Halftime Report – Episode: Navigating a Week of Volatility (04/11/25)
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Brenda Vingelo, Kevin Simpson, Mark Fisher
Release Date: April 11, 2025

Introduction: Setting the Stage for Volatile Markets

Scott Wapner opens the episode by highlighting the intense volatility in the stock markets for the week, following a historically significant move on Wednesday. He emphasizes the unpredictability of the current trading environment, where market sentiments can shift dramatically within minutes. Scott introduces the panel of experts—Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Brenda Vingelo, and Kevin Simpson—to dissect the tumultuous market movements and provide actionable insights for investors navigating these choppy waters.

Active vs. Index Management: Navigating Through Volatility

Kevin Simpson discusses the advantages of active management over passive index investing, particularly in volatile times.

Kevin Simpson [03:05]: “The difference between active management and being in an index is that active managers can be more nimble... We're able to provide less downside and help investors navigate the volatility.”

He explains how his firm actively adjusts their cash positions and invests in blue-chip stocks during market pullbacks, maintaining a balance to manage risks while positioning for long-term gains.

Steve Weiss raises concerns about holding significant cash reserves within an equity-focused portfolio:

Steve Weiss [04:08]: “Being cash for an active manager sounds high.”
Kevin Simpson [04:46]: “In a perfect world, I'd like to have 5% cash... we have about 12%.”

Kevin acknowledges the high cash position but justifies it as a strategic move to capitalize on market downturns without compromising the portfolio’s overall growth potential.

Strategic Stock Picks Amidst Market Chaos

Scott shifts the discussion to specific stock selections, with a particular focus on Apple due to its significant decline and ongoing trade tensions.

Scott Wapner [05:25]: “Apple is down 26% off its 52-week high... Should your thinking move like Jim's?”

Kevin Simpson [07:08]:

“I trade Apple like crazy. We sold it at $247 and bought back at $177. We're just recognizing that it could go lower and being cautious.”

Jim Leventhal offers a contrasting perspective, advocating for continued investment in strong companies despite market uncertainties:

Jim Leventhal [07:08]: “Apple is still great at very good prices... I am absolutely buying. It's a mid-25 multiple.”

Brenda Vingelo concurs, recommending incremental buying strategies:

Brenda Vingelo [10:23]: “Add selectively and incrementally during environments like this... now is a moment where.”

Debate on U.S. Global Leadership and Trade Wars

A heated debate ensues between Steve Weiss and Jim Leventhal regarding the United States’ position in the global economy amidst trade tensions.

Steve Weiss [18:10]:

“China has been very patient... they are in a better position to...”

Jim Leventhal [19:11]:

“I disagree with that assessment... The U.S. has seated its leadership.”

Scott moderates the discussion, referencing Larry Fink’s assertion about the U.S. being a global destabilizer and the potential long-term impacts on the economy and global standing.

Retail Investor Behavior: Confidence Amidst Uncertainty

Kate Rooney presents data on retail investors' activities, noting a robust trend of buying dips despite heightened volatility.

Kate Rooney [28:29]: “Retail investors have been leaning into the volatility... the average retail portfolio was up 17%.”

She observes a shift from single-stock investments to broader ETFs, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment among individual investors.

Brenda Vingelo advises:

“Selling right now is a bad idea... it's time to buy selectively and incrementally.”

Commodities Markets: Opportunities in Hidden Corners

Mark Fisher, CEO of MBF Trading, provides insights into the commodities market, highlighting opportunities in grains over oil.

Crude Oil:

Mark Fisher [34:48]: “Everyone’s short... sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish... price likely to remain around $70 per barrel.”

Grains:

Mark Fisher [36:33]: “Grains are undervalued... tariffs and global demand make this a more attractive investment... risk-reward ratio of 3:1 or 4:1.”

Gold:

Mark Fisher [40:24]: “Gold is experiencing a buy-at-home mentality... no shorting pressure means potential for continued rise.”

Earnings Season: Navigating Upcoming Reports

The panel anticipates the impact of upcoming earnings, particularly from Johnson & Johnson (J&J) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH).

Brenda Vingelo notes:

“J&J’s earnings will be muddied by tariff comments... underlying trends remain strong with expected growth.”

Kevin Simpson adds:

“UNH is going to have great numbers... it's a cornerstone in healthcare.”

Final Trades and Market Reflections

As the episode nears its conclusion, panelists share their final trades and reflections on the week’s market movements.

Kevin Simpson [49:24]:

“T.J. Maxx is a standout in a tough retail environment... strong earnings and free cash flow.”

Brenda Vingelo [49:32]:

“Meta will be a winner in the advertising space.”

Steve Weiss [49:38]:

“ABBV is semi-exempted from China chips... favorable outlook despite global tensions.”

Conclusion: Preparing for Continued Volatility

Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by acknowledging the emotional toll of the volatile markets on investors and the importance of staying informed and strategic. He hints at upcoming segments with market commentators Mike Santoli and energy trader Mark Fisher to provide further insights into navigating the evolving economic landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Kevin Simpson [03:05]: “Active managers can be more nimble... able to provide less downside.”
• Jim Leventhal [07:08]: “Apple is still great at very good prices... absolutely buying.”
• Steve Weiss [18:10]: “China has been very patient... they are in a better position to...”
• Mark Fisher [36:33]: “Grains are undervalued... risk-reward ratio of 3:1 or 4:1.”

Key Takeaways:

1. Active Management Advantage: Active managers like Kevin Simpson can swiftly adjust portfolios to mitigate risks and seize opportunities during volatile markets, unlike passive index funds.

2. Strategic Stock Investments: Despite significant declines, investing in robust companies like Apple and other blue-chip stocks remains a viable strategy for long-term growth.

3. Global Economic Leadership: The U.S.'s role in the global economy is under scrutiny amid trade tensions, with differing opinions on whether it remains a leading force or is being overshadowed by China.

4. Retail Investors' Confidence: Individual investors are actively buying dips and shifting towards broader ETFs, indicating sustained confidence despite economic uncertainties.

5. Commodities Opportunities: While crude oil remains bearish, grains and gold present promising risk-reward opportunities for investors looking to diversify.

6. Earnings Season Insight: Upcoming earnings reports from major companies will provide further clarity on the economic impact of tariffs and broader market trends.

7. Emotional Resilience: The episode underscores the importance of maintaining a strategic, long-term outlook amidst market volatility and emotional trading behaviors.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this summary are based on the transcript provided and do not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.