Halftime Report: Markets on Edge – June 13, 2025
Podcast Information:
- Title: Halftime Report
- Host: Scott Wapner, CNBC
- Description: Halftime Report is CNBC’s midday market coverage, featuring insights from top investors and financial experts. The podcast airs live on weekdays from 12-1 PM ET on CNBC TV.
- Episode: Markets on Edge 6/13/25
- Release Date: June 13, 2025
1. Introduction
Scott Wapner opens the Halftime Report by addressing the current volatile market conditions influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions. The primary focus of this episode is the fallout from Israel's attacks on Iran and its immediate and long-term impacts on various asset classes, including stocks, oil, and gold.
2. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact
Israel-Iran Conflict and Market Reactions
The episode centers on the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, assessing how these developments are shaking global markets. Scott Wapner highlights that oil prices have surged to their highest levels since January (02:00), driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Prices and Inflationary Pressures
Steve Weissen comments on the historical context of Middle Eastern conflicts, noting, “Every single one of [the past flare-ups] has been a buying opportunity” (02:32). He emphasizes that despite the current surge, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to factor oil prices into their policy decisions, viewing the spike as transitory.
Market Resilience and Diversification
Rob Seachin adds that oil and gas remain essential for portfolio diversification, stating, “If you're a trader, yes, but this is also why as a long-term investor I have those stocks in my portfolio” (04:14). He underscores the importance of holding high-quality energy and gold assets to mitigate risks.
Broader Geopolitical Risks
Shannon Saccocia introduces a broader geopolitical perspective, suggesting that ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China could have more significant and lasting economic implications than the immediate Israel-Iran conflict. She warns, “Any implications around the potential for this to derail or delay further negotiations with the Chinese... could potentially make this a longer tail than what we've seen historically” (06:12).
3. Trading Strategies and Market Reactions
Bill Baruch on Institutional Positioning
Bill Baruch discusses institutional positioning, highlighting that underweight risk remains prevalent. He notes, “What causes assets to go higher is fund flows” (21:11), suggesting that resolution of current geopolitical tensions could drive institutional investment into the markets.
Mike Santoli’s Insights on Commodities
Mike Santoli shares strategies for trading in volatile markets, particularly in gold and crude oil. He advises, “If you're a trader right now and you've been long crude oil or you've been long energy and some exposures there, it's important to capitalize on it and look to move on” (09:13). Santoli emphasizes the importance of monetizing gains ahead of uncertain weekend news flows.
4. Investment Views
Brad Gerstner’s Bullish Outlook
Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital presents a bullish case driven by the AI super cycle, strong earnings growth, and anticipated rate cuts. He states, “We have the AI super cycle... both the top line and the earnings... rate cuts coming in the back half of the year” (12:00).
Steve Weissen’s Skepticism
Contrasting Gerstner’s optimism, Steve Weissen expresses caution, noting, “There’s nothing that has happened. As a matter of fact, it's only gotten worse in terms of keeping CEOs from deploying meaningful capital in Capex” (14:08). He points out that except for AI-related investments, overall capital expenditure by companies remains subdued.
Debate on AI’s Impact
Scott counters by citing significant AI investments, such as Amazon’s recent $25 billion commitment, to which Weissen responds, “It's making the point is that as you started, it's a very unique area, right. And AI... they remain my top positions” (15:24). This exchange underscores the divided opinions on the sustainability of AI-driven growth.
5. IPO Market and Stock Picks
Revival of the IPO Market
Steve Weissen highlights a resurgence in the IPO market, mentioning successful recent offerings like Voyager, Chime, Circle, and eToro: “The IPO market is coming back. That is actually one of the risks when you see so much supply coming to the market” (25:09). He warns that increased IPO activity could pressure weaker stocks as capital flows into new listings.
Highlighted Stocks:
- Netflix: Targeting $14.25 with resilience through diverse revenue streams. Weissen calls it a “perma hold” and praises its defense and offense balance (28:05).
- IBM: Up 71% in a year, transitioning to a software-led AI business and quantum computing player (35:30).
- Suncorp and Eli Lilly: Both on strong multi-day win streaks, with Eli Lilly highlighted for its dominance in GLP1s and secular growth opportunities (35:58).
6. Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
Mixed Retail Performance
The panel discusses the mixed results from retail companies, noting significant declines in stocks like DAX, Lulu, and Gap Stores. Weissen emphasizes the importance of monitoring consumer behavior, especially rising credit card debt: “Consumers putting more and more groceries on their credit card bills” (42:08).
Impact on Visa and MasterCard
Visa and MasterCard face pressure as major retailers explore issuing their own stablecoins. Rob Seachin suggests, “PayPal actually has its own. If you think about how long it's going to take regulatory wise for Walmart and Amazon to get into this business... this is an opportunity for Visa and MasterCard” (42:54). However, Bill Baruch advises caution, noting that despite their quality, Visa and MasterCard are “trading near all-time highs” and may not be ideal entry points (43:56).
7. Final Trades and Stock Recommendations
Adobe’s Struggles and Outlook
Adobe is down nearly 6% following earnings, with Baruch citing challenges in monetizing AI despite steady performance: “They continue to deliver every time they report and yet the stock does not perform well” (44:49).
Alphabet as a Top Performer
Bill Baruch endorses Alphabet, calling it the best performer in the MAG 7 over the past month and the “cheapest” among them: “They are trying to quiet the bear case around search disruption” (45:45).
Air Products and Other Industrial Stocks
Air Products is highlighted for its turnaround and premium valuation, supported by long-term contracts and inflation hedges: “We're seeing some good pop in the stock and you get paid 2.5% dividend yield while holding” (30:39).
8. Conclusion
Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by summarizing the key takeaways: the resilience of high-quality stocks amidst geopolitical turmoil, the potential opportunities in commodities, the cautious optimism surrounding AI investments, and the mixed signals from consumer sentiment. The panel underscores the importance of strategic diversification and monitoring evolving market dynamics to navigate the current edge-of-market conditions.
Notable Quotes:
- Steve Weissen (02:32): “Every single one of [the past Middle East flare-ups] has been a buying opportunity.”
- Shannon Saccocia (06:12): “If there was an escalation where additional combatants get pulled into this conflict... it could make this a longer tail than what we've seen historically.”
- Mike Santoli (09:13): “If you're a trader right now and you've been long crude oil or you've been long energy... it's important to capitalize on it and look to move on.”
- Brad Gerstner (12:00): “We have the AI super cycle... rate cuts coming in the back half of the year.”
- Steve Weissen (14:08): “There's nothing that has happened. It's only gotten worse in terms of keeping CEOs from deploying meaningful capital in Capex.”
- Bill Baruch (21:11): “What causes assets to go higher is fund flows.”
- Rob Seachin (42:54): “This is an opportunity for Visa and MasterCard.”
This comprehensive overview captures the critical discussions, insights, and strategic viewpoints presented in the episode, providing valuable context for investors navigating the current market landscape.