Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: How to Trade Today's Volatile Market
Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, Jason Snipe, Steve Weiss

Overview

This episode of the Halftime Report dives deep into the challenges and strategies needed to navigate today's highly volatile markets, dominated by surging oil prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, sector rotations, and headline-driven trading. The panel discusses how both institutional and retail investors should approach the current environment, where to find opportunity versus where risks lurk, and key developments in energy, software, financials, and private credit.

Market Recap and the Impact of Oil Price Volatility

[01:16–03:36]

• Frank Holland opens by highlighting broad market declines:
  • Dow down nearly 500 points; S&P and Nasdaq also in the red.
  • Oil surges over 5%, trading just under $88 a barrel.
  • Geopolitical headlines (particularly in the Middle East) are creating headline-driven market swings.

Joe Terranova’s Perspective

[02:08]

“If you are in wealth management, this is more cyclical volatility, more of a cyclical correction... I don’t think this is an inflection point.”
– Joe Terranova (02:08)

• Hedge funds/institutions: Tough environment for alpha, stepping back, providing less liquidity, “less is more.”
• Two headwinds: software sector weakness and continued drag from financials.

Strategies for Navigating Current Uncertainty

[03:36–06:18]

Steve Weiss: Hold Quality, Don’t Chase Volatility

[03:46]

"Return is defined by your point of entry. And right now we don't know if the point of entry is the right point of entry... Just hold what you have, don’t panic out. That’s always the worst thing to do."
– Steve Weiss (03:46)

• Advocates for long-term view: Accumulate high-quality stocks if they become attractive.
• Warns: Don't try to trade the current volatility; "That’s really a sucker’s bet.”
• Sees short-term benefits from AI-driven job cuts but warns of medium-term issues. Avoid consumer discretionary stocks for now.

Shannon Saccocia: Reaffirm Strategy, Diversify, Find Value in Fixed Income

[06:18]

• Focus still on quality stocks and diversified, global allocation.
• Points to potential bargain hunting in oversold areas (especially tech), hints at opportunity in bonds given duration, and notes stable fundamentals in many non-US economies.
• Key: Reiterate your thesis and use volatility to your advantage as a long-term investor.

“Taking these opportunities as they’re being presented to you is critical if you’re looking past the next 6, 8, 12 weeks.”
– Shannon Saccocia (08:18)

Where to Find Opportunities

[08:22–10:19]

Jason Snipe: Infrastructure & Select Tech

• Likes infrastructure beneficiaries (Eaton, Corning).
• Sees further opportunities among hyperscalers (big cloud/tech), given their resilience.
• Highlights software trading under market multiples (16x forward), especially those tied to AI as having “harmonious” growth prospects.

Oil Market Analysis and Broader Economic Impact

[10:19–14:29]

Joe Terranova: If Not Already in, Don’t Chase

“If you’re now in the moment and you’re trying to race to catch it, you’re not going to, because it’s the equivalent of the Rocky movie where he’s chasing the chicken... you’re just not going to catch it.”
– Joe Terranova (10:54)

• Early Q4 was the time to overweight energy; now, best to maintain, not chase exposure.
• Spot oil trading volumes surged with the Middle East conflict; now professionals/traders are stepping back.
• Oil could swing 10–15% on the next headline or tweet—extremely headline-driven.

Shannon Saccocia: Broader U.S. Economy Is More Resilient than Europe

• The impact of rising oil depends on duration—a short spike is manageable, a prolonged one would transmit inflation through supply chains.
• U.S. better insulated than Europe due to energy diversity, but not immune.

Consumer Discretionary Caution Amid Inflation

[14:12–16:19]

Steve Weiss: Consumer Facing a Squeeze

“Two thirds of the country live paycheck to paycheck... it comes down to less shopping at the Gap. Less shopping, period. Those issues aren’t going away.”
– Steve Weiss (14:45)

• Higher energy prices hit lower-income consumers hardest.
• Don’t buy into consumer discretionary; focus on essentials, as economic anxiety is weighing on retail and lifestyle spending.

Discussion: Infrastructure, "Halo" & Real Asset Trades

[16:50–19:25]

Jason Snipe:

• Real assets, infrastructure, and transports are “short-run” trades that can be impacted by the duration of oil disruptions.
• Points out scale of issues (120 ships/day through the strait; disruptions will last weeks at least) and their knock-on effects.

Joe Terranova:

• Not an “inflection point”—portfolio shifts not warranted yet unless bond yields begin to spike.

Oracle Earnings: Software in Focus

[19:25–24:47]

• Oracle shares jump on strong earnings and 20%+ EPS growth—the best quarter in 15 years.
• $50B in CapEx re-affirmed, strong data center buildout.
• Oracle’s backlog (RPO) hits $553B—“quadrupling year over year” [Shannon Saccocia].

Joe Terranova:

"It advances the premise of stability… the cloud computing execution allows them to go forward with that 50 billion in capex." (21:22)

Shannon Saccocia:

• Oracle demonstrates that fundamentals matter, especially in a sector facing skepticism over monetization/timing.
• Tech sector feels pressure on credit side as well as equity, not just an equity story.

Steve Weiss: Cloud and AI Changes the Software Landscape

"When you can write code without ever having learned how to write code, that's problematic for software companies… I just think it's treacherous catching a falling knife. The fundamentals have changed." (24:47)

• Sees risk for legacy software names (Salesforce, Adobe); prefers Microsoft, citing its AI leverage and diversified revenue.
• Cautions that traditional valuation frameworks may not apply if industry fundamentals are shifting.

Private Credit Under Pressure

[29:41–35:07]

Leslie Picker reports [29:41]:

• JP Morgan is marking down private credit fund portfolios—especially those heavy in software—limiting leverage to those funds.
• Not a crisis but a preemptive move; “pumping the brakes versus hitting the wall.”

Jason Snipe:

• Owns Apollo and Blackstone; sees tailwinds from insurance/retail business, willing to be patient despite year-to-date weakness (down ~30%).
• Likes Apollo’s limited software exposure (2%) and projected fee growth.

Joe Terranova:

• Financials: Over-owned coming into the year; exchange and insurance companies are stronger than banks.
• Urges Fed to provide transparency on loan valuations to avoid broader confidence crisis.

Steve Weiss:

"Private credit… is a shadow lending system… the ones to worry about are second and third-tier players that didn’t spend on the risk controls and the underwriting management. If I own those like you do, I wouldn’t be a seller… I’d rather miss the first 10% up than catch the next 20% down."
– Steve Weiss (34:14)

ETF Perspective and Portfolio Construction

[38:31–40:13]

• John Davi: Geopolitical risks are rarely long-lasting market drivers; bigger concern is weakness in private equity/credit space.
• Opportunities: Not in Magnificent 7, but in mid-cap, equal-weight, industrials, energy, and materials which can weather stagflation.

Stock-Specific Commentary

[41:00–44:45]

• Eli Lilly (LLY) – Joe: Pullback linked with broader biotech. Momentum seen in other healthcare names (Vertex, Gilead).
• Uber/ZooX Partnership – Jason: Another move into autonomy; likes the platform’s long-term position.
  • Weiss: Partnership could pressure Uber’s margins if AV providers bear more costs.
• Micron (MU) (43:10): High-beta, high-volatility tech; good recent run but caution advised on DRAM cycle and competition (SK Hynix, Samsung).

Midday Market Take

[45:09–46:34]

Mike Santoli:

• Market is “rationally hopeful” that the crisis remains contained; S&P in “wait and see” mode.
• Internals (bank weakness, sector churn) hint at underlying indecision.
• Tech “hardware trade” providing support.

Final Trades

[46:44–47:03]

• Steve Weiss: Buy FTAI Infrastructure (trading opportunity)
• Jason Snipe: Goldman Sachs – sees value due to overreaction
• Shannon Saccocia: Regional banks – pressured, but opportunity with lower rates ahead
• Joe Terranova: Lam Research (LRCX) – conviction in tech hardware

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Don’t panic out. That’s always the worst thing to do." – Steve Weiss (03:46)
• "If you’re now in the moment and you’re trying to race to catch it... it’s the equivalent of Rocky chasing the chicken." – Joe Terranova (10:54)
• "People have had a few weeks to... look at the fundamentals. That’s important, not only from an equity perspective, but from the credit perspective." – Shannon Saccocia (22:48)
• "When you can write code without ever having learned how to write code, that's problematic for software companies." – Steve Weiss (24:47)
• "I’d rather miss the first 10% up than catch the next 20% down." – Steve Weiss (34:14)

Important Timestamps

• [01:16] Frank Holland gives a market overview and panel intros
• [02:08] Joe Terranova outlines the two investor perspectives
• [03:46] Steve Weiss explains long-term positioning
• [06:18] Shannon Saccocia suggests diversified and global positioning
• [10:19] Joe Terranova on oil market strategy
• [14:12] Steve Weiss on consumer vulnerability
• [20:11] Jason Snipe breaks down the Oracle earnings “print”
• [24:47] Steve Weiss’s deep skepticism on traditional software valuations
• [29:41] Leslie Picker on JP Morgan’s private credit moves
• [38:31] John Davi offers ETF and sector rotation take
• [41:00] Panel discusses Eli Lilly, Uber/Zoox, and Micron stock-specific moves
• [45:09] Mike Santoli offers the midday market word
• [46:44] Panel gives final trades

Conclusion

The panel broadly urges caution, discipline, and patience. Long-term investors are encouraged to stick to quality, avoid knee-jerk reactions, and use volatility to add selectively to portfolios. Key risks include persistent energy price shocks, ongoing sector rotations (especially in tech and financials), and the emerging challenges in private credit and software. The mood remains defensive, but opportunities persist in pockets like infrastructure, select healthcare, and real assets.