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Halftime Report
Keep Buying Stocks? 7/10/25
00:44:31
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate whether it’s safe to continue buying stocks as another tech record hits the tape. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, Josh Brown reveals another company making it into his “Best Stocks in the Market.” Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Edward Jones
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes, and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC on WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your grand's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates, who still ask for it every week in your group chat because on WhatsApp, you your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
- [01:03]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, another tech record as more firms urge investors to continue to buy stocks. Stocks. We'll ask the committee if they agree what their best strategy is right now. Joining me for the hour, Josh Brown, Jason Snipe, KEVIN Simpson, BRITAIN Talkington we will check the markets. We did tell you that tech did. The NASDAQ did hit a record high again. We're green across the board, not big moves in either direction, but there you see them. J.P. morgan Today, Josh says equity inflows could mean stocks go another 5 to 10% by year end. HSBC today says to buy more. Welcome back. It's good to have you back. The most dangerous place probably, probably to be today is between Josh Brown and a television camera after vacation. So welcome back. And it's the floor is yours, sir.
- [02:06]
Josh Brown
I'm really, I'm really happy to be back. And I read all the notes that we're going to talk about today. And I think the thing that's fundamentally, really important to understand, the strategist has a very tricky job. They obviously can't see the future and they have to think big and they have to think about July. What do things look like, you know, within the next six months? How do we end the year? What are some of the stumbling blocks that we might need to get past? And then what is like the chronological setup you've got an earnings quarter about to get underway. This should be a fairly good earnings quarter if consensus is even close to what the numbers will end up being. There might be a surprise here and there with a tariff announcement, et cetera, et cetera. But like they have to skip to the end and they have to do so in a non, nonsensical way. So they build this framework and the framework has to have something to do with earnings and something to do with the rate outlook. And when you do that and you realize that one of the biggest risks to this market that we were all worried about as, as, as you all know, the tariff thing, as you realize that that's sort of petering out and it's still with us and it still could produce shocks, but it's probably not going to be a worst case scenario. Then what are you really worried about? Like other than the typical exogenous event that no one could predict, what's the real thing that you're worried about? Because we got through the tax debate okay. This was a big one and we got through it. We've gotten through several earnings quarters the last two quarters where the upside surprises were wild, but wild upside surprises. We got through the concerns about is the theme going to have legs this year or did everyone shoot, shoot their wide last year? Now we know that's not true. They have to spend just to maintain the spending they already committed to doing. So when you, when you realize that that's the setup and which stocks are most important to the index level returns, that's where you get to a place where the analysts are saying, okay, no worst case scenario on trade. No problem with the tax bill. Earnings are surprising to the upside. Economy's holding up. Yeah, I'm at $6,900 for next year. Yeah, I'm at 6,100 for this year. Why wouldn't I be? And so I think that's the way you want to interpret this, as somebody managing your own money. Why are they arriving at that conclusion?
- [04:20]
Scott Wapner
I mean the President's noticed the market obviously. He, he posted on Truth Social a little bit earlier, quote, tech stocks, industrial stocks, NASDAQ hit all time record highs. Crypto through the roof. Nvidia up 47% since Trump tariffs. Of course that ignores the fact that the announcement of the tariffs crushed the stock market. But that's neither here nor there. He said the US is back. He says no inflation, he wants rates lower. So it's gotten his attention to Brin. Are we supposed to continue to buy stocks?
- [04:51]
Bryn Talkington
I think so. I think, I think the pain trade is people that are trying to, we'll say time the market or sit in cash or overweight bonds. I think that while the market has largely become anesthetized to the tariff letters, the threats, etc. What's interesting, who hasn't become anesthetized to it is the Federal Reserve chairman, Jay Powell. And so I think the irony, if we would actually just had 10% tariffs move on and just be settled out, I think the Fed would be set to start cutting rates. Cutting rates asap. Because we can. Right. And so if you look at the yield curve, there's plenty of room to cut rates. But the Fed is, Jay Powell clearly says that we don't know about tariffs. So I think that that's going to be, we'll say the juxtaposition this year is between tariffs and rates. And I do think ultimately we'll get one or two rate cuts which then goes into, if earnings are strong, we get one or two rate cuts. And to Josh's point, barring an exogenous event that just like should lead stocks higher, whether it's in a linear path is anyone's guess. But it does feel like the market should be higher six months from now.
- [06:03]
Scott Wapner
President should have gone even one better, Jason. I mean Nvidia is up 88% since the April low. It's even more impressive of what, what has happened. And by the way, as that stock got within 3 cents of a another new high and maybe it actually did hit it now. It was reiterated sell today. $100 is the target. Seaport Research, that's a 38% downside from here. What do you think about that? I mean we've had some calls on some high flying stocks of late to maybe take some of the, you know, in there and some of the analysts might froth off but you know, I don't know what you think about this call.
- [06:40]
Jason Snipe
Fine. Seaport's been busy over the last couple of weeks. I think they, they also downgrade Netflix recently. So what I would say about that call, first of all, datacenter momentum is still very much intact. You know, growing demand for sovereign AI. We've seen that with all the Middle east deals, you know, and this Blackwell Ultra chip from a production standpoint is 50% stronger than, than the last iteration of it. So when I look at sales going forward again, we saw a double from in 24 and 25. Right? Sales rising 52% in 2026, 22% in 2027. So yes, there is somewhat of a slowdown. But in my view, they still are the flag runner here. And I think that from an innovations perspective, they're still very much motivated to continue to run the story that they.
- [07:31]
Scott Wapner
Have 5 to 10% for stocks by year end from here. I've had people tell me 7,000 doesn't sound crazy. You're at 60, almost 6,300. 7,000 sound possible to you? Is HSBC correct to say Buy more? They increase their overweight to equities further, they now prefer US equities the most, which is interesting because you've had other calls too, that the better value exists internationally. They say risk assets are set to remain supported with lower sensitivity to tariffs and the Q2 reporting season is key catalysts.
- [08:06]
Kevin Simpson
Here's why I think 7,000 this year is a little bit of a stretch, although I'm sure I'm certain that we'll get there soon enough. Everything Brin said was right. The Fed is restrictive. The Fed does want to cut rates. But the problem is that because tariffs still exist even if we're all ignoring them and most of the people on the floor are ignoring it, there's an August 1st date now that's out. So if you're a Fed chair and you're Chairman Powell, you're going to want to at least see one or two months of data to prove that the inflation isn't tariff driven. So that takes us to September at best for a rate, a rate cut. Excuse me, we're not getting one in July. We may get one more at the.
- [08:39]
Josh Brown
End of the year.
- [08:39]
Kevin Simpson
We could get two. But it's going to be tough for the market to get to 7,000 this year if we're not having a pull forward on rate cuts.
- [08:45]
Scott Wapner
I mean, but if, and by the way, if you have a 10,000, 10,000, if you have a 10% increase between now and year end, you're basically there. You're on the doorstep of 7K. Josh, on the rate cut, S and P. Yes.
- [09:00]
Josh Brown
Nobody should be baking in any specific number of rate cuts as a means to say stocks therefore are 8 to 10% undervalued. Like that should not be the bull case that we're going to get like accommodative policy because the employment situation is going to start to suck. Like that's just, the logic is, is completely backwards. Nobody should root for medicine. Look, rates are probably too high. Let's all agree, okay? Probably given the, the actual like GDP growth rate and maybe given some of the softening in like initial claims, which honestly is not that bad, but fine. Let's just say they were a little bit restrictive. Are they 200 basis points over where they should be? No, I don't think anybody would say that. And you didn't need rate cuts this entire rally. So what, what are you begging for Sudafed for? I don't understand it. So that's number one. Number two more important than any of that is whether or not the Capex theme holds up because that's what's driving earnings and that's what's driving the 2, 3, 4 trillion dollar stocks that matter the most to the market cap by the way. Also driving the financial sector, all the M and A, all the venture backed startup stuff, the IPO window being flung open, all of it is coming from CapEx. And I'll tell you something else that's not popular but I'm going to say it, it's also driving the consumer spending. I watched TV this morning, the Delta CEO was on Squawk talking about the K shaped recovery. The they had like three different guests in a row. Bank of America talking about it. Look, it's the top 20% of the country that's, that's accelerating their spending. They're not doing that magically in a void. They're doing that because of what their brokerage accounts look like every morning when they open up the app. They don't. They're doing that because of what their 401k balances look like. That's why they're accelerating their spending on travel and luxury and so services. So if you tell me that you think the AI Capex tailwind holds up, then the domino effect for all of that is well the consumer spend is going to be fine, the leisure economy is going to be fine, retail is going to be fine, restaurants can be fine. And, and that's the way that you need to think, not oh my God, I need my rate cut. What's wrong with you?
- [11:12]
Scott Wapner
I'll give you something on that. Piper today says their latest CIO survey reinforced a bullish spending backdrop for air infrastructure. That is Capex. Right? They raised their price target on Microsoft to 600. It was 475 prior. They raised their estimates, they upgrade Oracle to Overweight.270 is the price target.190 was prior. If you look at the performance of AI infrastructure stocks since the April low, it's the power providers, it is the cloud providers, it is a dell brand up 76%. It is Vistra and Vertiv up 90 and 87% respectively. It is Constellation up 68%. Arista and Marvell, and that's just to name a handful and an extra one. But that's where the money is. You go where the money's going, right?
- [12:03]
Bryn Talkington
Absolutely. I mean, and I think that from the Capex spend, I mean, we already know, we talked about this the other day when Mark Zuckerberg is campaign multiple engineers, hundred million dollar signing bonuses. Capex is, I think, going to continue to ramp up. And so, you know, Saudi talks about being with the spend having like a high roi, which is great. I think investors want to hear that. But I think with these big hyperscalers, the spend is just going to continue. I think that's why Core Weave bought Core Scientific, because they need to control energy to build more. And so I do think, you know, Nvidia's numbers don't come out till the end of August, but over the next couple of weeks we're going to hear from all the hyperscalers and I think they are going to reaffirm the spend. And you can list off those names again and look at those names. All those names you just listed, the Vista, the Dell, Oracle, etcetera, etcetera, are going to be the beneficiaries of those. And I think so you're going to continue to see that. I will say one thing, on rates, you know, the CPI is at what, two and a half percent. Fed funds are at four and a half percent. Rates should be coming down. Right. That's just like simple math. And I think that if it does come down, that will continue to push the market higher.
- [13:08]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Jason, you and Kevin both own Oracle, you guys own Microsoft. Brin does as well. Do you just continue to lean into these trades?
- [13:17]
Jason Snipe
I think you have to. I think to Josh's point, when you talk about capex and when I, when I think about it and look at these stocks and look at the reports, you know, I lean into RPO. RPO, which is remaining performance obligations, is up 34% for Microsoft. This is a huge company that's $315 billion. So we talk about capacity constraints and what these companies are, the backlogs are. I mean, demand is insatiable. So you look at that and you look at Oracle, same story. RPO is up 31%. That's over $100 billion of business that is due that, that, that, that they need to kind of get through and, and get executed and execute on. So for me, yes, that's what's driving the story and I think it continues.
- [13:58]
Scott Wapner
All right, so the hyperscalers baked continue to spend or certainly are weighing the possibility of doing that to even higher degrees. Amazon weighing further investment in anthropic. That's according to the ftse. JP Morgan's retail radar says Amazon replaced Nvidia as the most bought stock last week. Prime Day wasn't off to a great start. Sales down 41% on the first day. But again, are we talking about Amazon as a. As the principal story is not about the marketplace now, it's about the AI marketplace. It's like the AI marketplace which they literally, as the CEO told us a few weeks back on the west coast, that's what they're aiming to now build.
- [14:43]
Jason Snipe
Yep.
- [14:43]
Josh Brown
Yeah, I think that's right and this is the name. Look, I'm obviously everyone knows I'm long Nvidia and I'm not rooting for there to be more competition on the GPU and training and inferencing chip side but I do think like Amazon very seriously is week after week making AI or AI adjacent announcements on the hardware side that are really important. Like they're talking about their own chip cooling equipment right now because of how much usage there is in the data centers that they've already invested in. This is a really interesting situation because they've got that infrastructure and now they're spending to support it. But while they're doing that, they're finding ways to continue to innovate and bring more and more in house. They're like Amazon as a hardware builder for the revolution is not really a thing that a lot of people had on their bingo card six months ago. But we have to start thinking of this company this way. And when you do, the only thing you can conclude is it might actually be owned, undervalued if you're thinking in five and ten year increments. So Amazon's a big position for me personally. I've been adding to it. I've talked about this name as a name that could surprise in the second half to the upside. I also said that in December for the first half and I was wrong. So I'm so I'm redoing that call. But I really think Amazon's not getting enough credit for how important US is going to be for this AI the remainder of the decade.
- [16:12]
Scott Wapner
Kev Alphabet Tactical outperform Evercore ISI that's ahead of their earnings which are obviously in a few weeks metta the target to 765 from 690. That's reiterated by at bank of America. You own both.
- [16:28]
Kevin Simpson
We talked a lot About Google and their loss of the search monopoly. Perplexity is bringing in a search engine. We know what's happening with OpenAI search. I think Google still has 60 per cent percent of AI search, which is very powerful. But it's, it's branching out into all the other things. Everything that Josh said about Amazon is why I like it. The prime week, the prime month is not as important as the ad revenue that you get for the ad eyeballs that come there. Everything else that they're doing, you didn't mention robotics or all of the other things that they're doing. Satellites, really going after Tesla. That is my top pick for the year.
- [17:01]
Josh Brown
Drone delivery. The list is so long.
- [17:05]
Kevin Simpson
The best thing about this show is that I think all the viewers already own these names. So we're not looking at it to say should we be buying these companies.
- [17:11]
Josh Brown
Hidden Gem, Amazon and Alphabet.
- [17:14]
Scott Wapner
Adding to, adding to or not is the. Is the question right? When you're at record highs, when you have a sector like tech and stocks like these, not Alphabet specific, for all.
- [17:25]
Kevin Simpson
Of them across the board, you wait for pullbacks and you can add to them 100%. I don't think you need to chase them here because when you talk about where these things have come from, April, the lows, it's incredible. But the five year trajectory to me is so exciting. I just can't wait till next week when we've got earnings.
- [17:38]
Scott Wapner
Well, let me ask you this. By virtue of our conversation alone, we're 16 and a half minutes into our program today. It's been concentrated, hasn't it? All over big tech and how can't it be? That's where the action is, which is also concentrated in the market, which people say the market is too extreme. Like Apollo Today, S&P 500 concentration has returned to extreme levels. It's not good for investors seeking to diversify their investments across 500 different companies. Anyone investing in the S and P, they say today is basically making a bet on the Mag 7 stocks propelling even higher. Okay, that's true, this is it.
- [18:23]
Josh Brown
But because they're pitching private equity, the reality is, I heard all that like, oh, if Apple stumbles, then all these people who are invested in the S and P, they're going to have a lost decade. I'm not going to make. No, what actually ends up happening is Apple stumbles and Oracle comes along like that is not, it's fundamentally not how it works that you have to have MAG7 continuously doing 20% every year in order to make money as an Investor. And in large cap US stocks. I know people want it to be that way. So they can sell an alternative or they can get you into a small cap fund or they could get you into a buffer etf.
- [18:59]
Scott Wapner
They're not the only one saying that the market though is too concentrated. If you look at the outcome, concentrated.
- [19:05]
Josh Brown
But here's the thing. It's not as concentrated. All right, this is what I want to say. Forget everything I just said. The concert. Listen up. This is. Because this is just not my opinion. It's the mathematics. The concentration of the MAG7 as a percentage of the S and P is lower at this 52 week all time high than it was at the 21 peak or 2023 or 23 for that matter. Thank you. So if you don't like concentration, I don't either. The good news is it's becoming less so. And why not? Because these stocks, Nvidia is not shrinking. The reason why. So you've got the second tier below the max seven, the Mac 50, whatever you want to call it. Names like Crowdstrike and Netflix and Spotify. Not in the index, but you get the point. You've got Oracle, you've got all of these other market caps that have grown alongside the Mag 7 and in some cases have grown at a faster rate. So it's not an all in bet on Microsoft and Apple to the extent that it was five, four years ago.
- [20:06]
Kevin Simpson
Financials and industrials.
- [20:07]
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
- [20:08]
Josh Brown
J.P. morgan's at 800. Thank you, J.P. morgan. This is the best setup man in the business, by the way. J.P. well, do you know, do you know the human head weighs eight pounds, Jerry? No. Do you know that JP Morgan has outperformed five of the Magnificent seven over the last five years? Not like, not a lot of people even know that. Like JP Morgan is almost a trillion. Berkshire Hathaway hit a trillion dollars. These are S&P 500.
- [20:31]
Scott Wapner
Right? You're highlighting the that fact. Fact.
- [20:33]
Josh Brown
It's not what you think.
- [20:35]
Scott Wapner
It's. It's not concentrated solely in big tech. It is concentrated at cap size.
- [20:44]
Josh Brown
Okay?
- [20:45]
Scott Wapner
Goldman and JPM and Caterpillar Economy and Netflix and all these kinds of stocks, those are the ones that have driven the bus.
- [20:54]
Josh Brown
A. That's every bull market in history. 1960s, 1980s, 19. That's number one two. At least you've got sector dispersion now amongst these mega caps. And we're not just talking about iPhones and social media.
- [21:09]
Scott Wapner
What about this hotshot? The high beta ETF, okay, that's at a record high 12 positive days of the past 13 is what it is going for. There are some who are negative on the high volume trade. Some would say one of the knocks on this move if you go outside of large stocks like we just said are lower quality, higher beta names have really gone parabolic in some respects and that's a risk.
- [21:43]
Josh Brown
You and I have been here together for a long time. Didn't they say this was the problem in 2013, 2,099. I mean there are times where it's a problem and times where it doesn't.
- [21:52]
Scott Wapner
Matter matter and it doesn't matter now.
- [21:54]
Josh Brown
Well did.
- [21:54]
Scott Wapner
I'm not saying it matters. I'm asking you guys, does it matter?
- [21:57]
Josh Brown
Didn't they do this in 2017? Small caps aren't keeping up. Didn't they do it in 2019? You still had plus 30% years for the S and P. In those years did you have small cap participation every year that you had an S and P double digit rally? No. You didn't get over it?
- [22:12]
Scott Wapner
No. But I'm talking about that like you know, Palantir's done well. The Ark innovation funds at a 52 week high. Ish. You bought more DraftKings. DraftKings is up 14% in a month.
- [22:24]
Kevin Simpson
It's great when you can have these mid cap small cap names ride the coattails but I mean your true investment are in the large cap. It's fun to get into some of these smaller names. We bought DraftKings to your point, it's up 14%. I like the momentum but this is like a dual opoly. They have 80% of the market share combined with the other name, DraftKings. Fandel Fandel.
- [22:44]
Josh Brown
Thank you.
- [22:46]
Kevin Simpson
So 80%. You've only got 25 states so far for DraftKings. Plus D.C. missouri might be opening up but there's such a potential there. So I really like the space and I think it's fun to own some of these names. But that's not where you make your investment. You make your investments in large.
- [23:00]
Scott Wapner
Speaking of large. Well, okay, speaking of that good segue back to Brin for a move. And you alluded to this yesterday when you were with us or the day before? I can't remember. You were on the last couple of days talking about different stocks. Tesla, you did buy more as you said you were going to. Yeah, it was on Monday. You bought it at 293. You sold the August 320s and collected $14.50. Why is now the right time to make that trade?
- [23:29]
Bryn Talkington
I think Kevin should do that. Trade too, or should have. Well, so I think that was the day American party.
- [23:34]
Josh Brown
Right.
- [23:36]
Bryn Talkington
That was the day his American politics hardy announcement came out. And so I just thought that I was surprised once again that everyone was surprised that he would do something like this. And I thought it was an overreaction. So I'm happy to own the name below 300 and the call premium so high. So if it gets called away in August, which is six weeks away, I'll have made 14% in six weeks. If not, it'll lower my cost basis on this new trade by 14 points. So I think it was a win win either way. I'm comfortable trading this name. I feel like that 2502-62-35036 is the range and it's so big. So it's just a great opportunity to buy the name, sell some calls and if it gets called away, it was a good short term.
- [24:15]
Josh Brown
Just loves the smoke. She likes that. I think you like, I think you're addicted to the drama here. Can I just, can I do like a very thing.
- [24:23]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, go ahead because.
- [24:24]
Josh Brown
All right.
- [24:25]
Scott Wapner
Uber was reiterated neutral by Ives.
- [24:29]
Josh Brown
Yeah, I'm going to call him later.
- [24:31]
Scott Wapner
And Tesla was reiterated underweight at Wells.
- [24:35]
Josh Brown
Right. So I was. This is the only stock Ives and I disagree on and he's, he's, he's made his bed with like the Tesla call. And I understand that he's more bullish on Tesla and Uber's gone up a lot more. So maybe tactically he might get this one right. You know, I don't, I don't have as good a handle on Tesla as he does. I just point out Tesla's -25% this year. Uber, Uber's -60 total return for the last three years. Uber is now better than Tesla up 328%. Tesla up 31. But then the five year is where Tesla has still been the better stock obviously the more exciting stock. But like the more time goes on, the more people are starting to recognize that not every business Tesla decides they're going to get into do they become as dominant as they did on the evidence EV side. And they're not even as dominant on the EV side that most people would have said they were 18 months ago. Even so I think that's where the street is starting to wake up to this. I think there's a world in which both Tesla and Uber make a lot of money and do very well in robo taxis. But I have to be honest with you, the cost for Tesla to scale up its own network with no partners and the amount of time toward payback is like an incredible dollar figure. And in Uber's case, they can add EVs to the network right now and it cost them effectively. Nothing might even save them money relative to the take rate of human drivers. You're telling me you think Tesla is better positioned than Uber for autonomous driving? Like how? Like literally tell me how. And I'm sure Dan has a great answer to that, but I haven't heard it.
- [26:11]
Scott Wapner
All right, so we're going to take a break. We do have moves coming up. Kevin's got one, Jason's got one, and Josh Brown has a new name on his best stocks in the market list. It just popped onto his radar. It'll be on yours in just a little bit.
- [26:36]
Bryn Talkington
As a salesperson, the search for the.
- [26:38]
Edward Jones
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- [26:42]
Bryn Talkington
Hoping they're ready to buy.
- [26:43]
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Bryn Talkington
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Edward Jones
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Bryn Talkington
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- [28:37]
Scott Wapner
All right, welcome back. Let's talk Costco. The real headline here is that their US core comps came in light 5.5% versus the estimate of 6. JP Morgan still reiterates overweight. It's probably why the stock is modestly lower today. Not horrible, but a miss nonetheless. Jason, snipe you on the name.
- [28:57]
Jason Snipe
Yeah. And we got our June sales the other day which were up 8% which broke a five month streak of decelerating sales growth. So for me, this is a company that manages their cost very well. They got the annuity stream and membership income. They are catering to the higher end of the consumer base. So I continue to like this despite the news that we saw this morning.
- [29:17]
Scott Wapner
Carlyle upgraded to buy at Citi today. Price target to 65 from 44. We can take a look at that. So it's way past the 44. Obviously they think it's going to 65. That's a 52 week high today from Carlyle. And that's your name, Josh Brown.
- [29:37]
Josh Brown
Yeah, look, this is, this is one of the best globally, one of the best private investment platforms that exist. I've talked about Harvey Schwartz before on the show. I think he's somebody who understands where the industry is going, where the next generation of wealth, how they want to invest, what, what vehicles will be needed. And I think these stocks are generally pretty pro cyclical. So when you get a bull market in traditional stocks and bonds and you get the IPO window reopens and people feel better about deal making, these are all the preconditions you need for private equity. Names like Carlyle's Rally. And that's the, that's the setup right now this summer.
- [30:14]
Scott Wapner
So you don't like when private equity weighs in on market concentration, but you like when there's an upgrade to the stocks.
- [30:20]
Josh Brown
I mean, tell, I'm just telling you, if you're trying to sell interval funds to people, you have to convince them to do something other than Nvidia Apple.
- [30:26]
Scott Wapner
I couldn't resist. Apollo Target raised to 170, BRIN, KKR target to 160. You have both.
- [30:35]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, I mean, I think like Carlyle, these stocks have all been really good performers over the past three and five years. We do a lot of private investments, but we don't think private equity in general is a great asset class for profit private clients because you have like a 15 year journey. There's a ton of dry powder. But all of these companies, especially Apollo and kkr, are raising new funds. We know we're going to get those management fees for sure, incentive fees in the future. And so I think owning Apollo and KKR Carlyle as well is a better way for private clients than just owning a bunch of private equity that you don't have any liquidity in.
- [31:10]
Scott Wapner
All right. McDonald's upgraded to buy today at Goldman Sachs Sachs. 345 is the price target. Kevin. They like the snack wrap returning and they say they believe MCD ultimately has the scale marketing digital advantage to successfully navigate the environment.
- [31:27]
Kevin Simpson
I think the price target's a little generous. You know, we've seen so many times where we get a 323, 30, 340 price target. McDonald's over the years and it stalls at 300.
- [31:35]
Scott Wapner
Generous is like stocks at 300 bucks.
- [31:38]
Kevin Simpson
It's always 300. And I say that as a shareholder. I mean, it's. It's hard to get off that. But what I do agree with in the note is the digital scaling. They have 150 million active users in their website into their honor system award system. They're trying to get to 250 million. That's really, I think the gem in there for them to get to that, to that 345.
- [31:58]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Do you think JP Morgan is too generous when it comes to Caterpillar and the target, which just went to 475 from 395. It stocks at 410.
- [32:07]
Kevin Simpson
No, not at all. I think this is a real gem, a real hidden diamond in the rough. When you're talking about like a sneaky AI play from a data center standpoint.
- [32:16]
Scott Wapner
Sneaky is it Stock's been like at a high.
- [32:18]
Kevin Simpson
We think of it as. We think of it as an industrial play, but I'm talking about from it in like literally building the data centers so you get a spillover effect there. Josh talked about financials earlier. I think there's a way you can play industrials. That's why these sectors are going up with it. I totally agree with the target.
- [32:32]
Scott Wapner
Okay, sorry. Chevron maintained by BofA. 170 price target. Josh, you own it.
- [32:38]
Josh Brown
Yeah. So I first bought it right before the Rose Garden tariff debacle. So I was down 18% in the stock, like in literally minutes. I couldn't believe my timing. But I did add to it during the month of April and it looks much better today than it looked then. But I didn't understand the sell off in the stock. Fundamentally, it made no sense to me and I guess it didn't to the rest of the market because it has, it has recovered. But I still, you could see there's still plenty of room. But I think the story here is always going to be a total return story. It's a massive buyback. It's a huge dividend. It's, it's not the sexiest business in the world, but it is, I think, the best run version of a large oil company. And it's a part of a portfolio. It's not the focus of my portfolio, but I'm here.
- [33:26]
Scott Wapner
All right. Pippa Stevens has our headlines today. Hi, Pippa.
- [33:28]
Bryn Talkington
Hey, Scott.
- [33:29]
Edward Jones
Israel is warning that it will strike.
- [33:31]
Bryn Talkington
Again if it's threatened by Iran.
- [33:33]
Edward Jones
At an Air Force graduation ceremony today.
- [33:35]
Bryn Talkington
Defense Minister Israel Katz said if Tehran tries to harm the country, it will.
- [33:39]
Edward Jones
Respond with greater force.
- [33:42]
Bryn Talkington
A hearing is set to begin in.
- [33:43]
Edward Jones
The next hour where a federal judge.
- [33:45]
Bryn Talkington
Will consider a request from from Kilmar.
- [33:47]
Edward Jones
Abrego Garcia to avoid deportation before his federal smuggling trial begins.
- [33:53]
Bryn Talkington
Lawyers for Abrego Garcia, who was mistakenly.
- [33:55]
Edward Jones
Sent to El Salvador, are asking for.
- [33:58]
Bryn Talkington
The government to bring him to Maryland.
- [34:00]
Edward Jones
To await his trial on Monday. Federal prosecutors said the government plans to.
- [34:05]
Bryn Talkington
Deport Abrego Garcia, which would deny him.
- [34:08]
Edward Jones
A chance to defend himself.
- [34:10]
Bryn Talkington
And new details emerging about the disciplinary action taken speaking at the Secret Service after the assassination attempt against President Trump.
- [34:17]
Edward Jones
In Butler, Pennsylvania last year.
- [34:20]
Bryn Talkington
NBC News reporting that six people were suspended without pay or benefits, which included.
- [34:25]
Edward Jones
Agents in supervisory roles as well as line level agents.
- [34:29]
Bryn Talkington
Scott, back to you.
- [34:30]
Scott Wapner
All right, Pippa, thank you. Steve is up next. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market list. He's going to highlight a new name. Might not have heard that much about. He'll tell you more next.
- [34:43]
Edward Jones
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- [35:59]
Scott Wapner
Carl, we told you Josh Brown has a new name to add to his best stocks in the market is ticker symbol ANSS. Yes, it hit a 52 week high today. Talk to me.
- [36:11]
Josh Brown
Yeah, so this is a name that I don't think I've ever heard mentioned on the show Ansys. A lot of people know Autodesk. We're talking about computer assisted design. But Ansys specifically is like the world leader in simulation. So in order to develop any product, you have to take a lot of risk out out. Before you put, you know, millions, hundreds of millions, billions of dollars of investment capital on the line, you have to simulate what's going to happen to that product under a range of conditions depending on what you're doing. Are you doing semiconductors? Apple and Qualcomm turn to Ansys for their help to simulate during the development of the 5G chips. Are you doing EVs Lucid? When they were developing the Lucid Air Luxury, EV turned to Ansys for help with simulation. So that's what this business is about. It's a niche, but they own their niche. And I want to pull back to a little bit of a longer term chart here because I really like setups like these. This is a stock that made a new high in 2021 like every other software stock and it has since spent the last four years. There you go in a huge consolidation. The thing is, the business is a much bigger, better business today than it was the last time this stock was approaching the $400 level. Company has gone from 496 million in operating earnings back then five years ago to 717 million last year. EBIT per employee is now 121,000. This is a better gross margin situation than Autodesk. But also ServiceNow, Workday, Datadog, a whole list of software software companies that have a higher valuation. So Ansys right now is really interesting. It's clearing near term resistance. I think as it approaches 400 might be another wave of resistance from those old highs. But assuming the fundamentals hold up and the earnings reports continue to come in the way they have, I think the stock could clear it on a risk management basis. Judge I'd be looking at that 350 as my pivot point. That's the bottom of the gap. Higher after the last time they reported. If it can hold 350, I think you want to stay long. If it breaks below, make other arrangements. All right.
- [38:20]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. We have more moves coming up from the committee. Another one from Kevin, another one from Jason. We'll tell you about it next. Let's do more moves. Kevin Simpson bought more Merc. Why did you do that?
- [38:49]
Kevin Simpson
Real quick refresher. We had stopped out of the position last year in the 1002s. We added a little bit last month in the mid-70s. We thought the acquisition yesterday of Verona Scott was the right move. For them to be making these types of big acquisitions is what they need to do if they want to replace Keytruda. And it's possible that this new COPD drug can be a $4 billion product between now and 20.
- [39:10]
Scott Wapner
I see a little dose of red on the, on the left. Can we throw that back up, please? But give me like a two day. Did the market not like, was it down on the deal or.
- [39:21]
Kevin Simpson
No, it was up nicely yesterday and we bought it as a result of that. I mean, I think this is something where you've got a company that's trading at a 9 multiple with a 4% dividend. They're showing that they can get into the acquisition business and without that, there's no hope for them.
- [39:33]
Scott Wapner
Stock's up 5% this week. Okay. So it likes the deal and you like it. I do. You sold Lowe's?
- [39:38]
Josh Brown
I did.
- [39:38]
Scott Wapner
How long you own that for? A long time, right?
- [39:40]
Jason Snipe
A couple years, yeah.
- [39:41]
Scott Wapner
Why did you sell it now?
- [39:42]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, I know. So, I mean, the stock's down 6%. I think, you know, coming into the year with a little bit, you know, more bullish on the housing trade. I think the trade is more on the builders than it is the do it yourself names.
- [39:55]
Josh Brown
Right.
- [39:56]
Jason Snipe
So slight miss on the top line, you know, over the last quarter, slight, slight beat on the bottom, you know, and they have been doing better in the pro segment, but for US is down 6. Home Depot is down 3. I just think to just this point earlier, directionally, kind of what's going on, rates. Even if we stay flat, we know that the Fed owns a lower end of the curve. The 10. The 10 year definition is the real proxy.
- [40:21]
Scott Wapner
No, but don't you think, I mean, the reason I ask you, I guess with. In the manner in which I do, you don't think the worst is in the housing trade. It's like seen the worst. And now you're going to sell it now?
- [40:35]
Jason Snipe
Well, I think to my point earlier, I think it's the builders are going to be the real recipients when this thing turns. It's the Dr. Hortons, the Polti groups, the Toll Brothers. Those are the names that I think are going to get the balance. I think the do it yourself names come later. So we're going to be patient here. We're out of it now, but we'll look at it maybe late fall into the, into the winter months as a potential return to the portfolio.
- [40:59]
Scott Wapner
I got you Santola. He's next with his midday word right after this. We're back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santol. He's with us on the desk. I'd love your opinion on the conversation we had at the top of the program about concentration in the market.
- [41:36]
G
Sure.
- [41:36]
Scott Wapner
Josh. Making the argument that people are making way, way too much of it, that it's just not the big deal that some want it to be.
- [41:42]
G
I don't think it's a big deal in terms of it being this massive looming risk in itself. It's obviously reflective of what's going on. It's where a lot of the earnings growth is. What's interesting, too, is this week the market is doing its best to actually try and rectify it a little bit. If you look at what's happening, the s and P500 has been sort of staying out of the way these very small ranges on a daily basis. But again, The Russell's up 70, 80 basis points today. Its growth into value has been the rule. It's been mega cap into equal weight at least for a few days. I mean, it doesn't change the overall picture. But I do think that's interesting in the market, again, is trying to get out of this sort of overbought, we, we come a long way in three months type of a situation by rotating its way around it. That's the most absolute benign way this could go. Obviously could get sloppy. From here. I'm looking at some of the things like the infrastructure names that were somewhat crowded like Vertive is down a lot today. It's on this Amazon headline about our power solution, but it's taking some other stuff with it and some software is getting a little bit sloppy. So the question is, you know, again, can we just have this elegant, harmonious rotation where we pass the money around the market and let it cool off, or is it going to be something worse in terms of the, again, the concentration side of it? I think you just have to know what you own and how it's going to move. You know, we have so many of these things where it's like all these winning streaks we've had in the S&P 500 first time in X number of years. And also so many times when you have negative breadth and a positive index or vice versa, that's just telling you that we have a concentrated market and the index just essentially is an instrument of that on a, on a daily basis. Again, maybe this is a ceiling for concentration. Top 10, 40%. It has been worse though if you go in the distant past 50s. In the 50s and 60s, yeah, it was GM and AT&T and IBM, but it was, you know, it was a similar situation where it was very top.
- [43:37]
Josh Brown
The reason there's always concentration is because bull markets are always based on a wave of innovation. That's right.
- [43:43]
Kevin Simpson
Yeah.
- [43:43]
Josh Brown
And this one's no different. And that's just how it's going to be. You can get over it or you keep reading white papers on. Yeah, on max.
- [43:52]
G
The earnings revisions actually are kind of supportive of that still, even though your earnings growth should broaden out a little bit, it hasn't happened in a very pronounced way.
- [43:59]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. I'll see in a couple of hours. On closing bell, that's Mike Santoli. Coming up, Bitcoin breaking another record. We'll get the committee strategy coming up. We're back. Bitcoin hitting a new record high today. It's above 112 and a half thousand dollars. Brin. Looks like we had a breather and then what might now be another breakout.
- [44:45]
Bryn Talkington
Not surprising, right? We're risk on the NASDAQ's doing well. It makes all the sense in the world that bitcoin would do well. I think what's interesting right now is more on the Etherium side and whether it's right or wrong, we're going to continue to get companies like Robinhood tokenizing strategies that are illiquid or liquid, what have you. And those are built right now. They're going to be built pretty much on the Ethereum theory ecosystem. And so I think if you were looking to add actually like a theorem here because it's really been a dog relative to bitcoin over the past few years. And so I think as that gets some legs, I think Etherium could actually play a little bit of a catch up to Bitcoin.
- [45:23]
Scott Wapner
Josh, what do you think?
- [45:25]
Josh Brown
Yeah, look, I think Salon is more interesting than Etherium, but I could understand the bull case for owning both because if Robinhood's kicking down the door with the tokenization announcement and they're building that on Arbitrum, which is a layer 2 above Etherium. But if we're heading into this tokenization era more generally, Solana is going to be the one. In my view. They have the highest throughput for transactions and it's not even close. Other people will come up with level twos that maybe level the playing field somewhat. But if you really want to tokenize assets, you're going to do it with Solana. And from that perspective, that one's a lot more interesting to me.
- [46:02]
Scott Wapner
All right, we'll do finals next.
- [46:15]
Josh Brown
Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [46:29]
Scott Wapner
Got a good lineup for you. Three o' clock today, closing bell, Dan Greenhouse, former Fed Governor Rich Clarida. Dan Ives is going to talk about Apple and you want to miss, you don't want to miss that conversation. Malcolm Etheridge, he's a shareholder. And then the Calamos CEO John Kadunis will be here as well. We look forward to that conversation too. Bryn, what's your final trade today?
- [46:49]
Bryn Talkington
AbbVie. It's a name I'm looking at to get back into thinking. Break above 197. I think it marches towards its all time high.
- [46:55]
Scott Wapner
That seems to be a popular name among the committee. Who's got Boeing?
- [47:00]
Kevin Simpson
I have Boeing, Scott. Okay, this is no longer a turnaround story. It's a legit recovery. Max orders are up and the backlog is unbelievable.
- [47:07]
Scott Wapner
Oracle.
- [47:09]
Jason Snipe
Oracle, that's me. I really like this Stargate project. That's a big deal. Hang on to this one.
- [47:14]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, we've been talking about that's in that group. Air stocks that just continue to run. And then finally, Joby Aviation is having a nice day today.
- [47:20]
Josh Brown
Josh Brown, Nice, nice couple of weeks up at 30% since I first mentioned on the show. The stock continues to have great headlines.
- [47:28]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. I'll see you in a couple of hours on the Bell. The exchange begins now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:44]
Edward Jones
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the halftime report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full halftime report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.