Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – Mega Cap Earnings In Focus (October 22, 2025)

Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Surat Sethi
Special Correspondents: Christina Parzone, Contessa Brewer, Seema Modi, Mike Santoli

Overview

This episode zeroes in on a pivotal day for global markets, with earnings and developments in mega-cap tech stocks (especially Netflix, Alphabet, Tesla), AI power names, and private equity all in focus. The panel unpacks the market’s moves, weighs on breakout headlines (including meme and sports betting stocks), and gives tactical positioning advice for investors staring down an increasingly volatile and defensive market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Netflix: Post-Earnings Debate

• Stock Sell-Off After Brazilian Tax Dispute
  • Netflix beat margin and engagement expectations, but a tax dispute in Brazil derailed the bullish narrative.
  • Joe Terranova sees the stock stuck in a consolidation:
    “You needed a catalyst to get you out of the consolidation phase. You don't get that after yesterday’s report. So now you ask the question, what do you do with the stock?” [03:43]
  • He’ll reduce holdings if Netflix can't quickly rebound above $1,150; otherwise, feels overexposed given positions in both personal and ETF accounts. [04:17]
  • Steve Weiss is staying put, stressing Netflix's unique position and historical resilience:
    “Every quarter is a roller coaster. Even when they report good numbers, you could see a 10% collapse in the stock and bad numbers, 10% collapse. Good numbers, better, better, 10% upside.” [06:05]

Analyst Price Targets Reviewed

• JPM: Neutral, cuts target to $1,275
• Wells: Overweight, trims target to $1,520
• UBS: Buy, raises to $1,495

2. Alphabet/Google: AI, Search Risk, and Cloud Bets

• Pressure on Search; Diversification into AI and Cloud
  • Surat Sethi is unfazed by search’s slow erosion, believing diversification into cloud and YouTube offsets risk:
    “Stock has huge cash flow, huge growth … and I think it’s going to be dominant for a while.” [09:15]
  • Steve Weiss trimmed and may exit his Alphabet position:
    “What I’m hearing is search could be down ... over about 20, 25%. That’s meaningful.” [09:39]
  • Both agree the CapEx arms race (AI, cloud) may limit future share buybacks.
  • Joe Terranova: Momentum buy late in the cycle is risky; latecomers have questionable risk/reward. [12:23]

3. AI Power & Utility Stocks: Run-Up, Pullback, and Skepticism

• GE Vernova, Vertiv, AI Power Generation Stocks
  • Many have surged on AI energy narratives but sold off sharply (GE Vernova down 6% despite strong earnings). [14:36]
  • Joe Terranova:
    “Momentum for October is experiencing a correction while quality ... is now making a return.” [15:18]
  • Steve Weiss: Utility stocks are not traditional growth stocks, warns they’re trading above fundamental values. [16:41]
  • Oclo (nuclear startup) dissected: Valued at $20B+ with no revenue. Weiss is skeptical:
    “There’s no reason to own this stock now at these levels. It’s too high for a speculative bet.” [18:37]

Key Point on Risk Management

• Joe Terranova:
  “It is absolutely mandatory that you have a risk management strategy … You want to ride it up, perfect. But tell me where you’re getting out when it goes the other way, because that’s the hardest thing to determine. But it’s mandatory.” [19:41]

4. Market Froth: Meme Stocks & Implications

• Meme Stocks Resurging (Beyond Meat, Krispy Kreme, GoPro)
  • Christina Parzone:
    “Beyond Meat has exploded nearly 750% since last Friday. This rally … has nothing to do with fundamentals, it really looks like a classic short squeeze.” [21:07]
  • Warning: Historic meme rallies have signaled market excesses and often precede sharp market pullbacks. [22:46]

5. Tesla: The Cult Stock Heading Into Earnings

• Momentum Dominates Over Fundamentals
  • Joe Terranova (Momentum ETF owner):
    “We own the stock based on momentum. Full hard stop … I have no idea why the stock is up.” [24:20]
    • Acknowledges earnings forecasts fall and fundamental case is unclear; robotaxis & robotics narrative is the bull’s hope.
  • Steve Weiss:
    “Discipline prevents me from ever owning the stock. It’s got no governance. The earnings have been declining, the tax credits are hitting them, they have massive recalls … I’m unwilling to value his [Musk’s] brain at 1.3 trillion.” [24:47]
  • Scott Wapner:
    “You’re buying it for the genius and what you think that brain is going to produce in the years ahead. That’s why it gets the multiple it has. The fact that it has cult status is why it gets the multiple that it has.” [25:09]

6. Private Equity: Oversold and Shifting Players

• Evercore Cuts Targets on Blackstone, Apollo; Long-Term Theses Remain
  • Surat Sethi:
    “I like these companies for the long term … alternatives [are] getting more and more shelf space as more advisors put their investors into products.” [28:22]
  • Joe Terranova:
    “I think they’re getting oversold. Clearly the mood has soured for the financial sector.” [29:09]
    • Private infrastructure is becoming the new “alt” focus.
  • Steve Weiss: Warns of crowded trades and tough exit environment for traditional PE plays; tech IPO market open but not for old-economy firms. [30:17]

7. Market Tone and Defensive Rotation

• Tech, Banks, Chips Down; Health Care, Staples Up
  • Joe Terranova:
    “The market is clearly clenching up, getting more defensive. We’re in an environment where you’ve got a blackout window on buybacks. … I still think we reset into the end of the year, but this is messaging you 2026 might look a lot different.” [33:32]
• Reuters Headline Moves Market: US may retaliate against China’s export restrictions by curbing software/tech exports. [37:13]
  • Mike Santoli:
    “It tries the easy way first which is everything rebalances and it’s out of the momentum stocks … and then usually something gets dropped, the baton gets dropped in the handoff and I think that’s what’s going on right now.” [35:52]

8. Sports Betting, Prediction Markets, and Regulation

• NHL signs first-of-its-kind licensing deal with prediction markets Kalshi & Polymarket
  • Contessa Brewer:
    “The league sees this as a massive opportunity to reach an untapped market of fans … The NFL said ... the potential is here for price distortion or manipulation.” [38:56]
    • Analysts frame these as complementary, not outright competitors to giants like DraftKings, depending on how they are regulated.
    • Robinhood’s role supplying volume to Kalshi mentioned. [42:01]

9. Winning Stocks & Earnings Preview

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

• Joe Terranova:
  “Rebuilds confidence in this company … da Vinci procedures up 20% for the quarter.” [43:02]

Thermo Fisher/Danaher/Boston Scientific

• Health tech showing signs of rebounding; Thermo Fisher sees growth from pharma/biotech, devices like Boston Scientific remain strong. [43:34]

Market Set-Up for Next 24 Hours

• United Rentals, Honeywell, Freeport, Valero: All facing key earnings with focus on guidance and macro sensitivity. [44:04]

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Joe Terranova on risk management:
  “It is absolutely mandatory that you have a risk management strategy … tell me where you’re getting out when it goes the other way, because that’s the hardest thing to determine. But it’s mandatory.” [19:41]

• Scott Wapner on Tesla’s valuation:
  “You’re buying it for the genius and what you think that brain is going to produce in the years ahead. That's why it gets the multiple it has.” [25:09]

• Steve Weiss on Alphabet’s core risk:
  “That is the engine that drives it all. That’s what supports Waymo, that’s what supports more cloud spending.” [10:15]

• Christina Parzone on meme stocks:
  “This rally … has nothing to do with fundamentals, it really looks like a classic short squeeze.” [21:07]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 02:10 – Netflix breakdown begins
• 06:05 – Price target discussion; Steve Weiss’ view on Netflix
• 08:15 – Alphabet/Google post-OpenAI & Anthropic news
• 14:36 – AI power stocks & utilities sell-off
• 18:04 – Oclo nuclear stock discussion
• 21:07 – Meme stocks comeback
• 23:11 – Tesla earnings preview and philosophy
• 28:22 – Blackstone, Apollo, and private equity debate
• 33:32 – Market recap: tech falls, defensives rise
• 35:52 – Mike Santoli market read
• 38:56 – NHL & prediction markets; DraftKings/Kalshi
• 43:02 – Intuitive Surgical & medical device winners

Summary Table: Panelist Moves & Leanings

| Stock/Sector | Joe Terranova | Steve Weiss | Surat Sethi | |-----------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | Netflix | Hold/reduce if weak | Hold long-term | N/A | | Alphabet/Google | Cautious momentum | Trimming/exiting | Hold, likes diversification| | Tesla | Hold for momentum | Will not own/disciplined| N/A | | Vertiv (AI/Power) | Owns, watching momentum| Owns, sees oversold | N/A | | Private Equity | Owns Apollo, likes Carlyle/infrastructure| Skeptical about crowded trades| Likes Blackstone, sector long-term| | Intuitive Surgical | Confident | N/A | N/A | | Honeywell | N/A | N/A | Owns, positive on breakup| | Merck | Small entry | N/A | N/A |

Tone & Takeaway

The conversation is rapid-fire, honest, and sometimes skeptical. The panelists are realistic about crowding, speculative froth, and the need for constant risk management—especially as the market shifts from favoring momentum and tech to more defensive, quality names.

Scott Wapner: “You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.” [46:12]

Useful for anyone seeking real-time insight into how top market practitioners are navigating the crosswinds of mega-cap earnings, market overextension, and defensive pivots.

Note: Timestamps provided in [MM:SS] format correspond to the episode audio.