Halftime Report: Shaky or Stabilizing? (8/8/25)
Released on August 8, 2025

Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Dan Greenhouse, Jim Labenthal, Kevin Simpson, Steve Weiss

1. Market Overview: Shaky or Stabilizing?

The episode opens with Scott Wapner addressing the central question: Is the current state of the stock market shaky or stabilizing? With the S&P 500 experiencing its best week since early June, tensions arise among the panelists regarding the market's true stability.

• Dan Greenhouse (02:51): "Shaky. Beneath the headline, there are some things going on that leave me less optimistic than I had been since the start of July."
  Dan expresses concern over the underlying factors that may not be immediately visible in the headline numbers, particularly pointing out the flat performance of the equal-weight ETF and the dominance of AI-driven, lower-quality stocks driving recent gains.

• Jim Labenthal (03:18): Acknowledges the shaky outlook in the near term despite positive economic indicators.
  "We're talking shaky over the next month and a half. There are too many things going right in the economy..."
  Jim suggests that while the current indicators look promising, the market still faces uncertainties that justify a cautious stance.

• Kevin Simpson (05:37): "Shaky 100%."
  Kevin concurs with the shaky perspective, backing it with mathematical analysis predicting a potential 5-8% market pullback based on historical moving averages.

• Steve Weiss (06:54): "Doesn't seem shaky to me at all."
  Steve counters the prevailing sentiment by arguing that the market's top performers are fundamentally strong and that the broader market health remains intact.

2. Earnings and Federal Reserve Policies

The panel delves into the robustness of current earnings, with Wapner highlighting that earnings growth is on the verge of surpassing 13.7%, a figure seen in Q1.

• Scott Wapner (05:08):
  "Earnings have been good. There's the unknown regarding the fallout from tariffs ultimately on the economy..."
  He emphasizes that despite strong earnings, uncertainties such as tariff impacts and Federal Reserve actions continue to cloud the market's outlook.

• Jim Labenthal (05:35): "We have climbed the wall of worry. There is very little left to concern the markets right now."
  Jim remains optimistic, suggesting that the market has navigated through most of its concerns and is poised for continued growth, potentially supported by Fed rate cuts.

3. Market Concentration: A Double-Edged Sword

A significant portion of the discussion centers on market concentration, with attention drawn to the disproportionate influence of top-performing stocks.

• Scott Wapner (10:16):
  "The largest 10% of U.S. stocks now account for 76% of total U.S. market cap. That's the highest concentration ever."
  Scott brings to light alarming statistics on market concentration, questioning whether this signifies a healthy market or an over-reliance on a handful of giants.

• Dan Greenhouse (12:19):
  "It's very top heavy. But defined how, I mean, I just did."
  Dan acknowledges the concentration but provides context by highlighting the substantial size and influence of these top companies, arguing that their dominance doesn't inherently indicate instability.

• Jim Labenthal (12:45):
  "I do think it's too concentrated. But I think the comment that it's too concentrated is irrelevant because it was too concentrated when the top 10 were 30%."
  Jim contends that while concentration is high, it has been a long-standing characteristic of the market, and active portfolio management can mitigate associated risks.

4. Individual Stock Highlights

a. Microsoft

• Steve Weiss (16:36):
  "Microsoft is going to do well. It's a market leader and will continue to do so."
  Steve dismisses concerns over OpenAI's integration with Microsoft, asserting confidence in Microsoft's enduring market leadership and strategic initiatives.

b. Apple

• Jim Labenthal (18:34):
  "They should [acquire Perplexity]. Apple needs to do three things: Do the Perplexity acquisition before it's too late, bring in outside talent to the management team, and do the Google Gemini partnership."
  Jim emphasizes the necessity for Apple to bolster its AI capabilities to sustain its high valuation and growth trajectory.

• Dan Greenhouse (20:55):
  "Apple needs to do something along the lines of Perplexity, otherwise there's a problem."
  Dan underscores the consensus that strategic acquisitions are crucial for Apple to maintain its competitive edge.

c. Eli Lilly

• Kevin Simpson (43:17):
  "If they miss, you get beaten up."
  Kevin discusses Eli Lilly's stock performance, cautioning that while he holds the stock, he wouldn't recommend it to others due to recent disappointments in earnings.

d. Elf Beauty

• Kevin Simpson (44:06):
  "I did sell it [Elf Beauty] on Tuesday at 115. They face intense competition and don't have the online buzz."
  Kevin expresses skepticism about Elf Beauty's potential, despite Deutsche's optimistic upgrade.

e. Home Depot

• Jim Labenthal (39:41):
  "I think it's attractively priced and this is a stock that does far more than just home building. It's a lot of industrial building aggregates and materials as well."
  Jim supports holding Home Depot, citing its diversified operations and benefits from infrastructure and reshoring trends.

5. State of the US Consumer

The discussion reveals a nuanced view of consumer behavior, balancing robust spending with selective expenditures.

• Brian Moynihan of Bank of America (Referenced at 25:34):
  "Don't listen to what people say they're going to do. Listen to what they do. And what they're doing is still spending money."
  Brian emphasizes that actual consumer spending remains strong, contrary to some reports of weakness in specific sectors.

• Dan Greenhouse (28:41):
  "The consumer is doing fine... consumer spending is doing just well right now."
  Dan advocates for a positive outlook on consumer health, supported by data from card companies and broad-based spending.

• Steve Weiss (32:47):
  "If prices go up because of tariffs, that means your dollar does not buy as much and you've got to pick and choose what you do buy."
  Steve discusses the potential impact of tariffs on consumer spending patterns, suggesting a shift towards essential or high-value purchases.

6. International Markets Outperforming US

International equities are highlighted as outperforming their US counterparts for the first time since 2002.

• Scott Wapner (23:00):
  "International equity markets don't appear to be on shaky ground. They are on pace to outperform the broad US benchmark this year for the first time since 2002."
  Highlighting the MSCI All World ex US being up 18.5% YTD compared to the S&P 500's 8.5%, Scott notes the growing strength of international markets.

• Steve Weiss (24:20):
  "Europe moving up is because those countries have been cutting rates... I would much rather still be in the US Market."
  Steve acknowledges the international outperformance but maintains a preference for the US market's long-term potential.

7. Closing Thoughts and Final Trades

As the episode wraps up, the panelists share their final trades and outlooks.

• Steve Weiss (45:36):
  "Taiwan semi look year to date ending July up 36%."
  Steve highlights Taiwan Semiconductor's impressive performance, indicating strong market confidence in the technology sector.

• Kevin Simpson (45:57):
  "We wrote covered calls against Lowe's. We did sell it on Tuesday at 115."
  Kevin discusses strategic options trading, reflecting cautious optimism in retail sectors.

• Jim Labenthal (46:02):
  "Wynn Resort sees demand good in the fourth quarter."
  Jim shares positive outlooks on hospitality stocks, despite broader market uncertainties.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Dan Greenhouse (02:51): "Shaky. Beneath the headline, there are some things going on that leave me less optimistic than I had been since the start of July."

• Jim Labenthal (04:04): "Because you need the wall of worry. You need something that the market, hey, wait a second. This is being overpriced to the downside right now."

• Kevin Simpson (05:37): "Shaky 100%."

• Steve Weiss (06:54): "Doesn't seem shaky to me at all."

• Jim Labenthal (18:34): "They should [acquire Perplexity]. Apple needs to do three things: Do the Perplexity acquisition before it's too late, bring in outside talent to the management team, and do the Google Gemini partnership."

• Dan Greenhouse (28:41): "The consumer is doing fine... consumer spending is doing just well right now."

• Steve Weiss (32:47): "If prices go up because of tariffs, that means your dollar does not buy as much and you've got to pick and choose what you do buy."

Conclusion

The episode presents a balanced debate on the current market dynamics, with panelists weighing the optimistic earnings and strong consumer spending against concerns of market concentration and potential rate-induced pullbacks. While international markets show robust performance, the US market's reliance on top-tier stocks remains a focal point of discussion. Individual stock analyses further underscore the complexities investors face in navigating the present economic landscape.

Note: This summary excludes advertisements, introductions, and outros, focusing solely on the core content of the "Halftime Report" podcast episode.