
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate what's riding on Nvidia earnings and what it will mean for the markets and your money. Plus, the desk shares their latest portfolio moves. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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This is a 30 second AD. In just 30 seconds, there are likely to be an average of over 30,000 cyber threats to all businesses. Since I've been talking, more than 10,000 likely just happened. Hey, cyber threats don't wait and neither should you. With advanced advanced security solutions, Comcast Business can help keep your network and data secure and your business reliably up and running. Get threat ready with Comcast Business. Learn how@comcastbusiness.com cybersecurity I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour. Does the so called everything rally hinge on what Nvidia reports? Tonight we will discuss and debate what is really at stake with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Bryn Talkington. Let's check the markets here. NASDAQ is the winner. As you see, S and P is positive, which is nice to see because stocks have been down four days in a row. The Nasdaq's been down five of six. Bespoke says the S&P 500 closed in oversold territory for the first time since the tariff tantrum on Tuesday. Joe, does Nvidia determine whether we have an everything rally or not?
Joe Terranova
Well, it certainly would help to lift animal spirits which have been dampened significantly. You're citing the market being higher today. The S and P equal weight is down 40 basis points. So where's the broadening? It's really non existent. We're unfortunately sitting in an environment right now where if you talk to the hedge fund community, you speak to speculators, you ask yourself the question, what do you want to do here? You do want to actually step towards risk or take risk off? I think the question is you're more inclined to take off some risk. And that's the place that I reside myself right now. I called for a chase for performance. Ultimately, the chase for performance began. Maybe it's going to end a lot sooner than I expected it to, but it needs a catalyst and hopefully tonight in video is one of the reasons that helps.
Scott Wapner
I mean Steph JP Morgan's trading desk says the setup appears to be poised for an everything rally. They say given that there have not been any changes to the fundamental story nor does our investment hypothesis rely on the Fed easing. We're dip buyers as we look at two key events this week, nonfarm payrolls. Yes. It's way backward looking obviously because it's September. That's going to be released here in November and in video tonight. When combined this could set the stage for the next run through all time highs. Do we agree as they make the case as we've discussed the fundamental story hasn't change hasn't changed the narrative around I been spending and debt and everything else bubble. Maybe that's changed a little bit momentarily perhaps. But nothing fundamentals changed. So why not all time highs?
Stephanie Link
I think we could see all time highs. We had the volatility in November. We didn't get it in September and October. Okay, so now you've had the pullback. The economy Atlanta fed tracker is 4.1%. It keeps going higher, Scott, every single reading higher and higher. And that bodes very well for overall earnings. Earnings came in at 12%. I think they're going to come in at 12% for the next quarter and next year too. We have a lot of momentum in this economy and we haven't even really seen deregulation. We get the low taxes from the Trump administration and next year you get $150 billion of new fiscal spending. So that's good. All of that is good. Now nvid India, it's 7% of the S&P 500 but the food chain is huge. Think about a data center power grid. We talk about it. We've been talking about it for three years. That implies for so many different sectors in this market. So. Right. So it's not just technology but it's industrials, it's utilities, it's the power companies. So to the extent that they Nvidia can be transparent about the money that's going to be spent and give us more confidence there. I think that bodes well for the overall market.
Scott Wapner
You point to as you see it the reward for all of these other areas. You could certainly flip that and suggest it shows more risk too. It shows you everything that is levered to Nvidia's success which is why we even asked the question at the start of the show is an everything rally in this market. Jim primed on what happens tonight because of exactly what Steph said.
Jim Leventhal
I think it matters a lot because a lot of this Artificial intelligence, trade, frankly, all of it is predicated on rapid growth in revenue and earnings from the companies involved in it. And the biggest barometer of whether that growth will come through or not is tonight's earnings report from Nvidia. Now I do expect that they will beat on all metrics and I expect that they will raise guidance. I say that based not just from licking my finger and putting it in the air, but what all the hyperscalers are saying about their capex plans, the spoken words from the managers of those companies. It would be the height of surprise to see a disappointing report in any way from today from Nvidia's report. And yes, I think that does catalyze, catalyze us higher after a two to three week mini correction.
Scott Wapner
So we'll get to Nvidia more specifically in a second. I know you all are into that. There's no with the hope. We all are. But this move in Alphabet, I gotta tell you, it has defied many people's expectations. This stock hit a new record high today. Bryn, I make the transition and I come to you for a reason because you did buy the stock. You bought it last week at $286. This latest burst is because of optimism around Gemini 3. So why did you decide to buy it? Because the story got really negative for a while. The stock has been relentless in beating down the negativity. There's the chart which shows exactly what I'm talking about. What do you think?
Bryn Talkington
I think I listened to the earnings call as I have for the last few quarters on Alphabet and I really feel like Alphabet is the juxtaposition to it to an open AI. So they had 102 billion this last quarter, quarter in revenues from search, YouTube, Google Cloud and that continues to amplify. I think the market is coming around to their TPU's, their version of chips which they've been using for years actually are better than a lot of people thought. Gemini from a retail perspective is gaining share from Open Air so it's becoming the second most or chat GPT popular platform. But to me what I see is I still go down to, I think that Siri on Apple is still this Trojan horse And to me it makes sense that Google actually just last week announced their private AI cloud where we can use Gemini and not even Google gets access to that data. They also rolled out Google Shopping where you can just say find me pink Christmas tree and it goes and finds it for you. And so they continue to get better on search and I think that if we actually hear this partnership between Gemini and Apple putting that into there. Apple is very focused on security. This private cloud just came out. I think from a consumer perspective, Gemini's model just gets stronger. At the same time they have other sources of revenues versus this chat. GPT is just spending money in the future. They have high margins, high revenues and I really pay attention to P.S. i think it's just a number. It still has a pretty moderate P E relative to its growth rate and margins.
Scott Wapner
I go back and I'll just do it as long as I need to do it. Maybe in perpetuity if things continue this way. Jim Leventhal, as he looks at me and he smiles and he blushes as only Jim Leventhal can. The call that you made on this name was nothing short of extraordinary. We'll see where the stock goes from here. But you in the face of a lot of negativity said that's ridiculous. I'm holding on for dear life here and it has paid great rewards for you and others.
Jim Leventhal
It's felt good. I'm not going to lie. It's felt good. And thank you. Thank you very much. And I watched you and Joe on Monday and it was frankly hilarious. But I think if there's a lesson to be learned from it, it's the power of big this is a very big company with a lot of resources. So to the extent in May we were worried about it losing search dominance to the new AI players. My comment at the time and it remains is that they have the resour to compete and actually excel in the competition, which Gemini 3 is clearly showing to be the case.
Scott Wapner
You made an argument that day and the reason why we're showing the chart, I think this is from the Eddy Q. Sell off right in the courtroom and he suggests, well, for the first time ever, Google search declined on the on the browser and everybody sort of lost their minds for a moment and said oh man, this is the beginning of the end for the dominant position that Alphabet has had search and that the proliferation of large language models is only going to accelerate the decline in what has been an incredible cash cow business for this company. And you said no, this way overdone. And that's why that chart is reflecting from that date, May 7th until today, it's an 80% gain.
Jim Leventhal
I think we have more room to run now. I'm not saying to everybody, go make this the largest stock in your portfolio right now. It's had, as Scott just pointed out, a heck of a run. But I do think there's more in there because. And Scott, you just kind of touched on this when we went back to the ediq comments. The fears were that search was going to start a very rapid decline into oblivion. The last two earnings reports that have come out since those comments have indicated that search is growing and now it should grow more with the advent of Gemini 3, which I'm not saying is the end of the competition. This competition is going to go on for years. But for the immediate future, Gemini 3 is the lead horse in this horse race and I think that will cause earnings to go higher than what the estimates are for Google right now.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so take that. And now let's turn to Nvidia, which by the way is flat since the last earnings report in August. There's the chart that shows it. Draw a straight line across and you'll show a stock that has gone a lot to nowhere since that period of time. Goldman says options positioning ahead of this release tonight implies a plus or minus 7.3%. We want to know from Christina Parks Navalos, who covers this company closer than anybody, what matters most of all. That's what we need to know.
Christina Parks Navalos
$64 billion for the guide. I know that we can turn our noses at these whisper numbers for buy side, but it seems like the Nvidia game at earnings really has to hit these buy side numbers first. So $64 billion for the guide from there I think it's really about the sustainability of the demand. And the unfortunate thing for Nvidia is that Jensen Huang spoke at the end of October and he revealed that they had $500 billion in cumulative orders that would last through next year. That is a change of tone. Normally they just guide a quarter out. And so the fact that he revealed that information in October, you saw the stock jump to an all time high. Intraday $212. It's down 184 on your screen right now. So it's come down since then and it seems like the, the even if the options market is, is pricing in this swing, it seems people are just not expecting as much of a big blowout earnings.
Scott Wapner
Why?
Christina Parks Navalos
Because Nvidia is more tempered, predictable giant, which is great. We saw that happen with Apple and now that's what's coming forth with these earnings. You brought up the options market. I am seeing more call action versus put action which would imply that more people now this morning are betting that the stock will rise over the next short term. But overall, when we see these earnings report with Nvidia, shares tend to fall the day after.
Scott Wapner
I Thought it was interesting. As you know, it's a, it's a rarity frankly that you would hear from a CEO on the day of his earnings release like we did today from Jensen Huang down at the Saudi U.S. investment Forum in D.C. in which, you know, you don't really expect he's going to give you much in that way of specifics because he can't bound by obviously the laws, the rules that go into where we are in the period of time ahead of an earnings report. However, I thought it was notable when he was asked about, I think was the last question whether this is a bubble. Okay, I'm paraphrasing because he gave a very long answer, essentially talking about the transition from CPU to gpu. But he did make the case that everything that is going into that transition from you know, that then till now with supercomputing, he said, quote, is justified. So he kind of answered the question.
Christina Parks Navalos
And yes, because he's benefiting from it. He's saying that there's a 3 to 4 trillion dollars total addressable market, all of these old infrastructures, including CPUs that need to be upgraded to deal with the advanced compute that everybody wants to get their hands on. To your point about him speaking today, laughing on stage with Elon Musk, also attending a dinner last night, there are some, I guess traders are saying that's a bullish sign. If I ever saw a CEO just, you know, you're rubbing shoulders with some high profile people the night before a huge earnings report. So I think that is a very, very strong sign for the bubble comment though. Over. He's going to be bullish. We know that. We know Jensen Huang will be bullish about this. It's just, what about the longer term? When is OpenAI going to buy a, buy these chips? On stage today. One more point, Scott. Is that humane and Nvidia announced this in this collaboration? This collaboration was first announced in May. They're working together and in the coming hour we should get more information on the number of GPUs that Saudi Arabia.
Stephanie Link
Is going to buy.
Christina Parks Navalos
Why do I bring that up? Because that's sovereign money and that is money that could replace the hole that China used to fill.
Scott Wapner
Good point you make. Of course. We will see you later. Christina Parts and novelist. Big day for you and your beat. And I know we'll see on closing bell too. So Wolf, today Steph says we continue to believe that concerns over an AI bubble bursting are overblown, at least for now. And maybe the market needs to come to the Realization of what Wolf thinks it has just to get over this speed bump of I don't want to go as strong as fear, but there was something that had gripped this market over the last week that captivated people to say maybe I need to hit pause on the whole story for a moment and step back and think about it.
Stephanie Link
I think a lot of it was also the debt market concerns too, right? How companies are raising money to afford to be able to spend on this trend. I think it is very important to focus on the companies that are A profitable and B that have a lot of free cash flow even after they're going to spend on all this capex. I look at something like Metta and that one we know everyone's mad at them because they're spending the most.
Scott Wapner
Are you, are you mad at them? By the way, their target today got trimmed to 720 from 830 at canter, which still likes the stock because they reiterate overweight but they did take the target down. Are you Matt?
Stephanie Link
Initially I was when they announced that they were going to see an increase in the spend. But when I saw the results, when I saw the profitability, when I saw impression growth grow 14%, time spent on videos up 30% overall time spent up 5%, pricing power, price per orders, price per ad up 10%, all of these things. Scott, the stock's down 20%.
Scott Wapner
It trades at 26% from its 52 week high.
Stephanie Link
It trades at 18 times forward estimates and it's growing 20% in earnings and 26% in revenues. And I think those revenues are going to continue in the mid-20s. And so yeah, I was a little mad about the stock spend but you have to buy this stock when you get a little bit mad at Zuckerberg spending. That's what I did when the stock fell back to 93 or four years ago, but no back to the free cash flow. It's really, really important that companies, even after all this spend, they are in fact seeing free cash flow and free cash flow growth. And that's Microsoft, that's Alphabet, that's Broadcom, that's Metta across the board. That's why I think it makes a lot of sense to be buying some of these names, especially when they get out of favor and the valuations are more attractive.
Scott Wapner
I thought there was an interesting comment that was made on the bubble question related to the private market and we've raised that on this show. By the way, when you keep seeing the valuations post money of these private companies open I mean, half a trillion dollars, for example, you go down the list of some of these, Google DeepMind CEO said, quote, it feels like there's obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing really being tens of billions of dollars, that seems a little unsustainable. It's not quite logical to me. That's from the CEO of Google DeepMind. Gird Jobsa joins us now out in San Francisco. Because you really have a good lens d into the private markets. You talk to VCs all the time. You know a lot of VCs, you know a lot of founders. This is your wheelhouse. What do you make of that comment?
Deirdre Bosa
And they all say, without a doubt, there is a bubble. You're right, Scott. Even Those founders and VCs that I talk to on a regular basis, these are the true believers. And they will tell you very quickly that there's certainly a bubble in AI right now. Take the billion dollar seed rounds that Hassabas referred to. Both of them led by ex OpenAI executives Ilya Sutskever, Safe Superintelligence ssi. It consists of single webpage, no revenue. Miramoradi's Thinking machines lab raised its first capital with no product. Now, to put that in perspective, the next largest US seed financing, they have been in the 200 to $450 million range, according to Crunchbase. So it does beg this question, why do founders keep building in a bubble? Why do VCs keep backing them? Well, it comes down to this. They think the bigger risk is sitting it out. They see bubbles not as side effects, but as the engine of AI, this huge platform shift that nobody disputes. It's this idea that you need huge money losing experimentation to actually build the capacity this industry will run on later. So put another way, private markets, they're really built for mania and less discipline. This is how the venture capital ecosystem operates. And that may be, Scott, why we're seeing this bifurcation in the public markets. There's more of a demand for some discipline here. They want to see some ROI on all of that spending, but that really doesn't exist in the VC bubble.
Scott Wapner
Do stay with me for a minute. Jim, you have a question for.
Jim Leventhal
I do. Thank you, Deirdre. The word bubble is getting used a lot, so it's on our minds. And there's the question of how far along, if this is a bubble, are we. I refer to today's headline that says that Brookfield Asset Management is raising a 10 billion, $10 billion private fund to invest in AI. Infrastructure. I understand you're talking about venture capital. It's at the smaller end of the spectrum, but still, should that give us comfort, that headline? Or is it just more, Is that, is that perhaps good money after bad?
Deirdre Bosa
I mean there is this sort of like FOMO trade, right. If you don't invest a lot, you are at risk of missing out. This is what's driving VCs. And I think that you're seeing this come into other private markets. Private capital. Public markets as well. Right. This is sort of what has driven the mania because absolutely nobody disputes that AI is going to be as big as the Internet. So just like the Internet, there was a bubble. Bubble, yes, it sort of burst spectacularly, but then the winners were built on top of that infrastructure that was built in the bubble. So it depends, right, if you're picking the winners and losers, you're going to lose a lot through this process. It's how big that risk appetite is to sort of hold strong and make sure that you are getting some of the winners on the way up. Like a master son, by the way, remember him? He sort of lost almost everything in the dot com bubble, but he had one company that saved him and that was Alibaba. That's sort of the model for VCs.
Scott Wapner
Good stuff, Dee. Thank you. Dear Jebosa, speaking of missing out, as much love as I gave you earlier.
Jim Leventhal
Uh oh, what's up?
Scott Wapner
You know, it always comes back around. We learned anything?
Jim Leventhal
Oh, now I see. All right, let's do it.
Scott Wapner
Adobe.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I hate, I hate this stock.
Scott Wapner
Perceived to have missed out. Right. So they're acquiring Semrush. 12 bucks a share, almost $2 billion in total value. It's a brand visibility platform. You just said it. You hate the stock. You hate it because it's going the opposite direction of almost anything related to AI. So when are you going to sell the rest?
Jim Leventhal
Probably pretty soon. And I don't, I don't want to appear tongue in cheek. I mean, a stock has gone down and that really bothers me. And I've got clients, assets at work and my own money at work. I've been perplexed all along about what seems to be good operational results from the company. But the stock market just doesn't care. And at the end of the day, that's what matters. There is an earnings report coming up in two weeks. I may stay for that, but I'm clearly my finger is on the trigger. Of the roughly 30 stocks I own, this is the one that's at the bottom of My affection and I'm sorry. I mean, I'm not happy about anything I'm saying.
Scott Wapner
Okay. No, I know. And the only reason I'm asking you about it because it was in the news relative to the deal. So I felt like I had to get your take on that. So a lot of love on Alphabet, a lot of pain on this one. Speaking of pain, Blue Owl shares, they have been feeling a lot of pain of late. They're down again today. What I think is notable about that move is that the co president was on this network earlier this morning with the gang on Squawk on the street really trying to allay some of the concerns that have been in the market about private credit. They had a deal that this merger of two private credit funds which is now being called off. Leslie Picker broke that story and she joins us now from Las Vegas on what more you can add and whether you think the move in the stock today is interesting as well. Simply related to the fact that the executive came on this network to try and maybe as I said, allay some fears. And I'm not sure what the reaction in the marketplace says about that.
Leslie Picker
Yeah, no, the reaction in the market is interesting, Scott, because right when we first broke the news that the merger was being called off, you saw Blue Owl, the parent company shares spike about 6%. So they've definitely come down since then. I think a lot of it was kind of the, the details here. This idea that just because the merger was called off doesn't mean that the investors in the private fund were able to redeem right away. So just to take a step back, this is the controversial combination of one of its non traded funds with its bigger publicly listed vehicle. And the merger restricted investors from redeeming from semi liquid non traded fund. That's the one that was being acquired until the deal was done. Additionally, investors in the non traded fund would have faced paper losses of about 20%. So as we've been discussing on the show, there's been a recent sell off in publicly traded business development companies or bdc. These are essentially vehicles that are lending capital to small and mid sized businesses. And BDCs have been trading off around just broader private credit concerns, making the timing difficult for the Blue Owl funds to merge.
Joe Terranova
We gave the investors subject to their vote the option if they would like to roll into the public. And based on where it's trading now and all the noise, we decide it's not the right time. We had not previously been getting calls. In fact, we met every single redemption last quarter. So it wasn't a question of us being forced pushed to do it. This is a preordained timetable set many years ago and we thought it was the right time. It's turned out not to be the right time.
Leslie Picker
Now that the merger has been called off, that non traded OBDC2 fund will allow investors to who want to redeem to do so starting in Q1. Liquidity had only been on a quarterly basis before the merger. So as we talked about Scott, shares at the parent company blue owl slumping 7% Monday gained a little bit yesterday gained in the premarket on news of this merger being terminated and now you can see they are back down 2% again.
Scott Wapner
Scott, and the reason before I let you go is you're in Vegas because you just spoke to David Solomon, you're at a Goldman event and you asked him about private credit and recall for us what his answer was about the concerns, if he had any.
Leslie Picker
Yeah, so one of his his big points with regards to private credit is that we still haven't seen a truce credit cycle that this kind of industry has been tested through and to see the winners and losers that could come from a real credit cycle. He said there are one offs essentially. And just a reminder, Scott, Goldman has a pretty sizable private credit business itself. So this is something that he knows from his own business as well as just clients that they work with as well. And so he said that they're basically these one off situations. But we haven't seen kind of the full extent of the industry at this scale given that we haven't seen a credit cycle since it's been at this scale.
Scott Wapner
Leslie, thank you very much. Good stuff today. Great stuff in fact. That's Leslie Picker out in Las Vegas. Coming up we'll have more committee moves to tell you about. First though, the state of the consumer. It's front and center. The first big wave of retailers reporting their results. Today. We got the winners, got the losers, we got the debate. Next, Your commute. Day in and day out, the same old route, but also the perfect time to hear what's new in blockchain and crypto. Level up your commute and join Ripple for conversations with some of the best in the business on how institutions around the globe are being reshaped and revolutionized with blockchain and crypto. From digital asset infrastructure to payments, custody and even our stablecoin rlusd. Listen to special commuter editions of Blockstars, the podcast hosted by David Schwartz.
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Bryn Talkington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
What are you doing with the stock now? Does this. I shouldn't ask you. That's a dumb question. Has this earnings report swayed you in any way to have more conviction to hold it or to sell it?
Stephanie Link
Well, I did sell a lot last week. I know about that.
Scott Wapner
You said you might sell the rest of it.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean, I probably will because I think it's dead money. This new CEO, it's going to take a lot of time. We have to see what their investments are going to be in terms of inventory, labor, capex, etc. The only thing I could say, Scott, the reason the stock's not down more. Well, it's already down a lot. But the stock's trading at about 11 times earnings and it yields 5%, which I think is very safe and secure. And also the fact that the whisper numbers for comps were negative four, so they came in at minus 2.7%. That's not good. There's not really anything good here. But I can just say that this turnaround is going to take a lot longer than expected. And which is why the stock sold off when the new CEO was announced. Because he was a lifer at Target. People wanted someone from outside. Richard Dixon of Gap was mentioned as a possible candidate. So. So it was disappointing because we need change and we need change fast. And I just don't think you're going to see change fast.
Joe Terranova
What did you think about the capex coming in 25% higher and them saying they're going to remodel stores? Should they be working on shipping times and getting delivery faster?
Stephanie Link
I mean, there's a million things they have to work on. I mean, a million. They got to get inventory, right. That's number one. They got to get labor right?
Joe Terranova
Actually, but are you comfortable with them saying, okay, we're going to spend 5 billion. That's up 25%.
Stephanie Link
Have to. They have to. Joe, do you want to own the stock?
Joe Terranova
That's why it's dead money.
Stephanie Link
That's right. I mean, I think you could. I mean, that's why I sold some last week. I'm very small position and I said either way it was going to be a small position headed into this. I don't need to own it. I would much rather if, like Gap is weak tomorrow. Yeah, I would much rather buy that. I'm going to buy Deckers back in January. Like, I have way other better names.
Scott Wapner
With better brand management for context sake.
Bryn Talkington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
You've owned this stock for a long time. I have how many? Like, when I say a long time, what are we talking, five years? At least.
Stephanie Link
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
If not longer.
Stephanie Link
I made a lot of money.
Scott Wapner
Oh, I'm not suggesting you didn't in.
Stephanie Link
That period of time. And then I've lost a lot of.
Scott Wapner
Point is that you've had this stock for a long time.
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
So it's, it says something in and of itself. Yeah. That you've come to the point where you're like, yeah, I'll probably just sell the rest.
Stephanie Link
You know, they're not getting traffic now, though, that. So in the past five years, like the case was, they at least had people going into the stores, but they weren't buying as much discretionary. They were buying more consumables and they were going to Wal Mart instead and all that. So. But they had the traffic. Now they don't have the traffic. So that's the problem. And they started not having the traffic two quarters ago. That's when I should have.
Scott Wapner
Why, Joe, you're asking Steph a question. Well, you got the Capex. And shouldn't they be focused on delivery times? None of that matters. Solid, relevant. They don't have the traffic. The stock can't go up because their sales continue to go down.
Joe Terranova
Okay, well, they don't have the traffic in the stores, but they also have to work on the speed of delivery.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, but I mean, that's not going to move the needle.
Joe Terranova
You can't say it's not moving the.
Scott Wapner
Needle in the needle.
Joe Terranova
E Commerce moves the needle. They need to move the needle in some direction. Yeah, right now they're basically 0 for 4.
Stephanie Link
Well, digital is 19% of total revenue.
Scott Wapner
I'm not saying digital isn't important, but improving shipping times. No, no, no. You're talking about improving shipping times.
Joe Terranova
So if you order something from, from Walmart, you're getting it a heck of a lot quicker than if you order something from Target.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, but you need, you just need.
Scott Wapner
More people ordering stuff. You need buying stuff.
Stephanie Link
You need people in the stores.
Scott Wapner
Steph, I got you. I'm with you.
Stephanie Link
Thank you.
Scott Wapner
Tjx. I'll give Joe. Tjx. They beat. They raise their forecast to the stock is why is the stock not doing much on that?
Joe Terranova
It's at an all time high today. What else? Can you pull that back a little bit more, please?
Scott Wapner
Thank you.
Joe Terranova
Stocks at an all time high.
Scott Wapner
All right.
Joe Terranova
It's a beat in a race. TJ Maxx, very strong. Marshalls, very strong. They're benefiting from their ability to pick from inventory that's being sold off from full price and they're selling it at a discount.
Scott Wapner
How their delivery times in an environment.
Joe Terranova
In an environment where. I know E Commerce doesn't matter. It's 2020.
Scott Wapner
I didn't say it didn't matter.
Joe Terranova
We're taking our horses to the store.
Scott Wapner
It didn't matter. Right.
Stephanie Link
Okay. So they have the traffic.
Joe Terranova
They have. Yeah, they have the traffic. There you go. And they have an all time high.
Scott Wapner
All right. Great stuff. We'll get the headlines now with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha.
Stephanie Link
Hey, Scott.
Bryn Talkington
The Justice Department says the grand jury.
Stephanie Link
That charged former FBI Director James Comey.
Bryn Talkington
Was not presented with a copy of the final indictment.
Stephanie Link
Prosecutors divulged the information this morning.
Scott Wapner
Under questioning from the judge overseeing the case. Comey's lawyers argued the admission is grounds.
Stephanie Link
For dismissal of the case, which charges.
Bryn Talkington
Him with lying to Congress. The World Health Organization reduced its workforce.
Scott Wapner
By roughly a quarter, or about 1300 positions. The WHO's director says the Trump administration's.
Bryn Talkington
Decision to pull out of the organization.
Scott Wapner
Along with other cuts from top donors, has left the UN health agency with a $500 million gap for its 2026, 2027 budget. And billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer announced today he will jump into a crowded race for California's governor. The former 2020 presidential candidate joins eight Democrats and two Republicans in a bid to replace term limited Governor Gavin Newsom. That's going to be one to watch. All right, Scott. Bertha, thank you. Bertha Coombs. We do have some breaking news. We go to Steve Liesman for that. Steve, you are on the phone, which means this is urgent. What is it, Scott?
Steve Liesman
We have some news about the data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And there's some good news, but I think mostly bad news here. Let me go through it here there will not be an October jobs report as we know it. The next jobs report we get obviously one tomorrow for September. But the next job is report will be the November jobs report that will come out on December 16th instead of December 5th. And then they will fold in what they know of the October employment situation into that November report. Let me point out, I think the significance of this right away, Scott, is that the Federal Reserve will meet six days earlier without the jobs data from October and November as they meet. This has implications for both sides of the coin in terms of cutting or not cutting. There are many who say the Fed would be brought to heel on the cutting story by the weak jobs data. Well, they won't have that jobs data other than what they get tomorrow. They've also cancelled the jobs the JOLTS report for September that is also cancelled. What else can I tell you here? The October Jolts report will come out December 9, so the Fed will have that for its meeting. And I don't see anything here, Scott, about the plans to release inflation data at this moment other than September ppi which was previously announced. So just to underscore the or to highlight the highlights here, Scott, is that we're going to get the November jobs report on December 16th and that will include the establishment side of the payroll survey which is the one that gives you the payroll growth. But there will be no unemployment report for October. Looks like we'll get a regular November jobs report, but it will come out on December 16, not December 5 as normally scheduled.
Scott Wapner
They should though the being they being the Fed. I mean they should have other avenues to get a decent read into what the employment picture looks like though, Steve, it's not like they're, they're completely flying blind here. Correct?
Steve Liesman
That's correct. There is other data. I will point out, Scott, that that data is not really tested in terms of how definitive it is. We have the ADP data over time it matches with we with the BLS report. And the other issue is that look, the BLS data is the gold standard for everything, which doesn't say much about it because we all know it has its problems with our visions, but it's the one that is the most you can get the most confidence in in terms of directing policy. So yeah, we will have jobless claims data which is helpful on the, on the firing side. If that were to spike up, that would be something that would provide the weakness that those who are advocating for cuts are looking for. The JOLTS data can help a little bit, but really it's the BLS data and the jobs data that allows the Fed to move with a certain amount of confidence.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, of course, Steve, thank you very much for that. Steve Liesman, the movement in the market, I mean the implication, obviously you're pointing out to look at the dollar, which is, which is higher, you, yields look like they move slightly higher. So if you're saying, well, if they're not going to have the data, maybe it's less likely that they're going to be able to cut based on the data, that would be a little hawkish.
Joe Terranova
But I mean, we could have an opinion of that. But the market, the market is actually pricing in less of a chance for a rate cut in December right now. And it's being reflected both the dollar.
Scott Wapner
And the ten year.
Joe Terranova
It's being reflected, I think most importantly in the dollar.
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's do this. We're going to take a quick, quick break and we have a big move from Bryn Talkington. We will discuss next. Think of your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office. So why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, Crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple.
Deirdre Bosa
Our state has changed a lot in.
Stephanie Link
The last 140 years.
Deirdre Bosa
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Scott Wapner
Welcome to Walgreens.
Christina Parks Navalos
Looking for a holiday gift?
Joe Terranova
Sort of.
Scott Wapner
My cousin Freddie showed up to surprise us.
Bryn Talkington
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
Joe Terranova
Exactly.
Scott Wapner
So now I have to get him a gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So if we could make it something really nice but also not break the bank, that'd be perfect.
Bryn Talkington
How about a keurig for 50% off.
Joe Terranova
Bingo savings all season? The holiday road is long.
Steve Liesman
We're with you all the way.
Joe Terranova
Walgreens offer valid November 26 through December 27.
Scott Wapner
Exclusions apply. All right, we're back with committee moves and I said we had a big one from brand and in fact we do you sold Uber. Wow. Why?
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, so I bought Uber beginning of this year, early last year in high 60s, low 70s. Great company. Think Dar is incredible. I thought it was very undervalued. What I've been watching those since really September is Uber has hit $100 about five times, keeps getting rejected. And so to me it's like, okay, $100 is ceiling. I know it's a great company, but I sold it last week around 94. It looks like it's going straight to the 200 day moving average at 86. So I just like I'm going to take my profits, go home because when stocks get to that outer earth orbit and they can't punch through, you got to be ready to sit there for a while. And so I just thought I'd take my profits. Profits if it does go back, happens to go back into the 70s, I'll definitely look to buy the gain because it is a great company.
Scott Wapner
But are you worried about, and I feel like you've, you've voiced these opinions before. You know, the robo taxi competition with Tesla and others. This stock, after having an amazing move, had an amazing leveling off. And then this decline that we've witnessed. Right there it is, is that tells the story. Tell me more.
Bryn Talkington
Yep, I think that realistically Tesla will do Tesla's things. I don't think Elon's going to share it. So put Tesla aside, they're going to do their own robotaxi. Uber is going to continue to benefit. They will have partnerships with other companies on this driverless side. And obviously if they can take the driver out of the car, that increases their margins. But this is so long term. And so I think that's a narrative that, that's not even remotely going to come true anytime soon. But I do think though that investors say the stock at 100, it's not going to go above it. And so now you're going to go back to this like long Tesla short, Uber short Tesla long, long, you know, the other way around. And so, so I do not think that even touches the robotaxi, etc. Even touches earnings for years on out. And I think ultimately be positive because they will benefit because they do have the best, best ecosystem.
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's debate it here. Steph, you own it. Joe, you own it. I know, but Steph, want to hear from you here.
Stephanie Link
Well, the stock's up 48% so good for Brent. She's probably up more than that. I look at the valuation, Scott, it's actually pretty attractive at 16 times forward estimates, you're getting earnings last quarter group 159%. Revenues up 20%. You had user growth up 17%. Frequency up 4. It's a verb. I've said it before. You want to own verbs, right? You own the Google. You know you want to own an Uber. And I think they are the dominant with the best management team. And so look, I have no problem taking profits. I just think that there's more to go and I'm willing to be patient.
Joe Terranova
Joe, a personally long at 36 from 2023. 80 is my level that breaks below 80. That is where I would get out. That was previously a significant resistance area. It's now a support area. I'm trying to wait. The stock is basically running in place since May. I thought we were going to break out after the most recent earnings report and we should have and we did not. And I just think it's indicative of the overall environment right now, whether it's Palantir or an Uber. You're getting all these earnings reports that look really good, but the price action doesn't follow.
Stephanie Link
They do have a $10 billion buyback. They're buying 9% of their shares outstanding back. So that's nice support.
Scott Wapner
Let me get you on another move, Joe, real quick. You mentioned the other day that you were trimming Apple, which is why I didn't want to make too big of a deal today that you sold the rest of it personally. But you still have exposure in the Jyoti. You explained to all of our viewers already why you had trimmed it just to get out of it personally, because you're exposed to it in the, in the etf. So I don't want to get into that. But the profit, the proceeds have gone into the gld. That's the story I want you to.
Joe Terranova
Tell us at the gld. I'm not liking what I'm seeing overseas. You're seeing the long end of the Japanese bond market begin to back up. You're seeing the dollar which is beginning to rally. So I'm wondering if we turn the calendar into 2026. Is that conversation re engage itself? Once again, precious metals have pulled back. They've corrected. They've pulled back into very supportive moving averages. The GLD. I'd probably stop myself out somewhere, somewhere around 363, 364 ish. But I thought this was a point of entry that had a low risk, potentially high reward.
Scott Wapner
You don't feel like this is like a clear sign that whatever momentum was behind gold is now Leveling off because this is has tracked that for, for obvious reasons.
Joe Terranova
So it's, so it's interesting and I've talked about this a little bit. When you look at the macro momentum assets, it was first the dollar in September, December, then it was crypto in early October and then it was gold to your point in October that rolled over. What we're seeing in the last couple of days is while the dollar is continuing to rally while crypto is accelerating to the downside, there's a degree of resiliency in the precious metals market and that scores near term momentum a little bit higher. So I like that resiliency and that relative outperformance versus its macro moment momentum peers which is continuing their reversal of trends.
Scott Wapner
That was good insight.
Joe Terranova
Thank you.
Scott Wapner
Appreciate it. Give a little pat on the back.
Steve Liesman
All right.
Scott Wapner
Take the stick up a little high occasionally and give him a little pat on the back.
Joe Terranova
Seeing me string Jimmy.
Scott Wapner
All right, Mike Santoli, he's next. I welcome back senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us for his midday word. I'll just you tell me what you want to talk about.
Joe Terranova
Well, it's the market is still kind of day to day in terms of whether it feels like we've done enough of a flush to the downside. I do think the high beta, most aggressive parts of the market. A lot of capital got in Chase released out of their markets not comfortable with Bitcoin making new lows. It's down 3, 4% again. It still needs to monitor that as a sign of portfolio stress, perceived liquidity issues. Funny to see in video you get this little bit of a bounce trying to pull neutral. It's right at the 50 day moving average, basically where it was three months ago before the prior report. Very difficult to handicap how it goes. But what's really interesting about the trade is how all of a sudden you guys are talking about alpha bet before they're handing the bell to Alphabet. Everybody else suffers. Microsoft trades terribly. Matter keeps going down and so I think that shows you that the market is less generous about figuring that all the spending is going to be okay. Nets out pretty well for Nvidia probably in the near term. But I think the market in general is hoping it gets away with just this little 5% intraday pullback from the high which we hit yesterday. But I think you'd be lucky if that was was all it was and we went up from here.
Scott Wapner
If you're hoping, I'm sorry if you're hoping for an everything rally between now and the end of the year you need tonight to go well.
Joe Terranova
You need it to go well. Definitely not to kind of, you know, set off any trip wires. And then tomorrow, the jobs report, I mean, I do think the market quickly, as Joe said, repriced December as less likely to have a cut. That's why you need reassurance on the consumer along the way from all these earnings.
Scott Wapner
All right, I'm a C on closing bell. Look forward to take in our viewers together into that print for Nvidia. Up next, big buying opportunities, at least according to a bunch of firms on the street because there's a lot of bullish calls out there on individual names. We'll kick them around next. All right, we are back. Let's do our calls of the day. GE Aerospace reiterated by Deutsche bank says 360 is the target. And Stephanie Link likes that call.
Stephanie Link
I do. But I don't know if I'd be buying it here. Scott. The valuation is pretty rich and it's up 79% year to date. But it's really about commercial services, which is 70% of the revenue. And it carries high margins, much better visibility, good free cash flow. So I like the story. Just don't think I'd be buying it here. I wait for a pullback.
Scott Wapner
All right, Joe, what about doordash? Would you be buying it here? Upgraded to a buy the target to 260 from 220 at Jefferies. Nope.
Joe Terranova
I cannot advise buying it here. And I've advised buying it in the past. It was one of the favored names in consumer discretionary for the better part of 2025. We still own it. The momentum is clearly broken down. Last earnings report was awful. I don't want to be catching what could be a falling knife.
Scott Wapner
You feel like you took a puck in the teeth?
Joe Terranova
Oh, for sure.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Joe Terranova
I do.
Scott Wapner
All right. Boeing reiterated by UBS price target to 75 step.
Stephanie Link
So this one I would buy. I would add to it. It's pulled back after the quarter 77 7x charge. That was overshadowed by a very good quarter in commercial deliveries. Backlog free cash flow. This one I would definitely be buying.
Scott Wapner
What about Freeport Brin sector outperform from perform at Scotiabank. You own it it.
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, I think the stock has really settled in after that catastrophic mudslide in the Grasberg Clinic. I mean Grasburg Clinic in the mine. And so I mean I like this stock here is actually going to be my final trade because I think you're going to see copper prices continuing to be strong and the stock has Settled in here around 4041.
Scott Wapner
Elanco Animal Health. Upgraded to a buy from hold 25 is the target at Argus.
Stephanie Link
Stuff then. This stock has had a nice run, too. It's up 85% year to date. The turnaround is definitely evident. Stocks still cheap. It's executing way better than Zoetis, but I prefer Zoetis, given that it's slacked.
Scott Wapner
Give me insight real quick, Joe. Target to 120.
Joe Terranova
Jefferies BioPharma Oncology. Really strong earnings report recently plays into the health care theme. That along with Insulet are two names I would own.
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. We'll do finals after this break. All right, Stacey Raskon, Malcolm Methridge, Dan Greenhouse, Lauren Goodwin, Sherry Paul. That's who's joining us on closing bell today. 3 o' clock Eastern Time. It'll be the final stretch, the final stretch into Nvidia's earnings in overtime. So we got a lot to talk about and I hope you'll join us then. Three o', clock, Britain. I know you'll be watching because you own Nvidia. What's your final trade?
Bryn Talkington
Definitely Freeport. But you can also sell the February 45 calls, collect $2.15 if it gets called away, it would be a 14 and a half percent total return in three months. So not bad.
Scott Wapner
All right. Good stuff. Thank you to the good farmer, Cisco System.
Jim Leventhal
Speaking of farming, this thing is a workhorse. I mean, this is a Clydesdale of a stock.
Scott Wapner
Is it a deer or a Komatsu or whatever you have Clydesdale?
Jim Leventhal
All of the above.
Scott Wapner
You don't want to say. Steph Quick.
Stephanie Link
Teradyne. I like semi test equipment, Joe.
Joe Terranova
Jimmy should own McKesson all time high reasonable valuation.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so that does it for us. We will see you at 3 o' clock Eastern Time. Take you right into that Nvidia report. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Deirdre Bosa
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates andor subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy. And it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.
On this episode hosted by Scott Wapner, the CNBC Halftime Report investment committee dives into the stakes surrounding Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings release. The panelists debate whether Nvidia’s results will fuel an “everything rally” in stocks, discuss AI-related market risks, break down sector moves (including retail, private credit, and tech), and assess individual stock stories—from Alphabet’s resilience to Uber’s technical ceiling. Colorful moments abound as the group debates bubbles, deals, and key trades, all with their characteristic market-savvy banter and candor.
Bryn Talkington's Take:
"Alphabet is the juxtaposition to OpenAI... $102 billion last quarter in revenues... Gemini from a retail perspective is gaining share... Google rolled out private AI cloud and Google Shopping is getting better. High margins, high revenues, and still a pretty moderate P/E relative to its growth rate." ([06:26])
Jim Leventhal's Victory Lap:
"The call you made on this name was nothing short of extraordinary...In the face of negativity you said that’s ridiculous. I’m holding on for dear life here—and it’s paid great rewards." — Scott Wapner ([08:03])
Memorable Statistic:
Christina Parks Navalos:
“$64 billion for the guide... it’s really about the sustainability of demand... Jensen Huang revealed $500 billion in cumulative orders for next year—a change of tone. People are not expecting a big blowout earnings.” ([11:08])
“Nvidia is a more tempered, predictable giant... Shares tend to fall the day after earnings, even when they beat.” ([11:59])
CEO Jensen Huang insists the shift to GPU computing is “justified” despite bubble talk.
"Everything going into that transition... is justified." ([12:26])
Further insight:
Sovereign money (such as Saudi Arabia) buying GPUs may fill gaps left by lost China sales ([14:25]).
Stephanie Link:
Importance of focusing on companies with free cash flow and real profitability (citing Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Broadcom) even as capex surges ([15:14]).
Deirdre Bosa provides the VC perspective:
"Even the true believers will tell you there’s certainly a bubble in AI right now... billion-dollar seed rounds with no revenue, no product. Private markets are built for mania and less discipline. This may be why we’re seeing more demand for discipline in public markets." ([17:59])
Jim Leventhal:
"Bubble is being used a lot. If this is a bubble, how far along are we? Is private investment in AI infrastructure good money after bad?" ([19:22])
Bosa:
"VCs see the bigger risk as sitting it out... you lose on most bets, but one win like Alibaba can make it worth it." ([19:53])
Target’s Struggles:
"Turnaround is going to take a lot longer than expected... people wanted someone from outside as CEO, not a lifer... they don’t have the traffic [in stores] anymore." — Stephanie Link ([28:38])
On Capex Choices:
Debate on whether Target’s increased spending is well-directed when delivery speed lags and store traffic sinks ([29:33]).
TJX Success:
TJX (owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls) is at all-time highs due to strong in-store traffic and ability to source discounted inventory ([31:54]).
Bryn Talkington:
"Uber’s hit $100 five times, keeps getting rejected... sold last week at $94. If it goes back into the 70s I’d buy it again. Great company, just profit-taking." ([39:21])
Stephanie Link’s Counter:
"Valuation is attractive at 16x forward... you want to own verbs, right? Uber is the dominant player with the best management team." ([41:23])
“If you’re hoping for an everything rally… you need tonight to go well.”
— Scott Wapner, on the stakes for Nvidia’s earnings ([46:02])
“To the extent in May we were worried about [Alphabet] losing search dominance… they have the resources to compete and excel.”
— Jim Leventhal ([08:39])
On the AI private market bubble:
“Private markets are built for mania and less discipline… That may be why there’s more demand for discipline in the public markets.”
— Deirdre Bosa ([17:59])
“Uber’s hit $100 about five times, keeps getting rejected. When stocks get to that outer earth orbit and can’t punch through, you gotta be ready to sit for a while.”
— Bryn Talkington ([39:21])
The conversation is candid, at times competitive but collegial, with smart debate over sector trends, risks, and where value still exists in a market at a crossroads. The analysts blend data with anecdote, and there’s a constant tension between taking profits and sticking with leadership names.
This episode arms you with critical context ahead of Nvidia earnings, a nuanced understanding of how tech bubbles form (and where), and sharp insights from veteran investors on both trades and themes driving late-2025 markets. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, the play-by-play analysis offers actionable takeaways for your strategy.