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Halftime Report
Reacting to Nvidia’s Earnings: Brad Gerstner Joins Us Live 8/28/25
00:55:50
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the best strategy right now with Nvidia earnings in the rea-view mirror and stocks at record highs. Plus, Altimeter Capital's Brad Gerstner joins us to react to Nvidia's earnings last night. The stock is his second largest holding. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Silvana Hanale
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it.
- [00:28]
Brad Gerstner
EDWARD Jones Member, SIPC Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking, frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations.
- [00:38]
Scott Wapner
It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering, quick serving eateries and how hospitals become.
- [00:44]
Brad Gerstner
The patient scanning data managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on.
- [00:48]
Scott Wapner
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity.
- [00:51]
Brad Gerstner
And expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business, powering possibilities. Restrictions apply.
- [01:01]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.
- [01:15]
Brad Gerstner
Carl, thank you very much.
- [01:16]
Scott Wapner
Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour with Nvidia earnings now in the rear view and stocks at record highs, what is the best strategy now for your money? We explore all of that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Surat Seti and Bryn Talkington. I should also let you know that at the bottom of the hour today, altimeters Brad Gerstner will now be joining us. It's an exclusive interview. In video is his number one position. We'll ask him his reaction to those earnings last night about what the stock's price action today tells him and how he feels about the markets overall, whether there's an AI bubble or not. We'll explore all of it. 12:30, make sure you're around for that. But Josh, let's open it up here. So we're at record highs. GDP revised up financials at record highs. The Vix is at 14. Nvidia beats stock action. Price action is pretty muted. What's your take?
- [02:09]
Josh Brown
I think Nvidia was $150 stock at the start of the summer and now it's 180. Historically, recently the pattern has been that the stock runs up into earnings. It's not a post earnings reaction story. It used to be, but things change. I think everyone understood this would be a good quarter. I think everyone understood the asterisk was around China, but that largely they had figured out the tax ramification. We had no idea whether or not there'd be sales in China for next quarter. I think that was like the noise, the meat and potatoes here, the actual signal, the thing that matters. The CFO came on and talked about 3 to 4 trillion dollars in an air infrastructure spend between now and the end of the decade or whenever the timeframe was. And if you're focused on that, you're not worried so much about how the stock traded five minutes after the report. So that's where I am with this name. I think it wants 200. I think it'll get it. And everything that you were worried about, if you were worried about the Capex environment, I think should have been allayed, at least for the time being.
- [03:14]
Scott Wapner
Okay, that's a good summary of how you feel. And Brent, I'm not going to go as deep on this as we otherwise would, considering that Gerstner is going to join us at the bottom of the hour. And I want to save a lot of the meat of our conversation for that. But I do want your take. I want your take on the price action today. I've got Ives is bullish. Raskon raises his price target. And by the way, he's going to be on the closing bell with us. That's his first reaction to the print. And then you have Seaport today sticking with a sell rating and a $100 target while it leads the market. It being Nvidia, it's seeing real constraints on its growth. The company will struggle to deliver upside to numbers this year aside, of course, they mentioned from the wild card of China, they have the only sell rating on the street. What do we think coming out of this number, what it means for this market now?
- [04:09]
Silvana Hanale
I think Josh covered the price action perfectly. But what's happening? Stacey asked great questions on the call. I don't know who Seaport is and so I'll stick with Stacey upgrading to over 200. I think though, where you have to think through this three to $4 trillion spend, which I'll just spend a second on it, is that Colette said by 2030 over the next five years. And one of the analysts actually asked the math around that equation. And so what's interesting is total I spend infrastructure spend has doubled year over year to $600 billion. And so they took that 600 billion multiplied by five, added a little bit more to get that 3 to 4 trillion. I do think my one thing you should take away from this is they're very concentrated in their client base. And so I think that we're still you're going to see a ton of spend from the hyperscalers. There is a high amount of concentration and I do think China is actually more of an upside. An upside than a downside because they're not having any of those numbers factored in.
- [05:07]
Scott Wapner
Just on that. Since you raised the point, I want to inform our viewers on what you're referring to. I thought Christina Parts Nevillos flagged this as a wow. That's a. I raised Joe. Three customers for Nvidia now represent 23%, 19% and 14% of the company's accounts receivable. That's up from just two customers at 17 and 16% respectively, back in January. This is a company that is super dependent on a very small number of very big buyers. Yes. So I guess there's concentration everywhere.
- [05:47]
Josh Brown
Isn't there a problem at some point? Potentially, but not for today. For the market. This is a great example of just carry on. Volatility reaches its lowest level in 2025 today, as recorded by the Vix.
- [06:02]
Scott Wapner
I think what's interesting that we have.
- [06:04]
Josh Brown
Not yet mentioned is that the uptake on Blackwell is incredibly strong, probably stronger than we expected. And in addition to that, the buyback story is remarkable.
- [06:14]
Scott Wapner
And the buyback story 60 billion extrapolates.
- [06:17]
Josh Brown
Even further into the overall market itself. Burini Associates puts out a report that says we've reached $1 trillion in buybacks already in 2025. That's the fastest on record. The top five companies in buying back their stock have already bought back $320 billion worth of stock. So whether it's Apple, Alphabet or now Nvidia, that seems to be a common theme and that's exuding. You could say they're wrong in their buybacks, but they are exuding confidence in something about the environment.
- [06:46]
Scott Wapner
Let's do the read through then for the market. UBS today says the overall strength of the quarter may offer some reassurance for investors after signs of stalling momentum for large cap tech. If you look at the month to date, the stall shows itself. Mega caps, month to date. I just take out Apple because it's. It feels like it's a different animal in this conversation. Alphabet's had a great month. It's up 10%, but Nvidia is only up 1. Amazon's down, Met is down, Microsoft's down. Do we get some reassurance? Do we feel better about where we are? I think you do, because what you did not hear on the call was that the hyperscalers were slowing down. And that would have been a second derivative of slowdown because they would have seen their customers slowing down. Especially since Nvidia is one of the last real, the last biggest company to report earnings. So that gives you some confidence that their customers are still seeing demand, they're still investing, they're talking about how much more that's going to be in the future. Which means that the demand not just for these products but all the other businesses that Nvidia is now growing into its data centers, it's the gaming, it's all the others are now firing on full cylinder. So I think the opportunity and the total market addressable market keeps growing for them. We get a take from Baird today to Josh which says the ROI and the narrative around ROI return on investment of AI is getting less fuzzy. Quote, we believe that further evidence of positive ROI will lead to more allocation enterprise AI budgets, although importantly at a pace we expect to be slower than some of the hype community, the hype currently suggests. What do we do with that, Alphabet? I mean, by the way, Google, they're investing another $9 billion, another 9 billion in AI infrastructure in Virginia.
- [08:28]
Josh Brown
Yeah, there's a cottage industry of people who want to naysay and talk down the impact of AI for various reasons, some self serving, some political. But in the end this notion that it's three customers, five customers, it's almost nonsensical. There are 7 billion Internet users. All of them are going to be engaging with AI software, AI services, agentic AI, that those are the customers. So the hyperscalers are basically a conduit to get in video technology in front of 7 billion Internet users and millions of corporations and enterprises and government, governments and other organizations, those cost their true customers. The end users don't go to directly to Nvidia and, and say hi, I'd like to order three GPUs please. So it's a stupid conversation and I don't think concentration risk here is the issue. I think the bigger issue is that this is now too big of a business for it to be immune to like a true economic slowdown. It's very pro cyclical. There's just no way on earth if Alphabet, Amazon, etc. Endure a sustained drop in share price and profitability issues in their core businesses that they'll continue to spend at the rate that they are. So if you're in this because you think it's a secular trend and it can defy the larger economic forces of recession, etcetera, you're in for a rude awakening. It won't work out that way. Nvidia crashed in 2022 I think was 70% drawdown. There's just no way that you can say this thing is immune to the economy. So if you want to think about the risk here, it's not customer concentration because again, the whole Internet is, is being redone. And I. The true risk here is the same risk you face in any other stocks, which is economic risk. It's a huge story, but it's not immune.
- [10:28]
Scott Wapner
Well, I was also going to say the customers who can't get the chips right now, when they will get the chips, they won't want the chips because that's going to be the economic.
- [10:35]
Josh Brown
That's 100, right. That's a bad signal. You don't want to hear that.
- [10:38]
Scott Wapner
All of a sudden plentiful. Well, the double ordering stops and then the customers will say, I'll go to your secondary chip, not your primary. All right, a reminder again, as we move from Nvidia, Brad Gerstner, bottom of the hour as a CNBC exclusive. We get his first take on his biggest position in this market. Let's move to. I mean, I guess there were some questions going into Nvidia's report. There were definitely questions going into CrowdStrike's report.
- [11:01]
Brad Gerstner
Right.
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Scott Wapner
Especially as we question software overall. They beat. Their guide was lowered though, than, than expectations. We take a look at that CrowdStrike. Guys, please, let's look at the chart.
- [11:17]
Josh Brown
Let's look at the chart because the chart tells you everything about what is going on today.
- [11:21]
Scott Wapner
Well, now look at what is.
- [11:22]
Brad Gerstner
Yeah, that's right.
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Scott Wapner
Could we get a, can we get a broader thing to show you what happened post earnings.
- [11:27]
Josh Brown
So if we're able to. When we're showing the, the charts include the 200 day moving average, what you'll.
- [11:33]
Scott Wapner
See is that this morning the low.
- [11:35]
Josh Brown
For CrowdStrike went exactly down to that 200 day moving average and it held. And what it did from there was it reversed higher. It's tracing out a very powerful technical signal right now. It's called an outside up week. That means you trade below last week's entire range and now you are above last week's entire range. That's a signal of exhaustion. Scott, you hear us talk all the time about good news and bad price action. This might be an example of bad news and good price action.
- [12:05]
Scott Wapner
That's a sign of a pretty good market that you're in. If you deliver right. If you deliver results, Josh, that are deemed to be a disappointment. But yet the stock, the price action is that. Yeah, well, that ain't a negative.
- [12:20]
Josh Brown
It's A great point and I love scenarios like that, but I don't think that this should be characterized as a disappointment. They beat on the bottom line, they beat on the top line, they beat earnings by 10 cents a share. And I think what people are saying is that they're surprised that they're not seeing higher upside guidance given how incredibly well all of the segments of the company's business are performing. The stuff going on with Falcon, with Charlotte, with all of these new services that they're rolling out, AI for the agent gauge, etc. All of the superlatives, all the numbers, all the year over year, air growth, it's. I mean, it's literally off the charts. So I think analysts were just saying this might be very conservative guidance and maybe they're concerned. Why is it conservative? If that's the only negative you can take from CrowdStrike, then you understand the price action Joe's describing. I saw it down 7% last night and I left. I said, who? What muppet algorithm was programmed to sell this name after hours?
- [13:20]
Scott Wapner
Hey, man, there have been some questions and legitimate ones about this space. We are. We already know that the, the ETF that tracks all of this is having its worst quarter since 2022. That's. Let's add that to the context.
- [13:33]
Josh Brown
That's a dynamic coming into this, is that the cyber names have been down for the better part of the last six weeks while the market is rallying. So you have to include that in the narrative of what we witnessed here post earnings. Where are you seeing this intraday reversal? And it's moving higher. Net new ARR for fiscal year 26, 40% growth projection year over year. And that means margin expansion, which is free cash flow margin expected to reach 27%. Q4, 30% for next year. Like all of the metrics that you would care about in an air business are going in the right direction.
- [14:08]
Steve Liesman
It's the.
- [14:09]
Josh Brown
A clear industry leader, at least in my opinion. It is. And people are going to want to own this stock. And I looked at that reaction last night. I said, this is clown show.
- [14:17]
Scott Wapner
I mean, I give you quarter to date, right? Fortnet's down 25%. This name down 15 and a half. Checkpoint 13, Zscaler. All the headliners are lower. By the way, George Kurtz, another exclusive to tell you about with Kramer tonight. Mad money, six o'. Clock. He's the CEO of CrowdStrike brand. You own the bug, right? Is that you? Yep, yep. Worst quarter. Worst quarter since 2022.
- [14:41]
Silvana Hanale
So all these conversations around air are crowdstriker are great. Where did this all start though really go back to August 2, August 7 when Fortnet released that stock was down I think around almost 30% that day, like 25 to 30% because as a around ARR that actually revised guidance down by I think 50 million. And so I think that somewhat sent ripples is that has there been an over purchasing and so you get this growth scare within this secular space that you have this cyclical concern around that air revenue. And I feel like that's the only reason why today CrowdStrike has a muted return is because still have that overhang but the numbers don't bear that out. But I do think that when you get those concerns around air like Fortnet which reduced it by 50 million, you're going to get just a bloodbath in the names. And so I think until that growth scare goes away, there's still going to be an overhang which is a good opportunity to add to these, to these names longer term.
- [15:41]
Scott Wapner
Let's talk about a stock we haven't talked much about lately, which is kind of surprising to say given how big it is. Tesla. When was the last time we talked about Tesla with some substance on this show? Now they've quietly had that stock has quietly had a pretty good month. It's up 11% this month. And speaking of quietly, maybe that's the story. Maybe because once Elon Musk left the government and he went back to his day job, investors have felt better. There hasn't been a lot of noise. Sure the sales numbers have been bad, down 40% in Europe. BYD is tripled there. So there's still global issues with Tesla's sales potentially as a result of what Mr. Musk has done in the political arena. But Brin, what about this one? It's at 11% this month. I feel like we haven't talked about it in a while and maybe that speaks to the environment that this stock and Mr. Musk himself have gotten themselves into more recently.
- [16:46]
Silvana Hanale
Well, you know, I remember we talked about it at least around six weeks ago when Elon came out and said he was going to start his own political American party and the market's hair got on fire and the stock was down about 10% that day to around to 93. And remember I talked about it, I said I'm going to buy more here at 293. I'm going to sell the August 22nd, 22nd calls it 320 and I got $14 and look. So that stock got called away that position. But this is to me, a great way to play the stock right now as it's in this transition, because when you have the fundamentals, which I've said a bazillion times, the fundamentals, you have lower revenues, lower earnings. And so you just have to it is what it is, okay? And so until that changes, I still feel the stock's going to be in a very strong channel between like 290 and 350. And so to me, that's where I look to add to the position. There's a huge call premium because I think buying the stock and selling calls, you've made a lot more money than just a buy and hold in this over the past two years.
- [17:46]
Scott Wapner
Let's talk about other stocks that are in the news today. We've been watching the vaccine makers all day, many of which are lower Moderna Pfizer. And that's given the continued upheaval by the HSS HHS secretary with the cdc, and undeniably more hostile stance that he has maintained on vaccines in general. My question to you, panel, are these stocks investable, Surat or Untouchable? Because you've got Merck, you've got jj, you got gsk. Investable or Untouchable? I think if you look at where we are for the next couple years, if you just isolate the vaccine part, that part's not investable. But the other parts of the businesses at J and J are very strong. Okay? And Glaxo has other businesses as well, so does Merck. So you're getting negative value. You're not even getting zero value for these businesses. What you just have to kind of wait out is what happens when you get another administration and order a turn of events at something. That's the investment thesis. Just wait it out till you get another. No, the investment thesis is that science will tell you that some of this stuff does work and right now the administration says it doesn't. So hang on a second real quick, because I want to come back to that. Steve Liesman has breaking news. What do we learn?
- [19:12]
Steve Liesman
Steve, we're going to have a hearing on the Cook dismissal or the Cook lawsuit that was filed, which was objecting to her dismissal at 10am tomorrow. And that's at D.C. district Court. Scott. And as we said earlier, these things tend to be heard quickly by the courts and usually adjudicated pretty quickly. At least a temporary injunction is ruled on very quickly. So we'll get some answer relatively quickly, Scott, to this question of whether or not Cook is in or out immediately, while we wait perhaps a longer term discussion of a whether or not the dismissal for cause was legal and whether or not the courts will find treat a Federal Reserve governor differently from how they have perhaps other officials that have.
- [19:58]
Brad Gerstner
Been fired by the president.
- [19:59]
Scott Wapner
You know, Steve, since, since we're doing this on the fly and, and I don't think this has been released anywhere yet, I'm just going to I literally got this sent to me just now from Bill Pulte, who heads fhfa, which started this whole thing in the first place. Now, I apologize to our viewers that we didn't have a time to make this up for you to see it as I read it, but I'm going to read it anyway. And Steve, I want your reaction to it. Quote, in her filing, Ms. Cook does not deny that these are her mortgage documents. So one has to wonder why she or Jerome Powell would want this to be a part of the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to have preeminent integrity and which is critical to the safety and soundness of the US Mortgage market. That directly from Bill Pulte, who sent it to us only. So it's a CNBC exclusive here. So and we've discussed this on the network. I heard you talking about it with Carl in the prior show. There really isn't an exclusive explicit denial, is there, in the, in the Cook response to all of this, or give us some more light on, on, on the issue itself and how the Pulte response sort of frames all that?
- [21:22]
Steve Liesman
There is not a detailed denial, but there is a denial, Scott, and not having known we were going to discuss this waiting for my computer, nor did.
- [21:33]
Brad Gerstner
I figure it out.
- [21:34]
Scott Wapner
I apologize, but I know I don't want to wait on that. I don't want to wait on the news. I didn't know either. So.
- [21:41]
Steve Liesman
Well, let me tell you what she says here, Scott. Well, I will tell you what she says, Scott, which is in the, in the lawsuit. It's, it says of the allegations made by the president, if she did them dash, which she did not, that is explicit explicitly in one of the documents. But I will tell you, Scott, she did not detail how all this come to happen. There's a talk about this being potentially a clerical error, but that is not the point of the lawsuit. I would point out the point of the lawsuit, Scott, is that an allegation is not for cause as far as they understand the law. And it says if that is an if an allegation is for cause, the person president can make anything up and then just fire a federal Reserve Governor, it makes the point that Bill Pulte, which he has not addressed and not responded to my questions. Bill, Bill, call me if he ever talked to Cook. And it says that Cook was denied a hearing or any discussion of this. So Bill is probably right here that in all of these documents she doesn't deny these are her mortgages, but she does deny having done anything wrong here. And Pulte has not himself said that either the President or Pulte has given Cook a hearing or asked her side of the story. We also want to know, Scott, who else they have made public. I mean, look, whether or not she did something wrong here, that's a big issue. It's also an issue as to whether or not, as is alleged in this lawsuit, this is part of a concerted effort by the President to take over the Federal Reserve Reserve. And this lawsuit is full of what they call the pretextual part where they go through all of the efforts by the President to hammer on Powell, ask for lower interest rates and take control of the Federal Reserve Board. That's what they say. This is about Bill Pulte writing in to us. Thank you very much for that information, Mr. Pulte, telling us, look, it's really about the mortgages and we'll see in court tomorrow at 10am where the sides move meet.
- [23:43]
Scott Wapner
But what about part of the point that I think Pulte is, is making here? As an aside, it's almost like the distraction that this is the cloud, if you will, around this story that now hangs over the Fed and the point of whether the chair himself, at an especially critical time for the central bank itself, would want that cloud of suspicion, of doubt, of distraction hanging over it.
- [24:20]
Steve Liesman
You know, Scott, I think that's an, that's an issue. And in the case of situations where Federal Reserve, Federal Market Committee members have been accused of things, of actions they've taken while in office, they have quietly resigned. One of the points of the lawsuit is that she did not do these offenses while in office. And then I would offer you and your fine people around the table two clouds. One is the cloud of Lisa Cook continuing to serve while she's got this cloud of suspicion over her. The other cloud is the ability of the President to make up any allegation he wants and then fire somebody based on that allegation and not a proven fact. I would say those are two rather dark clouds, both of them. And I wonder if the second cloud is the darker of the two.
- [25:13]
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's put up the statement now again, which has been given to CNBC exclusively just so we can see it and our viewers can can see it as I read it again, again, this from Bill Pulte moments ago to me about the whole Lisa Cook episode, the affair, the drama, the saga that continues to play out, quote, in her filing. Ms. Cook does not deny that these are her mortgage documents. So one has to wonder why she or Jerome Powell would want this to be a part of the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to have preeminent integrity and which is critical to the safety and soundness of the US Mortgage market. I just wanted to go over it once again, State Steve, so that our viewers could see it in front of them. Let us know what else you get. Did you want to say something else? Did you want to say something else?
- [26:04]
Steve Liesman
No, no, just that, I mean, one has to wonder why Bill Pulte is so involved in the Federal Reserve. There is no part of his brief that actually goes there, you know, and it's almost like the more he talks, the more this seems like part of a political attack. It seems. It's just, I get it. It's an issue. It needs to be adjudicated. And that's the weird part about all this. Why isn't Bull Bill Pulte a fine American, allowing Lisa Cook her day in court here? Now, I acknowledge the other part, which is I think a problem for Lisa Cook is why does she not come forward and tell us what her side of that story is. But just be clear, Scott, she hasn't been charged yet. There's been no, no actual legal charge against her from the Justice Department. All we know is that justice is investigating. So I think there's two sides to this story and I guess both are troublesome.
- [26:58]
Scott Wapner
Steve, thanks. And thanks for just going on the fly with us. It's just the way things develop sometimes. But I appreciate you doing that. That's Steve Liesman, our senior economics correspondent. All right, we'll step aside. We'll take a quick break. When we come back, we do have that other halftime exclusive. Altimeter Capital is Brad Gerstner. He's with us next.
- [27:21]
Silvana Hanale
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- [28:21]
Steve Liesman
The world runs on energy and as demand increases, Sempra is rising to help meet the challenge.
- [28:27]
Silvana Hanale
Through our Texas and California utilities, we're.
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Scott Wapner
Investing billions to help power these booming economies. We're building tomorrow's energy infrastructure today, modernizing one of North America's largest energy networks with next generation technology to power the.
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Steve Liesman
Everyday lives of nearly 5040 million people. That's positive energy.
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Scott Wapner
Learn about Sempra's financial results@sempra.com investors and now a next level moment from AT&T business.
- [28:54]
Josh Brown
Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment.
- [28:56]
Scott Wapner
Of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day.
- [28:59]
Josh Brown
You've got AT and T5G so you're.
- [29:01]
Scott Wapner
Fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow.
- [29:05]
Josh Brown
Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with.
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Scott Wapner
Any issues with ease so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available. Available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [29:38]
Silvana Hanale
We'Re back on Halftime. I'm Silvana Hanale with your CNBC News update. President Trump said in a social media post today that he may recommend holding a Republican National Convention before the midterm elections next year in a bid to gather support. Conventions are generally held before presidential elections, but the president's move comes as the midterms are set to be a tight race for control of the House and Senate. The White House says it fired a member of the Surface Transportation board. In a LinkedIn post, the regulatory Later, Robert Primus called the move legally invalid and wrote he'll continue his duties as a member of the board, which is considering a proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads. The White House didn't offer a reason for the firing, saying only that he didn't align with the president's agenda. He'll be live on cnbc coming up next on the Exchange. And Ford says it's recalling nearly half a million vehicles over brake fluid issues. Federal regulators say a hose in the brake system could break and make braking more difficult, increasing the risk of a crash. The recall affects the Ford edge SUV from 2015 to 2018 and the Lincoln MKX from 2016 to 2018. Scott?
- [30:54]
Scott Wapner
All right, Silvana, thank you so much for that. SILVANA and now let's get to our halftime exclusive now with Altimeter Capital founder and CEO Brad Gerstner. Well, this is a treat for us. I appreciate you joining us after this earnings report. I was like we got to hear from Gerstner. I mean, come on. Can't wait. It's your number two position.
- [31:14]
Brad Gerstner
It's good to be here. SCOTT. And you know, it's a banger of a report by Nvidia. Obviously the markets moved a lot since you remember earlier this year the stock was down at 114 on the deep seek scare when everybody freaked out and said we're going to have intelligence without having to have all this compute, which was clearly wrong. Freaked out again over tariffs in April. The stock got down I think 95 bucks a share. So the stock had gone from $95 a share to basically $180 a share and they delivered a quarter that was a banger quarter. You know, look at it. It's 56% growth. This company is accelerating at scale. It's the largest company in the world. And you know, not only the largest company in the world, it's an incredible American natural resource. The fact that it's here, the fact that we're leading in AI, it's the most important company in the world. Margins at 73%. They just guided to 54 billion ex China. Right. And there were some people who thought it could be even bigger, but the stock's essentially flat today. But imagine doing all of this. This is a company that is accelerating at scale, the largest scaled build out of compute in history, despite all the wrangling on tariffs in China, despite the transition and the ramping up of a new generation of chips in Blackwell that a lot of people thought they couldn't pull off without some major hiccups. And you know, I kind of laugh, Scott, because I look back, I remember at the end of 24 I had some friends who said we're going to short Nvidia because they can't possibly grow this fast in 25. And they blew away expectations in 25. And now some people are wringing their hands about 26. And what did they hear on the call yesterday? Jensen said, you know, when he was on our pod last year, he said we think the build out between now and the end of the decade is $2 trillion of total compute. Last night on the call they said 3 to 4 trillion of total compute. He told us that inference was going to billion X. Right. Why do we have this massive build out? Because inference time reasoning has led to an explosion. Inference. Think about this stat. A year ago Google per month was doing about 9 trillion tokens a month in terms of inference generation, right? Compute generation. Today it's 980 trillion tokens. So from 9 trillion to 980, it's 100x increase in a year. You have to build compute in order to do that. So the world is massively supply constrained when it comes to computer. There are 50, you know, he said yesterday the world will continue to grow at 50%. So think about this. If you grow and people ask them, are you going to grow up 50%? He said, well, I think we're going to maintain market share. So the consensus for next year is 250 billion of data center revenue. If they grow up 50%, that's only closer to 300 billion or closer to 8 bucks a share. Right, and $200. At 8 bucks a share, you know, your, you know is about 25 times so below market multiples in terms of P E. So here's a company that I think is, is hitting on all strides, has an incredible leader and you know, I think they delivered the quarter they needed to deliver.
- [34:22]
Scott Wapner
Let's talk about a few of the issues. Jensen Huang said that bringing the Blackwell chip to China is quote, a real possibility. This issue has obviously been in the headlines lately, enough that you posted on X earlier today that says now is a critical time for the U.S. government to accelerate and U.S. aI companies to rapidly expand and compete around the world, including Nvidia chips in China. Seeding China and its massive AI ecosystem to Huawei and dragging our feet on license licenses will only hand more market share to the China AI stack? I guess after reading that, my question is to you. Are you saying that the government is in the way here unnecessarily and needs to get out of Nvidia's way?
- [35:15]
Brad Gerstner
Well, listen, I think over the last couple years the government has, you know, followed a course of action that they thought was correct, but it wasn't right. The Biden area diffusion rules created massive obstacles to the diffusion of US AI technology around the world. Those have now been repealed. You know, David Sacks is kind of leading the charge as the head of AI strategy. And the US government and the president himself has now signed an executive order that says we need to accelerate licenses and we need to accelerate the US Stack around the world. It's existential. We want more market share, just like we wanted US Internet companies, companies to win around the world. We want American AI companies to win around the world. And you can't win around the world. And Jensen has made this point time again. And it's true. China is 50% of the AI researchers in the world. Right. We want Tesla competing in China, we want Apple competing in China, and we want Nvidia competing in China and winning over the hearts and minds of those AI researchers. If we cede China to Huawei, it makes it vastly easier. And we already know the US has underestimated Huawei's chips. It makes it vastly easier for Huawei and the very, very sophisticated model ecosystem they have with things like Quinn Coder or things like Deep Sea to win around the world. And so the U.S. i think, was going too slow. We're accelerating, but this is a reminder that we need to do it. And we see some of this wrangling going on in Washington. But I think the president, he said again yesterday that, that, you know, he has a great relationship with Xi. I think we're going to get a big deal done with China. I think it will include Blackwells in China and it needs to include Blackwells in China in order for the US to maintain the. Remember the number that I quoted at the top of the show, Scott, all the guidance for this company excludes China. China is a $50 billion market for Nvidia unto itself. So I believe that the probability they're going to be able to sell chips in China is north of 50%. They already can sell H20s in China, and I think they ought to be able to sell a competitive Blackwell deprecated Blackwell chip in China as well. And I think they'll be able to.
- [37:24]
Scott Wapner
And as a shareholder, you're okay with the government taking a piece of those sales if that's what it amounts to, as it has apparently with the H20.
- [37:33]
Brad Gerstner
Listen, you know, I think it's an unusual tactic, but, you know, this president has set himself self. You got to under. If you want to understand me, you need to understand that I'm a deal junkie. And so, you know, Jen, I'll leave it to Jensen and the president to make that deal. For me, what I think is most important is that America's best AI technologies are competing and accelerating around the globe just as. As Sachs and this EO said. And it's got to compete not only in places like Southeast Asia and Europe, but if you want to maintain market share in those places, you got to go compete in China. And I'm thrilled to see OpenAI also opening offices around the world. This is what Google did in the early 2000. Right. And by the way, Google didn't have to go to Washington to get a permission or to get a license. They just went and competed around the world. And now the world runs on the democratic principles that are embedded within Google. I want to see the same thing happen in the age of AI. Okay.
- [38:32]
Scott Wapner
I feel like you punted on me a little bit, to be honest. I mean, this is not necessarily. Let me finish. Let me finish this. To me, this isn't. This isn't a deal maker at his core making a traditional deal. This is. This is the US Government telling a private business, you can do business in a market, but we're getting a piece. And let me steal. May present itself.
- [39:11]
Brad Gerstner
Let me Steel man. Okay. The case is both a shareholder, but maybe the case from the President's perspective, okay, as a shareholder, of course, I don't want him to have to pay a 15% incremental tax to the government. Right. Like, who would want that? But as the President or as Howard Lutnick, if I said, you know, we're going to. We don't know that this is 100% good for this country. We think it's good for the country, and so we're going to let you do it. But as a hedge against that, we're going to scrape a little bit of those revenues and we're going to redeploy those into chip development in the United States or other resiliency measures in the United States, because we think that's a good hedge. If this turns out not to be the case. You know, I think it's unconventional, but the fact of the matter is this White House is doing deals around the world that are unconventional. They know some of them are going to work great, some of them won't work as great. So that's how I would steel man. It. I don't think that some big boogeyman or Jensen wouldn't have made the deal to begin with.
- [40:11]
Scott Wapner
So the other issues I think investors are getting their arms around today as it relates to the company, the quarter, the environment, how concentrated Nvidia's customer base is I think Josh's take earlier on the program and I'm not sure if he had a chance to hear it, but it wasn't as big a deal as the numbers would make you feel. The fact that three customers now represent 23, 19 and 14% respectively of accounts receivable and that's up from two customers that Nvidia is so incredibly dependent on, on a very small number of high caliber buyers. How do you respond?
- [40:52]
Brad Gerstner
Think about it this way, Scott. It's kind of like saying the United States exports are dependent upon Europe, India and Southeast Asia, right? The fact of the matter is these companies are as big as countries. They are the biggest buyers in the world. They're the only ones with the balance sheet and the free cash flow that can scale up compute at this level. And thank God we have companies like Microsoft and Google and Metta that have the machines to do R and D and to scale up, compute and deliver these things at this scale. It's a huge national advantage. I don't view that as a, as a problem. In fact I view that as an asset. Of course they also talked about 20 billion of new sovereign wealth or new sovereign purchases that they've scaled up from next to nothing a year ago. So they're diversifying the revenue. But the biggest companies in the world are going to continue to be the biggest buyers of tokens and delivering those tokens. But you have a long list of at scale. Think about the money that OpenAI's raising. Think about the money that Anthropic is raising. These companies are, you know, have scaled faster than Google or Meta did in the early days and they're massive buyers, core, weave, etc. So I think there's enough diversification and when I talk to the leaders of those hypers, hyperscalers, the one thing that come, you know, becomes crystal clear that they are all supply constrained and scrambling for every compute resource they can get their hands on. And by the way, this is not just a winning formula for Nvidia, right? There's going to be a winning formula for Broadcom because tpus are getting hell of a lot more demand than the world thought TPUs were going to have, right? So all compute, Cerebras, Groq, you know, Core, the work being done at coreweb, all of it is scaling up because the world is in a voracious cycle to transfer all the world's compute to accelerated compute so it can support AI.
- [42:43]
Scott Wapner
So since, since you mentioned OpenAI and how much money they're raising. They're raising from investors like you.
- [42:49]
Brad Gerstner
Right.
- [42:51]
Scott Wapner
Sam Altman made headlines lately talking about a bubble in AI. How investors are overexcited, I think was the word that he actually used. Do you in any way feel like you're investing into a bubble?
- [43:06]
Brad Gerstner
Well, I think it's you guys. He, he got asked the question on are we now in a bubble? And he said his answer was, I think two things can be simultaneously true. In the short run, investors can be overexcited. And in the long run, this is the biggest thing technology has ever seen, and we're probably underestimating its impact. Right. The same thing happened with Google. Right. But if you got overexcited and bought Google at $100 a share, you know, up from $50 a share in the IPO, were you punished or not? You just had to hold on to it for a couple of years and it blew through those numbers. And so my view of this is, of course, we have excess exuberance and excitement in the very short run for these companies, but I think when you look at the medium to the long term, AI is still underappreciated from, for the impact that it's going to have on enterprise and consumers on a global basis. So we're thrilled to be investing across the stack in AI. And of course, OpenAI is, is a market leader and we're thrilled to be partners.
- [44:04]
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean, matter is your top position, frankly, and you've been a longtime supporter of that. I'm curious. I mean, they, they may be added a little to the debate with news that they're reorganizing their AI unit again.
- [44:19]
Brad Gerstner
Right. Multiple times.
- [44:20]
Scott Wapner
Where. Hold on. They. They've dialed back their, their AI hiring and they've seen some people leave. What did you want to respond to?
- [44:32]
Brad Gerstner
Well, first, again, I just think the headline was silly. Alexander Wang came out on Twitter. He's. He's running super intelligence and AI at Meta, and he said we're not slowing anything down. In fact, I've probably never seen more aggressive hiring in AI in my, you know, in any category, by any company in history than what I'm seeing out of Metta. The paid packages, the people they're going after, the reorganization into the division. I've told you many times, the reason to own Meta is because Mark Zuckerberg is in beast mode. He's not going to, you know, as a founder, he will do whatever it takes to compete and win in AI. And by the way, the company is competing and winning in AI. You look at what they're doing. Their margins have expanded far faster than anybody thought. Their growth has accelerated and maintained these high rates of growth faster than anybody thought. They're applied AI. They're applying AI to target content to win the content wars, whether it's Reels or Instagram or Facebook or WhatsApp. And they're monetizing everything better in a way that's more targeted, less intrusive, etc. So I think that's a great example of what you can expect to see when you apply AI. And the thing I would tell you on a forward look for matter is, you know, I've talked a lot about gain, right, the golden age of margin expansion. People are going to be able to leverage I grow the top line without growing headcount a lot. So what I love seeing at Meta is yeah, they're going to be aggressive going after the Alexander Wang's of the world, but at the same time, Susan Lee, the CFO there is going to be very disciplined. In fact, I think I have a hat behind myself. This is, this is a Meta hat, says free cash flow. That's the hat that I think Susan gives out to her team at Metta. You know, like that is a mentality. Both of those things can be true. You can aggressively invest in a targeted way in AI and you can also drive the business to be a more efficient.
- [46:20]
Scott Wapner
I mean some would, some would look at that hat and say, yeah, that's, that's exactly one of the things we're worried about, this free cash flow of all of these hyperscalers that's just flying out of, out of the tanks.
- [46:31]
Brad Gerstner
Think about this, think about this, Scott. We were very worried about the free cash flow of Amazon back in the period 2007 to 2011 because they were secretly digging a gold mine, the largest gold mine the world's ever seen. And it was called awb. And everybody said, where the hell are all these profits going to? Like, what are you investing in? And nobody really understood the power and the potential of aws. But you made a bet on a founder, Jeff Bezos, and he delivered returns that were insane on nwc. I think that's the way you have to look at the investments that are going on in COMPUTE and AI today these, these companies. Mark Zuckerberg is digging a massive gold mine, as is Sam Altman. The gold mine is called AI. They believe the future returns are the largest returns, the biggest prize in the history of technology. And that's the bet you're making, right? But you're absolutely right. When you look at the, you know, the pre Capex earnings power these businesses. They've never been greater, but they're aggressively investing in compute and that 5 to $600 billion of capex. Remember back to where we started the show. That's why Nvidia is growing at the rate that it's growing, because these companies are not going to take their foot off the accelerator.
- [47:45]
Scott Wapner
There's no question about that. It certainly doesn't appear. Let's sneak in a break. We'll come back. I want to open it up. Yang has some questions for you. I want to address the question too with everybody of the that the question of whether AI is killing software. I know you have thoughts on that. We got some big reports this week, including stocks that Brad owns. We're back after this.
- [48:05]
Silvana Hanale
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Scott Wapner
Fancy work platform that somehow knows exactly how we work.
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Silvana Hanale
And its AI features are only literally saving us hours every day.
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Brad Gerstner
We're big fans.
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Silvana Hanale
And just like that, teams all around.
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Brad Gerstner
The world are falling for Monday.com with.
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Silvana Hanale
Intuitive design, seamless AI capabilities and custom workflows. It's the work platform your team will instantly click with.
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Brad Gerstner
Head to Monday.com, the first work platform.
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Silvana Hanale
You'Ll love to use.
- [48:35]
Scott Wapner
Football season is back.
- [48:37]
Josh Brown
Sports business expert Mike Ozanian breaks down the latest numbers. The biggest and most profitable sports league.
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Scott Wapner
In the the world.
- [48:44]
Josh Brown
Exclusive NFL team valuations. September 4th CNBC.
- [49:05]
Scott Wapner
We're back with Altimeter's Brad Gerstner. Josh Brown, you have a question for Josh, for Brad?
- [49:09]
Josh Brown
I do. Brad, I'm not sure if you weighed in on this on, on a podcast or anything, but I haven't heard your thoughts on the revelation that people inside Apple were kicking the tires at Perplexity and some of the other LLM providers and AI companies. What's your opinion on the build it versus buy it debate around Apple? I feel like for 20, 25 billion they should just buy buy it just given how much cash they have and given what the narrative is on their lack of execution in this area. But what would you, would you advise Tim Cook if he called you and asked your opinion?
- [49:47]
Brad Gerstner
Well, you know, I love Perplexity. I think it's a good product. However, I'm not sure that it gets Apple the solution they need on the front. Right. If you really think about where Apple's advantage likely sits, Josh. Right. It's on the edge. So they need to develop really lightweight small models. And now we're seeing this on the open source side. Right. OpenAI just released a super powerful small model. I'm not sure that Apple even needs to own the model, but what they need to do is have a deeply threaded partnership with somebody like OpenAI or Gemini, with a very small model that sits on the edge that can give us a super powered Siri. What Siri always should have been right in 2025. I have to say, Siri's kind of, you know, it's garbage. It could be 100x, it could be 100x better and, but they need to have a small model that doesn't drain your battery. Remember, everybody says, oh, why don't they have this on the phone? Well, the problem is, right, these models are power hogs and the second they put one of those on the phone and your battery drains in an hour, people will stop by on the phone. So it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a fine needle to thread. They're working hard on it. I think they'll have those things. I don't think it needs to be proprietary and you know, and the Apple brand is strong enough to stand on its own. I don't think they need to own another brand. Now. Maybe if they bought Open Air in the early days, that would have been a different story. But the fact is I think they're making, I think they're making good progress. You know, Apple is not, is not one to go make big splashy access acquisitions. So I would say stay tuned to the open source and, you know, small model territory when it comes to upgrading Siri.
- [51:28]
Scott Wapner
And we know a good headline when we see one.
- [51:31]
Brad Gerstner
Wow. I love fire up my, Fire up my friends at Apple. Thanks guys.
- [51:36]
Josh Brown
Do you think we'll get that though?
- [51:38]
Scott Wapner
Do you think you break it, you own it? That's what they say.
- [51:40]
Josh Brown
Do you think the September event will include something material on the AI frame front on iOS devices?
- [51:49]
Brad Gerstner
I don't think my own understanding is that they're still working on all this. I don't think it's an easy solution, to be perfectly honest. Josh, you know, these models are still too power hungry. But I expect that we're going to get a lot of updates as to the roadmap and I think the roadmap, you know, just to provide the other side of that nice headline you guys are showing. I think that Siri, the fact that everybody in the world already knows the brand Siri and we already know the brand Apple just shows you how easy it would be to flip that into something that actually worked. And I know because I use advanced voice mode on OpenAI. I know how good it can be. And so I imagine a deprecated smaller model sitting on the edge running Siri, etc. Locally, I think that's probably not that far off, maybe a year off, etc. And when you get it, you're going to be, you know, people will quickly forget how bad it was.
- [52:39]
Scott Wapner
Let me ask you a question about, as I alluded to in the tease, this idea of AI potentially killing in quotes software, Snowflake Blowout New high Mongo Blowout. Stock's done great for, for every Snowflake and Mongo, there's a salesforce in Adobe. Not Apples to Apples comparisons obviously, but you get the point. Some software companies managing this well, some seem to be left behind. What's happening here?
- [53:14]
Brad Gerstner
Well, first, you know, you're right. A lot of credit goes to David Egeria and Shreedar at Snowflake for the work that they're doing and you know, in running those businesses and they're adapting to the AI landscape incredibly well. I put data number three category. Yeah, Snowflake, yeah, listen, and we, you know, we're also big investors in databricks and that company just raised a new round at over $100 billion accelerating scale. That, that valuation by the way, is higher than Snowflake in the private markets. And so, but look at the quarter. Snowflake just delivered $4.2 billion, you know, in revenue, 32% growth in the, in the quarter, 25% free cash flow margins for the year. I mean that is a, you know, a fast growing high margin business. And the question is why? Why are databricks, Mongo and Snowflake standing out when some of these application software companies seem to be struggling? Because you can't run AI without data. Data is the oil that runs the AI engine. And the big question was, were these guys going to accelerate? And I think people were asking a little bit the wrong question. They were asking Sridhar and Dave, are you going to run models on your stack? Right. Are you guys going to have new AI products that are going to run on your stack? The right question, it turns out was will your core business accelerate as a result of all these AI companies needing to capture all this data? That's what's leading to the core acceleration. The Fortune 500, the Global 2000 realized they have to get their data estate in order to. And these are the leading companies that are doing that for them. Whether data lakes or SQL databases or all the other products around data engineering that come together to give the foo, right, the corporate foo that sits in a governed estate to these models to give CEOs the answers that they're looking for. So the nice thing about what the acceleration you're seeing in these businesses is, I think it's durable acceleration. I think Snowflake could grow over 30% for the entire year, next year and the year after that. So over the last three years, these companies have been rebased. And then we did a pod last year. Is software dead? That's what everybody was saying. And so all these companies were pretty bombed out. I think what this quarter, when we look back at it, it will mark the turning point of the AI winners in software.
- [55:34]
Scott Wapner
I've got three minutes left in our show and I have a really good question from Joe and I want wanted him to ask it to you. Hey, Brad.
- [55:42]
Josh Brown
So Palantir, let's talk about it real quick. I do not believe that you own it. I wonder why you do not.
- [55:48]
Brad Gerstner
You know, Palantir, I've known those guys since I think 2005, Joe. And if you're in the venture capital business for a long time, you make some big mistakes. And Palantir was one of mine, you know, and we never thought the reason we didn't own it, I'll put us in. The dumb consensus was we looked at all the forward deployed engineers and we said, hey, that looks like more of a services company than a software product company. And boy were we wrong. And Alex Karp and the team and what they built there and the need for forward deployed engineering. You know, the irony of all ironies is it turns out every software company in Silicon Valley, including OpenAI and Palantir, et cetera, they're all scrambling to hire people from Palantir to build out their own forward deployed engineering teams. So a few years ago that was known as a scratch service in the software business. And that was kind of taboo because services revenue were lower margin, not as sticky, not as durable, we're not as recurring. But today everybody understands that's the way to unlock these big AI workloads. So hats off to those guys. I would say today it's just a matter of valuation, but we're going to get our shots. We work with those guys on a lot of the stuff on, on the venture side of our business. We're big fans of the business and you know, in due course it surprised.
- [57:00]
Scott Wapner
A lot of people, obviously that that stock chart is a. Wow. There's really no other, no other two ways about it. Brad, we got to run. We, we just did near 39, 29 minutes or so. I so much appreciate your time. It's great to have your perspective on all things tech, but especially on the back of Nvidia earnings. We'll see you soon.
- [57:20]
Brad Gerstner
Great seeing you guys. Talk soon.
- [57:21]
Scott Wapner
Get an update next time too, of course, on Invest America after that big event at the White House a couple of months or a month or so ago. Brad Gerstner, I should tell you. Coming up too, on closing bell today, we've got Ed Yard, Denny, Stacey Raskin, the chip analyst. We get his first reaction to those Nvidia numbers. And the retail legend Mickey Drexler is going to be here too. So it's a big week for retail. Brian, what do you Got?
- [57:45]
Silvana Hanale
Final trade KKR, the stock sold off about 10% after earnings. Strong growth. I think it's good, a good entry point here.
- [57:53]
Scott Wapner
Surround Schlumberger Oil services. Revenue is going to increase. The stock is so out of favor. I think this is a good buck. Joti bunch of financials making 52 week highs today. Synchrony financials one I really like. I mean that's been a trend of late, hasn't it? I mean, Golden State, best stocks in.
- [58:09]
Josh Brown
The market, player to synchrony. It's on there.
- [58:12]
Scott Wapner
Oh, you had a new one today too, which was not a new one. You want to talk about interactive brokers? That's one.
- [58:16]
Josh Brown
Interactive brokers which we, we, we highlight in the 50s is now in the 60s, crushed earnings and was added to the s and P500. I think that thing is breaking out and we're still keeping it on the list.
- [58:29]
Scott Wapner
And you're kind of defending crowdstrike as your final trade.
- [58:32]
Josh Brown
Yeah, don't really need to. Unbelievable report. Best CEO in the space and staying long. I think it's amazing long term hold.
- [58:40]
Brad Gerstner
All right.
- [58:40]
Scott Wapner
An adventurous show to say the least. I'll see on closing bell. The exchange begins now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [58:57]
Silvana Hanale
All opinions expressed by the halftime report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal.
- [59:04]
Scott Wapner
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- [59:06]
Brad Gerstner
Have been previously disseminated by them on.
- [59:07]
Silvana Hanale
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- [59:10]
Scott Wapner
You should not treat any opinion expressed.
- [59:12]
Silvana Hanale
On this podcast as a specific inducement.
- [59:14]
Scott Wapner
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- [59:16]
Silvana Hanale
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- [59:39]
Josh Brown
Sports business expert Mike Ozanian breaks down the latest numbers. The biggest and most profitable sports league in the world. Exclusive NFL team valuations, September 4th CNBC.