CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: "How to Trade the Market Volatility"

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Joe Terranova, Kerry Firestone, Shannon Sakosha, Steve Weiss

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the market’s sharp pullback from record highs, addressing whether recent volatility signals a deeper stall or just a momentary pause before another leg up. The panel of seasoned investors weighs in on sector rotations, the macro and policy backdrop, the fate of Big Tech and cyclicals, and where tactical opportunities may lie amid uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of Market Volatility

• Market Pullback: Major indices, including the S&P, Russell, and Nasdaq, all trading lower. The S&P is off more than 1%; Nasdaq down more than 1.5%; Dow drops over 300 points ([01:06]).
• Volatility Commentary:
  • Joe Terranova: Elevated volatility is prompting capital reallocations rather than outflows. Investors are moving away from last year’s winners (e.g., Mag 7, financials) into materials, energy, small caps, and some precious metals.
    • Quote: “It feels a little bit uncomfortable because it’s moving out of the familiar winners in 2025 … and going to places like materials and energy, where we were under-allocated last year.” ([02:06])
• VIX Watch: Frank Holland notes the VIX near 18—higher than recent days, signaling some anxiety, though not extreme ([03:12]).

Sector Rotation & Earnings Outlook

• Tech’s Pause, Cyclical Resurgence:
  • Kerry Firestone: Big Tech is flat, but other sectors like materials and industrials are outperforming.
    • Quote: “What we're seeing in the market right now reminds us of April … there’s fear and concern, but often the bark is worse than the bite.” ([03:38])
  • Kerry expects the current dip could be quickly reversed if earnings remain strong, as last year’s 14% growth demonstrates. She’s optimistic for 2026 ([04:52]).
• Global Diversification:
  • Shannon Sakosha: Advocates for looking beyond US large-cap growth, arguing investors need exposure to cyclicals and emerging markets now, not later, before expected earnings improvements in H2 2026 get priced in ([05:22]).

Macro & Policy Uncertainty

• Concerns About Policy:
  • Steve Weiss: Voices skepticism about the current “everyone is bullish” sentiment and points to Washington’s increasing intervention in markets and ongoing geopolitical instability.
    • Metaphor: “Imagine yourself in a rowboat… everybody’s on the right side, it gets rocky... Are we going to tip over or is it going to right itself?” ([07:14])
  • Weiss is holding steady, not deploying more capital, and always considers raising more cash ([09:22]).

Investment Posture: Caution Dominates

• Stay Put For Now:
  • Frank Holland/Goldman Sachs: Citing “door number three”—sometimes, it’s best to do nothing ([09:22]).
  • Joe Terranova: “Volatility… it’s going to be a different environment than we’ve seen in 24 and 25.” Has done little trading recently, favoring tactical, selective adjustments (e.g., energy, healthcare) ([10:23]).
  • Steve Weiss: Waiting for a market pullback (“maybe 10%”) to refresh valuations ([11:10]).
  • Kerry Firestone/Shannon Sakosha: Both emphasize the continued need to diversify away from Mag 7/tech heaviness and into broader sectors ([11:26]).

Tech Sector Strain & AI Disruptions

• Software Under Siege:
  • News Recap: Cloud-based AI agents and Apple’s new apps are challenging existing software players. Adobe, Salesforce, and others face growing competition ([12:40]).
  • Joe Terranova: Notes a sharp downtrend in software, with semiconductors’ outperformance masking tech’s underlying weakness ([14:35]).
    • Quote: “There is a clear trade … hedge funds are long semiconductors and short software. … That’s indicative of an environment for software that’s really troubling.” ([14:35])

The Cybersecurity Conundrum

• Geopolitical and Valuation Pressures:
  • Shannon Sakosha: Geopolitical and China-related news are weighing on cyber stocks, but long-term demand remains robust ([16:10], [17:13]).
  • Joe Terranova: Despite the consensus bullish thesis, current positioning is “trapped” and must unwind before a new rally ([17:13]).
  • Steve Weiss: “Valuations on these stocks are egregious… Why should I risk it?” But acknowledges the urgent need for more cyber investment ([17:56], [18:44]).

Financials & Market Volatility

• Financials:
  • Kerry Firestone: Last year’s rally in banks makes her cautious; many strategists now overweight, which makes her nervous ([20:39]).
  • Steve Weiss: Sticking with his large Goldman Sachs position, still sees a solid transaction pipeline and is not worried about post-earnings drops ([21:54]).
  • Joe Terranova: Favors exchanges like CME, ICE, Interactive Brokers, and names like Robinhood, noting the latter benefits from diverse business and crypto rise ([23:05]).

Commodities & Materials Rally

• Materials & Commodities Surge:
  • Kerry Firestone: Bought Linde for industrial gases, seeking diversification and exposure to recovering global manufacturing ([28:11]).
  • Joe Terranova: Points to the metals rally as a momentum trade and suggests agriculture could be a winner in 2026 ([29:47]).
  • Shannon Sakosha: Sees real assets like metals as a valuable portfolio complement, despite the disinflationary macro case ([30:46]).
  • Steve Weiss: Bought GLD as both a hedge and a momentum play: “I think it goes higher, that’s why” ([31:38]).

Energy & Utilities

• Oil’s Resurgence:
  • Joe Terranova: Oil’s up over 10% in a week, fueled by geopolitical events and hedge fund positioning. He expects a short squeeze to push prices higher ([35:23]).
  • Shannon Sakosha: Underappreciated supply risks in Venezuela; most investors are under-allocated energy and should look long term ([37:05]).
• Utilities:
  • Shannon Sakosha: Rotation out of last year’s hot data-center/utility names is natural. Some utilities are still good for defensive exposure ([38:18]).
  • Kerry Firestone: Likes NextEra for its growth and regulatory stability, despite recent volatility ([39:00]).

The Broadening Trade & Market Breadth

• Mike Santoli’s "MIDDAY Word":
  • Notes that while indices are under pressure, market breadth remains positive—more stocks are up than down. He highlights this as the “best-case scenario” for the much-desired broadening trade, but cautions that major index gains need Big Tech leadership to resume ([40:04]).
    • Quote: “A broader market is not necessarily a safer, more rewarding one. … I don’t know how we’re getting to 7,600 on the S&P if the big guys don’t start to lead again.” ([40:04])

M&A and Individual Stock Moves

• Netflix / Warner Brothers:
  • Panel skeptical of the rumored all-cash deal, expressing concern about value and history of failed content mergers ([41:43]).
    • Kerry Firestone: “If Netflix is buying this for 85 billion ... I don’t really understand this deal.” ([42:18])
    • Joe Terranova: Would sell position if possible; sees little enthusiasm for the deal among investors ([43:03]).
• Uber:
  • Joe Terranova: Sold the stock; expects it to remain range-bound absent a fresh growth narrative ([43:49]).
  • Steve Weiss: Sees it as “dead money” and likely to sell ([44:21]).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Joe Terranova on volatility: “Momentum is trying to find what will be the next trend … it looks like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is where that next trend ultimately is going to be.” ([02:06])
• Steve Weiss on current market risks: “You’ve got Iran, which would drive oil prices up, got Venezuela, you’ve got who knows what, and the ongoing battle with China. So there’s enough there to worry about.” ([07:14])
• Kerry Firestone on sector rotation: “If you have cash … sell and invest more broadly, whether it’s overseas or in industrials, some of the materials. I think that’s a reasonable trade to make.” ([11:26])
• Shannon Sakosha on waiting for global rotation: “If you’re not globally diversified today, you’re not exposed to some of these more cyclical sectors … if you wait until March, April, May … some of that’s going to be priced in already.” ([05:22])
• Mike Santoli on market breadth: “You have the indexes under a lot of pressure … but you have 300 stocks more on the upside than the downside … A broader market is not necessarily a safer, more rewarding one.” ([40:04])

Final Trades (45:41)

• Steve Weiss: Staying with GLD (gold)
• Shannon Sakosha: Materials for global industrial inflection
• Kerry Firestone: CNX, natural gas producer — “A very inexpensive way to play it.”
• Joe Terranova: Raymond James, for exposure to exchanges and tailwinds from volatility

Segment Timestamps (Selected)

• [01:06] — Market overview; pullback & set-up
• [02:06] — Joe Terranova on volatility and sector rotation
• [03:38] — Kerry Firestone on policy/fear and sector moves
• [05:22] — Shannon Sakosha on diversification and earnings
• [07:14] — Steve Weiss on macro/political dangers and investor positioning
• [12:40] — AI disruption in software; tech under pressure
• [14:35] — Joe Terranova on software/semi trade dynamic
• [16:10] — Panel on cybersecurity stocks
• [20:39] — Kerry Firestone and the financials
• [28:11] — Kerry’s new buy: Linde (materials)
• [31:38] — Steve Weiss on gold
• [35:23] — Joe Terranova on oil rally, energy positioning
• [38:18] — Utilities rotation, with Shannon and Kerry
• [40:04] — Mike Santoli’s “MIDDAY Word” on market breadth

Memorable Moments

• Steve Weiss’s rowboat metaphor for market sentiment and crowding ([07:14]).
• The panel’s unanimous skepticism about a possible Netflix–Warner Brothers merger ([41:43]).
• Joe Terranova highlighting the “door number three” approach—sometimes best to do nothing when markets are unresolved ([10:23],[09:22]).

Summary Tone & Takeaway

The panel’s tone is cautious but not defeatist: There’s widespread acknowledgment of volatility, sector shifts, and geopolitical/policy risks. Most guests advocate sitting tight, diversifying into cyclicals and global names, and waiting for more attractive opportunities, while warning against overconcentration in Big Tech or chasing themes that have become overcrowded or overvalued.

This episode is especially useful for investors assessing risk, seeking insights into sector rotation, and considering where the next big market moves may materialize in a year that promises to be anything but tranquil.