Is the 'FOMO' Rally Here? 12/5/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Is the ‘FOMO’ Rally Here?
Date: December 5, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Investment Committee Panelists: Jenny Harrington, Jim Lebenthal, Kevin Simpson, Josh Brown

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Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report is centered on the concept of a “FOMO rally”—a market rally driven by investors’ “fear of missing out”—as the year draws to a close. With Wall Street analysts issuing bullish notes and seasonality typically favoring equities, the panel debates whether investors should be worried about an impending bubble, the health of the consumer, and how to position portfolios into 2026. Additional discussions cover key moves in Netflix and other notable stocks, as well as early chatter about the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s impact on U.S. soccer.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the FOMO Rally Here?

[01:01–03:16]

• Scott Wapner frames the discussion: Barclays and Bank of America (Hartnett note) both point to bullish sentiment, suggesting a “FOMO rally” is underway. Citi mentions AI-driven bubbles being profitable, staying long equities.
• Jim Lebenthal is very bullish through year-end, predicting a “Santa Claus rally”:

  “I think that actually makes more of a coiled spring that when we do get past that, it will leapfrog past the record… we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (02:04–03:16)

• Notable Insight: Positivity is driven by market consolidation, stimulative budget changes coming in 2026 (e.g., R&D and CapEx expensing), and historical seasonality.

2. Equity Allocations for 2026 – Rebalancing or Stay the Course?

[03:21–04:51]

• Jenny Harrington highlights the need to “change what you’ve got” inside an equity allocation, given divergent performance under the surface:

  “In aggregate, the market’s up 17%. In aggregate GDP showing nice growth. In aggregate, the consumer just spent 4.1% more on Black Friday than last year. But as soon as you disaggregate, it’s a very different picture underneath… Different set of underlying circumstances than going into ’25.” (03:21–04:51)

3. Mega-Caps vs. Diversification – Is the Rotation Coming?

[05:12–06:26]

• Josh Brown anticipates active managers will increase positions in mega-caps, particularly those off their highs (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Meta):

  “This is what they’ll do… If it’s not your strategy, I don’t recommend going and running out and trying to do that.” (05:12–06:26)

• Scott Wapner and Kevin Simpson weigh in on whether diversification (e.g., into healthcare, financials) will ever really take hold when the mega-cap earnings keep winning.

4. Key Catalysts for Year-End

[07:08–07:55]

• Kevin Simpson focuses on three year-end catalysts:
  1. The Fed decision (expected 25bps cut)
  2. Oracle earnings
  3. Jobs report
• Expects a Santa Claus rally, but notes Fed tone is crucial.

5. Rates, The Fed, and Bond Market Risks

[07:55–09:16]

• Wapner and Simpson analyze the Hartnett note’s counterintuitive thesis: that a dovish cut could spook bonds, raising long-term yields and hurting equities.

  "If things are too dovish...you may be too dovish in an environment where inflation is returning.” (08:30–08:56)

• Jenny Harrington expresses concern about underlying softness in labor markets despite strong consumer headlines, citing layoff data:

  “I just saw…1.1 million layoffs year to date. That’s more than since 2020. If they’re cutting because they’re really worrying about the labor market, that's a bad sign.” (09:16–09:43)

6. Consumer Health: K-Shaped Outcomes & Stock Selection

[09:43–12:17]

• Debate on whether the strong consumer data holds up beneath the surface. Harrington brings up McDonald’s CEO noting weakness at the low end.
• Example: Bath & Body Works (discretionary spending) vs. Best Buy (necessity electronics).

  “You could say I’m making an argument for mega-caps or for active stock picking.” (10:40–12:17)

• Scott Wapner: Argues this uncertainty pushes even more people toward mega-caps, where growth feels more assured.

7. Market Breadth & Non-Mega Cap Success

[13:05–13:43]

• Lebenthal: Points to non-mega cap winners: health care, financials, GM, and others, suggesting both strategies can work.

8. Labor Market Weakness: Macro Concerns

[13:43–15:09]

• Josh Brown:

  “Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff plans…1.17 million—that’s 54% higher than the same period a year earlier. Less hiring, more layoff plans.”

• Skepticism about consumer-dependent stocks like Best Buy in a weakening labor market.

9. Netflix & Warner Bros Discovery Merger Analysis

[16:33–21:35]

• Josh Brown sold 85% of his Netflix stake due to potential regulatory uncertainty and antitrust review:

  “I can’t sit for a year and watch this become a political football and tie up capital…Don’t be surprised that this takes over a year.” (16:33–17:57)

• Kevin Simpson disagrees, sees the acquisition as a strategic win akin to Disney buying Marvel or Star Wars:

  “I think it’s an amazing opportunity for this company to just take these franchises into a whole nother stratosphere.” (20:17–20:29)

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Notable Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal (on bubbles):
  “Bubbles, you have to inflate them before they pop. And guess what, we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (03:12–03:16)
• Kevin Simpson (on Netflix):
  “I think it’s a mistake [to sell]. I think I would be more of a buyer of the stock.” (20:32–20:45)
• Jenny Harrington (on portfolio positioning):
  “Maybe next year I get a 15% return in Best Buy and a 7% return in Apple.” (11:47–12:17)
• Josh Brown (on Ametek, stock of the day): “These stocks that are making components for industrial, for medical, for electricity generation, for power, aerospace and defense…underwent a once in a generation re-rating because of how important they are to all of this onshoring and the AI cap.” (34:25–36:31)

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10. Stock Moves & Sector Calls

[21:35–25:33, 27:39–31:02]

• Jenny Harrington: Microchip Technology and Teradyne – strong on inventory recovery and AI chip exposure, but valuation is now a concern for Teradyne.
• Kevin Simpson: Sold Honeywell (“no one cares about the stock…forced to move on” 23:44), bought more TJX (“continues to hit on every cylinder at all income levels” 24:23), and a new buy: Nu Holdings (Brazil Fintech, growth and international momentum).
• Stock Calls of the Day:
  • Shell: Jenny holds, loves the free cash flow (3.8% yield, 12x earnings, big buybacks; 27:59–28:54)
  • Unity: Kevin says “risky but exciting turnaround…tread lightly” (29:08–29:31)
  • Rocket: Josh is bullish after CEO conversation; sees potential as the top homebuying ecosystem (29:38–30:05)
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Jenny bullish, copper demand huge, best pure play (30:15–30:40)
  • DraftKings: Kevin believes prediction markets help but still prefers Robinhood (30:47–31:02)

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11. “Best Stocks in the Market”: Josh Brown’s List

[34:15–36:31]

• Spotlight: Ametek (AME) –

  “Margins are going higher each quarter. Because the things they make are more and more in demand. I think it breaks $200 after a year of consolidation.” (35:41–36:31)

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12. Macro/Market Sentiment: Mike Santoli’s Midday Word

[37:16–39:31]

• Market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed, not aggressively pricing in rate cuts.
• Strong materials/cyclicals performance suggests market is betting on “reflation before inflation” but warns bond market could still end it.
• Consensus: Near-term risk is a bond market move, not the Fed’s next cut per se.

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13. Special Segment: US Soccer & the 2026 FIFA World Cup

[40:03–43:29]

• Alex Sherman interviews US Soccer Federation leadership about using the 2026 World Cup to boost US men’s soccer, both at youth and elite levels.

  “Americans are dominant in almost every other sport. Why can’t they be dominant in men’s soccer if the resources and data are put into it?”

• Not likely to win in 2026, but working on long-term progress.

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14. Trade Alerts, Final Trades & Takeaways

[44:06–47:12]

• Josh Brown: New position in Adobe, seeing a contrarian opportunity after heavy selling despite good earnings; expects possible upside if downtrend snaps.

  “This is the original company to be a case study at Harvard for reinventing itself. Don’t be surprised if they reinvent themselves for the [AI] age.” (44:12–45:41)

• Jim Lebenthal: “Good on you” for buying Adobe, expects positive reaction next quarter.
• Final Trades:
  • Kevin Simpson: Nu Holdings (Brazil Fintech)
  • Josh Brown: ESX index (breaking out to year highs)
  • Jim Lebenthal: Vertex (strong momentum)
  • Jenny Harrington: Disney (content value rising via Warner Bros deal)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:01: FOMO Rally + Wall Street analyst notes
• 03:21: Portfolio strategy for 2026
• 05:12: Mega-caps vs. diversification
• 07:08: Year-end catalysts
• 08:30: Fed cut risk to stocks
• 09:16: Consumer & labor market health
• 16:33: Netflix moves
• 21:35: Microchip/Teradyne analysis
• 23:44: Honeywell/TJX/Nu Holdings trades
• 27:59: Stock calls (Shell, Unity, Rocket, Freeport-McMoRan, DraftKings)
• 34:15: Josh’s “Best Stocks” – Ametek
• 37:16: Mike Santoli market check
• 40:03: FIFA World Cup, US Soccer strategy
• 44:06: Josh enters Adobe
• 46:53: Final trades

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal: “Bubbles, you have to inflate them before they pop. And guess what, we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (03:12–03:16)
• Kevin Simpson: “I think it’s a mistake.” — on Josh selling Netflix (20:32–20:45)
• Jenny Harrington: “In aggregate things are great, but when you disaggregate it gets a lot trickier and it’s a lot harder to figure out what stocks to buy.” (10:16–10:31)
• Josh Brown (Ametek): “Look at this trend. My god.” (35:41)
• Wapner (about mega caps): “We may be sitting here yet again in the early part of the new year saying, hey, should we start diversifying away from the mega caps? … and money just starts to flood into that area yet again.” (06:26–06:56)

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Tone & Language

• Candid, conversational, and often playful, with panelists poking fun at themselves and each other on stock calls (“I know, but you sold it a long time ago and you’re worried about the tariffs.” — Wapner to Lebenthal, 12:26).
• Analytical but accessible: practical advice for both active managers and retail investors; repeated emphasis on nuance under the market surface.

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Summary Takeaway

With year-end markets at all-time highs and Wall Street firms projecting a strong finish, the Halftime Report panel largely expects a continued “FOMO rally”—but not without caveats. The strength of the consumer, future Fed moves, and whether the rally broadens from mega-caps to other stocks all loom large into 2026. Standout stock picks include Ametek, Adobe, Nu Holdings, Vertex, and Disney, with significant debate over Netflix’s big M&A move. The team remains vigilant about macro risks—especially interest rates and labor data—while generally optimistic for year-end and into the beginning of 2026.

Transcript

[Jenny Harrington]

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[Scott Wapner]

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[Jenny Harrington]

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I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

Carl thank you. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, a FOMO rally. One Wall street firm says it is upon us. We'll discuss and debate that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Jenny Harrington, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson and Josh Brown. Let's check the markets here on this Friday. We have a mixed picture, at least a Russell's red. Everything else is green. But as I said Barclays today. Farmer Jim seasonality the last two weeks of the year usually the best for equities. He FOMO is in full swing again. Michael Hartnett, bank of America today says investors are bullish risk on Trump Fed Gen Z puts tax tariff rate cuts the only thing that can stop Santa Claus rally is a dovish Fed cut causing a sell off in the long end. Citi today says no pain, no gain. They use the AI in both pain and gain in all caps. Talking about AI while we think we are in a bubble for equities, bubbles are initially quite profitable. We stay long equities. So there you go, there you have it.

[Jim Leventhal]

So in the short term to the end of the year. I totally agree, Scott. I do think you'll have a Santa Claus rally. I also think that the last week or two that it's been kind of, we've been kind of nudging up towards that record but haven't gotten to there yet. I think that actually makes more of a coiled spring that when we do get past that, it will leapfrog past the record you're only 50 points away.

[Scott Wapner]

Right.

[Jim Leventhal]

Like, we're not far away. But it just feels like every day it feels like, hey, we're almost ready to go for it, and it doesn't quite get there. I think that's a positive. I think that's a little mini consultant consolidation that sets us up for the springboard higher. There's also one thing on that long list of positives that I don't think I heard you say, which is the budget bill becomes very stimulative in 2026, both on the consumer side in terms of refunds coming in, no tax on tips, those things. But even more importantly on the corporate side with R and D expensing and CapEx expensing, I think that's very positive for the economy, for profits, and thus for the stock market overall. So I am positive. I'll say one last thing on the bubble question, because that word was used in there. Totally agree. I mean, bubbles, you have to, you have to inflate them before they pop.

[Scott Wapner]

And we have to inflate them to pop them.

[Josh Brown]

Yep.

[Jim Leventhal]

And guess what, we're pretty early in the inflation phase, so I'm not worried about it popping.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Jenny, how about you? I mean, three pretty positive notes as we head into the final stretch here.

[Jenny Harrington]

Yeah, so, so the questions I'm asking is do you want, let's say you have a portfolio and it's 80% stocks and 20% bonds, and you're going into 26, and you're thinking, okay, I'm going to leave that balance the same. My question becomes for 26, do you want that equity component to be the same as it was for 26 that it was in 25? If you were, if you were all large cap US growth, or let's say you even had a lot of international and international stocks are up 27% or so this year. Do you want to rebalance and do you want those to be the majority of your 80% equities or 70%, whatever you have going into next year? I think maybe you change your playbook within your equity allocation. So I'm not saying get out of the markets, get out of equities. I'm just saying maybe change what you've got. And the reason for that is because I look at this market, this economy, this consumer, as fantastic in aggregate. Right. In aggregate, the market's up 17%. In aggregate GDP showing nice growth. In aggregate, the consumer just spent 4.1% more on black Friday than they did last year. But as soon as you Disaggregate, it's a very different picture underneath. And so I think that different picture, it could, could change the dynamics in 26. I think if there is significant weakness in the consumer, it may start to bleed up. If it bleeds up, how does that change? If you look at GDP and you disaggregate it and take out that play, the rest of the economy is not in fantastic shape. How does that impact next year? So I think going into 26, there's a very different set of underlying circumstances than there were going into 25.

[Scott Wapner]

So, Josh, I feel like what you talked about the other day plays right into what Jenny's perspective right here today was this notion, as she says, her words change what you've got. You made the argument yesterday, as much as people want to say that or believe that, don't do that.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. So I think the, I think the mega caps, not just the Max 7, but generally speaking, I think that's going to be the way that active managers who this year, like most years in large number are trailing the benchmarks. I think that's the, that's the move that they're going to make. Doesn't mean that everyone watching the show needs to do the same thing. But I think they're going to look at some of the stocks that are mega cap and far off their highs and say, all right, maybe I didn't own enough. Apple made a new record high. Maybe I missed the rebound in Tesla from the summer. Maybe, maybe, maybe here's my opportunity. I got Microsoft in a drawdown. I got Nvidia off its highs, Broadcom off its highs. I got maybe an opportunity in amd. Look at meta, blah, blah, blah. This is the trade. Amazon offer ties. This is what they'll do. Look, if it's not your strategy, I don't recommend going and running out and trying to do that. Jenny's got her own strategy, so I don't think she and I disagree. All we're talking about, Judge, is how they're going to behave into year end. Every year we want for there to be a new story and every year it's the same old story. I just don't know what dislodges it this year.

[Scott Wapner]

Kev. I don't know. You know, we may be sitting here yet again in the early part of the, the new year saying, hey, should we start diversifying away from the mega caps? We believe in this broadening story. Hey, look at health care, look at financials, look at all these other areas that are expressing this broadening view of the market and then lo and behold the earnings continue to hold up for the hyperscalers. They actually are being able to prove their return on investment and then the money just starts to flood into that area yet again.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, and I think you're going to see a lot of that is window dressing into the end of the year. But we still have to get through the end of the year and it seems like we're wondering with respect to that, will there be a Santa Claus rally? Will there be a year end rally?

[Scott Wapner]

Do you think there will be? I mean the notes that I read you off the very top of the program suggest for a variety of reasons, seasonality and otherwise, that there will be.

[Kevin Simpson]

I do, I do agree with that. The three catalysts that I'm looking at between now and the end of the year, Scott, two of them are next week. The first is the Fed. Did they get give us the 25 basis point rate cut that we're factoring in? Yeah, probably. What's the tone of the meeting afterwards and the press conference and the setup for next year? You kind of expect rate cuts next year but it'll be a catalyst for the short term. The other is Oracle's earnings and we'll talk about that later show and we'll save that. And the final thing would be the jobs report which comes the following week. We would have gotten it today but it's a data point point that I think will set up the end of the year. So if we're looking between now and the end of the year for a Santa Claus rally, I agree with the notes and I think we'll get it.

[Scott Wapner]

I thought that the bank of America note today Hartnett idea of a dovish cut could be negative for stocks. That's a little counterintuitive because if you came in and you said well they could give you a hawkish cut and that would maybe cause the long end of the the curve rates to go up. He's implying that if it's a, a dovish cut that the market's going to get a little bit skittish on the long end about inflation and the long end could go up anyway and that could stop the rally. I haven't heard that perspective from people.

[Kevin Simpson]

I think you're going to get that either way. I just think the bond market's already flashing that. When you look at the bond market saying well rates went up a little bit just on the idea that we've come up with a new chairman for the Federal Reserve and that if things are too dovish if there's not a complete data dependency, that you may be too dovish in an environment where inflation is returning into the marketplace. So I agree with that note because.

[Scott Wapner]

There'S a means I do too. There's you look at the 10 year yield which is, has been going in really one direction. It's been backing up. The idea was okay, Fed's going to cut next week most likely if they're hawkish, well, okay, maybe rates back up more. But now if they're, if they're dovish, the bond market's going to have something to say about that.

[Jenny Harrington]

And that's what I've been thinking for a while now, which is that we all know rates come at cuts coming, right. We expect that. It's not so much about the cut that matters to the markets. Why, you know, why are they cutting? Are they cutting into strength or are they cutting into weakness? And that's where I get back to my comment earlier about where I'm starting to worry about the consumer. I just saw something yesterday saying there were 1.1 million layoffs year to date. That's more than there have been since 2020. If they're cutting because they're really worrying about the labor market, that's a bad sign.

[Scott Wapner]

No, but people have been, you know, maybe you and others talking about oh, I'm worried about the consumer and this, that and the other and then they go to Black Friday and they spend hand over fist.

[Jenny Harrington]

But that's the thing.

[Scott Wapner]

They spend spending and then somebody spending. And it's not just the top end either, by the way.

[Jenny Harrington]

It's a lot though. And you go back to that McDonald's CEO comment from three weeks ago or something where the McDonald's CEO said something like our hot and is McDonald's, our high end customer is fine. Our low end customer is something like 15 or 20% lower than it was last year. McDonald's is seeing weakness in the wasn't.

[Scott Wapner]

Sentiment, it wasn't consumer sentiment a move higher yesterday.

[Jenny Harrington]

This is where I get really, really flummoxed in trying to think about the market, which is in aggregate things are great, but when you disaggregate it gets a lot trickier and it's a lot harder to figure out, you know, what stocks to buy. So everything I'm looking at like you're just.

[Scott Wapner]

But no, but then you're making, if it's that hard to figure out what stocks to buy, you're making the case for why people are going to go buy the mega caps okay, that's exactly the point.

[Jenny Harrington]

Give you, let me just give you one really interesting example from yesterday. Yesterday. What shows up on my screen every, every week I run a screen and I say, show me what has a three above a three and a half percent yield. I've got Bed, Bath and Beyond. I'm sorry, not Bed, Bath and Beyond. Body Works. Bath and Body Works and Best Buy. Right. Those are two total totally different consumer bases. I think maybe I'm wrong, but I think, and to me the trouble with Bath and Body Works is that is purely discretionary. So if you're, if you're feeling it all pinched, you're likely to cut that you're less likely to cut, geez, my laptop just broke. I need a new laptop. So this is where it gets complicated. There's still opportunity. So you could say I'm making an argument for the Mega Cap or you could say I'm making an argument for active stock picking and saying I'm not just going to buy consumer discretionary, but I'm going to, I'm going to suss out which of those.

[Scott Wapner]

All I'm saying is you could sit there and have a debate with yourself for three hours over Bath and Body Works versus Best Buy and try and determine whether you're going to buy that stock. When the other person would say, you know what, I know where the pudding is being made in the in AI and the hyperscalers and I'm going to buy to Josh's point, the sell off in X or the sell off in Y or the sell off in Z.

[Jenny Harrington]

Or you could say Apple's trading at 30 times with like low, you know, low double digit, what is it, 9 to 11% growth ahead. Or maybe I could look at a bed Bath or. Sorry, I keep saying the wrong things, don't I? Best Buy, which has been totally thrown out, has a cheap yield, has a cheap valuation, a high yield, has, you know, bigger upside ahead because the stock is so crushed. So maybe next year I get a 15% return in Best Buy and a 7% return in Apple, you know, so you can start doing that kind of calculation.

[Jim Leventhal]

I think the internals of the market show that, that both aspects are right, that the Mega Cap is obviously working, but so are a lot of other non mega cap tech stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

I know you said this the other day. No, no, no, you said the same thing the other day and you named Delta and you name Wynn Resorts.

[Jim Leventhal]

You ready? I'm going to make you happy. I'm going to give you something you can really beat me up on, you know, what's done fabulously this year. No, no, hang on, Jenny. Is GM just as an example. It has nothing to do with.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, but you sold it like a long time ago and you're worried about the tariffs.

[Jim Leventhal]

Okay, I mean, as I said, I mean, I'm falling on my sword here. I didn't want to just ask Jenny a question. But hang on, let me just make the point and then you can do this. I mean, look at health care, look at financials. I mean, there are a lot of things. So both aspects of this can be right. It can be the stocks and it can be the RSP equal weight S&P 500.

[Josh Brown]

Josh, I am worried about the consumer and I think Jenny is right to mention that it's the thing that's holding everything up other than a capex boom. The capex boom is more delicate than we all think. If the consumer says that they are not prioritizing paying for all of these services that are being rolled out or OpenAI comes out with a price increase for the next iteration of chat GPT and people don't upgrade or any of these types of things, all of a sudden you're going to see everybody with a laser focus once again on the Fed, on the jobless numbers, etc.

[Scott Wapner]

Etc.

[Josh Brown]

And the bad news here is that this is a very different labor market than we had a year ago at this time when we were talking about the outlook for 25 challenger Gray and Christmas said layoff plans. It's 71,321 in November, which is not as bad as October, but still enough to bring the year total. This is the number Jenny was searching for to 1.17 million. And that's 54% higher. That's 54% higher than the same period a year earlier. So it's a different half a million planned hires, which is 35% lower in the priority. We have less hiring, we have more layoff plans. And so my question to to Jenny is why Best Buy in that if you're as worried as I am that that has the potential to get worse? We want to buy consumer electronics in the mall. That's what we want to do.

[Jenny Harrington]

So Josh, I was saying these are the things that I'm looking at and this is how that's weighing in. I'm not buying Best Buy and I didn't buy Best Buy because I think broadly the consumer could get even weaker. But when you're comparing Best Buy and A Bath and Body Works, you have two really Separate versions of consumer discretion that could come under pressure. So to answer your question, no to either of those in the end, but one is, I think, more compelling than the.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm also not in any. I'm not trying to make an argument in any way, shape or form that they're the consumer. A good cohort of the consumer complex is hurting. That's quite obvious. All I'm saying is that for every bit of worry about that over the last year, plus it hasn't materialized into the consumers. This or the consumer is that somehow there's been a resiliency that has been remarkable.

[Josh Brown]

K shape.

[Scott Wapner]

It's been surprising. It is, it is K shaped. But far longer than a year. It even is beyond. I think just, I think it's too simple to suggest, well, the high end is doing great and then the mid and the lower end are doing bad. Somehow by virtue of those numbers over Black Friday, it seemed to be more than just the high end that was holding up the letter of the Alphabet, if you will. Let's move because I want to talk about the stock of the day. By now you know 3,000 times over about Netflix and Warner Brothers. I want to tackle it simply from the Netflix perspective. I want to do it that way because Josh has made a move in that stock today which is meaningful. You told us you cut your Netflix holding after the announcement of this deal by 85%. Tell our viewers why. Because you've really liked this stock and I still do.

[Josh Brown]

But I can't sit for a year and watch this become a political football and tie up capital. So it's just a, it's just a portfolio management decision. I think there are going to be other opportunities that have more near term upside while this Netflix thing works its way through the, the meat grinder in Washington. I want, I want everyone to understand, I think Netflix right now represents a tremendous value, but I don't think the stock will be able to get out of its own way. The thing to keep in mind here is we don't know if an over the top bid comes. We don't know what Republicans are going to want to talk about as it pertains to this. We don't know what the Democrats will want to talk about. There's a lot of antitrust. There's a big antitrust contingent in both parties for different reasons. Then of course, there's the White House. This would be the second largest merger or acquisition in the post pandemic period worldwide other than Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific. The railroad tie up at 85 billion. You cannot tell me the Eye of Sauron is not going to see this thing happening and say what can we. What what does this mean for us? And keep in mind this is media, so it probably means something. I'm not telling you. They have to put the Apprentice back on the air or it's going to be something like that. But don't be surprised that this takes over a year. Produced by Baron, this could take over a year.

[Scott Wapner]

So look, I Celebrity Apprentice. That's going to be the remedy.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, right. I mean like Matt Maga. Maga Apprentice. So all I'm saying is I think Netflix is a great value. I think it's a great deal. I actually love the deal for them. Not only for them, but I love that they're keeping this out of the hands of somebody else. Equally important in the streaming wars. But I can't sit here so I kept a very small position on and we'll, we'll see what happens. Well, I will watch it for the next 12 to 18 months, see how this goes.

[Scott Wapner]

I thought some of the Kev, you have the stock too. I thought some of the notes from the street today about the strategic nature of the deal and how it's a departure for Netflix from how it has historically done things. Huber research says we've had an overweight for nearly the entire time over the last 10 years but are stepping aside. Netflix has been very successful the last 15 plus years developing its own content and has smartly stayed away from doing sizable deals. We do not see the need to change that. Baird weighs in today. Certainly a deviation from the company's historical approach and we understand the initial investor hesitation regarding the size of this deal and the potential closing integration process. But we suspect the long term benefits will ultimately outweigh the near term risks. Risks you as a shareholder have to be willing to sit for the long haul. You have to have a bigger vision. But the notion that this is historically different than what Netflix is used to doing, not unlike you might hear. If Apple was to make an acquisition of some scale larger than it's ever done before, you'd probably have similar notes.

[Kevin Simpson]

I hope we do see that from Apple, Scott, and I'm thrilled to see it from Netflix. I'm going to take the other side of this. I think it's incredibly wonderful to, to see them go on the offensive. This is a an IP play that if the deal were to go through, and I agree with all the notes and Josh's comments that the likelihood is pretty thin. I also think that we'll see a competitive bid from Paramount Skyworks to, excuse me, a hostile bid from them to keep this deal alive. But if it did happen, you kind of think of it like the Disney deal when they bought Star wars and when they bought Marvel. When you're talking about somebody of these franchises, Game of Thrones, the Sopranos, the DC Universe, Harry Potter, what Netflix can do.

I never saw it. I think it's an amazing opportunity for this company to, to just take these franchises into a whole nother stratosphere. So I'm excited about the deal. And what do you make of Josh's.

[Scott Wapner]

Move to sell 85% of his stock?

[Kevin Simpson]

I think it's a mistake. I think I would be more of a buyer of the stock. If the deal does get blown up, the stock will go higher. And plus the one difference between Josh and I is I can write covered calls against this. There's going to be heightened volatility now around this name, even more so.

[Scott Wapner]

But that's why, that's why he's bowing out in such a large way. He would agree with everything that you've said, I'm sure on the fundamental basis of this. Yeah, the stock itself, he obviously the company itself, the leadership likes all of it. But you're going to be in some level as well, in what he suggests is purgatory for the next 18 to 24 months while this whole thing plays out. And then who knows?

[Josh Brown]

You don't think it's in a box. You don't think it's in a box.

[Kevin Simpson]

Now it may not be accretive to the bottom line, Josh, for two or three years. I don't disagree with that. But I don't think the stock's going to sit here and just level off. And if it does for me, which is different than for you, I can still write premium against it. So it's less of a concern for me for a range bound stock. So I get what you're saying, but I would hate to be a seller at this point only to look back and say look what happened. Look how amazing this deal turned out to be.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's turn our attention to a couple of names that have done quite well for Jennie this week. There are a couple of chip stocks, Microchip Tech and Teradyne, since we're talking about things that are moving and stories that are in the news. Microchip today up 18%. It's the best week since April. Teradyne record high today. Shares were, were also up 14% last week. What's happening here? We do with these.

[Jenny Harrington]

So on microchip, first the stock dump, because they pronounced the December quarter bookings were strong through November backlog feeling was better expected into March. And so that's it. It was kind of oversold. I think both of these stocks going into this were, were fairly valued compared to their peers. And that's why I'm always focusing on valuation. So the long term thesis for, for us for microchip has been inventory recovery. And that's what happened. You might remember we actually didn't buy microchip, we bought the microchip preferred coming out of Liberation Day. And so that's what we still own. Still has a 6.3% yield and I think it's still a fair price. It's not wildly overvalued. On Terradyne. This one gets a little trickier. So we've owned this for a really long time. We've owned it since 2013 and we have like a 1200% return on it. So where we sit today is it's kind of gotten caught up in the trade and people are now looking at Tearadyne as you know, as part of the AI chip boom. And now. And so we've always, you know, this one's in our discipline growth strategy where there needs to be a 5% or better free cash flow yield to own it. This is down to 2.3% free cash flow yield trading at 39 times earnings. And so we're a little between a rock and a hard place where we're thinking, you know what, even with the AI boom, even with AI chips and that tear down plays a critical role in the AI chip production line. This is expensive. Does it still make sense for us? And we want to take some off the table, but we're three and a half weeks from year end. It's a huge capital gain. So we may, and we don't think there's any imminent risk. So we may trim. But that'll probably happen after year end. But we don't like the valuation anymore. Makes us nervous even though it's in the right space. And that's where you struggle with story and momentum versus valuation and cash flow yield.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's talk about some moves from you, Kev too, before we get out of here. You sold Honeywell. Well, why did you do that?

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, this isn't like a bear case for Honeywell. This is a stock that we bought for a breakup. If you go back and look at some of the other ones, famously General Electric obviously has been the most incredible divestiture with the spin offs, we thought that there would be a lot more attention to this company. We were essentially stopped out of the ticker, hon. They spun off Solstice. We sold that. The gem still in there. The aerospace materials, as I mentioned, came out first. Industrials are still in there, but no one cares about the stock. It's underperforming and sometimes the price action alone forces us to move away from the position.

[Scott Wapner]

We talked a lot about the consumer. Obviously earlier. You bought more tjx.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, I was smiling when you and Jenny were talking about the consumer and Black Friday. TJ Maxx is a company that just continues to hit on every cylinder. It's not just for the discount shopper. I mean, every single layer of the economic sphere goes into TJ Max to home goods. They don't have to deal with tariffs. It's both the trade down story as well as a story for the higher earners. So really, really like the way they're hitting on all cylinders.

[Scott Wapner]

You have a new buy as well. What's new holdings. And you. Is that the ticker and you?

[Kevin Simpson]

It is. So be careful following me into this one, folks. This is an aggressive stock. This is a Brazilian fit intech. This is in our growth strategy. This is also an ideal and international fund that we manage. It's up 70% on the year. But what we like about this is the reminiscence, the echoes of what we see with Robinhood and some of these other online companies that are benefiting from just this pure Latin American play. So Brazil alone, I think that the index is up like 50% year to date, but they're still 25 to 30% off of where they were pre pandemic 2019. So this is a $1617 stock. I like it. We're taking a flyer with it and I look forward to talking about it over time.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, you do that. We'll follow you on that. All right, we'll take a break. Coming up next, our top calls of the day. We do have a target hike for a big betting stock today. And later, Josh Brown's back. New edition of his best stocks in the market list. Halftime is back in two minutes.

[Josh Brown]

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[Scott Wapner]

Let's talk about some calls for the day. We start today with Shell got downgraded to neutral from BuyBank America. They believe the balance sheet strength remains underappreciated. That's one of the stories. However, we believe removing some execution risk discount will likely require a lower commodity price environment and correspondingly more amenable sellers.

[Jenny Harrington]

I think, yeah, I had a hard time figuring out why they actually downgraded it at first. But I guess what the gist of the downgrade is is saying that a lot of their earnings growth is going to come from acquisitions through M and A activity. And so with a lower oil price they can buy those, those companies much more cheaply and then that drives their earnings in the long run. So okay, fine. That's their opinion. They've moved it down to neutral. Here's where we see it. We're holding it. We love this company. They're a huge player in the LNG production space. But more importantly, the numbers are just there. They produce incredible amounts of free cash flow. And Here are the numbers. 3.8% dividend yield 15% free cash cash flow yield 12 times earnings increasing buybacks. They bought back 10% of their shares in the last couple of years. So if you think at around $5,859, oil is probably not going too much lower, which is what I think. Then it's probably a great time to get in. If you think oil is going to 40, hold off. If you think oil is going to 70, buy a lot now.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Kev Unity got upgraded to overweight at Wells Fargo today. On number one, favorable industry backdrop in 26 to direct exposure to the direct payments migration With Unity Commerce.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, I mean, this is a, this is a risky one also. I think they're coming out of the other side of a turnaround. I'm thrilled to see Wells Fargo upgrade it. They've got to deliver. We'll have to watch the next two earnings report to see if they can. There was a lot of problems at this firm when, when we purchased it. We think that they're coming out. 3D gaming is something that's pretty cool and exciting. The Commerce side of it also very impressive. But I would tread lightly on this as well.

[Scott Wapner]

Rocket reiterated top pick, 25 bucks at BTIG. That's a pretty big upside from here. Josh Brown.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. Stock's going to go. I had a conversation with the CEO Varun. He knows exactly what he's doing. Building the first integrated, complete end to end funnel for the homebuyer. Every step on the journey from financing to the transaction to the servicing itself, all of that will be done by one company. That company will be Rocket. They've invested big while the housing market's been frozen. And as that thaws out, they're going to reap the rewards.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, it looks like that stock's moving a little bit. Freeport, Mac Moran. The Target goes to 58. Reiterated it's overweight at JP Morgan.

[Jenny Harrington]

Right. So we own this one. And copper is up 36% year to date. Freeport's up about 20%. They had this huge mudslide which was pretty negative for business. But again, where you look at it Today, you've got 16 times earnings, 8% free cash flow yield. And we all know that copper is in enormous demand. Everything, everything. Solar, wind, I like. All of that requires copper. So there's endless demand here. And Freeport's one of the best pure play ways to have that exposure.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, DraftKings, that's the one we teased earlier. Target goes to 45. BTIG says buy it.

[Kevin Simpson]

I'll be thrilled if it goes to 40, let alone 42 and 45. Yeah, you know, the prediction markets really messed up what was happening with these online companies. And now DraftKings and Flutter are both getting into prediction markets. So I think it helps them. But I still like Robinhood better than both of them.

[Scott Wapner]

Bertha Coombs has the headlines for us. Hi, Bertha.

[Jenny Harrington]

Hi, Scott. The CDC advisory committee, handpicked by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Voted today to roll back a decades long recommendation for all newborns to get a first dose of the Hepatitis b vaccine within 24 hours of birth. The committee says women who test negative for the disease, may decide with their health care provider whether to vaccinate or wait until the baby is at least two months old. In a statement, hep V vaccine maker Merck says it is deeply concerned by the decision, adding it, quote, disregards decades of safety and effectiveness. The acting CDC director will now decide whether to adopt the guidance. An International Criminal Court prosecutor says the court's arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be erased by U S led Ukraine peace talks. The ICC says a United Nations Security Council resolution is needed to suspend the warrants over alleged war atrocities. And a Vatican commission voted against allowing Catholic women to serve as deacons. The clergy members whose duties include baptizing people and witnessing marriages. The commission said historical research and theological investigation, quote, excludes the possibility of allowing women to serve in the role at this time.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott Bertha thank you. Bertha Coombs. Up next, Josh Brown. He has his best stocks in the market list. It's ready to go. I'll tell you what's on it next.

[Josh Brown]

Let's do it.

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[Scott Wapner]

It is that time the best stocks in the market list. The spotlight shining brightly today on AME, better known as Josh Ametek.

[Josh Brown]

This is a 95 year old company founded in Pennsylvania in 1930. Came public in 1984. Stock has been wrestling with this 200 level since November of 2024. It's been a full year of digestion. If you pull this chart back, please do this for me, Ben. Let me see 10 years. I want to show people the long term trend and then we'll come back to this because it's really important. These stocks that are making components for industrial, for medical, for electricity generation, for power, aerospace and defense, there's probably like 50 of these things running around and very few people know them by name. They haven't been popular stocks but they have all undergone a once in a generation re rating because of how important they are to all of this onshoring activity and the AI cap. Look at this. Look at this trend. My God. All right, now give me the moving averages. So once upon a time this summer in June, I brought a stock to the air called Amphenol. Best stock in the market. I like it was 93. We said it's breaking out. People said, Josh, this stock was just 50. Why are you talking about the 93?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, shut up.

[Josh Brown]

Because it went to 145. Because the market is not that stupid. And when they take stocks to record highs and they break out, there's often a fundamental driver. In the case of Amphenol, it was massive earnings growth. In the case of Ametech, this is a company that's expanding margins like crazy. Like crazy. Every quarter margins are going higher. Why? Because the things they make are more and more in demand. So I like this name right here. I think it breaks 200 finally after a year of consolidation. As far as downside, I think 180 to 182 is a reasonable stop. That's both the rising 200 day moving average and the the bottom of the prior gap from the last time. They reported no earnings till February. All we have is in front of us is trend.

[Scott Wapner]

That is passion, ladies and gentlemen. Josh, Passion.

[Josh Brown]

I'm very good at this.

[Scott Wapner]

Been on the list since October 30, 2025. Came public in 1984. One of the most important players in some of today's fastest growing industries. As Josh said. Thank you very much. We will see what this stock does and you know, we'll track it from here as we always do. Santoli is next with his MIDDAY Word.

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now. This Midday Word. This market has a little bit of, well, let's wait for the Fed next week and see what they say and then decide what we want to do.

[Jenny Harrington]

It does feel that way. Also kind of a neat and tidy two weeks round trip. Exactly. Pretty much, you know, or at least since we made the recovery two weeks to the day, 5% up, it feels as if, you know, the economic numbers today, noteworthy, they help set the baseline for what we're looking for. But the market did not find any reason to swing around on them. And that probably does say this is an eye of the beholder economy and the Fed's going to kind of help out with that next week. What they think the biggest risks are. I do think the stakes aren't super high because we haven't gone ahead and priced in really aggressive easing after next week. So you don't have to have the Fed chair come out and say, hey, get off that spot.

[Scott Wapner]

What is, what do you make though of the, of the Hartnett note.

[Jenny Harrington]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

That we mentioned at the top of the program today? Going in, you're like, well, if it's a hawkish cut, yes. Back end backs up a little bit further. And he suggests no, even if it's a dovish cut, you could get the same phenomenon, which would be negative for stocks ultimately.

[Jenny Harrington]

At some level. I agree it's negative for stocks. We don't know what the threshold is for how much yields have to blow.

[Josh Brown]

Out on the long end.

[Jim Leventhal]

What.

[Jenny Harrington]

You know, I'm also partial to the notion of reflation before inflation or before accelerating inflation. And the market's telling you that with the material stocks and you know, some of the cyclicals that have been working really well, it does seem as if they're positioning for better nominal growth next year. We'll see if we get it. We also positioned for that at the end of last year and it got interrupted. So I do think that for now the equity markets looking on the bright side of that equation, which is we are going to get a release higher in growth based on policy. Now, whether the bond market puts an end to that, that's what we have to remember.

[Scott Wapner]

The what was it, I don't know, 10 days ago, not even probably where the asset name was first floated in that news piece and you saw a bunch of different assets move in different directions. We went to 399. Sure on the 10 year at that moment because we were doing it on this program and Here we are 15 basis points higher than that.

[Jenny Harrington]

And I think we're within the like 20 basis points on tens before people say, okay, now it's starting to get real. 4:30 ish or so.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you on closing belt. That's Michael Santoli, our senior markets commentator. Coming up, one of next year's most highly anticipated sporting events, the FIFA World cup drawing, is actually underway in Washington right now. And Alex Sherman, he's following U.S. soccer's big moment.

[Josh Brown]

He'll join us next.

[Jenny Harrington]

We're back.

[Scott Wapner]

2026 FIFA World cup draw underway this hour at the Kennedy center in Washington. Our Alex Sherman joins us now with a look at how American soccer plans to deliver on the global stage. Alex?

[Alex Sherman]

Yeah, look, US Men's soccer is probably not going to win this year's World cup. They are an 80 to 1 shot. But that doesn't mean that the US Soccer Federation doesn't think that the men's team can compete in future World Cups. The US Men's team has never won the World Cup. The closest it's come is 1930 when it finished in third place. But I spoke to both the U.S. soccer Federation CEO J.T. batson and its president, Sidney Parlo Cohn about how the men's team can compete in future years and also what this year's World cup being in the United States means for soccer going forward. Take a listen to what Sidney Parlo Cohn told me on the World cup being a domestic event this year.

[Scott Wapner]

Benefit.

[Jenny Harrington]

All levels of soccer, both boys and girls.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll see an increase in participation at every level.

[Jenny Harrington]

So our role at U.S. soccer is to make sure that this World cup impacts not just the cities that are hosting it, but touches every city in the continental US Plus Alaska and Hawaii.

[Scott Wapner]

To make sure that they are seeing.

[Jenny Harrington]

It, are inspired by that, and then use that momentum to transfer them into playing the sport, refereeing, coaching or just becoming lifelong fans.

[Alex Sherman]

So the U.S. soccer Federation has what they're calling a pathway strategy to get U.S. men's soccer to compete for World Cups every single tournament every four years, realizing that the United States has not competed with the biggest soccer countries out there in South America and Europe historically. But look, the US has over 350 million people in this country. It is Americans are dominant in almost every other sport. Why can't they be dominant in men's soccer if the resources and the data are put into it? That is their perspective. And so now they have a defined plan to put in a lot of time and a lot of money to both train their players from a youth age, as you just heard Parlo Cohn talk about all the way through competitive age in World Cups.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, not to mention that the results of late, by the way, have been pretty good within the last month or so or a couple months for U.S. soccer, which has a new coach now and they're feeling pretty good about themselves coming into the tournament this summer.

[Alex Sherman]

They are certainly headed in the right direction. And look, I think no one, everybody has their eyes open that this is probably not going to be a one year, a four year fix. But if you can start to get momentum. That's what CEO J.T. batson talked to me about at this U.S. soccer Federation event last week or earlier this week. Excuse me, that look, all they're looking for here is, is, is progress. And so this World cup is very much going to be defined by how much progress can that US Men's team meet. Then maybe as you start to look forward into the future World Cups, you can really thinking about, you know, potentially even winning one. Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's go out and make some noises. Summer for certain. Alex. Thanks. Alex Sherman, by the way, coming up today on closing bell, I hope you'll catch my interview with Alex lasri. He's the CEO of the FIFA World Cup 2026 New York, New Jersey Host Committee. So we'll talk more locally and in New York. Exactly what is going to take place during the summer's World Cup. Coming up, the high and low altitude stocks on the rise. This week we'll highlight some of the committee names that are big winners. Next.

We have a trade alert to tell you about. Josh Brown, tell us what you just did.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, so I, I'm in Adobe now. It's a, it's a small trade. I think the stock can recover back to 400. I've been tracking this thing the whole way down. I was looking at it during the course of this week. I understand all the bear arguments about how everyone's going to throw out their creative licenses and just outsource visual effects, etc. To open AI. I just don't believe it. I don't actually guess what's going to happen. They had a good earnings report. Stock's been in a relentless downtrend, down 55% from its high. And what I'm looking at having typically here is a name that sort of wants to snap that downtrend potentially. So I don't know if it will happen. I Do have a stop loss here. There's not an endless leash. But if it does snap its downtrend finally after a year of horrible performance, I feel like the recovery here could be fairly swift. One thing worth pointing out, and I think it's really important, this is the original company to be a case of study at Harvard for reinventing itself. In 2014 they went 100% subscription and became a SaaS giant. It's still studied to this day. The boldness that Adobe had to make that transformation. Now it seems obvious everybody should be software as a service. This is a company that's got that in its lineage. Don't be surprised if they reinvent themselves for the age. It's 14 times forward earnings. Earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

Jimmy, you got a friend. I know you needed a friend.

[Jim Leventhal]

I didn't expect this, Josh, but good on you. It's a brave move. Look, here's what I'm going to say about. You just laid it. All right. Thank you, brother. You just laid out, you know, what's been, what's been ailing the stock. The concerns that AI is going to eat its lunch and kill its customer base. But you know, this is a stock that has outperformed on earnings quarter after quarter for years. And if you look at the last three quarters, the negative price movement after good earnings has become less and less. I know it's a terrible thing to say, but look, this is the truth. 3/4 ago, great earnings, it goes down 14%. 2/4 ago, great earnings, it goes down 5% 1/4 go great earnings, it's basically flat. I think that means we're going to get great earnings and it goes up. So Josh, good on you. I'll talk to you next week.

[Scott Wapner]

You got to be so happy now that I.

[Jim Leventhal]

Unexpected, I mean unexpected.

[Scott Wapner]

It just include at least include Johnson. We'll do finals next.

3 o' clock Eastern closing bell. We're going to close out the week with Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School. So I hope you'll join me for that interview coming up in a couple hours time. Kevin Simpson, what's your final trade?

[Kevin Simpson]

I'm going to go with new holdings. Scott, massively underbanked opportunity. Great Fintech and Latin Latin America, strong earnings growth.

[Josh Brown]

Josh Brown, your final ESX breaking out to a new year high. Raise the roof.

[Jim Leventhal]

The good farmer vertex, good momentum building here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Jenny, what you got?

[Jenny Harrington]

Disney. The Warner Brothers deal shows the value of content should increase. Disney.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, okay, that's interesting. Thank you very much. I'll see you on the closing bell. Coming up, three o' clock Eastern time right now. I'll send it back to HQ.

You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Jenny Harrington]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement.

[Scott Wapner]

To make a particular investment or or.

[Jenny Harrington]

Follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer this ad.

[Josh Brown]

Is only 15 seconds. In that amount of time, there are likely to be an average of over 15,000 cyber threats to all businesses, so there's no time to wait. Get threat ready with Commc Business at comcastbusiness. Com Cybersecurity.