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Halftime Report
How Far Can the Rally Run? 2/9/26
00:44:22
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how far the rally can run and how you should position your portfolio. Plus, the Committee is making some major portfolio moves, they reveal their strategies. And later, CNBC's Contessa Brewer joins us to discuss sports betting hitting record highs after last night's Super Bowl. Investment Committee Disclosures
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A
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B
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities.
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A
Cheers.
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C
Cheers.
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B
And even another passenger who are three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC I'm Scott Wapner.
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A
And you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the state of stocks. The Dow at 50k, the equal weight S and P at record highs. All those questions swirling about the trade. We debated all with the investment committee, as always. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Jim Laventhal, Steve Weiss, Brin Talkington. Let's check the markets. We are green across the board. So we're trying to build on that big comeback on Friday. Joe, I said, I laid it out. Dow's higher than 50k, S&P, equal weight, record high. And Edgar Denny says you ain't seen nothing yet. He says Dow 70K by 2029. Dow theory remains bullish. The delivery side of the economy, the transports, he says that's confirming that the production side of the economy, the industrials, that the market is still in growth story mode.
- [02:10]
D
Well, we tried to speak to that throughout last week as you had that significant deleveraging event going on. And it was really about cascading liquidation in a very systematic oriented type of way. We tried to identify. Scott, the fundamentals are fine. If you look at revenue growth, look at earnings growth for the 60% of the S&P 500 that have reported so far, it is incredibly robust the way it was in the prior four quarters. So We've had the narrative in which you broadened out the opportunity set for sure S and P equal weight. That was the tell last week and now this week we're beginning the week with some strength once again in the Mag 7 names. Nvidia is working well, Microsoft working well, and then we'll talk a little bit more. But software is bouncing as well today. So I think all of that collectively is a pretty good setup as you move into what will be two critical economic numbers later in the week in labor and inflation.
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A
Brian, what a week we're coming off of. I mean you have the big upset midweek and then you know, Friday, that massive comeback in so many areas of the market and now we turn the page to this new week and try and think about where we are and where we might be going. And it's your RSP that's done so well, which you've been keep, you keep telling us why you have been in that. So what do I do from here?
- [03:32]
B
You let it run first of all. And so I think for those who don't own it, it's important. Even if you do own rsp, it's somewhat equal weight by security, but it's not by sector. So industrials are over 16% by far the largest weighting in RSP. And so is that broadening out? Obviously industrials also hit the AI narrative as well. I think you're just seeing sentiment and flows are going to continue to move out as we're all asking questions over the last 10 years these amazing companies, the Google's, the Metas, the you know, Amazons, etc. Which have been cap light, high margin, really solid recurring revenue are now becoming capex very heavy, more debt and lower margins. And so I think this market is in this digestion phase of saying how do we value. I'm putting them all together for this comment. How do we value these going forward? While we do see this economic expansion which really is in just right in the center of what RSP gives you. I will say one thing though, you can't get away from I looked at the top holding Sandisk actually is the number one holding at 50 basis points which is twice the whole the average holding weighting of any of our stock in there. So we're, we're still have AI anywhere we go now.
- [04:50]
A
Weiss, you know it doesn't matter whether you, whether you think Yardeni is going to be right about 70k but what he says about the mechanism to get the market higher from where it is now feels like it's right on the money. That the delivery side, as we said, the transports and Dow theory traditionally confirms where. Where the economy looks to be. And the production side industrials say that. He says the market currently views the 2026 growth story as fundamentally solid. Hard to poke a lot of nails in that.
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C
Yeah, I'd agree with that.
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A
Poke a lot of holes in that.
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C
Excuse me. And I don't really care about as targets. You point out what's the direction, you know, we can worry about targets later. So I think everything's in place for the direction. But here's what I find it's always so interesting in periods like this, which is that when markets correct significantly like we had, everybody says, well oh, that's healthy. But when a market shoots up like it did on Friday and it shoots up again today, nobody's saying, well that's unhealthy. So to me, what I'm getting at is that valuations right now are too high. So would have been good to see the market base for a little bit.
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A
Valuations are too high.
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C
Yeah.
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A
Don't you need to be more specific when you say that rather than a blanket.
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C
Exactly. So what I'm talking about is Microsoft suggested. Right. But now there's a legitimate conversation here is where their growth slowed dramatically. I think that matters a great valuation. Why look at some others and where the momentum is. And I own it, like G Renova, gev. I don't know how you justify that. And you've got some others. I can justify Taiwan Semi, even though it's far above what the valuation is, what the multiples have been. So my question is, and I don't know the answer, do we have a new valuation paradigm that's going continue to support these and that's driven by AI, even Caterpillar, which I own, and Jimmy I think would agree that that's overvalued here.
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A
Right.
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C
But anything that's still associated with AI is getting those premium valuations.
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A
Well, it just depends what's. Not everything is anymore. I mean, you mentioned your Microsoft.
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C
Right.
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A
Which is really in the eye here.
- [07:05]
C
Yeah.
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A
So it got downgraded today to hold from buy the target to 430. From 625. Yep, from 625 to 430 at Melius, which says, quote, Satya lost the narrative. That's a pretty harsh description of what this particular analyst thinks is happening at Microsoft.
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C
Right. And if you, if you compare that to what was being said about Alphabet about a year ago, saying they're out of it Search is dead. We're going to lose them all. A search, you know, everybody's going to cannibalize it, you know, and, and it's not. I don't think it's exactly analogous, but you're right. But the damage to Amazon and the damage to Microsoft, those are going to be years in the future. I'm not even sure there's going to be damage to Amazon. And apologies, Kevin, but I added to the position this morning.
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A
Okay. Kevin's our executive producer who you didn't tell about the move, which is why you're apologizing.
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C
Apologize to him. Yep.
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A
Do you think all the viewers know Kevin now? I think they should. Now.
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C
They do.
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A
Obviously.
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C
They should know. Kevin, we need context.
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A
We need context around most of the things that you say.
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D
But this particular one is helpful.
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C
That's true. I'm typically far ahead. But. But here's what I'd say. Comparing it to Google is a just. You can justifiably do that. There are some differences, though. Right, of course. And I think that Microsoft is too early to say that Nadella has lost the narrative. It's early, early days. They've shown a willingness to spend. They've got the relationships.
- [08:35]
A
Okay, I'm glad you bring that up. And I'll turn to Jimmy on that one, too, because you own Microsoft as well. Weiss says yes, they've shown a willingness to spend. This analyst says they're going to need to keep spending even more. So more and more and more and more because they need to keep pace with Google and Amazon. And they think that as a result of that, free cash flow is going to take a hit. That's sort of where the story begins and ends with the concerns about spending. How can they possibly be spending all this money? All that means is that you're spending such a significant percentage and pledging to spend such a significant part of your free cash flow that that makes one nervous. Now, as part of the conversation that we had with Jensen Huang out in California on Friday and Brad Gerstner as well, Jensen, and so did Brad, made the point that if you're looking at free cash flow, you're missing the story. If you continue to spend, you're going to drive your free cash flow higher. You might be draining it in the near term. You're going to drive it higher over the long term. Which is why when I asked Jensen directly about all this spending and the market about all the spending, when you're talking about 600 plus billion dollars this year alone about all that spending is it justified. Here's what Jensen said.
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D
Appropriate and sustainable. And the reason for that is because all of these companies cash flows are.
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A
Going to start rising.
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D
You know, people are comparing it to cash flows. One of those numbers are wrong. It's just the cash flow is wrong. Every single company sees the same inflection point and that's why everybody leaning in so hard.
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A
What do you think?
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E
Could he have been any clearer? Honestly? And great interview. I was on a plane back from Europe last night. I was catching up on the episodes and I watched it and frankly, based on his response, appropriate and sustainable. Jumping ahead here a little bit, Scott, but I did buy some more Oracle this morning. I mean look, he's, he's in the position and whether it's Microsoft, maybe it is too early, Steve, but it's the same sort of thing. What he and Brad both said is that all of these models are the ones that you should invest in. It shouldn't be, hey, I think Gemini is going to be the winner or Anthropic is going to be the winner. I think what Brad said was they're going to be everywhere all the time. Wasn't that his exact words?
- [10:56]
A
Yeah, but I mean you're, you're taking it to a different place here by listening to what Jensen said and trying to extrapolate that and say well, that's why I bought more Oracle as the stock's been in a real bad period.
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E
Why has it been in a bad period? It's been in a bad period because of this perception that that AI is a bubble and that it's not profitable and it's. And all of these cash flows that are being invested are not going to have a return. Do bear in mind what Jensen said, that all of these tokens are profitable right now. That every incremental investment is something that there is a return on. And it was based on those statements that I said. And again Oracle is in the crosshairs of people saying that this is a bubble.
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A
Was. Was down 11% last week. Was Oracle the target today got cut at Bernstein to 313 from 339. So it's still well above where it is now.
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D
That's don't blink.
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E
Don't blink.
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C
Right.
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E
Because it's up 11% today. And I do think a lot of this has to do with the interview on Friday with Jensen and Brad, but particularly what Jensen Huang said, that these tokens are profitable right now. And he drew a distinction to the late 1990s. Remember this with, with dark fiber and saying they knew at the time, that wasn't generating revenue.
- [12:07]
A
Well, that's what I invest about the PTSD that a lot of investors have, which is why there's so much trepidation around the whole story about all the spending, about some of the circular deals, about what's taking place in software. It's like we've seen this movie before, we know how it ended last time. Things could be quote unquote different this time, but maybe some of the, the scenes look, look the same out.
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C
Well, by the way, wrapped it around.
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A
The earth like five times more than you needed it.
- [12:38]
E
If you go back to Oracle, if you believe the numbers in 2028, if you believe the numbers in 2028 is trading at something like 14 times earnings and I'm going to tell you for that growth rate, it's a bargain to buy it here. But you have to believe those earnings. If you believe AI is a bubble, you're not going to believe the 28 numbers for Oracle or even remotely feasible. If, however, you listen to what Jensen Huang said on Friday and what Brad Gerstner said as well, you're going to say to yourself, yeah, I believe. And one more thing, if you look at what OpenAI is doing right now, not just with the monetizable contracts that it's bringing in, but with the funds that it's raising, that $1.2 trillion becomes more realistic when you see that they're raising somewhere between 50 to $100 billion right now.
- [13:20]
A
But you not only you not only bought more Oracle, I mean, you must have been just cruising down those slopes in France, winds just blowing through your hair, you're feeling great about yourself, you having your fondue and apres ski and you're like, I'm not only going to buy more Oracle, I'm just going to lay it all on the line and I'm going to buy more Adobe too.
- [13:42]
E
Well, you know, I'm going to be very honest here. I watch the show when I'm not on and I thought the conversations last week were tremendous. In this software apocalypse, which was, listen, I'm complimenting you guys. Take the compliment. In this software apocalypse, which was not just last week, and I listened to everybody and I totally agreed with all of us who were saying, this is overblown. And if I look at Adobe, I know I've said this many times this year, but I'm going to say it again. How many PDFs you, the average viewer, how many PDFs have you opened just this morning? Adobe is not getting replaced anytime soon by anthropic or anything else.
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C
I disagree with that.
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E
Well, yeah, but this is what makes a market and you can disagree with it, that's fine. You understand my stance. At a 13 times earnings, Adobe is not getting replaced. No CTO is going to their CEO.
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A
Today and saying let's replace PDF, let's, let's go there. Because if you, if you talk about 13 times, there are those who would say that's completely justified and arguably the multiple needs to go even lower. As you talk about the apocalypse in software, which is down 22% year to date, we know it's been in a tailspin. I asked Brad Gerstner why investors have been selling those stocks. I want to listen to that. Because it plays Jimmy right into exactly what you're saying. Here's Brad. I'm not penalizing them because they're missing their numbers today. I'm just putting it in the too hard bucket because I can't predict those future numbers. So the only way that reverses, Scott, is those companies have to accelerate their core revenues and show that they are beneficiaries of AI. The companies that do that, Databricks is accelerating their core revenues. I think this quarter they grew over 60%. Snowflake, Clickhouse, these are companies that are accelerating their core revenues. Because I relies on them, I think they'll do fine. But application software, where I can't see into the future, they're going to have lower multiple.
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C
Hmm.
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A
You didn't say your stock by name, but isn't that what he's referring to? Like are they accelerating their, their, their revenues on this? Are they proving, are they proving that they're a beneficiary of AI or are there very big questions about where they're going to be in the future? There's a tremendous opacity around that and that's why they have the lower multiples and arguably will have even lower from here.
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E
Boy. I mean, if you're saying it's going lower than the third.
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A
I'm not saying anything. I'm just telling you what he's talking about.
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E
One in general is saying you're going to get Adobe Less than 13. Go ahead. Maybe. I don't think so. To answer your question directly, this is a stock that's been growing the top line around 10% a year and growing the bottom line, the earnings per share in the mid teens. And I see that continuing. Those are the projections. By the way, Brad's right. He's absolutely right. And I thought he put it extremely well. If it Gets harder to predict what these earnings per share are going to be versus three, four, five years ago. Then the multiple should come down.
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A
Isn't it already harder predicted? But his point is we're already here.
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E
It's already in the stock. The stocks Multiple gone from 30 to 13 in three years.
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A
What if 13 still too high?
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E
That's the market. Steve thinks it's too expensive. I think it's too cheap. I just think to 13. Man, I have a bucket.
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C
I have a bucket like that. That's too hard. Let me move on something else. But here's why Adobe can be replaced.
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A
And then I want to get Brin right.
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C
Microsoft is an operating system that's much harder to replace place. But Adobe is not. Adobe is a security software to protect your documents. Now instead of paying a license fee for everybody sitting in your company, you can design that same security by using Claude or whatever. You're going to do it. And that's why you can't buy the stock.
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E
Absolutely not.
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C
Why wouldn't.
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E
Because you're not going to take the reputational risk that all of a sudden your document looks like it's written in Sanskrit when you send it to an important client. You're not, not going to take that risk.
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C
I used DocuSign all the time.
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A
There are many who think that all this that's happened in software has been way overdone. Ives with a note out today says Salesforce and ServiceNow way overdone. The wolf today on the contagion around software. Software, they suggest quote is as oversold as it's been over the last 20 years. Others are talking about the same sort of thing. Jensen Huang had a bit of a different take. Now I don't necessarily think he's talking about the same types of software companies that have been caught in the downdraft. But I asked him also what is going on here? Here's what he said about the opportunity.
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D
We are addressing the largest software opportunity in history for the very first time. Software is not just a tool. A tool is like except Excel. Now software uses tools. So these AIs use Excel. And so I think the, the, the opportunity to, to for this new, new era of software is incredible.
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A
Brian, I'll have you react to that.
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B
Yeah, I mean I think that we are at this inflection point. I agree with Steve. There are some things that are too hard. But I think that when you do look at the ServiceNows, the CRMs, the Salesforce, I mean data databricks is private. There is a tremendous amount of opportunity But I do not think it's going to be V shaped because I do still think people are going to continue to question is this in the too hard bucket? I wouldn't be buying igv. I think it has a. I don't like the lumpiness of how it makes up. I think it comes down to also if you look at Microsoft, Microsoft and Oracle have tied themselves to OpenAI. And so if you look at both of their remaining performance patients, way too much is reliant on open AI. And so Sam Altman I think is is masterful at fundraising but I think the market is saying we are going to vote against both of you companies because we think there may be a better alternative than open AI. And you both have hitched your wagons to them. And so to me that's going to continue to be with those software companies, why they're going to be penalized. But I do think especially a ServiceNow when you had Bill Mc Dermot actually I think he bought 20 million shares the week, a week ago. That is going to be one of those companies that you just have to have and they have a strong moat.
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D
For the entire software industry. I agree with Brin. I don't think we are at an all clear moment. I don't think it's going to be V shaped. The technology is going to continue to advance. Just look at what we heard last week from Anthropic and the disruption it caused to the financial data service providers as it specifically relates. And I think what you have to do here is be very idiosyncratic. Jimmy, you talked a lot about Oracle. You made one mistake. You didn't mention last week's debt offering. And if you talk to fixed income managers that is where there was comfort that you could actually go in and buy Oracle. The CDS tightened on Oracle the most since April of 2021. The demand for the $20 billion hot investment grade offering, not high yield which a lot of people myself included have worried are they going to fall to high Yield investment grade 25 billion, 129 billion in demand. That's a record. So right now what you're seeing from a lot of the hyperscalers we heard this morning Alphabet they are going to offer 15 billion in debt matter did 30 billion very strong demand. Demand. The hyperscalers are getting strong demand for that investment grade paper from fixed income managers. And that's where you get the comfort on Oracle. But universally I don't think you could have it on.
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A
How about what? You know this. The upset in software has you know, the tentacles kind of spread everywhere. Private credit. We talked a lot about those names which were under some pretty heavy selling pressure last midweek for a couple of days there where they were down significantly because you know, they, they've lended a fair amount of money to these software companies. Which brings me back to, to you, Brin, because you bought more of the Blue Owl technology finance otf. Tell me, tell me more.
- [21:42]
B
Yeah, I mean to me where I think IGV is somewhat in the too hard bucket buying ETF is, especially after earnings last week. If you listen to Mark Lipschultz, this was just, this stock is overdone. These are pristine loans. Of course they'll have write offs. It's loans. But when the analyst asked Mark specifically about this portfolio if there are any concerns, Mark said not only do I not see a red light or a yellow light, we see a green light that these are high quality companies. These are not venture debt. These are billion dollar revenue per year with 300 million EBITDA, there's a huge equity cushion. And so if you buy it right here, once again, the yield is based on the book value, the original book value which is around 17, you're getting around a 13% yield on this today. So to me this is a great way to play technology. I get a really high yield and over the next year or so I think we'll get really nice capital appreciation. And as Blue Owl's underwriting standards show themselves that they're just not willy nilly writing these loans. And I think the market's really wrong, especially on this, on this stock here.
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A
Okay, Weiss, what do you think about all this?
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C
You know, it's, I think they're going to be fine. And I think what people are, are not focusing on here is that a number of the companies in that, in that Blue Owl is lending to are going to have IPOs. And so I think that all the private equity firms are poised to outperform because we're seeing just massive, massive pipelines and they're going to come to market now. You're not going to have a great market that's going to go to pick Ed Yardeni's target without IPOs getting the all clear and secondaries to help take some of the debt off the balance sheet of these companies.
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A
I have some of that.
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C
Yeah. So, so I think we're, so I think we're fine. They underwrite responsibly. There will be write offs, as Bryn mentions, but blue out. I mean I've met some of these guys found the company. I mean, they're not taking chances. They've got significant wealth in there. So I'm not really concerned about it.
- [23:50]
A
You guys want to talk about bitcoin and what's been happening with, with that? Let's take a look whether we could stay there for a minute. This stock is moving and you know, maybe it's in part on Brin's move, maybe it's in part on Weiss. The narrative that you have around some of these. You got a last thought here. As we look at, I mean it's.
- [24:10]
D
It'S the signature of what I mentioned at the top of the show. It's deleveraging. It's the reduction of utilizing debt within the market. I think there were a lot of margin calls and we saw a cascading effect of all of that and ultimately it led to a pretty print of 60,000 in Bitcoin. Steve knows better than I, Brian knows better of I where it goes from here. But generally what tends to happen, as you and I discussed last week about the silver market, is when you have that type of deleveraging, people leave the market for a temporary or talking about.
- [24:41]
A
Talking about this, what we're looking at on the screen you mentioned bitcoin.
- [24:45]
D
You said, do you want to talk about bitcoin?
- [24:47]
C
You did. I'm with Scott, see.
- [24:53]
A
Okay, let's talk about bitcoin because I started talking about bitcoin but then mentioned Blue Owl in the move and that's. We went back. I heard you say, I heard you.
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D
Say let's talk about.
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A
Well, I know what you heard me. Thought you heard me say. Can we look at bitcoin now, please? Bitcoin now.
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E
Okay, There we go.
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A
Bitcoin 69. So we're under 70. Brin, you bought more of the ibit.
- [25:17]
B
Yeah, I think that what's going to come out, I've talked about the yen, the leverage in crypto, what you saw to Joe's point, the leverage in gold and silver. It just, what was happening in crypto felt like a massive washout and this ripple effect. So I just think it was overdone. So I took the opportunity on Friday to add to the position. So I'm a long term holder. Buy low, sell high. I don't buy into if you go on like X or something, the bear narrative is, is out of control. I just think this was a good old fashioned massive margin call that I think we'll find out, let's say when all the 13F come out what actually happened here. But to me it does feel like this is something really over levered, got overdone and so added to the position. Nothing more than that.
- [26:03]
A
Okay. I mean Bernstein today says nothing's broken in bitcoin. That the current price action is a mere crisis of confidence. Nothing broke, no skeletons will show up. The bitcoin bear case is the weakest in its history. The bitcoin bear case is the weakest in its history according to Bernstein. You agree with that? I've almost. I feel like it's the exact opposite of that people think now it's the exact opposite of that. Like the bear case around it feels like it has more legs.
- [26:35]
C
Yeah.
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A
It feels like it's maybe more than just a crisis of confidence.
- [26:39]
C
Yeah.
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A
But you, you got, you tell me. Yeah, look, I channeling what I hear and suspect and not necessarily what what I, what I know.
- [26:50]
C
Okay. If Adobe's in the too hard bucket, my too hard bucket and Brad, this is in the impossible bucket. And the reason I say that is that nobody's been able to tell me what the intrinsic value is here. Nobody's able to tell me what, what the business use cases are. You can make something up like blockchain technology and security, but that's, that's bs. We've seen so many of these, you know, bitcoin wallets stolen. So I think what you've also seen, and I mentioned a few weeks ago, you've seen some of the bitcoin holders who incorrectly thought this was a store of value move into gold. So now they're in gold. And this is a massive drawdown.
- [27:30]
A
My points like, yeah, oh, it's digital gold. It digital gold. It's digital gold until gold looks pretty good and then, well, gold is gold.
- [27:36]
C
Yeah, gold is gold and gold will always be gold. There's no there there. Now it should bounce because rent's right live margin calls live. You know, we're just Momentum players. Momentum has been dead for a while. They finally threw in the towel and sold it. So theoretically you should get a bounce, but you need man, and you need $100,000, 100,000 Dow to see this go up.
- [27:59]
A
All right, so let's take a break. I've got Jimmy making a move. Excuse me, I've got Weiss has, has sold a couple. Ellie sold a well known name. He trimmed another. It was on Friday. We never got to it. We were a little busy obviously. And then Joe is buying more of a name we need to tell you about too. Do that when we come back.
- [28:19]
C
Thy.
- [28:19]
B
Ticket lady, Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks Good sir, here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do. Here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Geth with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [28:42]
E
Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
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A
That take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [28:50]
B
Hey, girl.
- [28:51]
A
What's happened?
- [28:52]
B
Is that your antiperspirant?
- [28:54]
A
Uh, yeah.
- [28:55]
B
Let me see that can.
- [28:57]
A
Aluminum, butane.
- [29:01]
B
I cannot pronounce that. You have to switch to native deodorant. Native's simple formula has only clean ingredients. It gives you effective 72 hour odor protection with no hydrocarbon propellants. Wow.
- [29:13]
E
This smells heavenly.
- [29:14]
B
Clean effective 72 hour odor protection isn't a myth. It's looking for a Valentine's gift she'll truly love. 1-800-Flowers.com knows what she wants. For 50 years, 1-800-Flowers.Com has helped guys get it right. Delivering millions of fresh Valentine's roses nationwide with high quality bouquets guaranteed to last. Right now, when you buy one dozen premium roses, they'll double your bouquet to two dozen for free. Valentine's is coming fast, so don't wait until the last minute. Double your blooms today at 1-800-FLowers.com. sxm. That's 1-800-FLowers. Com. Sxm.
- [30:03]
A
All right, we're back down. Still holding on to 50k. Let's talk about some moves that we never got to on Friday, but I know you want to hear about Weiss. You sold Uber.
- [30:11]
C
I did.
- [30:12]
A
You've been trimming it down and then you sold it.
- [30:14]
C
Yeah, I sold it all. I had been trimming it down. Look, just frustration with it, I think. Also, it remains to be seen the profitability of Robotaxis are partnering with Waymo. Partnering doesn't give you the same margins. So clearly the margins take a hit. And I think, you know, when I go back to why I bought it, I bought it because of scarcity. That there was Lyft, and Lyft continues to have their issues. And then there was Uber. So they were only game in town. No longer the only game in town. I don't think Robo taxis are going to be everywhere all of a sudden. But look, it just hasn't performed. And I was waiting for a more sustained correction to put that cash to work. So I don't mind having cash.
- [30:57]
A
Okay. You trim Netflix more. We don't need to get into it again. Because you've consistently trimmed.
- [31:03]
C
It's just dead money.
- [31:04]
A
That's what you've Said, yeah, just because the deal uncertainty.
- [31:08]
C
Exactly.
- [31:08]
A
So you bought more Corning?
- [31:09]
D
Absolutely.
- [31:10]
A
Yeah.
- [31:11]
D
And I.
- [31:11]
A
Tell me why.
- [31:12]
D
I've explained over the last several weeks the fundamental reason why the $6 billion relationship with Matter through 2030, the consumer premium glass market share that this company.
- [31:22]
A
Has the glass, the glass that Bitcoin obviously uses.
- [31:25]
D
So now what we're doing is we're recognizing the strength of the technicals and the momentum. And in the most recent Jyoti robot, a rebalance, we saw a significant move higher in the ranking for Corning. I'm excited by it. It's sitting right on the threshold. So I'm going to continue to buy more. I look my initial buy at 109 on February 2nd. Zoom is another name that I bought around that day. I'm going to continue to add to what is working and moving higher.
- [31:53]
A
You see how good he's gotten at literally not listening to me at all. Just continuing to.
- [31:58]
D
Where are we going next?
- [31:59]
A
We're going to Cleveland Cliffs. Oh, I know.
- [32:01]
E
What? But Jim bought more, guys. No, come on.
- [32:04]
A
You bought more.
- [32:05]
E
Yeah, I did.
- [32:05]
A
That's the only reason we're going there.
- [32:07]
E
No, look, I bought you over the entire floor. Hang on, I know it's all funny, but let's talk about this. First off, why is this stock down? Stock is down mainly because it was up 45% over the last six months coming into this now, maybe people wanted something more from this report. If you wanted something more from the fourth quarter reported, you're looking in the wrong direction. You got to look, look forward where what we're seeing is prices on hot rolled coiled steel going up. You're seeing volumes going up, you're seeing costs going down. 2026 is going to be a good year. Now, some people may also have been wondering what's going on with the Posco deal. Do bear in mind that there are negotiations going on between the governments of the United States and the government of South Korea about a trade deal. So Posco is obviously going to wait for that to be done before finalizing any deal with Cleveland CL Cliffs. And Cleveland Cliffs isn't going to do any deal unless it makes sense. They don't need to because as I just said, volume's going up, the prices that they are achieving are going up, and the costs are going down. I've bought this stock on dips before, Steve. You'll remember first quarter last year, stock was down at 7. I bought some more. You said you wanted to stage an intervention. It was funny, but it was inaccurate because you were supposed to buy then as you're supposed to buy now.
- [33:14]
A
Joe.
- [33:15]
D
Jimmy, may I ask a question on, on behalf of the viewer? Okay, you look at the stock. Stock is sitting right now at the 200 day moving average. The stock is down 17%. That's a big, that's a big move in one day. Also, the price action today is not particularly encouraging because the Stock is down 17% and it's literally sitting on the lows. So where are the buyers coming in to accumulate? What do I do if it breaks below the 200 day?
- [33:41]
E
Speaking like a trader, I respect it immensely. There's too much fundamental going on here that in my opinion outweighs what you're talking about. Yes, it's down a lot on the day. As I said, it's up a lot over the last six, three months. And again look for when the U.S. south Korea trade deal is finalized, that Pasco probably comes in and that's unfair.
- [33:59]
C
Jimmy, you say it's up a lot over the last six months to pull back five years. Yeah, I mean, you know, I sold the stock in the 20s. You thought it was going to the 40 water, not a commodity business, that, that, that they'll always generate mounds and mounds free cash flow. And they have it. So what point do you say, you know what, I'm in love with this rather than an investor.
- [34:20]
E
I respect you respect the question. Here's the answer is I traditionally with all the stocks that I think I have a fundamental thesis in that I have an edge in when they go down. I buy as was true with Citigroup, Win Resorts, any of a number of names like, like that Boeing. But let me continue here, okay, because your point, it's a commodity stock, except there's a difference here. Five years ago this stock was doing 2 billion in sales. Now it's doing 20 billion in sales. How have they done that? They've done that by taking the cash flows and investing it in acquisitions. And those acquisitions that they have now digested are going to show the free cash flow generation this year from those acquisitions. Just take that 2 billion and that 20 billion and apply ply the 13% EBITDA that historically has been their margin. You're going to see a pretty big cash flow uptake here.
- [35:06]
A
Let's get the headlines with Courtney Reagan. Hey, Court Scott.
- [35:10]
B
Ghislaine Maxwell invoked her fifth amendment right to avoid self incrimination during a deposition today with the House Oversight Committee. The Republican led panel is leading a probe into the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Chair James Comer said Maxwell wouldn't answer questions as expected, expected unless she was granted clemency. He also said depositions from former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton later this month would take place behind closed doors, but eventually be made public. A White House official says President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in D.C. on Wednesday. Netanyahu's office says the two will discuss the indirect nuclear talks the US had with Iran last week in Oman. And nurses at the two of the three major hospital systems in New York City announced a deal today to end a nearly month long strike. Union leaders say the agreement affects nearly 11,000 of the 15,000 nurses who walked off the job last month, calling for better staffing levels, workplace safety measures and health insurance. Scott, back over to you.
- [36:09]
A
All right. Thank you very much for that. That's Courtney Reagan. Coming up, we have more on the crypto crash, how ETF investors are playing all that volatility. That is next in today's etf. This is a vacation with Chase Sapphire Reserve. The butler who knows your name.
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E
This is the robe, the view, the.
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A
Steam from your morning coffee. This is the complimentary breakfast on the balcony, the beach with no one else on it. This is the edit, a collection of handpicked luxury hotels you can access with Chase Sapphire Reserve and a $500 Edit credit that gets you closer to all of it. Chase Sapphire Reserve now even more rewarding. Learn more@chase.com Sapphire Reserve cards issued by JP Morgan, Chase bank and a member of FDIC subject to credit approval. Comcast Business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking.
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E
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A
The patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on.
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E
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business, powering possibilities restriction supply.
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Looking for a Valentine's gift she'll truly love? 1-800-flowers.com knows what she wants. For 50 years, 1-800-flowers has helped guys like you get it right. Delivering millions of fresh Valentine's roses nationwide. 1-800-Flowers offers premium fresh cut flowers backed by their seven day freshness guarantee plus same day delivery when you need them on time. Valentine's is coming up and bouquets are selling fast. So don't wait on this order today at 1-800-FLOWERS.com/SXM. That's 1-800FLOWERS.com/sXM. And we're back on halftime, Mackenzie seagallows with your ETF Edge. The recent hard slide of major cryptocurrencies has investors reexamining the entire ecosystem, including the ETFs, to track them. Instruments tied to digital assets were expected to be a major source of innovation and expansion for the ETF industry in 2026. Now, that's all in question. Joining me is Will Ryan, founder and CEO of Granite Shares. Well, of course there's the general risk off mentality happening here, but is there more that drove the recent downturn?
- [38:26]
A
I think that there's a lot of leverage in the system that when you started to see some of the biggest winning trades in AI lose value, I think that scared a lot of people. Big liquidations in other asset classes such as precious metals, gold, having a big drop since the 1980s. So I think a lot of deleveraging that affected crypto.
- [38:47]
B
And as we mentioned, this was a place of expected expansion for the ETF industry in 26. But given spiking crypto volatility, what are you hearing from issuers? Are they delaying or resequencing rollout plans?
- [38:59]
A
I don't think so. I think the for people that are still very much on board with crypto, this won't change anything. Perhaps it will be a guide as to a healthy correction in the market. I don't think any plans will change. It's more for underlying investors. Have they lost any faith in this.
- [39:16]
B
Downturn and in terms of new instruments that you're seeing come to market, I think that we've already been through a lot of the spot crypto ETF filings. But what about ones that involve leverage or, you know, indexes that involve multiple crypto prices pegged to one particular etf?
- [39:32]
A
I think that's now where the action is. So the vanilla crypto products have been done. They're gone. But now with options products out there, other forms of crypto adjacencies, I think that's where people are looking to product innovation to design the next funds.
- [39:47]
B
Well, thank you so much. We're going to continue this conversation over at ETF Edge. CNBC will will be there, joined by Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise Asset Management. Back to you, Scott.
- [39:59]
A
All right, Mac, thank you. Mackenzie Segal is coming up. The Seahawks weren't the only big winners in last night's big game. Our contestant Brewer following the money. The money, excuse me, on the big betting boom and the results from it.
- [40:29]
C
Welcome back.
- [40:29]
A
The amount of money bet on this year's super bowl hitting record highs are Contessa Brewer following that money as always for us. Tell us more.
- [40:36]
B
Well Couches trading volume came in at nearly 20 times the volume of last year's Super Bowl. More than half a billion dollars just on the market. Who wins the the game for the sportsbooks payments processor. Paysafe says it saw a more than 42% jump in betting volumes over last year in this game. And Juice Real, which is this platform that connects gamblers betting and trading accounts so they can track all of their bets across platforms says 37% of the bets that it came it saw were parlays here. So this would be a game that would bust a lot of parlays.
- [41:13]
C
Right.
- [41:13]
B
Because you had the Patriots scoring zero at the half. Seattle only scoring field goals. The total points, low total yards. How's this for bad luck? 666. I mean anything less than 700 yards in a game is great result for the sportsbooks fanatics told us its same game parlays materially outperformed expectations. And Caesar says two of the most exciting bets in terms of action on the game game came in on the coin toss. Are you ready for this? An Iowa gambler bet $100,000 on tails. A Nevada gambler bet 253,000 on heads for a profit of more than 245,000 bucks. I misspoke earlier today about the payout, but now I've got it correct. It's like going all in on red, right? The markets open trading on next year's championship game. Seahawks and the LA Rams have the top spots. Buffalo is showing up for the AFC in the third spot.
- [42:08]
A
Seahawks and the under was a very popular and lucrative bet. I mean people thought that that was a pretty good if not sure bet going in based on defensive game expected and that maybe the pros thought that the Seahawks were, should have, could have, would have in other scenarios been favored by even more, more than four and a half. So. Well that got a lot of talk.
- [42:33]
B
That combo they under beat the spread there. You know it was like. And here's the other thing. You saw the volume of bets for the coming in for the sportsbooks coming in from the Patriots even though the sports books clearly had Seattle as the favorite.
- [42:50]
A
Did you say that you said that the volume for the sports books was 42% higher.
- [42:56]
B
Yeah.
- [42:57]
A
Than last year's game.
- [42:58]
B
That these would be have been the payments process. Paysafe is looking at the payments process and said it saw 42% volume of payments process going up. We're still waiting on the sports books now look, DraftKings reports earnings later. Jason Robbins sat with me on Friday. He's like, look, I'm not even going to tell you about the volume going into the game. We're in quiet period. I've got to be really careful here. But, but what you might expect to see and again, the trading volume on Kalshi does not equal the handle on DraftKings. Right. Handle is a totally different number. But, but 20 times the trading volume on Cows overlap.
- [43:39]
A
Yeah.
- [43:40]
B
And I should say we have a disclosure here. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship which includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
- [43:50]
C
Were there any bets on Bad Bunny having more ground?
- [43:55]
A
We got to go contested.
- [43:58]
C
Thanks.
- [43:58]
B
Sure.
- [43:59]
A
And I saw that somewhere else. You ripped that off. Santoli's next. Senior markets commentator and overtime co actor Mike Santoli here for his midday word. So Friday getting some carry through.
- [44:28]
C
Yes.
- [44:28]
A
Mega Caps had a huge day on Friday following through Nasdaq's leading in a pretty decent take.
- [44:34]
E
And the question is whether this is.
- [44:35]
D
Just the market again finding another way to rebalance itself after we, we really did play hard in the direction of old economy over new. I think there was some pretty persuasive work that maybe there was enough of a reset in kind of the off, off balance momentum trades and we worked through some of that mis positioning and now we don't have to kind of grab for the stuff that hasn't worked so much longer.
- [45:00]
C
We'll see.
- [45:00]
D
I'm still very agnostic. I still am very conscious of the fact that the stuff that seems like everybody, everybody wants to play a hotter economy is no longer a secret. It's no longer undervalued. It's building in some decent expectations. And you know, so far it's worked. You can't really argue with the results except that the S and P has sort of acted as if it's been capped. I don't know how many times we have to have an intraday high above 6980 before we say that it's, it's a cap, but it's not, it's not a negative trend. It's just kind of a stall phase in the index while the majority of stocks outperform the index.
- [45:34]
A
All right, I'll, I'll see you at 3 o' clock on closing bell. We'll continue the conversations. MIKE Santoli, finals are next.
- [46:04]
D
Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [46:19]
A
All right, we're back. The setup you got Spotify, Joe, falling tomorrow.
- [46:23]
D
I mean that's all you need to say. It's a falling knife. It's broken momentum barely survived the most recent momentum screen for the rebalance. Who knows?
- [46:33]
A
I mean the, the thing about this is I disrupted. You could put in.
- [46:39]
C
Yeah.
- [46:40]
A
You could go to. You put in like say give me the. Give me the best playlist of these. Whatever. Now it's like the mechanism to actually play the music. But you know, stock reflects something that is reflective of what I just said.
- [46:52]
D
You also had the CEO who's the founder leave the company and they haven't recovered.
- [46:58]
A
I got you six months down 41% three months down 30 to one month down 23. Dan Greenhouse, Sonali Basak, Dan Ives, Bill Miller, Ashley McNeil are on the closing bell at 3 o'. Clock. I'll see you then. Brian, what's your final trade today?
- [47:12]
B
Info. It's a strategic way to play infrastructure but in asset light companies and royalties global exchanges the toll booth of the infrastructure market.
- [47:22]
C
Weiss, Amazon. For what I said I think it bounces.
- [47:25]
E
Farmer Jim Transocean told you about this two weeks ago.
- [47:28]
D
Interactive brokers ready to make a new all time high.
- [47:31]
A
Well, it's on the way there. All right, I'll see at 3 o' clock on the closing bell. The exchange begins right now. Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking.
- [48:27]
E
Frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become.
- [48:36]
A
The patient scanning data managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on.
- [48:41]
E
With leading networking and connectivity advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership. Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business. Powering possibilities restricts in supply.