Halftime Report (CNBC) | Episode Summary

Date: November 13, 2025
Episode Title: Is a Greater Rotation Coming?

Overview

This episode of CNBC's Halftime Report dives into the day’s market action, focusing on the ongoing weakness in the tech sector and the possibility of a greater rotation into other corners of the market. Host Scott Wapner leads a panel of investment professionals—including Josh Brown, Kerry Firestone, Bill Baruch, and Jenny Harrington—in a fast-paced analysis of sector performance, the potential market impact of the Fed’s December interest rate decision, and which stocks and sectors are emerging as new leaders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tech Sell-Off and the "ABC Market"

• Tech stocks are struggling: Tech continues to drag down the indexes due to rising interest rates, hawkish Fed commentary, and fading momentum post-earnings season.

• ABC Market ("Anything But Chips"): Investors are rotating out of semiconductor stocks and big tech, seeking value and performance in sectors that have lagged.

  • Josh Brown [01:36]:
    “Welcome to the ABC market—or 'anything but chips'…there are more questions [about AI Capex] than ever before…people are saying ‘I’ve made a lot of money in this trade…there are other things I want to do in my portfolio.’”

• Sector leadership shifts:

  • Energy: Now leads all sectors, with 100% of the sector above the 20-day moving average.
  • Financials: 80% above.
  • Health care: 74% above.
  • Tech: 32% above, highlighting the pullback.

2. Fed Rate Decision and Market Reactions

• Uncertainty over December rate cut: The market now prices in less than a 50/50 chance of a December cut, down from near certainty.

  • Scott Wapner [04:50]: "If we don't get a rate cut in December, we might go down 5%."
  • Kerry Firestone [04:57]: "I don't think the market is going to care that much. I think the market can go down 5% and then...be sort of comfortable with where we are."

• Why the cut matters:

  • The group widely agrees the reasons for any Fed move matter more than the cut itself.

  • A stronger economy holding off a cut is seen as ultimately bullish.

    • Jenny Harrington [07:56]:
      “I don’t think the actual rate cut matters at all...What matters is why. If the reason is the economy is doing perfectly well, then that’s great. I think that might actually be why we’re seeing this rotation today.”

• Small caps remain under pressure:

  • Small-cap stocks (Russell) are especially sensitive to rate cut expectations, with poor performance highlighted as an exception to the rotation trend.

3. Rotation Beneath the Surface

• Dow outpaces Nasdaq:

  • Over past three months, the Dow has pulled ahead of tech-heavy Nasdaq, illustrating a broadening out beneath index performance.

    • Josh Brown [10:27]:
      “The companies that are not directly tied to the ups and downs of the narrative around open AI are just doing way better…you can have like stocks that look at Berkshire today…gigantic financial…it’s just not $5 trillion.”

• Profitability and valuation matter again:

  • Investors are showing fresh preference for profitable, reasonably valued stocks (dividend, energy, staples, pharma) after a speculative tech run.

  • Jenny Harrington [07:56]:
    “At some point in the past couple of weeks, suddenly people started caring about profitability...and valuations.”

4. Health Care, Biotech & Financials Shine

• Health Care rebirth:

  • Strong earnings, sector rotation, and the prospect of AI-empowered pharma R&D drive renewed interest.

  • Names like Amgen, AbbVie, Regeneron drawing analyst upgrades and investor attention.

  • Kerry Firestone [13:36]:
    “There are four reasons why the health care and biotech stocks are going up...oversold for years, a place to go, catalyst from UNH, and decent earnings.”

  • Jenny Harrington [15:18]:
    “Bristol trades at 7 times earnings with a 5% dividend yield...Regeneron has one of the biggest drug pipelines...That’s where I want to be right now.”

• Financials join the rally:

  • Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley hit record highs. Robinhood noted as the S&P's best performer YTD.

  • Increased M&A and robust market environment discussed as catalysts.

  • Bill Baruch [17:55]:
    “Financials and health care, as things mature out of April—that’s where the rotation is taking place.”

  • Josh Brown [18:33]:
    “The best performing stock in The S&P 500 this year is Robinhood…Goldman is the second best performer in the Dow this year.”

5. The Tech Correction: Oracle, Nvidia & Burry’s Warning

• Nvidia’s pivotal moment looms:
  • Nvidia is down 8% this month. Earnings are next week and will be closely watched for AI sentiment.
• Oracle slides despite AI tailwinds.
• Michael Burry’s sharp critique:
  • He’s deregistered Scion and warns that hyperscalers are boosting earnings by "artificially" extending depreciation.
  • Promises more revelations soon.
  • Leslie Picker [20:05]:
    “Burry argues they’re extending the useful life of assets in a way that artificially boosts earnings…”

6. Spotlights: Individual Stock & Sector Picks (see Final Trades below)

• Cisco: Rewarded for steady cash flow and reasonable growth. Not the “excitement” of Nvidia, but stable.
  • Jenny Harrington [22:17]:
    "It’s never going to be one of the triples…but it’s what we want in our discipline growth strategy."
• Disney: Strong earnings and buybacks lost in a negative market reaction and streaming/content questions.
• Booking Holdings: Wedbush upgrades, but panel notes “rounding top” in travel names as comps get trickier.
• Verizon: Offers reliable, bond-like dividend, but breakout unlikely absent broader re-rating.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown [01:36]:
  “Welcome to the ABC market…People are just saying, you know what, I’ve made a lot of money in this trade. These stocks have gone up a lot this year...and there are other things that I want to do in my portfolio that aren’t directly tied to this trade.”

• Jenny Harrington [07:56]:
  “Suddenly people started caring about profitability and...valuations...what I have going for me? They’re all profitable, they all have low valuations.”

• Josh Brown [10:27]:
  “The most fascinating part about the rotation: it won’t show up when you look at the index level...it’s all happening beneath the surface.”

• Leslie Picker [20:05]:
  “Michael Burry has deregistered his hedge fund...and has been ramping up criticism of hyperscalers...he believes they’re understating depreciation by $176 billion over the next three years.”

• Jenny Harrington [31:15]:
  “As a portfolio manager, [these job cuts are] fantastic. That drops to the bottom line...but as a human…it might not be so economically great.”

• Josh Brown [32:38]:
  “If I did [buy Verizon 30 years ago], I would have underperformed the checking account.”

Important Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:48 | Market sell-off & Fed rate cut expectations | | 01:36 | Josh Brown on ABC Market, sector leadership shifts | | 03:08-09:54 | Panel debates December Fed cut, impact on "everything rally" | | 09:54 | Dow vs. Nasdaq, signs of rotation | | 12:10-17:29 | Health care/biotech rally, specific stock highlights | | 17:29-19:05 | Financial sector breakout, Robinhood/YTD surprises | | 19:05-22:17 | Oracle, Nvidia, tech sell-off, Michael Burry’s warnings | | 22:17-27:32 | Cisco, Disney, content value vs. market reaction | | 28:20-29:46 | Booking Holdings, travel sector outlooks | | 30:01-33:18 | Rocket Companies, Verizon, job cuts, dividend thesis | | 36:03-39:39 | Energy stocks (Exxon, Kinder Morgan), sector rationale | | 40:26-41:55 | Gold/mining sector picks | | 42:35-43:40 | Mike Santoli: Market breadth, rotation, Fed's centrality | | 43:55-44:32 | Final trades: Stock picks roundup |

Josh Brown's "Best Stocks in the Market" Spotlight [36:03]

• ExxonMobil (XOM):

  • Breaking out from a multi-year consolidation pattern.
  • Benefits from sector rotation, improving refining margins, and the LNG business.
  • Brown [36:03]:
    "ExxonMobil...now hitting the upper end of that range. $125 per share would be the real trigger."

• Panel echoes:

  • Baruch: "We own Exxon…it’s starting to wake up a bit…I see myself potentially leaning into this into the end of the year."
  • Harrington: "Energy will benefit far longer than [2026]. We need every bit of energy however it’s generated."
  • Baruch [39:24]: Also likes Kinder Morgan for its pipeline dominance in natural gas.

Sector Talks: Gold/Mining, Calls of the Day, and Final Trades

• Bill Baruch’s mining moves:

  • Adds Core Mining (after New Gold acquisition), Gold Royalty, Agnico Eagle, Kinross.
  • Sees further upside potential as precious metals rally.

• Final Trades:

  • Jenny Harrington: Kimberly-Clark – Oversold, 5% yield.
  • Bill Baruch: Thermo Fisher (TMO) – Driving healthcare move.
  • Kerry Firestone: Wabtech – Industrial rails, undervalued.
  • Josh Brown: Berkshire Hathaway – Rallying even during a red-tape day.

Conclusion

This episode underscores a major market inflection: Tech stocks are finally retreating, and a powerful rotation into energy, financials, and health care is accelerating. The panel sees optimistic opportunities, especially among “forgotten” value names, while questions swirl about the sustainability of the AI/tech rally, the significance of the Fed’s next move, and the potential for big surprises in gold and industrials in 2026.