CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Return of the Tariff Threat?
Date: October 13, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal
Main Theme:
Market volatility after renewed US-China tariff threats, with a sharp market bounce following a Friday selloff. The panel analyzes investor positioning, leverage risks, implications of new tariffs, and key upcoming earnings—particularly from banks. Also discussed: sector rotation, the role of precious metals and crypto, and navigating markets at stretched valuations.

1. Market Recap & Main Theme

• The market rebounded sharply after a steep Friday selloff, regaining ~75% of lost ground.
• Focus: Reaction to new tariff rhetoric from President Trump, market fragility, and portfolio strategies amid increased volatility.
• Wide-ranging discussion on leverage exposure, quality vs. momentum, upcoming bank earnings, and the role of alternative assets.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

Market Reaction to Tariff Threats

• Immediate bounceback: All indices green; NASDAQ leading.
• Joe Terranova (01:59):
  • Sees a “secular bull market” intact through 2025, but warns volatility will persist and reminds investors to monitor their exposure to leverage:

    "A stark reminder to you as the investor to understand what your leverage exposure is...this is really a glimpse into 26 more than anything else in the near term."

• Jenny Harrington (04:12):
  • Critiques market surprise at tariffs, stresses current market is “priced for perfection,” with little margin for error.

    "Something as benign as a Trump tweet on Friday...we all should have known...But why are we so surprised? Why are we taking that as real? Why are we letting the market go down 3%?"

• Steve Weiss (05:46):
  • Attributes Friday's panic to broader market fragility, not just tariffs. Warns “bubble talk” pervasive in AI and tech, and questions market support via fundamentals.

    “This market is in a...tentative position...we never really know what the catalyst is taken down.”

Leverage, Credit Concerns & Crypto Disruption

• Jim Lebenthal (08:12):
  • Argues leverage is a greater concern than tariffs; draws parallels to early warnings before the 2008 financial crisis.

    “In May of 2007…that’s what people said about Bear Stearns…History doesn’t repeat itself, it does rhyme…Let’s start paying attention to credit spreads.”

  • Highlights deleveraging in crypto as a potential liquidity risk, citing automatic liquidations of accounts.
• Joe Terranova & Jim Lebenthal (11:00-11:36):
  • Discuss whether Bitcoin functioned as a safe haven; agree structural issues with perpetual futures and liquidity on trading platforms must be resolved before crypto is a true hedge.

Portfolio Strategy: Stress-testing, Rotation, and Defensive Moves

• Jenny Harrington (11:45):
  • Urges investors to preemptively think about diversification, especially given fragility and high valuations:

    “The time to have that conversation preemptively is today.”

  • Suggests taking profits in appreciated positions (like Nvidia) within tax-advantaged accounts and repositioning toward fixed income or underperforming sectors.

Bank Earnings, BDCs, and Financial Sector Inflection

• Jim Lebenthal & Steve Weiss (13:01-14:42):
  • Bank earnings are crucial; BDCs/private lenders provide a window into the broader economy, perhaps more so than big banks serving top-tier clients.
    • Jenny Harrington (19:17-20:23):

      “If you want to know what’s really going on, you listen to Aries, you listen to Golub, you listen to 6th Street…BDCs are much more reflective of the overall economy.”

• Joe Terranova (17:19-18:36):
  • Predicts a “reckoning moment” for financials this quarter—focus on how banks use excess capital and whether good earnings translate into positive price action.

Market Technicals

• Frank Holland & Joe Terranova (22:39-22:54):
  • S&P returning to its 50-day moving average is not highly significant; 200-day average is more closely watched for market signals.

3. Sector Calls & Stock Moves

Commodities & Precious Metals

• Goldman Sachs upgrades Newmont Mining to Buy
  • Joe Terranova (25:28):

    "...A tremendous amount of capital inflow there...represent a diversification element for a portfolio."

  • Jim Lebenthal cautions the “melt-up phase” in gold, implying current prices are driven by FOMO and momentum, not just fundamentals (26:33).
• Platinum & Palladium both up strong; conversation links metals rally to inflation and currency concerns.

Other Sector Highlights

• AstraZeneca: Praised for positive U.S. policy stance and attractive pipeline. (Jim Lebenthal, 27:17)
• PayPal: Downgraded to Sell; acknowledged ongoing revenue/stock price challenges. (Joe Terranova, 27:55)
• Wynn Resorts: Short-term weakness tied to China, but long-term outlook supported by new resorts and strong Las Vegas results. (Jim Lebenthal, 28:43)
• Zimmer Biomet Holdings: Upgraded on valuation, yield, and new products; seen as a “place to hide out” amid market instability. (Jenny Harrington, 29:45)
• Broadcom: Surged >10% on OpenAI partnership. Concerns over sustainability of massive deal volume and financing in the AI arms race.
  • Jenny Harrington jokes (39:13):

    “It’s like—You get a partnership! You get a partnership!...It’s getting crazy.”

  • Steve Weiss casts doubt on whether all these partnerships will be executed (40:02).

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 01:59 | Joe Terranova | "A stark reminder...understand what your leverage exposure is...this is really a glimpse into 26..." | | 04:12 | Jenny Harrington | "Why are we so surprised? Why are we taking that as real? Why are we letting the market go down 3%?" | | 05:46 | Steve Weiss | "This market is in a...tentative position...never really know what the catalyst is taken down." | | 08:12 | Jim Lebenthal | "History doesn’t repeat itself, it does rhyme…Let’s start paying attention to credit spreads."| | 11:00 | Joe Terranova | "Bitcoin, it wasn’t the diversifier that I was told it was going to be." | | 11:45 | Jenny Harrington | "The time to have that conversation [about rebalancing] preemptively is today." | | 19:17 | Jenny Harrington | "If you want to know what’s really going on, you listen to Aries, you listen to Golub, you listen to 6th Street." | | 39:13 | Jenny Harrington | “It’s like—You get a partnership! You get a partnership!...It’s getting crazy.” |

5. ETF Edge: Protecting Portfolios Amid Volatility

• Guest: John Barello, Invesco
• Focus on using option-based income ETFs for risk management and diversification, especially as Americans have “never been more vulnerable to a market selloff” (34:45).
• Stresses active risk management and understanding ETF strategy structures.

6. Dovish Fed Commentary (Anna Paulson, Philadelphia Fed President) (45:19)

• First speech: Advocates moving policy to a more neutral stance, supporting two rate cuts this year.
• Expects tariffs will “increase the price level but won’t leave a lasting imprint on inflation”—Fed should look through tariff effects.
• Panel broadly agrees rate cuts aren’t imperative, market resilience is more about earnings strength.

7. Rapid Fire & Final Trades (48:38)

• AbbVie: Defensive pick, high dividend, attractive valuation. (Jim Lebenthal)
• Amazon: Lags peers, but strong in AI, huge compute power. (Steve Weiss)
• Sixth Street Specialty Lending: Quality private credit, high yield. (Jenny Harrington)
• Datadog: Technical breakout expected; possible revisit of past highs. (Joe Terranova)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | Notes | |---------|------------|-------| | Market context & Friday’s selloff | 01:18–05:21 | Volatility, tariff shock, fragility | | Leverage & crypto liquidation | 08:12–11:45 | Structural risks, credit spread vigilance | | Precious metals, crypto, portfolio strategy | 11:00–13:01 | Gold, Bitcoin, rebalancing advice | | Bank earnings & BDCs | 13:01–22:24 | What signals to watch, sector risks | | Technicals (S&P 50-day MA) | 22:39–22:54 | Limited impact | | Gold, commodities | 25:21–27:09 | Diversification, FOMO risk in gold | | Stock & sector calls | 27:09–31:27 | AZN, PayPal, Macau/casinos, Zimmer Biomet | | ETF Edge: Hedging volatility | 34:08–37:29 | Income ETFs, options, risk management | | Broadcom & AI infrastructure | 38:00–40:49 | OpenAI partnership, sustainability doubts | | Fed dovishness & macro | 45:00–48:05 | Anna Paulson’s first speech, rates, CPI/PPI | | Final trades | 48:38–49:52 | Defensive and value picks |

8. Summary Takeaways

• Tariff headlines amplify existing market fragility, but sharp rebounds show FOMO and momentum are still driving markets.
• Leverage and tight credit spreads are underappreciated risks. Some panelists see echoes of past crises in today’s benign numbers.
• Precious metals are reemerging as a favored diversifier, while crypto fails as a safe haven in times of stress.
• Bank and BDC earnings this week are pivotal, particularly for credit outlook nuance and broad economic health signals.
• Active portfolio management and diversification are urged now, not after damage, given high valuations and profit concentration.
• Fed policy is turning gradually dovish; panel views rate cuts as less important than earnings resilience.
• AI and tech exuberance continue—but panelists question whether the capital supporting these expansions is sustainable.
• Recommended approach: Focus on high-quality companies, monitor credit, rebalance proactively, and heed signals from alternative lenders and financials.

For those who missed it: This episode delivers a nuanced debate on how to navigate a jittery, overextended market buffeted by geopolitical, credit, and structural risks. The panel offers actionable strategies—emphasizing vigilance, risk management, and skepticism on crowded trades and “sure-thing” growth stories.