
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate what Kevin Warsh's tenure as Fed Chair will mean to the market and your money. And later, we discuss whether AI is affecting dividends and whether those stocks are investable anymore. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Donald Trump
So I promised to cut 10 old regulations, as you know, in my first term, for every new regulation. If you put a new regulation, and that's fine, but you had to do, you had to cut at least 10. And so far this and I did that. It was actually 1 to 12. So I did a little bit better. And so far we're blowing it away this year. So far it's one for 129. In other words, we're cutting 129 regulations that we put in. So that's music to your ears. We don't even have to go through Congress for that. You know, it's a lot easier if I do it. It's a lot easier. But all of these actions are aimed at lowering costs, creating jobs and driving economic growth. Jobless claims recently hit the lowest level since 1969. Under our leadership, 5 million people have been lifted off of the food stamps. Think of that. Under just in a short period of time, more Americans are working today, as I said, than ever than ever before. And very importantly, 100% of the net new jobs under this administration have been created in the private sector, which is a number that nobody has ever achieved. Think of that. They're all in the private sector. And we did get rid of a lot of government jobs. You had jobs where there were 10 people for every single job and every single event. And they were doing all the same thing, or they weren't doing very much and they didn't like me for a while. And now they're all working at private sector jobs and they're making double, triple, quadruple the pay and they're loving life and they're loving going to work. And it was a painful experience cutting that many people from the federal government, but it was. It's been amazing. And, you know, you just can't have that. You can never make a country, as I say, great again if you're going to have all government jobs, we're all private jobs, and the jobs are coming. We're building more plants, more equipment than anybody has ever, any president's ever done, any administration has ever done. And the number I like the best is we have $18 trillion being invested in the United States for 11 months, not 12. We haven't gotten the results from 12 yet. We're pretty new. But in 11 months, we have $18 trillion being invested with a T being invested in the United States. And the record was $3 trillion many years ago by a different country that I actually just left. It starts with a C, but we have. And that was three. And we're at $18 trillion. We're building factories, car plants, everything AI, everything all over the country. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. But, and I have to say, I have to give the, the credit to what used to, I used to say was my favorite word, my favorite word of all. But I got in such trouble because when I said tariff is my favorite word, the media went crazy. They said, what about your wife, your family? What about God? What about religion? So I said, okay, good. I'll make it my fifth favorite word. Right? But because of tariffs, we have tremendous amounts of. I mean, the car companies are all coming back. They left us for 35, 40 years. They left us chip. We will have 50% of the chip making capability of who that man right there is. Don't stand up, will you, please? But is that right? We're going to have 50% by the time I leave office, and maybe more than that. They're moving in from Taiwan, they're moving in from other places, and they're building in Arizona in particular, in that particular case. But between the auto plants, we have more auto plants under construction now than we've ever had before. We went many years and there was no plant built. And it's all due to what we did with tariffs, I guess, November 5th, but all because of the tariffs and what they've done, used properly, used judiciously. So it's really something special. So we have all this, all these plants under construction. They'll be completed over the next year and a half. And you're going to see numbers like we've never seen in this country before. No country has ever seen the kind of numbers you're going to see. And we have some of the people in this room, I look at them, some of the geniuses that are building those plants. You know, a plant used to cost, if you built a shopping center, it would cost $50 million is a nice center, but $500 million is a giant, beautiful center. These people are investing. You're going to have to look in $50 billion on a building for AI. 50 billion. It's. I say, how big is it? Well, it goes three miles by five miles. You drive three miles, five miles. But it means jobs. And it's got tremendous potential for a lot of things. But when you talk about growth, no country will see, and you'll start to see that very soon. No country will see the growth that we're going to experience and that we're already experiencing, but that we're going to experience. And one of the things that you see early on is we have the highest number of construction jobs we. We've ever had. And that's because they're building all of these plants, auto plants, all of these plants are being built, including medical. Medical is pouring back in. Eli Lilly and so many of the. They're building six major plants. They're going to make almost all of their medicines here. We learned during COVID it's not good to be held hostage by foreign countries. We're building all of these plants here, Lilly, Pfizer, all of them. They're all building tens of billions of dollars worth of medical plants. We're going to have almost all of our medicines made in our country, which is a really good thing to have. During four years of Biden, our country secured less than $1 trillion. Think of that, though. And we're doing $18 trillion. And everyone's talking about that because nobody's ever seen anything like it. In a short time ago. And I say this often. The king of Saudi Arabia said to me two years ago, he said, I was over there, and by the way, they invested $2 trillion. But I was over talking to him, getting them to invest a lot of money in our country. And he said, you know, President, two years ago you were a dead country, and today you're the hottest country anywhere in the world. We're the hottest country anywhere in the world. And we're going to need guidance, and you're going to give us that guidance. But all of the things that we've done, numbers that have tripled and quadrupled, and we do need, we need a really steady hand at probably, maybe in many ways the most. I don't know. I have two great justices of the Supreme Court here, so I have to say I don't know which is more important, being a justice of the Supreme Court or your job. I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure. I think I'd rather be a justice. Between you and I, it might be easier. You're going to find out. You'll be saying that that's a very easy job. With the support and strong and wise chairmanship at the Federal Reserve. So important, America's future will truly be unlimited. With Kevin. With Kevin at the helm, and he's off to an incredible start with his family, with his education, with his background, with all of the things he's done. He's respected by everybody. So important is to have that level of respect where you can walk into a room and. And people will listen to you, as opposed to walking into a room and not having that kind of Persona. He has a Persona like nobody else. So I just want to say congratulations, Chairman Warsh. You are really a special person in getting this job. The people that wanted this job, the most highly trained, highly educated, some of the greatest credentials I've ever seen. And as far as I'm concerned, nobody was even close. And I just want to congratulate you. And I'd like to ask, if I might, Jane, to step forward. And our very highly respected Justice Clarence Thomas to come up and swear in. Give him a good oath, if you would care. Because we, Clarence, we need a really good oath delivered here. Okay, thank you very much. Thank you.
Kevin Warsh
I do solemnly square.
Kevin Warsh, do you solemnly swear.
That I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States.
That I will support and defend the
Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
Against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
That I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same.
That I will bear true faith and
Financial Analyst/Commentator
allegiance to the same.
Kevin Warsh
That I take this obligation to.
That I take this obligation freely.
Without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion.
Without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion.
And that I will well and faithfully discharge.
And that I will well and faithfully
discharge the duties of the office on which I'm about to enter.
The duties on the office upon which
Financial Analyst/Commentator
I'm about to enter.
Kevin Warsh
So help me God.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
So help me God.
Kevin Warsh
Thank you, Mr. President. This is above and beyond. It is such an honor for Jane and me to have this ceremony here in the East Room with you, sir. I couldn't ask for a more Beautiful setting or more gracious welcome, and I am grateful. I recognize, as the President said, that ours is a time of great consequence. It's also a great honor for me to have the oath of office administered by one of the great and longest serving public servants, a brilliant and independent thinker, a man dedicated to our Constitution, and no less important, a joyful and collegial presence on our highest court, my esteemed friend, Justice Clarence Thomas. Now Justice Kavanaugh is here as well. We served as young staffers a full generation ago in this building, and I shouldn't be speaking for another justice. But I will tell you something that I always felt that Justice Kavanaugh and I felt the majesty of this place where we're now sitting. And we counted ourselves blessed and grateful to serve the nation we love and to do it in your building, sir. And of course, I must thank Leader Thune, Chairman Tim Scott, and his fellow members of the Banking Committee who saw me through the Senate confirmation. My whole family and I are joined by many others here today who I'm honored to call friends and colleagues, mentors, confidants. Their presence means a lot to me, and I think it means a lot to the President, too. It's the honor of a lifetime to be called back into public service. And with this oath, I've accepted a high and solemn responsibility. At the swearing of Alan Greenspan at this very place in 1987, President Ronald Reagan called the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve a quote, great role in American life. I've known five of my predecessors in this job, some of them quite well, but Chairman Greenspan was the first to tell me and show me what this role demands. He recently marked his 100th birthday, and although he can't be here, I'm thinking about him today, too. Like Alan, I intend to fill the role of Chairman with energy and purpose, just the way Chairman Greenspan did, faithful to the mission and the very best traditions of the Fed. As you demonstrate, Mr. President, every day, energy and purpose are how big obstacles are overcome. Your greatest ambitions are for America, for what free people can achieve when they have the chance. And while I'm not naive about the challenges we face, I believe, Mr. President, these years can bring unmatched prosperity that will raise living standards for Americans from all walks of life. And the Fed has something to do with it. Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment. When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take home, pay higher, and America can be more prosperous and no less important, America's place in the world more secure. To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, both escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance. Today marks a return to an institution that I do, in fact, cherish. It was nearly a generation ago, at another time of great consequence, that I worked with some outstanding public servants at the Fed, both here in Washington and at the Reserve Banks. My goal now is to create an environment in in which the best people can do their life's best work and to face every challenge in the spirit of common purpose and devotion to the national interest. In a word, to excellence. These duties are now mine, Mr. President, because of the trust you have placed in me. I accept them with gratitude and will strive every day to serve our fellow citizens well. And in final, I'll just say I'm going to look around and try to hold on to this special moment. But after we leave this stage, the real work begins. So let's begin that work. It's an honor. Thank you again, Mr. President.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
The 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, officially sworn in in the East Room of the White House. With Mr. Warsh saying, this is the honor of a lifetime, a high and solemn responsibility and one I intend to fill with energy and purpose. The President calling Warsh no one better prepared to lead the Fed. I believe he'll go down as one of the best Fed chairs ever. And answering a question many are asking, what does all of this mean for Fed independence? Moving forward to that, the President said, I want to Kevin, to be independent. Don't look at me, said President Trump. Do your own thing. A room certainly full of very well known people. To this audience you had the former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, singled out, of course by the President, a couple of Supreme Court justices and many leaders from business and industry there, as well as Kevin Warsh becomes the 17th chair of the Fed. I welcome you to the Halftime report. I want to tell you the markets are reacting well to this news today as the President himself singled out at the very top. That means they like you, said President Trump. You see, the Dow is good for about 3/4 of 1%, 50,662 the S&P 500 taking back just about at least trying to get there 7,500. The investment committee is here with me today. Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington. Also with us at Post 9 is CNBC Senior economics writer Matt Peterson. And it's a pleasure to have you on our program for the very first time. Welcome.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Fun day to be here.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
I'm wondering what you made of both of what now Fed Chair Warsh said along with the president.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Well, I think we saw a pretty historic transfer of power not just from Jay Powell to Kevin Warsh, but also from from President Donald Trump to Kevin Warsh. Trump's influence over the Fed has grown and grown and grown as he's had the chance to make this decision and as he's been able to come after the Fed in lots of different ways. And now he's handing it off. He's giving Kevin Warsh the chance to do whatever Kevin Wash is going to go out there and do. And now it's really up to him.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
He comes at a time where there are some enormous challenges on the table ahead of him. Inflation is obviously moving in the wrong direction. Got another read on consumer confidence today which seems to be going in the wrong direction as well. The 10 year yield, the highest on the swearing in date of any chair going all the way back to alan Greenspan in 1987. He enters a divided and hawkish Fed. We learned yet again today of how hawkish this Fed has moved. Hearing from Governor Waller this morning, said his views to hold rates at current levels on concerns about inflation, that he could even support support a hike if expectations become unanchored. I'm wondering what you make of those challenges that lay before Fed Chair Warsh.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
I think those are big challenges and they're real. That said, I think Kevin Wash is putting the Fed on notice that the way of doing business that we've all gotten used to is going to change. He said he's there to reform the Federal Reserve. He did not talk about interest rates. Right. He is coming in with a big mandate, as he sees it, to change the way the Fed thinks about inflation. We even heard from the President that forward guidance is going away. Right. Do you really think that that's going to stick around after it's come out of Trump's mouth, after it's come out of Bush's mouth too?
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
I'm glad you went there. He said, and I quote, I will lead a reform oriented Fed, as some speculate on what those reforms will be. Will he use different gauges of inflation unlike what, you know, decades worth of central bankers have in terms of, you know, CPI and ppe and, and of course what we always say is the Fed's favored measure, the PC he's intent, you think, on dramatically reducing the balance sheet. What will he do to the communication structure that many of us who do the jobs we do have come to rely on to get a really good handle on how the current Fed is thinking.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Well, for one thing, we may hear from him less. When he went through his nomination hearing, he notably did not commit to holding President press conferences every time the Fed made a decision. He has talked about, you know, scaling back the Fed's communications in lots of ways. I think these changes are going to be rolled out slowly. You know, I think he's going to show up to the June meeting just like everyone is expecting, and he'll make some incremental changes that will add up over time. Right. I don't think, for instance, he's going to feel compelled to write down a.inthe.plot that we've got coming up soon. Right. So it's not going to be, you know, we're not going to get washed away immediately with change, but the sea level is going to rise slowly over time. As Kevin Wash, I'd love you, love
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
your thoughts too, on the President saying, I know Kevin will be independent. Don't look at me, do your own thing. And then even going a step further, which sort of gives you an idea inside the mind of the President as to how he views an economy that's doing really well, even if in that scenario it spurs a little influence. Inflation, he said the President, economic growth does not mean inflation. When it's booming, let it boom. It gives you a pretty good read on how the President thinks a Fed chair and the Federal Reserve in general should act in times of economic good times. Even if it means a little inflation.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
That's right. I mean, we also heard the name Alan Greenspan invoked there quite a bit. This is all stuff Kevin Wash has talked about quite a bit. He thinks that we ought to take the Fed back to the 1990s when Alan Greenspan famously stood back and did not raise interest rates in the interest of trying to let the Internet revolution, the computer revolution, you know, run on its legs and did that very successfully. Kevin Warsh has explicitly said he wants to do much the same thing, which he's signaling again to the markets, to all of us out here watching that. What he's going to do is he's going to step back and not hike interest rates right away. Right. He's very much opposed to that.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Yeah. Stephanie Link, you know, he, he, the President pointed to the stock market, the reaction, pointing out the number on the Dow and saying that means they, they like you. Is this going to be a market Friendly Fed share.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
We hope so. He is very experienced and not only at the Fed in 2008, the great financial crisis, which was really a crisis, but he's also is an investor working with Stan Druckenmiller for many years.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
That's an important factoid. He, he understands, knows, and he's had a front row seat to one of the goats in this industry, Stanley Druckenmiller.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
So he has to corral the team for sure. You have four dissenters, so he's got to manage through that. I hope that he tells everyone at the Fed they're not allowed to talk intermitting because that is so confusing. Over the last several years, we overheard from these people and just let it lie. Let the date, the details speak for themselves. I don't know, I'm kind of curious actually, if, if you actually think that they'll change the dual mandate, will they change, like, because the dual mandate we know is jobs and inflation. Do they add something? Do they subtract something? Do they re emphasize something else?
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Well, it's a good question. I mean, I think he sees himself as bound by Congress in the way that other Fed chairs have, but he cares a lot about inflation and he hasn't said very much about jobs. Right. So I think we're going to see a very, you know, what would otherwise be a hawkish shift from a Fed that is really focused on exactly how you meet the inflation side of the mandate much more than the job side.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
He noted the dual mandate, of course, in his, in his remarks. Jenny, I'm wondering how, how you think, and I would really ask the same question that I, I asked staff the idea of a markets friendly Fed chair. We often talk and hear from the guests who come on our program. Whether the Fed is your friend or foe, how is his Federal Reserve, Fed chair Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve likely to be viewed on Wall Street?
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
I've been thinking about this a lot and, and where I come out on, do I as an investor, you know, whose livelihood counts on a strong market, Do I want someone to be market friendly? And I don't think I care that much about that. Here's what I care about. I care that he maintains a bipartisan, data driven, thoughtful government agency. In theory, if he does that, that's market friendly because it's good for the United States. It's organized, it's dependable. So I don't really care if he's, you know, hearing Trump say, hey, they like you, you know, like, I don't care. I don't really want him to want to be liked. I just want him to do the job like stay bipartisan, look at the data, make good decisions.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
What about you, Kevin?
Investment Expert Kevin Simpson
No, I'm excited. I think the biggest asset here is that he does understand the markets. But more importantly, I think he understands that credibility is the most important thing. And the biggest asset that the Fed has right now isn't its balance sheet, but its trust. And we're putting someone into this role whether they're market friendly or not. Scott, I think we've got somebody who's market savvy.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Yeah. Matt, he's battle tested too. And I think it's important to remember that wars was in the room where it happened during the crisis of 2008, as he was working with Fed chair Bernanke and had that front row seat into dealing with the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. How do you think that informs him as he takes this job?
Financial Analyst/Commentator
I think that this is a huge part of what he wants to do. You know, he understands that that was the Fed sort of at its greatest, that this time when he was working as Ben Bernanke's right hand guy on the Fed, basically he was the Fed's liaison to the markets at the time and was very well remembered by Bernanke and others. And he thinks that the Fed was, thinks that the Fed has drifted somewhat from the way that engage with the markets and the public since then and has kind of been on autopilot and he wants to really reset and kind of get us back to where he thought he was, where the Fed was at the end of the financial crisis.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
What are the risks of going too far in the kinds of reforms that he wants to make?
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Well, that's the really the tough one. I mean, straightforwardly, we could see inflation get out of hand very quickly. Right. That could be a problem. If he is saying, for instance, we ought not to care what's happening in the energy markets because this isn't the type of thing that the Fed normally ought to get engaged in. And turns out that that view is wrong. That's. That could very quickly come to bite him. You know, we could see him lose the rest of the committee fairly quickly if he is not persuasive in telling them exactly what, you know, why he thinks, what he thinks about the ways that the Fed could change and that could see a diminished chairmanship which would, you know, hurt the Fed's ability to guide the markets.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Bryn, talking to with us of course as well, I'd love your thoughts as you take all this in as well, Brent.
Investment Expert Bryn Talkington
Well, first, that was really fun to watch. You could see what a big moment it was for Kevin, Kevin Warsh. And so how I think about this is we have yet another data point that we're in some, you know, mirror image, some image of the late 90s as obviously we've talked a lot about Alan Greenspan, who was famous for speaking very, you know, very minimal. But when he did speak, he used words on purpose that no one understood. And so I think we're going to go back to a less is more. I also think that we have to separate. The Fed can do nothing about the Strait of Hormuz, and they know that. And so I think that energy prices and the Fed and inflation are somewhat disconnected today because if you really look at when the economy has historically been running hot, you have a lot of lending, you have housing, real estate doing very well. So the Fed will come in and raise rates to slow lending. Well, that is the opposite of what is happening today. And so I think it's going to be interesting that if he focuses on the real economy that actually has been impacted by what they can affect, which is rates, rates, you could actually argue for lowering of rates because you are on this, I think, precipice with so many sectors of the real economy that are suffering from higher rates, that have nothing to do with inflation and aren't impacted. The Fed can impact once again what's happening with oil prices, those straight of Hormuz.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Matt, how difficult do you think it's going to be for, for Kevin Warts to sort of mold this Fed into his understanding of how he wants to this Fed to operate in the future, especially at a time where, as we have already discussed, it's an especially divided Fed, one that feels more divided than I can remember certainly in recent times, to the point where, you know, you have many dissents in the four dissents, I believe in the last meeting, which was the most in in a number of years, he's inheriting a Fed that is not in agreement on not only where the direction of interest rates should be, but the communication of them.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Right. Kevin Wish has a tough job here. And you only need to look at the statement Christopher Waller, one of his new fellow Fed governors, put out today, suggesting that he's open to interest rate hikes. To think that this could be tough. But we also, what we saw from Kevin Warsh was his political skills very much on display there. Right. He, you know, talked at length about his history with Justice Kavanaugh With Justice Clarence Thomas. Right. He, Kevin Warsh is a smooth political operator. That's how he got this job. And you should not underestimate his ability to get in a room with somebody and sway them over to his point of view. I don't think it'll happen right away. I think it's going to take some time. But I think he's at eight and a half years since he was considered for this job last time to think about exactly what he's going to be doing from right now. And he's going to go in there.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
You could hear me, could see it, but you could certainly hear it. And in ways certain, some respects TV is an interesting medium. You could feel it. You could feel the emotion that, that Warsh was, was undergoing as he was accepting the, not only the nomination but after being sworn in and the comments that he made and the way his voice sounded sort of understanding the magnitude of this job. His life has changed.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
Absolutely. But I think he's up for it. He obviously has a lot of, lot of experience like we talked about. I just think, you know, the things I've heard about him when he was at the fed during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis was that we wouldn't have fixed it like we did without him. He was really very instrumental. That doesn't come from me, that comes actually from Gary Cohn from Goldman Sachs who was also in the room at the time too. So to me, I think I take comfort in that. I think that maybe I'm interested in, to see if on the inflation front we have the war. We know that that's inflationary, but we also have this boom which is also inflationary. But at the same time it's going to be productive product. Productivity is going to actually increase and it actually has been increasing. I wonder if he falls on that in terms of being able to lower rates because of this whole technology revolution that we're seeing.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
It's going to be a tough sell. He's definitely going to try to make it. But we've heard a lot from the other members of the, of the FOMC that they're not necessarily ready to make that bet yet. And so it's going to be his job. I mean he's talked about a lot about the kind of data that he wants the Fed to start thinking about and I think that's how he's going to try to get the Fed there,
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
like more forward looking data. Yeah.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Let me just say, you know, as I bring Brin back in, this is also a Unique time, Brent, in that you do have the stock market at record highs. We spend a thousand times more time talking about AI than we do Fed policy these days because that's been the story. He inherits a Fed where it's less today of the story than it's been in the last couple of years. We're so fixated on this boom in artificial intelligence and how it has taken the stock market to a record high. I don't hear people saying, well, the market needs rate cuts or if they, you know, I don't, I don't know how many people take even seriously the idea of a hike. But the Fed is not the first or second or third sentence of talking about the market these days. I had Chris Harvey yesterday on closing Bell talk about why he raised his price target past 8,000. There's a lot of optimism in this room because the economy has reason to be optimistic I earnings. And that's why the stock market is where it is. Warsh knows as well what he's walking into.
Investment Expert Bryn Talkington
I don't think we would be talking about rate cuts unless President Trump and Powell had not, you know, Trump had not been talking about rate cuts so much. So, so I agree with you and I think that I, we talk about it so much and you know, Steph hit on it because AI is everywhere. AI is now overtaking issuance in the investment grade debt market. It is overwhelming the stock market. It is implementing and infiltrating trading every part of the U.S. economy. And so it's everywhere at the same time. And so I think that the impact there, the Fed will start spending more time there because it is just infiltrated stocks, bonds and the real economy. But I do think that because President Trump has been so anchored on those rate cuts is really the only reason we're talking about it right now.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
How ironic to Kevin, Kevin Simpson, that you know, as Kevin War cites, you know, Alan Greenspan and we all of course remember 96 where he makes his famous irrational exuberance comment, which takes four years to get to the rollover in, in the dot com bubble. The irony of course, is that many today are making the analogy back to the late 90s. So Mr. Wash is walking into a period of time too where some are talking about irrational exuberance in this stock market. And I wonder how he will address that fact when he is asked, I can bet you at his very first meeting what he thinks about the market if he believes there is irrational exuberance in parts of this market.
Investment Expert Kevin Simpson
Yeah, he was a little bit early as you mentioned 1996 before we saw the correction. But I don't feel as if we're at any type of irrational exuberance just yet. But I would like to make a comment. Despite Kevin Marsh being sworn in today, Scott, I honestly don't see a path where the Fed can cut rates literally for the next year or two. And I'll be very surprised if we have rate hikes. And I don't see a car, car a cut in the cards. And I'm building my portfolio with that positioning in mind. Like, I think you've got to prepare for inflation being a lot stickier than we want and maybe by doing nothing, maybe that's a cut by proxy, because if we look at the bond market and where yields are right now, we've essentially already had a rate hike. And I don't see what the Fed can do as far as cuts are concerned, at least in the near term.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Jenny, it was Edgardeni today who says that exuberance means may be turning a wee bit irrational. The Fed chair has to deal with the markets. How much it factors into their policymaking decisions is an unknown question for the most part. And we don't know yet what Warsh's view on that is. But it is an interesting time to take the reins of the United States central bank when the stock market has been booming and we're all fixated on
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
this trend right into that. And Adam, crisis at vital knowledge. I thought he framed it really well this morning and he said, look, the Fed's in a lose, lose position. If they cut rates, he's going to lose credit, they're going to lose credibility because there will be the, there will be the lack of independence, perception. If they need to hike rates, they'll have a problem because it could hurt the economy. And what we know from President Trump is we know that he turns on people very quickly. We know that he's fixated on the market. So if, you know, if either of those things caused the market to go down, we could see him turn on Warsh very quickly as the fall man for a market going down. So I think we're in a moment of nicety and everybody's feeling good and enjoying each other. But I can see down the road that this isn't as pretty and kumbaya as it feels. Right now.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
We are growing 4% in the economy having not done anything. Yeah, right. So that's really something that's important to point out. And that has led to better than expected earnings. Earnings grew 27 and a half percent last quarter with revenues up 11% and margins expanding in the face of inflation. That is very, very powerful. And it is broad based in a lot of different sectors. I know the technology sectors have been rewarded and everything else has not, but perhaps maybe we are, we are going to see a catch up trade in some of these other sectors. But the point being is there's so much underlying momentum and it is from, we talk about the, the consumer. We just got a whole bunch of consumer companies that reported earnings this past week and they were actually pretty good. Maybe they were conservative in guidance, but they were actually pretty good. And then the bigger thing is all of this I, the revolution and the, the kind of, the stream of the industries that actually benefit many different sectors that are benefiting across this powerful change. And I think that that is something that's to going, not going away. By the way, a war is not going to change to the AI revolution. It's just not. And on the other side, if you end the war, that might help the consumer.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
Right. And I think that if you get Steph's exact playbook there, plus Kevin's no cut, no cut equals a height or whatever, you know, however that is, maybe then Warsh gets his perfect setup to skate through for a little while without needing to cut or hike and you know, and the market goes up and everything's okay.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Well, Matt, he's going to have to get his arms around the idea of this productivity boom that we are in the midst of and what that's going to mean to the overall employment picture at a time where you've got a number of Americans, what you call it, you know, millions who are potentially worried about the, the impact of AI on their own jobs and how all of that factors into how, how he thinks about policy and half of his mandate.
Financial Analyst/Commentator
Right. We've heard a lot from him about the promise of AI and not very much about what he thinks about all those worries that people have about, you know, whether the robots are coming for their jobs. So he has now essentially made himself the spokesman for AI in this government. Right. He may not think about himself that way, but that is the way that a lot of us are going to look at him. And so he's going to have to get out there pretty quickly and start telling the US a story about, you know, about these worries that people have and why he thinks that the Fed's job is only to help advance and not necessarily to help secure people when they're worried about it.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Our own Becky Quick was one of the observers in the room where all of this happened just moments ago. We'll bring her in now from the North Lawn of the White House. Becky, it's great to have you. If you can just give us your observations for what just happened and what you may have witnessed personally in there.
Michelle Akers
Yeah, Scott, thank you. It's good to see all of you. Look, this was an unusual occasion. The idea that it was here at the White House, that hasn't happened in almost 40 years. And there was some talk about that beforehand, too. The last time that a Federal Reserve chairman was sworn in in the White House was 1987, when Ronald Reagan was the president. This was a rather large event. There were hundreds of people in the room, and as you were watching, you heard the president call, call out. All of the people from government who were there, who we didn't call out were a lot of the business leaders who were there as well. And that was a pretty packed roster as well. If you had been looking around the room, you'd see Dina Powell, who, of course is the the wife of David McCormick, the senator, but she also works at Metta and used to work at the White House in her own right. Dave Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly, was here. Mike Worth from Chevron, also Dan Bartlett from Walmart, Gary Cohn, Ken Langone and and Stan Druckenmiller, who obviously is someone who's very close to Kevin Warsh, had hired him when he left the Federal Reserve to go to Duquesne, his family office. And you know, Stan Druckenmiller is somebody who is somebody who has connections not only to Kevin Warsh, but also to the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, having worked with both of them over the years. So it was well represented by business leaders who were in the room as well. And I think probably the key point that I talked, that I caught, and I'm sure you all pointed out this as well, but when the president said, I want Kevin to be totally independent, don't look at me, he said to them, do your own thing and do your job. And that was probably pretty key. I was trying to look up on my phone at that point to see what was happening with the markets. But that was a very important point for the markets around the globe that we're watching to hear exactly that, particularly again when this was taking place place in the White House for the first time in almost 40 years.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Yeah, it was certainly interesting when the president looked at the market himself, as you all heard in the room, said the level that the Dow was trading and suggested to Kevin wars that means they like you. To which the room obviously laughed. But the President means it because he, as you know, better than most, he uses the stock market, does the President as his own scorecard on how the public views his economic policy. And now Kevin Warsh is going to have a big role in that, Becky.
Michelle Akers
Yeah, and it's a difficult line to walk. Obviously, the President has been very clear about what he would like to see with lower rates. Kevin Warsh is somebody who has always been very focused on making sure inflation doesn't creep up. So at a time when you're watching some of these numbers, it will be an interesting exercise to see how, how he takes all of these things. But again, watching this very closely, seeing what's happening, you're looking at the 10 year right now at 458, watching the 30 year at the highest levels it's been since 2007. These are all things that the markets are watching, but that the White House is also watching very closely as well.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Yeah, no doubt. Well, there will be much to talk about in the days and weeks ahead on Squawk Box with you, Joe and Andrew and otherwise. Becky, thanks for coming out to the camera and sharing some insights with us as we just watched the 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, take that oath. We'll be back after this.
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A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week we're looking at a different object from across American history. We're with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not. But all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a History of the United States in 100 objects on the 99% invisible feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, there's a
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CNBC Host Scott Wapner
We're getting some news that Mackenzie Segalis help has for us out in San Francisco. What are we learning here?
Market Reporter Mackenzie Segalis
Mac Scott, we're seeing Uber shares plunge on a report from Bloomberg saying that they're exploring ways to potentially execute a full takeover of Delivery Hero. That report citing people familiar with the matter. Now this would help it better compete with doordash outside of the U.S. and remember, it was just Monday that Uber disclosed that it had upped its stake in Delivery Hero to 19.5% after buying additional shares in instruments, plus another almost 6% in options. Morgan Stanley has helped Uber rapidly build up that ownership stake using derivatives, according to this Bloomberg report. Now, earlier in the week, Uber addressed this head on and said that it currently had no plans to lift its stake to 30% or more, but it periodically reviews these kinds of investments. What I will also say is that Uber at this point, according to Bloomberg, working with advisors to figure out how to up that ownership even more those shares down around one and a half percent.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Scott okay, Mac, thank you. We'll continue to watch that story share Certainly, you know, moving lower initially coming back quite a bit as as you saw there. Here's another story. I want to talk about dividends, okay. Because it is relevant to interest rates, Jenny, and the fact that they have remained high. I thought the Wall Street Journal's Streetwise column was quite interesting today where they talked about dividends not doing well and that maybe you can blame AI for what they suggest is the strange death of dividends. The dividend yield on The S&P 500 is on the verge of an all time low, just over 1% and only a whisker above the lowest ever in 2000. Even the dividend aristocrats only yield 1.3%. Half the 20 best performing stocks this year don't pay dividends at all. Why is it AI they say excitement about the prospects for the new technology has encouraged companies to plow their profits back into capital spending rather than paying them out to shareholders. So I'm wondering what you think about that.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
So I think it, I think the whole article is just kind of a train wreck and it conflates dividend growth and dividend income. It says the death of dividends, but it misunderstands, like a decreasing dividend yield for the actual amount of Dividends. So to give you some perspective, last year in 2025, the S&P paid out $668 billion of dividends. That's the most it's ever paid. It grew. The dividends grew by 6.2% year over year. Jeremy Siegel does some amazing, amazing work on this and if anyone wants to see it, you can just Google like dividends Wisdom tree. And one of the things that he shows is that over the last 66 years, when you divide up high yielding companies, highest yielding companies into quintiles and lowest yielding companies, you see that over 66 years, actually the highest and high dividend yield, yielders outperform every other group. So this article is really fixated on three years. And we all know that it's been a really extreme three years where you could say, you could take that and say Dividend Aristocrats were terrible versus the S and P. You could take almost anything other than the S and p and the mag7 and the NASDAQ and say it was terrible versus the S& P. So I think it's a very poor time frame to use to give a real look on it for people who really want dividend income. And this is where Kevin and I bump into each other a lot, where Kevin's a little more dividend growth focused, I'm more dividend income focused. But for people who want dividend income, the opportunity is the same as it always was. You were never buying the dividend growth stocks, you're never buying the dividend Aristocrats. They don't have the yield that the market does. And by the way, they never have. Even that yield is wrong. It's not 1.3, it's 2.1%. You can look at an OBL, which is the Dividend Aristocrat ETF. So I thought it was a weird article. I thought it was really misleading and disappointing. If you want dividend income, you can find it.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Sure. But there are, there are plenty of people, I'm sure, plenty of our viewers who, who buy the Dividend Aristocrats etf. But you just mentioned. And the performance is the performance.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
Sure, Scott, but you could say, like you could literally take the S and P. Okay, first of all, you don't
Investment Expert Kevin Simpson
buy an index, right? But also use act.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
And also nobody buys the Dividend Aristocrat index for income. It's just not that much income. You would go and buy like all, you would buy Kevin's funds, you would buy Dow Jones Select Dividend. You'd buy other things with a higher, you know, 3, 3 and a half, 4 or 5% yield. You wouldn't buy dividend scratch. Dividend aristocrats are basically a quality measure. And so those companies have dividends and they've paid them a long time, but they're like 1% yield, 2% yield. So yeah, it was.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
How do you view this, this topic? I bring it up because I feel like it's a, it's a good segue from just talking about a new Fed chair, the rate environment that he is inheriting and how it impacts investors, many of whom are dividend players we know in our universe.
Investment Expert Kevin Simpson
I built my entire firm on dividend growth and I believe that that's one of the most, easiest, best useful ways to hedge against inflation. But when you see an article like this, and we would see them in 1999 almost every day, Scott, the Death of the Value investor and every everything else. So I pulled three names from our portfolio. I don't buy the index, I don't look at the passive funds. But we own Apple, Goldman Sachs and Nico Eagle. These are all dividend growers. Apple's increased its dividend each year over the past five years by just shy of 5%. Goldman Sachs has increased their dividend by almost 22% per year for the past five years. Agnico Eagle almost 20% for the past five years. But forget the dividend. Let's just look at total return. The total return for three years to keep it consistent with the article. Apple's up 80%. Goldman Sachs is up 248%. Agnico Eagle down 22% on the year. So you can take a look at it here. Up 230% in three years. So I wouldn't listen to this for one second and I would focus exclusively on stock pickers.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
I just want to just throw up Goldman one more time just because it's a big fat round number that the stock hit today for the first time ever, by the way, thousand dollars a share. There's a lot of optimism around capital market. It's not an accident in a week that we're talking about, right, Steph? We're talking about Goldman being the lead on the Space X IPO that the stock hits $1,000 a share for the very first time. Capital markets are back. Capital markets are about to roar with these big IPOs that are coming 100%.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
And they said it on their conference calls. Goldman was actually a little more conservative about their pipeline when they reported earnings. Everybody got themselves in a tizzy. At the same time, Morgan Stanley said their pipeline has never been better in terms of IPOs. And so that is absolutely why you own these things. Because you, you have space X, you have anthropic, you have open AI, but then you also have a whole huge group behind them in technology. But also they said, these companies said it's very broad based in terms of what they're seeing. So it's capital markets, it's trading, investment banking, it's all doing quite well for Morgan Stanley. You also have the kicker from wealth management, asset management as well is doing really well. And by the way, the big six banks have $176 billion of buyback announcements. So you know that they're, they've been buying as well. And so maybe we, maybe we'll see some increases in dividends, guys and gals. You never know.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
All right, we'll take a quick break, we'll come back. Kevin's got a couple of moves that I still need to tell you about and we'll do it before we go.
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A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not. But all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States and 100 objects on the 99% invisible feed wherever you get your podcasts.
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CNBC Host Scott Wapner
Bryn, let's get a final trade from you.
Investment Expert Bryn Talkington
AbbVie if it can break above 219 I think it's going to 234.
Investment Expert Kevin Simpson
Kev My trades are Archer, Daniel, Midland, N GE, Vernova, Scott, GE Renova. I've sat next to Stephanie, listened to her talk about it for a year. You can't have data centers without power. I know it's expensive but we think this is a multi year trend.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff Jen.
Investment Expert Stephanie Link
Okay, one of my juicy dividend income stocks Melrose properties with an 11% dividend yield.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
All right, Stephanie Link.
Investment Expert Jenny Harrington
Best day, Lauder.
CNBC Host Scott Wapner
All right, so we will take you through the final hour. I can't wait to do that on closing bell. The exchange begins now.
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the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a History of the United States and 100 objects on the 99% invisible feed. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Special Episode: Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chairman
Host: Scott Wapner, CNBC
Panel: Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington, Matt Peterson (Senior Economics Writer, CNBC), and live updates from Becky Quick
This episode centers on the historic swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The focus is on the ceremony itself, the economic and policy challenges Warsh will face, reactions from markets, and analysis by leading financial experts about what Warsh’s tenure could mean for the Fed’s operations, its independence, financial markets, and the broader U.S. economy.
The episode opens as Donald Trump presides over Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House, a ceremony not held there since Alan Greenspan in 1987.
“No country will see the growth that we’re going to experience and that we’re already experiencing... And with the support and strong and wise chairmanship at the Federal Reserve... America’s future will truly be unlimited. With Kevin... at the helm.” (Trump, 07:40)
Warsh’s oath administered by Justice Clarence Thomas (09:08–10:01): Warsh expresses gratitude and a sense of historic responsibility.
“Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment. When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take home pay higher...” (Warsh, 12:38)
“I want Kevin to be independent. Don’t look at me… Do your own thing.” (paraphrasing Trump, relayed at 17:10)
Challenges facing Warsh:
Panel predictions on Warsh’s approach:
Warsh's ties to Greenspan: Multiple panelists note Warsh’s admiration for 1990s-style central bank policy—let strong growth “run” without preemptive rate hikes (22:22).
“I don’t really want him to want to be liked. I just want him to do the job... stay bipartisan, look at the data, make good decisions.” (24:57)
Live report from Becky Quick at the White House (39:22):
Panel thoughts:
Trump on tariffs and growth:
“Because of tariffs, we have tremendous amounts of... I mean, the car companies are all coming back. They left us for 35, 40 years... We're building factories, car plants, everything AI, everything all over the country...” (06:38)
Warsh on the role’s gravity and mission:
“With this oath, I’ve accepted a high and solemn responsibility… Like Alan, I intend to fill the role of Chairman with energy and purpose, just the way Chairman Greenspan did, faithful to the mission and the very best traditions of the Fed.” (11:49–12:20) “To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, both escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance.” (13:51)
Panel on Fed communication and reform:
“He said he’s there to reform the Federal Reserve. He did not talk about interest rates. Right. He is coming in with a big mandate, as he sees it, to change the way the Fed thinks about inflation.” — Analyst, (19:52)
“He has to corral the team for sure. You have four dissenters… I hope that he tells everyone at the Fed they’re not allowed to talk intermittently because that is so confusing.” — Jenny Harrington (23:40)
On market-friendliness vs. credibility:
“The biggest asset that the Fed has right now isn’t its balance sheet, but its trust.” — Kevin Simpson (25:35)
On the pressure and meaning of the moment:
“You could feel it. You could feel the emotion that Warsh was undergoing as he was accepting the, not only the nomination but after being sworn in… understanding the magnitude of this job. His life has changed.” — Scott Wapner (30:26)
This pivotal episode provides both a front-row seat to a historic Fed transition and a forum for robust debate about the future of U.S. monetary policy. With economic conditions in flux—driven by productivity gains in AI, strong markets, inflation worries, and political crosswinds—Kevin Warsh begins as Chair facing high expectations and a daunting to-do list. The financial community will be watching closely to see if Warsh can deliver “reform and excellence” at the Federal Reserve and, crucially, maintain its hard-won credibility.