CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Is the ‘FOMO’ Rally Here?
Date: December 5, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Investment Committee Panelists: Jenny Harrington, Jim Lebenthal, Kevin Simpson, Josh Brown

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report is centered on the concept of a “FOMO rally”—a market rally driven by investors’ “fear of missing out”—as the year draws to a close. With Wall Street analysts issuing bullish notes and seasonality typically favoring equities, the panel debates whether investors should be worried about an impending bubble, the health of the consumer, and how to position portfolios into 2026. Additional discussions cover key moves in Netflix and other notable stocks, as well as early chatter about the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s impact on U.S. soccer.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the FOMO Rally Here?

[01:01–03:16]

• Scott Wapner frames the discussion: Barclays and Bank of America (Hartnett note) both point to bullish sentiment, suggesting a “FOMO rally” is underway. Citi mentions AI-driven bubbles being profitable, staying long equities.
• Jim Lebenthal is very bullish through year-end, predicting a “Santa Claus rally”:

  “I think that actually makes more of a coiled spring that when we do get past that, it will leapfrog past the record… we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (02:04–03:16)

• Notable Insight: Positivity is driven by market consolidation, stimulative budget changes coming in 2026 (e.g., R&D and CapEx expensing), and historical seasonality.

2. Equity Allocations for 2026 – Rebalancing or Stay the Course?

[03:21–04:51]

• Jenny Harrington highlights the need to “change what you’ve got” inside an equity allocation, given divergent performance under the surface:

  “In aggregate, the market’s up 17%. In aggregate GDP showing nice growth. In aggregate, the consumer just spent 4.1% more on Black Friday than last year. But as soon as you disaggregate, it’s a very different picture underneath… Different set of underlying circumstances than going into ’25.” (03:21–04:51)

3. Mega-Caps vs. Diversification – Is the Rotation Coming?

[05:12–06:26]

• Josh Brown anticipates active managers will increase positions in mega-caps, particularly those off their highs (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Meta):

  “This is what they’ll do… If it’s not your strategy, I don’t recommend going and running out and trying to do that.” (05:12–06:26)

• Scott Wapner and Kevin Simpson weigh in on whether diversification (e.g., into healthcare, financials) will ever really take hold when the mega-cap earnings keep winning.

4. Key Catalysts for Year-End

[07:08–07:55]

• Kevin Simpson focuses on three year-end catalysts:
  1. The Fed decision (expected 25bps cut)
  2. Oracle earnings
  3. Jobs report
• Expects a Santa Claus rally, but notes Fed tone is crucial.

5. Rates, The Fed, and Bond Market Risks

[07:55–09:16]

• Wapner and Simpson analyze the Hartnett note’s counterintuitive thesis: that a dovish cut could spook bonds, raising long-term yields and hurting equities.

  "If things are too dovish...you may be too dovish in an environment where inflation is returning.” (08:30–08:56)

• Jenny Harrington expresses concern about underlying softness in labor markets despite strong consumer headlines, citing layoff data:

  “I just saw…1.1 million layoffs year to date. That’s more than since 2020. If they’re cutting because they’re really worrying about the labor market, that's a bad sign.” (09:16–09:43)

6. Consumer Health: K-Shaped Outcomes & Stock Selection

[09:43–12:17]

• Debate on whether the strong consumer data holds up beneath the surface. Harrington brings up McDonald’s CEO noting weakness at the low end.
• Example: Bath & Body Works (discretionary spending) vs. Best Buy (necessity electronics).

  “You could say I’m making an argument for mega-caps or for active stock picking.” (10:40–12:17)

• Scott Wapner: Argues this uncertainty pushes even more people toward mega-caps, where growth feels more assured.

7. Market Breadth & Non-Mega Cap Success

[13:05–13:43]

• Lebenthal: Points to non-mega cap winners: health care, financials, GM, and others, suggesting both strategies can work.

8. Labor Market Weakness: Macro Concerns

[13:43–15:09]

• Josh Brown:

  “Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff plans…1.17 million—that’s 54% higher than the same period a year earlier. Less hiring, more layoff plans.”

• Skepticism about consumer-dependent stocks like Best Buy in a weakening labor market.

9. Netflix & Warner Bros Discovery Merger Analysis

[16:33–21:35]

• Josh Brown sold 85% of his Netflix stake due to potential regulatory uncertainty and antitrust review:

  “I can’t sit for a year and watch this become a political football and tie up capital…Don’t be surprised that this takes over a year.” (16:33–17:57)

• Kevin Simpson disagrees, sees the acquisition as a strategic win akin to Disney buying Marvel or Star Wars:

  “I think it’s an amazing opportunity for this company to just take these franchises into a whole nother stratosphere.” (20:17–20:29)

Notable Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal (on bubbles):
  “Bubbles, you have to inflate them before they pop. And guess what, we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (03:12–03:16)
• Kevin Simpson (on Netflix):
  “I think it’s a mistake [to sell]. I think I would be more of a buyer of the stock.” (20:32–20:45)
• Jenny Harrington (on portfolio positioning):
  “Maybe next year I get a 15% return in Best Buy and a 7% return in Apple.” (11:47–12:17)
• Josh Brown (on Ametek, stock of the day): “These stocks that are making components for industrial, for medical, for electricity generation, for power, aerospace and defense…underwent a once in a generation re-rating because of how important they are to all of this onshoring and the AI cap.” (34:25–36:31)

10. Stock Moves & Sector Calls

[21:35–25:33, 27:39–31:02]

• Jenny Harrington: Microchip Technology and Teradyne – strong on inventory recovery and AI chip exposure, but valuation is now a concern for Teradyne.
• Kevin Simpson: Sold Honeywell (“no one cares about the stock…forced to move on” 23:44), bought more TJX (“continues to hit on every cylinder at all income levels” 24:23), and a new buy: Nu Holdings (Brazil Fintech, growth and international momentum).
• Stock Calls of the Day:
  • Shell: Jenny holds, loves the free cash flow (3.8% yield, 12x earnings, big buybacks; 27:59–28:54)
  • Unity: Kevin says “risky but exciting turnaround…tread lightly” (29:08–29:31)
  • Rocket: Josh is bullish after CEO conversation; sees potential as the top homebuying ecosystem (29:38–30:05)
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Jenny bullish, copper demand huge, best pure play (30:15–30:40)
  • DraftKings: Kevin believes prediction markets help but still prefers Robinhood (30:47–31:02)

11. “Best Stocks in the Market”: Josh Brown’s List

[34:15–36:31]

• Spotlight: Ametek (AME) –

  “Margins are going higher each quarter. Because the things they make are more and more in demand. I think it breaks $200 after a year of consolidation.” (35:41–36:31)

12. Macro/Market Sentiment: Mike Santoli’s Midday Word

[37:16–39:31]

• Market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed, not aggressively pricing in rate cuts.
• Strong materials/cyclicals performance suggests market is betting on “reflation before inflation” but warns bond market could still end it.
• Consensus: Near-term risk is a bond market move, not the Fed’s next cut per se.

13. Special Segment: US Soccer & the 2026 FIFA World Cup

[40:03–43:29]

• Alex Sherman interviews US Soccer Federation leadership about using the 2026 World Cup to boost US men’s soccer, both at youth and elite levels.

  “Americans are dominant in almost every other sport. Why can’t they be dominant in men’s soccer if the resources and data are put into it?”

• Not likely to win in 2026, but working on long-term progress.

14. Trade Alerts, Final Trades & Takeaways

[44:06–47:12]

• Josh Brown: New position in Adobe, seeing a contrarian opportunity after heavy selling despite good earnings; expects possible upside if downtrend snaps.

  “This is the original company to be a case study at Harvard for reinventing itself. Don’t be surprised if they reinvent themselves for the [AI] age.” (44:12–45:41)

• Jim Lebenthal: “Good on you” for buying Adobe, expects positive reaction next quarter.
• Final Trades:
  • Kevin Simpson: Nu Holdings (Brazil Fintech)
  • Josh Brown: ESX index (breaking out to year highs)
  • Jim Lebenthal: Vertex (strong momentum)
  • Jenny Harrington: Disney (content value rising via Warner Bros deal)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:01: FOMO Rally + Wall Street analyst notes
• 03:21: Portfolio strategy for 2026
• 05:12: Mega-caps vs. diversification
• 07:08: Year-end catalysts
• 08:30: Fed cut risk to stocks
• 09:16: Consumer & labor market health
• 16:33: Netflix moves
• 21:35: Microchip/Teradyne analysis
• 23:44: Honeywell/TJX/Nu Holdings trades
• 27:59: Stock calls (Shell, Unity, Rocket, Freeport-McMoRan, DraftKings)
• 34:15: Josh’s “Best Stocks” – Ametek
• 37:16: Mike Santoli market check
• 40:03: FIFA World Cup, US Soccer strategy
• 44:06: Josh enters Adobe
• 46:53: Final trades

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal: “Bubbles, you have to inflate them before they pop. And guess what, we’re pretty early in the inflation phase, so I’m not worried about it popping.” (03:12–03:16)
• Kevin Simpson: “I think it’s a mistake.” — on Josh selling Netflix (20:32–20:45)
• Jenny Harrington: “In aggregate things are great, but when you disaggregate it gets a lot trickier and it’s a lot harder to figure out what stocks to buy.” (10:16–10:31)
• Josh Brown (Ametek): “Look at this trend. My god.” (35:41)
• Wapner (about mega caps): “We may be sitting here yet again in the early part of the new year saying, hey, should we start diversifying away from the mega caps? … and money just starts to flood into that area yet again.” (06:26–06:56)

Tone & Language

• Candid, conversational, and often playful, with panelists poking fun at themselves and each other on stock calls (“I know, but you sold it a long time ago and you’re worried about the tariffs.” — Wapner to Lebenthal, 12:26).
• Analytical but accessible: practical advice for both active managers and retail investors; repeated emphasis on nuance under the market surface.

Summary Takeaway

With year-end markets at all-time highs and Wall Street firms projecting a strong finish, the Halftime Report panel largely expects a continued “FOMO rally”—but not without caveats. The strength of the consumer, future Fed moves, and whether the rally broadens from mega-caps to other stocks all loom large into 2026. Standout stock picks include Ametek, Adobe, Nu Holdings, Vertex, and Disney, with significant debate over Netflix’s big M&A move. The team remains vigilant about macro risks—especially interest rates and labor data—while generally optimistic for year-end and into the beginning of 2026.