← Halftime Report
Halftime Report
PLAYING THE POP 11/21/25
00:44:14
The Halftime Investment Committee breaks down their best strategies as stocks push higher. Plus, new trades from Bill Baruch and Kevin Simpson. And Josh Brown spotlights one big bank on his Best Stocks in the Market list. Investment Committee Disclosures
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I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to.
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CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
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E
Listen in.
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B
Thank you, Carl, Leslie and Mike. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge. Scott Wapner front and center at this hour, playing the pop. Stocks hitting session highs as the tech sector tries to avoid its worst week since April. Our investment committee standing by to break down the move and much, much more. Gentleme for the hour. We have Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson and Rob Seachen. But first, quick check of the markets right now. As I mentioned, we're at session highs right now. The Dow is up just about 630 points. The S&P above 1%. The NASDAQ right around 1% higher. The Russell the small caps up over 2 1/2% right now, making the biggest move to the upside. And with that, Steve Weiss, you're right here to my left. I'm going to turn to you. It seems like the Williams comments were the start of all this and the market just kind of ran with it. So is this the answer to the question we're always talking about whether it's earnings of the Fed that's the driver for the market?
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F
Well, it depends on timing. When you're right in front of earnings, going through earnings, then it is earnings when you're right in front of the Fed and you know, we'll get the Fed decision in, in a couple of weeks, then it's the Fed. So look, the first look, I'm pretty consistent my view that, that we're going to have volatility, that I don't expect to see the, the January effect, which happens earlier each year until we get through it and then we get through the Fed. Now, yesterday was Stark turnaround only three times. The market opened 100 points since the 1950s and then finished in the red each of the three subsequent periods. Those three times you've seen major moves in the industry higher. However, I don't know if there was a Fed move in the offing. So right now, you know, the majority of, of of those that are polled believe and the odds that we see in the various prediction services are positive towards a cut. But I don't think it's a done deal. And I do believe, despite everybody saying that, oh, it doesn't really matter, it does matter, as we saw yesterday, as we saw today. So the bottom line is, is that the market should be okay right now, today, hopefully and obviously could be proven wrong. But I really don't see major upside until until next year or the end of December. Now that's because I just don't see investors continuing to catch a falling knife in big cap tech. And despite the decline in big tech, big cap tech, you know, and others have tried to go in right now. Some could say they're overvalued. I think it's case by case business basis and it's not. So I've been staying in positions in those and just putting on the shorts and the cues, but still have more exposure. I would have liked to over the last month.
- [03:58]
B
All right, you mentioned yesterday's action. Josh, I'm going to come over to you. Obviously we saw a big reversal in the markets following Nvidia earnings today. We're higher after those comments from Williams. Does the action yesterday, does it matter for today? Does it matter going forward for the rest of this year?
- [04:14]
A
Look, I think it's really healthy in a bull market to have these moments of extreme doubt and uncertainty. I think it's great you get a vix spike to 25. It shakes people out of some trades that maybe they didn't belong in to begin with or they were too heavy. It makes people second guess some of the more speculative things that they've been doing. And if you want this bull run to continue, you want those moments to happen every once in a while because it stops us from building these types of parabolic charts and outrageous expectations for returns that put people in a really bad position for the eventual corrections. We really haven't had a meaningful correction since April, but we've had, had, we have had these moments like yesterday we had one in the middle of October. Some people probably remember. And overall I really just don't view it as the end of the world. I agree with almost everything that Steve just said, but I have a slightly different point of view on, on the mega caps. I think they are going to lead us into year end if we get that sort of like melt up environment which we've seen in recent years. And I think these are the stocks that are going to be at the forefront once again. And I know a lot of people want to change a narrative and they want to believe like the energy, health care component of the market has legs and that that could lead us for another few months. I just, I'm just thinking about like the, the discounts in these shares right now relative to where they were just recently. And I think if people are bullish, that's where they're going to go. Like I'm looking at matter in a 26% drawdown. I know they're going to buy it. I'm looking at Tesla at a 90% drawdown. You know they're going to do it, it's going to aggravate everybody, but they're going to do it anyway. Nvidia and a 16% Amazon, Microsoft, both 15% off their highs. I just, I can't escape the feeling that it'll be second verse, same as the first and they're going to go right back to those names. You have the most liquidity, you have the most familiarity and you have people that for whatever reason, maybe they weren't in some of those on the way up in the first half of the year and they're just going to go to what they know. And so I'm a little bit more constructive in that part of the market than maybe Weiss is. But I agree with the rest of what he said.
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F
Yeah, just, I am constructing that part of the market. I haven't sold anything. As I said, it's just a time where I think you and I may differ. But I'd love to see what you say to come to fruition.
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B
Sage, go ahead, jump in.
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G
Yeah, I mean, I think we all have to appreciate how frothy the markets got in September and October and we may have pulled forward. The Santa Claus rally made it a little earlier and you obviously had some liquidity scares, you had some deleveraging scares and there was this Molotov cocktail that was thrown at the market and yet we're still, still only off 5% from the highs. And really where we saw the biggest shakeout is in some of the more speculative names. And you know, from my lens, that's a healthy thing. The Key is making sure you're in a position and you have a healthy athletic stance with enough cash to meet liquidity needs, buy into weakness and not be over levered. And it's clear that margin balances had built a lot. And so there was embedded speculation in this market. I do think you could see volatility continue a little bit. There was a life preserver thrown this morning by Williams, no question, with, you know, with a kind of dovish stance.
- [07:42]
B
I think was a whole rowboat.
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G
It was a whole rowboat. But you have to look at this as a valuation and positioning recalibration, which is almost necessary, which makes us think that this is going to be a shallower correction versus the deeper ones that you would typically get with a growth scare that would come from EPS cuts or cuts to GDP next year. I don't think you're going to see that just yet again. You might have to have some more deleveraging here in the very short run, but I think a little more intermediate term you're going to focus on those things. One more thing that I'd say, it's not like we're off to the races again though because we still have some pretty huge embedded earnings expectations in the markets for 26 and some pretty ambitious targets. Right. So that valuations are very quick.
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B
You just agree with Josh when you said tech's going to carry us the rest of the way. So if it's not off to the races, how does tech do that?
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G
Well, no, I think the companies you have a bifurcation within tech you got to look at it is K shaped. You have the haves and have nots. Look at the valuations on some of these names. They've come in quite dramatically next week.
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B
Which one of those would you say are on the bottom of the K or the top of the cake?
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G
So listen, I think the best position companies in the mag 7 are the ones that we are most overweight. It's Google, it's Microsoft, it's met at. Google is our largest overweight by far, followed by Meta second. There's some digestion issues in Metta. They have to prove that their spending is making sense. Sense from an AI standpoint, that they're able to monetize the AI. But when you have the eyeballs they have, once they get focused on it, I think they're going to be huge beneficiaries.
- [09:27]
B
Kevin, to come over to you, you and I, we were having a conversation before the show, if you don't mind me kind of bringing it into the show about whether there really is a correlation between crypto and megacap tech. Today we're not necessarily seeing it as much. Crypto is down and we're starting to see the market kind of starting, but it is being led by health care. In all fairness, health care is leading sector hit a record high. Is that something to worry about for an investor for the rest of the year, especially going into a low volume week next week, a holiday week. The idea that crypto and crypto margin buying can be the cause for equity.
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H
Selling, I mean it is, there's, there's little doubt after this week. And playing off your deleveraging comment, the one thing we learned with certainty is that Bitcoin 100% is not a correlated asset. For years and years and years we were talking about there's correlation, excuse me, that there's non correlation. This is a correlated asset. This is something where we're seeing so much intertwined trades on the more speculative side of things that when you watch it unwind today, it's not just the crypto trades, not just today, this past week really since the election, all of these small companies, all of these more speculative trades, we're seeing them down 20, 30, 40%. So that's the lesson, lesson that we learned today. This is a correlated asset and that.
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G
Debate is a liquidity based asset.
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H
You can still make money with it.
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G
I'm not saying no question.
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B
But then how do you trade until it hits a bottom? Because I think I've heard a lot of people in our air saying that the level of support was supposed to be around 87. You know, I've heard other numbers, 100 supposed to be. Exactly.
- [10:57]
G
Look at the technicals. You know, there's obviously different support levels. Whether it be talking about the stock market or talking about the, the crypto market. You're looking at moving averages. Josh, Cameron Dawson from, from my firm, Tom DeMarc. They are all looking at these levels and I'm telling you that right now a lot of those levels, provided you've gotten through the deleveraging are flashing green. Doesn't mean you can't overextend in text the next test, the next level. But it all depends on how much damage structurally was done from, from a leverage standpoint.
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F
You know, the issue with bitcoin, the reason why I trade, the momentum from my standpoint is that you don't try to pick the bottom on bitcoin. It's even more of a fool's errand to pick the bottom on Bitcoin where there is no tangible value. You know, when I look at what, what support is on say an equity, I've got two areas support. There's a technical support and I'm not a big technical trader, but there's the valuation support and that's like an EBITDA level, could be level, could be a price revenue. There is none of that here because.
- [12:07]
G
No, not, no, use that, that, that part's true.
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B
Quick note, right now the Dows hit session highs, jumped about 700 points. I'm looking at the S and P and the Nasdaq, both of them are higher above 1%. The S&P up about one and a third percent. Don't mean interrupt, but Josh, I want to come back over to you. How should we view this? Right now we're going into next week was the holiday week. It's about three and a half days of trading. How do you view this very small move to the upside compared to the week to date action and going into the weekend? I mean, give me your take on it.
- [12:39]
A
I just think today you're undoing some of the damage from yesterday. And the most important, important thing, which we have pointed out a lot over the last 10 years and it's only become more true. It's a really big mistake to look at the tape on a day like yesterday and think that what you're watching is human beings making a conscious decision that they no longer like Amazon or it's Jane street, you understand, It's Citadel, it's Susquehanna. These are quantitative trading firms that are responding to and reacting to signals that the human mind cannot possibly comprehend because they were created by computers and AI. It's, there's not always a narrative that perfectly fits with and today is the reverse of that. So today does everyone's opinion change 180 degrees from yesterday? Absolutely not. There, there are machines trading against other machines that are themselves programmed by a third type of machine. Stop trying to take your market narrative and write it in pencil, not pen. Free advice.
- [13:46]
G
He's totally, he's totally right, though. The machines can pick up on the syntactic intent that Williams had this morning and totally pivot it like that and trade way faster than you or I could ever think about doing it.
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B
So it's like a tropic thunder moment. Is the dude who looks like the other dude looks like the other dude type of thing. So really quick ahead of this mini rally we're seeing in Williams. Well, sparkle came out with this 2026 outlook. A lot of hope in the first half. They say bubble in the second half they put out their year end price target for 26, it's 7,800, about 15% higher than we are today. They say they're going to be overweight. Tech, energy, financials and materials. They say I will ultimately the market higher in the second half. Kind of playing off the thing you guys are talking about. And also Fed balance sheet expansion starting in April could drive the sharpest rebound in liquidity conditions. Weiss, I want to come back over to you. Is that the issue here? We need a little bit more liquidity?
- [14:37]
F
Well, you know, Josh pointed out about the algorithm, it's believed that they're more than 50% of trading and then when you take a look at, at what index funds own, that's also about 50% of, I mean they're not to be added of course, 50% of every public equity. So there is somewhat of a lack of liquidity in the market under conventional standards. But there's still more than enough liquidity in the market for any outcome and it really depends on the underlying equity where the liquidity is. In the big cap stocks, there's no shortage of liquidity on any day. There is and that's really what we're talking about. So to me I agree again with Josh. That's where the, that's where the money is going to go because of the fortress balance sheets, the gross aspects. And eventually, eventually I think investors are going to realize that while they all have massive capex that they've talked about up to 100 billion, they're not going to be able to deploy all that because you're not going to have the energy, you're not going to have the skilled labor, the electricians, etcetera, that are able to build out the data set. But primarily it's energy. So to me it's going to be like a massive skyback stock buyback gets announced and never gets filled and then they announce another buyback and incorporate the prior buyback into that. So once that reality hits, I think we'll be fine.
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B
So that means you should buy energy right now. I mean the idea that you go up, there's going to be a squeeze, right?
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A
Electricity. Because it's electricity.
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B
Yeah, it's going to be nuclear, it's going to be natural, natural gas.
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A
I mean, to build on that, build on that point though. They're building to build on that point that Steve is making. There are physical constraints in the physical world that will make it so that every one of these capex announcements isn't as good as signing a contract and sending an ACH wire. GE Vernova is telling the street that they are now fully booked up through 2028. So if you come to them with a project today, that's where that project is going. Think about how long from now 2028 is. We have a new president maybe in the White House. So this idea, this idea that like somebody could tweet something about the capex of their company and just will it into existence. You need, you need transformers to be built. These are house, house sized assets that convert energy into electricity. Like it's a, it's a very long game. It's not as simple as hey, we're going to do this and then it just gets done. And what that means is it's like a backlog of earnings beats far out into the future, provided it continues. Because you don't know when these things hit, when the money gets spent. It's, we're dealing with atoms in the physical world. It's not Twitter.
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B
All right, that's a fair point.
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F
You know, the other point is, is that we're involved in a company makes linear generators and those that company's been around for, for less than a decade. But you have no idea for all these technologies, including small nuclear reactors, what it takes to build them at scale. It's phenomenally, phenomenally tough with any capex technology, hard technology, post software. So that's where it's going to fall down. Then finally, I think is critically important. Do you really think that politicians are going to not push back on data centers in their backyard when they've got all their constituents saying I'm not supporting this through higher electrical prices, particularly when I've been under pressure, under pressure from inflation going forward. So we're seeing that play out.
- [18:18]
B
I mean that is an interesting point. The energy constraints are obviously a very important point. Where is it all going to come from? And then there is some questions about regulatory, especially when it comes to nuclear. We talked about Constellation Energy this week in that $1 billion loan from the administration. But you're right, there's going to be some people concerned about what used to be Three Mile island starting back up. And I mean maybe rightfully so, I mean, after the catastrophe that happened there. By the way, we're about 17 minutes in the show, we're going to talk about Nvidia right now. It might be a bull market record. We wait 17 minutes, get into it, everybody owns it. Kevin, I'm going to come over to you. Nvidia still lower right now it's down About a third of a percent, half a percent right now. But the markets are higher also. We saw a great earnings report and the markets moved lower. What does that say about Nvidia? Is it time to change the way we look at it as a potential market mover on earnings or a bellwether where the market's going directionally?
- [19:02]
H
How sad is that when you have earnings that were that positive across the board and when the guidance was so good that the stock sells off. You and I were talking in the morning when the stock was up and here it is down again for a second day in a row. I would look at this as opportunities to add to it. I think Josh nailed it this morning at the open with respect to all of these companies that are down, they're going to attract money. Maybe there's tax selling, maybe there's reasons people need to take profits here. You know you've got wins in Nvidia. So to the extent that you're going to take profits there and offset it kind of makes sense. But from a fundamental on a foundation standpoint, is this the bellwether that will lead the market higher? Probably will continue to do so until it proves otherwise.
- [19:41]
B
You feeling bullish on this one? I mean Wells Fargo came out maintain an overweight rating price target to 65. I mean looking at where the stock's trading right now is trading under 180.
- [19:50]
G
Right now and at 26 times forward P it rarely gets down to these levels from a valuation perspective. We've added it two times. We could never own this company for so long because it didn't meet our valuation relative to growth screens. We bought it several times. We're still slightly underweight and video but have a very big position. If you look at what the opportunity is in this company, I suspect they're going to continue to deliver on expectations for a very long time. I think what was interesting is markets were very much pivoting because of the backdrop. Not so much as it related to earnings and what it in video did. But when you get from companies that are delivering good earnings in starting to sell off it is changing the narrative in the market. Hopefully that's not too long did that that that happens. But you could see there there was this desire to deleverage. You had Tom Lee on the show, I think Frank and he was talking about what was going on in crypto and the deleveraging there. That kind of created an interesting lead for some of these other tech companies. These risk on companies to follow. I think these are different worlds I also think there's been too many parallels and you saw it in these earnings of Nvidia to Cisco in the late 90s where they were, they were taking pieces of some of their customers. Vendor financing? Yeah, vendor financing. You know what, this is an important business for them to get this data infrastructure built out. I feel like we are in a very different environment relative to, to late 99. Sure there's things that rhyme all the time. However, these companies that are driving this are very profitable, very solid balance sheets and I think are going to be well supported.
- [21:40]
B
Kevin, I'm going back to you in a second to talk about some of the other things that are going on that are kind of reminiscent not only of the dot com but also of the great financial crisis. Before we do that, Josh, coming over to you looking at Nvidia week to date down 5% again after those fantastic, fantastic earnings. Is this a viable dip or do.
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F
You need to wait?
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A
I mean I, I can't buy it. My, my average cost is single digits and I've held it forever. But like if I were not invested in the stock and I had no position and I was like wondering how did I miss out? What do I do? Blah blah, blah, I pull the trigger at 180. I think, I think the stock gets back over 200. We already saw a sneak preview of that a few few weeks back. Nothing in an earnings report or in the guidance tell me that things are not even better than they were the last time it was above 200. And from my perspective, I think it's inevitable. So I would not be afraid to buy it here.
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B
So Kevin, I know something you were looking at. We're talking about some of, I guess the hand wringing when it comes to the trade report out hedge against an air crash emergence as Oracle credit default swaps that market just exploding right now. And that's kind of reminiscent of what we saw back in the great financial crisis vendor financing siege is talking about. CBS is now is that just a really troubling sign to you as an investor?
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H
Well, it's certainly like a dirty word that you want to stay away from. You're reminiscing about the 2000s, the.com bubble. You're bringing in words from the 2007 8. Great.
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B
We're going to talk about vendor finance and we got to talk about all.
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H
The things I think it's fair. Now the challenge was you saw Oracle go up $100 on signing a deal. Josh, you mentioned ACH versus you know, an IOU. These things are really problematic when you think about who's going to be paying the bill. Will these companies be in business to foot it? So with the hedge funds that were out there shorting the AI trade and using these collateralized debt securities to do so, made sense. And I don't know if it's over. Sold. With respect to Oracle, we're a little underweight. We've got it covered, 30% of the position. One thing I'm hearing, Frank, is also that there's an announcement coming with Oracle with respect to a share buyback, talking about your share buyback. So I think there's a lot to watch here. We're not selling the stock, we're not running away from it. But when it echoes of 2000 and echoes of 2007, we listen, pay attention and make sure we're, we're really, really careful with that name.
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B
Fair enough. Coming up here on Halftime, we got some big moves from this investment committee. Our Kevin Simpson, he's buying this week's diploma. And one energy name. Speaking of energy. And Bill Baruch is bailing on a beaten up Max seven stock. He's going to join us next to make his case much more. Halftime coming up right after this. Think of your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office. So why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast.
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- [25:32]
B
And we are back on Halftime with some committee moves. Bill Baruch is with us. Bill, going over to you. You just exited your Tesla position. Walk us through that and why.
- [25:41]
E
Yeah, this was a name we bought back in July of last year. We're up 100% on it. And as an active manager and as a risk manager, I couldn't walk Away from yesterday without doing it had broken down on November 12th out of a consolidation range. And yesterday's early action was a retest of the 50 day moving there from yesterday as well as the indices with huge tails overhead. And this, this does worry me. I want to do something get ahead of it. But not only that, there is a little bit of a shift in risk sentiment. So you know, if we're going to start to see any type of move lower, I want to have more flexibility. So we exited our main portfolio as and this gets us in our main portfolio. Go back to about 4% cash and as the week evolves into next week and see how we close here today. But forward Tesla is a name that you want to look to be trading more and getting back above 400 I think was a great thing. But I don't want to see the same pattern develop that we saw last year and this thing fall out. So I'm getting ahead of it and getting more flexibility in the weeks to come.
- [26:48]
B
All right, Bill Baruch exiting his test, the position right now, test of about one and a quarter percent. Bill, great to see you. He might have been using that Starlink Internet. I think the team over there was like talking about this. We got to get out of here. Kevin, coming over to you. You own Tesla as well. Kind of interesting time to get out of Tesla as we see Elon Musk and the President apparently making up. It seems like they're making up, yeah.
- [27:08]
H
But who knows how long that'll last. Frank, I agree with Bill's thought process. This is more of a trade. If you're an investor in Tesla, you're going to be for a very long time because you're not owning it as we've talked about a million times as a car company. This is robotics, this is energy storage self driving cars. That's the reason we own it. In our growth portfolio we don't look at the day to day action. We write calls against it consistently and we'll hope that 10 years from now everything that was dreamed up comes to fruition.
- [27:36]
B
All right, so you agree with the trade. You want to get out here even with the idea of robo taxi launch and everything else. Because it seems like this company has a lot of upside side going into 2026.
- [27:44]
H
Well, I don't know about the short term. If he's a trader and he wants to free up some cash and he's doubled his, he's doubled his money on a position from that standpoint, Frank, it doesn't matter what the ticker is you're just thinking risk management.
- [27:55]
B
That's fair. And you guys have any thoughts about getting out of Tesla right here Again, it seems like at least in the near term Elon Musk is being a bit more friendly with the administration. Robotax is rolling out, made a lot of announcements about humanoid robots, ending poverty, making it so none of us have to work anymore. Money, they no money.
- [28:11]
F
You know the interesting thing on on humanoids or robots is that it's already a crowded field, so it's going to take a long time to really put them into the household. But it's crowded. I mean you've got figure which, which without a product, a real commercial product just raised capital, $38 billion valuation. And then Robotax is of course we know how crab that is and we don't even know what the economics of it are going to be. They will not be the same positive economics that you see with Uber because they're the driver absorbs all the real costs on Robotaxis and I know that they've worked out some some planning for his for this. It's the waymos of the world, it's the Tesla's of the world that are going to assume those costs of maintenance, of insurance, of fuel, etc. So it remains to be seen right now, now he's marketing it great. He always does. And I guess you got to bet on Elon, even though I choose not to.
- [29:07]
B
Josh, any thoughts about this trade? Tesla, the competition for driverless vehicles? I know you're a big Uber guy. Another company in that race as well.
- [29:17]
A
I have nothing further to add on the subject of Tesla. I'm long Uber. I don't really view them as being in competition right at the moment. Tesla's automated taxi service still has for the most part human beings driving them and I have no idea how many they have to have out on the streets to actually do that profitably. Uber is an asset light company does not own the cars, does not maintain them, does not have to fix them or service them. And it's an entirely different situation and I just don't view the two as being in any way comparable.
- [29:55]
F
Josh, should we be adding to Uber here? I'm sitting with it too.
- [29:59]
A
I mean I refuse to sell. I understand why it's fallen. It's as cheap as it's been all year long. You're talking about like a 22 multiple. Every time they report they're making more and more progress on the automated front in terms of partnerships and initiatives and ultimately in the future, all of these automated cars for the most part will be owned by private equity firms. They'll be like an asset, like a yield asset. I don't view that as as being where the value will accrue. I think the value of having millions of automated taxis on the road will accrue to the software layer. And Uber already has capacity in terms of the amount of riders who want to use one. So I remain bullish, Steve, and I refuse to abandon the stock.
- [30:50]
B
Uber shares up just about a half a percent right now. Time for our headlines right now as well with our Bertha Coombs back in Wood Cliffs. Bertha, good afternoon.
- [30:58]
D
Good afternoon. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky says he spoke with Vice President J.D. vance today about the U. S Backed plan to end the war with Russia. The conversation came as President Trump gave Kiev a Thanksgiving deadline to accept the proposal. Zelensky says his country will work with the US And Europe to find a path to peace. But he added Ukraine faces a difficult choice between potentially losing its alliance with the US or its dignity. Republican Oversight Chair James Comer ordered Bill and Hillary Clinton to appear for in person depositions next month in his committee's investigation into the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He says further delays will not be accepted. The committee subpoenaed the Clintons in July, claiming it is seeking more information about Epstein's history. And the Intuit Dome will keep its name for Los Angeles Olympics as part of a groundbreaking deal for the upcoming Summer Games. This will be the first time the Olympics will allow naming rights in its history. The move is expected to net the game's millions of dollars above its projected budget.
- [32:08]
C
Frank.
- [32:09]
B
All right, Our Bertha Coombs. Bertha, thank you very much. Coming up next, Josh Brown's ready with his best stocks in the market. One financial name he says is getting momentum after already rallying nearly 25% this year. We're back right after this break. Stay with us.
- [32:24]
C
For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org at Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take. From the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.
- [33:10]
B
And welcome back to halftime. We're back with Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. Josh, what are you looking at today?
- [33:15]
A
Can we talk about Morgan Stanley, Mississippi? This is a best name right now. It's been for a while. Look at that uptrend starting from May almost perfect. We had a violation of the 50 day moving average but then a little bit of a kick save here in the high 150s. I think the stock is good right now you got it at about a 9 or 10 point discount from from, from the high this is over the last 15 years been one of the most transformative stories on the street. They had a sweetheart deal to buy part of Smith Barney then they were able to buy all of it and in that transformation they basically became the heavyweight champion of wealth management amongst the Wall street banks. They're doing deals like buying equities and they bought E trade a few years ago. Every time they do something it's additive to the funnel of where they're going to find their next million clients from for their their wealth managers the big surprise this year has been the return of the IPO and M and A and all the deregulation on Wall Street. And when you look at the numbers they're reporting at the investment bank part of the business they're just, they're blockbuster. Every deal, every IPO Morgan Stanley is on the COVID of the book Every big M and A situation they're always representing at least one of the parties and their pipeline from from from what it looks like is more robust now than during the 2021 IPO boom and the deals are higher quality. So I think this is a name that continues to beat expectations. Wealth Management revenue in the last quarter was up 13% year over year. That's now an $8 billion quarterly run rate business and going higher. Client assets are at 8.9 trillion. They publicly stated their goal is 10 trillion. I think they'll get there and they manage succession really well. James Gorman did an incredible job. Now it's Ted pick continuing the same momentum and so technically I think the stock is right where you'd want to take a shot on it. Fundamentally I think this is a company that's got A Very Bright 2026 Josh.
- [35:25]
B
Colin Morgan Stanley heavyweight champ. What was the heavyweight champ up again.
- [35:29]
A
Wealth management on for sure. I mean this is the most the most advisors and the most profitable business.
- [35:36]
F
All right.
- [35:36]
B
A lot of bank ownership. None of you Morgan Stanley we start with you Goldman Sachs. He says the heavyweight champ of wealth management your take on his pick of Morgan Stanley is one of his best stocks in the market.
- [35:46]
F
Yeah look it was always a puzzle to me why why Morgan Stanley had lagged so meaningfully the Move in gold and now it's catching up. Fortunately or unfortunately, I own so much of Goldman, I feel that adding Morgan Stanley would be making the same bet yet again, even though different dynamics. I'm more likely to have Citibank. Jane Frazier has done a phenomenal job but right now I'm just staying packed with Goldman, which is one of my largest positions.
- [36:12]
B
All right, Kev, you own JP Morgan. So do you see it's going to start with you though, Kev, your take on Josh's pick?
- [36:17]
H
Yeah, I would say Morgan Stanley be our third in the tier of the hierarchy of the names. We own JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs pattern both for over a decade but love everything that Morgan Stanley does. And I agree with this is a tremendous stock and a great opportunity. If you're not exposed to this space, please take a look at it.
- [36:33]
B
Mr.
- [36:34]
G
I'm just going to talk about the financials since you hit some of the things that we own. We remain overweight financials in all our portfolios. There's solid earnings momentum, consumer fundamentals, reasonable valuations increased, increasing returns of capital to shareholders. A lot to like for long term investors, especially as the capital markets continue to open up. I think you got to watch closely the economic environment though because they're inextricably linked to that. Our largest holding to the best of the best is JP Morgan in this space.
- [37:09]
B
All right, take a look at Morgan Stanley right now. Pulling back a bit. Also one other stat, the XLF ETF pacing for its third straight down month and also having its worst streak since October of 2023. All right, coming up, the not so friendly skies. Two of Josh's air taxi plays are taking aim at each other over claims of corporate corporate espionage. We're going to debate that coming up next. Stay with us. And welcome back to the half. Let's hit some of Kevin's moves. Kevin, we teased this one. You're making a move in the energy space. Tell us what move that is.
- [37:53]
H
Yeah, well, let's keep it as boring as humanly possible and stay away from the mag 7 crypto and everything else that's going haywire. This month we added to our Marathon Petroleum position. We haven't owned this stock since 2022. In 2022 it was a saving grace for us at the time we had ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Marathon. The portfolio is down to just a small position in Chevron. So we're built now up a 2% position in Marathon Petroleum, pays a 2% regular dividend, strong dividend growth, lots of return of cash to shareholders. If you factor in the share buybacks, ones that they've already done, not just announced, it's like a 9% yield to shareholders on top of what is really a nine times forward earning. So if we do see the trade come back within the petroleum space, we want to have at least more than one name in chevron.
- [38:39]
B
All right, 2% dividend as well. You got one other move. This relates to tjx. Walk us through this.
- [38:45]
H
The important thing with this trade is just looking at what happens with options around an earnings report. So on Tuesday, we sold a covered call on TJ Maxx, one of our favorite names, and they had outstanding earnings, excellent forecast. I mean, this is one of our most loved stocks. And we may have to make a decision at the end of the day to roll this call. But we sold a 150 strike, brought in a $50. This will expire today. Right now, I think the stock's 151. So you may see us roll this. But again, it's hedging volatility. We took in amazing premium. When these things work, they work in an awesome, awesome way.
- [39:19]
B
Moving on to some calls and some stocks on the move. We're watching shares of Joby Aviation. So that company is accusing its rival Archer of using stolen information from a former employee to quote one up a partnership deal with a real estate developer. In the lawsuit, Joby says this is, quote. This is a, quote, corporate espionage plan. And premeditated Archer calls the suit baseless. Josh, your take.
- [39:42]
A
All right, so I'll let the lawyers handle that. I have no idea what went on, but it seems like there is one guy who took some files on his way to join Archer from Joby and left some files unlock. They're alleging that allowed him to access it. I don't know. I don't care, really. I own both. I have a bigger position in Joby than Archer. But they're both small positions. EVTOL101. Basically, these companies are a few years away from commercialization. There's no revenue here yet. However, Joby did acquire the blade business, which does bring in some revenue. It's not evtol revenue yet. They're still operating the helicopter, the heliports on the Hudson river and the east river in Manhattan. But the idea is ultimately they'll replace the helicopters with the evtol. That's an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle. Basically, Joby is in the lead here. I think most people would acknowledge that, but it's very early. They were all at The Dubai Air show over the last week. And we got to look at the, the product itself now operating in the United Arab Emirates. And they're signing deals in Saudi Arabia. And you're going to see these things. I just don't think you're going to see a lot of them. So if you're investing here, you have to be patient and you have to tolerate high volatility. Last thing on this, Toyota owns 15% of Joby and Toyota will be their manufacturing partner. I think they spent like $900 million to invest in the company. And that's a really key relationship. One of the largest mutual fund shareholders is Bailey Gifford, if that name sounds familiar. These are the Scottish lunatics that made a huge bet on Tesla like 15 years ago and turned that into $29 billion or something like one of the biggest home runs ever in the history Investing. They own 6% of Joby, so they know a lot more than I do. And I'm following some smart money into these names.
- [41:41]
E
Yeah.
- [41:42]
B
By the way, you can call it an EVA to like an electric vertical aircraft so you don't have to evitalize. So clunky. But by the way, Weiss has been waiting to respond everything that you just said. So why.
- [41:50]
F
No, not when you respond. It's just funny. You know, industrial espionage is alive and well and the idiocy of these employees were involved in a lawsuit where an employee downloaded all our proprietary information and during discovery we found it on his new employer server. So complete moron. You know, who doesn't realize there's a digital trail on both sides? So it's always mind blowing.
- [42:14]
B
We've got to let the lawyers handle this one too.
- [42:15]
F
I'm a lawyer, don't forget. Don't forget I'm a lawyer.
- [42:18]
B
All right, coming up next here on Half, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. We're back right after this. And we're back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, we're seeing the markets higher after those Williams comments. We were asking earlier, does that mean the Fed's the driver of the market at least right now. Why Said well, at least now earnings sometimes. Sometimes it's the Fed. You're taking what we're seeing.
- [42:57]
I
I think it's always everything in different proportions. I do think that it helped take some of the pressure off Williams comments help take some of the pressure off. If you went into last night under the impression that the Fed wants to be hawkish and wants not to listen to the markets when they plead for maybe we need a little bit of help. But more to the point, I think after you get a day like yesterday, this nasty downside reversal, disorderly action in crypto, a lot of the speculative junk that was already down a lot getting pressed even further to the downside, you wake up tactically and you say, okay, is the market going to act like somebody's trapped here and needs to sell? Are we going to actually still see this unwind? And it didn't really happen. You actually saw the market trying to figure out what looked overdone and rotate into the stuff that was away from the damaged, you know, semis or the busted momentum plays. And so you have regional banks doing great. You got even the alternative asset managers have a bid, consumer discretionary and industrials. Industrials looked ugly yesterday and they're firming up. So I think it's really much more about, okay, maybe the afternoon portion of yesterday's decline was a little bit overdone. We'll see if this sticks right here. It's still a wounded market, though. It's got to rebuild. It's got to prove itself that, that you know, that this was an overshot.
- [44:12]
B
To the downside wounded market going into a holiday shortened week. Yeah, low volumes. We have to wait and see.
- [44:17]
I
Low volumes can work both ways because actually seasonally things tend to be pretty popular. Positive Thanksgiving week.
- [44:23]
B
Mike Santoli with his midday word. Mike, thank you very much. All right, final trades. They're coming up on Halftime. Stay with us.
- [44:32]
F
You following the Halftime Report podcast.
- [44:34]
A
What are you waiting for?
- [44:36]
G
Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [44:43]
B
Welcome back to Halftime. It's time for final trades. Rob, you're up first.
- [44:47]
G
V Stra Corp. BST, it's pulled back 25% over the last few months. We continue to be overweight based on the great secular growth opportunity in data center in our view is the biggest bottleneck in the ecosystem's energy.
- [45:02]
B
Weiss, you're up next.
- [45:03]
F
What was that? What was that Accent V. Strox Pittsburgh accent.
- [45:08]
G
A city of winners.
- [45:10]
F
I'm going with Leidos. Leidos haven't talked about for a while but they are in the sweet spot that the department that the Department of War is looking to capitalize so eloquently put, Steve, thank you.
- [45:23]
B
Next.
- [45:24]
F
I'm from Manhattan.
- [45:26]
G
Wal Mart.
- [45:27]
H
Amazing earnings. E Commerce is expanding, membership model is growing and management gave us strong forward guidance.
- [45:33]
A
Josh Zoom reports on Monday. Revenue should be up 3.1%. Earnings should be up 4.1%. Anything above that I think the stock works alright.
- [45:44]
B
That's gonna do it for halftime. The exchange starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [45:59]
C
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half Time report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer. our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier that comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.