
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate their strategies when stocks are at record highs. Plus, they share their latest portfolio moves. And later, the desk debates the best long and short ideas for Q4. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Edward Jones Narrator
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. EDWARD Jones Member, sipc the heaviest metal.
Scott Wapner
Credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx, the new power move. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, another record high for stocks ahead of a very big week for your money. As Carl was just talking about, we're trading all of that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson and Rob Seechin. We will check the markets here, show you exactly where we are because we might close above 47,000 for the first time ever on the Dow Jones Industrial Average today. We do have that very big week looming. Let's show you what's going on. We have the busiest week of earnings season coming up. You know about the mega caps. Five of the seven are reporting. Jensen Huang gives a keynote on Tuesday. The Fed decision is on Wednesday. The meeting between the Presidents Xi and President Trump, of course, on Thursday. So we've got a lot to look forward to. Weiss, I think it's interesting that this market looks at CPI cooler. It's convinced the Fed's going to be engaged and highly. So it has a ticket to cut and a ticket to cut multiple times. Your move the other day of either trimming or selling out of Alphabet, as you expressed it was in part as you said, to take down your exposure a little bit. This market doesn't seem like it wants to go down.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. And I should have been clear, take down my exposure in, in the assets that basically all have the same end game, which is cloud, which is AI. So I've got large positions and I haven't sold all of the Alphabet yet. I'm I'm probably going to sell it into the earnings and wait for more of a run. So I'm concerned about, about, you know, about search. But I've got large positions in Microsoft, in Metta, in Taiwan, semi, not as large a position anymore in Netflix, which is separate. And they're all playing the same things. They all trade alike. I don't need that exposure.
Scott Wapner
But you were a little bit cautious the other day in a store and I still am, yeah. Why so.
Steve Weiss
Well, I just think that, that this point, the Fed cut is in the market. A couple of Fed cuts are in the market.
Scott Wapner
Is it. How is that possible given the move today?
Steve Weiss
Well, we'll see when they actually do it. I think today was the answer is. Scott, these moves perplex me because you discount the news once, which got us to the level before today, then you discount the news again when you get news like today, which it was better than expectations, frankly. But 3% inflation is still way above the Fed target. But this continues to be a half full market. But the risk is in some of those names. Not long term risk, but valuation risk, price risk in some of those names. I have. So I have been cutting back. So I have more cash than I've had before, but still it's about 3, 4% cash position. So it's not.
Scott Wapner
All right, who wants the other side of that? Go ahead.
Rob Seechin
Yeah, I think valuations are a tough timing tool. I think Steve would agree with that. I think we have rate cuts, we have meetings, in meetings with Xi next week. We have earnings that have come in positive. We have earnings revisions that are headed higher. We have positioning that has moved back decidedly to neutral or slightly under. And so from our lens, the chase is on until the end of the year. You know, we have a lot of liquidity in the markets. You're looking at cash building, you're looking at positioning in gold building, which could arguably be a catalyst, given the performance of gold of late, to, to get investors back engaged in traditional equities. And so while I think Steve's right to be mindful of valuation, I think there's other things that are happening right now that are pressing the market higher.
Scott Wapner
I mean, the market doesn't seem to care at all, you know, President Trump's tariff whims or anything, because the economy is good, earnings are good.
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
And the Fed's going to be great. The Fed's going to cut a bunch.
Jim Leventhal
Right.
Steve Weiss
So just so I'm clear, I'm not bearish. Right. I'm repositioning. So we'll talk about a move I made before.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, we have a lot of moves to get today.
Steve Weiss
Well, and, and that's why I've raised some cash, because I want to diversify the portfolio, number one, as I did with CAT earlier this year, which has worked out about 40% and looking to do that further when I can go bargain hunting. So that's why I want to have the cash. I don't want to have to sell a particular point in time. And I am concerned about how Alphabet search.
Scott Wapner
I mean, it's funny, those who were looking for a pullback, you know, you had private credit bubble up and people got a little bearish around that and other issues that were out there. What's going on between the US And China, people got a little bearish about that. And then here we are at new record highs. The market seems to brush it off. Those who are looking to find bargains or have an opportunity to buy lower haven't really had the opportunity unless they were as nimble as nimble could ever be.
Jim Leventhal
You can't fight this. I mean, I hate the trite sayings that I've been saying for the past couple of weeks, like don't fight the Fed, don't fight the trend. You just got to believe in it. Look at the price action. And by the way, Steve, I understand and agree with your perplexity, to use that word that you used. I'm just simply observing that anytime the market goes down, it doesn't even get 2% down off the high before it gets bought. And I'm not justifying it. I'm saying that's what what's happening. If I try to explain it, what I say is there's a lot of cash on the side.
Scott Wapner
You don't have to feel bad to justify me, not to put it.
Jim Leventhal
No, the reason I'm doing that is because I understand where Steve's coming from. There is, you look at this and you do say, isn't this already priced into the market? But that sort of analysis, the analysis that we all like to do, just doesn't matter. This is a trend is your friend sort of market. And you see it in how much cash comes into the market on the slightest dip, whether it's retail and money market funds, whether it's professional money managers trying to catch up to the benchmark, it just is what it is. Another trite saying. Now there is justification. And Rob said it, with rate cuts coming, deregulation, and you know, know what? You know, if you do get a China US trade deal, we Go higher on it. That's just where we are. We'll worry about this in January, but right now the trend is your friend.
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
Kevin Simpson
Allow me to remove the perplexity because you're asking why is the stock market up today if we've already baked this in And I think we baked in a rate cut for sure next week, but today gives a green light for another cut in December and well to your point, Scott, more cuts next year. I'll make the case that this could be the last three handle we see on cpi. I think inflation could be coming down even lower. And this is all the reason why we're seeing the move today. Plus next week we get all these earnings reports, especially with the Mag 7. I just think that there's so much enthusiasm behind this market today specifically for good reason.
Scott Wapner
There are the 3%, the new 2%.
Rob Seechin
Well, I'm going to tell you, going.
Scott Wapner
To prohibit the Fed from going.
Rob Seechin
Shelter is a very important component. That's what you saw today. You said goods inflation, but shelter deflation, Shelter makes up a disproportionate portion of the CPI and it's going to be in a downward trend for a while and then you have interest rates coming lower which is going to spur building activity, which should also ultimately be from a price standpoint, deflationary, even though it will stimulate economic activity. And so I think the inflation story, I don't want to say it's dead, but it's least put behind us for a while because the tariffs aren't hitting the key goods like gasoline prices because they're exempt from things like that. And so what ends up happening is goods inflation is, is, is really just hitting the high end of the market which can completely tolerate it because they own the Nvidia's, they own everything that matters. So they're ignoring it in, in the, in the consumer economy which really reacts to rents. Right. And gas prices. You're seeing them not react to it either. And so it gets back to this, this situation where you can continue to have this momentum.
Scott Wapner
Let's get, let's get to right. We look ahead to what's coming next week. I just want to highlight Apple 6 bucks away from 4 trillion in market cap. So the stock had made a run and then it had pulled back a bit, but it's ramping again and it has a tendency to ramp into its earnings print as all of you know. Right. The prints next next Thursday afternoon. So $6 or so away from $4 trillion in market cap for Apple. We reported CNBC they begin shipping American made AI servers from Texas. It's an interesting story, Kev. You can have the first crack at Apple ahead of the earnings report.
Kevin Simpson
Well, unlike Google which you talked about before and Alphabet I think the earnings for Apple sometimes is a little bit of a disappointment where we run up into it and then we sell the news. That wouldn't surprise me here. So maybe I wouldn't be buying ahead of the print. But if you see any pullback in Apple it's an opportunity to be in the name. The super cycle for iPhones isn't the 17, it's the 18.
Scott Wapner
Yeah but the 17 is already doing better than still waiting a week. Thought that it thought that it would. I mean the risk is to the upside on iPhone numbers in the quarter.
Kevin Simpson
I think you're spot on. I think you're totally right.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, I think that's the uptake in the phone. You know I'm a little surprised that really didn't offer much new.
Scott Wapner
I mean there was a, there was a lot of pent up. I mean people hadn't done it in a long period of time.
Steve Weiss
I think it was time more than product.
Scott Wapner
Yes. But that's okay because I mean the product is the product. It doesn't need that much additional innovation or whatever. They're going to figure AI out one way or the other. Right. Whether it's organic or they do something and people are betting that it's. If it's that this phone, the next phone, a foldable phone, whatever it is.
Steve Weiss
It'S time and still doesn't cost you anything to buy one.
Jim Leventhal
And just to go, just to go back to where we started in terms of valuation it just doesn't matter. I can look at a 34 times multiple forward on this stock and say that's too rich but it just doesn't matter. Look at that chart right there. That was just up there year to date. It's going higher now. I added to the stock in April during that post liberation day blow off but and I would take some off. This is a stock that for many of us you have a core position and then you trim it. But I'm not going to trim it until it starts coming down and that's probably after earnings as we've all regarded.
Rob Seechin
We all face this problem with names like Apple with names like Microsoft. Right. It is hard to be underweight these names relative to the index. Apple, Apple because of an exceptional leadership team. But also this product refresh cycle and you're looking at we're slightly underweight. Right. Now and it's still a top five holding for us.
Scott Wapner
The problem is, is that it said 33 times, which is historically really rich. And the revenue growth that you're getting is not what it, what it was. So the growth rates come way down and the valuation's gone.
Rob Seechin
That's the whole story right now. That's the tug of war. It's a premium valuation relative to its growth rate. And so what do you do when you've owned it a long time? You have a ton of gains in the name and how do you manage around that? It is not being sold until year end, if at all.
Jim Leventhal
You wait for it to start. Start going down, period. That's the answer to.
Steve Weiss
I don't agree with that. You wait for it to start going down. I think you sell stocks, you know, when, when it's time to sell, not when they're turning negative, because then you're catching a falling knife.
Jim Leventhal
You mean, you mean a stop below where it is now? Right.
Steve Weiss
That's how I look at things. And I don't look at things, you know, relative to the index I'm in. Absolute performance is my metric. But what I'd say is that companies like Apple and I don't own Apple, I've traded it, haven't owned it for a while or met it. If they get ahead of themselves in valuation, it's a short term phenomenon because they ultimately grow into that valuation.
Scott Wapner
Met a top pick today, 900 bucks Stifel. That's reiterated, by the way. Alphabet is at a record high today. 292 is the new target as well. At, at Stifel, everybody owns Alphabet. Is there one that you guys are most optimistic about going into the print? You shake your.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, it's Alphabet.
Scott Wapner
I mean, you're the most optimistic.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I mean, look, this does come down to valuation ultimately, and I see this as the most attractive valuation out there. Steve, I was watching the other day when you said, hey, search looks like it's coming down. It may well be. We're not going to know until we get the earnings and that's going to be a heck of a tell. But I'll tell you what, if the search traffic comes in better than expected on this, on this earnings call, as it did last quarter, this stock is going higher. Higher. It's still trades at a discount to the rest of the Mag 7. And that's because of the questions that you brought up the other day.
Scott Wapner
Probably not much of it. I don't know. What, what's the comparison between Alphabet and Metta in terms of valuation because they got to be close.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah. But if you get it, if you get another two turns, I mean I think it's roughly 25, 26 times forward earnings. You got another two turns on this, it's going to be a 10% higher too.
Scott Wapner
Is that you know like Tony Pascarello.
Jim Leventhal
Goldman 26 right there.
Scott Wapner
That he like others. Yes. See there's. You're basically the same.
Jim Leventhal
No, compared to Apple it's.
Scott Wapner
No, no, I'm talking about Alphabet and Meta.
Jim Leventhal
Okay, sorry.
Scott Wapner
The bias to buy any dips in the cohort itself. That's where he is and that's I think where the, the broader investor is.
Rob Seechin
So. So we're going to buy the interesting. What's interesting about the Mag 7 is there's only two businesses that are going to see earnings acceleration next year. It is Tesla and Microsoft in one of the big questions really remains around. Metta Matter is going to go from 50% growth down to slightly negative or flat next year. From an earnings expectation standpoint, the rationale is they're spending so much money on Capex. These companies have gone from capital light business to capital intensive business and the world has to see if that spending is actually going to drive results. So the canary in the coal mine is, you know, will this ultimately happen now? You know, I've known. Jimmy knows this especially knows I've known Meta since December of 22.
Jim Leventhal
I remember, I remember I gave you a hard time and I apologize.
Rob Seechin
I just like to hear it again sometimes. But anyway, this is the first time that I think we're seeing a real quick question around that, with that deceleration. Right. So how is the rest?
Steve Weiss
We start with mobile and then they spent a lot of money on mobile. Right. Years ago when the stock was in the 30s or 40s, wherever it was and earnings were okay, except in mobile, which is their biggest business now, were punk. So what they do that same dialogue. They spent an awful lot, so you can't really go by that.
Rob Seechin
But still, Steve, you don't remember when they got tattooed for overspending? That's what gave us the buying.
Jim Leventhal
I did.
Rob Seechin
I did.
Steve Weiss
And so the market I think is smarter now. You know, like Gretzky said. I'm not, you know, I'm not. You're going to go to where it is. I'm going to state where the puck's going to be. And if you don't invest in AI right now, which is going to transform everything we do totally three to five, you're making mistakes.
Rob Seechin
My largest holding. You're telling me I'm making a mistake in my largest holding.
Steve Weiss
I'm telling you what I'm telling you. What I'm telling you is your focus on slowing bottom line growth because of Capex is misplaced.
Rob Seechin
I will tell you this. If the market starts to punish these big business was which a possibility I'm not saying it is for overspending and not delivering on Capex you're going to see a virtuous cycle become a not so virtuous cycle like that not this year but you will see and my.
Steve Weiss
Second largest position next to Taiwan semi but if that happens to matter then I will buy more and supersize the position the extra as a trade.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah well before they take all of these guys down which is the hypothesis you just put out there what if they start to choose winners and losers? What if Llama doesn't meet up to the same expectations as Grok or Open?
Rob Seechin
That could happen. I think you great question.
Jim Leventhal
I think that might be happening right now. I mean I'm not the expert expert on this but I read in the news and you know LLAMA just doesn't have the same uptake as Grok or.
Scott Wapner
OpenAI so we should hit the semis to AMD is quite the story. It's, it's a record high today. IBM says key quantum computing algorithm can run on conventional AMD chips. What Kevin is most interesting to me about this story is people talked about this company as being left behind by Nvidia. Not that it was irrelevant but that it just wasn't in the same ballpark. And Lisa Su in the moves that they've made recently. Now you can talk about circular deals here, there and everywhere else and criticize that or raise it as a point of caution but look at the move to start stock is made, it's up 100% year to date. It's up 6% today. If this thing was sleeping or tranquilized for a while, it's up.
Kevin Simpson
I'm as guilty as anyone for being somewhat tepid on AMD. We had a 1.6% position in it and I would have argued we just have it because I haven't gotten around to selling it yet. We own Nvidia, we own Broadcom Avago and we own AMD and the growth port portfolio for diversification sake. And this is one of those examples where diversification pays off if what we're hearing about the quantum chips is accurate. I mean that's a game changer for all of these companies. You're seeing intel which more so left for dead than any stock I can remember up today. And amd on sympathy with that. But here is a situation where we own all three. All three have had some circular deals as you mentioned. They it's a lot different than what we saw in the late 90s or at least the way I remember it. But this is a case for owning more than just one position in any one sec.
Scott Wapner
You see like a sideways move that this stock had made. It was, was a nothing. People always talked about Nvidia and Broadcom as being the two best AI chip plays. You've heard less about Broadcom lately and more about amd which is why the stock chart looks the way it does.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah but there's. And the reason that that stock chart goes vertical is open air. Right. And we saw the same thing with, with Broadcom and a few other Oracle. You know that's where this comes home to roost if you ask me. And the rhetorical question Rob that you asked a second ago about what happens when the whole world says maybe this spending isn't worth it. I mean open AI is the engine of this whole ecosystem. So they better be raising funds, they better be showing some revenue to to back up the 300 billion that just at Oracle they've promised. But that vertical leap there in amd, that's open air.
Scott Wapner
How about Qualcomm? I mentioned it because you bought more of it. Why did you pick that one to buy more of, Rob?
Rob Seechin
Well it's just one of the most expensive way inexpensive ways to play the semiconductor space. High quality exposure. They're benefiting from connected devices but they're also benefiting from the automobile sector and its not it's only to 14 times forward P. So this is one that's lagged. And who knows maybe they get anointed at some point soon too. That seems to be the way of value has been unlocked for these business.
Scott Wapner
The power names around. I have been really interesting trade this week. They've been pretty volatile. The performance certainly differs depending on. Look at that. I mean does that show volatility or what? It shows some dispersion too in the, in the way that these stocks have acted. Vertive had earnings this week record high today. Weiss, that's you. You've had Constellation and Eaton are up but Nextera Equity and Vistra are down. Bring up some of those too. So you bought G.E. vernova?
Steve Weiss
I did, I did as a new buy. Yeah and that's an example of of what I'm doing with the proceeds from what you know from for example from Alphabet. Now look, it's hard to make the case that a company with this inflated valuation is on the bargain shelf. But I believe it is.
Scott Wapner
Stephanie would agree with you a thousand percent because she's a value investor, she's been in it for a long time. Continues to make the case that in fact it is.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, so. So look you know the target at least that Goldman has is about 750 based upon 30 times EBITDA. If you take a look at the EBITDA growth it's, it's awe inspiring. Revenue growth is growing more than 10%. So I just thought it was a good opportunity to get in because the quarter was a very, very good quarter and I think what's happening as the quarter with Vertiv was a great quarter. So I think what's happening take Vertiv because it's an easy one to talk about. Short interest was maxed out. So I think what happens is, is that there are some games being played here where those with short positions are then coming in and selling more or having others sell more to pressure the stock lower and the market keys off. What that reversal is gets nervous and sells it down. But then the shorts have to come in and cover. So I would say a lot of what you saw the last two days is short coverage. We saw the same phenomena in India even over so, so you have to ignore the games, you have to ignore this short, really short term price action and say hey what is the long term fundamental case?
Scott Wapner
And then you go yeah, that's been a week as I say for that stock. So you have some new buys related to this that we want to get to as well. Vistra. I just mentioned that Rob's been in it for, for a long, long time now it's a new buy for you. Why now?
Kevin Simpson
I mean all of the reasons that Steve just mentioned. We believe USA story in 2027 the American build out. This is a beneficiary of all of these hyper spends talk about. So we're a little late to the game for sure but we saw some weakness. We wanted to add this to the portfolio. We've had Duke Energy for a long time. Traditional we have that EMCOR in there which I think is at 52 week highs today. But this is the stock that you've talked about I think makes a lot of sense.
Rob Seechin
I will tell you we're up 500% in like very short time in this name it and I think it was.
Scott Wapner
Last year's best performer in the S and P. Right.
Rob Seechin
Which helped.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
So, yeah.
Rob Seechin
So it's funny, at the end of the year, we trimmed it. We bought Energy. That ended up being a great buy. Not maybe not such a great trim because Easter continued to move. But it was about proper portfolio sizing, which Steve talked about. But we wanted to stay with the momentum in this space. There is massive power needs. It is not going away. These are ways to play it. And valuation is not going to matter until it does.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. The other moves you have, Kev, you bought Martin Marietta, that's a new one. And Wal Mart too.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I wanted to go as boring as possible since we've had so much fun with these high flying growth momentum stocks. But Martin Marietta, if you think about just staying with that theme, Caterpillar, all of the data, spend, build out, it's stones, it's cement, it's all of the things that are necessary which we believe are going to be incredibly profitable. It's a boring business, but their margins are accelerating.
Scott Wapner
I mean, you did buy more Caterpillar too. But what I think is most interesting is that as I say, the Walmart buy, which is new, you look at it as a growthy name in disguise.
Kevin Simpson
So the catalyst for that was what they came out with, with ChatGPT and the ability to have that kind of online access for consumers to be able to one click spend. We paid a high multiple for Walmart and Costco as investors for some time. I think this continues to validate it. We had had the stock called away, Scott, back about a year ago last November, around $90 a share. Probably should have gotten into it in April. We bought a whole bunch of other names, kind of missed Wal Mart. Here's a situation where we don't want to sit on the sidelines, especially heading into holiday season.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so I meant. Excuse me, I'm sorry I mentioned that you did buy more Caterpillar, which brings me to the industrials, which have been basically flat over the last few months. The sector had been right around new highs. It's just been sort of treading water at that level. I just do that, Rob, to get to your sale of three, the highest level since June of 2021 today. Just a profit taking move.
Rob Seechin
It's a little more than that. You know, we bought it just when Stephanie bought it, likely when Bill Brown took over as the CEO. We were very optimistic about the turnaround. Right now it has a premium valuation relative to its growth rate. We benefited though from that trade. It's up 80%, more than double The S and P since we put it in, that's not long ago. That's like May of last year, I think. And but it's still a cyclical company. And as you're restructuring a business and focused on new initiatives from an R and D perspective, you're investing in that business is going to hurt profitability right in the short run. And so we're just taking that money. We moved it into Qualcomm, we moved it into AbbVie, which we're going to talk about later in the show. And you know, those are the areas that we think have a little more promise right now from this price point.
Scott Wapner
Let's do one more move before we take a break. And it's been in areas I said at the very beginning of the show, which is, you know, hung over the market a little bit. Obviously the private credit, private equity alternative managers, which have had a pretty decent bounce back this week. Apollo and Aries are up nicely. Blackstone obviously had had earnings yesterday. You bought Apollo.
Jim Leventhal
I did buy Apollo. I followed this stock for a long time. Now it's still off 17% over the last three months on exactly the concerns that you raised, Scott. But so far it really looks like those subprime auto bankruptcies are not systemic. And you can see that in high yield spreads, you can see that in credit default swaps, you can see it in the recovery of regional banks. So now you've got an Apollo, a stock that's trading at roughly 14 times earnings. A couple of really important things here. There's a lot of dry powder with which Apollo can pounce on any companies that get into trouble. And that's both because of fundraising that they've done and their captive insurance army. Last thing I'll say, and this is more qualitative than anything, but I just coincidentally happen to know a lot of people at Apollo know insider trading, obviously. These are really smart people. When you talk to them, you get the idea that these are the guys who are moving the markets and that are going to benefit on whatever dislocations happen. So great price at which to enter it. And I'm in.
Scott Wapner
All right, we'll take the break and then we have more moves to get to health care. Top performing sector over the past one month. You just heard Rob mention AbbVie, putting some money to work there. There are more moves in that space and we'll trade that and so much more when we come back. Ever spend $200 on a fragrance only to realize you hate it? Micro perfumes fixes that now you can try luxury scents without the luxury price. Pick from real designer fragrances like Dior, Tom Ford and Creed. It's the real deal. Authentic scents starting at just a few bucks. They come in sleek travel sprays, ship fast and there's no subscription required. Why gamble on a full bottle? Go to microperfumes.com podcast for up to 60% off. That's microperfumes.com podcast for up to 60% off.
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Scott Wapner
All right, we're back. We sort of gave this away. The AbbVie move. And I did say health care is the top sector over the past month up seven and a half percent. The IBB, the biotech ETF best month since July of 2024. The XBI fifth straight positive month, best since 2015. So you're just riding the momentum here.
Rob Seechin
Correct. We owned the name. It's not like we didn't own it. We added to it, thought it was pretty attractive. It trades at a very low forward P E. They are a leader in autoimmune and inflammatory. I don't know about you guys, but I ate quite a bit so I believe in that. Skyrizi Rin Vogue. These are two of the largest markets in the pharma industry. We think this is an attractive place to be going forward and will be a beneficiary of some of the analytics that come out of of AI that was the thesis on the biotech space is boy, is any place going to be impacted more than this?
Scott Wapner
Well, not to mention the fact that it was hurt the biotech space by high rates. Yes, these are Rate plays to rate 100% it's like sort of coincides if you, you look as rates start to come down the biotech start to go up. You own this to love this name.
Jim Leventhal
You left out the esthetics portion of this business Rob.
Rob Seechin
Well I don't do.
Jim Leventhal
I'm just, I'm just teasing. It's, it's a minuscule part of the business. But you know as much as we've always talked about how cheap this stock is, it keeps going higher and it's still cheap because it's growing its earnings got a nice dividend yield as you pointed out a broad pipeline and a broad existing product array which is indicative of how good this management is. They have found tuck in acquisitions all along the way the last few years that have really worked out for the not all of them they bought I bought one company that had a blow up in the schizophrenia space but for the most part they make excellent acquisitions still cheap. A great name.
Scott Wapner
Kevin, you bought more Merck. They report earnings next week to America's also an acquisition.
Kevin Simpson
An acquisition story and to your point they're not all going to work out but we've got a backfill where Katruda is going to come off patent soon. The whole world knows that the stock went from the 1/ hundreds down into the seventies started buying it in the seventies. We're enjoying a 4 4% dividend. It's a stock that even now has an amazing dividend just starting to trade up sector has been out of favor for a long time. We like health care, we like biotech and we think it's a place where the rest of the street's going to catch.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Piper Sandler today biotech has a heartbeat. I think they joined just about everybody else saying that this move that we've seen looks legit in these stocks. I'm somewhat surprised that you're not here at all. UnitedHealth I don't really count. You know I'm saying it's a different.
Steve Weiss
Segment of the market. Look the market is the perception is the market is going to be open for funding of biotech companies and with rates coming down because what controls this sector I'm talking about biotech more than anything else are capital flows. So when you have lots of money that's looking for a home. And don't forget this has been the most extended down cycle for biotech stocks that we've ever seen. It never was more than one year and here we're really multi years into it so and then when the market when the capital flows tight in terms of going to new, new companies, IPOs in secondaries, biotech comes down. So right now you're in the capital flow positive side of that equation. So I think continue to move.
Scott Wapner
I mean, you have obviously the biggest downturn. You know, when you had Liberation Day, when everything else turned down, you're like, okay, well, we're going to have tariffs that are this large. These sold down pretty hard for the reasons that we just talked about on the idea that if you're going to have tariffs that big, you're going to have rates that are going to remain elevated too. And then when that story started to change, you look at the chart and that's when it really started to ramp.
Steve Weiss
And there's one more point here, which maybe people get in front of early is that the Trump administration is really embracing AI. The FDA is embracing AI. So if you can use AI with the FDA has no idea what to do with now, I can tell you that from practical experience with them on something that's in front of them now. But if they can get their act together and I, it will accelerate the trials and the approval of drugs. So I just could have such a monster.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so we'll take a quick break. Our team found a note today that we really like. It's a firm out with the best long and short ideas for the remainder of the year. We got some ownership too. We'll kick it around. You probably own some of these names and we'll do that when we come back.
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Rob Seechin
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Jim Leventhal
These are Rembrandts, I'm telling you. These franchises on the Record, all new Saturdays, three Eastern.
Courtney Reagan
COURTNEY we're back on halftime. I'm Courtney Reagan with your CNBC News Update. Homeland Security officials say the driver of a U Haul that reversed toward law enforcement at a Coast Guard base near San Francisco was injured in the subsequent gunfire. DHS says the driver is being held for mental health evaluation. The incident came several hours after protests against federal immigration agents were held in the base. Russian president, President Vladimir Putin's special envoy, Killer Dmitriev, confirmed today he is in the US for meetings with the Trump administration officials. He tells Reuters the visit was planned a while ago, but comes, quote, despite unfriendly steps by Washington. Earlier this week, the US Imposed new sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to bring Putin to the negotiating table to end the war with Ukraine. And a newly resurfaced Pablo Picasso painting that has never been shown to the public is going under the hammer in Paris today. It's expected to sell at auction for just under $10 million. The 1943 piece is believed to depict Picasso's muse and partner, Dora Maher. It's in Paris. I hope they have good security. Scott, back to you.
Scott Wapner
Thank you. This is Courtney Reagan. All right, some calls. Let's do this. One that I highlighted before we went to break. It's Rothschild and Company, Redburn. They're out with their best long and short ideas for the remainder of the year. On the longs, Uber is still stocks up 57% twice year to date. Yeah, they still say it's one of their best longs, one of their best buys for the remainder of the year.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, I agree with that. But you know, the price. I mean, not disappointed in terms of the overall move, but the price action overall last few months, it just bumps up against 100 and falls back. I'd love to see 100 become support, but I'm still there and I see no reason to sell it.
Scott Wapner
Kev.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, well, they had some news today with Nvidia that I think is also very telling, very pro Uber for shareholders. But you're right, we need to see it get and trade above 100.
Scott Wapner
It's funny, that news was put out yesterday by Nvidia about working with Uber on autonomous with a. With a white paper that was, I think, dated back to August. And the original news had come out even many months before, before that. So I don't know how new the news was. It gave Uber an undeniable boost for a minute yesterday in the, in the stock, but it is, as I said, up 57% year to date.
Kevin Simpson
It was new to me. Full disclosure, we had not.
Scott Wapner
Maybe it was new to a lot of people, but it was interesting when you looked inside of it and thought, you know, it was brand new. Maybe. Maybe it actually was not. Toast is on the list. You know, Josh has that Novo Nordisk Chipotle Carnival on the shorts or the sells. We've talked about Adobe a million times on this show. That's, that's on their list.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I don't blame it for being on their list. I'm still sticking with it but I'm not very passionate about it. And by that I mean I'm not adding new money to it. It does look like quite possibly it's forming a bottom here, but it's pretty tenuous. The problem with this stock that I've got to wrestle with is when we get into December this is likely going to be a tax loss selling candidate, meaning it's just going to get mauled into the ground by everybody looking for losses to offset gains. Now I know I said this two months ago, Scott, and I know you're going to jump on me, but it's cool, it's cool. I'm not earnings.
Scott Wapner
Your words speak for themselves. The stock chart says everything that anybody.
Rob Seechin
Needs to think about we got into.
Jim Leventhal
You got another earnings report and pretzel.
Scott Wapner
Yourself as much as you want. That's on you, not me.
Jim Leventhal
I know. This stock operationally has beaten earnings for five years in a row. The estimates are finally starting to reflect that in going up. Famous last words previously said I'm going to give it another earnings report which will come out in early December.
Rob Seechin
We've also been patient for far too long. But it's a company with a discounted valuation and great profitability. I think they might be right in the short run but I'm excited, excited for the shortcoming to get this thing a little bit of a boost. How about in the right direction?
Scott Wapner
How about McDonald's being on this list, Kevin, that shorts or sells?
Kevin Simpson
I mean I think you have to have a lot of moxie if you're going to go against McDonald's here into year end. It just seems like a weird stock.
Rob Seechin
Because everybody likes the Big Mac.
Kevin Simpson
I feel it's the snack rack more so than the Big Mac.
Scott Wapner
I mean it's been such a disappointing stock for years.
Kevin Simpson
It seems to hover around 300. You see people bring in 320, 330 price targets. I always kind of laugh and think if that happened that'd be great. We own it for the stability, we own it for the dividend. I wouldn't be an enthusiastic buyer but I certainly wouldn't be a short seller.
Rob Seechin
Great covered call.
Kevin Simpson
What we do, we do.
Scott Wapner
Would that hold for Pepsi as well, which is on the list?
Kevin Simpson
Same story. I mean the earnings reports for for both Pepsi and Coke were really good coming off of a very low base. But again, whatever the thesis might be in the year end just seems like I wouldn't be betting against these stocks. If you want to sell them, that's fine but the idea of shorting them in the year end seems kind of silly to me.
Scott Wapner
Varusque analytics is on the list too, which is down 14% year to date. That's you.
Rob Seechin
Yes, great recurring revenue, but obviously providing risk management tools to the insurance industry. It trades a little expensive so you know, when you have healthy recurring revenues, high single digit growth rate, I think it can be a great business over time. But markets aren't appreciating names like these right now.
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean it's not just right now. I mean the stocks down.
Rob Seechin
I love you.
Scott Wapner
I love you guys. China trying to twist all around when the chart looks words the word.
Steve Weiss
I mean Jimmy trying to blame you. Yeah, I mean that, that's.
Scott Wapner
He did.
Rob Seechin
This is all your fault.
Scott Wapner
This is not a recent.
Steve Weiss
Why did you tell me?
Scott Wapner
You look at the chart, it, it tells a story.
Rob Seechin
You know if you had a portfolio of all winners, you'd have a correlation of one. Who wants that? That, that would be, that, that wouldn't be the greatest outcome because when, when the car starts heading the other direction, you have some problems.
Scott Wapner
I hear you. All right, we'll come back with Santoli on the other side of this break for his I welcome back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now for his midday word which is trend for sure.
Mike Santoli
You know, reasserting the trend at least for now. Obviously there wasn't a tremendous amount of anxiety built up ahead of the CPI report. You know, yesterday we talked about how market was allowing itself to lift. It didn't seem the stakes as being super high. Now a marginal positive surprise in the numbers just kind of allows the market to relax further. We were talking near the close yesterday how I thought, you know, basically if we get past that as a catalyst, you'll see kind of VIX bleed lower again and market back to the old leadership. That's kind of where we are. I mean you know, in video and Broadcom and Google are not up 2% today because we were a tenth light on core CPI. It's because the market underpinnings have been reasserted. We bent but didn't break with this kind of messy momentum reallocation that we had this this week and last and the week before. You know, so a two month kind of slide step that we've done two week Rather, at this level, it's still hard to fight the idea that the upward bias of the market's going to reassert itself. I do think you have to be concerned about the makings of, of a growth scare, but we don't have enough evidence for that just yet.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, we'll worry about it when we have to. I'll see you in a couple hours, Mike.
Steve Weiss
Thanks.
Scott Wapner
It's Mike Santoli. We'll do the setup next. Big week next week. We laid it all out at the top of the program. And the mega caps are obviously going to dominate. But not the only earnings reports to keep an eye on Visa and MasterCard. Visas on Tuesday, MasterCard's on Thursday. Rob, you own both.
Rob Seechin
Yeah. We saw healthy results from American Express, you know, healthy credit numbers at the banks. I think the environment continues to look solid. Spending. Good, good. So I think these companies will do well.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. There was an initiation too, by a firm this week. Both positive on, on this Verizon. They're mid, mid next week.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I wouldn't be looking too much for, for this as a long position. It's down 11 and a half percent month to date. It's been the worst month since 2018. We own the share because we own the shares for the dividend. $19 expectation, 34 billion. If they hit that, I still don't think the stock will move higher.
Scott Wapner
Agnico Eagle Mines next Wednesday.
Kevin Simpson
I mean, this is the complete opposite story.
Scott Wapner
I bring it up because I want to talk about gold, too, but what do you think?
Kevin Simpson
I mean, it's up. The Stock's up over 100% year to date, but it's not just about the commodity moving higher. I mean, there's also such an incredibly efficient business model there. There was a little bit of a pullback last week. If you didn't own it, you had a chance. We think it's going to be a $66 per share and that should be up 55% year over, over year. Tremendous.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Worst week since May. It's still a double, though, this year. Gold very much in the news, as you know. All right, final trades after this break.
Ted Leoncis
Well, the Lakers just went for 10 billion. They don't own the building, they don't own the network. They don't have a WNBA team, they don't have a hockey team. Yeah. What the good news is that now that private equity sovereign wealth funds have started to come into the business, you can get some liquidity for your partners. There's a lot of action going on. In fact, yesterday's NBA owners meeting was, was shocking when you look at the changeover in ownership, right. We have the Celtics having a big changeover. You have the Lakers contemplating a big changeover. But once private equity comes in, once smart money, if you will, comes in, you have to start acting like you're a real business, that that would be their expectation and then they're going to be looking for an exit.
Scott Wapner
Well, that was part of my conversation with Monumental Sports and Entertainment CEO Ted Leoncis on the soaring valuations of sports team. You can watch the entire interview tomorrow. It's the premiere of CNBC Sport on the Record, 3:00 clock Eastern, of course, right here on CNBC. We're back with Finals next. All right. We're trending right now to close above 47,000 on the Dow for the first time ever. And that's what we'll track right into the end of this week in a couple hours. Jeremy Siegel, Nick Timiros, Wall Street Journal, Ed Yardeni, Cameron Dawson, low Tony, ahead of those big tech earnings next week. So that's a lineup and I hope, I hope you'll join me in a couple of hours. What's your final trade?
Rob Seechin
I like that gal you mentioned by.
Scott Wapner
The final one who works for your firm, New Edge.
Rob Seechin
Yes, her, her big week of earnings. Love Alphabet. Going into it. Cheapest of the mag.
Scott Wapner
Seven. All right. Finally quaffed. Kev, what do you got?
Kevin Simpson
I like Amazon on heading into the earnings, we're expecting a lot out of us and the profits that they're seeing in advertising no longer can be discounted.
Edward Jones Narrator
All right.
Scott Wapner
The farmer crh.
Jim Leventhal
Terrific stock, terrific company. Still pretty much undiscovered.
Scott Wapner
Got some work on the ranch this.
Jim Leventhal
Weekend we may be calling them.
Scott Wapner
All right. All right. Good stuff.
Steve Weiss
Steve Weiss, you're such a dinosaur. That gal, I bet. Look, they just broke the star player out of jail, literally. And I think that's going to help get it up. And it's based here at 110.
Scott Wapner
All right. I'll see you in a couple hours. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Edward Jones Narrator
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. But only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the halftime report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer I've never felt like this before. It's like you just get me. I feel like my true self with you. Does that sound crazy? And it doesn't hurt that you're gorgeous.
Scott Wapner
Okay, that's it.
Edward Jones Narrator
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Date: October 24, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests/Panelists: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Rob Seechin
This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report focuses on a fresh surge to record highs in the equity markets and the strategies top investors are using amid growing optimism over upcoming Fed rate cuts, robust earnings, and a pivotal week for Big Tech ("Mag 7") reports. The panel’s debate centers on whether these market gains are sustainable, which stocks warrant attention as the market pushes new records, and tactical portfolio decisions for both the year-end rally and early 2026.
[00:32 – 07:54]
The Dow is poised to close above 47,000 for the first time amid bullishness over earnings, global leadership meetings, and speculation about rate cuts.
Scott Wapner opens with:
“Another record high for stocks ahead of a very big week for your money... five of the seven [mega-caps] are reporting. Jensen Huang gives a keynote on Tuesday. The Fed decision is on Wednesday. The meeting between Presidents Xi and President Trump on Thursday.”
Weiss’s Position: Taking profits in AI/cloud names (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Taiwan Semi), raising some cash; emphasizes risk of current valuations.
Seechin’s Counter: Agrees valuations are high, but liquidity, earnings, and positioning push the market higher into year-end.
Leventhal: Emphasizes market conviction, notes “anytime the market goes down, it doesn’t even get 2% down off the high before it gets bought.”
Simpson: Sees today’s CPI print as opening door to multiple cuts (even beyond what’s priced in) and possibly further declines in inflation.
“[The market] just doesn’t seem like it wants to go down.” — Scott Wapner ([00:42])
[07:17 – 09:41]
“I think this could be the last three-handle we see on CPI. Inflation could be coming down even lower. This is all the reason why we’re seeing the move today.” — Kevin Simpson ([07:17])
[09:06 – 14:56]
“Companies like Apple... if they get ahead of themselves in valuation, it’s a short-term phenomenon because they ultimately grow into that valuation.” — Steve Weiss ([12:19])
[16:56 – 19:40]
“Look at the move the stock has made. If this thing was sleeping for a while, it’s up.” — Scott Wapner on AMD ([17:54])
[20:06 – 25:03]
"There is massive power needs. It is not going away. These are ways to play it. And valuation is not going to matter until it does." — Rob Seechin on the power sector ([23:01])
[25:53 – 27:12]
[29:22 – 33:39]
"As much as we've always talked about how cheap this stock is, it keeps going higher and it's still cheap because it's growing its earnings." — Jim Leventhal on AbbVie ([30:36])
[36:15 – 41:02]
"You have to have a lot of moxie if you’re going to go against McDonald’s here into year end." — Kevin Simpson ([39:13])
[41:28 – END]
On Market Resilience:
“Anytime the market goes down, it doesn’t even get 2% down off the high before it gets bought.” — Jim Leventhal ([06:04])
On Apple:
“If you see any pullback in Apple, it’s an opportunity to be in the name.” — Kevin Simpson ([09:42])
On Current Valuations:
“I think you sell stocks, you know, when it’s time to sell, not when they’re turning negative, because then you’re catching a falling knife.” — Steve Weiss ([12:06])
On Big Tech Capex:
“If you don’t invest in AI right now, which is going to transform everything we do totally in three to five years, you’re making mistakes.” — Steve Weiss ([15:38])
On Health Care Momentum:
"Healthcare is the top sector over the past month up seven and a half percent... We think this is an attractive place to be going forward and will be a beneficiary of some of the analytics that come out of AI." — Rob Seechin ([29:42])
On Sectors with Momentum:
“There is massive power needs. It is not going away... Valuation is not going to matter until it does.” — Rob Seechin ([23:01])
This episode is a must-listen for investors seeking clarity on how thought leaders are positioning for both record market highs and the event-heavy weeks to come.