Halftime Report: Is the Worst Over for Stocks? (April 15, 2025)
Hosted by CNBC's Scott Wapner

Introduction

In the April 15, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner engages with top investors from the Wall Street community to dissect the current state of the stock market. The central question posed is, "Is the worst over for stocks?" As the trading day hits its midpoint, the panel delves into market sentiments, sector performances, and strategic investment moves to provide listeners with a comprehensive analysis of where the market stands and where it's headed.

Market Update

Scott Wapner opens the discussion with a market overview, noting a general upward trend:

"We are green across the board. We do feel, Joe, a little more settled down today. Yields are down. Maybe that's the reason why bond market seems to have calmed down just a touch." [00:59]

He highlights recent adjustments in stock price targets from major financial institutions:

• Wells Fargo: S&P 500 target adjusted to 5,900-6,100.
• Jefferies: Lowered its target from 6,000 to 5,300.
• Bank of America: Reported the fifth most bearish global fund manager survey in 25 years, with heightened recession expectations and increased intentions to cut US stock holdings.

Scott references Jim Cramer's contrasting bullish stance:

"Jim Cramer declared this morning on Squawk on the Street that says buy, not sell. What do you say?" [02:24]

Sentiment Indicators

Joe Terranova provides insights into market sentiment, emphasizing a shift away from earlier pessimism:

"The consensus is pivoting away from where they were at the beginning of the year... The VIX is below 30. That's the first time it's been there since April 2nd." [02:24]

Laura Castleton discusses the improvement in sentiment indicators:

"It's up, but it's still. We're still in oversold conditions... The S&P oscillator is now negative 4. It's still oversold, but not nearly as much." [03:51]

She praises the resilience of major banks:

"I was pretty impressed with Wells Fargo and Net Interest Income, Bank of America Net Interest Income." [04:52]

Investment Strategies and Stock Analysis

Shannon Sokotia on Market Positioning

Shannon Sokotia addresses whether it's time to buy or hold:

"Our view is that it's, it's more on the side of being time to buy... You're not going to be able to time that." [05:33]

She emphasizes overweighting global equities, particularly in Japan and Europe, anticipating additional fiscal stimulus in 2025.

Josh Brown on Defensive Stocks: Selling Alphabet, Buying Netflix

Josh Brown shares his strategic move of selling Alphabet shares and investing in Netflix as a defensive play:

"Not everything is an extreme. I'm not in the camp that thinks Alphabet's gonna lose the AI race... I think it's a defensive year." [08:20]

He details his bullish stance on Netflix, citing its resilience and growth potential:

"I think this is the most defensible technology company almost to the point where it's a consumer defensive stock... I don't think it's necessarily a cheap stock at today's price, but I think it's going to act more defensively and has way more potential upside." [09:57]

Scott probes into the market's rerating of stocks:

"There does seem to be a rerating at the very least of expectations. And I think that's what you're talking about for these kinds of stocks in this kind of environment." [14:16]

Dubravko Lakoš on JPMorgan's Market Outlook

Dubravko Lakoš presents JPMorgan's revised S&P 500 target amidst ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties:

"We're trying to think about it through scenarios. So we basically put a bull case of 5,800, a bear case of 4,000... the base case is 5,200." [16:56]

He discusses the impact of tariffs, particularly focusing on China, and the challenges in forecasting amidst a concentrated trade war. Lakoš also touches on potential fiscal policies and their implications for future growth.

Sector-Specific Discussions

• Energy Sector

  The panel scrutinizes the underperformance of the energy sector, with Joe Terranova highlighting resilience in major players like ExxonMobil:

  "I still think when you're looking at natural gas on a discretionary basis, to me that is more relevant and you have more opportunity there versus crude oil itself." [36:49]

  Josh Brown explains his decision to sell Baker Hughes after it breached a preset stop loss, while maintaining long-term positions in major energy companies like Chevron:

  "It's a more defensive way to be in energy... Not quite as reliant on day-to-day spot price moves." [36:11]

• Cybersecurity Sector

  Josh Brown and Laura Castleton express strong confidence in the cybersecurity sector, citing its critical role in the evolving technological landscape:

  "This space, and I'd love to hear Steph agrees, I think this space has legs throughout the rest of the year." [43:09]

  Castleton adds:

  "I actually think this is my favorite theme for the next decade... Due to AI, you're going to need cyber." [45:02]

Notable Stock Movements

Boeing

Laura Castleton discusses Boeing's minor setback due to halted deliveries to China amidst the trade war:

"It's down 50 basis points on this news. So clearly this is not material for Boeing at this point in time." [30:22]

Palantir

Joe Terranova highlights Palantir's significant share increase following its AI military system acquisition:

"This is a huge win. It speaks towards the products that they have as it relates to AI and the integration of AI and defense weaponry." [31:22]

Northrop Grumman and Fastenal

Josh Brown introduces Northrop Grumman and Fastenal as top performers and new additions to his best stocks list:

"Northrop is on the verge of a massive breakout... Fastenal is one of the best stocks in the market." [40:12]

Joe Terranova reinforces Fastenal's prospects despite recent earnings:

"Stock is up 13%... assuming that demand remains strong." [42:38]

Conclusion and Final Remarks

As the discussion wraps up, the panel emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning amidst market volatility. With a focus on defensive sectors like cybersecurity and resilient companies like Netflix and Fastenal, investors are advised to navigate the uncertain landscape with informed confidence.

Scott Wapner closes the episode by reiterating the necessity of staying engaged and vigilant:

"All right, we'll take a break with a hot take on the other side from Josh on one of this year's top-performing tech trades." [29:08]

Notable Quotes

• Scott Wapner:
  "Is the worst of the turbulence over for stocks?" [00:59]

• Joe Terranova:
  "The consensus is pivoting away from where they were at the beginning of the year." [02:24]

• Laura Castleton:
  "We're still in oversold conditions, but not nearly as much." [03:51]

• Shannon Sokotia:
  "You're not going to be able to time that [the market]." [05:33]

• Josh Brown:
  "I think this is the most defensible technology company almost to the point where it's a consumer defensive stock." [09:57]

• Dubravko Lakoš:
  "We're trying to think about it through scenarios." [16:56]

• Joe Terranova:
  "Energy has been a struggle, down 14% month to date." [36:49]

• Laura Castleton:
  "I actually think this is my favorite theme for the next decade." [45:02]

• Josh Brown:
  "Northrop is on the verge of a massive breakout." [40:12]

This episode of Halftime Report provides a multifaceted view of the current market dynamics, balancing optimism with caution. The insights shared offer valuable guidance for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of today's financial landscape.