CNBC Halftime Report: Looking Ahead to Nvidia Earnings (11/19/25)

Episode Overview

On this episode hosted by Scott Wapner, the CNBC Halftime Report investment committee dives into the stakes surrounding Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings release. The panelists debate whether Nvidia’s results will fuel an “everything rally” in stocks, discuss AI-related market risks, break down sector moves (including retail, private credit, and tech), and assess individual stock stories—from Alphabet’s resilience to Uber’s technical ceiling. Colorful moments abound as the group debates bubbles, deals, and key trades, all with their characteristic market-savvy banter and candor.

Key Discussion Themes & Insights

1. The "Everything Rally": Can Nvidia Ignite the Next Market Surge?

• Setting the Stage
  • The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are rebounding after several down sessions ([00:57]).
  • JP Morgan’s trading desk sees the fundamental story unchanged—suggesting potential for renewed highs if Nvidia and jobs data cooperate.

The Panel Weighs In

• Joe Terranova:
  "You’re more inclined to take off some risk... [the] chase for performance began. Maybe it’s going to end a lot sooner than I expected it to, but it needs a catalyst and hopefully tonight Nvidia is one of the reasons that helps." ([01:43])
• Stephanie Link:
  "We have a lot of momentum in this economy... Nvidia is 7% of the S&P 500 but the food chain is huge... it implies so many different sectors in this market." ([03:21])
• Jim Leventhal:
  "A lot of this artificial intelligence trade... is predicated on rapid growth in revenue and earnings... The biggest barometer of whether that growth will come through or not is tonight’s earnings report from Nvidia... I do expect that they will beat on all metrics and raise guidance." ([04:55])

Market’s Reliance on Nvidia

• Discussion highlights that Nvidia's performance goes beyond tech, influencing industrials, utilities, and more. A bad or even mediocre report could short-circuit the chance for a broader market rally.

2. Alphabet (Google): From Negativity to New Highs

• Bryn Talkington's Take:
  "Alphabet is the juxtaposition to OpenAI... $102 billion last quarter in revenues... Gemini from a retail perspective is gaining share... Google rolled out private AI cloud and Google Shopping is getting better. High margins, high revenues, and still a pretty moderate P/E relative to its growth rate." ([06:26])

• Jim Leventhal's Victory Lap:
  "The call you made on this name was nothing short of extraordinary...In the face of negativity you said that’s ridiculous. I’m holding on for dear life here—and it’s paid great rewards." — Scott Wapner ([08:03])

  • Leventhal responds:
    "It's felt good. If there’s a lesson, it’s the power of 'big'—this is a big company with a lot of resources... two earnings reports have indicated search is growing, and now it should grow more with Gemini 3. For the immediate future, Gemini 3 is the lead horse." ([08:39], [09:50])

Memorable Statistic:

• Since the May “Eddy Cue selloff,” Alphabet stock has risen 80% ([09:08]).

3. Nvidia Earnings: Why They Matter So Much

The Numbers & Expectations

• Christina Parks Navalos:
  “$64 billion for the guide... it’s really about the sustainability of demand... Jensen Huang revealed $500 billion in cumulative orders for next year—a change of tone. People are not expecting a big blowout earnings.” ([11:08])

  “Nvidia is a more tempered, predictable giant... Shares tend to fall the day after earnings, even when they beat.” ([11:59])

The "Bubble" Question

• CEO Jensen Huang insists the shift to GPU computing is “justified” despite bubble talk.
  "Everything going into that transition... is justified." ([12:26])

• Further insight:
  Sovereign money (such as Saudi Arabia) buying GPUs may fill gaps left by lost China sales ([14:25]).

4. The AI Bubble: Is It Only in Private Markets?

• Stephanie Link:
  Importance of focusing on companies with free cash flow and real profitability (citing Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Broadcom) even as capex surges ([15:14]).

• Deirdre Bosa provides the VC perspective:
  "Even the true believers will tell you there’s certainly a bubble in AI right now... billion-dollar seed rounds with no revenue, no product. Private markets are built for mania and less discipline. This may be why we’re seeing more demand for discipline in public markets." ([17:59])

• Jim Leventhal:
  "Bubble is being used a lot. If this is a bubble, how far along are we? Is private investment in AI infrastructure good money after bad?" ([19:22])

• Bosa:
  "VCs see the bigger risk as sitting it out... you lose on most bets, but one win like Alibaba can make it worth it." ([19:53])

5. Retail—Winners & Losers: Target and TJX

• Target’s Struggles:
  "Turnaround is going to take a lot longer than expected... people wanted someone from outside as CEO, not a lifer... they don’t have the traffic [in stores] anymore." — Stephanie Link ([28:38])

• On Capex Choices:
  Debate on whether Target’s increased spending is well-directed when delivery speed lags and store traffic sinks ([29:33]).

• TJX Success:
  TJX (owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls) is at all-time highs due to strong in-store traffic and ability to source discounted inventory ([31:54]).

6. Private Credit & Blue Owl: Under the Microscope

• Leslie Picker on Blue Owl’s called-off merger:
  Highlights the challenges in the private credit space and investors’ concerns over restricted redemptions ([23:06]).
  • David Solomon (Goldman Sachs) notes private credit hasn’t been tested in a true credit cycle, making the sector’s durability uncertain ([25:34]).

7. Macro—Jobs Data and Fed Implications

• Steve Liesman:
  Reports the next BLS jobs report will combine October and November data due to delays, and the Fed will lack some labor data ahead of its meeting ([33:52]).
• Joe Terranova:
  "The market is actually pricing in less of a chance for a rate cut in December right now... reflected in the dollar and ten-year." ([37:03])

8. Individual Trades and Stock Moves

Uber Sale

• Bryn Talkington:
  "Uber’s hit $100 five times, keeps getting rejected... sold last week at $94. If it goes back into the 70s I’d buy it again. Great company, just profit-taking." ([39:21])

• Stephanie Link’s Counter:
  "Valuation is attractive at 16x forward... you want to own verbs, right? Uber is the dominant player with the best management team." ([41:23])

Joe Terranova on Gold (GLD)

• "Precious metals pulled back. The GLD at this point has a low risk, possibly high reward. I like that resiliency and relative outperformance vs. macro momentum peers." ([42:59])

9. Analyst Calls: Quickfire Opinions

• GE Aerospace: Rich valuation, strong services, wait for pullback (Stephanie Link) ([47:05])
• DoorDash: Downward momentum after bad report—don’t buy here (Joe Terranova) ([47:24])
• Boeing: Post-charge, still a strong add (Stephanie Link) ([47:50])
• Freeport-McMoRan: Settled after mine issues, copper bullish (Bryn Talkington) ([48:06])
• Elanco Animal Health: Strong turnaround, but Link prefers Zoetis ([48:30])
• Insight: Biopharma oncology a strong healthcare play (Joe Terranova) ([48:46])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you’re hoping for an everything rally… you need tonight to go well.”
  — Scott Wapner, on the stakes for Nvidia’s earnings ([46:02])

• “To the extent in May we were worried about [Alphabet] losing search dominance… they have the resources to compete and excel.”
  — Jim Leventhal ([08:39])

• On the AI private market bubble:
  “Private markets are built for mania and less discipline… That may be why there’s more demand for discipline in the public markets.”
  — Deirdre Bosa ([17:59])

• “Uber’s hit $100 about five times, keeps getting rejected. When stocks get to that outer earth orbit and can’t punch through, you gotta be ready to sit for a while.”
  — Bryn Talkington ([39:21])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Nvidia: Everything Rally Stakes – 00:57 to 05:39
• Alphabet Stock Debate – 06:26 to 10:33
• Nvidia Earnings Deep Dive – 11:08 to 14:33
• Private AI Market Bubble – 17:59 to 20:46
• Target & TJX Retail Segment – 27:27 to 32:33
• Blue Owl Private Credit Story – 23:06 to 26:18
• Jobs Data/Fed Outlook – 33:52 to 37:16
• Uber Sale & Committee Trades – 39:21 to 44:27

Market Tone & Panel Dynamics

The conversation is candid, at times competitive but collegial, with smart debate over sector trends, risks, and where value still exists in a market at a crossroads. The analysts blend data with anecdote, and there’s a constant tension between taking profits and sticking with leadership names.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode arms you with critical context ahead of Nvidia earnings, a nuanced understanding of how tech bubbles form (and where), and sharp insights from veteran investors on both trades and themes driving late-2025 markets. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, the play-by-play analysis offers actionable takeaways for your strategy.