CNBC Halftime Report: "New Month, New Strategy"

Date: November 3, 2025
Guest Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Kate Moore, Carrie Firestone, Steve Weiss
Main Theme:
How should investors position themselves for the final months of 2025 amid renewed tech concentration, continued AI-driven momentum, shifting fundamentals, and a changing Fed outlook? The panel debates portfolio strategy as market breadth narrows, big tech powers higher, and macro risk factors swirl.

1. Market Setup: November's Challenge for Investors

Key Takeaway:
The S&P and Nasdaq are near all-time highs, but market gains are once again increasingly concentrated in a handful of mega-cap tech stocks. The "broadening out" theme of recent months is sputtering. Investors must decide whether to double-down on the winners, diversify, or pivot to lagging sectors.

• Frank Holland: “The November setup for stocks—how should you position your portfolio as we head into the final stretch of the year?” (01:16)

2. Concentration vs. Diversification — A Divided Panel

Market Breadth Is Shrinking Again

• Joe Terranova:

  • Points out S&P equal-weight is again underperforming, down 50 basis points that day; only seven “mega-cap” stocks now drive returns.
  • “It is now a much more difficult environment than it was 30 days ago... It appears as though in the last week, whatever reason you want to cite … it is very clear that we are back to that concentrated market once again today.” (02:00)

• Kate Moore:

  • Accepts the concentrated trend, but notes megacap outperformance is fundamentally justified:
  • “These large mega cap companies... are putting up great fundamentals. They're producing free cash and continuing to manage through a challenging investment environment.” (03:35)
  • Points to only two months since 2023 when equal-weight S&P outperformed: "We have a three standard deviation outperformance of market cap weighted stocks relative to equal weighted.” (03:35)

• Carrie Firestone:

  • Voices concern over mega-cap reliance and debt-driven AI buildouts:
  • “The concern is that the free cash flow of these mega caps is not as great as it was. They're all issuing debt... using hundreds of billions to pay for AI build out... we’re relying on these companies to push the market higher.” (04:44)
  • Warns the lack of breadth could trigger a correction.

• Steve Weiss:

  • Defends concentration, invoking Warren Buffett:
  • “Diversification is the enemy of performance. We've seen that time and time again. That's why 75% of portfolio managers underperform the S&P every year.” (07:19)
  • Not concerned about debt for companies with strong balance sheets: “Putting debt on a balance sheet when it’s not an issue... is a good thing because it’s leveraging your returns.” (07:19)

3. The Fed, Inflation & Macro Risks

• Shifting Expectations:

  • Kate Moore: The path ahead is not a foregone conclusion; Fed cuts are no sure thing. October data signaled sticky inflation, arguing against imminent easing.
    • “I think a more consistent debate... is going to be more of the rule for the end of the year.” (09:47)

• Steve Weiss: Points to labor shortages (via immigration policy), government shutdown risks, stickier inflation; automation will balance labor tightening, but inflation remains a threat.

  • “What hits you generally is what you don’t foresee. That’s the real black swan.” (12:23)

• Joe Terranova: Homebuilders aren't responding to rate cut hopes—signals market skepticism toward a monetary-driven resurgence.

  • “In the last month... rate cuts are coming, you want to buy homebuilders... but they’re not responding.” (12:55)

4. AI Deals & Big Tech Earnings — Amazon & OpenAI Lead Headlines

• Amazon’s $38B Cloud Partnership with OpenAI (16:07–16:55)

  • Amazon gains immediate access to Nvidia GPUs for OpenAI; shift away from Microsoft as exclusive provider.
  • McKenzie Sigalos: “Amazon will also build out new data centers specifically for OpenAI... part of why they're pacing toward a $200 billion plus Q4, the first company to hit that landmark.” (16:07)

• Kate Moore: Sees AI demand as valid justification for capex, echoes excitement about commercial demand for cloud and AI services.

  • “It was the demand for their services that got me excited. And again, I know it's uncomfortable to have a concentrated market, but these fundamentals are still strong.” (17:31)

• Steve Weiss: On the wave of AI/cloud deals:

  • “If you're in cloud and you've got three major cloud players, you've got to be involved with OpenAI, period, end of story.” (20:52)

• Joe Terranova: Notes a tech tilt in his ETF rebalancing; financials cut, technology exposure raised:

  • “It was going to be the momentum driven names like Apple, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, like AMD. All of these technology names have remarkably strong momentum.” (14:13)

5. China, Semiconductors & the Global Tech Stack

• Kate Moore:

  • On US-China tech rivalry:
    • “We need to separate out our investments in the US technology stack and the Chinese technology stack. I prefer this kind of parallel... we added to Chinese equities... constructive view on government support for their semis business.” (22:24)
  • On China chip access: “It’s great if they can get some chips. But the bigger story… is the strategic competition still very, very much in play.” (22:24)

• Bullish on Semiconductor Equipment:

  • Joe Terranova: “As long as we keep hearing about these (AI/cloud) deals, the semi equipment names will work—all three of them. The major ones will benefit: KLA Corp, Lam Research, Applied Materials, Teradyne.” (21:22)

6. Cybersecurity & Software — Winners and Losers

• Sector is bifurcating:

  • Joe Terranova: “Palo Alto and CrowdStrike have worked remarkably well... I think you're still getting rewarded for being in cybersecurity.” (23:27)
  • Carrie Firestone: “It’s software such as Adobe and Autodesk that's really getting hurt... being brushed with the ‘AI is going to kill your business’ stroke.” (24:01)
  • Kate Moore: Software companies tied to headcount (seat-license model) face risk from layoffs and AI adoption, leading to uncertain revenue outlooks. (24:24)

• Layoffs As a Risk:

  • Steve Weiss: “You're cutting 14,000 white collar jobs at Amazon. How many of those had a license to Salesforce, had a license to pick the software company.” (24:54)

7. Sector Rotation: Staples, Biotech & Financials

• Kimberly Clark’s $48.7B deal for Can You: Viewed as laggard-sector consolidation, not a broad bullish signal for defensives or M&A, per Kate Moore and Steve Weiss.

  • Kate Moore: “I really prefer the more secular growers at this stage of the cycle... we are not in the early part of the market cycle. And fundamentals really matter. I don't think Staples have pricing power and I'm more worried about their margins.” (28:06)

• Biotech/Pharmaceuticals:

  • Carrie Firestone: Despite recent life in biotechs, Novo and Amgen still out of favor but positioned for recovery. “We still like the stock. But yes, it’s been tough. And right now it's going to have to be proven.” (29:50)

• Financials:

  • Carrie Firestone: Bullish on Charles Schwab after full TD integration: “We think Charles Schwab just offers everything that the consumers need.” (31:50)

8. ETF Flows — Where Is the Money Going? (ETF Edge, 35:13–38:02)

• Anna Poliak, State Street:
  • Record $1 trillion new ETF inflows YTD; “Low cost continues to dominate.”
  • Sector winners: “Financials and industrials... have seen a lot of new assets coming into the market in October.” (36:43)
  • Shift to bringing exposure ‘under one umbrella’ (from fragmented mutual funds, CITs, SMAs) for major index allocations. (37:16)

9. Earnings Preview: Palantir, Uber, Spotify (38:02–42:55)

• Palantir:

  • Joe Terranova: Held since Jan ‘24, up over 150% YTD, “I think it's going to deliver again... If I had discretion, I probably would have sold it five times. Thankfully it’s rules based and it stayed anchored.” (38:42)
  • Steve Weiss: Impressed with fundamentals, but refuses to buy at 85x forward earnings: “My own decision is do I want to participate or not. And I choose not to at that valuation level.” (39:25)

• Uber:

  • Weiss owns, expects decent quarter but wants stronger technical support: “It’s not a very large position for me but I’m willing to see what happens in the quarter.” (41:00)
  • Joe Terranova: Disagrees with Weiss’s pessimism—“They’re going to report ... EBITDA margins at 30%, monthly active users, double digit growth. I think you should be pleased.” (41:27)

• Spotify:

  • Joe Terranova: Very cautious—company must show margin growth after recent struggles:
    • “It can’t be flat margins... This is a seminal moment in terms of the earnings report.” (42:21)

10. Market Technicals & Sentiment — Mike Santoli's "Midday Word" (43:50)

• Santoli:
  • Stat: Market is typically up 5% more in Nov-Dec if it starts Nov +15% YTD, but “no guarantees.”
  • “A few mega caps kind of holding the S&P above the flat line... restaurants have been straight down... It’s the combination of government shutdown, soft labor market and all the other issues... not fatal to the rally. ... You probably need a genuine growth scare, though, or even expectations of a recession for staples to outperform sustainably.” (43:50–45:43)

11. Final Trades (45:57)

• Kate Moore: “K-shaped recovery—large caps over small, less rate sensitive over more rate sensitive.”

• Steve Weiss: “Meta—stands almost in bear market territory, 20% off highs. I think it's a buy right here.”

• Carrie Firestone: “S&P Global—had a good quarter, more issuance, does well in this environment.”

• Joe Terranova: “IDEXX Labs (Pet health)—in the Jyoti ETF, broke out above 2021 high, double-digit revenue growth.”

Notable Quotes

• Joe Terranova (02:00):

  “It is now a much more difficult environment than it was 30 days ago... It is very clear that we are back to that concentrated market once again today.”

• Kate Moore (03:35):

  “We have a three standard deviation outperformance of market cap weighted stocks relative to equal weighted. As uncomfortable as that is for portfolio managers... we have to stay really focused on the large cap free cash generators.”

• Carrie Firestone (04:44):

  “They're all issuing debt, they're using hundreds of billions of dollars… in order to pay for their AI build out… We're relying on these companies to push the market higher… there's more pressure on them, and it would be better if we saw a little more spread.”

• Steve Weiss (07:19):

  “Diversification is the enemy of performance. We've seen that time and time again. And perhaps that's why 75% of portfolio managers underperform the S&P every year.”

• Mike Santoli (43:50):

  “The path of least resistance, all else being equal, is probably higher between now and year end… But it’s a very familiar character of this market—uneven. You have a few mega caps holding the S&P above the flat line and then negative breadth, definite concern for deceleration in the consumer economy.”

Timestamps For Key Segments

• [01:16] Show Theme & Opening Market Setup
• [02:00–07:00] Debate: Market Concentration vs. Diversification
• [09:47–12:55] Fed/Inflation/Macro Outlook
• [14:13–16:08] AI, Tech Rebalancing, Amazon/OpenAI Deal
• [16:55–20:52] AI Cloud Deals, Chip Winners, Tech Fundamentals
• [22:24–24:54] Semis, China, Software/Cybersecurity Divergence
• [27:45–28:50] Kimberly Clark/Staples M&A
• [29:50–31:26] Health Care & Biotech
• [31:50–32:23] Charles Schwab/Fundamentals
• [35:13–38:02] ETF Flows/Sector Rotation (ETF Edge)
• [38:42–42:55] Earnings Previews: Palantir, Uber, Spotify
• [43:50–45:43] Technicals, Sentiment, Sectors With Mike Santoli
• [45:57–46:38] Final Trades

Tone & Takeaways

• Tonally:
  Spirited, sometimes skeptical, occasionally playful, but deeply analytical. The discussion is practical—anchored by recent data and fundamental trends—while grappling with persistent worries around market breadth, overreliance on big tech, and macro headwinds.
• Theme:
  With the market up big but narrow, the central question is whether to ride the tech momentum or prepare for a rotation—or even a stumble—if the mega-cap foundation weakens. The panel is divided, but all agree caution and strategy matter as 2025 winds down.

For listeners seeking actionable insight:

• Recognize and accept the current mega-cap/AI-led rally, but understand its fundamental justifications and limits.
• Diversification has lagged, but the panel warns against “all in” bets.
• Monitor macro risks—especially labor, inflation, potential government shutdowns, and Fed indecision.
• Critical to watch upcoming earnings in both the stalwarts (tech, healthcare) and possible turnaround sectors (defensives, financials, biotech).
• ETF flows show investors still favoring low-cost, broad-market exposure, but selectively adding to financials/industrials.
• Remain agile: rotation could come fast if sentiment or fundamentals shift, while momentum in winning names (AI, big tech) remains powerful.