
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to trade the rollover in momentum as the semi surge runs into some resistance. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Scott Wapner
Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, lost momentum, what the rollover in that factor means for this record setting rally. We will discuss and debate with the committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Brian Belsky. Let's check the markets here where it is much the same story. We've got red across the board, nasdaq, the Russell among the biggest losers today as we look at it, Belsky, we've got three things driving the market. You got the backup in yields. So the 30 years the highest since July of 075 18. The 10 year hits the highest since January of 25 at 468. You've got the momentum rollover. As I said, the MTM is down five and a half percent since Thursday's close. The unwind in semis is leading that factor lower down 7% since last Thursday's close. Close. Wells Fargo says last Thursday marked a local peak, getting more cautious on the second half. How would you assess what's going on in this market?
Brian Belsky
Well, you never know where a peak is until you pass one. And that's definitely said from Wells Fargo. We were talking on the broadcast last week about markets being a little bit overbought and how semiconductors were primed for a pullback, as was tech. I think the most alarming thing that you said, I went into complex PTSD when you started talking about 2007 peaks in the 30 year Treasury. Those are our days back at Maryland. We were very, very bearish on the market back then with respect to what was happening with the yield curve and certainly credit spreads clearly this is in 2007. But at the end of the day the markets needed a refresh and needed a bit of a pullback and we believe this is very, very healthy. And again especially the trade in semis and we're going to talk about that later in the show in memory was way overdone. It needed a refresh.
Scott Wapner
Joe.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I think what's happening right now is a reaction to what we're seeing in yields as you mentioned Scott. But also think be very careful believing that this is some major inflection point. There's earnings to support the growth and a price appreciation that we've seen so far year to date. I just think the market was overextended to Brian's point. It was ready, it was ready for a little bit of a pullback. So ripe for some right for something. So you're going to hear a lot about long duration assets coming under pressure. We're going to bring that. Remember in 2022 that's all we talked about is long duration assets. Well if you think about this semi and AI halo, there's a lot of long duration assets there. Let's get the pullback. Let's get a little bit of a correction. But I think be careful two things. Number one, you have in video earnings tomorrow night. Be careful with that. And number two, I think because of the concentration in the market the market has the ability to rotate and I think that's important. I think you're going to see and you're seeing it today health care, some of the insurance companies, some of the banks. I think you're going to see some capital that's going to rotate, not go to the exit.
Scott Wapner
Yeah but I mean the rotation is to way more defensive areas of the market.
Steve Weiss
Sure.
Scott Wapner
Like utilities as you said, health care, consumer staples. Let's temper the idea though when you say rotate that we're going to get money coming out of tech and into some thing that's going to mean a much more broadening market because I don't think you're talking about that.
Jim Leventhal
No.
Joe Terranova
And therefore keeping the S and P near record highs though you are correct that's not the case.
Scott Wapner
So you know the Wolf talks about the momentum unwind Weiss that there could be further downside ahead. And bank of America's fund manager survey is kind of looking at the environment where they say there's been the bull capitulation is almost complete. That early June is ripe for profit taking bond yields to determine the degree of whatever pullback we get. We've been all in on risk on. You've got the most overweight cyclicals versus defensive since January of 2018. You've got the most overweight towards tech since February of 24. You've got the highest commodity overweight ever. You have the most underweight bond since June of 2022. 73% of those in their fund manager survey are long semiconductors. It's the number one crowded trade. In other words, it goes to the idea of we were ripe in many people's eyes for some degree of pullback. To what degree? We're going to have to sit back and watch. And maybe it's the direction of yields, as we suggested at the very top of the program, that are going to be the determining factor to the question.
Steve Weiss
I think it's purely relying on yields. How we go, whether we go up, whether we go down. I mean, take a look at what happened yesterday after the close and leaked before the close, which was Trump coming out and saying I was going to have, you know, was going to okay a renewal of hostilities. But we're moving so close to a deal. The market doesn't care anymore. Right. You've, you've said that, you know, you've sung that song so many times now. If you bonds were lower, I think the market may have cared. My point is that. That bonds overrule everything. Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Move the market for about five seconds.
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Because we were on the air during closing bell, we're having a conversation with a guest and all of a sudden you see this little spike. You're like, what's going on? And then, you know, you saw the president's post on Truth Social that he, you know, pulled back the supposed, you know, plans for the. For an imminent attack. Right.
Emily Wilkins
Rate.
Brian Belsky
Right.
Steve Weiss
And recovered half the losses in nasdaq. So I think that it all depends on rates. And rates aren't standalone. Right. They're a function of inflation as well and function of what's happening in terms of credit in the private sector. So that concerns me most. And the correlation between the inverse of the correlation between rates and equities gets. Goes to one one.
Scott Wapner
Right.
Steve Weiss
When you get rates as high. So that's the biggest issue and I don't see that being resolved soon. Now, keep it in mind when you mention a peak that even when the Internet bubble burst. Right. In 2000, it burst in March and then took a real leg down in April, the peak in capex spending wasn't until six to nine months later into 21. And can you. That was only the peak that was in decline.
Scott Wapner
I don't think people are. Anybody who uses the word peak on this program today is not thinking, correct me if I'm wrong of like the ultimate peak.
Steve Weiss
Correct.
Scott Wapner
You, you have, you could have numerous near term. Right. Numerous near term peaks in the market based on, for example, the semis going straight up from the March low. As we said, Jim, ripe for something to happen. And something has happened. The Sox is down 7% from last Friday through today. So we're not even three trading days from then. Teardyne 11% names like Micron down 10 and a half and so on, on and so forth. For the names that were up the most, could there be more of a pullback? Wolf says yeah, there could be further downside ahead. Semis are stretched. They're still hot. No one's ready to bail altogether from semis. But you could have a heating up according to bank of America of more risks going to be choppy at best in the near term.
Jim Leventhal
It is going to be choppy, Scott, and it was ripe for a pullback. But when we say that the semis were stretched, they were stretched from a technical point of view, from a share price point of view. What gives a lot of comfort to investors like me is that the fundamentals are very much intact. Many of the semis that we're talking about have earnings multiples that are in single digits still. You know, we look at Micron now, Micron isn't likely to get above, you know, much above 10 times earnings because eventually demand will ease and supply will come online. But the point being is this is not the semiconductor space was not in a melt up to a degree that requires some dramatic bottom fault falling out in the market. I do think this is, that's, that'll
Scott Wapner
be debatable to many people. I think if you, if you look at how much these stocks ran up from the March low.
Brian Belsky
Yeah.
Jim Leventhal
Well above their 200 day moving average.
Scott Wapner
Textbook definition of melt up. So I don't know what sort of exhibit you want to put into this courtroom that suggests that it wasn't. When we talk, come on.
Jim Leventhal
When we talk about melt up, what I worry about is after a melt up like in 2000, you get a multi year decline and you're not seeing those highs for years and years and years. And what I'm saying, Scott, is that is not the case that I see in the semiconductors, again, buoyed by their
Scott Wapner
valuation, had a melt up. You don't need to all, all melt ups and pullbacks are not created equal.
Jim Leventhal
Precisely my point.
Scott Wapner
But from Precisely my point from March 30th though to Friday, let's call, was nothing short of a meltdown 30%.
Jim Leventhal
So I go back, I go back to where I started my comment to you, which is that from a share price point of view, these stocks were definitely stretched. From a fundamental point of view, they were not the melt up. I don't want to do the, you know, it's well taken.
Scott Wapner
There's a difference between price action and valuation. You could look at price appreciation and say, well that's kind of insane. Well, at the same time you're making the distinction between now and back in, you know, late 90s, for example, because valuations were more stretched than price appreciation. Here you have the reversal. You have a tremendous run up in price, not an extraordinary run up in value. Less than 8 times forward earnings for Micron today.
Jim Leventhal
Can I add one thing to that, which is that when we got to March of 2000, which was the peak, we saw a dramatic, you remember this, Brian? Dramatic decline in demand post y2k, post the fiber optic overspend, overbuild. That does not appear to be the case right now. These data centers, despite a lot of social media pushback, are still being built. That's still where capital is going. That's still where the demand for these chips is coming from. And it doesn't show any signs of stop.
Scott Wapner
The worst question. Hold on one sec.
Steve Weiss
Let's.
Scott Wapner
Let me ask this question. If you, if you think, and you're the perfect person to ask since you run a momentum based etf, quality over is part of that. But if we lose the momentum trade.
Joe Terranova
Yes.
Scott Wapner
Okay. Can the market withstand that? That, that will be the determining factor more than likely to how deep any sort of pullback gets. Like if you, you're going to pull the rug out of the momentum trade, you got to have something to be a backstop to the market itself.
Joe Terranova
The answer to the question maybe comes tomorrow night because can the Mag 7 be the backstop? Because that will buffer the decline for the S and P. Obviously, logically the answer to your question is no. The market would, would move lower. It is very clear to me that the momentum factor is stretched. I want to just cite for one second the DRAM ETF, which we've been speaking a lot about. So we're, we're pointing towards price and valuation. Where are we as it relates to sentiment? Sentiment is still, despite what we've witnessed in the last several days, overwhelmingly bullish. The DRAM ETF is now had four consecutive days of inflows it's gathered three and a half billion dollars in the last four days. Yesterday, $390 million went into the DRAM ETF and took the other side of the momentum unwind. So dip buyers, I think, yeah, but I think that's indicative of validating the point that the momentum factor right now is in need of further correction. I think that is in the process and it's going to continue to unfold.
Brian Belsky
I think that's why technicians like Krinsky and DeGraff and Verone are going to earn their money because we have to see where this market settles in. Because I'll put the old strategist ad on. Stocks are rarely linear for long. Weiss had an amazing point. About 2,000 people forget that stocks lead earnings which lead the economy. Capex peaked six months after that and then 2001 we had a capex led recession. So people forget about all of that. We're nowhere near that type of a, of a pullback with respect to fundamentals or capex. So that's why technicians and momentum on a short term basis are very, very important in terms of where to get
Scott Wapner
back in my dip. Buyers like emerging on this, on this desk. Broadcom down six and a half percent. I mean Nvidia is down 6% from, from Friday. AMD is down 9%. See, everybody talks about, you know, buying the dip when it happens and then, you know, there's crickets for a while when the dip actually happens because people are afraid that the dip isn't over yet. So where are we on that?
Brian Belsky
You don't know where a top is until you turn from one, you know, or a bottom ones until you turn from.
Scott Wapner
Everybody have a problem, keep continuing to buy as long as they're making money.
Brian Belsky
So here's what we would say officially. I mean, we own amd, Broadcom, Nvidia. We don't own Micron. So this is a name that we missed. We missed huge, huge recovery. But we will say this though, on a fundamental basis. People seem to forget that the memory stocks, Micron in particular is one of the most cyclical and one of the most volatile earners in all the S&P 500 of all the semiconductor games.
Scott Wapner
Historically it has been. Now they say this time is different.
Steve Weiss
It never is, not with these companies. I mean, if you take a look right now, they're adding capacity in Taiwan. So every time there's this big move, they go to add capacity. Now we heard from Korea that they can't build the capacity fast enough. So not going to. But nonetheless they're sold out through 26 into 27. And the question is going back to the overall peak in spending. I think, I think people that invest in the semi starting to ask what we saw three quarters of a trillion dollars of Capex by just the mega caps, the hyperscalers, what's the likelihood we're going to see that level again next year? So they're questioning it. Right. And additionally, when you have bonds or rates moving higher, then it makes more expensive because now these companies are funding it with debt.
Scott Wapner
These companies haven't given any indication that they're no sort of gluttonous level of spending is going to end anytime soon. By the way.
Steve Weiss
The opposite action.
Scott Wapner
Exactly. Well, that's why targets continue to go up For Micron to 840@ Citi today to 800@ Mizuho. Targets on Marvell to 155. Target on Broadcom to 582. Target on 320 to 325 on Nvidia. Nvidia the 352 on Nvidia 2. 320 on Nvidia ahead of earnings tomorrow.
Steve Weiss
And I'm not saying it's done. I'm not saying so. I'm saying it's all controlled by rates. So all the talk about what the technicians are doing, what the fundamentals are just don't matter as long as rates keep going.
Scott Wapner
Sure, but do you think I don't. I think if the, if I think
Steve Weiss
they'll resume the upward climb.
Scott Wapner
I think if investors believed that you were going to have this continued move higher on rates, that I think the market would look a lot more red than it does. I'm just not sure. There's an old market belief that you
Steve Weiss
and I grew up in an old market. That's true. This market's much more optimistic and cares less about things and has frankly survived off V shaped recovery.
Scott Wapner
Yes, but if oil, if there's a resolution in the Middle east, oil is going to go down, rates are going to come down and we won't be having this conversation anymore.
Steve Weiss
10%.
Jim Leventhal
That's exactly right. I just wanted to come to the comment from Mizuho on Micron. Let's say they did meet that target, the multiple would still be just barely under 10 times 10, which is expensive though. No, but Steve, hang on a second because I'm agreeing with you, if you give me a second here. Which is the reason it is low relative to what you might think for a company that's growing like that is because of exactly what you Said Steve. Which is that capacity will come online. It'll take a little time. It's not like you snap a finger in a fab is created. But that's why Micron trades at roughly seven and a half times earnings. I don't think it'll get to that target, by the way, because of exactly what Steve is saying. Capacity will come online.
Scott Wapner
You're going to get a couple of good reminders or a sort of beat check on on AI in general this afternoon. Sundar Pichai, 1 o'. Clock. Google IO is today. Then of course you do have in video tomorrow with earnings after the bell. Everybody owns Alphabet on the desk. How do you feel about this? This is going to be what is expected to be today, an unveiling of one of the most ambitious AI updates in years. That's how it's being framed. Ahead of hearing from Pichai this afternoon.
Brian Belsky
Google's been our largest position in the Max 7 for well over a year. We love the company, we love how they've executed here. They're going to be this, they're going to be the pacesetter on how we're going to roll this stuff out. So we're very enthused about Google.
Steve Weiss
I love Google. Look, they were God, they were believed to be dead in the air race but yet they've come along and I'd say they're actually in second place. Their chips are being accepted. They only use them internally.
Scott Wapner
Second behind who? Some people.
Steve Weiss
Well, no, I'm talking about an capabilities to open air at the time.
Scott Wapner
Well, some people think they're, they're number one. I'm not counting Nvidia, I'm not counting in video.
Steve Weiss
I'm not talking about semi. No, I think there's a couple clear debate between anthropic and Google and that probably goes Google because.
Scott Wapner
Oh, I thought you were talking about publicly traded ones.
Steve Weiss
No, I'm talking about just in general in terms of the capabilities. In terms of publicly public ones, I'd say it is Google number one was
Scott Wapner
the best performer, I'll tell you that. It's up 41% from the March low
Steve Weiss
with the best balance sheet, let's not forget.
Jim Leventhal
You know why I love Google is because when we talk about is it the best in AI, there's three different ways to define that and it's in the race in all of them. Does it have the best model? Maybe. Does it have the best chips with their Tensor processing units? Maybe. I mean Blackstone and Google are setting up a new AI function using the TPUS and then there's the third way which I don't know, maybe it's the first way which is Google Web Services. So this sort of three headed multiple shots on goal in terms of how to play AI makes Google Google to me the clear leader.
Joe Terranova
Jimmy's point is well taken. It's Google Cloud up 63%. That's three consecutive quarters now of accelerating growth. And there's the ability there to see how we are monetizing the spend. And I think we're at a moment in this AI capex cycle with the hyperscalers that you have to show me how you're monetizing the spend. Amazon's doing it, Alphabet's Joe and it's
Jim Leventhal
really the only, the only company that has all three shots on goal. Right. Microsoft has OpenAI and it has Azure, Amazon Web Services and the Trainium chip's fine but it doesn't really have the model. Google's the only one that has all three.
Scott Wapner
Speaking of Amazon, I just want to get this in there that Jeff Bezos is going to join Andrew tomorrow. It's a CNBC exclusive interview on Squawk Box live from the Blue Origin Rocket factory. It's going to be, I mean I cannot wait for that interview. Just don't get a chance to hear from Jeff Bezos all that often. So tomorrow is an event in our business, no question about that. At 8 o' clock Eastern Time there's news on Alibaba today. Weiss, which you own, they released a preview version of their upcoming Quinn 3.7 AI model ahead of the planned launch in about a week. We're actually in a. I'm sorry, tomorrow.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. So let me put it this way. If Alibaba were a US company, not just a variable interest entity, which means you only share in their, in their, in their economics, not the asset value. If we're a US company this stock would be one of the leaders and in cloud but it's not so it gets a penalty for that. Nonetheless, I think that they are with China really doubling down on domestic companies companies. Baba to me is the best I play there. So I would expect the shares to need to move higher. They've traded like a US share which they shouldn't so I wouldn't be surprised one day in fact to see Baba just repatriate everything into the do away with the Cayman vehicle and just be in trading in China get much higher multiple so, so I like quite a bit. I think it's low risk here and that they're a leader in AI, there's
Scott Wapner
some interesting moves this week in software.
Joe Terranova
Sure is.
Scott Wapner
I wonder. And you're going to get Zoom, by the way, on Thursday. But do you believe in this move or is this just for a trade? Money. A little money coming out of semis and money going into software. I like, but not, I mean soft. The ITV is up 24% off of the low in April.
Joe Terranova
So there has to be a thesis to validate the move. Cyber is having a spectacular move. I'll raise my hand. I've missed it, unfortunately. If we could show CrowdStrike. I think CrowdStrike is at a 52 week high right now. It's Palo Alto, it's Fortinet. In addition to that we are going to hear from Zoom Communications on Thursday and they really are a proxy for Anthropic right now in the public market because of the investment that they made in 2023 of $53 million, which is probably worth six or seven billion dollars right now. In addition to that, we added Datadog at the end of the last quarter to the etf. If we could show Datadog as I speak, please. Again, there's a little bit of an element of that cybersecurity, that monitoring the infrastructure of the cloud. That's what Datadog does.
Scott Wapner
We believe in this.
Joe Terranova
See that in Cyber.
Scott Wapner
Well, pull the Lens backstrakes up 46% in a month. Palo's up 44. I believe the Cyber is up 54.
Joe Terranova
I believe the Cyber. I believe what I'm seeing because of the relationship with Zoom, with Anthropic and if we could pull the lens back on Datadog, you're going to see over the last 52 weeks that's at a high as well. So you need the thesis to validate the price appreciation. It's not universal across the board in the software industry. I don't trust others.
Jim Leventhal
Can I just point out to Joe something maybe you'll validate which is the igv if you look at a one year chart, I mean this is a clear double bottom, right? The temperature has been turned down. We know that we're not in the Citrini article days of February, but that was a bottom. It rallied. Then we had the during the Iran war retest of that bottom. I mean this to me, I'm not the greatest chartist, you guys are better than me. But this screams to me that it's going.
Joe Terranova
If we're going to suggest the entire software industry has this bottom, why isn't Palantir rallying? Palantir should be rallying much more than it is.
Scott Wapner
Okay, but then that's because you can't.
Jim Leventhal
But that's exactly why.
Joe Terranova
But then you can't lift the entirety of the software universe because embedded in the software universe is other names.
Scott Wapner
Like you said, you said at the outset, long duration assets. You could put Palantir right up there with the longest of long duration assets, which is in an environment where rates are going to go up, that stock is going to go down more relative to the others that you just named.
Joe Terranova
That's why you're strengthening my argument to Jimmy that I don't think you could say the IGV in the software industry in totality has found its bottom.
Scott Wapner
All right. So speaking of rates, mortgage rates just continue to to go up. Diana Olich has the very latest data for us now. Give us the news, Diana, please.
Diana Olich
All right, Scott, the average rate on the 30 year fix just rose 7 basis points today to 6.75% according to the read just in from Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest level since July 31. Rates are now up 33 basis points in just the last 10 days. The most recent low was in April at 6.29. That drop came after the sharp spike in rates at the start of the war when they went from 5.99 at the end of February and to 6.64 by the end of March. We are now higher than that. Stocks of the big three builders, Dr. Horton, Lennar and Pulte all down on the day. Now that move from the low of 599 to now 6.75 is a meaningful change in the housing affordability math. Buyer putting down 20% on a $420,000 home, roughly the national median. Their monthly principal and interest payment has gone from $2,012 to 2,179, a difference of $167. And add up the rising oil prices and that it's real money.
Scott Wapner
Scott was just thinking about that. You add that gas prices and some food costs and everything else not good. Diana, thank you very much. That's Diana Olek. All right, we're going to take a break. So we've got three moves that I didn't get to. I'll do that at the top of the next block. Got some calls of the day to get to as well. We'll see you in two.
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Scott Wapner
All right, committee moves. I told you we have some. Joe, you sold the XPI October 1st.
Joe Terranova
I first took a position at 101. I continued to buy higher as we moved higher. We were at a point now where I said to you before long duration assets I think are going to feel some stress unless there actually is a trump put in the bond market. And if you look back historically, biotech does not like the fact that rates move higher. They are not friends.
Scott Wapner
Wow. So you're selling it because you think rates are going to remain higher. First, it sounds like you are buying high with the intent on selling higher. One would.
Jim Leventhal
Which I did.
Scott Wapner
If they write a book about that they would do.
Joe Terranova
I did. But we are, we are at a stress point right now as it relates to yields and I don't know where's the trump put.
Scott Wapner
I mean it's always lurking there.
Joe Terranova
Last April, always lurking it was there. We went from 385 to 454 tried for yesterday.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so Weiss, you sold FTA Aviation.
Joe Terranova
Yep.
Steve Weiss
And VRT. Scott, you know what I hate worse than blasphemous attempts at fashion like that tie represents? Yeah, I hate losing money on trades. So I'm not going to going to stay in that and lose more money. I lost money in fta, made some in vrt. I'm leveraged enough to the cycle And I, with my view that there could be a 5% drawdown overall, I just don't want to stay.
Joe Terranova
And I called him a gentleman yesterday. What a mistake.
Scott Wapner
Well, everybody knew that that was nonsense the minute that you said it. Why don't you try wearing a tie for a change? You also sold Vertif.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, yeah, same thing. I made money invertive. I lost money. Fta, fta. So I'm just sticking the sidelines as long as rates keep going up.
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's do some calls. Lilly was reiterated a buy today at Citi.
Brian Belsky
Yeah. We've owned this stuff for a long time. We. In fact, you know, when there was at one point in 2024, it was a Mag 7 stock and that's when we got worried. We sold half the position because the
Scott Wapner
market cap got it to a trillion dollars.
Brian Belsky
That's what I'm saying. Yeah. And so I think too many people are focused on obesity. This company has done an amazing job with respect to Crohn's disease and diabetes. And that's why we continue on the
Scott Wapner
name GE Health Care. The target is cut by $15 to 80 at Argus. They still like it, Joe?
Joe Terranova
Well, I think a lot of cuts are going to happen as it relates to the price target for this company. It's still a little bit way too high. We bought it in the recent rebalance, the stock is wallowing near a 52 week low. But if you get a rotation rotation in the market, you're going to see a lot of these medical device names that are ultimately going to work. So this is a quality company. It does deliver strong revenue growth and it might actually be at a good cyclical moment in the market where it plays into the medical device's favor if you get the rotation away from momentum.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so you. We just said you sold the xbi.
Joe Terranova
I did.
Scott Wapner
Okay. Do you still own Gilead though?
Jim Leventhal
I do.
Scott Wapner
So square that for me. When you answer the question of. Of the target getting cut to 150 at Daiwa. Yeah.
Joe Terranova
So again, remember that.
Scott Wapner
Is that in the etf?
Joe Terranova
The. Yes. Oh, the XBI was personally. The SBI is personally. So there's things. A technicality. There are some things that I can't obviously do. Brian, you're going to learn this.
Brian Belsky
Well, we know. Thank you.
Joe Terranova
That you can't do. But I will say this about Gilead. It's bumping right along that 200 day moving average, if you believe in that. And it's held support there on multiple tests over the last 30 days.
Scott Wapner
Okay. So how met aerospace target to 300. It's a modest bump. 20 bucks.
Joe Terranova
I like this. I like the spot. You had 19% revenue growth in the last quarter of last three years. You delivered 13% revenue growth. They're in right now the sweet spot as it relates to aerospace. This company has worked well for us with our ownership over the last several years and they seem to be continuing to capture market share. Remember, it's an industrial name. The industrial sector is favored. They benefit right now from the passive flows into the industrial sector as well.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so we're going to take a break. We'll come back. It's a big day for the Cumulus. He's humble, especially humbled today as he announces a new etf. We'll talk about the strategy, tell you the stocks that are in it. Next,
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We are back on Halftime Report. I'm Deirdre but Melosa with your CNBC news update. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch was grilled by the senate about the DOJ's $1.8 billion fund to compensate people who believe they were unfairly prosecuted by the Biden administration. Blanche dodged questioning on whether people involved in the January six attack on the Capitol would be eligible for the fund. Senate Majority Leader John Thune notably said he was not a big fan of the fundamental Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canal has condemned US Sanctions on Cuba a day after the Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions on 11 Cuban officials. In a post on X, he singled out President Trump's executive order threatening tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba. The comments come amid speculation that the US could carry out military strikes against the nation. And a US District judge ruled that federal agents can no longer make arrests in New York immigration courts without exceptional circumstances. The judge cited a serious interest in letting individuals attend proceedings without fear of arrest. Back over to you, Scott.
Scott Wapner
All right, Dee, thank you. It's Deirdre Bosa. All right, I mentioned into the break, Brian Bielski has a new etf. H I S is the ticker, which is for what? What is this about?
Brian Belsky
Well, we launched our own firm after 36 years of working for everybody else, Humulous Capital Investment Strategies. We secured the ticker six months ago. So we just try to keep it simple.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Brian Belsky
And we've managed a portfolio like this for almost a decade at various different other places. It's really 45 to 50 stocks based on trying to beat the S&P 500. And it's really based on our 30 plus years of looking at top down models of valuation, earnings growth, operating performance and technicals in sectors and then rolling it up and trying to find the best stocks for every sector. So the portfolio is represented by a stock from every sector. And obviously we're overweight those areas from a fundamental perspective that we like the most. And there's four big stocks right there that we've been in for a long time.
Scott Wapner
Does it have to be, is that by design that there has to be at least one stock from every sector?
Brian Belsky
Typically, yes.
Scott Wapner
With you, I mean, you can design it however you want.
Brian Belsky
Yeah, typically, yes, we like to, but we're going to be underweight certain areas when we don't want to be. Like for instance, in consumer staples, the only name we really like is Costco. But in REITs sometimes we're not going to be in some names. Or utilities is a name sector, by the way, that's easy to be underweight, but we actually, actually are overweight utilities right now. So we don't have to own a stock in every sector, we just design it that way to be diversified.
Scott Wapner
This is also, as you'll notice from the list, extremely weighted towards large cap stocks from Apple and Amazon to Tesla, a Visa, for example, a Walmart. Right. I mean you're looking large.
Brian Belsky
We're looking. This is a large cap S&P 500 product. You know, one of the things you tease me about is what portfolio do you own it in? We have the good fortune of running four additional portfolios of value, a SMID dividend growth. So this is designed to beat the market. We're actually net underweight, the Mag 7. We don't own one of the stocks in the Mag 7 so that makes us underweight. And so we've been neutral tech this year and we've been very good. We had the very good fortune of outperforming. So we've had a great run and we're going to continue on kind of owning the names that we own for a long time.
Joe Terranova
So it's a blend strategy. How much is it? What's the expense ratio on it?
Brian Belsky
I don't have that on the top of my head. You just got me right there.
Joe Terranova
Okay, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to ask you a gotcha question.
Brian Belsky
That's okay, that's okay. We're just excited to be live.
Scott Wapner
Have you been thinking about that? Did you know you were going to do this when you launched your new, your new firm?
Brian Belsky
Yes, that's when we were able to secure the ticker symbol. We've partnered with an amazing company, ETF Architect and they've helped us kind of get this past the finish line and they've been amazing. And again, you know, I'm not the smartest guy on this table. So all we try to do is provide our investors and our great platforms that have had the good fortune of adding us to their platform with trying to make money and some solutions.
Scott Wapner
Get the information if you could that Joe asked you because I think our viewers probably want to know it. You could post it on social. Trying to think of, if you look through, through these names, I mean they're pretty widely held again based on the market cap size. It's interesting. Why would you choose a Marriott for example, over. I don't see like a Hilton. I'm trying to think of why you would select stocks over others. Delta over United or American, for example. What's up with that?
Brian Belsky
So we own both United States and Hilton in our SMID portfolio because they're more mid cap names. Delta, we believe is the best airline overall. Marriott's a play on consumer discretionary because we love the brand, we love the way they operate the company and consumer discretionary. It's been really difficult to pick names. I know we're going to do talk about retail names, but Tesla and Amazon skew the sector so terribly that you can actually, actually create tracking here and have a bigger position in Marriott. And that's how we've been able to outperform.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Steve Weiss
So one of the things I like about strategy is that I view as does Buffett, as does Tepper, for example, others, that diversification is the enemy of performance. So you're able to zero on 50, 10% of the S&P, essentially 54 basis
Brian Belsky
points expense ratio, which is low.
Steve Weiss
And if you're able to zero in on a concentrate portfolio in this concentrate relative to the indices, then you should outperform.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. In a fairly conscious.
Brian Belsky
And again, so when we're talking, you know, broadly, like Belsky, what do you think of the market? We're going to be talking about the his because that's our primary portfolio. It's our US Focused opportunities sma. It's the same thing on the etf. We try to keep it simple.
Scott Wapner
Well, this is a bullish portfolio. Yes, but that's what I'm saying. This, this reflects your market view by virtue of the stocks you have. It has to.
Brian Belsky
Yeah. When you're a strategist for big banks for a long time and you're schooled in the art of compliance, you got to write about it first and then you implement it into the portfolios. We're doing the same thing. We haven't changed. So if we're bullish in our written work, which we are, we're going to be bullish in our portfolio.
Joe Terranova
And no time constraints. You could go in and out on a.
Brian Belsky
We can go in and out. We're going to be relatively low turnover. But when we look at stocks, Joe, we've always looked out 12 to 18 months. But in an active portfolio, this is going to be more active than let's say the SMAs for tax reasons.
Scott Wapner
Okay. All right, Good stuff. Congrats.
Brian Belsky
Thank you so much.
Scott Wapner
Santos next.
Joe Terranova
All right, welcome back.
Scott Wapner
Getting some news out of Washington to Emily Wilkins on the Hill. What are we learning? M.
Emily Wilkins
Hey, Scott. Well, the Republican path to holding on to the Senate after this midterms might have just gotten a little more difficult now that President Trump has come out with an endorsement for Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary in a truth social post, a lengthy truth Social Post won't go into the whole thing, but Trump did say that Ken is a true MAGA warrior who has always delivered for Texas and will continue to do so in the United States Senate. Now, of course, this means that Trump is going against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. He's seen a little bit more in the traditional Republican mold. And again, Cornyn was kind of seen as the best opportunity for Republicans to be able to to win against Democrat James Talarico Paxton because he is a little bit more in that MAGA mold. There are concerns that independents might wind up going over to the Democrats and potentially allow Democrats to pick up Texas, which they need if they want to be able to control the Senate next year. And of course, this is one in a number of now moves that Trump has made against incumbent Republicans. We saw it play out in Louisiana and we're going to be keeping a close eye on Kentucky tonight. Scott?
Scott Wapner
Emily, thank you. It's Emily Wilkins, our senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Mike Santoli joins us now. I guess we'll have a little bit of a wait and see before in video. I know, you know, yields that as much as yields have gone up, the move lower in stocks isn't necessarily reflective of of the magnitude of the move that we've seen in yields, you know. You know what I mean?
Mike Santoli
Yeah, for sure. No, we had the makings of a kind of more dramatic reckoning for stocks than we've seen so far based on what's happening with yields, based on the fact that the absolute dominant leadership group in this market has broken stride to some degree with semis kind of having a 10% pullback, you know, an intraday high to low. And now they've kind of firmed up from there. So it is remaining somewhat orderly relative to what you might expect. The VIX is still below 18. I was looking earlier at the SOX Semiconductor ETF and it basically came right down to its 20 day average, which of course is going up at a high angle. And if stock, if a stock or something bounces off of that, it usually means a strong short term uptrend, maybe just gotten tested and is intact and now we're trading over it. So so far so good. Although I do think you have to be sensitive to the fact that we're not always going to magically be able to rotate away from strength. Something could crack along the way. And what's going on in yields, you know, certainly having an undertow effect on things like small caps which are lower quality.
Scott Wapner
I mean it certainly would be more meaningful if the fundamentals match that, that that 10% decline in semis, for example. And the fundamentals in many people's eyes just don't. And that's why there's going to be dip buying like you're seeing right now.
Mike Santoli
Well, there's no doubt that the direction of fundamentals are positive in terms of earnings revisions and everything. But stock prices overshoot all the time. You know, even great fundamentals prices can overshoot to a fair degree. And that's always been the case. And that's but the extreme divergences we've seen, people have been pointing out the crowding effect in semis to the exclusion of almost everything else. I think that's the part that has to be dealt with in market terms. But without a doubt, I mean, prices have been going in the same direction as the fundamental story there.
Scott Wapner
I'll see at three, Mike, thanks. Mike Santoli. Coming up, options action with Oliver Renick. He's flagging some big bets today in the travel trade. He's got the action next.
Brian Belsky
All right, we're back.
Scott Wapner
Our own Oliver Renick is flagging some interesting options action in the travel trade today. Joins us from CIBO in Chicago. What do we see?
Oliver Renick
That's right, Scott. It's kind of a rough day for travel stocks. I'm looking at some of the cruise lines in particular. There's a lot of back and forth trading going on as Norwegian just makes a fresh one year low. Carnival and Royal aren't far behind. We saw more put buying than call buying in both Norwegian and Carnival, the two most traded cruise lines by options volume. But we also did see a pretty big contrarian bet in Royal RCL where someone stepped into thinly traded markets and casually picked up $350,000 of the 330 strike calls which are currently light years out of the money to the upside. So a very bullish view. But what's bad for cruise and airline stocks, which are down 9% in the last eight sessions, may show up in hotels. The hotel stocks have held on so far. One of the biggest trades on the tape today, though suggests otherwise. A $17 million sale of deep in the money 330 strike calls and Marriott likely someone with stock using options to pick up a little premium on their way out.
Joe Terranova
Scott.
Scott Wapner
Okay, appreciate that. There it is. I mean, you got some B options action in your Marriott today.
Brian Belsky
Well, again, I mean, I think my entire career, Scott, the guys can chime in here. I think it's really difficult to buy retailers in terms of the traditional apparel companies or restaurants. I mean, that's why Marriott's been such a core holding for a long time for us.
Scott Wapner
You had it. You used to own it.
Mike Santoli
I did.
Joe Terranova
Marriott was one of my favorite names in prior years.
Brian Belsky
Why was.
Joe Terranova
I think Marriott went through a period post pandemic where it lost some of the momentum and probably my attention was turned in other places. Wrong.
Scott Wapner
But you had some travel. It's like you exited travel altogether.
Joe Terranova
No, that's. That's for sure. We've been in travel, we've been in the airlines. We own Delta, we own United Airlines. Right now. You're okay. Some of the other names we own have not been good. Las Vegas Sands is struggling, Expedia is struggling. We have Airbnb. But that's all related, I think, to the Middle east conflict.
Scott Wapner
We'll take do finals next. All right, closing bell. Liz Thomas, Dan Greenhouse, Goldman's Ben Snyder. Mike Ozanian's. Got some NFL news that you want to hear about. Max Kettner as well.
Brian Belsky
Brian Belsky, what's your final Nextera Energy and ee. I love their purchase of Dominion Energy.
Scott Wapner
All right, that was the deal of the day yesterday.
Jim Leventhal
Farmer Jim Transocean. Don't fall asleep on this one.
Steve Weiss
Weiss, the abba for all the reasons I said before.
Scott Wapner
Okay, appreciate that. Burke Healthcare, Joe T. All right, I will see you at 3 o'.
Brian Belsky
Clock.
Scott Wapner
See what this market does the exchanges now.
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Date: May 19, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Guests/Panel: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Brian Belsky
Theme: Assessing the momentum rollover in the markets and strategies for navigating a choppier, more defensive environment during a record-setting rally.
This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report centers on the sharp loss of momentum in the stock market, particularly in tech and semiconductor sectors, and analyzes what this means for investors and the outlook for the record-setting rally. The panel debates whether the current pullback is a healthy correction or signals deeper risks, with special focus on shifting market sentiment, the role of rising yields, sector rotation, and tactical moves investors should consider. Notable market-moving events, upcoming earnings, and individual stock and ETF strategies are discussed throughout.
[01:01–04:24]
Backdrop:
Brian Belsky:
"Markets needed a refresh and needed a bit of a pullback and we believe this is very, very healthy." (02:07)
Joe Terranova:
[03:58–05:39]
Rotation Details:
Scott Wapner:
“Let’s temper the idea...that we’re going to get money coming out of tech and into something that’s going to mean a much more broadening market.” (04:02)
[04:24–06:59]
Scott Wapner:
Steve Weiss:
Says yields are dominant:
“My point is...bonds overrule everything.” (05:39)
Notes fleeting reaction to geopolitical news; market cares more about rates.
[07:00–10:59]
Jim Leventhal:
"From a fundamental point of view, they were not the melt up..." (09:21)
Scott Wapner:
“You have a tremendous run up in price, not an extraordinary run up in value.” (10:05)
[11:00–12:40]
[12:40–13:52]
[13:52–15:58]
“They’re sold out through 26 into 27...but they’re adding capacity in Taiwan…and companies are funding with debt.” (14:22)
[17:08–19:42]
Google/Alphabet:
“Google’s the only one that has all three [AI leadership factors].” — Jim Leventhal (19:29)
Upcoming Events:
[21:27–24:11]
[24:20–25:30]
“That move from the low of 5.99 to now 6.75 is a meaningful change in the housing affordability math.” (24:32)
[27:38–31:32]
[34:41–40:16]
“If we're bullish in our written work, which we are, we're going to be bullish in our portfolio.” (39:48)
[44:24–46:16]
Brian Belsky:
“You never know where a peak is until you pass one.” (02:07)
Scott Wapner:
“Let’s temper the idea though...that we’re going to get money coming out of tech and into something that’s going to mean a much more broadening market.” (04:02)
Steve Weiss:
“Bonds overrule everything.” (05:39)
Joe Terranova:
“Despite what we’ve witnessed in the last several days, [sentiment is] overwhelmingly bullish. The DRAM ETF has had four consecutive days of inflows.” (11:35)
Jim Leventhal:
“From a fundamental point of view, they were not the melt up...” (09:21)
Brian Belsky:
“Stocks are rarely linear for long.” (12:40)
Steve Weiss:
“I think it’s all controlled by rates...all the talk about what the technicians are doing, what the fundamentals are just don’t matter as long as rates keep going.” (15:46)
Jim Leventhal (on Google):
“Sort of three-headed multiple shots on goal in terms of how to play AI makes Google to me the clear leader.” (18:36)
Brian Belsky (on ETF):
“This is designed to beat the market...we’re actually net underweight, the Mag 7.” (36:39)
“You know what I hate worse than blasphemous attempts at fashion like that tie represents? I hate losing money on trades.” (28:40)
This detailed summary captures all key themes and debates from the episode, notable quotes, and tactical advice. Useful for investors wanting to grasp the evolving market view and how pros are positioning as the "momentum rollover" unfolds.