CNBC Halftime Report – How to Trade the Tech Sell-Off (February 12, 2026)

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, hosted by Scott Wapner, dives into the ongoing sell-off in technology stocks and the emergence of “old economy” names (or as panelist Josh Brown prefers, “Halo” stocks) as market leaders. The investment committee—including Josh Brown, Carrie Firestone, Malcolm Methridge, and Jason Snipe—debates the sustainability of these rotations, discusses risks in technology and cyclicals, and analyzes the shifting international investment landscape. The episode is packed with pointed observations about capital allocation, asset-heavy tech trends, and the psychology behind the current market volatility.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. "Old Economy" vs. Tech – The New "Halo" Dynamic

[01:01–05:51]

• Old Economy Redefined: Josh Brown insists on reframing the "old economy" as the “Halo” sector—not just industries with physical assets, but those with irreplicable, low-obsolescence value (e.g. Delta Airlines, Eaton). He underscores that indiscriminately labeling sectors "old" or "new," "value" or "growth," is outdated.

  • “It’s not about old vs. new. It’s about which companies have assets that are meaningful and can’t be replicated by something someone types into an LLM.” – Josh Brown [02:45]
  • Brown notes the momentum and technical strength in industrial, material, energy, real estate, and utility stocks—87% are above their 50-day moving average, median RSI at 67.

• Disruption Within Sectors: Even within the same sector, disruptibility matters. Delta (airlines) is “halo”—can't be replaced by code. Expedia (travel booking) is “highly disruptible.”

  • “LLM can’t code you a plane, but it can replace services like Expedia.” – Josh Brown [03:30]

• Market Data: Transports and industrials have outperformed recently, though took a hit on this particular day. Jason Snipe just added to Eaton as a way to play electrification and infrastructure trends.

  • “Electrification, energy transition, infrastructure, digitalization—these are all where Eaton sits.” – Jason Snipe [05:51]

2. Caution among Committee Members

[06:38–08:08]

• Malcolm Methridge: Avoids trades in transports/industrials, arguing that opportunities in overlooked software and old tech are more attractive.
• Carrie Firestone: Emphasizes staying diversified—recent strength in industrials doesn't mean neglecting tech. Risks persist even in “undisruptible” stocks like Delta or Coca-Cola; price and fundamentals still matter.
  • “We can’t just indiscriminately buy stocks because they’re not disruptible; every segment has risk.” – Carrie Firestone [08:08]

3. Mega-Cap Tech: Weakness and Explanations

[09:04–13:47]

• Capital Spending Jitters: Amazon’s $200B CapEx guidance spooked investors (stock on its longest losing streak since 2019).
  • “It's like in the cartoon when the safe drops on the coyote. You think it’s over, and then a piano falls.” – Josh Brown (on Amazon’s CapEx surprises) [10:38]
  • Panel questions whether the ROI from all this tech CapEx will be justified—refers to similar concerns at Google and other hyperscalers.
• Market Narrative Shifts: The market is newly skeptical after years of accepting “CapEx now for future growth” stories. Concerns over growing debt, depreciation of new data centers/chips, and creative financing have returned.
  • “Now you own the debt for that data center.” – Malcolm Methridge [14:09]
  • “The narrative has shifted.” – Malcolm Methridge [14:52]

4. Is CapEx Justified? (Jensen Huang’s View)

[16:09–17:43]

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) reassures that CapEx is “appropriate and sustainable,” defending that rising cash flows will support it and that it’s existential for cloud platforms.
  • “It is appropriate and sustainable… all of these companies' cash flows are going to start rising. … Not having the capacity needed would be existential.” – Jensen Huang (quoted by Josh Brown) [16:09]
• Panel acknowledges that while productivity gains are real (e.g. Google growing revenue with same headcount), risk management via taking profits (e.g. trimming Nvidia) is prudent.

5. "SaaS Apocalypse" and Executive Behavior

[18:55–21:14]

• Software Under Fire: The software sector has been hit hard. Analyst note points out lack of insider buying—perhaps because executives already own large amounts via options or grants.
  • “Can we at least put a freeze on some of the pre-programmed selling?” – Josh Brown [20:56]
• Selective Buying: Malcolm Methridge is buying ServiceNow, calling it a “disciplined bet” on solid fundamentals amid the storm (“catching the falling knife”). He distinguishes ServiceNow for having real free cash flow and profit, unlike most software names.

6. Tech-Driven Disruption in Finance and Real Estate

[22:11–26:34]

• Altruist and AI Disrupting Wealth Management Tools:
  • New tax features in Altruist’s AI tool (Hazel) could save “weeks and months” for advisors—spooked shares in LPL, Schwab, Raymond James.
  • “The importance of what they launched… should not be overlooked. They absolutely are going to change the economics of wealth management.” – Josh Brown [23:03]
• Are Sell-Offs Overblown? Malcolm argues that 10%+ drops in insurance, real estate, and banking due to AI tool launches are likely exaggerated, with many investors acting on fear rather than fundamentals.
  • “When is it going to be adopted by the enterprise?... It's got to be able to take over your entire machine and log in as you with your credentials. Do you think you’re going to allow that?” – Malcolm Methridge [24:32]
• Panic Selling Psychology: Panel agrees much current selling is driven by herd mentality and fear of being caught in a disruptive avalanche, not strictly fundamentals.

7. International Rotation: Buying Abroad

[29:24–33:19]

• Non-U.S. Markets Leading: Last year, international assets (Israel, Brazil, EM, Japan, UK) outperformed the S&P. Institutions like BlackRock, PIMCO, Amundi are shifting away from U.S. assets, prompted partly by U.S. policy unpredictability and expectations of a weaker dollar.
  • “All these different markets... have put through market reforms... People are interested in owning those equities, not just US investors.” – Josh Brown [30:56]
• International Dividend Play: Malcolm spotlights the iShares International Select Dividend Fund (IDV) focusing on “old economy” sectors abroad—energy, materials, utilities.

8. Housing Stocks Spotlight

[37:02–40:38]

• Josh Brown’s Pick: Pulte Homes (PHM) is his “best stock in the market”—technical breakout, “cup and handle” chart. Calls it the “bleeding edge” of housing with a simple risk management plan.
  • “This is the best of the homebuilders right now.” – Josh Brown [38:38]
• Jason Snipe’s Pick: Also bullish on D.R. Horton (DHI), highlighting affordability trends. Emphasizes no homebuilder is “disruptible” by AI.
  • “None of the home builders are disruptible by Claude.” – Josh Brown [39:19]
• Market Macro: Relative lack of momentum in housing-related stocks attributed to high mortgage rates and lack of affordability, but select builders are working.

9. Market Internals and Volatility

[41:10–43:03]

• Mike Santoli’s ‘Midday Word’: Treacherous action beneath surface, with the difference between individual S&P 500 stock moves and index itself near the 99th percentile (high internal volatility).
  • “A broader market is not necessarily a safer or more rewarding market.” – Mike Santoli [41:10]
• Transports Down: Today’s steep declines in transports and cyclicals seen as part of the crowded “run and hot economy” trade.

10. Chip Stocks and Software Earnings Setup

[43:54–46:11]

• Applied Materials: Carrie Firestone is long; expects muted earnings this year but strong setup for FY27.
• Toast: Facing relentless selling; Josh Brown highlights strong fundamentals but acknowledges nobody “cares” in this climate. He tries to catch the falling knife—knows the risk.
  • “From that 150,000 restaurant population, approximately 0% will abandon their payment software for something vibe-coded in the back of the kitchen.” – Josh Brown [44:43]

11. Final Trades

[46:47–47:19]

• Jason Snipe: Likes American Express (AXP) for millennial/Gen Z tailwinds.
• Malcolm Methridge: Spotify (SPOT) for price and subscriber growth.
• Carrie Firestone: Linde (European industrial gas)—no disruption, international exposure.
• Josh Brown: Devon Energy—remains in uptrend even as energy sector pulls back.

Notable Quotes

• Josh Brown [02:45]: “It’s not old versus new. It’s which companies have assets that are heavy, they're meaningful and can’t be replicated by something someone types into an LLM.”
• Josh Brown [03:30]: “Delta is halo. You can't code yourself up a plane... Expedia, unfortunately, highly disruptible.”
• Malcolm Methridge [14:09]: “Whether it appears on your balance sheet or not, you now own the debt for that data center.”
• Jensen Huang (via Josh Brown) [16:09]: “It is appropriate and sustainable. ... This is existential to these platforms. They can’t afford to pull back.”
• Mike Santoli [41:10]: “A broader market is not a safer or more rewarding market. … Too much internal volatility for the broader market to sidestep it for long.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Halo vs. Old Economy stocks: [02:29–05:51]
• Panel on Tech vs. Industrials: [06:38–08:08]
• Amazon’s CapEx and Mega-Cap Tech Weakness: [09:04–13:47]
• Large Tech CapEx Justification (Jensen Huang’s defense): [16:09–17:43]
• Software sector sell-off, insider trading: [18:55–21:14]
• Altruist AI tax tool disruption in finance: [23:03–26:34]
• Global asset allocation shift: [29:24–33:19]
• Best Housing Stocks – PHM and DHI: [37:02–40:38]
• Market internals with Mike Santoli: [41:10–43:03]
• Applied Materials and Toast earnings preview: [43:54–46:11]
• Final Trades: [46:47–47:19]

Tone & Style

• The panel exchanges are lively, occasionally humorous (“It’s like in the cartoon when the safe drops on the coyote... then a piano falls.”).
• Panelists ground their debates in recent data, practical investing experience, and skepticism toward overused narratives (“old economy,” “SaaS apocalypse”).
• There’s an underlying caution throughout about “following the crowd” in either direction and an emphasis on risk management in volatile, disruptive markets.

This episode will appeal to both active investors seeking perspective on the current tech-driven sell-off and to those interested in the shift toward asset-heavy sectors and international markets.