CNBC Halftime Report: Live from the CAIS Alternatives Conference in Beverly Hills

Date: October 14, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Key Guests: Jenny Johnson (Franklin Templeton), Glenn August (Oak Hill Advisors), Steve Liesman (CNBC), Shannon Saccocia, Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Robert Frank, Leslie Picker
Main Theme:
A real-time deep dive into the current state of markets, alternatives investing, and monetary policy, featuring top asset managers and real-time reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s breaking headlines. Special focus on the surging interest in alternative investments ("alts"), cracks in credit markets, the role of AI, and the broader economic environment.

Episode Overview

Broadcast live from the CAIS Alternatives Conference, CNBC’s Halftime Report focuses on the continued boom in alternative investments, the ongoing debate about bubbles (especially in AI and private credit), and immediate market reactions to earnings and Fed policy headlines. With market veterans and leading CEOs, this episode provides a snapshot of institutional sentiment in 2025 and the evolving landscape for both professional and retail investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview & Earnings Reaction (00:56 - 10:35)

• Positive Turn in Financials:

  • JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs: Initially negative after earnings, both stocks rebound as market digests stronger-than-expected results.
  • Stephanie Link (not present but referenced): "That's why Wells is my largest position in the market... she certainly got that stocks up almost 7%.” (03:24)

• Commentary on Major Banks:

  • Josh Brown: “The business is absolutely rock solid... guidance for next year net interest income, the consensus was at 100 billion and they sort of said we would tell you that 100 billion might be a little bit low. That’s music to my ears as a, as a long term shareholder.” (04:13)
  • Key risk identified: Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) and the potential ripple effect from private credit/loan markets.

• Quotes on Current Risks:

  • Jamie Dimon: “I probably shouldn’t be saying this, but there’s never just one cockroach.” (Jamie Dimon, as quoted by Josh Brown, 05:06)

• Sentiment Pulse:

  • Bank of America fund manager survey finds investors most overweight equities since February; yet, 54% think AI stocks are in a bubble.
  • David Solomon (Goldman Sachs, as quoted): “...there’s a fair amount of investor exuberance... following periods of broad based excitement around new technologies, there will ultimately be a divergence where some ventures thrive and others falter.” (08:45)

2. AI, Bubble Concerns & Sector Rotations (10:09 - 15:27)

• Debate about AI Bubble:

  • Stan (Panelist): Questions about whether AI investments can spread outside big tech, noting the “have and have-nots” dynamic.
  • Josh Brown: Recommends caution on adding further to AI-exposed positions, suggesting rotation into healthcare, financials, or overlooked 2025 laggards.

• Momentum vs. Quality:

  • Joe Terranova: “This has been a momentum rally. This has been a crypto rally. This has been an AI adjacent rally. And in some areas of the market, it’s a junk rally.” (11:39)

3. Alternatives Boom & Democratization (15:27 - 18:45)

• Robert Frank on Alts:

  • “Alternatives refers to anything not a publicly traded stock or bond: private equity, credit, hedge funds, real estate, crypto...”
  • “Typical US Family office has about half of their investments in alternatives... median returns for private equity have lagged public markets, but IPOs and exits may boost PE in the near future.” (15:46)

• Retail Revolution in Alts:

  • Leslie Picker: Retail allocations projected to grow from $80B to $2.4T by 2030, yet new vehicles for retail have higher fees and potential liquidity risks.
  • Regulatory Warning: Moody’s flags risk if retail funds face liquidity crunches. (16:38)

• Portfolio Construction Shift:

  • Decline in public companies and slower traditional bank loan growth means private assets are an essential part of long-term investing.

[Fed Update & Macro Policy] (19:40 - 25:02)

• Jay Powell’s Headlines:

  • No major change in Fed’s view on employment or inflation since September, but sees some tightening in liquidity.
  • “We may approach a point in the coming months where the Fed stops reducing its balance sheet.” (Powell, reported by Steve Liesman, 20:14)

• Jenny Johnson’s Economic Take:

  • “It feels like the labor market is okay... Productivity has gone up... It actually feels like the labor market is okay.” (23:06)
  • “We think that the market is a little too bullish on their thoughts of 1, 2, 2.25 basis point cuts, you know, and say the next year.” (24:29)

• Bullishness & AI Bubble:

  • “Bull markets are never linear, right... we’re in early innings on [AI]; most companies are just right now trying to figure out how to use it...” (25:11)

• Gold as Risk Indicator:

  • “Gold has always been viewed as a hedge to inflation... I think the run in gold supports... a pretty robust economy here.” (26:25)

[Alternatives Allocations in Portfolios] (26:49 - 29:43)

• Allocations & Innovation:
  • Franklin Templeton: $260B of $1.6T AUM in alternatives; expects retail allocation to alts to rise from 3% to 10-15% in five years (28:40).
  • “You get a premium for that illiquidity which is significant in a person’s retirement plans.” (27:21)
  • Vehicle innovation (e.g., interval funds) is key for average investors to access alternatives. Financial advisors crucial for suitable client assignments.

4. Private Credit & Systemic Risk—Interview with Glenn August (31:02 - 36:23)

• On Private Credit Bubble:

  • “I do not see a bubble in private credit... There’s always idiosyncratic risk, but the backdrop is reasonably solid.” (31:19)
  • Cites Jamie Dimon's “never just one cockroach” remark, but sees limited broader market risk: “There’s really idiosyncratic risk.”
  • “The credit market is not the equity market... we still see good opportunity.” (32:34)

• Survey Skepticism:

  • On Bank of America’s survey naming private credit as most likely source of systemic issue: “I normally take the other side of the survey.” (34:24)
  • Sees returns in private equity falling, driving flows into private credit.

• Shadow Banking Perspective:

  • “This whole fear is overblown... The companies we’re lending to are more than 50% equity cushion.” (35:11)

• Risk Management:

  • “We look at our own book every day... You always have to be on top of what you own every single day.” (36:13)

5. Real-Time Q&A with Fed Chair Jerome Powell (36:33 - 56:30)

• Monetary Policy Outlook:

  • Powell reiterates the balancing act between risk of cutting rates too soon vs. leaving inflation “unfinished.”
  • “If we move too quickly, then we may leave the inflation job unfinished and have to come back later and finish it. If we move too slowly, there may be unnecessary losses... in the employment market.” (36:33)

• Labor Market Equilibrium:

  • Break-even employment growth rate possibly below 30,000 jobs/month due to demographics, lower participation, immigration changes.
  • “The unemployment rate has barely moved... suggests that [supply and demand] are moving at roughly the same pace.” (38:01)

• Transmission Mechanism:

  • Policy now impacts markets instantly, but impacts to employment, inflation occur with “long and variable lags.” (39:29)

• Alternative Data in Policy:

  • Private/non-government labor data “better used as a supplement” rather than main source. (41:50)

• AI and Productivity:

  • “It was Robert Solow who said that technology is showing up everywhere but in the productivity data. So this could be the same kind of thing...” (46:08)
  • Range of AI impacts is “very broad”; more research needed.

• Fed Independence:

  • “The main thing we can continue to do is to do our work the way we've always done it... and then explain those decisions…” (50:43)

• Consensus vs. Debate:

  • “Consensus is great, but the most important thing is to get it right... the meetings that we’ve been having are as good as any we’ve had, in terms of people sincerely... giving their absolute best argument for their positions.” (52:58)

• Advice for Young Economists:

  • “What I would tell young economists is you’ve chosen a great profession... It’s not just hard, it’s basically impossible. But it’s a very, very difficult thing. But it yields itself up over time.” (56:30)

Memorable Quotes with Timestamps

• “There's never just one cockroach.” – Jamie Dimon, as referenced by Josh Brown (05:06)
• “This hasn’t been a quality rally in 2025. This has been a momentum rally. This has been a crypto rally. This has been an AI adjacent rally. And in some areas... a junk rally.” – Joe Terranova (11:39)
• “The average investor can’t participate in the private markets. And with the way that companies are waiting so long to go public and banks aren’t lending in the same way you need to be able to access. It’s a massive opportunity that I saw.” – Jenny Johnson (28:09)
• “I do not see a bubble in private credit... There’s always idiosyncratic risk, but the backdrop is still reasonably solid.” – Glenn August (31:19)
• “If we move too quickly, then we may leave the inflation job unfinished and have to come back later and finish it. If we move too slowly, there may be unnecessary losses… in the employment market.” – Jay Powell (36:33)
• “Technology can work for everybody as long as everybody’s getting the skills and aptitudes they need to use that technology.” – Jay Powell (47:40)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Market and Earnings Overview: 00:56 – 10:09
• AI, Bubbles, and Rotation Discussion: 10:09 – 15:27
• Alts Boom (Frank, Picker): 15:27 – 18:45
• Fed Breaking News / Macro: 19:40 – 25:02
• Jenny Johnson on Alts: 25:02 – 29:43
• Glenn August, Private Credit: 31:02 – 36:23
• Powell Q&A (Full): 36:33 – 56:30

Conclusion / Takeaway

This episode captures the crossroads institutional investors face in 2025: surging interest and innovation in alternatives, anxieties over credit and AI-driven bubbles, and the evolving role of monetary policy amid ambiguous macro signals. The discussion underscores both the promise and risk in democratizing access to alternatives, the uncertainty in credit markets, and the critical importance of adaptive risk management.

For Further Detail:

• Explore the “Inside Alts” newsletter (referenced multiple times) for deep dives on the growth and risks in alternative assets.
• Listen to the Franklin Templeton and Oak Hill Advisors interviews within the episode for nuanced, candid views on alts and credit.