Is the Rally on Solid Ground? 11/4/25

Summary

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CNBC Halftime Report – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is the Rally on Solid Ground?
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jim Lebenthal
Correspondents: Emily Wilkins, Mike Santoli

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Overview

This episode focuses on whether the ongoing stock market rally is robust or precarious. With stocks broadly retreating and big market-moving names like Palantir and Oracle getting attention, the panel assesses technical signals, earnings reactions, valuation debates, and sector rotations. The conversation also addresses major individual stocks—Palantir, NVIDIA, Uber, Vertex, and casino stocks—while weaving in context from breaking news in Washington and global markets.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Check: Is the Rally Shaky or Solid?

• Current State:
  • Markets are down across the board; Dow falling 100+ points, S&P off 0.75%, NASDAQ down more than 1% ([01:09]).
  • Despite a weak premarket, stocks opened above those lows.
• Jim Lebenthal:
  • "Any dip, no matter how small or inconsequential, is likely to be bought from here to year end." ([01:54])
  • Attributes buying to institutional investors lagging benchmarks, seeking to catch up as year-end approaches.
  • Warns against making aggressive short-term predictions, but sees strong buying on dips as a prevailing pattern.

2. Correction Warnings and Valuation Concerns

• Joe Terranova:
  • Notes warnings from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs' CEOs about potential market corrections ([03:07]).
  • Points out 100+ trading days have passed without a 5% correction, so one is "healthy and normal."
  • "Today is about valuation…valuation is the impediment." ([03:54])
  • Sectors like healthcare are rallying as high-valuation sectors get repriced.

3. Under-the-Surface Weakness and Market Breadth

• Josh Brown:
  • "We're actually undergoing a market-wide correction right now. The reason why people don't know is because it hasn't hit the mag7 names." ([05:07])
  • Stats:
    • 31% of S&P 500 components are >20% below 52-week highs.
    • 62% of S&P 500 below their 50-day moving average ([05:07]).
  • He describes this as necessary and healthy: "They wick that enthusiasm off the top and reset and I think it’s good." ([06:40])
• Oracle as a Case Study:
  • "This thing just filled the entire gap… This is what healthy bull markets do." ([06:40])

4. Stock Spotlight: Palantir’s Earnings, Valuation, and Volatility

• Q3 Earnings Reaction:
  • “Palantir really hit the ball out of the park…but the only challenge is how to value Palantir and how much of its growth is already priced in.” – Emily Wilkins ([09:21])
  • Palantir trades at 83x projected 2026 sales – considered “extreme” by Jefferies.
• CEO Alex Karp’s Colorful Commentary:
  • “They thought Palantir was overvalued at 10. They thought it was overvalued at 20… Find a company…with US commercial growing at 121%...aggregate growth in the US is 77%.” – Alex Karp (quoted at [10:04])
  • Karp blasts Michael Burry (of "Big Short" fame), who disclosed puts against Palantir, saying: “The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is crazy.” ([10:28])
• Panel’s Take:
  • Joe Terranova:
    • “Valuation was the impediment…85 times sales, 200 plus times earnings.” ([11:19])
    • Momentum got him into the stock, momentum will get him out. “The momentum has remained in place in this stock and I don’t know where we’re going to exit.” ([11:55])
  • Josh Brown:
    • “Nobody’s denying any of that…The entirety of the debate is: how much growth have investors already pulled forward into the valuation?” ([14:11])
    • Suggests CEO Karp is overly defensive; the business fundamentals are widely admired.
    • “A more Buffett-esque response would be, ‘We take care of the business, the share price will take care of itself.’” ([15:15])
  • Jim Lebenthal:
    • “The problem is, I can’t take investors’ hard-earned money and put it to work at 200 times earnings…” ([17:09])
    • Warns that shorting via puts (like Burry is doing) carries high risk and patience that the average investor lacks: “There is a cost to puts…The average investor can’t wait that long.” ([17:54])
  • Josh Brown on Michael Burry:
    • “He’s willing to be public with his positions. Maybe it’s interesting to some market participants, but if you think he’s your financial adviser, dude, you’re losing perspective.” ([18:34])

5. Valuation-Led Rotations and Sector Moves

• Semiconductors:
  • Jefferies replaces NVIDIA with Broadcom as top pick; AMD reporting after the bell ([21:14]).
  • Joe Terranova: Valuation “is a little bit high” for AMD, raising the bar for earnings ([21:23]).
  • Josh Brown: Expects profit-taking even on good numbers: “Stocks go down on good news sometimes. That’s not a signal that something’s wrong.” ([22:49])
• Earnings Drift/Expectations Management:
  • Investor reactions often more about expectations and recent run-ups than results themselves ([23:42]).

6. Washington Watch: Government Shutdown Update

• Emily Wilkins:
  • Senate once again fails to pass a government funding stopgap ([25:13]).
  • Bipartisan talks gaining momentum, but “nothing is final yet.”

7. Earnings Movers: Uber and Vertex

• Uber:
  • Despite robust profitability and tech innovation, shares fall post-earnings.
  • Josh Brown: “This is a company that’s reported another incredible quarter…they are literally crushing it.” ([28:12])
  • Joe Terranova: Cites “one-time legal charge” and a “risk off” day; otherwise, Uber remains fundamentally strong ([30:01]).
• Vertex:
  • Initially dipped despite a “beat-and-raise” quarter.
  • Jim Lebenthal: “I think there is a much greater runway ahead for how Journavax will be prescribed…” ([31:13])
  • Praises Vertex’s cystic fibrosis franchise and pipeline.

8. Commodity Trades: Gold and Miners

• Josh Brown’s Top Picks:
  • Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti, Southern Copper—all strong stocks now pulling back, creating buying opportunities for those who missed earlier runs ([34:36]).
  • Notes pullbacks are “what healthy bull markets do.”
• Joe Terranova:
  • Agrees gold’s correction isn’t over but offers long-term entry; cites US dollar rally and possible signs that some exuberance has come out ([37:20]).

9. Casino and Consumer Discretionary Stocks

• Las Vegas Sands:
  • Joe Terranova: Adds LVS to the Jyoti ETF for the first time, citing strong momentum and quality metrics ([39:12]).
• Wynn Resorts:
  • Jim Lebenthal: Prefers Wynn for its undervalued Las Vegas exposure and future Dubai resort ([40:08]).
  • Both see upside in casino plays, albeit for different fundamental/structural reasons.
• Cruise Stocks:
  • Joe Terranova: Momentum “broken down” in cruise lines, symptomatic of broader consumer discretionary weakness ([41:16]).

10. Mike Santoli’s Midday Word: The “Narrowness” Problem

• Notes an accumulation of “small divergences and excesses” leading to greater volatility.
• "You are getting a bid in value, low volatility, and pure defense today."
• Cautions that the AI/mag7 theme’s inability to “marshal the defenses” intensifies rotation risk ([42:33]).

11. Notable Earnings Update: Spotify

• Joe Terranova:
  • “This is a 2025 VIP name… The response to this report is not good… You have to exert discipline here over the next several days.” ([44:54])
  • Warns on ad revenue shortfall and technical weakness.

12. Final Trades

• Joe Terranova: Insulet (health care) – “Health care looks pretty good right here.” ([45:26])
• Josh Brown: Stays long Uber. ([45:36])
• Jim Lebenthal: Apollo Global Management – “A very good report today from Apollo...one that I think in years to come is going to come along.” ([45:39])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jim Lebenthal:
  "Any dip, no matter how small and inconsequential, is likely to be bought from here to year end." ([01:54])

• Josh Brown:
  "The reason why people don't know [about the correction] is because it hasn't hit the mag7 names, but that's literally what's taking place." ([05:07])

• Alex Karp (via Emily Wilkins):
  "Find a company in the world that has a rule of 114, that has U.S. commercial growing at 121%...that aggregate growth in the U.S. is 77%." ([10:13])

• Josh Brown:
  "A more Buffett-esque response would be, we take care of the business, the share price will take care of itself." ([15:15])

• Jim Lebenthal (on shorting/puts):
  "The average investor can't wait that long. That's why shorting, or in this case, buying puts, is awfully dangerous for a stock that's growing earnings per share at 50%." ([17:54])

• Josh Brown (on following pros like Burry):
  "If you think he's your financial adviser, dude, you're losing perspective." ([18:34])

• Josh Brown (on earnings expectations):
  "Stocks go down on good news sometimes. That's not a signal that something's wrong." ([22:49])

• Mike Santoli:
  "The narrowness of this phase of the rally and the slippage in the rotation...there is this acute sensitivity to this idea that if we don't have the AI story working, then you maybe have to crack a little bit." ([42:33])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:01] – Episode Opening and Market Check
• [01:54] – Lebenthal on dip-buying and institutional chasing into year-end
• [03:07] – Correction warnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and discussion of valuations
• [05:07] – Josh Brown on "under-the-surface" market corrections
• [09:21] – Palantir earnings and valuation debate
• [10:04] – Alex Karp's defense of Palantir's growth and valuation metrics
• [14:11] – Josh Brown: "Nobody's denying [Palantir's metrics]...it's about how much growth is already priced in"
• [17:09] – Jim Lebenthal on why most investors shouldn’t chase high-valuation growth stocks
• [18:34] – Josh Brown on dangers of following high-profile traders
• [21:14] – Semiconductor sector update—NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD
• [22:49] – Josh Brown: "Stocks go down on good news sometimes..."
• [25:13] – Emily Wilkins live from Washington with shutdown update
• [28:12] – Josh Brown and Joe Terranova break down Uber’s quarter
• [31:13] – Jim Lebenthal’s bullish case for Vertex
• [34:36] – Josh Brown’s best stocks in the market (gold and mining theme)
• [39:12] – Joe Terranova adds Las Vegas Sands to ETF; panel debates casino stocks
• [41:16] – Cruise stocks and consumer discretionary weakness
• [42:33] – Mike Santoli’s midday market take on breadth and sensitivity
• [44:54] – Spotify’s earnings reaction and warning from Joe Terranova
• [45:26] – Final trades (Insulet, Uber, Apollo)

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Tone and Style

The tone of the episode is energetic, analytical, and occasionally combative—especially around debates on valuation versus momentum, and following big-name investors. The panel is candid, with members often poking fun at each other’s strategies (momentum vs fundamentals), and quick to emphasize discipline in volatile markets.

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This episode offers a comprehensive, real-time look at emerging market risks beneath the surface of headline gains, ongoing rotation, and the tension between valuation and momentum as year-end approaches. Listeners come away with nuanced takes on high-profile stocks, sector shifts, and the psychological drivers of market behavior.

Transcript

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[Frank Holland]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're.

[Joe Terranova]

Listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast.

[Frank Holland]

The most profitable hour of the trading day.

[Joe Terranova]

We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

[Frank Holland]

All right, thank you, Sarah and Carl. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for Scott Wapner front and center at this hour. Is the rally, is it on solid ground or is it on shaky ground? We're seeing some signs of ags, air exhaustion and much more under the surface. That weakness dragging down stocks today. The investment committee is standing by to break it all down. Joining me for this hour, we do have Josh Brown, Joe Terranova and Jim Leventhal. Before we get this conversation started, let's start with a quick check on the markets. You can see we're in the red across the board. The Dow down more than 100 points. The S&P pulling back about three quarters of 1%. The NASDAQ down over 1%. The Russell down just about three quarters or 1%. And that's where you begin. Jim, you're right here at post 9 with me at the Open. We saw stocks, they kind of moved up from what the levels that we saw at in the pre market. In your mind, what does that symbolize? The fact that we're looking really weak in the pre market. Then we, we open up, we're still lower, but not as low as we were.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jim Lebenthal]

I mean, let me not bury the lead here, Frank. It says to me that any dip, no matter how small and inconsequential, is likely to be bought from here to year end. I don't justify that. I don't attach morality to that. I simply make the observation market participants with really a minimal amount of experience would have looked at today's futures action when they woke up and said, oh boy, here we go, you know, buckle your seatbelts and you know, the s and P500 opens up, goes down about 1% and then stabilizes where we are here, down about 710 of a percent. Now I have no idea Frank, how it's going to end up. Could trail off at the end, sure, probably. But the simple truth is there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. And the history of the past few months has, has shown that dips like this are an impetus for money to come in. Whether that's retail investors seeing the opportunity, yoloing, whatever you want to call it, or what I think is the more potent force, it's institutional investors, many of whom 75% of whom are behind their benchmarks and, and look at an opportunity like today as a chance to get in and do a Hail Mary pass to catch up. Look, I don't want to throw caution to the wind by making short term projections, but I do feel we're seeing that dips are going to be bought from here until year end.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Joe Tenerife, I want to come over to you. Earlier this morning in Hong Kong we heard from the CEOs of Morgan Stanley, also the CEO of Goldman Sachs, both of them saying we could be on the way for a market correction. Do you think that's what drove some of the action in the pre market? Is that, is that what's driving the action right now in the regular session.

[Joe Terranova]

Breaking news that we potentially could have a correction after having over 100 trading days without a 5% sustained correction. I think we've all been talking at length over the last several weeks about the possibility as the calendar turns into 2026, you get elevated volatility and you ultimately Get a sustained 5% correction. Pick your reasoning. You could, you could cite valuations, you could, you could cite the possibility that maybe I spend is getting a little uncomfortable place in terms of leverage, whatever.

[Jim Lebenthal]

The reason might be.

[Joe Terranova]

But it's healthy that you get that correction. Ultimately. I still think the secular tailwinds that are in place, ranging from global central banks who are cutting rates to economic growth, it's going to benefit from some fiscal tailwinds and regulatory relief inflation coming down. I think all those secular tailwinds are still in place. So really I think what today is about is about valuation. And I responded yesterday to you when we were talking about Palantir and my first words were valuation is the impediment. And I think today valuation is in the headlines. It's front and center because of a lot of the commentary that we heard from the CEOs. And I think markets are paying heed to valuation and they're probably right rightful to do so. Today you're seeing health care is rallying, you're seeing cryptos coming off. That all makes sense to me. If we're going to say, okay, valuations look a little bit extreme, we need to offer some relief there.

[Frank Holland]

Josh, coming over to you, what do you make of today's action? Does this signify a broader trend or a change in momentum or an inflection point or is it simply just one day?

[Josh Brown]

No, it's more than one day. But I, I don't look at this as a bad thing. We're actually undergoing a market wide correction right now. The reason why people don't know it is because it hasn't hit the mag7 names, but that's literally what's taking place. I want you to understand, beneath the surface, 31% of the S&P 500 components are more than 20% below 52 week highs. So this is not, this rally is not as broad as it was throughout most of the fall. And that's perfectly fine. Quite frankly, six and a half percent of constituents of the S&P are at 52 week lows today. Right now that's growing. That was probably 4% two weeks ago. Median RSI across the entire S&P44, that sound like a bull market to you? Me either. The median percentage below 52 week highs is 15%. So what I'm telling you is that the typical stock, not the average, but the typical stock, is already in its own correction. 62% of the S&P 500 are below a 50 day. So we do not have this across the board rally that we were enjoying for most of September and October. But I want to point out this is what you want to happen. If you want to stay constructive and you want to set up for, for a year end run, you've got to see some of the excess come out of the market and you've got to see companies get sort of sorted out and repriced after running up into their earnings. And that is literally what's taking place. Can I please have a chart of Oracle? This thing just filled the entire gap. So all that, all that good news about they're signing AI deals with planet Jupiter and Mars and in video and open air. Forget it, Forget it. It's come. I don't know, you guys show me a five day chart. I'm trying to show the gap being wiped out. This is what healthy bull markets do. They, they wick that enthusiasm off the top and reset and I think it's good. I think this is what you should Want, if you want to stay constructive here.

[Frank Holland]

Yeah, I mean, I think even to a certain extent. Josh, kind of point out your point. We're showing the one week chart of Oracle down about 10%. Jimmy, I know you want to make one other quick comment and we're going to move on.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Well, sorry, I mean the or, I'm an Oracle shareholder, so I'm aware of what Josh is pointing out and it makes me think that's front of mind for me right now. You know, Oracle is down from 345 after earnings to whatever it is right now. I'm not going to look at the stream to 52, whatever. And whenever you have a downdraft like this, whether it's Oracle, whether it's Meta, there is some reason, I mean remember in video going from 160 to 90 in January and the reason was deep seek. But look at where it is now. And my point on this is you have two choices with Oracle. You can either believe OpenAI is going to come through with all of the things that it has announced and promised, or you can believe that it isn't. The answer to that question is not going to be known for probably another two years. And in the meantime, what's really weighing on Oracle and on Metta is this debt question of why are they financing things with debt? And I've been saying this for the last week, Frank, you've heard it. I'm going to say it again. The reason they are financing this with debt is because if you're the Ellisons or whomever and you're in the C suite and you're looking at this and saying I've got a 250 stock, or a week ago, a $280 stock, I can finance these data centers by issuing stock that I think a year from now would be 350 and give up a 25% gain, or I can go to the debt markets where they're willing to lend me money at 5 to 6% depending on the maturity. Hmm, I wonder what I'll do. And the reason they're able to borrow at 5 to 6% maturity is because of the cash flows that they already have. Sure, there's questions about how low or how high those cash flows are on these data centers, but the fact of the matter is they're positive and that's what's paying off the debt. So really, to me this is kind of a no brainer. Again, as I've said many times, corporate finance one to one.

[Frank Holland]

All right, we're into the broader trend just a minute. But right now we want to kind of dig into one of the names really leading to the downside today. Of course, that's Palantir pulling back despite a strong earnings report and strong forward guidance. Our seeming Modi joins us now with much more and also some colorful comments from Alix Karp today right here on cnbc.

[Emily Wilkins]

That's exactly right, Frank. Palantir really hit the ball of the park with Q3 earnings. That's the view from a majority of sell side analysts that cover the stock. The only challenge is how to value Palantir and how much of its growth is already priced into the stock. Jefferies writing that the numbers are great. Valuation is quote extreme at 83 times 2026 sales. Cantor Fitzgerald writing that we continue to be impressed by its products, business model execution, our neutral ratings only informed by relative valuation, adding that Palantir trades at about five times higher versus other names in the infrastructure software sector. CEO Alex Karp joined cnbc. Here's what he had to say about valuation.

[Jim Lebenthal]

They thought Palantir was overvalued at 10. They thought it was overvalued at 20. I'm not even here saying what the valuation is.

[Joe Terranova]

I'm just saying find a company in.

[Jim Lebenthal]

The world that has a rule of.

[Josh Brown]

114 that has US commercial growing at.

[Jim Lebenthal]

121%, that aggregate growth in the US is 77%.

[Joe Terranova]

That is throwing off free cash flow in a way that's anonymous and that.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Is fully aligned with our customers.

[Emily Wilkins]

Karp also blasted Big Short, famed investor Michael Burry of Scion who revealed in a filing last night that he's shorting Palantir and Nvidia, to which Karp said, quote, the idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is crazy. Going forward, investors will be watching government revenue growth for Palantir, which did decelerate slightly from 53 to 52% quarter on quarter. Jefferies analysts add that the ongoing government shutdown likely lowers the number of new contracts getting done.

[Frank Holland]

Frank, RCM Modi with the very latest on Palantir. Those shares one of the biggest drags on the S and P right now. Joe, I want to come over to you. You're a Palantir shareholder in the Jyoti etf. What do you make of the reaction in the stock after very strong earnings? I do want to point out there was also a warning on a Korean exchange about SK Hynix that seemed to spook the markets. In addition to those comments from the Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs CEO but what do you make of this reaction?

[Joe Terranova]

Valuation was the impediment. I said it yesterday 85 times sales, 200 plus times earnings. And apparently this morning the marketplace is paying attention to that. Now if there's something embedded in the earnings report for you to be particularly troubled by, I mentioned yesterday that I thought the international expansion was very favorable. Well, to hear Alex Karp say that growth is being held down by a stagnant Europe, okay, that's somewhat troubling. But I think overall you have to look at this from the perspective of how do you think about positioning here? And unfortunately, in fantasy land, it's very easy to say, okay, I'm going to make money being long, or guess what, I'm going to make money being short. I think probably what's in front of you is that both sides are going to be disappointed, both the longs and the shorts. If you have the ability to be really fast in markets and go in there and you know, take a short position. I think the, the High yesterday was 207. That's the all time high. If you think this stock could fall 15016 okay, great. Congratulations. Congratulations. You probably should be managing a hedge fund, but that's very difficult to do if you're thinking about selling short on the premise that this stock is going to go back down to 40 or $30. The fundamentals just aren't there to suggest it. So look, we entered this stock in January of 24 at $16. Frank. We have an 1100% gain in it. And the reason that we entered the stock had nothing to do with me being a genius in analyzing the balance sheet fundamentals. It had to do with momentum. And I'll be very candid about that. And the momentum has remained in place in this stock and I don't know where we're going to exit. I never anticipated we're going to have an 1100% gain. I don't know, maybe the gain is going to be hopefully 400% or 500% by the time we're out of the stock. But momentum guided us in and momentum's guide us out. And I'm going to be very clear about that. And I think ultimately when you're looking at positioning in this stock, you have to understand that this might be entering a period where it's going to disappoint everyone and move in a sideways pattern after these earnings report.

[Frank Holland]

You know, Joe, I want to come over to you. You're saying if you're looking for something to nitpick, it with some of the stagnation in Europe. But you look at the US commercial business up 121% year over year, operating margin expanding quite a bit. It was over 50% this quarter, 34% a year ago. Doesn't that really overshadow some stagnation, I guess, over in Europe? I mean, the fact that commercial customers are adopting and we know that Palantir has been one of the better performers using their boot camps to, to drive adoption. I actually talked to a number of companies that use their software. They seem to not only understand ontology, but just the use of this software. And a lot of them say it helps you expand margins. Which is supposed to be one of the.

[Josh Brown]

Nobody saying, nobody's, nobody's denying any of that. There's not one person, there's not one person looking at Palantir saying anything about, like, the health of the business. Joe is exactly right. The entirety of the debate is how much have investors, how much growth have investors already pulled forward into the valuation that they're currently paying. Like, like this company is obviously on fire. And it's actually kind of weird to me how defensive Alex Karp seems to be because people who are real investors in the AI space lionize him personally and worship this company's execution. Like, I don't, I don't know of anyone in the AI world that's like Palantir, no big deal. People are losing their minds over how well this company is doing. What he's worried about is, I guess a couple of people come on TV here and there and they're bearish on Palantir because of the, just because of the stock price and the valuation. And he seems to be really fixated on that. But it doesn't make sense to me because they're killing it every. Frank, all those metrics and I have 50 more in front of me. No other company, to his point, no other company is executing at the level that they are in this space. And I guess like a more Buffett esque response would be, we take care of the business. The share price will take care of itself. Especially considering he said he has $880 million still on the buyback. Wouldn't you want the stock to come in if that. Unless you're issuing stock, I don't even understand why you would want a higher and higher and higher valuation. You're buying stock back. Let people be bearish. Let people sell it.

[Joe Terranova]

Frank, if I could make one other point.

[Frank Holland]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

That I've learned over over many decades is when you have an Individual equity name like this, that becomes a battleground stock that becomes so prominent in the headlines. It doesn't mean if you don't have a position, you have to engage, you have to take a position. In fact, it means the opposite. It actually is a signal to step away from and let the marketplace do what it needs to do. Let the marketplace maybe work off some of the extreme valuation. Let those strong fundamentals, which I agree with that Josh is citing, come into play. But that happens over the course of time and you don't need to race ahead of time and establish a position just because everyone's talking so much about it. That's detrimental behavior.

[Frank Holland]

Yeah. By the way, while we're talking about positioning, Michael Burry has been on Twitter since some of these earlier reports come out. He seems to be saying he's not shorting the stock. He has puts almost $1 billion worth of puts. He kind of put out some funny tweets about that. So I think a lot of people have been saying shorting, including Alex Karp, but it's puts about a billion dollars. He also seemed to reference the 13 Fs perhaps being backwards looking. So, Jim, I want to come over to you with that in mind.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Yeah. I think I felt kind of like Joe and Josh were talking to me as a typical investor who's not in Palantir. And I thank you guys. Damn you, Jim. But Josh, I mean, you get, you get. You know what I'm about to say, right? First off, Mr. Karp and Mr. Burry both have eloquent points and they both might be right. It's a question of timing for somebody in my shoes who doesn't own it. The problem is I can't take investors hard earned money and put it to work at 200 times earnings on the fear that it goes down to 120 times earnings. And those investors turn to me and say, well, why did you buy it at the price you bought it? And I don't have a good reason other than momentum, which has worked very well for you, Joe, and I compliment you continuously on it. It works for you. It is your style. But I do want to address something. You know, I just said that both, both Mr. Karp and Mr. Burry can be right. The thing about Mr. Burry that viewers need to understand, he is so well practiced in waiting, far more so than the average viewer and the average short investor is used to. So he's out here saying, yeah, I'm just buying puts. There is a cost to puts. And you know, those puts expire and then you have to decide to re up them. Mr. Burry, as I said, has an exquisite track record. And there's a great movie, the Big Short, in which, you know, this is on display of waiting. The average investor can't wait that long. And that's why shorting, or in this case, buying puts, is awfully dangerous for a stock that's growing earnings per share at 50%.

[Josh Brown]

Burry is also very. Burry is also very responsible. He tells people, I'm not your financial adviser. Don't follow me into trades. Yeah, he look, as a lot of people, there's a lot of people who get personal satisfaction out of being very publicly right. And tweeting out a position and just saying, watch this and not saying, come do this with me. And I like that. Michael Burry comes out and says, guys, this is not a game that you should be playing with me, but I still want to tell you what I'm doing. He also says, he, look, he's been wrong like everyone else on earth and he says I was wrong. He said, he said, go to cash. In the middle of last year, right before, like one of the biggest phases of this bull run. I think he had puts on Nvidia in January that he was talking like, it doesn't always work out. He's willing to be public with his positions. Maybe it's interesting to some market participants, but if you think he's your financial adviser, dude, you're losing perspective. It's just a guy doing his own trades. And I respect him for, for keeping himself honest. I think I also respect him even more for warning people this is not a game for everybody to be playing.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Josh, since you say you respect Dr. Burry very much, you mentioned his puts on Nvidia back in January. He actually put some puts on Nvidia this time around as well. According to 13Apps. Not clear on Twitter if he's trying to dispute whether that's his current position or not. What do you make of that? The idea that he's also basically, it really seems like he's putting puts on the big moneymakers in the economy, both in video and Palantir, dude, you won't know what you.

[Josh Brown]

It might work great. Like if we get a, if we get a super fast S and P Correction because the Mag 7 start to come in with all the rest of the market, which I think is sort of what's in progress right now. That position could look incredible. But long term investors would look at it like, wait, the Stock came down 20 points after going up 100 points, who cares? So there's room for multiple people to be right on different time frames. The other thing to keep in mind with 13 apps, here's how it actually works. The quarter comes to a close and the filers have up to 45 days to disclose what they did during the course of that quarter. So intra quarter people could be in and out of positions and not even have to report them at all. So once again, no one's going to tell you I bought this and here's the exact time I'm selling it. So like, it's really, really difficult to try to follow a professional and do exactly what they're doing. And I really don't think most people should even be attempting to do so.

[Frank Holland]

All right, speaking of right or wrong, Joe, want to come over to you. Also in Nvidia shareholder Broadcom name, the new top semis pick at Jefferies is actually replacing Nvidia.

[Joe Terranova]

It is. And you have two names that you need to focus on here over the next 30 days, one of it obviously being Broadcom. It is captured a significant amount of market share along with Nvidia. The other name that is of interest is amd. And AMD is going to be reporting earnings with. After reporting earnings this evening, after having a remarkably strong October, the month of October, the stock was up 50, 58%. It hasn't done that well over 20 years. So evaluation is going to matter once again. And again, valuation is not how, that's not the lens of which I look through markets. But there are others that do that and there are cycles that we go through in markets where markets prioritize that type of strategy. And I think what Josh said earlier in the show, I think we are at an inflection point where the market is now looking through the lens of okay, what's your valuation? So you look at AMD and you say to yourself, okay, wait a second, they're really going to have to prove themselves this evening. They're really going to have to show that the business, the revenue is strong with the big four. The big four run somewhere around mid teens for their growth and that obviously being Amazon, Metta, Alphabet and Microsoft. But the valuation is a little bit high here. If you look at the forward P, you're talking about getting into the upper 30s for AMD and you might be a little bit uncomfortable with that relative to where they've been the last several years.

[Josh Brown]

So stock, stock is up. Stock is up 25% in the last month. They'll report earnings. It'll be an amazing quarter. It'll fall 5%. And the websites will write headlines like, AMD Disappoints Investors. It's like. It's so moronic. It almost. It. It almost obviates our need to discuss it. Stocks go down on good news sometimes. That's not a signal that something's wrong. You have to have the context of. Look at this chart.

[Frank Holland]

Imagine for a second we're looking at the chart. I know you say stocks go down. Yeah, true. I know you say stocks go down sometimes, but we saw Metta go down quite significantly. Some people think it was that surprise charge. Other people think think it's too much spending. Now we're seeing Palantir. If AMD follows this trend, when is it. Or is also seeing that same pattern play out? When does that become a trend? That is a signal of something.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, so 10,000 years ago, a tidal wave would come up and wash away a village. And the people would say, oh, that's because Poseidon is angry because so and so didn't sacrifice a white ram on his. On his birthday. This is what human beings do. We try to ascribe some meaning to some phenomenon that is not obvious. We try to come up with the story for why Metta has. I don't know, has it tripled in the last 18 months? So, like, look, earnings season forces us into this kind of narrative mode because human beings get very uncomfortable when there's no rhyme or reason for things that take place. We don't like randomness, and we look for answers. And I'm part of that. I'm on TV doing this. I don't know how long has been 15 years. So I get it. I'm not. I'm not divorced from this. But I'm just telling you, a lot of times there are great expectations built into a stock like Palantir. The company delivers. And the people who have benefited on the way up, they say to themselves, okay, that was great, but I'm not adding here, I'm taking some profit. It would be a mistake to go a step further and say Palantir disappointed investors with its guidance. It's just not the case. Okay, Sometimes, not always.

[Frank Holland]

Okay, fair enough. Palantir shares pulling back more than 7% right now. We do want to turn to D.C. with some breaking news. Let's get to our Emily Wilkins live down in Washington. Emily, what's the latest?

[Emily Wilkins]

So the Senate has once again voted and once again failed to pass a stopgap that would have reopened the government. It's a very interesting split screen right now in D.C. because this is the 14th time that they voted on the stopgap that would fund the government only until November 21st. Meanwhile, I just spoke with a number of senators. There are an increased number of bipartisan talks underway trying to find a path forward to reopen the government. It would be some sort of agreement that would include long term funding bills for fiscal year 2026, along with a promised vote on those Affordable Care act tax credits. Nothing is final yet though, but the atmosphere in the halls of Congress is that they are a little bit closer to potentially getting a deal done and that there's momentum here that we just haven't seen seen in previous weeks. Back to you, Emily.

[Frank Holland]

Welcome to the very latest on the happenings in D.C. emily, thank you very much. All right. Coming up next on halftime, more of the day's biggest earnings movers. We'll start with the big pullback in Uber shares. And later, Josh Brown's back with his best stocks in the market after I'm back in just two minutes.

[Jim Lebenthal]

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[Frank Holland]

And welcome back to Halftime. Let's get to some stocks that are on the move. Uber falling despite beating revenue estimates. Josh and Joe, you both Own it. Josh, you want to go first on this one?

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, look, this is a company that's reported another incredible quarter. Profitability is growing. They, they've announced tons of stuff like deals with in video for autonomous. This will probably be the biggest platform for autonomous rides over the next two to three years as they roll out all of these various partnerships that they're working on. And I think that they have successfully made the point that the cross pollination between eats and rides is what really sets this business apart and what gives them innings and innings and innings left of converting more and more users to Uber 1 subscribers or to people who use both platforms. And that's been the story behind the stock. So it's up 60% on the year going into the earnings. Everything we just said in the A block now applies to these names in the B block. They come out, they report a great number, people see some profit taking and they say up. Uber must have disappointed. Nobody who's an actual investor here is disappointed. They are literally crushing it.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Josh says it's all about irrationalness. Joe, coming over to you. I am looking the valuation on uber almost 30 times. Is that an issue here?

[Josh Brown]

No. 15 times forward earnings. It's the cheapest. Find me another. How about this? Costco sells for 50 times earnings right now. Find me another $200 billion market cap company growing 20% as far as the eye can see into the Future, selling at 15 times forward earnings. Find me one.

[Frank Holland]

Josh, I'm just going by our system. Our System says almost 30, by the way. I didn't know you answered to Joe. I was going over to Joe with this. I think I played golf together. But now you guys answer each other's names. Joe, I'm coming over to you on this one. Josh says 15 times our says, not 30 times.

[Josh Brown]

Are you looking at trailing Ford?

[Frank Holland]

Looking at Ford.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, so let's just go back for one second. Costco is getting punished by the way on that extreme valuation. Costco has not been trading well. We've been talking about that. You have a legal charge here for Q3 that 8 into earnings. I think the street is looking at that. And in an environment today where it's clearly risk off, you have crypto under pressure and all the high beta names. You're going to see that Uber is going to be punished in that regard. I don't think it's being punished significantly. I still think the stock fundamentally is in a great place. The free cash flow expansion to me has been the real story over the last several years. And the reason why I personally bought it a long time ago, gross bookings were strong once again. And gross bookings coming up for Q4 should be strong as well. Q4 is generally their strongest quarter. So again, I don't see anything to suggest that there's headwinds in the fundamentals other than the state of the market today and being punished for that one time charge.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Uber shares pulling back more than 6%. Moving on to Vertex, bouncing back for some earlier losses. Jim, you own this one.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Yeah. First the headlines. I mean, it was a beaten raise. I think the reason it was down earlier today was some concerns that they didn't raise enough. I think that's really missing the point. Maybe, you know, if we talk about the stock price over the last year. It's been choppy. It's been choppy. And while it's up on the year to date about 7%, that choppiness has mainly been due to this new pain drug that's come out called Journavax. It's a non addictive, non opioid painkiller. It's approved and there have been puts and takes about what indications it has been approved for and might be approved for. But ultimately, ultimately, this is where I think the market is getting it wrong. I think there is a much greater Runway ahead for how journey backs will be prescribed than what the market is anticipating. And at 21 times forward earnings, I know this is the, this is the valuation show today. I do find that is forgiving for a company that not only has Journavax, but has a core franchise in cystic fibrosis to which there really is no competition and has on the horizon kidney medications coming up. So I really like this stock.

[Frank Holland]

All right. Vertex shares up just over a half a percent. Time now for some headlines. We have our Courtney Reagan. Courtney, good afternoon.

[Emily Wilkins]

Hi, Frank. Stellantis is recalling more than 320,000 Jeep plug in hybrids because of the risk that batteries could catch fire. Federal safety regulators say the high voltage battery packs in Jeep Wrangler and Grand Cherokee models may have been built with cells that could separate and get damaged. The automaker is advising owners to park their vehicles outside and not charge them until the batteries are fixed. The recall includes wranglers produced since 2020 and Grand Cherokees from 2021 through mid October. Maryland Governor Wes Moore thrust his state into the national redistricting debate today by forming a commission that will consider redrawing Maryland's congressional maps. The five member panel will hold public hearings and make recommendations to the governor and legislature on proposed changes to the state's eight congressional districts. Democrats already hold seven of them. And England's former star soccer captain David Beckham became star Sir David Beckham today. King Charles knighted him at Windsor Castle to recognize his contributions to sport and charity. Beckham was put forward for the knighthood ten years ago. Becker View Frank.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Courtney, thank you very much. Courtney Reagan with the headlines. All right. Coming up next year on halftime, Josh Brown is ready with his best stocks in the market. He's focused on what he calls the ultimate low trust asset. Halftime's back right after this.

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[Joe Terranova]

Edu, cnbc, Sport on the Record, your.

[Jim Lebenthal]

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[Joe Terranova]

From commissioners and owners to media executives.

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And top athletes, these are Rembrandts, I'm.

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Telling you, these franchises on the record.

[Frank Holland]

All new Saturdays, three eastern. And we are back on halftime with Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. Josh, what are you focused on today?

[Josh Brown]

So one of the things that I think is relentlessly fascinating about the markets is how easily price can change your mind. And so when we saw gold earlier in October, making the gold stocks making all time highs along with the price of gold, everyone said all right, this looks overdone or I missed it or I'll buy it on the dip. Well, the dip is here. Newmont Mining is Now in a 20% drawdown from that high and still in a longer term uptrend. So for all the people who said I can't believe I missed it, I'll buy the dip, congratulations, here we are. Who wants it? Not many people. It is now below its below its 50 day which is where historically it had found support the entire way up. And so far this wrestling match looks like the bears have it. You could say the same thing about Anglo Gold. Ashanti, you also on the best stocks in the market list, the third which we talked about, Southern Copper, that pullback actually looks more orderly and that one's actually holding its rising 50 day as well. So I think I'm just pointing out here these are strong stocks and big uptrends. Over the short term, they're finally pulling back to more reasonable levels. Some of that froth is coming out of these trades, possibly because they got caught up in a lot of momentum portfolios because of how well they were doing. Now, if you, if you felt like you missed it, now's your opportunity. I'd be taking a look at all three of these right now.

[Frank Holland]

You know, Josh, you point to what could be, I guess, another catalyst for these, these names longer term, the fact that we have low oil and gas prices and the fact that we're going to see a slight production increase. Mopec seems like it would keep those prices low. Can kind of explain that thesis really quick.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. One of the key input costs to the, to operating a gold mine is energy prices. And so long as energy prices remain low and the price per ton that they can sell of gold, silver, copper remains high or elevated, that bodes well for profit margins next year, which obviously flows down through to earnings per share. So these companies probably are on pace to report some of the most profitable quarters they have ever experienced. That explains why these stocks have done so well this year, because the stock market is already anticipating that. However, that dynamic probably doesn't change very much so long as oil stays low and gold prices remain somewhat elevated. So if you were looking for an opportunity to buy a dip in a bull market, there aren't that. There aren't that many of them in gold over the last year. This is the opportunity.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Joe, you also own Newmont. Your take on just the idea of this company in that trade.

[Joe Terranova]

Well, I agree with Josh. If you're looking for the opportunity to get into precious metals, which have had a very strong year, okay, you're in the midst of right now a correction. Just be prepared and understand that that correction can continue. So you might be buying and have to incur a loss on your initial purchase. You're buying for the long term here for the month of October and really for the fourth quarter. Let me better state. You're seeing that the US Dollar is actually rallying US Dollars up about two and a half percent. That's having an effect on commodities. It's having an effect on silver and gold and copper itself. So I think a lot, a lot of that is coming into play. I also think there was a degree of exuberance. I sent a report to a good friend of mine, natural gas trader Daniel Fisher, and it was saying in the report that big trading companies, commodity trading companies, were looking to hire gold traders globally around the world. He remarked back well, maybe that's just, maybe that's the sign of the top. And I think Daniel's right on that.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Gold pulling backs about 1% right now. All right, coming up on halftime, back to the Jyoti rebalance. Joe's rolling dice on one of the areas of the market that he has never invested in before. Going to give you that trade coming up right after this. And welcome back to halftime. Joe T is rolling the dice on a casino stock for the very first time. He's adding Las Vegas Sands. Joe, give us the case here. I'm told at least you call these dinosaurs in the desert. What made this name attractive now?

[Joe Terranova]

Is Jimmy excited? I wish I could be with him right now, but how excited is he for this name?

[Jim Lebenthal]

What about when? All right, go ahead, Jimmy.

[Joe Terranova]

Unfortunately, I'm going to disappoint you. As you know, one of the criteria we look at for quality is return on equity. And there's too much of a fluctuation there for win with having negative return on equity. That doesn't mean they're consistently have that return on equity being negative. But the trailing 12 months do score is negative. So the one name that we did enter very strong momentum, very strong revenue growth, very strong on debt to equity and return to equity is Las Vegas Sands. And is the very first time in the five year history of this ETF that we have taken a position in a casino stock. Do with that information as you wish. Maybe that means it's a top. I have no idea. But we do. Las Vegas Sands.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Jim, Jim's champion at the bit right here.

[Jim Lebenthal]

I think he's going to make money.

[Frank Holland]

Jim, you own Win, obviously, as you kind of alluded to.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Look, I mean there's, there's, there's. First off, Joe, as we said earlier, is a momentum investor. I'm a fundamental based investor. They are different types of investing. They can both make money. I think, Joe, you're going to make money in Las Vegas Sands. There is a fundamental difference between the two besides what you're talking about with regards to the numbers on return on equity. And the simple difference is Las Vegas Sands is all Singapore and Macao. And Win has exposure, significant exposure in Las Vegas. I happen to think that the Las Vegas exposure is undervalued right now because there was a summer softness in the Las Vegas market market which is being cured right now. And I also, again, from a fundamental point of view, I like Wynn for the Al Marjan resort in Dubai, which is going to, excuse me, in the United Arab Emirates, which is going to open in early 2027. But again, I think both of these stocks are going to make money. And I wish Joe.

[Frank Holland]

Well, always taking the high road. Taking the high road there. All right, let's talk about cruise stocks very quickly. Those stocks taking a pretty big hit today on the backer Norwegian's results. The cruise line beat on earnings, but it then missed on revenue. Joe, you own royal crib. Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

No, and the momentum is broken down here. Look, I think universally when you look at a lot of the consumer discretionary names, they're challenged right now. Pick the reasoning behind what it is and it goes back to Josh's comments at the top of the show and what we said yesterday. Frank, I said yesterday the market that is greeting you in the month of November is much different than the market that was greeting you in the month of October. You don't have that broad set of opportunities you did 30 days ago. Josh said it very well, succinctly stated. We don't have the broadening out and the consumer element is one of those, one of the lost components of the reasoning behind. We don't have the broadening out narrative right now in front of us.

[Frank Holland]

All right, looking at Royal Caribbean right now pulling back more than 6%. Coming up next on halftime, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. We are back right after this break. And we are back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word right here at Post nine. Hey, Mike, looking at the markets trading lower across the board, you've been looking at a number of different, different things. There was a warning about SK Hynix in Korea. Obviously we had the Morgan Stanley and the Goldman CEO talking about a correction. Are those two things combined leading to this or is it also something else? I mean, valuation? We've had Joe Terranova talk quite a bit about that.

[Mike Santoli]

No, I think it's an accumulation of small divergences and excesses and just really environmental conditions that showed you that first of all, we're due for something like this. There have been only 6, 7 1% declines in the S&P 500 since April. That's less than half the typical, you know, kind of incidence of 1% declines over that kind of a period of time. So I do think that that warning on SK Hynix, the sell the news on Palantir, the inability of the other AI plays to kind of, you know, kind of marshal the, the defenses and actually rise in the face of. So that showed you that we have pent up selling to do. And that's been a result of the narrowness of this phase of the rally and the slippage in the rotation. Like there is this instinct to rotate when you have the leading parts of the market pulling back and it's not finding it in consumer cyclicals which really remain in slow motion growth scare mode. I will continue to say you have airlines down again 2%. You have the equal weighted consumer discretionary back to where it was was in late November of last year. Okay. So that's something that's an underlying condition. But you are getting a bid in value and low volatility and pure defense today. So we'll see if that's enough. I don't think it really changes the overall trend, but it shows you that there's this acute sensitivity to this idea that if we don't have the AI story working all guns at once, then you might, you maybe have to crack a little bit.

[Frank Holland]

All right. How much we make of the equal weight outperformance? The market cap weighted index today we were on last week after MET and was like all people are rotating out attack. Well, they rotated right back in about 12 hours later.

[Mike Santoli]

I mean it's way too early. First of all, the equal weight is on the dead lows against the s and P500. Okay. So yeah, it's going to perform a little bit better in a downtape. That's fine. You'd have to see it be a more of a trend change. I don't think that that transfer happens on the fly. I think you have to be in correction mode and then maybe the non mega cap part of the market can, can start to lead.

[Frank Holland]

All right, Mike Santoli with his midday work. All right, stay with us. Final trades are coming up on halftime. We will be right back. All right, welcome back to halftime. Before final trades, we want to hit one more earnings mover. It's Spotify. You can see here down about 3%. Joe, you own this one in the Jyoti.

[Joe Terranova]

I do. It's important to talk about this because this is a 2025 VIP name. Many people own this name. Very well owned. The response to this report is not good. And Spotify has not been trading well.

[Mike Santoli]

6%.

[Joe Terranova]

Ad pressure. Ad revenue pressure. This stock has now broken its 200 day moving average. First time it's done it since 2023. You have to exert discipline here over the next several days. If it doesn't break back above the two you are in today, you have to reduce your positioning.

[Frank Holland]

All right, want to move on to final trades right now. Joe, you might as well kick us off.

[Joe Terranova]

Let's add a health care name to the conversation. I think health care looks pretty good right here. That would be Insulet Pod Josh Brown staying long?

[Josh Brown]

Uber.

[Frank Holland]

Jim, you got the final word.

[Jim Lebenthal]

Okay, well, you know, I'm thinking about Joe. You've said a few times about how the financials have been weakening recently, and certainly the alternative, alternative managers have led the charge on the downside. But a very good report today from Apollo. That's a recently initiated position by me, one that I think in the years to come is going to come along and maybe that momentum will come back and we'll get Joe in this one as well.

[Joe Terranova]

I feel.

[Jim Lebenthal]

No, you're mistaking me.

[Joe Terranova]

We just sold it.

[Frank Holland]

The conversation. There, that does it for halftime. These guys can finish their conversation offline. The exchange starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us.

[Joe Terranova]

Live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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[Emily Wilkins]

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