Halftime Report: "Resilience and Rotation" – January 15, 2026

Host: Frank Collin (in for Scott Wapner)
Guests/Contributors: Jim Leventhal, Malcolm Etheridge, Bill Baruch, Christina Partsinevelos, Mike Santoli, Pippa Stevens
Main Theme:
A high-energy, real-time discussion among top investors and market analysts as stocks rebound after a two-day selloff. The episode digs into resilience and sector rotation, focusing on bank earnings, the surging semiconductor space, the state of crypto regulation, metals, energy, and tactical portfolio moves.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Financial Sector: Bank Earnings and Credit Card Regulation (01:16–07:53)

• Bank Earnings Reaction:
  The group dissects why banks—despite solid earnings—sold off, then rallied.

  • Jim Leventhal: "The value is there, hence there's a rally today." (02:09)
  • Earnings "generally good, they weren't great...It's not hard to see that some air might come out of the sector, as it did yesterday." (02:09)
  • "Being priced to perfection was part of it...J.P. Morgan missed on a few metrics. Citigroup...had some expense issues...not perfect earnings reports." (02:09)
  • President Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% is seen as political posturing pre-election, unlikely to pass but impacting sentiment, particularly JP Morgan.
    • "Most people don’t think that’s going to come to pass. But it certainly shows that...the President and his administration have his eyes on affordability." (02:09)

• Investment Approaches:

  • Malcolm Etheridge entered Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan for the first time, using the market’s pullback from the credit card cap headlines as an opportunity:
    • "The transaction revenue that gets generated anytime...one of these companies advises or consults on an IPO far outweighs what they're going to earn on credit card interest." (05:46)
    • Adopted a “buy high, sell higher” mindset: "I've had to come around to this Joe Terra Nova idea of buying high and hopefully selling higher." (05:59)
  • Bill Baruch prefers Goldman Sachs (largest portfolio weight), wary about buying more JP Morgan after its weaker-than-expected earnings but sees pullbacks as potential entry points.

2. Crypto Regulation & Coinbase CEO Interview (07:53–13:19)

• Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO, voices strong opposition to the Senate’s crypto market structure bill in a CNBC interview with Emily Wilkins:

  • "We developed this concern that if it went into a markup...some of that base text would have been catastrophic, I think, for the average American consumer." (08:39)
  • Warns bill could 'kill three or four product lines' and argues for a level playing field between banks and crypto: "Consumers should be able to earn 3.8% on their stablecoin rewards." (11:07)
  • Prefers no law to a "bad bill": “Frankly, I'd rather have no bill than a bad bill.” (12:54)

• Crypto Market Sentiment:

  • Bill Baruch: Continues to see Coinbase and Bitcoin as part of a long-term bullish thesis, but is cautious: "We're not leaning into it...but we look at [Bitcoin] as a long-term investment...I think it’s going to play out positively over the next six months." (13:44)

3. Semiconductors Surge: TSMC, ASML, Nvidia, and China Risks (14:34–22:23)

• TSMC Earnings:

  • Christina Partsinevelos: TSMC is “pretty much sold out in 2026 at full capacity.” CapEx rises to a record $56 billion, but CEO is "nervous" about demand materializing:
    • "He used the word nervous...if they don't spend it correctly it'll quote 'be a disaster for TSMC'." (14:59)
  • Strong read-through for key suppliers like Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and especially ASML, whose lithography machines are essential:
    • "ASML has a full monopoly...That’s why you’re seeing their market cap hit $500 billion for the first time ever." (16:14)
  • Year-to-date surge in semiconductor equipment makers is more about memory supply thesis than pure foundry/logic business.

• Nvidia Technicals & Earnings:

  • Bill Baruch notes Nvidia is at a critical technical level:
    • “Nvidia is actually at a really exciting level...If it can move a little bit higher...look out above, we're going to head for a new record high." (19:26)
    • "Resistance at 193.5 and 196 – above those, we could see some solid flows." (20:34)
  • Malcolm Etheridge stresses that Nvidia’s second-half 2026 guidance and chip upgrades are the “make or break” for the stock:
    • "It wouldn’t surprise me if Nvidia stays super rangebound until then because there’s no other real catalyst to get us there." (23:31)

• China as a Semiconductor Wildcard:

  • Risks of China self-sufficiency efforts and selective acceptance of US chips; potential for tension to drive sector volatility.
    • Christina: "Self-sufficiency of China...is the biggest fear, which is why sovereign AI plays such a strong role to offset that weakness." (18:26)
    • "Of course Nvidia is being used as a play...They’re just trying to nitpick and find issues...to use Nvidia as a poster child." (21:21)

4. Portfolio and Sector Moves: Energy, Metals, Defense, & Select Names (26:07–47:12)

Energy (26:07–30:19)

• Bill Baruch sells T-Mobile to focus on energy names:
  • Cheniere (LNG): "This has been bottoming out technically very well...95% of revenue comes from long-term contracts. Energy is very exciting this year." (26:44)
  • Exxon: "It's breaking out...twice the return of the S&P 500 over five years, and crude prices have stunk." (29:08, Jim Leventhal echoing).
  • SLB: Sees upside as Venezuela production recovers.

Metals (38:40–42:23)

• Bill Baruch: Calls a "supercycle" for precious/metals but urges patience; likes silver, gold, and copper for long-term, warns not to chase:
  • "Wheaton Precious Metals: They're going to have more volatility...Silver can get to $130, but not in a straight line." (40:00)
  • "As for copper, it's going to be a very undersupplied market for the foreseeable future. I like this move from Amazon." (41:22)
• Jim Leventhal: Cleveland Cliffs is a play on recovering steel (and industrial activity, e.g., autos, reshoring). "They've taken revenues up tenfold...As we go into 2026, it will be interesting to see if that ‘hair’...gets cut down and we can see the beauty of the underlying business." (41:29)

Defense/Aerospace (45:19–46:11)

• Jim Leventhal: Bullish on Lockheed Martin: "We understand the fundamental reasons why. There are hot wars, hot conflicts all over the globe...this is the one to watch going into 2026." (45:19)
• Bill Baruch: Long Lidos, looking to increase exposure.

Committee Stock Calls (33:18–37:04)

• Digital Realty (DLR):
  • Malcolm: "Probably the safest way to play that [data center] space...long-standing relationships, customers won't walk away just for a delay in powering on a data center." (33:30)
• Netflix:
  • Bill: "It's an ugly chart...I just kind of stay on the side." (34:07)
• CRH (Materials):
  • Jim: "Absolutely crushes the S&P 500...Biggest aggregates company in the world, twice the size of competitors and one-third the valuation." (35:11)
• Spotify:
  • Malcolm: "It's setting up to give a really attractive entry point...the streaming increase in cost...is going to be additive to revenue." (36:03)
  • On Netflix as a Spotify competitor: "If you like Netflix, you should love also Spotify." (36:03)

5. Tactics & Strategy: Sentiment, Rotation, and Technicals (42:55–44:48)

• Mike Santoli’s Midday Word:
  • "People returning to old leadership...a little more of a unified risk on...I do think it's interesting. The banks probably got overdone on the downside yesterday. Sentiment starting to get a little bit frothy." (42:55)
  • "We're building up and paying in advance for a good amount of good news right here..." (43:56)
  • On energy and metals’ rally: "Right now you can take an optimistic slant...It's a reflationary trade globally, not an inflationary one." (44:19)
  • Movie analogy: "Revenge of the Herd." (44:48)

Standout Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Jim Leventhal, on banks:
  "The value is there, hence there's a rally today." (02:09) "It wasn't hard to see that some air might come out of the sector, as it did yesterday." (02:09)

• Malcolm Etheridge, on his bank strategy:
  "The transaction revenue...far outweighs what they're going to earn on credit card interest." (05:46)
  "I've had to come around to this Joe Terra Nova idea of buying high and hopefully selling higher." (05:59)

• Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO):
  "Frankly, I'd rather have no bill than a bad bill." (12:54)
  "Consumers should be able to earn 3.8% on their stablecoin rewards." (11:07)

• Christina Partsinevelos, on TSMC:
  "They're saying that they're pretty much sold out in 2026 at full capacity...but [CEO] is nervous about it...If they don't spend it correctly, it'll be a disaster." (14:59) "ASML is a great example because they have a full monopoly over the [lithography] market..." (16:14)

• Bill Baruch, on Nvidia:
  "If it can move a little bit higher, it goes above the late December high...I think the space is obviously getting a lot of lift. Nvidia—if it gets above 193.5, 196—look out above." (19:26-20:34)

• Mike Santoli, on rotation:
  "It's a reflationary trade globally, not an inflationary one or one that's going to impede economic recovery from here, at least for now." (44:19) "Revenge of the Herd." (44:48)

Time-Indexed Segment Map

• Financials/Banks: 01:16–07:53
• Crypto Legislation & Coinbase: 07:53–13:19
• Semiconductors/TSMC/ASML/Nvidia/China: 14:34–22:23
• Energy & Portfolio Moves: 26:07–30:19
• Metals & Industrials: 38:40–42:23
• Defense/Aerospace: 45:19–46:11
• Stock Calls & Streaming: 33:18–37:04
• Market Sentiment & Strategy (Santoli): 42:55–44:48
• Final Trades: 46:32–47:12

Final Trades & Parting Shots

• Malcolm Etheridge: ServiceNow – "Starts to separate itself from the rest of the software herd." (46:32)
• Bill Baruch: ICE – "Very diversified...breaking north up out of a bear flag pattern." (46:40)
• Jim Leventhal: Apollo Global – "The leader, in my opinion, in privates...I think they're the smartest people in the room...happy to be in Apollo." (46:53)

Tone and Delivery

The mood is brisk, collegial, and analytic—typical for Halftime. The panel balances level-headed sector analysis, tactical trading advice, and a mutual respect for smart risk-taking and long-term conviction holds. Commentary is mixed with jokes/banter (running Citi references, Canada jabs, “Revenge of the Herd”), but the focus is on tactical, actionable insight for active investors watching the rotations, sector leadership, and big news-driving names as 2026 gets underway.

This summary is designed as an efficient, comprehensive overview for listeners or readers who want to track the market pulse and critical debates—without listening live.