CNBC Halftime Report: Navigating the Volatile Market (2/2/26)

Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Anastasia Amoroso, Brian Belsky
Main Theme:
This episode dives into the outlook for the stock market as February kicks off amidst ongoing volatility, record highs, and notable sector moves. The panel analyzes recent swings in commodities, crypto, and megacap tech, discusses the transition from momentum to earnings-driven markets, and breaks down investor strategies amid macro uncertainty—including the latest on the Nvidia-OpenAI megadeal and new moves in healthcare and software stocks.

1. Market Outlook: February and Volatility

• Scott Wapner opens with optimism as major indices start February in the green, but notes historical tendencies for volatility.
• Joe Terranova warns, “Volatility is going to remain elevated through the remainder of the year, which makes the decisions much more difficult. But… are we that far away from the all-time high? No, we’re not.” (01:52)
• Panel notes that Oppenheimer and JP Morgan forecasts are bullish, yet recent wild moves in gold and silver are causing unease.
• Brian Belsky argues, “We’re transitioning from a momentum, multiple expansion market to more of an earnings driven market” (03:41), projecting more muted but still positive returns in 2026.

2. Commodities, Crypto, and Market Speculation

Dramatic Moves in Metals & Retail Engagement

• Discussion on extreme swings in gold and silver—“Some of the moves we saw there looked a little ridiculous, like crazy stuff you don’t normally see... last time you saw these kind of moves in silver was 40 years ago.” (02:49)
• Stephanie Link: “Let the speculators leave… silver up 250% in the past year, not on fundamentals… The moves are outrageous and is absolutely speculation.” (11:51)
• Joe Terranova suggests the volatility “is more about engagement and traditionalizing an asset class that previously was not traded by the retail community.” (09:00)

Crypto Parallels and Risk Appetite

• Discussion of the crypto market’s turbulence: “Anything too close to the sun in crypto is getting hit pretty well… I don’t like to see Coinbase down a million months in a row, but I do want to have a very small participation in cryptocurrencies.” – Stephanie Link (05:09)
• Anastasia Amoroso emphasizes that many segments—precious metals, DRAM, crypto—trade similarly due to “risk on” sentiment and speculator froth.
• There is consensus that volatility in these segments will persist, but the VIX remains relatively low.

3. Macro Environment: Earnings, the Economy, and the Fed

• Stephanie Link celebrates robust earnings: “Earnings are running up 15%… revenues up 7 point… Chicago PMI at 54, expectations were 43” (05:09)—indicating an economy humming above trend.
• Worries linger about the sustainability of this growth given Fed leadership shifts and the unpredictable context of an election year.
• Anastasia Amoroso: “Maybe people make the case for this being a more volatile year because it’s the midterm elections… But if you had a midterm elections year in which the Fed was either staying pat or easing policy, you actually did have an average of 5 or 6% performance.” (07:35)
• Labor market, productivity, and AI’s impact on margins are highlighted as key positive fundamentals: “Productivity… has picked up a lot. 2.3% average since the launch of ChatGPT, which is 2x.” (08:50)

4. Mega Cap and Tech Dynamics: Nvidia, OpenAI, Amazon, Meta, Apple

Nvidia and OpenAI “Megadeal”

• Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia’s $100B investment in OpenAI is “on ice”.
• CEO Jensen Huang clarifies: “the $100 billion figure… was never a commitment” (15:12), but Nvidia remains set to invest in OpenAI in phases.
• Kate Rooney notes Silicon Valley’s concern about “lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business approach and… competition from Google and Anthropic.” (17:33)
• Brian Belsky: “The market is transitioning from a talk-the-talk, walk-the-walk type situation… It’s not going to be as clear cut and concise in terms of the money generated by OpenAI as everybody thought.” (22:12)

Investment Philosophy: Show Me the Money

• Panel agrees that investors are now demanding evidence—not just projections—particularly in data centers and AI deals. (23:49)
• Stephanie Link: “Relying on projections… is really flawed thinking.” (23:49)
• Monetization and contract revenue are stressed (“The only way I can [get my head around big capex numbers] is if I start to see pieces, that it’s starting to work.” – Link, 25:36)

Portfolio Moves: Rotating Out/In on Momentum

• Joe Terranova discusses his ETF’s momentum rebalance: “Unfortunately, in the case of Amazon, it falls at 254 [out of top 250]… Meta was difficult to lose… Apple actually qualifies from a momentum perspective, but a three-year sales growth rate at 1.8% just does not get it done.” (26:23)
• Natural churn: “On a quarterly basis we rebalance and reconstitute… we could go right back in.” (27:36)
• Selling Netflix and Disney: Netflix as a momentum break, Disney for lacking sales growth despite recent upside. (33:08–34:12)
• Brian Belsky maintains core positions in Netflix (“a core name… for large cap money in the US”), and Disney as a value play. (34:20)

5. Notable Stock Picks and Sector Moves

Stephanie Link Buys Synopsys

• “Mission critical software company for semis… 41% market share… positioning for growth… Stock’s down 27%, trades at 23x EBITDA vs historical 27x.” – Stephanie Link (30:54)

Amphenol: The “Steady Performer”

• Only original holding still in Terranova’s ETF since inception in 2020: “Steady company that delivers on all the important metrics… strong sales growth, solid debt profile.” (32:13)

Healthcare: Tilt Toward Pharma and Biotech

• Rebalancing increases healthcare allocation: “Added Gilead, Abbott, Eli Lilly, Regeneron, Vertex.” (43:51)
• Merck and Pfizer: “More acquisitions and more investment into the biotech space [coming].” – Brian Belsky (44:03)

Doordash Highlighted

• Added to Goldman’s conviction list for blending advertising and e-commerce. Joe Terranova sees “fundamental story… still very much in place.” (45:18)

Target: Low Expectations

• “Down 27% over the past year… $9 billion buyback = 19% of float. Low expectations, but interesting down here.” – Stephanie Link (45:42)

6. Macro Risks and Policy Headlines

• Major news: President Trump announces India will stop buying Russian oil, and a new trade deal is cut—awaiting Indian confirmation. (19:53–20:40)
• January jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown. Mike Santoli (41:27) shrugs off big impact: “The numbers have been coming in better than anticipated… that’s a buffer to other excuses for a market pullback.”

7. Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Joe Terranova: “Volatility is going to remain elevated through the remainder of the year, which makes the decisions much more difficult.” (01:52)
• Brian Belsky: “Transitioning from a momentum multiple expansion market to more of an earnings driven market.” (03:41)
• Stephanie Link: “I do want to have participation, a very small participation in cryptocurrencies, because I do think a whole new generation is buying crypto a lot younger than me.” (05:09)
• Anastasia Amoroso: “Productivity has picked up a lot… 2.3% average since the launch of ChatGPT, which is 2x.” (08:50)
• Jensen Huang (via Christina Partsinevelos): “The $100 billion figure… was never a commitment.” (15:12)
• Kate Rooney on Huang: “He’s also privately criticized… lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business approach and expressed concern about the competition…” (17:33)
• Stephanie Link: “Let the speculators leave… silver up 250% in the past year, not on fundamentals.” (11:51)
• Brian Belsky: “I think the majority of the gold trade’s over.” (14:17)
• Stephanie Link (on Synopsys): “Mission critical is different than just other software companies in my mind.” (31:42)
• Joe Terranova: “On a quarterly basis we rebalance and reconstitute. If [names] have a huge move in the interim, okay, so be it. But I’m not that upset by the moves in Megacap.” (27:36)

8. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:46] – Opening Market Commentary: February’s volatility outlook
• [03:41] – Market shifting from momentum to earnings-driven
• [09:00] – Retail traders & volatility in commodities
• [11:51] – Silver/gold speculation
• [15:12] – Nvidia/OpenAI deal explained
• [17:33] – Concerns about OpenAI’s discipline & competition
• [22:12] – The “show me the money” investment era
• [26:23] – ETF strategy and major rebalancing moves
• [30:54] – Why Synopsys was bought on the pullback
• [32:13] – Amphenol’s long-term performance story
• [34:20] – Taking stock of Netflix and Disney
• [41:27] – Jobs report delayed due to shutdown: macro implications

9. Tone and Takeaways

• Conversational, occasionally candid, the panel balances cautious optimism with realism about market froth and speculation.
• Broad consensus: expect ongoing volatility, rotating leadership among sectors, and a “prove it” environment for high-spending tech giants.
• Actionable insight: Focus on earnings and contract revenues, not just projections; don’t chase speculative runs; rebalance regularly as market dynamics shift.

This summary distills the key debates, investment philosophies, and actionable insights from this episode—providing a comprehensive overview for anyone needing to catch up on the most current Wall Street thinking.