CNBC Halftime Report — Live from Future Proof, Huntington Beach (September 9, 2025)

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, hosted by Scott Wapner, comes live from the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California—a major gathering for financial advisors and investment pros. Panelists include Josh Brown (Ritholtz Wealth), Stephanie Link, Shannon Saccocia, and special guests Dan Ives (Wedbush), Rick Rieder (BlackRock), and Leslie Picker interviewing JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The discussion centers on the continued strength of U.S. markets, implications of imminent Fed rate cuts, sector leadership (notably tech and financials), and investment strategy in a world shaped by AI, rate cycles, and a shifting global economy.

Key Discussion Points

Rate Cut Environment and Market Leadership

[01:01–03:21]

• The market is in full "rate cut mode," mirroring last year’s optimism and high levels, though now fueled by stronger-than-anticipated earnings, especially in AI and related sectors.
• Sectors outside pure tech, such as industrials and utilities, have joined the rally, signaling broader market participation.
• Rotations into financials and homebuilding may propel the next leg of gains.

Quotes

• “It’s a little bit Groundhog Day-ish… We had incredible earnings growth, especially in the NASDAQ 100.” — Josh Brown [02:16]
• “That could be the next leg of this market. Not to say the AI theme will peter out, but it’s nice to have a new group of stocks joining the party.” — Josh Brown [02:52]

The Fed, Economic Strength & Earnings

[03:21–04:47]

• High expectations for a Fed rate cut imminently, possibly as soon as next week. Debate centers on how many cuts will follow this year.
• Economic growth remains robust (2–3% GDP), led by consumer spending and business investment; wage growth is healthy, unemployment is low.
• Double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion likely as businesses continue strong capex.

Quotes

• “They’re going to cut next week for sure. The question is how many more… The economy is holding up remarkably well.” — Stephanie Link [03:38]

Big Tech: Rotation, Valuation, and the AI Wave

[04:47–09:38]

• Money has flowed back into select tech names, aided by regulatory relief around Alphabet and ongoing AI optimism.
• Intriguing rotation within the “Mag 7” (now Mag 8 with Broadcom): Apple resurged, Alphabet got a boost, while Nvidia/Microsoft take a breather—showcasing healthy internal market dynamics.
• Elevated tech valuations aren’t disqualifying; as long as earnings continue to rise, many see selective opportunities rather than blanket overvaluation concerns.

Quotes

• “A little bit of good news didn’t take much and some of the other names like Nvidia and Microsoft take a breather. That intra Mag 7 rotation is what keeps the market where it is. You don’t need all these stocks going up all the time.” — Josh Brown [06:32]
• “If you’re making all your investment decisions based on valuation, you’re making the wrong move.” — Scott Wapner [07:37]

Apple’s iPhone Event & Position in AI

[09:38–14:37]

• The iPhone 17 launch is seen as lackluster on hardware, but the real watchpoint is potential upcoming AI catalysts (especially via Google Gemini partnership).
• Sentiment is low (315 million iPhones not upgraded in 4+ years). Bulls like Dan Ives see Apple as a potential 30–40% gainer over the next year if AI execution materializes.
• Counterpoint: Apple is still lagging on tangible AI integration versus peers like Broadcom.

Quotes

• “It’s really apathy from an investor perspective going into the event... The elephant in the room continues to be AI.” — Dan Ives [10:09]
• “I just don’t think you’re going to see a super cycle on 17 because they don’t have it. So I think it might be 18. That’s fine, they’ll get it eventually. But it’s not 17.” — Stephanie Link [14:04]

Financials and Private Equity in Focus

[14:39–16:49]

• Big banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Bank of America) are in favor due to steep yield curves, deregulation, and surging M&A (completed deals up 40% worldwide YTD).
• Private equity has lagged despite M&A optimism, leading some to rotate toward traditional banks for better value.
• Call for confirmation through actual deal closings before a real re-rating in private equity shares.

Quotes

• “I think the banks are so much more compelling because you do have them benefiting from the steep yield curve, deregulation… and M&A up 40% worldwide.” — Stephanie Link [15:17]

Rick Rieder (BlackRock): Macro Market Outlook & Fed Perspective

[18:25–29:21]

• Rieder reiterates this as potentially ‘the best investing environment’ he’s ever seen: broad opportunity across tech, fixed income (6% yields pre-cuts), privates, gold, bitcoin.
• Expects Fed to cut 25bps imminently (should do 50bps); sees little risk of stagflation, projects solid nominal GDP growth (~5%).
• On portfolio allocation: overweight equities with a tech tilt, moderate fixed income exposure (especially at 5-year maturities), small allocation to gold/bitcoin as hard assets.

Quotes

• “I think it’s the best investment environment… Technology’s changing, incredible earnings growth. You got publics, you got privates, you got gold, you got bitcoin… it’s the best I’ve ever seen for figuring out where to be.” — Rick Rieder [18:57]
• “Fed independence is critical. ...Globally, people have to have confidence we’re managing the currency, managing our debt stack effectively.” — Rick Rieder [24:20]
• “What the bond market is telling you is the funds rate is too high. We gotta get that down to neutral.” — Rick Rieder [26:35]

Future Proof Conference and Wealth Management Innovation

[31:53–34:48]

• Josh Brown discusses the significance of Future Proof: an outdoor, festival-style conference aimed at next-gen advisors, with heavy focus on innovation, tech tools, and best practices in wealth management.
• The RIA space is thriving, attracting both traditional wealth managers and private equity.

Quotes

• “What you’re looking at behind me is a representation of the future of wealth management… Everyone’s here to try to get better at what they do with the goal of serving their clients to the best of their ability.” — Josh Brown [32:04]
• “Year one, they looked at us like we were crazy. We said this is not a conference, it’s a festival.” — Josh Brown [33:09]

Josh Brown’s Best Stocks Updates

[34:02–36:00]

• Highlights names that have delivered massive gains (e.g., Lam Research, eBay, Carvana) and provides discipline on entries/exits and risk management (e.g., using stops, position sizing).
• Stresses importance of contextually reviewing winners and managing risk, particularly with volatile stocks like Carvana.

Quotes

• “Lam has just been outrageous, up 50% or so… eBay has been a winner… Carvana, another huge home run… It’s an extremely wild stock… position size risk is an underappreciated way to ride a name like that.” — Josh Brown [34:14]

Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO): Live Interview

[36:54–42:15] Conducted by Leslie Picker from JPMorgan’s new Manhattan headquarters.

On New Headquarters & NYC Commitment

• JPM spends $3B to build a new 1,300-ft Manhattan skyscraper, reinforcing commitment to NYC as a talent and operations epicenter.
• Invests in the city’s future, celebrates labor partnership.

Quotes

• “We make long-term views about where we build and where we invest… New York City’s been a home… huge amount of talent here.” — Jamie Dimon [37:20]

On Labor Market, Economy, & Data

• Dimon sees signs of economic weakening but questions if it’s mere softening or early recession signal. JPM draws on its own data as well as government stats to chart trends.
• Reiterates the difficulty of predicting macro conditions even with JPM’s vast datasets.

Quotes

• “The economy is weakening… whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.” — Jamie Dimon [38:19]
• “We get data like you wouldn’t believe… but trying to figure out what the economy is going to do is still hard… Maybe one day I’ll fix that problem.” — Jamie Dimon [39:36]

On Reputation and Safeguards

• Dimon addresses lingering repercussions from JP Morgan's past business with Jeffrey Epstein, stating continued improvement in safeguards but acknowledges the ongoing challenge of fighting financial crime.

Quotes

• “We totally regret ever having done business with that man… we’re always trying to improve and it’ll never be perfect. The bad guys are quite smart.” — Jamie Dimon [40:23]

On the Consumer

• Consumer spending is still solid but more fragile in lower income brackets. JPM remains committed to support through all cycles, regardless of economic headwinds.

Quotes

• “They’re still spending money… a little bit different depending what income set they’re coming from. …We cover clients through thick and thin, through good times and bad times.” — Jamie Dimon [40:58]

Consumer, Lifestyle, and Stock Insights

Shake Shack’s French Onion Menu Launch

• Product innovation cited as a direct driver of foot traffic and brand strength—relevant to thesis for long-term share price performance. Shake Shack seen as a multi-year growth story with new catalysts.

Quotes

• “It’s like an underappreciated part of the story… innovation. They’re doing things that are far and away more exciting than their competitors.” — Josh Brown [44:28]

Chipotle & Zoetis

• Chipotle seen as a higher-quality holding over Shake Shack, especially with new products and digital strengths; Zoetis affirmed as a buy by Argus but Elanco favored as the better value turnaround play.

Final Trades & Closing Market Thoughts

[47:21–48:13]

• Stephanie Link: Bullish on China (consumer recovery thesis) and U.S. housing (e.g., Lennar).
• Josh Brown: Likes Rocket Companies (new 52-week high), recently added to his best stocks list; emphasizes ongoing opportunity in housing.

Timestamps for Notable Segments

| Time | Segment/Quote Description | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:01 | Scott Wapner opens the show from Future Proof, outlines panel and topics. | | 02:16 | Josh Brown on market parallels to last year and new sector leadership. | | 03:38 | Stephanie Link on economic resilience and Fed outlook. | | 06:32 | Josh Brown on intra-Mag 7 rotation in tech and market health. | | 09:57 | Dan Ives on Apple event & AI’s “sleeping giant” potential. | | 14:04 | Stephanie Link skeptical on Apple’s current AI implementation. | | 15:17 | Stephanie Link on financial sector and rotation from private equity. | | 18:25 | Scott Wapner interviews BlackRock’s Rick Rieder (“best investment environment”). | | 21:06 | Rieder: little risk of stagflation, expects solid GDP growth. | | 24:20 | Rieder: Fed independence is critical. | | 26:35 | Rieder: Technicals in equities vs signals from the bond market. | | 32:04 | Josh Brown explains the Future Proof conference’s vision and impact. | | 34:14 | Brown updates on best stock picks and risk management. | | 36:54 | Leslie Picker with Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan) in NYC headquarters. | | 38:19 | Dimon speaks on economic weakening and labor force trends. | | 40:23 | Dimon addresses Epstein safeguards and anti-money laundering. | | 43:56 | Shake Shack’s new French onion menu—product innovation and investment relevance. | | 47:43 | Final trades: Focus on China, U.S. housing, and Rocket Companies. |

Tone & Notable Moments

• The tone throughout was upbeat but pragmatic—combining bullishness (on tech, banks, housing, multi-asset strategies) with a wary eye toward valuations, economic laggards, and macro uncertainties.
• Memorable comparison: Josh Brown likens repeating bullish market conditions to “Groundhog Day,” and Dan Ives references “Back to the Future” at Apple launches.
• Jamie Dimon projects gravitas and candor about JPMorgan’s approach through cycles—and stresses humility in forecasting.
• Rick Rieder stands out for his bold macro statements and portfolio strategy advice.

Summary Takeaways

• Most panelists agree the market is being propelled by AI gains, healthy macro conditions, and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
• There is an ongoing rotation and diversification within U.S. equities, particularly in the tech megacaps, with an increasing focus on banks, homebuilders, and select consumer names.
• Despite high valuations—especially in tech—earnings momentum and capex dynamics remain supportive for continued gains.
• Special guests Rick Rieder and Jamie Dimon offer invaluable high-level insights on Fed policy, portfolio construction, institutional resilience, and labor market risks.
• “Best-in-class” innovation, whether in food service (Shake Shack) or concerts (Live Nation), remains a viable equity investing angle.
• Final trade ideas: lean into China consumer recovery and U.S. housing; monitor real-time earning trends and sector rotations.

For listeners and investors, this episode is packed with high-level actionable insights, sector rotation themes, and macro context for navigating a changing market landscape.