
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee are live at the U.S. Open today to talk Markets, the Fed, Golf and more. We are joined by Golf Channel Anchor & Reporter Rich Lerner to discuss the tournament and who he sees winning the Open. And later, Josh Brown spotlights Macom in his "Best Stocks in the Market." Investment Committee Disclosures
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Scott Wapner
AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. And Sarah, thank you very much. Good afternoon and welcome. We are live today from the 126th U.S. open at Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, New York. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Scott Wachter. The wind is blowing, the fog is lifting, the humidity is up, and it is going to be one heck of a test for the best golfers in the world. We'll talk some golf today and of course we will talk plenty of markets. Long Island Zone, Josh Brown and Joe Terranova. They are here with me. The Golf Channel's Rich Lerner will be along in just a little bit as well. This is a spectacular place and we are so happy to be here. We'll show you what the markets are doing. Of course, we are rebounding today following yesterday's Fed fueled sell off. The worst first fed day for any new chair since 1994. But as we said, we do have a nice snapback in the markets today. It's great to have you gentlemen. Thank you here. So that's our big story. Number one today is how the market took the news yesterday. Kevin Warsh's first meeting, his first news conference and the rebound Joe today.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, the rebound real quick on Kevin Walsh. Back in the summer of 2020, I moderated a fireside chat, 90 minutes with Kevin and Scott. I could tell you emphatically he was focused on inflation at that time. He was concerned that we were not pulling back the stimulus enough. So what I heard from Kevin yesterday is consistent. He will zero in on fighting inflation as far as the market this is and it continues to be a momentum driven market. We've talked a lot about that Josh. The 52 week highs, the all time highs, yes it is your memory names, it's your Micron, it is your Seagate, your Western Digital but it's also the financials, it's citigroup at an 18 year high, it's Goldman Sachs, it's Morgan Stanley, it's JP Morgan, it's Broad based and I think that's what's critically important. Momentum is actually outperforming the S and P market cap and the S and P equal weight.
Scott Wapner
This was like a momentary tantrum. It felt like yesterday. It was an undoubtedly more hawkish tilt I think than the market might have been expecting for a wash first meeting and news conference but nonetheless the markets obviously bounced back today. BlackRock's Rick Reeder comments today new era of monetary policy. Bank of America much higher risk that the Fed will hike this year. Wells Fargo was it as hawkish as everyone seems to believe, we're not so sure. Goldman raises the risk of interest rate hikes later this year. Base case is still that they'll leave policy unchanged. Mohamed El Erian told me yesterday right after the meeting that he thought the market overreacted. What do you think?
Josh Brown
Well it absolutely did because they unwound the whole thing less than 24 hours later. So I don't really know who who is doing these trades. It's algorithms, maybe it's some, some pods at some of the big pod shops but the equity market was sort of unfazed by the end of the day and then you just knew they were going to gap them up today, especially in tech. I don't think anyone trading in momentum stocks right now or the AI Capex theme was was put off for more than a second. The 30 year is now down 32 basis points in one month and back to four spot 8 8. The gain in the two year yesterday up 14 basis points was the biggest jump we've seen in the two year bond on a Fed day since the March 2008 meeting. So it was clearly way overboard. I asked my chief market strategist Callie Cox what her biggest takeaways were from what was saying. I think it's the focus on real time data for us. So putting aside the emotions, oh no, they're not going to be transparent. They're not going to do the same amount of forecasting. I really think it's okay. Wait a minute now we're not, we're no longer in a situation where we're going to look at GDP reports that are already three months out of date. We're now going to be harping on things that are much more higher frequency reports, maybe keying more into the Atlanta Fed GDP now stuff. Okay, maybe that's memorable. To Joe's point though, there are a lot of stocks working. I know we're to get in some later. The last thing I want to say on this Judge, I think the better places to be continue to be the takers, not the makers. So we want the companies that are feeding the capex boom. We don't want the companies that are spending the money. That's what the tape is telling us. We don't want the buyers of products, we want the sellers of products. That's what's working and that's what I think will continue to work.
Scott Wapner
Look at what's working today. Once again, it's intel obviously is sort of a special situation up off of the Apple news. But Joe, it's the Micron again and stocks like that, AMD, Broadcom as you mentioned, both are up 4%. So we're kind of right back to what was working for us before.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, and they've become commodities in a sense. They're almost trading like a futures market. And you have to understand the supply to demand dynamic. That's what's so critically important. And when you hear about Tim Cook discussing the potential for Apple to raise prices on the iPhone because of DRAM pricing, you have to understand how challenged right now we are as it relates to memory. Over 70% of memory inventory is allocated towards the data center. And if you look at Micron's inventory, Scott, it is basically sold out through the middle of 2020.
Scott Wapner
Basically like Tim Cook essentially by, by saying what he did about raising prices was arguably the biggest validation in the moment for the memory trade in and
Joe Terranova
of its hundred percent.
Scott Wapner
And if you're sitting here wondering like these stocks went up way too much, way too fast, Tim Cook just told
Josh Brown
you just said they're going to have pricing power for it for at least the next year. And to underscore Joe's point, equal weight tech, this is where the money is being made right now. It's up 38% year to date in total return. That beats the cap weighted tech, the XLK which is 29%. The Qs are up 18, the S&P is up 9. So where are people when we say equal weight tech, what is that? These are the stocks that we talk about pretty much every Time I'm on. We talk about Sienna.
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
Josh Brown
We talk about the memory names, we talk about some of the Asics and chips away from just the typical Nvidia trade. And we talk about optical. And later on in the show today, I'm going to talk about a new name on my best stocks in the market list. And it feeds directly into this trade. I don't want to step on it too much.
Scott Wapner
Micron's target today to 1500. Okay, we're right back to where we were in terms of firms taking a look at the price action in these stocks. And many of them had had the pullback. They had the rebound. Tim Cook comes out, says they may have to raise prices. Not even may that they're going to raise prices. They have no choice. The DRAM ETF is up 152% since April. Micron's target to 1200 at Rosenblatt. They report earnings next Wednesday. That's going to be a pivotal moment. Marvell has been another darling. Right. Target to 385 from KeyBank. Joe, you on that name too?
Mike Santoli
I do.
Joe Terranova
And let's also discuss Corning. It's in the same category as Marvell. It's optical cable. And that is becoming critically important in the build out for the data center itself. Look, this story is not going to change. And Tim Cook basically just told you Micron's not a meme stock. Don't go there with that. Okay. It's a trillion dollar company growing its revenue nearly 200%. And as we move forward, these stocks are going to become more and more integral. Think about the cost in an iPhone. For DRAM, the cost used to be $40. It's now up to $145. So it's warranted. And look for an iPhone 1099 versus 1299. I'm going to pay it. The story continues. For memory. The story continues. Dude, Apple is storage.
Josh Brown
Apple is up. They're talking. So now they're saying, now they're saying this could be like a 200 basis point hit or whatever. The stock is higher.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Well, it's good to be the king, right? With that. There are not that many companies that have the degree of pricing power that they do. And they certainly do. And this shows you that they believe they still do.
Josh Brown
They can get $100 more per device in the full launch of the 18, which I think they can probably do with their eyes closed because of the way they're building it. Standing a couple of dollars to your cell phone companies that probably, I think they'll be able to do it.
Scott Wapner
The two companies that probably have the most degree of pricing power from a consumer standpoint, probably Netflix and Apple, namely two others. Netflix can raise the subscription prices you think people they raise every year. They do it all the time. Apple hasn't really done it all that much. But they're going to prove to you now that they probably can.
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
I put my investment manager hat on, though, and Netflix has been difficult to own for sure. Sure.
Scott Wapner
But that has nothing to do with
Joe Terranova
the level of pricing power, you're correct, the tangible product and the pricing power. It's the there. And Apple in 27 is going to allow me to go back 20 years in time, which I always want to do, and hold in my hand a foldable phone. I'm going to love that experience.
Scott Wapner
Probably going to get that. Let's go to Mackenzie Segala. She has more for us today on Apple, allegedly about to raise prices. Mackenzie, what do we know?
Mackenzie Segala
But Scott, the key here is that Tim Cook didn't give investors the details that they still want, which products get hit when increases start or how big those hikes will be. But he did answer the margin question. Memory prices are up 4x in less than a year. And after Apple posted gross margin just shy of 50% in its most recent quarter, the fear was that this could mark peak profitability if Apple simply absorbed those higher costs. Instead, as you guys have been discussing, Cook said Apple will pass at least some of that on to consumers. Now, a Tech Insights analyst told me that Apple would need to add about $280 to the base price of an upcoming iPhone 18 Pro in order to preserve existing margin. Apple already quietly raised the starting price of the Mac Mini last month. The broader issue, of course, is supply. That makes President Trump's claim of an Apple chip deal with intel especially notable because it points to Apple looking for more ways to diversify its supply chain. But I will say Cook also said in that interview yesterday discussions about China as a memory chip supplier need to be reopened with the government here in the U.S. scott.
Scott Wapner
All right, Mackenzie, thank you very much for that. That's Mackenzie Segalis latest, of course, course from out San Francisco. As you said, okay. Margin headwinds draw drive volume. Even if you raise prices, you're, you're all right.
Josh Brown
Yeah. I think what Apple has figured out is it's not a price increase all the time, but when there is something new and revolutionary about the phone and in this case, I think they would make the case Augmented Siri or Siri AI or however you want to phrase it would justify a higher price. And by the way, if you want the functionality. Everyone's yelling at Apple, where are you on AI? Okay, fine. It costs more, there's more memory involved. This is what it is. I don't really think that anyone looks at this stock and says that they're going to have a problem or they're going to bleed market share to Google devices. Oh, please.
Scott Wapner
We're up on the first tee earlier today and Scotty Scheffler's up there teeing off. We happen to be up there at the right moment. What do you think's in the air? Yeah, predominantly iPhones are the things that are in the air. Trying to get video of his first tee shot of this U.S. open and
Joe Terranova
the creation and the design of that iPhone came from the next CEO, John Ternus. And that's what's going to be so interesting. He comes with a hardware background. I think that's going to be critically important. I actually think the most important dynamic when you think about Apple is maintaining the excellent relationships that Tim Cook had with all political leaders around the world. Tim Cook executed the political environment better than any tech CEO out there. Let's see if John.
Scott Wapner
They all seem to.
Joe Terranova
Well, the catch, they're catching up.
Josh Brown
The setup here is great song to
Scott Wapner
play and they all showed up on the dance floor when they, when they needed to.
Josh Brown
You got a stock that's up 9% year to date, which is not much, but better than a lot of the other mega cap names. And it's got an RSI in the 50s, not overbought, about 6% below its 52 week high. And this stock tends to act well, not necessarily on the heels of a phone launch, but going into one when the chatter is good about demand. And I think in this case you want to be long the name going into that.
Scott Wapner
Let's turn to our big story number three, if you want to call it that. And that would be Space X, which is down again, coming off its first down day as a publicly traded company. Target today goes to 250@Oppenheimer. I did a unofficial survey of our amazing production crew here. If anybody had bought SpaceX, I didn't see a single hand go up. I'm wondering, you know, how the retail investors should be viewing this after some big moves up and then now a couple of days down.
Josh Brown
There are two types of people who have been involved in Space X since it came public, not pre, because that's a lot of tech investors, etc. Since it came public. You have people that believe in Elon Musk and believe in the story and really don't care if the stock is up or down 15% from where they initially purchase it. I don't know how large that population is, but I'm assuming it's probably half to two thirds. It's the other group that you got to talk about here. That other group, they're not buying the stock. They're buying the potential returns of the stock. They want the sizzle, not the steak. The problem is the sizzle's gone. So those people look up and they say, well, I'm in this thing at 140, 150. I probably should have sold some of two. 215 to 10. 205. Okay, you know what? This thing's over. I'll revisit it the next time it's rallying. Those are the sellers today. They're not actually investors. They bought the sizzle. They're not here for the stake. The dust will settle. The people who want the steak, I think, will buy this dip. I wouldn't get terribly afraid of it right here.
Scott Wapner
You have to wait, though, until you get closer or beyond the lock.
Josh Brown
Well, the lockups are going to start earlier than ever. So they're five weeks from the first tranche, five weeks from the first tick. That we're not accustomed to that in this market. We haven't seen it before. They did it with Cerebras, and we haven't even seasoned that IPO yet to be able to make a judgment. And of course, Cerebrus is not space,
Scott Wapner
not to mention it's going in the queues in like another 10 days. Yeah.
Josh Brown
So that's in the stock.
Scott Wapner
Everybody knows.
Joe Terranova
So that first tranche is somewhere in the second week of August. But it's important you say that when the dust has settled. We have been observing how it's trading. It's important to understand the mechanics of how it's trading, because this is a sentiment play. This is not a fundamental story. In the near term, when you.
Scott Wapner
What, Musk?
Josh Brown
It's a sentiment personality cult.
Scott Wapner
It's a personality play. You can't. I mean, how do you make a fundamental case? You can't around it.
Joe Terranova
Take the. Take the calculator.
Josh Brown
2030 revenue. You can use 2030 revenue on a $29 trillion useless pencils.
Joe Terranova
Calculate is useful. It's. It's a referendum on musk. But you observe the way it's trading. So let me give you this statistic, what we're Seeing now is that the range expansion dust is settling. The range is actually. The range expansion is actually now beginning to compress for the very first time today you have the tightest range that you've had so far since the IPO. You were generally running 24, 26, $30
Josh Brown
trade high, low inside the day.
Joe Terranova
Today it's getting tighter and tighter. What does that mean? That means price discovery is beginning to work. You're getting the transparency and you're beginning to see the actual price level that it should find itself, its comfort zone. So I think it consolidates probably in this area a little bit under $200
Josh Brown
those first three days of trading too. Please remember you had billions of dollars coming into 2x versions of of Space X. Again, we didn't have this five years ago. The last time we had mega, very, very large IPOs, you didn't have as much leverage coming into the derivative side of the trade that quickly. Joe and I come from a time originally when it would take six months to get options listed. So it's a whole new ball game. And sometimes what happens when there's this much excess enthusiasm, you pull forward. What would have other been otherwise would have been six weeks worth of gains. They might have pulled the first six weeks worth of enthusiasm for the stock into three days.
Joe Terranova
1.8 million contracts traded in the option market on the first day.
Josh Brown
That is a record IPO and we've never seen anything like that before.
Scott Wapner
The arguably one of the biggest beneficiaries, if not the biggest to this point, Goldman Sachs.
KFC Advertiser
Yes, right.
Scott Wapner
The fees that they will make off of this. In an environment where the capital markets have returned with such vigor, Goldman Sachs has shattered dealmaking records. This was as of yesterday, a trillion dollars in the first half in M and A according to reports. Yeah, the fastest to ever reach that milestone. It's the firm you probably had. Morgan Stanley had a big role in the IPO as well. Well, but Goldman stock got over $1,000. It hasn't really looked back. You own it?
Mike Santoli
I have.
Joe Terranova
The last two years I've owned it. I've done personally fantastic with it. The stock. The company has done such a good job. David Solomon and the executive management team has really looked at the business and skinnied it down and said where exactly can we isolate on the strongest revenue growth? And that's the activity, activity surrounding trading. That's the activity surrounding M and A, the advisory business. And they're executing on and to be
Josh Brown
fair, a lot of what he had to unwind was also some of his Projects. Well, we got to get there.
Eamon Javers
But.
Joe Terranova
But he was, he had the fortitude to admit that they needed to pivot and I'm fine with change and making that change and moving forward in the right direction and he's done that. It's Morgan Stanley. I think there's a bigger conversation surrounding the financial. Scott. The financials seem to be remake making a return, if you would.
Scott Wapner
It's the top sector over the past month. Okay. Up five and a half percent. It's been a central part of the moves away from the money going into tech.
Mike Santoli
Right.
Scott Wapner
It's been finding a home here. In part because of what I said. The capital markets and the return between this could be a record year for M and A. You get the SpaceX IPO. You don't think Goldman's going to have a central role in Anthropic and Open Air as well?
Josh Brown
We have a capital market cycle that's in full swing for the first time since 2021. And the difference between this and 21 is the quality. These are companies. You may not love the initial profitability but these are companies coming in with billions and tens of billions in revenue. Especially in the case of OpenAI and Anthropic. I don't think it's a fair comparison to look at the thousand or so IP as we did in 2021 and say that this is the same type of capital markets boom. You just like this one better.
Scott Wapner
You just bought J.P. morgan. I did.
Joe Terranova
J.P. morgan.
Scott Wapner
Welcome, welcome, welcome to the club.
Joe Terranova
J.P. morgan is a name that I've traded in and out of of the last several years. Done particularly well with it. We've held it in the ETF. We moved out of it around 315. I wanted to restore position if it got back above 330 because I expected it to take out a new all time high. It's in the process of doing so today. You have a little bit of a pullback. I'm fine with that pullback. Look, the financial universe is really strong to your point. It lends itself into areas like T. Rowe Price, like interactive brokers. I have talked and I'm going to continue to talk about this because I feel like I'm helping the viewers. Virtu Financial is the play on high frequency and market making. When you, you look at the return from Jane street which is a private company, Virtu Financial is the only way to get that exposure. I'm friends with the executive management of the company but you're talking about a Stock that's at $62 now, Scott, we were talking about that in the 30s.
Scott Wapner
You still like the exchanges too out of this group. By the way, we didn't have a chance to do this yesterday because we were listening to the President out at the G7. But I just want to give a shout to Terry Duffy.
Joe Terranova
Yes.
Scott Wapner
For the the transformational impact that he's had on CME Group. Announcing yesterday of course that he's no longer going to be CEO coming up. But he's had a remarkable run. I think you own it or like it have picked it.
Mike Santoli
I've been.
Josh Brown
I have been involved.
Scott Wapner
He deserves a shout. Speaking of, he's a friend of the network. He's done an incredible job at CME group up in Chicago.
Joe Terranova
24 years. I had the privilege and honor before my CNBC life to know Terry, to be involved with him professionally. I believe we own CME in the etf. There are some questions in front of CME as we move into the future as it relates to 247 trading, as it relates to perpetual futures. Lynn Fitzpatrick, who will be the incoming CEO, she's been there with Terry along the way. She's the CFO and the President currently. I think it'll be a smooth transition and I trust Lyn's ability to answer these critical questions. On does the CME move in the direction to accept things like 247 trading in the perpetual futures.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Last thing I want to do in the first block of our program here is another purchase from Joe. You bought the Expo again. Did you have the IBB?
Joe Terranova
No, I had the XPI. Bought the XBI. Back in the fall at 101. Sold it out at 130 in March. Look, now that we have 52 week
Scott Wapner
high, by the way, now that we
Joe Terranova
have this apparent resolution to the military conflict in the Middle east, you're seeing the broadening out occur once again. That takes you back into areas of the market specifically like health care and the sub industry being biotech. If you pull up a chart. Can we pull that chart back here?
Josh Brown
Clean breakout?
Joe Terranova
Yeah, it's a Pure breakout above 140 as we. If you could pull that back over five years, you'll see that we could get back up to that $180 level. I like what we're seeing there. There are names embedded in there like Gilead that are working well also.
Scott Wapner
All right, I got some breaking news out of Washington. Amen. Javors has that for what do we know? Eamon.
Eamon Javers
Yes, Scott. We just heard from The Vice President J.D. vance in the briefing room talking to reporters defending the deal that the administration has struck with the Iranians and saying that 12.5 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz last night. He says that's a high since the war began. So an encouraging first day, he said in terms of this relationship between the United States and Iran, the Iranians did not fire at any ships in the strait last night, he said. He also said that he's not sure exactly when he's going to be going to Switzerland, though, for the negotiations on the final deal, which we're set to begin this weekend. He says likely this weekend, but it's unclear because the Iranians are having trouble getting out of Iran. And so it's not clear exactly when the lower level negotiations will be finished and the higher level negotiations can be can begin. He also said something interesting which we're going to have to get some more detail on, Scott, which is that he suggested that there are these so called gentlemen's agreements that are on the side of this deal that are not in the main deal. The text of which we got yesterday, the vice President suggesting that some of those gentlemen's agreements have been written down in writing, but it's not exactly clear what those are. But overall, the vice President's argument here was that the Iranians will not get any financial benefit from this deal until they've demonstrated a pattern of good behavior that the US Government is comfortable with. And then finally, on the question of tolling in the strait, even though the Iranians said yesterday they do intend to charge fees in the strait, the vice president said no, he believes the United States will not agree to a final deal with Iran that includes tolling in the strait because the Gulf states in the region will not want to support that either. So that one still seems to be a little bit unresolved. Scott, back over to you.
Scott Wapner
Gentlemen's agreement sounds somewhat unprecedented, wouldn't you think, for a treaty, if you will, of this degree and to not have everything explicitly put in print.
Eamon Javers
Yeah, that's right. And I think that's why we need a little bit more detail from the White House on what exactly the vice President was referring to there. He was asked about these gentlemen's agreements, whether they were in writing or just verbal. He said that they were in writing. So I think we do need an answer of, you know, what those are and you know, what's in the, in the document that's not been released so far. Presumably these could be provisions that they intend to go in the final deal, which, you know, the starting gun for the negotiation on that was set to be this weekend and apparently is still set to be this weekend, although there's some looseness to the timing of that according to the vice president. So we need a little bit more information about where this is, where this is going and what exactly is in this deal.
Scott Wapner
All right. I appreciate that very much. Thank you. Amon Jabras down in Washington for us.
KFC Advertiser
All right.
Scott Wapner
We're rounding out the front nine of our program. Still ahead, Josh Browns his best stocks in the market coming up first, though, GOLF Channel's Rich Lerner. He joins us live right here on set. Talk about what's at stake for this weekend's championship, big money behind the game of golf and his new book. His new book, Rich Lerner's Next
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Scott Wapner
AT and T Business Wireless connecting changes everything.
Joe Terranova
Hi.
Scott Wapner
Welcome back to Shinnecock Hills. The 126th U.S. open is underway here despite a morning fog delay. This storied golf course, always a test of the best players in the world. But today an even bigger one as the winds here are blowing, only expected to get stronger as this day progresses. We're joined now by the Gulf Channel's anchor and report reporter and now author Rich Lerner. Thank you so much for making time for us. You are the busiest man in showbiz today.
Rich Lerner
You're in my seat by the way. And you're crushing it. I'm in the grandel seat, you guys. By the way, I was watching you guys talk business the way we talk golf.
Scott Wapner
Try to lean on the people who
Joe Terranova
know the game, so to speak.
Scott Wapner
Very well. This place is always tough. You throw in these conditions and what does that mean?
Rich Lerner
Means spirits get broken, not par. You take the four U.S. opens that have been played here going back to 1986. Ready for this 156 player field. Do the math. You're in business times four. Only three players have broken par.
Eamon Javers
Wow.
Rich Lerner
Going back to 1986, it's hard.
Scott Wapner
That gives us an idea of what we may expect over the weekend. I mean, especially if the winds.
Josh Brown (advertisement voice)
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Remain this way. Scotty, Rory, they've won for the last six majors, Kelsey. The, you know, prediction markets have them as the obvious favorites there. What are your expectations for them as they're both on the golf course as we speak?
Rich Lerner
I like Rory. I think he's a better player than he's ever been. More mature. I think he's freed up after having lifted that weight, the better than decade, you know, albatross that. That he carried with him, never having won the Masters or the career Grand Slam. So I like Rory and obviously never don't like Scotty Scheffler. He's that good. He hasn't had his best year by his standards, but he's still the clear cut, number one player in the world. And I think should Scotty win, then if you step back, we will be smack in an era with two legendary players. They will be two of the seven who have won all the four major championships, the career Grand Slam. And so this is sort of an era defining duo. In the same way Arnie and Jack defined the 60s, a little bit later, Faldo and Norman defined the 90s. And then after those guys, it was Tiger and Phil. It's an exciting time for the game.
Scott Wapner
Is there a long shot out here? If you said you had to pick somebody other than those two, I don't
Rich Lerner
know that I would. I would pick one. I would just remind you that the defense, defending champion is JJ Spawn. And nobody had JJ on the radar last year at Oakmont. Nobody had Aaron Rye at the PGA Championship last month in Philadelphia. It speaks to the depth of talent on the PGA Tour.
Scott Wapner
How would you describe the current state of the game of golf?
Rich Lerner
Look, there's some uncertainty, and there has been with live golf over the last four and a half years. The PGA Tour, I think, comes out as the winner here. When the dust settles. Participation, engagement in the game at all time highs. I think the game's in a great spot.
Scott Wapner
What do you make of the. The pushback of the rollback, I guess you want to call it, right?
Rich Lerner
Look, it's the golf ball.
Scott Wapner
They're trying to control the distance. These guys hit it so far.
KFC Advertiser
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Now we're going to push that back until 2030.
Rich Lerner
Professionals don't want to be told you can't hit it 330. They train hard for speed and power to be able to do that. No amateur wants to be told that, you know, we're going to give you a golf ball that flies seven yards shorter. We all want that, Pop. But the powers that be, the governing bodies in the game are trying to protect these old ballparks. This is akin to Wrigley Field or Fenway Park. It's a beloved stadium. And you want to be able to play the great championships where the history of the sport's been written. You want to be able to continue, continue to play the great championships on courses like this.
Scott Wapner
You've seen so many of the great moments in this great game over your career. You document some of what you've seen in your new book. Aren't you that golf guy? I'm sure you get that a lot. And I'm sure you get a lot of, hey, Rich, how you doing when you're walking around now, people know certainly who you are. What do you want people to take away from your book?
Rich Lerner
Well, look, the book is deeply personal. I've been fortunate to, to have lived a lifetime in the sport. My father, rest in peace, was a Wharton grad. He was an entrepreneur. He would have, you know, he loved CNBC. He came out of Penn and in the 1950s after having served in the Navy in World War II. He and some buddies, they weren't great players, but they saw that golf was taking off and they started a driving range, chip and putt miniature golf in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Working class, Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. So it details, my coming of age years at the Golf center was the greatest summer job of all time. Through my now 30 years at golf Channel, chasing Tiger. I got to the channel just as Tiger was on the rise. Wonderful relationships through the years with Arnold, who was a co founder of the Golf Channel, Jack Nicklaus. But their funny, hilarious Encounters with Matthew McConaughey, Will Ferrell, Samuel L. Jackson, and the list goes on and on. It's a good ride. It's a fun read. It's easy and in spots it's, it's hilarious.
Scott Wapner
Congratulations to you. Not easy to to do one of these projects, but thank you so much.
Rich Lerner
Thanks for having me on Scott.
Scott Wapner
Of course you will see him all over this US Open. You can catch the first round coverage from the US Open on USA Network followed by by Rich and the gang with analysis on live from 8pm Eastern on Golf Channel. That is always a must watch following a round of golf. The best insight you will get anywhere. Mackenzie Segalus now has a CNBC news update. Hi there Mac.
Mackenzie Segala
Hey Scott. So proposal to raise taxes on California billionaires has officially qualified for the November ballot. The initiative would implement a one time 5% tax on the assets of Californians whose net worth exceeds $1.1 billion. Governor Gavin Newsom, who opposes the measure, is hoping to strike a deal with the union sponsoring it to withdraw the proposal. Top White House officials said goodbye to Air Force One as the administration prepares to replace it with a Boeing 747 donated by Qatar. After President Trump and his staff returned from the G7 summit overnight, White House Communications director Stephen Chung pop posted a photo of the jet on X captioning it the last ride. The Air Force said last month that the Qatari jet had been modified and completed flight testing. And Waymo is recalling thousands of its robo taxis to fix a software issue that made some cars enter and speed through freeway construction zones. In six instances in Phoenix, Waymos drove past ramp closure signs and in seven cases in San Francisco, cars drove between cones designating closed lanes. It's the company's second recall since May.
Josh Brown
Scott, back to you.
Scott Wapner
All right, Matt, appreciate that very much. Coming up, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. It still goes on from here at Shinnecock Hills right after this.
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Josh Brown
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Joe Terranova
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Scott Wapner
All right, we're back at the best golfers in the world on the golf course right now. We got the best stocks according to Josh Brown. Yeah, this rolls on. We don't, we don't stop this just because we're out at the US Open.
Josh Brown
I don't see how we could judge.
Scott Wapner
What do you got here at the top of your leaderboard?
Josh Brown
All right, so this is a new name. It might be the first time anyone has ever talked about it on CNBC as as far as I can tell we're going to talk about Macom Technology Solutions. The ticker is mtsi. We wrote it up for best stocks in the market column at CNBC Pro this morning. This is a 75 year old chip maker, Scott. They started out building radar components for the Army Signal Corps in 1950. It's had a couple of iterations but basically the story here is the analysts covering it thought they were covering this sleepy little electronics maker that's selling things to the military, to industrial use. And all of a sudden it turns out the optical components that they sell are incredibly important for data centers. It became an AI stock this year effectively overnight. They reported earnings in early May and absolutely blew the coverage away when they talked about a book to bill ratio at 1.5. That means they have already sold 1.5 for every one unit and that they have an inventory and the bookings just continue because you cannot do this type of data center work, spend all this money on GPUs and not have lightning speed communication between the servers. So that's what's happening with the stock today. It's digested that really big move. I think the stock is viable here. I think it's better for a trade than for a longer term investment from this entry and basically what we're saying here is traders as a tactical stop can use the 50 day moving average which is about 330 that's being dragged up. Of course a close below on volume tells you that the pullback is becoming something more than just a routine digestion. Of gains. But above there I think you can play. Stock probably takes out 400 along with the rest of the build out rally.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I'm not suggesting that any of these particular names are M and A candidates, but sooner or later this is a semiconductor equipment name.
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
We all know the performance of LAM Research, KLA Applied Material. Scott. We talk about it all the time and it's tethered to what we're witnessing with Micron. Now this is a name that at a $30 billion market cap, I think at some point we really haven't seen aggressive buying in the technology sector in particular for some of these semi names. And this is an example of the type of company that could potentially be that target.
Josh Brown
Glad you brought that up. It's been acquired before. This actually ended up being a part of Tyco, which people who were investing in the late 90s, early 2000s infamously remember. It was bought out by someone. They brought it back public as its own company. So that actually has happened here before. There are a whole bunch of names like MTSI on the 52 week high list. All of them have this one big thing in common. You really can't do the AI cloud build out without the components that they sell.
Scott Wapner
We take a quick break. You come back Santoli, his midday words on the other side. We're back at Shinnecock Hill after this. Look at that beautiful golf course today. Golfers are out there in the first round here of the US Open. We're live from Shinnecock Hills. We get down to the New York Stock Exchange where Mike Santoli is standing by for his midday word. So how would you assess how the market reacted to the first wash news conference and then this bounce back today? Are we just still trying to figure this whole thing out?
Mike Santoli
We definitely are. I do think it's, you know, we often talk about this that the next morning there's kind of a rethink or a slight retrace of that exaggerated reaction from the Fed's press conference. That's what we did see today. I think the most distinct animating feature today though is in chips. We trust. That was the first instinct we, you know, we talked about it before the close yesterday, Scott, was we don't really know what the macro is doing here. Yields are going higher. Let's see if the NASDAQ 100 could get us out of this mess. And you're starting to see that again with just this ramp vertically in the, in the memory stocks. Not that it's only that it's still the majority of stocks up. Some of the rate sensitives have come back. What I am focused on though is we see it here at s and P7500. We first got to 7500 five weeks ago. That was the day of the Cerebras IPO. Cisco rips 14% on a great earnings print or at least reaction. You had us China kind of making some kind of progress. You know, WTI closes below 100. And so since then, the market's been attempting to kind of pivot to macro and say maybe some other parts of this market could work. Banks have done. So the rest of it I still think is pretty contingent. So I'm sort of on alert for that. Might have been an interim peak in NASDAQ over the average stock, but we still have to see that proven out.
Scott Wapner
Okay, good stuff. I'll see you a little bit later this afternoon. Mike Santoli, thank you very much. Still ahead, a double digit gain this week for Josh's newest buy. We will discuss and we will reveal from the US Open next.
AT&T Business Wireless Representative
All right.
Scott Wapner
Welcome back to the US Open here at Shinnecock Hill, Southampton, New York. Let's hit some committee. Stocks that are on the move. And I'll tell you what's been on the move. Robinhood's been on the move, on track for back to back weeks of double digit gains. You just bought it earlier this week. Stock up 10% since you mentioned that buy on halftime report the other day.
Josh Brown
Yeah. The way I learned it is fundamentals tell you what to buy but but technicals tell you when to buy it. This was clearly a stock that was on the verge of breaking out. This thing is ripping off its lows. It's 31% below its highs. But now for the first time since January, it is above every moving average. It just broke above its 200 day, which we haven't seen in half a year. The stock is 67% above its 52 week low. And again, a lot of room between between here and where it was last year. I think the story here is very simple. Markets are on fire. We were talking capital markets earlier in the show and as evidence of that, I asked for this chart of interactive brokers. This is another name that we've talked about as far as being a best stock in the market. I know Joe has been talking about it all year as well, a little bit longer term here on ibkr. So what's happening here very simply is the retail trader and the professional trader are both operating at very high levels in this bull market. And these are two of the biggest beneficiaries. They actually look better judged than the exchanges which we talked about earlier today.
Scott Wapner
We did. You own Robinhood?
Joe Terranova
I do. And we, we talked a lot about good news and bad price action. We don't talk enough about bad news and good price action. And that's exactly what you could find in Robinhood. Josh cited a series of higher lows coming off the March low. But what's embedded in there is the reaction from the April earnings. The stock went down immediately on bad news and reversed. It defended against that prevailing downtrend. And that's indicative of a stock that wants to move higher. I think Robinhood has done a phenomenal job in terms of what their intellectual capital acquisition has been. And I think there's a clear, clear lead that they're establishing over what's the perceived rival coinbase. Last point on all of it. Look at today. Robinhood's higher and guess what?
Josh Brown
Crypto is down to say there's no help from crypto in this price action. Yet you get a 7 handle back in front of BTC. There's no reason this stock couldn't be 115. There's been a very high correlation between the two. Robinhood is ripping without any kind of recovery in the, in the crypto, crypto markets. That's. To me, that's not a negative, that's a positive because that's potential.
Scott Wapner
Last quick thing I want to touch on this. This Senate panel approving this bill that would bar defense contractors from buying back stock. You own several of these names?
Joe Terranova
We do, and they're just not working, Scott. They're not building momentum.
Scott Wapner
They have a T or personal. They are on the T. They are
Joe Terranova
in the T. So as an example, Lockheed Martin, they're in the T for
Scott Wapner
about another 10 minutes.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, well, we were rebalancing at the end of July, but the momentum doesn't build in them. The revenue growth is, is beginning to decelerate. Lockheed Martin, you're looking at low single digits now. That's just not good enough. This bill is troubling. If you're going to look in that direction, you want to look towards aerospace, a name like Helmet. We've owned hw and for years now, that's worked remarkably well.
Scott Wapner
All right, we take a break. We'll come back. Final trades on the other side from the US Open next. We will be back here at Shinnecock Hills later this afternoon, 3 o' clock Eastern time for the closing bell. We will have Liz Thomas, Jeremy Siegel, Keith Lerner, Tom Lee, Eric Woodring and the CEO of the usga, Mike Wan. Hope you all join me then. Final trade real quick.
Josh Brown
Corning may come and yes we own it in our Porterhouse port.
Scott Wapner
Alright, I will see you at 3 o' clock this afternoon. The Exchanges now you've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
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Josh Brown (advertisement voice)
always have a few financial goals and a really smart one. You can set earning cash back on what you buy every day, and with Discover you can get this Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously. All of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms@discover.com creditcard.
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests/Co-Hosts: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Mike Santoli, Mackenzie Segala, Eamon Javers, Rich Lerner (Golf Channel)
Recording Location: Shinnecock Hills, Southampton, NY
Date: June 18, 2026
This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report comes live from the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, blending real-time market analysis with insights into the championship’s opening day. Host Scott Wapner is joined by regulars Joe Terranova and Josh Brown, with guests from the Golf Channel and CNBC’s reporter bench, discussing major moves in the markets post-Fed meeting, sector rotations, the latest on Apple and the memory chip trade, SpaceX’s IPO aftermath, big news in banking, the evolving state of golf, and breaking geopolitical developments—all against the dramatic backdrop of a storied golf course wrestled by intense winds.
“They unwound the whole thing less than 24 hours later. I don't really know who is doing these trades. It's algorithms, maybe some pods at some of the big pod shops.” (Josh Brown, 03:56)
“If you look at Micron's inventory, Scott, it is basically sold out through the middle of 2027.” (06:08)
“Apple is up...They're talking...this could be like a 200 basis point hit or whatever. The stock is higher.” (09:14)
“Discussions about China as a memory chip supplier need to be reopened with the government here in the U.S." (Mackenzie Segala, 10:36)
“There are two types of people who have been involved in Space X since it came public...those who believe in Elon Musk...The other group...they want the sizzle, not the steak. The problem is the sizzle's gone.” (14:31)
“Goldman stock got over $1,000. It hasn't really looked back.” (Scott Wapner, 18:14)
“Spirits get broken, not par...Only three players have broken par [here] since 1986.” (Rich Lerner, 29:48)
On the Fed Reaction:
“This was like a momentary tantrum. It felt like yesterday.” — Scott Wapner (03:17)
On Tech’s Resilience:
“Momentum is actually outperforming the S&P market cap and the S&P equal weight.” — Joe Terranova (02:22)
On the Memory Trade & Apple:
“Basically like Tim Cook...saying what he did about raising prices was arguably the biggest validation in the moment for the memory trade.” — Scott Wapner (06:41)
“The DRAM ETF is up 152% since April.” — Scott Wapner (07:50)
On SpacesX IPO:
“It’s a sentiment personality cult.” — Josh Brown (16:19)
On Goldman Sachs and Banking:
“Goldman Sachs has shattered dealmaking records...a trillion dollars in the first half in M and A...” — Scott Wapner (18:14)
On Golf at Shinnecock:
“Means spirits get broken, not par...Only three players have broken par since 1986.” — Rich Lerner (29:48)
Halftime Report leverages its location at Shinnecock Hills to marry real-time market analysis with commentary on the U.S. Open and broader economic and geopolitical themes. The episode offers a window into continued tech and memory chip momentum validated by Apple, new financial sector leadership, evolving IPO dynamics exemplified by SpaceX, significant geopolitical deals, and both the challenges and vitality defining 2026 for golfing elites and retail investors alike.
This summary endeavors to capture both the critical content and the conversational, in-the-moment tone of the show’s panel of market experts and special guests.