CNBC Halftime Report – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is the Rally on Solid Ground?
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jim Lebenthal
Correspondents: Emily Wilkins, Mike Santoli

Overview

This episode focuses on whether the ongoing stock market rally is robust or precarious. With stocks broadly retreating and big market-moving names like Palantir and Oracle getting attention, the panel assesses technical signals, earnings reactions, valuation debates, and sector rotations. The conversation also addresses major individual stocks—Palantir, NVIDIA, Uber, Vertex, and casino stocks—while weaving in context from breaking news in Washington and global markets.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Check: Is the Rally Shaky or Solid?

• Current State:
  • Markets are down across the board; Dow falling 100+ points, S&P off 0.75%, NASDAQ down more than 1% ([01:09]).
  • Despite a weak premarket, stocks opened above those lows.
• Jim Lebenthal:
  • "Any dip, no matter how small or inconsequential, is likely to be bought from here to year end." ([01:54])
  • Attributes buying to institutional investors lagging benchmarks, seeking to catch up as year-end approaches.
  • Warns against making aggressive short-term predictions, but sees strong buying on dips as a prevailing pattern.

2. Correction Warnings and Valuation Concerns

• Joe Terranova:
  • Notes warnings from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs' CEOs about potential market corrections ([03:07]).
  • Points out 100+ trading days have passed without a 5% correction, so one is "healthy and normal."
  • "Today is about valuation…valuation is the impediment." ([03:54])
  • Sectors like healthcare are rallying as high-valuation sectors get repriced.

3. Under-the-Surface Weakness and Market Breadth

• Josh Brown:
  • "We're actually undergoing a market-wide correction right now. The reason why people don't know is because it hasn't hit the mag7 names." ([05:07])
  • Stats:
    • 31% of S&P 500 components are >20% below 52-week highs.
    • 62% of S&P 500 below their 50-day moving average ([05:07]).
  • He describes this as necessary and healthy: "They wick that enthusiasm off the top and reset and I think it’s good." ([06:40])
• Oracle as a Case Study:
  • "This thing just filled the entire gap… This is what healthy bull markets do." ([06:40])

4. Stock Spotlight: Palantir’s Earnings, Valuation, and Volatility

• Q3 Earnings Reaction:
  • “Palantir really hit the ball out of the park…but the only challenge is how to value Palantir and how much of its growth is already priced in.” – Emily Wilkins ([09:21])
  • Palantir trades at 83x projected 2026 sales – considered “extreme” by Jefferies.
• CEO Alex Karp’s Colorful Commentary:
  • “They thought Palantir was overvalued at 10. They thought it was overvalued at 20… Find a company…with US commercial growing at 121%...aggregate growth in the US is 77%.” – Alex Karp (quoted at [10:04])
  • Karp blasts Michael Burry (of "Big Short" fame), who disclosed puts against Palantir, saying: “The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is crazy.” ([10:28])
• Panel’s Take:
  • Joe Terranova:
    • “Valuation was the impediment…85 times sales, 200 plus times earnings.” ([11:19])
    • Momentum got him into the stock, momentum will get him out. “The momentum has remained in place in this stock and I don’t know where we’re going to exit.” ([11:55])
  • Josh Brown:
    • “Nobody’s denying any of that…The entirety of the debate is: how much growth have investors already pulled forward into the valuation?” ([14:11])
    • Suggests CEO Karp is overly defensive; the business fundamentals are widely admired.
    • “A more Buffett-esque response would be, ‘We take care of the business, the share price will take care of itself.’” ([15:15])
  • Jim Lebenthal:
    • “The problem is, I can’t take investors’ hard-earned money and put it to work at 200 times earnings…” ([17:09])
    • Warns that shorting via puts (like Burry is doing) carries high risk and patience that the average investor lacks: “There is a cost to puts…The average investor can’t wait that long.” ([17:54])
  • Josh Brown on Michael Burry:
    • “He’s willing to be public with his positions. Maybe it’s interesting to some market participants, but if you think he’s your financial adviser, dude, you’re losing perspective.” ([18:34])

5. Valuation-Led Rotations and Sector Moves

• Semiconductors:
  • Jefferies replaces NVIDIA with Broadcom as top pick; AMD reporting after the bell ([21:14]).
  • Joe Terranova: Valuation “is a little bit high” for AMD, raising the bar for earnings ([21:23]).
  • Josh Brown: Expects profit-taking even on good numbers: “Stocks go down on good news sometimes. That’s not a signal that something’s wrong.” ([22:49])
• Earnings Drift/Expectations Management:
  • Investor reactions often more about expectations and recent run-ups than results themselves ([23:42]).

6. Washington Watch: Government Shutdown Update

• Emily Wilkins:
  • Senate once again fails to pass a government funding stopgap ([25:13]).
  • Bipartisan talks gaining momentum, but “nothing is final yet.”

7. Earnings Movers: Uber and Vertex

• Uber:
  • Despite robust profitability and tech innovation, shares fall post-earnings.
  • Josh Brown: “This is a company that’s reported another incredible quarter…they are literally crushing it.” ([28:12])
  • Joe Terranova: Cites “one-time legal charge” and a “risk off” day; otherwise, Uber remains fundamentally strong ([30:01]).
• Vertex:
  • Initially dipped despite a “beat-and-raise” quarter.
  • Jim Lebenthal: “I think there is a much greater runway ahead for how Journavax will be prescribed…” ([31:13])
  • Praises Vertex’s cystic fibrosis franchise and pipeline.

8. Commodity Trades: Gold and Miners

• Josh Brown’s Top Picks:
  • Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti, Southern Copper—all strong stocks now pulling back, creating buying opportunities for those who missed earlier runs ([34:36]).
  • Notes pullbacks are “what healthy bull markets do.”
• Joe Terranova:
  • Agrees gold’s correction isn’t over but offers long-term entry; cites US dollar rally and possible signs that some exuberance has come out ([37:20]).

9. Casino and Consumer Discretionary Stocks

• Las Vegas Sands:
  • Joe Terranova: Adds LVS to the Jyoti ETF for the first time, citing strong momentum and quality metrics ([39:12]).
• Wynn Resorts:
  • Jim Lebenthal: Prefers Wynn for its undervalued Las Vegas exposure and future Dubai resort ([40:08]).
  • Both see upside in casino plays, albeit for different fundamental/structural reasons.
• Cruise Stocks:
  • Joe Terranova: Momentum “broken down” in cruise lines, symptomatic of broader consumer discretionary weakness ([41:16]).

10. Mike Santoli’s Midday Word: The “Narrowness” Problem

• Notes an accumulation of “small divergences and excesses” leading to greater volatility.
• "You are getting a bid in value, low volatility, and pure defense today."
• Cautions that the AI/mag7 theme’s inability to “marshal the defenses” intensifies rotation risk ([42:33]).

11. Notable Earnings Update: Spotify

• Joe Terranova:
  • “This is a 2025 VIP name… The response to this report is not good… You have to exert discipline here over the next several days.” ([44:54])
  • Warns on ad revenue shortfall and technical weakness.

12. Final Trades

• Joe Terranova: Insulet (health care) – “Health care looks pretty good right here.” ([45:26])
• Josh Brown: Stays long Uber. ([45:36])
• Jim Lebenthal: Apollo Global Management – “A very good report today from Apollo...one that I think in years to come is going to come along.” ([45:39])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jim Lebenthal:
  "Any dip, no matter how small and inconsequential, is likely to be bought from here to year end." ([01:54])

• Josh Brown:
  "The reason why people don't know [about the correction] is because it hasn't hit the mag7 names, but that's literally what's taking place." ([05:07])

• Alex Karp (via Emily Wilkins):
  "Find a company in the world that has a rule of 114, that has U.S. commercial growing at 121%...that aggregate growth in the U.S. is 77%." ([10:13])

• Josh Brown:
  "A more Buffett-esque response would be, we take care of the business, the share price will take care of itself." ([15:15])

• Jim Lebenthal (on shorting/puts):
  "The average investor can't wait that long. That's why shorting, or in this case, buying puts, is awfully dangerous for a stock that's growing earnings per share at 50%." ([17:54])

• Josh Brown (on following pros like Burry):
  "If you think he's your financial adviser, dude, you're losing perspective." ([18:34])

• Josh Brown (on earnings expectations):
  "Stocks go down on good news sometimes. That's not a signal that something's wrong." ([22:49])

• Mike Santoli:
  "The narrowness of this phase of the rally and the slippage in the rotation...there is this acute sensitivity to this idea that if we don't have the AI story working, then you maybe have to crack a little bit." ([42:33])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:01] – Episode Opening and Market Check
• [01:54] – Lebenthal on dip-buying and institutional chasing into year-end
• [03:07] – Correction warnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and discussion of valuations
• [05:07] – Josh Brown on "under-the-surface" market corrections
• [09:21] – Palantir earnings and valuation debate
• [10:04] – Alex Karp's defense of Palantir's growth and valuation metrics
• [14:11] – Josh Brown: "Nobody's denying [Palantir's metrics]...it's about how much growth is already priced in"
• [17:09] – Jim Lebenthal on why most investors shouldn’t chase high-valuation growth stocks
• [18:34] – Josh Brown on dangers of following high-profile traders
• [21:14] – Semiconductor sector update—NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD
• [22:49] – Josh Brown: "Stocks go down on good news sometimes..."
• [25:13] – Emily Wilkins live from Washington with shutdown update
• [28:12] – Josh Brown and Joe Terranova break down Uber’s quarter
• [31:13] – Jim Lebenthal’s bullish case for Vertex
• [34:36] – Josh Brown’s best stocks in the market (gold and mining theme)
• [39:12] – Joe Terranova adds Las Vegas Sands to ETF; panel debates casino stocks
• [41:16] – Cruise stocks and consumer discretionary weakness
• [42:33] – Mike Santoli’s midday market take on breadth and sensitivity
• [44:54] – Spotify’s earnings reaction and warning from Joe Terranova
• [45:26] – Final trades (Insulet, Uber, Apollo)

Tone and Style

The tone of the episode is energetic, analytical, and occasionally combative—especially around debates on valuation versus momentum, and following big-name investors. The panel is candid, with members often poking fun at each other’s strategies (momentum vs fundamentals), and quick to emphasize discipline in volatile markets.

This episode offers a comprehensive, real-time look at emerging market risks beneath the surface of headline gains, ongoing rotation, and the tension between valuation and momentum as year-end approaches. Listeners come away with nuanced takes on high-profile stocks, sector shifts, and the psychological drivers of market behavior.