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Halftime Report
Nvidia Turns Negative: What it Means for the Market 11/20/25
00:44:22
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate what to do now that Nvidia has turned negative, Bitcoin breaks below $90k, and the rest of the market continues to fall. Plus, Walmart leads the Dow today, the Committee discuss their retail strategy. And later, the desk shares their strategy about some of their stocks on the move today. Investment Committee Disclosures
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For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org I'm Scott Wapner and you're.
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Listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast.
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The most profitable hour of the trading day.
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Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for Scott Wapner. Front and center at this hour, the big reversal. Stocks at session lows as Nvidia gives up its post. Earnings pop. So what's driving this rollover? Our investment committee standing by to debate that and much, much more generally. For the hour, we have Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link and Brent talking to get this conversation started. Quick check on the market. As Carl just noted, we're in the red across the board right now again at session lows. The S and pulling back is about a quarter of 1%. The Nasdaq pulling back about a third. Even the Russell's in the red right now, the Dow pulling back just about 45 points. But remember, we were in rally mode earlier today and that's where I come to you, Joe. What's going on? I think everybody's trying to figure out what's going on after that great Nvidia report that made every index pop and now we're giving up all those gains.
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C
Look, it's frustrating to have to come on air and share with the viewers what is actually right now unfolding. And it really relates to cryptocurrencies and the, the continued decline that we're seeing there. Etherium, Bitcoin, they both rolled over in the middle of the day, took the market down, the equities market down with the crypto market. You're now staring at greater than 20% losses on the quarter for each of these. Why is this happening? Because this is an example of where we have been in the last several days where investors and speculators want to take risk off the table. And that's the environment. That's the sentiment, that's the tone. And to see the reversal that we're seeing in equities within video, I don't think it's endemic of there's something wrong with equities. Okay Extreme valuation, equities. We saw what the market did to Palantir. Post earnings, good earnings, bad price reaction. The market right now wants to invest, wants to allocate towards the AI theme, but it wants to do it with the quality names in video is a quality name. So I don't think this is endemic of something troubling with Nvidia. I think this is more about sentiment in the market in an environment where speculators want to take the risk off. And that one area that I continue to be focused on is cryptocurrencies because that's where the leverage is. And excessive leverage, Frank, is always the troubling spot in the market.
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A
Just to illustrate your point, by the way, bitcoin back below 90,000 earlier this morning. I believe it's about 91,000, Steph. So a big decline there. I'm looking at ether in the red too. And I want to kind of jump off of Joe's point right here. He says the market likes quality even if it's high valuation. I'm looking at Palantir. I do think that's a quality name. That's down more than two and a half percent. Vertif almost down 3%. So Joe, to your point, I know you said it's a lot of margin calling and people sometimes have to sell their equities to pay off their crypto losses, but why do you think these names in particular are so hard hit? Because after that Nvidia report, it seems like their businesses are solidified and some of these fears have been eased, at least for today, where we thought they were.
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B
There's absolutely nothing wrong with Nvidia. I don't own it, but I tell you the growth is phenomenal. Total revenue growth of 63%. Data revenue growth 66%. Guidance is in the 60s as well. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Nvidia. The problem is it's 7% of the S&P 500, very, very over owned, very well liked by the sell side as well. There's like 100% of the analysts have buys on this thing. So it is very over owned. I'm actually intrigued that Broadcom has actually acted better today because I think it's a little less over owned, but it's still there, it's still very popular. But the, the issue is it's the food chain. So Nvidia obviously is the AI play, the pure play and the technology side. So is Broadcom. So a lot of technology names, but then you go and you look at data centers and the industrials that build out the data centers, they're getting hit. They reversed as well. So did the grid players, the utility players and now the power companies, independent power producers are all down. They've all reversed as well. So it's like this knock on effect and I don't think it's, I don't think it's, it's the right action to be honest with you. If it's because of bitcoin and people are taking risk down, go to these quality companies that are not reacting to where numbers are going up substantially, where there's substantial buybacks and increasing of dividends and the total addressable market is substantial as well. So I think you want to pick and choose. Do you want to do it today? I don't like the action at all, but I do think you want to pick and choose some of these companies. Every one of the names that you just mentioned, I think our buys here.
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A
We want to come over to you, we often go to you when we talk about cryptocurrency, specifically bitcoin because you've been an ibid holder. What do you make of the action going on here? And I do want to point out the, I bet the iShares Bitcoin ETF is actually trading a bit lower than the coin itself. Your view on cryptocurrency and just holding it right now, I mean so volatile right now you're seeing these big declines and it seems to hit an area of resistance right around maybe 90 to 93 and it just can't seem to break past that anymore.
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D
Yeah, well I want to go back to what, what Joe was saying, which I think is very important about the delevering in the system. So, so where do a lot of institutions and specifically hedge funds lever up? Well, number one they access the repo market which has been very wonky lately. But more important, you know, the yen long borrowing yen go and buy risky assets. I mean the 10 year JGBs have gone from 1% this year to 175. So on a percentage basis it's a massive move. And so I think you have this delevering in crypto. I think you have some hedge funds and institutions that are offside in this yen borrowing yen and so that you have this liquidity sucking out of the market. And I feel like with bitcoin as liquidity comes out, bitcoin as bitcoin gets hit with the bit or crypto in general. And so to me, until we get the stabilization and the liquidity and I think crypto will be the first sign of that. I feel that the market as a whole is saying there's something else happening. Because to Steph's point, I mean Nvidia's numbers were great. They were great, period. And stop. Why hasn't that been able to carry the market even higher? I do think there's other things at play that we as investors are hard to see. And I think this delevering in the yen and also in the still the wonkiness of the reverse repo market is adding to this negative sentiment across the market.
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A
So Joe, want to come back over to you. Right now we're looking at Nvidia trading lower and this is a question I've been asked since about 5 o' clock this morning after this great report. Do you buy more Nvidia here? And now that it's pulled back about half a percent, 2/3 of a percent based on the moves right there, is this a viable place for Nvidia after that really strong earnings report that showed at least for the near term we're not in a bubble. Can you buy here on this very slight dip for Nvidia or any of these other names on this dip?
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C
As I grow older I become more and more confident that you have to have a process and my process is becoming more and more rules based because I think market structure dictates that. And I think you need to have discipline in a certain regard. I said to Scott several weeks ago I would not if you didn't own Nvidia, I wouldn't be reaching for Nvidia when it was 195ish. If you were long, I would maintain your position. I would have rather have bought Nvidia on a breakout above that new all time high which it did not achieve after reporting earnings last night and subsequent price action this morning. So I think I want to maintain that that discipline. To answer your question succinctly, if you don't own Nvidia, no, I don't think I would be buying in video. Exactly right here. I'd rather see some strength reflected with a breakout above a new all time high. There's your confirmation. And if you don't own it, I would rather buy it there.
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Yeah. By the way, JP Morgan out with a note today saying that retail investors, they bought Nvidia every day this week going into earnings. So a lot of confidence by the retail.
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They sold it last night.
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Steph, similar question to you. Let's go beyond Nvidia some of these other second derivative plays. It sounded like you would say you buy Palantir on this, this pullback or a Vertiv or an Eaton on these pullbacks.
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B
Well, Vertiv, Eaton, Quanta Services, ge, Vernova, Rockwell Automation, all of them. I own all of them. I like all of them very much. You know Vertiv was my choice on Worldwide Exchange.
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Great show.
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B
Your awesome show. Between now and the end of the year I still think that Vertiv is going to do well between now and the end of the year. This is an Air pocket. This is an Air pocket and they're selling the entire theme at this point in time. But this is where you kind of go in and you look and you buy on the weakness especially when you have orders and backlog to the degree that you have in all of the names that I just mentioned, 40, 50, 60% in terms of growth in orders and in backlogs. These numbers I've never seen from an industrial company. But all that being said, the one that I'm buying is not on the industrial list, it's Metta because that stock is now down 25% from its highs. And I think we are seeing monetization from their AI stock spend. I know I spend is a lot. Capex is much more than we thought but they are seeing ad impression growth of 14%. They're seeing pricing up 10%. I said yesterday on the show video time spent up 30%. That is our OI by definition. And so to me now the stock is trading at 18 times forward estimates growing revenues at 26% which I think is sustainable, sustainable and I think it's overdone. So that's the one I added. And I bought Microsoft brand new when it dipped on its quarter. And I do think Amazon is absolutely a buy because on the retail side they are one of the haves versus the have nots. It's Walmart, Costco, Amazon. And I don't think Amazon gets credit for their retail business. I know we're talking about AWS for this name. People like to talk about that. They accelerated that growth as well. So that's the one that I am looking to add to. I have not bought it back.
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C
If I could let me just clarify something as it relates to Nvidia. My feeling that you don't buy Nvidia here. You wait for a breakout above a new all time high. It has nothing to do with Nvidia itself, the equity name. It's the fact that I think the animal spirits have left the market for whatever the reason is that you would like to cite. And I'D like to see those animal spirits return once again. And a breakout above a new all time high confirms that Steph is right. If you look at the MAG7, I think we basically went 7 for 7 with this earnings report. There really was no disappointment in any of these Mag 7 names. So the visibility in terms of strong earnings growth and the guidance towards continuing that into 2026, it's clear it's there. And owning these Mag 7 names to me as core holdings makes sense.
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You know, to your point, we're showing the audience right now only Tesla missed on eps. And I think a lot of investors don't see that as a story. Where you're looking at this quarter, you're looking at the outlook with the robots and the Robotaxi, but one miss there, but the rest a lot of green if you look to the right. So to your point, Brent, I want to come back over to you your view on Nvidia, the move it's making right now, the fact that it's moving lower after this Blau report. If crypto is a factor, if market sentiment is a factor, as Joe saying, animal spirits leaving the market. How do you view this company right now today?
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Yeah, I think from a stock price, we have to separate the company, which is crushing it from the stock price. What I did actually is I had, I had sold calls two months ago at 200 that expire on Friday. So I was able to close those out today with about a 60% gain. And then I sold calls again for January at 220of like so 2 1/2 months from now. I do think this $200 for Nvidia is a ceiling if it couldn't break through it. Today on these stellar numbers and you know all that Jensen talked about his view of depreciation, his view of the partnerships. If it can't be a sustainable rally today, I do think that $200 is going to be a ceiling until to Joe's points we get some more animal spirits. And even then I still think $200 is going to, is going to be a, a tougher spot for it to break through. So I will continue to sell calls and take advantage of that. While I think the stock could trade somewhat sideways, you know, I think about.
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An hour for the show. I thought we all thought we were doing a way different show. Nvidia and bullishness on the trade and the build out. Great note from Macquarie earlier today saying about 46, 40 to 60% of capex for data center. It goes into chips and still we're seeing chips trade a lot lower. In fact, Joe, one of your holdings, Micron, started the day positive. We're going to show the chart right here down more than 9%.
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C
Both Micron and AMD were kind of late to participating in the AI story that kind of sat out on the sidelines and there was this rebuilding of positions in both of those names more recent. I think Brian talked about this the other day, and I agree. I think Micron is the probably the better of all the DRAM memory plays that you can find, think about getting into. But the market right now is in the mood and in the environment of wanting to raise liquidity and remove a leverage that's in the system. And when you have names like AMD and Micron that have to a certain extent gone parabolic here of less 45 days, they are clearly going to be susceptible to more aggressive selling than maybe some of the other semiconductor names that we view as quality, like a Broadcom, like a LAM Research, like a KLA Corporate.
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A
One thing that doesn't seem to be a factor is valuation, because while you were talking, I was looking at the valuation of Micron. It's only trading at about 12 times forward earnings. So valuation doesn't seem to seem to be the story. Steph, how are people picking the stocks that are going to trade lower today? Because we mentioned, and we were talking about this all throughout the day, Walmart's up about 6 1/2% for a company that size to make a move, that's incredible. A lot of other names like Broadcom still higher. So when we're looking at these names right now, what do you think investors are looking at to decide which ones to sell, which ones to move higher?
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B
The way I've always looked at it is when a company reports earnings that are good and estimates are going higher and the stocks actually go lower, I don't like that action, Joe. Joe is the expert on that, but I don't like that action. But I think it is the opportunity over the long haul, because I do not know when this is going to end. Nobody does. I do not know the price of Bitcoin, where that's going to settle out. Nobody does. But when we do see a stabilization, and it may take a couple of days, couple of weeks, but when we do, people will go back into the companies where the earnings estimates actually went higher because that is your opportunity. Stocks follow profits over the long haul on the way up and on the way down, and the ones that are going higher. But yet the stock action isn't good. That, that doesn't scare me at all. That actually gives me the confidence to be adding to some of those numbers. That's one of the reasons, by the way, that I was adding to Meta and adding to Microsoft and I'm going to add to Teradyne because these are great, great companies that are now getting caught up in all of this noise and I think that that's the long term opportunity.
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A
So would you count Palo Alto Networks in that same, I guess, basket or bucket? You own it. Joe owns it brand new on the bug that holds it as well. I mean, Steph, is that in that same basket? The current quarter Guidance was a bit weak, but it was a strong report.
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B
Oh, it was a very strong report. I think it has nothing to do with the earnings because they beat and they raised Guidance. I think it has to do with the second acquisition that they've done.
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Chronosphere.
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Yeah, they did. Right. So I think they've done two deals now in a span of like two months. And I think that's, that's a lot to handle. Lots a lot for any company to handle. While I do think it is very, very, very bullish for the long haul, platformization is what it is all about. It's offering the most stuff for your customers and not one company out there, not even CrowdStrike, which is the very best. Palo Alto is number two. Not none of them offer 100% of their stuff to their customers. And so you need to make acquisitions. And I've said this many times, there are 4,000 companies in cybersecurity world, private and public. We're going to see massive consolidation. We're already starting to see, I think the big five get bigger and bigger and bigger. And if people don't like this acquisition for the short term, I think they're missing out on the long term and what the needs are for their customers.
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C
Very, very quick acquisitions though. Cyber rock was what, 25 billion back in July and now this is about a three and a half billion dollar deal several months later. So the market's kind of looking at that, saying, okay, we don't want you to become a serial acquirer. The core of the business is really strong and a lot of the bookings have a longer duration, which lends itself well. If you want to view this along with CrowdStrike as more of that core cybersecurity holding, I think these two are distinguishing themselves above all else.
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B
No question about a CEO said last night on the call, 78% of organizations are implementing AI only 94% are still or 94% are still lacking security guardrails. That is a big, big statement. If you don't believe the total addressable market is bigger than I. After those kind of statements, I don't.
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Know what will want to come over to you. As we mentioned, you own the Bug cybersecurity etf. We're talking about spending on acquisitions with these guys. But I also want to mention the capex for Palo Alto was also higher than expected and we've seen companies be punished for just spending too much money in this quarter and also recent other previous quarters.
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D
Well, right. I think it's also partially the market is just weak today. But just to put some context on Bug, which is going to own Fortnite, crowdstrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler, all of those. We're a dollar away from the April lows like when we had Liberation Day. And so you know, that just shows you how far really since November. Bug was like close to 30, 36. It's now about to break 30. And so that's to me an opportunity we're all be looking to add here. Because if you're just getting a sell off back to those April lows to me, like Steph said is like these companies I believe are secular winners. There's going to be some more than others. But when you're getting this type of drawdown, which I don't think is fundamentally driven, I think it's a very good opportunity for me to. To add to Bug in a diversified way when I'm hitting once again, again, close to close to the April. April lows that we saw earlier this year.
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A
You know, while we're talking about lows right now, the Nasdaq actually hit a session low right now down just about 1%. Also our data team doing some great work. Bitcoin actually hitting its lowest level since about. You're about to say this about. Since late April.
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E
Yeah.
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Actually may have actually gone past that.
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C
Point if we could and allow me a couple of seconds just to talk about this. And I think I had a conversation with Bren several weeks ago about crypto and I said I believed our strategy. Strategy was late to Crypto holdings, late to adding Coinbase and we added strategy as well. And when we added strategy, I literally felt as though I wanted to vomit at that moment. I did not want to have strategy. Strategy is not. It qualifies for the S&P 500, but it's not in there because it has not gotten that approval. There's nothing we could do about that because purely the rules say, okay, based on momentum, you add strategy in and obviously at the next rebalance, we'll deal with it. But you have to look at what's going on with this stock. And I think if you pull the lens back here, let's go back if we could, for 20, 25, you're talking about a significant decline where leverage exists. Right. And as Bitcoin moves lower, I think you want to keep this individual equity name on your, your screen. By the way, for us, thankfully, we're equally weighted, so it's down to being a nominal position of like 45 basis points. But still, I'm not proud that we own it and I acknowledge that. But I think it's indicative of the mood of the market. And you have to be willing to change and understand when you see the signals that the mood of the market is changing, it doesn't mean it defeats the overall secular bull market, doesn't mean it defeats the very strong tailwinds that exist. But you just kind of have to understand, okay, it's a moment to step back because risk is coming off and once we see that to begin to exhaust itself, then we'll step back in and we'll buy some of the more quality names that we like.
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A
Yeah, strategy pulling back more than 6% right now when it turns. The other big story today is the return of the jobs report. That delayed September number coming in a lot better than expected, but with higher unemployment. CNBC's senior economics reporter Steve Liesman joins us now on what this could all mean for the Fed. Steve?
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E
Hey, Frank. Yeah. The jobs report generally supported the view that the labor market remains in decent shape or in Fed speak, did not suggest additional downside risk to the jobs market. But you're right, there were some cross currency in there. Nonfarm parallel to 119. That was against an estimate of 50,000. Unemployment rate ticking up 4.4%. That was actually towards the high side of the rounding. It was about 12 basis points in there. July revised down by 7,400. August by 26,000. So you lost 33 total. And the wages were disinflationary is what I might say about them. 02. Although the average hourly number, 3, 8 over year over year, not a bad number. I asked even Fed President Beth Hammock about this tension that we have out there between weak job numbers on the one side and high inflation above target on the other side in an exclusive CNBC interview.
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B
What we hear from the workers is that they're holding on to their Jobs.
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For dear life if they have them.
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B
We are in this slow, this low hiring, low firing environment.
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D
But what I also heard at that.
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Same roundtable was that the money that they have coming in is just not.
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D
Stretching as far as it used to.
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That $30, what used to cost $30 now cost 50. And so they really, you know, that inflationary pressure is still very salient for them.
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E
Markets making the pretty much a dovish bid on the chance of a rate cut. It's up now, likely because of the jump in the unemployment rate, but it's still a long shot. In the absence of additional data, the chance of a cut rising to 36% from 24% but that, you know, the Wednesday minutes made clear Fed Chair Powell did not have the votes for a December cut and that the bar may be high. And Frank, I don't know what happened in the last little bit there, but you did take a leg down in stocks. You took a leg down in yields as well. And that's going to play a role I think in the outlook for the Fed here. But the market seems to have kind of lost a bit of steam here, didn't it?
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A
Quite a bit of steam actually. NASDAQ hitting session lows, the S and P down about a half percent. So understatement is another one of your skills. Steve, I want to go back to what you were hearing from Hammock and just wishing when you're talking to central bank people, they always say they're data dependent. Okay. So you've been kind enough to send out the data reports that we're definitely getting from the government. We get jolts on December 9th and then a few days after they make their decision, we're getting the next jobs report. How can a Fed that's data dependent make a decision to cut or even knock or do anything but pause? I should say when they know another jobs report reports coming up in just a few days. And knowing what we saw in October, biggest layoffs in about 20 years I believe since according to Challenger Gray and Christmas. Then we got the Amazon layoffs, UPS layoffs that you and I worked on together not knowing that number. How could you cut in December when the next jobs report is coming out in just a few days?
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E
Well, I don't like as a reporter to start a campaign, but I am trying to do a little write in ballot for the Fed to pause its meeting. I think it ought to wait for that data to come out. I don't see what it cost them to delay it. And the reason, Frank, is Because it's important people to understand there's not just one jobs report that's going to come out with that November report. We're also going to get the October, at least the establishment side of the survey. So the Fed will be getting two looks at the jobs report, the October and the November data, as well as the revision. So I think a data dependent Fed ought to pause and be dependent on the data here. But that's just me. I think it's a good question you ask. They ought to wait for it. Right now there's a lot of discussion as to how much the job market is weakening. And then of course, what we're waiting for, Frank, and I'm on the edge of my seat here, is when we get that inflation data, it's supposed to come out on the Wednesday on the second day of the Fed meeting, but we don't know if it's coming out. We've not been able to get in touch with the BLS to tell us. Are you putting out that inflation report on time for November or not?
- [24:40]
C
Hey, Steve, it's Joe. Good to see you. Fed Governor Lisa Cook has made some comments here about the markets and about valuation, citing in particular stocks, bonds and private credit. How comfortable can we feel the Federal Reserve is aware of the private credit market in contact with the conditions of the private credit market. Should we, we glean some form of comfort that they are on top of that situation, if in fact there is one?
- [25:10]
E
Joe, that's a great question and I keep asking, I asked Beth Hammack about it today. I want to know that they're looking at the connection of the private credit market to the banking system, even the AI funding story. I want to make sure that they're on top of that. And they suggest that they are, that they're looking at it in general. Joe, as you know, the things that end up blowing up are the things the Fed is not looking at or that regulators in general are not looking at. There is some weakening going on right now or some rolling back of bank regulatory capital under the new regime of Michele Bowman. I'm not saying it's wrong. There are those who are concerned it's adding risk. She thinks she's adding essentially some ration, some reasoning or rationale to the, to the banking regulations, which were pretty tough in the post Dodd Frank era. So that's happening. I think you got to be on your guard, Joe, is all I can tell you and hope that there's enough equity in front of the debt to soak up the losses. Before it gets to the debt tranches.
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A
All right, Steve Liesman, thank you very much. Great interview with Beth Hammock, by the way. All right, coming up next year on Halftime, we're all over this rollover on Wall Street. Stocks now negative as Nvidia turns red, but there is some green out there. Wal Mart higher following earnings going to break down that quarter. Coming up next, more halftime in just two minutes, your commute day in and.
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- [28:06]
C
I do and this is a really strong report. Look, they talked about higher costs ultimately coming and affecting what prices will be for the consumer. And that is something that will be a challenge as we move through 2026. I thought what was interesting though is just the overall strength that confirms their significant market share, capture their positioning in terms of the ability to maintain scale and have that scale benefit for them. And then you have to highlight the strength of E Commerce and their ability to have delivery areas broaden tremendously to be able to lower the shipping costs, work with third party deliveries as well. I thought that was a really strong strain. So the stock is bumping up here. The one challenge for it is valuation. And the other challenge you're going to have in the coming quarters is going to be much more difficult. Comps stock sitting here at 106. I don't think you're getting aggressive if you don't own it and saying, okay, we're going to rush to buy it here. I think you might be able to get this a little bit lower, maybe in the low 90s at some point. But we do and we have had had positioning in it for quite some time and we maintain that.
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A
Brent, I see you nodding a bit while Joe is just talking. A lot of people see Wal Mart is a read on the consumer because they have the big grocery business and they've really grown the discretionary business for things like makeup, skin care, etc. Just your view of this report and what do you think it says about the consumer?
- [29:36]
D
Well, I think that it says more about to me where the consumer shopping and Wal Mart's ability to go upscale if you have Walmart park plus, you know, I find myself more and more ordering from Wal Mart versus Amazon because they have locations everywhere and you can get what you want in 30 to 45 minutes because they have locations everywhere. And so I think, you know, Doug McMillan and his team over the past almost decade have done just an incredible job not only competing with Amazon but also at the same time where his target has been left for dead. Wal Mart is effectively competing with Amazon from delivery as well as when the consumers pinch, they know they're going to get great prices and they've obviously increased their skin care, their makeup line, their clothing line. And so I just think it's been just such an exceptional company for so long and also unbelievable that I think the, the Walton family still owns like close to 50% of the stock.
- [30:33]
A
You had a retail analyst and Worldwide Exchange, she just basically they said the stuff's cute now. It's cute in Wal Mart. People like it. By the way, tariffs still big part of this story. Women Somalia yesterday saying they're going to see a bigger tariff impact, A bigger tariff impact going forward. We have names like Ulta Beauty on a five day losing streak. Joe, you own this one and as I mentioned, Williams Sonoma also on a five day losing streak. And then coming up we got another test the consumer. Ross, after the bell, another one of your names. Joe, your thoughts on this? Not, not tariff sensitive because they're a discount retailer. But just your thoughts?
- [31:01]
C
Yeah, lot of the consumer discretionary names that we hold in the etf, you're seeing a reversal in the momentum. Whether that's Garmin, whether that's Dash, whether that's Ulta or Royal Caribbean. Where you're seeing the strength is where there is price sensitivity on the part of the consumer. And that's tjx, that's Ross store. So I think maybe some of the positive news that we might have heard from Ross tonight was pulled forward after the earnings report from tjx. I do think it's two different stories. I think TJF is in a little bit of a better position, certainly with TJ Maxx and Marshalls. Be careful with Ross tonight. You might see a little bit of a disappointment on the earnings. But what do they benefit from? They're benefiting from that off price environment. And that right now is the right climate to where the consumer is going to go.
- [31:49]
A
By the way, the other point, don't forget about home goods. I know so many people that go to home goods now and just look at Steph's face.
- [31:54]
B
Store sales 5%.
- [31:56]
A
Yeah. Crazy.
- [31:57]
B
I mean Home Depot was a disappointment.
- [32:01]
C
Remodeling, I guess.
- [32:02]
B
I guess.
- [32:02]
A
But people are buying pillows clearly because a lot of people like to go to home goods. One more name. Gap reports after the bill. Steph, you owned this one before. Are you thinking about getting back in it and why get back in right now?
- [32:12]
B
Well, I mean I was up 20% in the name. I thought that the company did a great job of revitalizing their product brands. They have done that. Richard Dickson has done a great job and the management team he has brought in also really good operators. They've been gaining market share. I mean you had comps at Banana Republic of all things and old Navy up 4%. That was tremendous in the Gap up too. So they're doing the right things. They're getting people back in the stores. They have the traffic stock is cheap. So I have sellers remorse. But I was up 20%. So you know, I took the gains. And so I'm thinking, thinking if we see any kind of sell off in the name, I would get back in.
- [32:48]
C
All right.
- [32:48]
A
Gap shares, they're fractionally higher going into earnings after the bell.
- [32:52]
E
All right.
- [32:52]
A
Time now for some headlines with our Seema Modi.
- [32:54]
B
Seema Frank.
- [32:55]
D
Federal regulators say they found evidence of.
- [32:57]
B
Metal fatigue cracks in the engine mount of a UPS plane that crashed moments.
- [33:01]
D
After takeoff in Louisville, Kentucky.
- [33:04]
B
According to a preliminary report, the issue caused the engine to fall off and the plane to roll left and crash into nearby businesses and an oil recycling facility.
- [33:12]
D
14 people died.
- [33:14]
B
In other news to Homeland Security officials tell NBC News U.S. border Patrol will soon end its operation in Charlotte and head next to New Orleans. The exact timing of the winding down in Charlotte is unclear. Homeland Security says federal agents have arrested more than 250 people during this immigration crackdown in North Carolina's largest city. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky says he received a peace plan draft from the U.S. russia and the U.S. drew up the 28 point proposal, which Axio says calls for major concessions from Ukraine. Zelensky says he expects to hold a conversation with President Trump in the coming.
- [33:47]
D
Days to discuss, quote, the key points.
- [33:49]
B
Required to achieve peace.
- [33:52]
A
Frank Sima, thank you very much. All right. Coming up here on halftime, more on this reversal in the markets. Plus, we got our calls of the day. We're going to be right back after this. Don't go anywhere.
- [34:05]
B
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A
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B
By managing risk factors, you can change.
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A
Make brain health a priority. Ask your doctor about your risk factors and for a cognitive assessment. Learn more@brainhealthmatters.com and now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease.
- [35:23]
C
So the pillows will get delivered and.
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A
Everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [35:49]
D
All right.
- [35:50]
A
Welcome back. Let's get to some stocks that are on the move right now. Let's start with Block raising its gross profit forecast. Joe, you own this one.
- [35:55]
C
Well, that's what you wanted to finally hear from this company is that growth potentially could reaccelerate once again. The gross profit growth outlook for next year is somewhere around 17%. We haven't seen those numbers over the last several years. In addition, they're increasing the stock buyback plan by $5 billion. That's a positive as well. But let's understand something. The stock from a technical perspective still doesn't look very well. It is still below its 5,000 between 100 and 200 day moving average is more work that needs to be done. You have to see follow through in the next several weeks.
- [36:26]
A
All right, want to move on to our next call. Apollo upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley. New target 180 previously was 151. Brin, you own this one. I just want to get some of the commentary. They're seeing an improving outlook and also a reacceleration a number of businesses. Do you share that opinion?
- [36:44]
D
Yeah, I mean I love the company, love the name. You know they have a very successful retirement annuity business, insurance business with a theme. I think everyone has their hair on fire on private credit. I think that 80% of the people talking about private credit have no idea what they're even talking about. It's an incredibly heterogeneous asset class. And so if you look at the underwriters, Apollo is actually short first brand bonds. So they do a very good job, very diverse business and I do think their fee related earnings are going to continue continue to go higher. So I think that it's below the 5100 and 200 day like the stock, like blocks. I think that's a short term headwind but I think long term, especially as the economy continues, if it does continue to improve next year, Apollo will be a beneficiary once this private credit conversation dies down a bit.
- [37:34]
A
All right, to a few more. Rockwell Target raised from 410 up to 430. Maintain a buy B of a standard. Stephen, this one?
- [37:40]
B
Yeah. They had an analyst day that reinforced that there's momentum in the underlying business. Last quarter they grew organic sales 13% versus 3 sequentially. So they are seeing momentum build. Their operating margins expanded. Their free cash flow grew 14%. So I think this is just the beginning for an early stage cycle industrial.
- [37:59]
A
All right, one is an energy name Diamondback Target trend just very slightly brand 184 was the previous one. Now it's at 183. Maintains an overweight. Your view on that?
- [38:10]
D
Yeah, I mean they're probably the best MP player out there and they've been conservative. They're like they want to manage their balance sheet, have strong key flat free cash flow. But they are not going to continue to do heavy drilling with oil prices down and with an administration that continues to say they want cheap oil. So I think long term great winner. But definitely they would say there's a headwind in terms of oil prices and their, their willingness to, to, to drill more.
- [38:37]
A
All right, Steph, this is an interesting one. UnitedHealth target raise from 260 up to 280. You own this one coming off a five day loser. It's actually oversold. It's actually I think RSI under 30 for sure. I was looking at this one earlier. Just your view on the call.
- [38:51]
B
I mean in the Stock is at 310. So I mean the target going higher is the reason I guess just a 280 I guess is the reason, reason why the analyst has a sell. This is a 2026 story, Frank. They have to reprice their Medicare business and they will. But I do think it's going to take time because they have to catch up to higher utilization rates that they have been seeing that they totally mispriced it under the prior CEO. They've got the new CEO in. He bought $12 million worth of stock by the way the first time he could when he was named CEO. And I think he's got a great track record and I think he's going to fix this story. This number one company on sale.
- [39:28]
A
All right Joe, you were talking about Animal Spirits earlier. You tell me what you think this is this some insider selling Datadog lower after a chief executive officer or its CEO, I should say sold over $18 million worth of shares. The company is also on a seven day losing streak.
- [39:40]
C
Company is, is a very strong company. Software solutions, cloud based security monitoring in an AI environment. They've become far more integral very strong price appreciation year to date. And it's reflected by the fact that even with the decline that you're citing, it's just basically touching the 50 day moving average right now. I think today's decline is more about the Palo Alto Chronosphere deal. I think the street is a little bit worried about that that now some of the market share that Datadog has been dominant in over the last several years, they could lose it to Palo Alto.
- [40:15]
A
Not the insider selling.
- [40:16]
C
No, I think it's about the deal.
- [40:17]
A
Data Dog shares down more than seven and a half percent. All right, coming up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. We are back right after this break. And we're back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, always good to see you. Joe highlighted earlier the crypto was leading the declines in the equity market. I'm looking right now Dow, the S and P and the Nasdaq all at session lows. Your take?
- [40:54]
C
Well, it's absolutely true in terms of what the worry point has been for the market tactically, which is the fact that Bitcoin could not hold a bit last night after Nvidia reported. And of course Nvidia did nothing wrong in all of this. It delivered what it had to deliver. The response is what's more interesting. And in the immediate response to Nvidia's numbers, Bitcoin ripped okay, it went back to like 93,000 because everyone assumes everyone owns the same stuff. And it was going to be risk on again. And then it bled lower, bled lower and we did make new lows. So that at least implies that there are people who have portfolio stress who need to sell some stuff. And I do think that even the morning highs in the S&P 500 I was flagging earlier. Sometimes if it's just a reflex oversold bounce after the market's been pulling back, it gets halted by like a 20 day moving average. I mean, it's really short term, but that's exactly where we stopped. And where we're trading right now is basically Tuesday's lows. So the market is trying to test these range test these ranges and see kind of who needs to unload some stuff on rallies. And, and you have it from there. It's not that much of a fundamental story.
- [42:00]
A
All right, sell some stuff. But we're seeing Nvidia get sold. Is this the idea that people want to take those profits? Is it also concerns about still being a bubble? I mean, this report, easy, but they certainly didn't go away.
- [42:10]
C
What it did is ease the demand. Cliff concerns the idea that Nvidia didn't have visibility through next year. I don't think anyone is doubting that right now. I think people say it's already 8% of the S and P. A lot of people own it and it wasn't so different than what you would have assumed. So the stock is kind of in one of its plateau periods, I think right now and just didn't have enough juice to carry everything else with it because it's bullish stuff for Nvidia in terms of the desperation of people. Spending at those high margins means it's coming out of somebody else's pocket. And I think Microsoft never got a bid this morning and I think that's the, the tricky part right now. So apparently Nvidia is the not the catalyst to restore. Thank you. Spirit, by the way, because I never thought it was make or break. It just sort of has this spotlight because it's on a January fiscal year that's why we fixate on it because it's a month after everybody else reports. So is there a catalyst out there as we move towards the end of the year that could return the animal spirits or they just come back on their own? Yeah, I don't know about come back on their own. I do think the market wants clarity on the interplay of the underlying economic growth and the Fed. I thought that September number today, look, things didn't fall off a cliff in September. Unemployment rate leaks higher, we're going to get a cut. The market believes by the end of January. It's not that far away. So in theory, the macro could stabilize or maybe you flush out this positioning, everything looks cleaner and you got a good scare in the market. And then the seasonal ramp can, can.
- [43:37]
A
Happen in a delayed way. But we'll see Mike Santoli with his midday work. All right, straight ahead here on half, Stephanie Link AG a new name that hit record, hit it record high earlier today. We're going to reveal that name coming up right after the break. And welcome back to halftime. We are back with the committee moves. Steph, you got a new buy?
- [44:08]
B
I do. Natera Health Care, women's health care company. I've been looking at this stock for about six months. I just decided to pull the trigger. Very small position because it is, it certainly has had a nice run. But on any weakness, I want to make it a bigger bet. It's women's health and oncology and prenatal testing, transplant rejection that markets a $50 billion total addressable market. They have 100 ongoing clinical trials going on right now. I think the company can grow revenues in the 20 to 30% range. Their goal is to get gross margins to 70%. They're right now in the 60s. The valuation, it's not cheap. It has had a nice run. But I do like the total addressable market, especially femtech, which is technology and health care focused only for women.
- [44:56]
A
You know, really interesting buy up about 3% right now. So is the idea that once we get some of these issues like obviously the government shutdown is behind us, some job stabilization, that we're going to see more business just go to health care in general and more money flow into the health care sector.
- [45:11]
B
I mean, I think we have been seeing health care act really well in the last month, month and a half. So it's entirely possible it can continue. They've lagged for such a long period of time. But I really do like this one particular area with within healthcare focusing on women's issues. And they're doing it really well. Exact Sciences in the same business, a little more diversified. And they just got bought by Abbott.
- [45:33]
A
You mean like for Men's Health, though? Because they do.
- [45:36]
B
They do both.
- [45:36]
A
Okay.
- [45:37]
E
They do both.
- [45:37]
A
Yeah.
- [45:37]
B
Yeah.
- [45:38]
A
Interesting. So natero those shares, about 3%. All right, we got final trades coming up on Halftime. Don't go anywhere.
- [45:48]
C
Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [46:01]
A
And we are back right here on Halftime with final trades. Brent, you're up first.
- [46:07]
D
Google stock continues to perform well in a negative tape. Gemini 3 just rolled out. And Google DeepMind just also rolled out Banana Banana Pro, which is their great image generator. So I think the stock continues to go higher.
- [46:19]
A
Yeah, one of the green spots in tech. Steph, over to you.
- [46:21]
B
I like Starbucks. I think the turn is happening faster than expected. First positive comp in over two years last quarter. I think there's more to go, and I like it a lot, especially with this new CEO.
- [46:32]
A
And Joe, you got the last word.
- [46:33]
C
Health care reit, Welltower performing remarkably well. As rates move lower, I expect rates to do well.
- [46:39]
A
All right, before we go, one more look at the markets. Right now we're hitting session lows earlier. We're still pretty much there right now. Nasdaq down almost 1%. That does it for halftime. The exchange with the contestant brewer starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays.
- [46:57]
C
At 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:02]
B
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer. With stays under $250 a night, Vrbo makes it easy to celebrate sweater weather. Book a cabin with leaf views or a home with a fire pit for nights with friends. With stays under $250 a night, find a home for your exact needs. Book now@vrbo.com.