• Economic Strength: Q3 GDP tracking 3.9% per Atlanta Fed, with both consumer and manufacturing sectors strong. AI and Capex remain tailwinds ([03:23], Stephanie Link).

“I like the breadth story that is starting to get some oxygen, and that’s why I continue to like this market.”
—Jason Snipe [02:20]

“It’s consumer and manufacturing, AI, and the renaissance that’s happening there… earnings have been really good so far. The banks were off the charts—big six off the charts.”
—Stephanie Link [03:23]

2. Commodities Correction: Gold & Silver Sell-Off

• Gold & Silver Plunge: Gold drops 5%, its worst day since 2013; silver falls nearly 7% ([04:34], Scott Wapner).
• Speculation Unwind: Over-speculation is unwinding, which is seen as a healthy correction in the context of a secular bull market for precious metals ([05:49], Jim Leventhal).

“What is going on today in the precious metals is exactly what you want to see happen. It’s healthy, a self-correct.”
—Jim Leventhal [06:07]

3. Froth & Rotation: Risk vs. Quality

• Speculative Areas: Debate over froth in gold, nuclear, and biotech. Excessive speculation is being corrected, especially in unprofitable stocks and high-flying sectors ([05:05], Scott Wapner; [09:24], Jim Leventhal).
• Quality Factor Ascending: October sees “quality” stocks outperform as momentum and speculative areas cool ([09:24], Jim Leventhal).
• Earnings & Margins: Expectation that quality companies will win out post-earnings, with margin acceleration cited ([10:53], Stephanie Link).

“There has to be a handoff at some point to quality, and I think we’re at the early stages of that… that’s going to be the theme in ‘26.”
—Jim Leventhal [09:24]

4. Megacap Tech: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, & Meta

Apple's Momentum and Valuation Debate

• On cusp of $4T valuation; some trimming positions despite positive momentum ([11:20]–[14:02]).
• Valuation/Narrative Split:
  • Snipe: Trimmed due to overweight position and wants to diversify as market breadth improves ([14:02], Jason Snipe).
  • Link: Not willing to pay a big premium for Apple’s current 8% growth; sees Meta and Amazon as more compelling valuations ([16:09], Stephanie Link).

“31 times for 8% growth is just not compelling.”
—Stephanie Link [14:26]

Amazon's Setup and Rotation

• Poised for breakout above $230, position size increased to 6% ([16:45], Jason Snipe).
• AWS (cloud) expected to reaccelerate; lowest valuation in years ([16:45]).
• *Big Cap Tech moves in waves, but when out of a range, Amazon, like others, tends to surge ([18:30], Joe Terranova).

Alphabet’s Competitive Threat: OpenAI’s Browser

• OpenAI surprise announcement of “ChatGPT Atlas” browser sends Alphabet down 3% ([19:53], Stephanie Link).
• Debate over whether new AI-powered search products can threaten Google's dominance.
• *Terranova: Threats are real but too early to declare a winner; expects Alphabet’s earnings power to remain robust ([21:01]–[22:36]).

“I’m not giving up on Alphabet… I find the multiple attractive. The business is going strong.”
—Joe Terranova [21:01]

Meta and Amazon: Relative Value

• Meta’s margins up, 20% growth for 21x PE vs Apple’s 31x for 8%: Link is more bullish on Meta ([16:09]).
• Amazon offers potential catch-up upside due to lagging Mag 7 peers YTD ([16:09])

5. Media M&A: Warner Brothers Discovery Up for Sale

• *David Faber reports WBD’s board has decided to put the company up for sale, following talks with Paramount. Potential other suitors include Comcast (parent company) and Netflix, though significant regulatory hurdles exist ([23:35], David Faber).
• *Speculation continues over what combination—if any—might succeed, with a Paramount deal seen as having clearer regulatory approval path ([27:18]).

6. Notable Stock Moves & Calls

Netflix Earnings Preview

• Stock consolidating after strong run YTD (up 39%), looking for next catalyst from earnings tonight ([29:29], Jim Leventhal).
• Key: Use of AI to boost margins, content strategy, and global engagement are under watch ([30:12], Jim Leventhal; [30:45], Jason Snipe).

Cleveland Cliffs Volatility

• Discussed rare earths, steel tariffs, and the narrative turnaround for the company, with Terranova buying more during the show ([31:12]–[33:59]).

“The narrative is changing in many ways... auto demand is picking up... the story has changed.”
—Joe Terranova [32:07]

Goldman Sachs & Financials

• Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan, but panel remains constructive due to fundamentals, trading and IB revenue, and improved profitability metrics ([37:54]–[39:01]).
• David Solomon (Goldman CEO): No systemic risk evident; credit issues idiosyncratic, not broad ([39:21]).
• Link underscores financial sector’s robust capital positions and rising profitability ([40:15]).

7. Other Movers: Industrials & Defense

• GE Aerospace: Boosts earnings forecast; strong engine demand, great management and margin performance ([43:42], Stephanie Link).
• Lockheed Martin: Stock dips despite beat-and-raise due to conservative guidance; strong demand continues, buyback activity cited ([44:27], Joe Terranova).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The consumer is fine. Gasoline prices are down 18% YTD. Food input costs are coming down. Rents are coming down. All of this is really good for the consumer.”
  —Stephanie Link [03:23]

• “If you do not own precious metals, you want to make sure you get an allocation.”
  —Jim Leventhal [07:28]

• “Quality will win out, but it’s early on right now in terms of earnings season for quality companies.”
  —Stephanie Link [10:53]

• “I also think, to Steph’s point... in 2026, do I have to think about reshaping my risk in an environment where valuations are stretched? Even though you could argue Apple’s valuation is stretched, it could be defined as a company that’s quality for sure.”
  —Jim Leventhal [12:05]

• “I’m actually going to buy some more [Cleveland Cliffs] for myself right now.”
  —Joe Terranova [33:59]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|--------------| | Market Set-Up, Dow Record, Panel Intros | [01:02] | | Earnings Strength & Market Breadth | [02:20]–[03:23] | | Commodities Correction (Gold/Silver) | [04:34]–[06:07] | | Speculation vs. Quality, Biotech, Rotation | [09:24]–[10:53] | | Apple, Meta, Amazon Debate | [11:20]–[16:45] | | Alphabet Threat (OpenAI Browser) | [19:53]–[23:16] | | Warner Brothers M&A Reporting | [23:35]–[27:18] | | Netflix Earnings Preview | [29:29]–[31:05] | | Cleveland Cliffs Volatility | [31:12]–[33:59] | | Goldman/FI Commentary, David Solomon | [37:54]–[39:53] | | GE Aerospace & Lockheed Results | [43:42]–[44:59] |

Conclusion

The October 21, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report spotlighted the continued strength in markets thanks to robust earnings and consumer tailwinds, even as speculative excesses unwind in pockets like commodities and biotech. The team debated the future leadership of the market as the rally broadens, particular valuation standouts (Meta, Amazon), the new competitive threat to Alphabet from OpenAI, and major M&A rumblings in media. The overall consensus: maintain exposure to both “quality” and selective growth, stay vigilant for rotation, and prepare for more volatility as leadership evolves and earnings roll in.