Jim Leventhal (2:09)

Well, Frank, I think being priced to perfection was part of it. Obviously there was the news from President Trump on credit cards and limiting it to 10%, which came out late Friday after the market closed. And that actually has some wind behind it by virtue of Senator Warren being involved as well. Most people don't think that's going to come to pass. But it certainly shows that this year, leading into a midterm election, the President and his administration have his eyes on affordability. And to the extent that the financial sector doesn't help out, they've got their eyes on it. Now ultimately you put that together with a sector that had run a lot and it's not just year to date. There were massive outperformance last year from companies like Citigroup, which was in the crosshairs yesterday. And if you look at JP Morgan, that's a stock that's had a five year run. That's just really breathtaking. So there was some price to perfection. However, the earnings reports, generally good, they weren't great, by the way. I mean, J.P. morgan missed on a few metrics. Citigroup, which is a favorite of mine, there were some expense issues. I don't want to overstate it, but it wasn't the greatest quarter. They have a long term turnaround that is still on track. I'm happily owning the shares, but they weren't perfect earnings reports. So you put all that together and it wasn't hard to see that some air might come out of the sector as it did yesterday, but the value is there, Hence there's a rally today.

Frank Collin (3:28)

All right, I want to look at two of these reports today. I know you're kind of going back to yesterday, by the way. You didn't want to overstate about Citi. That's a surprise. You like to talk about Citi.

Jim Leventhal (3:36)

Oh, I forgot, I forgot. That's our running joke. So I should remember that.

Frank Collin (3:39)

But we get to the numbers because what people are here for Morgan Stanley when it came to investment bank, and that was up 47% year over year. Also looking at Goldman equities trading up 25%. Investment banking also up 25%. And I think these reports, I would think Malcolm, they led you to two buys, two of your first time buys of Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan since Morgan Stanley reported today. Why don't we start there?

Malcolm Etheridge (4:00)

Yeah, so I've been champion, championing those three names, calling them the big three for probably a year now. But I haven't actually had an opportunity to own any. And I think the President's proposal for a 10% cap on interest rate on credit cards gave me an artificial selling period to give me an opportunity to start buying shares. So any pullbacks we get going forward, I intend to keep buying there. I think that IPO activity is going to remain strong. We saw basically twice as many IPOs in 2025, as we did in 2024. There's some blockbuster ones that are slated to come this year. And the big three, Morgan Stanley, J.P. morgan and Goldman Sachs, basically participated on every single one of the three of those names, I should say participated on every single blockbuster M and A transaction last year. And I anticipate that's going to continue this year. So as they continue to ring the register, those three banks specifically, I think, don't really. Net interest margin isn't really the metric that matters as much for those three banks specifically. And so regardless of what interest rates do or how banks are positioned to profit from the declining interest rate environment, I think that those three are going to do very well, specifically because of all the M and A transactions, the IPO activity, all that, that's going to happen.

Frank Collin (5:12)

All right, walk me through this trade one time. Because if the catalyst here was the pullback based on the idea of cap and credit cards, well, one has the most exposure to credit cards, JP Morgan Chase. The other one has none. Of course, we know the president's going to be in Davos next week, and maybe surprising to some people, he's going to have a domestic focused speech that he's going to make about affordability, which is we know that credit card caps might be part of it. We also know Jamie Dimon is going to be there. There's potential, at least for. There'd be a lot more rhetoric about credit cards that could impact J.P. morgan. That hypothetically would kind of evade Morgan Stanley. So you're worried about another pullback when it comes to JP Morgan coming up, knowing that we have this big event coming up in Davos?

Malcolm Etheridge (5:46)

Yes. So my point is that the, the transaction revenue that gets generated anytime one of these companies advises or consults on an IPO far outweighs what they're going to earn on credit card interest.

Frank Collin (5:58)

Understood. But that was the entry point.

Malcolm Etheridge (5:59)

Right? Right. And so it gave me an opportunity to buy shares of a company that had no business being down 5% on a headline that realistically probably won't come to fruition, at least not in the way it was proposed. 10% maybe turns into 20 or 25 or 30, where it probably is now. So I just think that it gave me an opportunity to be buying a company that I've had to come around to this Joe Terra Nova idea of buying high and hopefully selling higher, rather than these shares coming in to me, because we saw what Citi did last year and it probably isn't going to create an entry Point anywhere below where it is. All these are selling close to their 52 week highs right now.

Frank Collin (6:35)

Okay.

Malcolm Etheridge (6:35)

You just got to get comfortable buying high right now.

Frank Collin (6:37)

So opportunity not an issue. Bill Root, coming over to you. Your view of the financials right now, what we're hearing from these two companies today and seeing from them as opposed to yesterday when it seemed like everybody was just looking for a reason to sell the banks.

Bill Baruch (6:49)

Well, I think the reason to sell, I mean it is, that's pretty routine. They go get some excitement ahead of earnings. They're the first group to really report. And then there is a, you know, a little bit of a, of a wiggle always after these reports, no matter how good they are. Maybe one or two may avoid that wiggle. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley could, could be those names here this time. Monster report from Goldman Sachs. It's exactly what we want to see. It's our largest name in the financial space. Weight of about three and a quarter, 3.3% in our portfolios. And I may like the idea, but if it hasn't run so much of buying more Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, it worries me a little bit. The, I do agree with you. I think the investment banking income is going to come around. But that under, under reformed estimates it was what, 2.35 billion. They're looking for 2.55 billion. That's, that was a surprise there. It's not the JP Morgan beat that we've become accustomed to. And so you know, I'm taking it for, you know, a mulligan here. It has the credit card rate cap pull down. It had the post earnings pull down. So I'm with you here. I think it can find support here. But I'm not looking to buy more JP Morgan. It's about 2.7 weight in our portfolio.

Frank Collin (7:53)

All right, we got more earnings to talk about, including tsm. Christina Parsempla standing by for that. But first we're going to watch the crypto space. Today, Brian Armstrong from Coinbase. He voiced his opposition to the Senate Banking Committee's draft of the crypto market structure bill or Emily Wilkins is now joined by the CEO of Coinbase and a first on CNBC interview. Emily, take it away.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (8:14)

Hey Frank, thank you so much. And Brian, thank you again so much for joining us on. I know it is a very busy day for you. Obviously in your tweet last night you laid out what your concerns are with the bill. Too many restrictions on rewards, not enough CFTC oversight here. You mentioned issues with the defi space. I won't rehash all of it, but you've been working with lawmakers so closely on this. Why did it all fall apart at the 11th hour?

Brian Armstrong (8:39)

Yeah, well, first off, I just want to say a big thank you to Senator Tim Scott, Senator Lummis, and really all the Banking and Ag Committee and their staff that are just working tirelessly to get this done. And Coinbase and I think the rest of the industry is committed to continue to show up as well to make progress. So, you know, we got to see the draft text on Monday night and about 36 hours later, as our we were looking through it, we started to notice some issues in the bill and we developed this concern that if it went into a markup, the only way to edit some of that base text would have been through an amendment and the amendments had already been submitted. And so we didn't think it was prudent to have it come out of committee with a bunch of these issues in the bill, which would have been catastrophic, I think, for the average American consumer. And so we decided to voice our opinion about the current state of the text and without commenting on procedurally whether the markup should happen or not, I'll defer to the Senate on that. And so I think we've got a chance to do a new draft and hopefully get back into a markup in a few weeks.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (9:36)

So even though you've been meeting with lawmakers for months on this, you were still surprised by some of the things that came out in this draft that was released really Tuesday at midnight, I believe.

Brian Armstrong (9:44)

Yeah, well, this, this bill is hundreds of pages and so many of the issues that we had engaged on were present and great progress have been made. I know, you know, there's many voices that they are trying to engage with to make sure that people's concerns are addressed in a very bipartisan way. But yeah, there were certainly some things which came out which we were surprised by and had issues with.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (10:04)

And what is your sense about what the next step forward are? I know that you've met with lawmakers today, met with lawmakers last night, meeting with the administration later this afternoon. Is something going to get done here and what is the time frame that it needs to get done by?

Brian Armstrong (10:18)

Yeah, well, I think the high level principle here is that we can't really have banks come in and try to kill their competition at the expense of the American consumer. Right. People in America should be able to earn more money on their money. I think stablecoins are an opportunity for banks. They should be able to build Great product lines with this. It's an opportunity for crypto companies. You know, Congress and the laws that get passed, they should really create a level playing field and say this is allowed, this is not allowed. Now all American companies go compete, try to build the best products and services. That's great. What's not great is if the banks can put their thumb on the scale to try to kill some of their competition and they only pay about, I don't know, 14 basis points on the average savings account, consumers should be able to earn 3.8% on their stablecoin rewards. And so we're going to keep fighting for our customers rights and the 52 million Americans who use crypto every day.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (11:07)

What would you say to the argument that banks have put forward that because of the role they play in the economy, the loans that they make, if they do wind up seeing billions of dollars, as some have estimated would happen, going from banks to stablecoin, they say that could have a big impact on the economy. What's your response to that?

Brian Armstrong (11:22)

Yeah, well, banks don't have a monopoly on lending money. Actually, crypto is doing quite well in this area as well. And crypto is a technology to update all parts of the financial system, whether it's lending, capital formation, etc. So I think banks do play an important role in the economy and making these loans. Crypto should be allowed to do similar types of activity. We're not engaged in fractional reserve lending. That's an important point, by the way, because the bank license, what that really allows you to do is fractional reserve. The banks don't have all of your money there. That's why there's so much oversight. And you can have these runs on the bank. Stablecoins have 100% reserve. Right. And they're all, all the assets now post genius are held in this short term US Treasuries. So in my view, it's actually a safer place to store your money. And crypto companies should be allowed to compete and offer loans just, just like banks.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (12:13)

Interesting. I know going back to the timing piece of it, Senator Cynthia Lummis, I asked her if this could be done the next month. She said, look, it might, it might be February, it might be March, could potentially be even later. Is that the timeline that you're seeing play out with what you're seeing in these negotiations?

Brian Armstrong (12:27)

Yeah, well, we're going to keep, you know, pushing for urgency here. I think everyone that we've spoken to has a sense of urgency to keep making progress. So this is a Just the next step in the negotiation. It's causing people to come back to the table, rethink some of these issues, make sure we're signing up to do the right thing for the American consumer and put out legislation we can all be, we can at least live with.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (12:46)

This has been the number one legislative priority for crypto. What is it going to mean if it does not isn't able to fully get done this year?

Brian Armstrong (12:54)

Yeah, well, I would prefer to have a bill get done. I think it creates clarity that allows this industry to get built in America. But frankly, I'd rather have no bill than a bad bill. Right. The current draft text that was shown to us earlier this week, for instance, would kill probably three or four different product lines that we have already in market. And so if this is going to be a giveaway to the banks, I'd rather just stick with genius which is already in law and we're able to operate our business just fine in that environment.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (13:19)

Got it. Brian, thank you so much. Was Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO Frank, back.

Frank Collin (13:24)

To you Wilkins live in D.C. with the CEO of Coinbase. Emily, thank you very much. Bill coming over to you right now looking at Coinbase. Coinbase down about 3%. Looking at crypto more broadly. Bitcoin is down about 1%. Ether down about 1 1/2% again as Coinbase voices their opposition to that bill. You're in on the bitcoin trade. What's your view of the bill and just the crypto market in recent days?

Bill Baruch (13:44)

Yeah, we own, I bet in accounts we own Coinbase as well. Coinbase may not be one of our best positions but you know, we're looking at long term size appropriately. If the idea that I think the stablecoin legislation is a blow here, that, you know, we were looking forward to getting something done soon, I am a believer in the fact that this stablecoin legislation is going to come down the road and it's going to be a tailwind to Coinbase. To Coinbase. You know they do have triple digit earnings growth. I like the name. There's a lot of support that it's trading into right now, 200 to 240. I don't like the price action this year so far, but what I do like about Bitcoin is tremendous volume as it really started bottoming in 85,000 to 90,000. We've seen kind of come out some capitulation type volume. So you know, we're not, we're not leaning into it that where it's a make or break for US but we look at as long term investment and I think it's going to play out positively over the next six months.

Frank Collin (14:34)

Yeah. Again Coinbase shares down just about 3%. I want to go back to earnings now. Another big earnings story outside the financials. It's really Taiwan semi driving the semi space to a new record high. If you look at the SMH or Christina parts and Evolis as promised joining us right now here at post 9, Christina, looking at this report, is it exciting that we saw profit jump by 35% or is it more exciting the fact that this is the company that supplies so many other companies like Nvidia, AMD and Apple the second?

Christina Parts and Evolis (14:59)

That's because they have a view into the future because these customers are spending with tsmc, they're the largest chip contractor in the world and they're saying that they're pretty much sold out in 2026 at full capacity capacity. Their spending Capex has increased to 56 billion just this year which is a record for them. So that is showing that there is demand for the chips. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to see that these two companies are going to see a return on investment. And I say that because the CEO of TSMC was asked on the earnings call is a demand real? And he responded that he is nervous about it. He used the word nervous and that he said that with the $56 billion in CapEx, if they don't spend, spend it correctly it'll quote be a disaster for tsmc. So what he's telling us is that TSMC is growing, gross margins are intact. You know they're going to spend over the next three years all of their customers are spending and building chips. But we still don't know necessarily if that demand turns into future revenue streams for all of these firms.

Frank Collin (15:58)

So I want to ask you a question. So tsm, they supply for Apple, Nvidia, amd, Qualcomm, Broadcom and Amazon, all the big players in there. Is this Apple too? I already mentioned Apple but yes, you're right about Apple. Is there, is there one company that this is a direct read on. Is there one company that gives us more insight as opposed to the other ones?

Christina Parts and Evolis (16:14)

ASML is a great example because they have a full monopoly over the market with their lithography machines. The fact that TSMC is spending so much, that's why you're seeing their market cap hit $500 billion for the first time ever. It's reading well across the semi cap space. And just one more point Some may argue, but you know, semicap equipment companies have really jumped over 15% year to date for many of these names. B of A even in a note today was saying that it's not as crowded as you think because the semi cap names have climbed on the memory narrative, that memory is in short supply, that they haven't really climbed on the fact that the foundry business is still really strong, the logic business is still really strong.

Frank Collin (16:51)

All right, you mentioned, I'm sorry, you mentioned asml. Very quickly we get to you, Jim Malcolm, you own ASML also at a record high today. Your view on the chip trade right now we often talked about Nvidia kind of being dead money over the last couple of months, but obviously we're seeing an acceleration today when it comes to chips.

Malcolm Etheridge (17:04)

Well, I think it does say great things about ASML as a shareholder in the sense that the $56 billion of CapEx that TSM is talking about, more than likely the lion's share of that goes to asml. Right. They're their biggest customer by a long shot. Especially as you hear Jensen Huang talking about now going to mobile, talking about going to autonomous driving as sort of the next frontier for where those chips are going. So it makes perfect sense that they'd have to retool those machines or upgrade those machines to get the smaller nanometer chips that can fit into smaller devices, which bodes well for asml regardless of where those orders come from. So I think that's a great indicator of why the shares popped 6 or 7% so far today.

Jim Leventhal (17:45)

Jimmy, for Christina, one of the risks we were talking about a year ago, we're not talking so much about now is China, at least in my opinion. And I observe that nobody's really talking about it now. And yet there was an IPO not that long ago, I think in the last week for cmc. I might have the letters background, but.

Malcolm Etheridge (18:01)

That'S one of the.

Frank Collin (18:02)

Right.

Jim Leventhal (18:02)

So one of their, one of their semiconductor up and coming companies, other IPOs have come out in the air space and I think the concern here as I see it is that China really does become insular. Now we're supposedly allowed to sell them H200 Nvidia chips, but they kind of don't want it. We don't know how much of that is negotiation or how much of that is real in terms of China wanting to say we want to do it all ourselves. Is that a risk?

Christina Parts and Evolis (18:26)

Of course it's a risk. The self sufficiency of China, which is why Jensen Huang goes on these Trips and continuously talks about all the great developers that come out of China, that it's a $50 billion market opportunity. He tends to visit Asia right after Davos. So I'm sure we'll get some headlines out of that. China is moving forward. The goal goal for them is self sufficiency. So even if the government or regulators approve the import of some of these H200 chips from Nvidia, I think it's going to be a case by case basis and I think it's only going to go towards the hyperscalers, the larger ones that are really building out their large language models and need the most advanced chips. But China is capable of taking Huawei chips that are less powerful. Pairing. I'm making it very simple pairing them all together using way more power than we would use here in the United States because it's not an inhibitor over there and you know, producing models like Deep Seek and the next iterations of Deep Seat going forward and you know, Quinn and etc. So I think that is the biggest fear, which is why sovereign AI plays such a strong role to offset that weakness that a lot of these firms had from China.

Bill Baruch (19:26)

Can I get technical real quick with mentioning Nvidia being dead money? It's moved up a lot today. And look at those. Follow the anchored V waps from the closing high. We're back above their 188. Nvidia is, is actually a really exciting level to see here. If it can move a little bit higher, it goes above the late December high and then that earnings where we reverse pretty, pretty heavily. 196. I think the space is obviously getting a lot of lift here today. And I think you're going to see Nvidia wake up if it gets above 193 and a half. 196. Look out above. We're going to head for a new record high. You see some tremendous flows.

Frank Collin (20:00)

All right, so right now, looking at Nvidia right now trading about 188. So you're saying we're on pace for record highs about 3% right now?

Bill Baruch (20:05)

No, no, no, we're at 188 right now.

Frank Collin (20:07)

We're saying. You say it's on pace for a record high?

Bill Baruch (20:09)

No, we're. We're far away from record high. Record high, what, to 10 to 20?

Frank Collin (20:12)

No, I'm saying. You're saying that's the direction it's going.

Bill Baruch (20:14)

That's the direction that we're going. If we get above this resistance, I think you're going to see some solid Flows. And let's not forget that Nvidia from a, from a Multiple standpoint at 25 forward is one standard deviation above. It's below its five year average with 28 and change. So I think it's, it's an exciting name to keep an eye on. Right.

Frank Collin (20:30)

Since you're bringing out the technicals, what's the, the level of resistance? I'm sure people are like, okay, what is that level of resistance?

Bill Baruch (20:34)

193 and a half and then 196. 196 is, is there was the high the day after its earnings. So this is getting, it's chewing through and getting above that anchored vwap which a lot of people watch from its closing high. And I think that could start to excite, excite some flows.

Frank Collin (20:49)

All right, Christina, while we have here, I want to ask you a question because I was talking to Roger McNeil from Longview Global earlier today just about the trade tension between the US and China and a lot of our allies kind of leaning towards China, not because they love China, just because the US has become more volatile. Is there a chance that China is just using the, I guess the customs rejection of these chips as a bargaining chip? The chips are a big part of the bargaining chip along with the critical minerals and, and the rare earths. Is there a chance this is just a little bluster, if you will, China pushing back just to kind of build up its chips in this negotiation. They really do need them.

Christina Parts and Evolis (21:21)

At first I thought you're going to ask me about Canada and the fact that you have so many other countries.

Frank Collin (21:24)

That are Mark Carney's there.

Christina Parts and Evolis (21:25)

Exactly. So on terms of the trade front, we should be maybe a little bit concerned here in the United States, and I'm Canadian, that's the reason why I bring it up. But for China, of course, of course Nvidia is being used as a, as a play. They went after Nvidia for Mellanox, an acquisition back in 2020, but they went after Nvidia several years after the deal went through. Why? They're just trying to nitpick and find issues with the company to use Nvidia as a poster child or AMD or Intel or Applied Materials. A lot of these names have been caught in the crossfire. And just one final thing you were talking about just the resistance point at 193. Nvidia has been stuck in this range for quite some time. And I think that there's been the zero sum trading game with either software versus the smh. You're seeing within video it's just like how much upside is there? Even if they, you can argue the valuation has come down and it's much cheaper than a lot of other chip names. I just wonder, you know, is that enough of an argument? And that's the reason why people have stayed on the sidelines for Nvidia and then moved into the other parts of the play chip world.

Commercial Narrator (22:23)

I should say.

Bill Baruch (22:23)

Well, software has been, been, been hit pretty hard here to start the year and that could ask the question where are, where's that money going to go next? Now obviously there's some really tremendous outperformance and in other, other spots you see in IWM really breaking out, you're seeing the staple of names have a great run, Industrial is doing well and energy doing well. But you know what, I think there's money on the sidelines keeping an eye on some of these, these ones that consolidated very well. And let's, let's not forget this is a big long term uptrend. The trend is your friend. And we're really, really see this nice consolidate. I think it's going to be breaking out here.

Jim Leventhal (22:58)

Are you saying you think software is perhaps an opportunity? Because boy, that's been tough, man. That thing, every time you think it's getting a bid, it just opens a door underneath you.

Bill Baruch (23:07)

I was kind of saying the exact opposite. You're seeing the flows out of software now. I mean there are some names to kind of pick through now, you know, synopsis. Looks, looks like it's coming alive. There are some, there's some spots to look at in software, but I'm not very excited about software. I'm saying that that money got it.

Frank Collin (23:23)

Before we get too far away from chips, we kind of already are. Malcolm, you're also an Nvidia shareholder. Any thoughts about this read on Nvidia and maybe some other chip stocks that you may own?

Malcolm Etheridge (23:31)

Yeah, Bill took it technical. I'll go fundamental. I'm curious to see what the guidance related to Rubin is going to be in the second half of this year. I think that'll be make or break across the board for Nvidia because the upgrade from like 8 to 72 chips on a cluster is supposed to be a massive improvement for them, which would make all the difference for the hyperscalers that are still buying Nvidia chips. But they won't have that read until probably the second half of this year. So we're kind of just waiting and hoping until we get to that point. So it wouldn't surprise me if Nvidia stays super rangebound until then because there's no other real catalyst to get us there.

Frank Collin (24:05)

All right, big thank you to Christina Parts and Evolis. Thank you very much for your perspective and the Canadian insight. We always appreciate that. All right, coming up here on Halftime, committee moves. Bill Baruch is ready with the name that he's selling and also with what he's buying. The trades are next. Stay with us. Halftime back in just two minutes.

Jim Leventhal (24:25)

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Frank Collin (24:26)

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Jim Leventhal (24:55)

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Bill Baruch (25:07)

The patient scanning data managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on.

Jim Leventhal (25:12)

With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities.

Frank Collin (25:22)

Restriction supply thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.

Commercial Narrator (25:26)

Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs. Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?

Bill Baruch (25:47)

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

Frank Collin (26:07)

And welcome back to Halftime. We have some committee moves to hit. We're going to start off with this one. Bill, you sold T Mobile.

Bill Baruch (26:12)

Yeah, it was in the bottom of our portfolio area. It's not been excited I think exciting. The below the 50 day moving average CAPEX is going to I think could be a problem here as as you see competition continue to heat up. We own AT&T as well and we don't want to own both names and so I want to put that cash somewhere else.

Frank Collin (26:30)

All right. Did you expect the telecom to be expected? Exciting.

Bill Baruch (26:32)

Well look at what AT and T was able to do last year and really for the last 18 months before it turned down a bit, it's been really exciting and T Mobile is a multi year compounder, really has been.

Frank Collin (26:41)

We want to focus More on your buys?

Bill Baruch (26:42)

Yeah.

Frank Collin (26:42)

What are you buying?

Bill Baruch (26:44)

Well, yeah, we're buying LNG Cheniere. It's now you're seeing some interesting things take place in the commodity space. You're seeing the European natural gas prices really come to life and exports is where Cheniere makes their money. This, this has been bottoming out technically very well. About 95% of revenue comes from long term contracts. I like that this being a buying opportunity. I think energy is very exciting this year. That's why we're staying in the space with that buy from Cheniere as well. Exit Exxon. Exxon is breaking out. We're just increasing our position in that portfolio. In a portfolio, all three of these names that we bought, Cheniere, Exxon, which we've, we've owned. The crack spreads have become a little compressed. Refining margins compressed. But I'm trusting here that we need to own more of it. And it is breaking out. Then finally we added to slb. Slb got to zoom out here. I mean this has been very depressed since 2023 but I think it could be one of the main key beneficiaries of what's going on in venezuela. So about 1% in T mobile we sold that and we spreading across these three names And I want to get a little more energy exposure. I like what we're seeing in the energy space. I think that can continue here the first half of the year.

Frank Collin (27:48)

So we saw its price target raised by ray J from 43 up to 52. Maintaining the outperform. I want to go back to natural gas for just a minute. Hit an October low yesterday. So you're saying you see clear signs of an upside move when it comes to natural gas. A lot of traders I talk to, they say that's the, the widowmaker trade.

Bill Baruch (28:03)

Yeah.

Frank Collin (28:03)

Talking about natural gas very volatile and you can lose a lot of money.

Bill Baruch (28:06)

That's a, that's a really great question. So Cheniere, really what US natural gas prices are doing don't impact Cheniere. I mean from the long, from the long term US natural gas prices have. I mean there's been a pretty heavy reversal out of the mid December kind of gasp for air and they continue to go lower. It's US natural gas prices especially this time of year are going to be matter on, on weather. And the widowmaker trade is actually a spread between the February and March contracts because that's where the weather really starts to shift. But here's the interesting thing is Cheniere is an exporter. They get paid on volume of exports and the Spread between the. With European natural gas becoming more, you know, moving higher and more expensive, you're seeing that spread starting to widen and that becomes attractive for. For demand of exports via Cheniere.

Frank Collin (28:53)

All right, Jim, you also own. I'm just looking at the chart. I'm just looking at the chart stand. About 7% over the last two months. That seems to be kind of the range that we often look at for the market was kind of not making a lot of moves. This obviously underperforming over that time. Your view on the company and also. So Bill's buy.

Jim Leventhal (29:08)

Yeah, well, first off, I like the buy. It's a little bit uncharacteristic of you as I know you and I don't want to pigeonhole you, but you're more of a trader mentality. And I look at Cheniere and the way you were describing it as an exporter as this is more of a long term play. Now you did bring in the spread between European contracts and American. I get it. But for you to pick this up here, I really compliment you because this is a value play here. This is. Hey, wait, there's a business here of exporting natural gas around the world. And Cheniere is the key linchpin in that. And I think that the price decline over the past several months, perhaps because of natural gas, as you're pointing out, Frank, is the good entry point. And we'll see if you stay with it for a long period of time. I love your Exxon Mobil purchase. You know, you said it's breaking out, but as you know, if you look at this over a long period of time, I don't know if the control room can give us a five year chart. I mean, the breakout. It is a breakout, but it's tiny in comparison to what it's been doing over the last last five years. It's a long term compounder. Thank you for that chart. And it's going to continue to go higher. Consider this, that five year chart is twice the return of the s and P500. And over the last five years, crude oil prices have stunk. But as Bill points out, it's far more than crude oil prices for Exxon. It's refining its marketing, its distribution. Good on you.

Frank Collin (30:19)

Look at you calling for a five year charge.

Jim Leventhal (30:21)

I mean.

Frank Collin (30:22)

All right, time now for the headlines with Kate Rooney. Kate?

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (30:25)

Hi there, Frank. Federal prosecutors charged 20 people, including 15 former college basketball players in what they called a betting scheme to rig NCAA and Chinese Basketball association games. Some of the defendants played as recently as the 2024 and 2025 season. Prosecutors say a group of quote fixers recruited the players in a point shaving scheme with bribe payments that were between 10 to 30 thousand dollars per game. The suspects face charges ranging from bribery and smooth sports wire fraud and aiding and abetting. Next up, the number two official at ICE announced today she is going to be leaving the agency to run for Congress. 28 year old Madison Sheehan joined the Immigration Enforcement Agency early last year and oversaw day to day operations. Sheehan is running for the house in Ohio's 9th district, a seat which is currently held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur. And finally, Verizon now says it will issue a $20 credit to customers affected by Wednesday's widespread cellular service outage. It lasted from about 12pm Eastern to well after 10pm Eastern. Verizon says the credit will cover several days of service. Frank, back over to you.

Frank Collin (31:35)

Our Kate Rooney with the headlines. Kate, thank you very much. Coming up next on halftime, we'll debate our top calls today on committee names. Halftime's back right after this.

Commercial Narrator (31:46)

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Bill Baruch (32:09)

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

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Frank Collin (33:18)

And welcome back to halftime. Let's hit some calls of the day. We're going to start with Digital Realty upgraded to buy from hold at hsbc. Analysts go on to say that we think market concerns on 2027 growth look overdone. Malcolm, you own this one?

Malcolm Etheridge (33:30)

Yeah. The data center segment of the commercial real estate space is a bit of a mixed bag, but I think DLR is probably, probably the safest way to play that space considering they've got some very long standing relationships and their customers are not going to be walking away from those opportunities simply because there's a delay in powering on a data center or something like that. So if you're interested in being in that space, I think DLR is a.

Frank Collin (33:52)

Good way to do it. Those shares, up just about one and a half percent, want to move on Netflix. Its target cut to 115 from 140 over at Wedbush. Netflix reports its earnings next Tuesday. By the way, Bill, you on this one. Looking at the chart, Netflix shares down almost 14% since they made that offer for Warner Brothers Discovery.

Bill Baruch (34:07)

It's an ugly chart. I'm not interested in adding to this at this point. It's again, it's, this is another name that's in the bottom third, the bottom quarter of our portfolio. It's a 1.3% weighting. I do, on the positive side, credit ourselves way ahead of this. We sold this about 115 area in our concentrated portfolio is one of our names in the portfolio where we owe no more than the 10 and look to get out, get away from it for here. I don't see a reason why it's going to turn around right now. I'm not going to call it impaired or dead money just yet. I think it's a little too low. If you're bottom fishing. It is a little, potentially an area to look at. But we're not excited for it here. I just kind of stay on the side.

Frank Collin (34:45)

Quick question. We got to move on. Do you think it's a good deal?

Bill Baruch (34:48)

A good deal? It's a tough business, you know, to really say it's a good deal. I, I don't have a strong opinion right here, but I mean, but, but the market's telling you it's, it's not.

Frank Collin (35:01)

All right, moving on to one of the best trades in 2026, Material CRH, big materials player. Its target raised to 145 from 132 at bank of America. Jim, we talked about this quite a few times. You own this one.

Jim Leventhal (35:11)

Do I talk about it as much as Citigroup?

Frank Collin (35:13)

Not quite.

Jim Leventhal (35:13)

Okay. All right, well, I'll see if I can change that. CRH is a great long term holding and I'm not going to Go through the numbers. Any one of you watching can look at the 1, 3, 5, 10 year track record of the stock and see that it absolutely crushes the S&P 500. Now that tells you what it's done. What is it going to do? Well, we know that there's a heck of a lot of building going on, whether it's supply chain onshoring, new factories going on, infrastructure and a lot of the aggregates, concrete, all that sort of stuff that needs to go into those projects comes from crh. It's the biggest aggregates company in the world. It's is twice the size of competitors Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials, and it's one third of the valuation. So I see bright things ahead for crh.

Frank Collin (35:55)

All right, moving on back to the media space, Spotify to increase its pricing for its premium service to 1299amonth starting in February. Malcolm, you own this one.

Malcolm Etheridge (36:03)

Yeah. Spotify has been a hard one to own the last four or five, six months. Pick your your point. But I think it's setting up to give a really attractive, attractive entry point to anybody who's interested in that streaming model. Netflix has been a darling for quite some time until it ran into this speed bump. And to me that's kind of a pear trade. If you like Netflix, you should love also Spotify. So to me, the streaming increase in cost for the platform is going to be additive to revenue going forward. This is probably the place to be adding shares if you don't already own it.

Frank Collin (36:33)

Word all about Netflix trying to encroach you on their business, making deals with iHeart, trying to get some of those podcasts and other audio which we think of as audio content formats, on to Netflix.

Malcolm Etheridge (36:43)

Well, Spotify also encroached on Amazon's territory with the entry of audio books and it looks like consumers have been willing to pay up for that. So I think if nothing else, it's really just showing that the model has staying power. Their customers are very sticky. The price increases don't tend to send people away from the platform. So to me, these two companies, Spotify, Netflix, the two that you want to own long term as part of your.

Frank Collin (37:04)

Spotify shares pulling back about 3.5%. Coming up on halftime momentum in the metals market. How the committee is navigating that trade coming up next. Stay with us.

Jim Leventhal (37:15)

As our country celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the leaders driving business and the nation forward.

Frank Collin (37:25)

I am a good example of somebody who's just been drawn by the promise of America, the entrepreneurship, the freedom, the opportunity to innovate, the no limits on what any one person can achieve. And I think that is the message which is everything that we've got here in the United States that creates that special sense of possibility. And the message to everyone in the country is that we really can do whatever it is that we put our minds to. When you bring a group of people.

Bill Baruch (37:57)

Together with common purpose and setting a.

Frank Collin (38:01)

Mission wrapped in freedom and the opportunity to innovate, you can do amazing things. That is the story of the United States of America. And welcome back to halftime. The metals complex pulling just a bit back from its all time highs today. But the group is still sitting on some very strong gains over the past few months. Our Pippa Stevens joins us now with much more on those moves. Pippa.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (38:40)

Hey Frank.

Christina Parts and Evolis (38:40)

While a perceived Iranian de escalation is.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (38:43)

Cooling the broader metals momentum today with President Trump's decision not to impose tariffs on critical minerals, at least for the time being. Also heading the group now that uncertainty had pulled forward buying which we saw in the spread between COMEX and LME.

Christina Parts and Evolis (38:57)

Pricing as well as building inventories in.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (39:00)

The U.S. but of course, metals have had a blistering run higher with lower.

Christina Parts and Evolis (39:04)

Rates, a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks all driving interest.

Kate Rooney / Emily Wilkins (39:08)

Now the AI trade also a part of this, especially for copper, which is the key for electrification. And the hyperscalers are taking note. Rio Tinto and Amazon Web Services teaming up, announcing today that the tech giant will be the first customer for copper from a Rio project in Arizona. Terms of the two year agreement were not disclosed, but this of course follows the miner renewing talks about a possible merger with Glencore amid the market's focus on metals scarcity.

Frank Collin (39:36)

Frank, our Pippa Stevens back there at CNBC hq. Pippa, thank you very much. Just kind of looking right now, a lot of notes about metals as you can imagine in recent weeks and days. Wells today saying demand for copper, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt and silicon expected to triple by 2030. You have so much metals exposure, Bill, I'm not going to read all the names I mentioned. One Wheaton on a five day win streak. Just your view of the metals sector right now. Is this an investment or is this a trade?

Bill Baruch (40:00)

This is investment. I think we would call this a super cycle for quite a while. You know what you're seeing here, gold has had a lot less volatility than silver per se. What you're, you know, wheat and precious metals, they're going to have a little bit of more volatility tied Tied to silver a little bit too. Some of these miners have good, good exposure. Think about silver is China established export controls on silver the turn of the year and we've seen the Shanghai price of silver outpace the US price of silver. And margins on, on trading this have continued to increase too. It's going to continue to be sort of this feedback loop of volatility. I think silver can get to $130, but I don't think it's going to be a straight line. I'm also watching the gold silver ratio. You're seeing that really break down to the lowest level. It's been that means silver outpacing gold since 2012. I think there's a lot of opportunity over the long term here. But. But don't chase it because it's the new hot item right now. In fact, I manage a metals fund and using metals futures and really we've been kind of taking a step back and want to be an offense and really taking it from a trader's perspective that we, when the markets are, when these are able to fall back, I'm able to use that as a buying opportunity rather than sitting with heavy core positions and managing the core positions as much. I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity developing then. As for copper, it's going to be a very undersupplied market for the foreseeable future. I like this move from Amazon, it's exciting. But a lot of this takes a lot of time to come to fruition too.

Frank Collin (41:22)

All right, Speaking of five day win streaks, Cleveland Cliffs on a five day win streak as well. You're invested in there playing metals kind of on the industrial side.

Jim Leventhal (41:29)

Yeah. Now this, this is a commodity producer. So when you're talking about commodities, as Bill Malcolm knows, it's price of the commodity times volume minus cost. When you look at price for steel, it's been rising recently and volumes seem like they're hanging in there as well. The key element here is does automotive production pick up? We've seen better than expected sales of automobiles. And if we're reshoring automobile production, then that volume of steel that's going into automobiles, 30% of Cleveland Cliffs business should pick up with it. Now the real kicker here is Cleveland Cliffs has some idiosyncratic, some very specific things going on. They have taken their revenues up tenfold over the last seven years by making a lot of acquisitions. And with those acquisitions has come some hair higher than expected debt levels. Some contracts that have recently rolled off that were frankly punitive to their P and L. But as I said, those have recently rolling off. So as we go into 20, 20, 26, it will be interesting to see if that hair that I just described gets cut down and we can see the beauty of the underlying business come through. I think we will.

Frank Collin (42:30)

All right, Cleveland Cliff shares up almost 4% right now over the last six months up over 60%. No five year chart this time. All right, coming up next, Mike Santori joining us with his MIDDAY word. We're back right after this. And we are back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Tech and financials leading today. Mike, what do you make of this action?

Mike Santoli (42:55)

Yeah, obviously people returning to the old leadership. The way the year has played out so far. It's been very kinetic. Right. There's been a lot of kind of quick steep trades in things that were left behind and a lot of sell offs and some work last year. Today you have a little more of a unified risk on. We're happy to buy, follow the earnings growth and all the rest of it. It's been almost textbook. If you said as many people did say last year, market can both broaden and go up at the index level. I've been skeptical that you're going to get to the consensus S and P targets if truly the magic seven just sits there. But today you have a day when they're being picked up and I think the whole food train, it makes sense. Taking its cue from Taiwan semis news overnight also for the seven mag. Seven are at least in double digit pullbacks. So you have this a sense out there that you can, you can buy them here. I don't know that it's a trend change. I do think it's interesting. The banks probably got overdone on the downside yesterday. Sentiment starting to get a little bit frothy, I think hands.

Frank Collin (43:56)

I see that.

Mike Santoli (43:57)

Yeah. I mean I don't want to say.

Frank Collin (43:58)

All of a sudden it's going to.

Mike Santoli (43:59)

Stop in its tracks, but you have to be aware that we're building up and paying in advance for a good amount of good news right here, which is plausible that we'll get.

Frank Collin (44:07)

All right. Also we're seeing metals move higher, also seeing energy prices move higher. In fact, those are two best sectors year to date. Does that possibly impact the broader rally of the fact that we're potentially seeing metals prices go up and energy prices go up at the same time?

Mike Santoli (44:19)

I don't think they can quickly move the needle on the overall inflation picture. I would defer to the bond market to do my worrying for me about that. And right now it's not doing that. You're not seeing, obviously, long end yields blow out. I think right now you can take an optimistic slant on it and say it's a reflationary trade globally, not an inflationary one or one that's going to impede economic recovery from here, at least for now.

Frank Collin (44:43)

All right, Mike, you're actually holding back on this really quick. You said today's action reminds you of a movie title. You got your own take on the.

Mike Santoli (44:48)

Revenge of the Herd. The thing is, I plagiarize myself all the time. I probably used it four times.

Frank Collin (44:52)

Mike said it was midday where we couldn't leave that one out. Mike, thank you very much. All right, coming up next, playing defense. The sector's up double digits to start the year. We debate if this run for defense can continue. Halftime back right after this. All right, welcome back to halftime. Aerospace and defense stocks hitting a record high today, but UBS is out with some cautious commentary on the sector heading into earnings. Jim, let's start with you. You own Lockheed Martin, which is on a five day win streak.

Jim Leventhal (45:19)

Yeah, it's had a nice start to the year, Frank, and I think we understand the fundamental reasons why. There are hot wars, hot conflicts all over the globe and, and frankly, notwithstanding a pullback in rhetoric or threats around Iran, I don't think that's over either. We know last week that the president ramped up or called for ramps up in production of missiles and other defense products and that benefits. Lockheed Martin had a terrible year last year. But as I said at the end of 2025, this is the one to watch going into 2026.

Frank Collin (45:49)

Bill, quick word. You own two names in the space. Lado's is one of them. Your view on defense overall?

Bill Baruch (45:55)

I like the defense space. I wish we had more exposure a few months ago. We're increasing our exposure in lidos. I'm expecting it to break out. I think there's. It's tough right here to say you would continue to see this type of performance from it. I would like to see it take a little breather and reevaluate to add more at that time.

Frank Collin (46:11)

All right. Looking at those shares, they're pulling back just about a half a percent right now. All right, stay with us. Final trades. They're coming up on halftime Foreign. We are back with final trades. Malcolm, kick us off.

Malcolm Etheridge (46:32)

Yeah, I'm going service now. I think this one starts to separate itself from the rest of the software herd.

Frank Collin (46:36)

From here all right, service now at a 52 week low. Bill, coming over to you.

Bill Baruch (46:40)

Ice. Very diversified portfolio. You know, they have great exposure, I think, in the mortgage space, too. They own this building, New York Stock Exchange. It's breaking north up out of a bear flag pattern. So I like it right here.

Frank Collin (46:51)

All right, Jim, you get the last word.

Jim Leventhal (46:53)

Apollo Global, I mean, this is the leader, in my opinion, in privates. Last year it was very tough for alternative managers. But at the end of the year, we started to see a bid come back to it. We're seeing that continue this year. I know a lot of people at Apollo and I frankly think they're the smartest people in the room. So I'm happy to be in Apollo. And I think that's the final trip.

Frank Collin (47:12)

Apollo shares up just about a half a percent. That's going to do it for us here on Halftime. We got the exchange coming up with Kelly Evans and it starts right now.

Bill Baruch (47:20)

You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast.

Frank Collin (47:24)

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Bill Baruch (47:27)

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