Podcast Summary: CNBC Halftime Report – Reaction to the DOJ Probe of Fed Chair Powell

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Amy Raskin, Steve Weiss, Bryn Talkington, Dom Chu, Eamon Javers (White House), Bill Baruch, John Van Eck (ETF Edge)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the breaking news of a Department of Justice (DOJ) criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and its implications for financial markets. The investment committee discusses market reactions, the future of Fed independence, and how these developments fit amidst a record-setting rally. The show also covers a flurry of related stories: President Trump’s rumored move to replace Powell, a credit card interest rate cap proposal, ongoing geopolitical risks (Venezuela, Iran), the Apple-Google Gemini AI partnership, commodities, bank earnings, trading moves, and more.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Response to the DOJ Probe of Fed Chair Powell

• Initial Market Reaction: Markets opened negative but quickly recovered; buying seen especially in small caps and semiconductors.
  • Joe Terranova (02:04): “It was a derivative trade...The bond market has remained calm. Overseas markets have remained calm.”
• Wall Street Perspective: Consensus among major investment banks that the probe will not have a major or lasting impact.
  • Amy Raskin (03:20): "Kind of like everything else...the market has been just looking through them."
• Cautions on Market Complacency:
  • Steve Weiss (03:46): “The market...is unwilling to take a stand on negative events and it's very optimistic...To me that's a cautionary sign.”
  • Scott Wapner (04:34): "The good...just outweighs any of this type of stuff...just far more powerful than any of this other stuff."
• Risk Assessment: Discussion on whether the collective weight of economic and political 'one-off' risks could eventually become meaningful.
  • Steve Weiss (05:18): "The bears are coming to a gunfight with a knife...A glass half full market."

2. Fed Independence & Political Overreach

• Sacrosanct Independence: Panelists stress the traditional independence of the Fed and how recent events challenge that norm.
  • Scott Wapner (07:35): "Fed independence has always been viewed as so sacrosanct..."
• Policy and Market Expectation: Market resilience is attributed, in part, to anticipated rate cuts and ongoing monetary stimulus.
  • Joe Terranova (08:17): “Since Wednesday, monetary policy has gotten easier…because the President went out and announced, Fannie and Freddie, I want you to go buy $200 billion worth of mortgage bonds.”
• Hedging for Risk:
  • Joe Terranova (08:54): “The hedge really right now is in the precious metals market. If you're troubled about all of this, you're out there, you're buying gold, you're buying silver...”

Notable Quote:

"This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences...It has no place in the United States, whose greatest strength is the rule of law."
— Joint statement by Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Rubin (via Eamon Javers, 10:45)

Political Context:

• DOJ investigation is run by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, a Trump ally.
• President Trump claims ignorance of the probe, but associates (FHFA head Bill Pulte) had previously pressed for Powell’s investigation.
  • Eamon Javers (12:08): "This president expects the DOJ to do what he wants it to do...We're looking at an effort that would end up putting the Fed chair in jail if it's successful."

3. Rate Cuts, Administration Policy, and Market Positioning

• Easing policies drive investor confidence in the face of political turmoil.
• Precious metals (gold, silver) see gains as hedge vehicles.
  • Steve Weiss (09:41): "Gold is because...people that were hanging onto the dream of bitcoin...have seen lie pockets put to that narrative. So you've had those go into gold as well."
• Reference to speculative parallels with the late 1920s.
  • Steve Weiss (10:00): “There are definitely, definitely similarities...it was a highly, highly speculative investing environment that led to the crash.”

4. Potential Fed Chair Replacement: Rick Reeder’s Interview

• Scott Wapner (13:12): "The president will interview Blackrock's Rick Reeder for the position of Fed chair this coming Thursday.”

5. White House Interventions & Regulation: Credit Cards, Energy Policy

• Credit Card Interest Cap Proposal:
  • Cap at 10% proposed by President Trump.
  • Stock reactions: major credit card names down, Synchony Financial notably off ~8%.
  • Joe Terranova (14:29): “If you cap it at 10%, we all understand it is going to be troubling...I'd rather hear what happens with earnings in the next 10 days.”
  • Amy Raskin (15:30): "This is all governed by state law. So there's, I'm not sure that this could actually be put into place."
• Corporate Interference (Exxon Example):
  • Threats to bar Exxon from Venezuelan business after executive's public comments.
  • Concern over administration interference in corporate strategy and impact on investment decisions.
  • Bryn Talkington (17:53): "Obviously President Trump tells us what he's feeling and how he's thinking. We get like play by plays on True Social."
  • Amy Raskin (18:31): "You can look at it both ways...I think there's both sides from a, from a long and a short side that you can think of as you're investing in these individual names."

6. Bank Earnings Season Preview

• General optimism about money center banks, with the exception of lagging names like JPM.
  • Joe Terranova (20:02): “Trading revenue to be very strong...there really needs to be something particularly negative for me to reconsider my positioning.”
  • Amy Raskin (20:43): “We trimmed these at the end of last year...we own more ex US banks than we do US Banks now...those stocks have been phenomenal.”

7. Apple-Google AI Partnership

• Apple announces selection of Google’s Gemini model to power Siri and Apple Intelligence.
  • Dom Chu (22:19): “Those Apple AI foundational models...are now going to be based on Google's Gemini product. Gemini is effectively going to be powering Apple intelligence and that new AI Siri update…”
  • Apple’s approach contrasts with previous attempts to integrate OpenAI/ChatGPT.
  • Key questions unresolved about financial terms between Apple & Google.
  • Steve Weiss (24:54): “Apple could have gone anywhere...and they chose Alphabet...I'm surprised in this kind of market momentum, Alphabet's not up more, and Apple’s not up more.”
  • Both stocks held by every panelist.

8. Portfolio Moves — Bill Baruch’s Trades (27:45 ff)

• Trims IJR (small cap ETF) due to relative underperformance and moderating rate cut expectations.
• Adds Materials ETF (IYM) seeing momentum in the sector, especially with gold/silver and chemicals.
• Buys back Tesla after a prior sale, citing momentum and technical strength.
  • Bill Baruch (30:06): "This is one of the greatest momentum stocks...I think we're in a risk on environment. I think you need to own names that are going to help stoke this breakout in the S&P 500 and I think Tesla looks phenomenal for doing that right now."
• Sells McDonald’s and Workday to free up cash for higher potential plays; concerned about Workday’s technical setup.
  • Bill Baruch (32:13): "Workday has not done what we've expected...capital is better put somewhere else and that's what we use to buy Tesla."

9. ETF Edge: Energy and New Power Paradigm

• Dom Chu and John Van Eck discuss energy ETFs and electricity’s new frontiers, including bitcoin miners and oil majors adapting to power demands.
  • John Van Eck (36:09): "Look for ETFs that are leveraged into the electricity trade...companies like Chevron are trying to add to the quantity of electricity supply."

10. Calls of the Day (Highlights)

• Albemarle (ALB): Scotiabank upgrades target to $200 (from $85).
  • Bryn Talkington (39:16): “He's a little late to that party...The lithium market was in a huge glut. We have a supply-demand more balanced right here...these are very cyclical.”
• Newmont (NEM): Goldman Sachs raises target to $123.90.
  • Joe Terranova (40:48): “It’s about the commodity trade...Silver really making a parabolic move...I think 2026 is going to be a year about commodities and a year about a lot of these commodity names.”
• Freeport McMoRan (FCX): Citi raises target from $48 to $67.
  • Bryn Talkington (41:51): “Copper has so many use cases...this probably goes higher.”
• Natera (NTRA): Canaccord reiterates Buy, $285 target.
  • Amy Raskin (42:28): “It absolutely owns the diagnostic MRD space...Great long term play, cash flow positive.”

11. Market Sentiment & Closing Observations

• Markets remain resilient, driven by growth optimism and cyclical enthusiasm, with “job-jawing” and regulatory maneuvers affecting only localized stocks/sectors, not the broad market (Santoli’s Midday Word, 42:50).
  • Mike Santoli (43:35): “The credit card stuff is hitting those stocks...but the bond market was not going to get alarmed...the market wasn't going to rush to a point where it felt like it had to panic.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fed probe and independence:

  • Steve Weiss (05:18): “The bears are coming to a gunfight with a knife.”
  • Amy Raskin (03:20): “For the most part, the market has been just looking through them. And I think that continues because who knows what's really going to happen?”
  • Eamon Javers (12:08): “This president expects the DOJ to do what he wants it to do...We're looking at an effort that would end up putting the Fed chair in jail if it's successful.”

• On investor sentiment:

  • Joe Terranova (08:54): “If you're troubled about all of this, you're out there, you're buying gold, you're buying silver, which is up another 8% today. And guess what, you're able to hedge and get paid on it.”
  • Steve Weiss (10:00): “There are definitely, definitely similarities [to 1929]...it was a highly, highly speculative investing environment that led to the crash.”

• Commodity optimism:

  • Joe Terranova (41:17): “I actually think that's actually going to need to be raised into the upper 70s close to 80 because I think 2026 is going to be a year about commodities and a year about a lot of these commodity names.”

• Cyclical focus:

  • Amy Raskin (21:20): “Stocks are still much cheaper and there's still more growth. I still don't think positioning has shifted.”
  • Bryn Talkington (41:51): “Copper has so many use cases and after this long term base...I think this probably goes higher.”

Important Timestamps

• Markets open, initial reaction to DOJ probe – [01:55]
• Investment committee: probe, market optimism vs. risk – [02:04] to [07:35]
• Fed independence & hedging with gold – [07:35] to [10:28]
• Eamon Javers reports from White House: probe background, political context – [10:45]
• President Trump’s possible Powell replacement, credit card interest rate story – [13:12]
• Interference in corporate affairs (Exxon, energy sector) – [16:34]
• Discussion on bank earnings, ex-US vs. US banks performance – [20:02]
• Apple/Google Gemini AI deal explained – [22:00]
• Panel reaction to AI news – [24:54]
• Bill Baruch trade moves (Tesla, materials, software) – [27:45]
• ETF Edge with John Van Eck on energy & electricity ETFs – [35:37]
• Calls of the Day (Albemarle, Newmont, FCX, Natera) – [39:16]
• Mike Santoli’s market commentary – [42:50]
• Final trades – [46:23]

Final Trades (46:23)

• Bryn Talkington: Capital One – “Overdone, low probability anything gets done, Richard Fairbank is a rock star. 50% and 30% revenue and earnings growth this month when they report.”
• Steve Weiss: UnitedHealth – “Down on Senate news—opportunity to buy.”
• Amy Raskin: Ames General – “Down on JP Morgan news, like it long term, in recovery.”
• Joe Terranova: Ali Baba – “Up 10% since September; use a 148 stop.”

Summary

This episode is a high-tempo, insider tour of how seasoned Wall Street professionals assess headline shocks, interpret political uncertainty, make tactical portfolio adjustments, and root their decisions in both technicals and macro fundamentals. The insight is clear: while political storms and regulatory shake-ups create pockets of risk, the market's focus remains on earnings, growth, and monetary conditions—with hedges appearing where uncertainty lingers. Panelists bring a healthy skepticism, noting the risks of over-optimism, yet acknowledge that, for now, the trend remains their friend.

For listeners wanting the pulse of markets in the face of institutional upheaval, this is required listening—equal parts breaking news, skepticism, tactical trade talk, and big-picture perspective.