Sizing Up the Rally's Road Ahead 3/20/26

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Sizing Up the Rally’s Road Ahead
Date: March 20, 2026
Host (filling in): Leslie Picker
Panelists: Bill Baruch, Steve Weiss, Bryn Tockington

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Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives into the volatile state of the stock market amid geopolitical uncertainty, energy market turmoil, and evolving expectations for Federal Reserve policy. With the S&P 500 teetering on the brink of a multi-week losing streak, the Investment Committee discusses sector performance, the impact of the Middle East conflict, prospects for safe-haven assets, and key stock plays. The panel also assesses the risks of stagflation, financial sector headwinds, opportunities in metals and global markets, and zeroes in on individual names making headlines this week.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Market & Geopolitical Impact

[01:14–03:16]

• The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down, facing a potential fourth consecutive down week, the longest since March last year.
• Ongoing Middle East war and Hormuz Strait blockage are stalling money flows and raising private credit fears.
• Energy is the standout sector (+1.1%), with panelists remaining overweight.
• Bill Baruch: “At the end of the day it’s going to be a stock picker’s market. … There’s names that have been bludgeoned this year that have brought opportunity at this point.” (02:11)

2. Monetary Policy, Inflation & Stagflation Risks

[03:16–06:21]

• Market sentiment has shifted from rate-cut optimism to fears of possible hikes as inflationary risks rise.
• Flattening yield curve and potential for stagflation discussed.
• Steve Weiss: “Stagflation… would be really scary for the market. That would be when you’re losing jobs and inflation keeps going.” (05:06)
• Persistent conflict could worsen market volatility and risk “boots on the ground,” prolonging uncertainty.

3. Oil Prices and War Duration

[06:21–08:58]

• Oil futures indicate market expects the conflict to be short-lived, pricing crude $20 below spot prices.
• Bryn Tockington: “Oil prices… are incredibly elevated than where they were today three months ago. … This is existential for the leadership in Iran. … Jury’s still out.” (07:04)
• Elevated oil prices hurt global and especially emerging markets, reinforcing pressure on international indices.

4. Safe Havens and Defensive Positioning

[08:58–10:56]

• Precious metals, especially gold, are selling off despite potential safe-haven demand.
• Bill Baruch: “It’s come down to an old-fashioned just cash at the moment… because there is risk in bonds.” (09:12)
• Portfolio cash positions are lower than typical during uncertainty, as prior cash was deployed into select tech/software names.

5. When and How to Buy the Dip

[10:56–13:59]

• Debate over what would trigger a big buy; consensus is most “momentum is dead.”
• Value seen in select stocks (e.g., Netflix, Caterpillar after declines), but panelists recommend caution.
• Steve Weiss: “If your timeframe is a year, two years, three years… you’re going to do pretty well. But if you’re going to be anxious and worry about it, wait a little bit.” (12:21)

6. Sector Deep Dives: Industrials, Financials, and Stagflation

[13:59–18:22]

• Industrials: Some valuation excess has corrected (e.g., Caterpillar), creating potential opportunities.
• Financials are the year’s worst-performing sector, priced as if a recession is coming.
• Bryn Tockington: “If you’re going to go invest right now in financials, I really think you have to dollar cost average because… we are in this below the 200 day.” (15:30)
• The 1970s stagflation comparison is downplayed due to today’s US energy independence and the tech-driven, service-heavy economy.
• “We are a very services cap light economy that is not so reliant on other countries.” — Bryn Tockington (17:32)

7. Labor Market & Consumer Health

[18:22–19:32]

• Labor market remains tight; few layoffs or rifts (reductions in force), but two-thirds of people still live paycheck to paycheck, limiting economic upside.

8. Bank Performance and Private Credit

[19:32–24:30]

• Upcoming earnings and regulatory changes (Basel III) could free up capital for banks, yet capital markets activity remains sluggish (“IPOs getting pulled or delayed”).
• Private credit fears potentially overblown; risk of broader contagion low unless there’s a “run on the bank.”

9. Key Movers, Notable News & Stock Picks

Super Micro Drama & Dell Opportunity

[26:33–27:41]

• Super Micro down 28% on smuggling charges; Dell up as it may take market share.
  • Bryn Tockington: “This [Super Micro] headline is way more than just a headline. It just reads so poorly on the company.” (26:59)

Infrastructure & Energy Plays

[27:41–29:48]

• GE Vernova up due to US/Japan nuclear deal; considered expensive but worth holding due to a strong backlog.
• Defensive infrastructure and power generation stocks (Mass Tech, KMI, CCJ) highlighted for long-term exposure.

Tesla and Option Strategies

[29:48–32:17]

• Tesla under pressure, cut at HSBC, but some see technical support holding.
• Bryn Tockington: “With Tesla…this is a great name to sell calls… I do think there’s weakness right now.” (31:19)

Netflix Resilience

[32:17–33:26]

• Netflix remains a long-term hold due to content pipeline and strategic discipline (e.g., not overpaying for M&A like Warner).

10. Gold & Mining Stocks Meltdown

[36:45–39:08]

• Gold on its worst week since 2020; UBS suggests buying the dip in miners.
• Bill Baruch: “Miners are a core position. … The bullish percentage index has fallen off a cliff… but I think we’re in a secular bull market in metals.” (37:03)
• Caution that sector is heavily retail-driven and needs more correction before next uptrend.

11. Global Opportunities—Emerging Markets and China

[42:33–47:06]

• EEM (emerging markets ETF) struggling; case for tactical allocation mainly through memory chip exposure (Hynix, Samsung).
• South Korea’s EWY ETF noted as a concentrated memory trade.
• US–China financial interconnections remain tense, especially with Chinese companies increasingly choosing domestic IPOs.
• Steve Weiss: “When you own Baba… you only own the revenue flows…. At any moment they could say, ‘You can’t list your ADR.’” (46:20)

12. Final Trades

[47:14]

• Bryn Tockington: Dollar cost average CBRE.
• Steve Weiss: Cash.
• Bill Baruch: Netflix.

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Notable Quotes

• “At the end of the day it’s going to be a stock picker’s market.” — Bill Baruch [02:11]
• “Stagflation… would be really scary for the market. That would be when you’re losing jobs and inflation keeps going.” — Steve Weiss [05:06]
• “Nothing good happens under the 200 day… We really do need to catch a bid there.” — Bryn Tockington [07:04]
• “It’s come down to an old-fashioned just cash at the moment.” — Bill Baruch [09:12]
• “If your timeframe is a year… you’re going to do pretty well. But if you’re going to be anxious and worry about it, wait a little bit.” — Steve Weiss [12:21]
• “We are a very services cap light economy that is not so reliant on other countries.” — Bryn Tockington [17:32]
• “I do… like the financials actually. … Loosening capital requirements are going to be major for the banks in terms of buybacks.” — Steve Weiss [22:40]
• “This [Super Micro] headline is way more than just a headline. It just reads so poorly on the company.” — Bryn Tockington [26:59]
• “With Tesla… this is a great name to sell calls… there’s weakness right now.” — Bryn Tockington [31:19]
• “Miners are a core position… but I think we’re in a secular bull market in metals.” — Bill Baruch [37:03]
• “When you own Baba… you only own the revenue flows…. At any moment they could say, ‘You can’t list your ADR.’” — Steve Weiss [46:20]

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Key Timestamps by Segment

• Market Overview & War Impact: 01:14–08:58
• Safe Havens / Cash Discussion: 08:58–10:56
• Buying the Dip & Stock Picker’s Market: 10:56–13:59
• Industrials, Financials, Stagflation: 13:59–18:22
• Labor & Consumer Health: 18:22–19:32
• Bank Capital, Regulation, Private Credit: 19:32–24:30
• Super Micro, Dell, GE Vernova: 26:33–29:48
• Tesla & Netflix: 29:48–33:26
• Metals Meltdown: 36:45–39:08
• Emerging Markets & China: 42:33–47:06
• Final Trades: 47:14

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

Panelists express caution, favoring cash and selective buying into weakness. Consensus is that while there are opportunities, the overall technical backdrop and geopolitical crosscurrents warrant deliberate, tactical moves, with patience for longer-term investors. Energy and select industrials/tech are preferred sectors, financials are under review, and metals are considered a future opportunity after the current washout.

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For listeners:
This episode provides clear tactical guidance—raise cash, remain nimble, and don’t chase. Keep watch on geopolitical events, rate expectations, and technical levels. When things settle or if valuations become especially compelling, opportunities in both US and select global names could present themselves.

Transcript

[Keith Lansford]

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

[Leslie Picker]

Thank you Carl and welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Leslie Picker in for Scott Wapner. Today, front and center this hour, the road ahead for stocks as The S&P 500 attempts to avoid its longest weekly losing streak in a year. Investment committee is standing by with their playbooks. Joining me now for the hour, Bill Baruch, Steve Weiss and Bryn Tockington. Let's get a quick check on the market at this hour. You can see the Dow down about half a percent, the S&P down point 8%. In the NASDAQ, the clear laggard here along with the Russell 2000 down more than 1% for each of those. And of course the S and P pacing for the fourth down week and the longest losing streak since March. A lot has been made guys about, you know, we're three weeks into the war in the Middle East. The S and P hasn't moved that much considering all the geopolitical headlines that we have been seeing. What do you think is the reason for that and do you think that there is something that would create a bigger drawdown in the S and P?

[Bill Baruch]

Yeah, I want to see how we come out of the week or finish the week here with the triple witching. I'd like to see the market hold ground, not really extend itself below the 200 day moving average that we broke yesterday. The QS also closed below the 200 day moving average. You know there's a, there's a lot going on with the money flows and I think that's really what one of the big issues is here. The, the war, the Hormuz blockage, it's, it's really moved, it's put a halt on money flows. And I think that's on top of the private credit fears is compounded things right now. Now I do think that there is some things to hang your hat on. I mean there's been good earnings, about 73% repeats. Information technology stood out. Energy has standard stood out. We're, we're overweight energy in our portfolios and I like that. And really at the end of the day it's going to be a stock pickers market. I know that sounds cliche, but there's names that have been just, just bludgeoned this year that have brought some opportunity at this point. But there's also names that some downside risk across the market broadly in sectors. If things that we're seeing right now with the war and the money flows persist.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah. And energy the key bright spot in today's market, that sector up about 1.1%. And Steve, I'm curious. So we've got, we've talked a lot about geopolitics, a lot about the private credit fears and then there's also some tightening happening and we were expecting a slew of rate cut. Now at least in the, the market it's pricing in, you know, potentially even a hike at this point in time as you have the backdrop of fears about inflation, oil and what geopolitics could do there. What do you make of, of that notion and do you think that the equity market is reacting in sympathy with that?

[Steve Weiss]

First, I want to go back to your first question to ask Bill, where you say that the market's not off, the SP is not off that much. And that's great if you're an index investor only, but if you're a stock depending upon your portfolio, there's been significant carnage, you know, correction territory and even more so you can take a look at some of the larger cap tech names. You know, there's Meta that's down significantly. Caterpillar is down significantly. Now Caterpillar was at arguably, and I said this before, maybe overvalued, you know, but, but it would grow into. The valuation point is that that narrative doesn't apply if you invest in stocks because there's been real carnage there. Now going to your question now. Yeah, I mean, you know, if you look at when the markets had big moves, it's been because of global easing, right. A combination of Monetary policy everywhere. Now we're looking at the other way. So there's some real concerns here. If you take a look what's happened to the yield curve, we're seeing a flattening of it. So. So, look, you can use stagflation, which I've been talking about for a few weeks, as a possibility. That'd be really scary for the market. That would be when you're losing jobs and inflation keeps going. So the Fed sort of frozen because they can't help you on the job side by cutting rates because you've got inflation. So inflation is a real concern. The longer this goes on in terms of straight of Hormuz closed, then the worst going to get. So the volatility, which I think we'd all been expecting coming into the market now, is sadly a downward skew. So I still don't see why you'd want to put money in here into the market. These levels, and I've been consistent with that because it's catching a falling knife. So I just say this. So where, you know, the not getting short had been the right thing to do because while the war was going on, because any moment in time, Trump can declare victory and say, we're done pulling out. Now with the straight of Hormuz, it has another complication, and that complication is not just opening the strait, but still leaving Iran in a position where they can do this again.

[Angelica Peoples]

Right.

[Steve Weiss]

So until you really eradicate the threat for all future times, you know, for now and beyond, you really can't pull out. So that keeps us there longer. It may put boots on the ground and none of that is good for the market.

[Leslie Picker]

Well, it's interesting brand because Pippa Stevens was on last hour and she was saying that the futures market is implying, at least for oil, that this, this war won't last very long, that it's actually trading $20 below today's prices for crude. So, you know, how do you think about the various markets and the likelihood of a protracted war in the Middle east, which is something that actually David Solomon addressed in his annual shareholder letter today, as it pertains to what it means for deal activity? There's just so much up in the air with regard to the war and what it means for various markets. Which one do you put the most stock into in terms of its likelihood of predicting the length of this war?

[Bryn Tockington]

I mean, I think we have all eyes are on oil prices. And so, I mean, I think oil prices, whether it's in the future spot or today, they're Incredibly elevated than where they were today three months ago. And so as we're trying to in the US have rates come down, we're trying to get rate cuts, keep the economy strong. You know, right now we're getting the opposite. With yields like the 10 year almost at 440, you would think with a flight to safety, you would have yields falling, but because of these inflationary feel inflationary fears, yields are going higher. And so I mean, to me the big catalyst is, is oil prices, which to Steve's point on Iran, this is not Venezuela, this is Iran. I think this is existential for the leadership in Iran. They don't seem to want to go away. A new person continues to pop up. And so I do think this is here with us for a while in terms of the markets. The US can obviously handle this exponentially better than any other country because we have so much oil and natural gas just domestically. And so when it comes down to like the global impact, I think that's why you'll continue to see emerging markets international come down because we know they're much more sensitive. They're all importers of oil because they, they said they were bad. And we're going to go do windmills and solar panels which don't really work as we're seeing. And so I just think the jury's still out. I will say, you know, there's a good adage, nothing good happens under the 200 day. And with the NASDAQ and the S and P both just slightly below that, we really do need to catch a bid there because I just think that puts that technical pressure where you're just going to have this, this continued pressure of how far do we go under the 200 day. So I think the volatility is here to stay and it looks like oil prices are here to stay higher as well, which is not positive for the markets in the short term.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, technical elements, fundamental elements. Bill, I'm curious, what's the safe haven play in this environment? Obviously, investors don't like bonds, gold is selling off here. Is there a place where you can kind of feel protected in this environment?

[Bill Baruch]

Yeah, metals have had a really tough week and that's part of the the where when global trade is taking place, where assets are getting parked and there's been a push away from using the US assets, US as a, as a place to park those assets amid the trade. Now the trade that is, that is pushed it towards gold. And we've seen the trade really tighten. We're not seeing, we're not seeing anything happen with passage the straits of Hormuz. So gold has been selling off really, really sharply. I still like the case for gold. There's some technical damage there but really it's come to an old fashioned just cash at the moment if you know because I think if you have cash opportunity is going to present itself and in time like this. Now we're not overweight cash from weight. The way we look at it we have about four and a half percent cash in our main portfolios. Typically with some of this going on we would have closer to 8 to 10% cash. But we've used, and that's where we were about a month ago, we use that cash to, to buy software at levels lower than where it is now like ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Microsoft, Oracle. And so I think those were. There's opportunity that's going to present itself and I think having cash over the next couple of months you're going to find those opportunities and that might really be the best way to, to be parking it at the moment because there is risk in bonds and we keep our, we keep our duration around five years, not more than seven because there is risk in the inflationary environment. If inflation, we saw the PI data, we've seen what the CPI is sort of bubbling a little bit and if we continue to see the, the global trade locked up and supply chain disruptions, inflation is going to continue to pick up and that's going to hurt your bond portfolio. So right now it may just be cash being the best place to park your. Park your money.

[Leslie Picker]

Steve, you mentioned stagflation, the S word.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Leslie Picker]

And I'm curious against that backdrop how much further does the market need to fall for it to be a buying opportunity en masse? I ask this because bank of America's Michael Hartnett writing, you know, global markets need to fall another 3 to 5% to trigger a big buy. Do you think it needs to fall more than that or does that make sense to you?

[Steve Weiss]

Again, I don't know what that means global markets because each, because I'm, I'm a stock investor, right. If I, if I hedge or like right now I'm hedge with some Q's, nowhere near enough shorts and Qs but to me I just don't know what to do. I don't know what to do with a statement like that. Right. So and when it's safe to buy really depends upon your time frame. So there's no doubt in my mind if you buy or a little down my mind I should say that if you buy now, a year from now with the right companies, not the ones who are still trading on dreams, you'll be in pretty good shape. So those will be higher than they are right now.

[Leslie Picker]

What does that mean? Right company is not the ones trading on dreams.

[Steve Weiss]

Well, you know, I think there are some that still have inflated valuations. I'm not going to go through them, but there are some that are clearly some more Windex come out sales and those. So momentum is pretty much dead now across the board and if I look at my screen I've just got a few that are, that are green tickers and I don't even know why they are but I'd say that you can also buy stocks that have been through the wars that because of idiosyncratic events that they've gotten crushed, Netflix being one. So. But then again I look at Paramount and Paramount, even though that's taking a pretty big hit, I'm actually short, small Paramount for a trading position because to me it's still overvalued with seven times, you know, seven turns of debt on. So. So the bottom line is you can buy now, never buy with impunity. But if your timeframe is a year, two years, three years, five years, you're going to do pretty well. But if you're going to be anxious and worry about it, wait a little bit.

[Bill Baruch]

You mentioned Caterpillar last comments and how it's been hit and a lot of the industrials you're seeing some of them come, come off. Yeah, I think the valuation in some of those industrials got a little ahead of itself. I think it's a Caterpillar post trial for that. I think it's a great place to be looking amid maybe whenever this market starts to find some footing there's some really great opportunities within their name like Mass Tech. MTZ has, is still trading basically at all time highs. So there's some really great themes within industrials and so you want to just kind of, and I did make the comment cash is the best place but I mean we're still, I mean we're in fully, pretty fully invested. Four percent cash, four and a half percent cash. On the sidelines I'm looking for opportunities and as this sort of kind of we work through this, this, the blockage, the uncertainty, the potential stagflationary fears which by the way Powell did put the rest, he did say he's not worried about stagflation right now. You want to be able to find.

[Steve Weiss]

Well he couldn't come out and Say he is worried about it but Mark would have been down 3,000 points. Right.

[Bill Baruch]

Well two, there's some truth there but

[Steve Weiss]

there's a lot of truth there.

[Bill Baruch]

Still thinks this as a is a one time price of impact. But this is where you want to pick your pick names now to what you said. Find the good companies, the names you like, names that can fit within your playbook and be ready to pull the trigger on them with some cash that you have on the sidelines.

[Steve Weiss]

One, Bob is another name. So Bob has gotten crushed because the earnings were weak. They miss completely. But I own it for next year. Maybe I bought it too early. Obviously I bought it too early and I added to too early.

[Keith Lansford]

But if you look at it next

[Steve Weiss]

year it's a low to mid teens multiple and the cloud growth is going to be tremendous there. So. So that's one that's been through the war which is why it's holding up today because it got crushed yesterday.

[Bryn Tockington]

Yeah.

[Leslie Picker]

We'll have more on Chinese tech coming up. I want to circle back on stagflation though because even though Chair Powell may not have expressed concern vocally about this, the Wall Street Journal is today. And Brent, I know you are a big investor in financials and the Wall Street Journal has a piece about how stagflation puts banks in a vise. What do you make of the backdrop for banks right now? Because you do have the curve, you know that steeper curve obviously better for banks. That's, that's not happening right now. You have some capital regulation that would be in any other market a tailwind. But there are some concerns about capital markets activity and what geopolitics means for that. And financials are the worst performing sector year to date. So is this a time to buy or do you think the headwinds are too great at this point in time?

[Bryn Tockington]

So the financials are trading like we're going into a recession. Right. They've just done terrible. I get they had a great year last year but they're just trading like whether you look at Visa, which really isn't even a financial, it's a tech company. Capital One, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, the charts all look the same and they're all very different companies. I do think the reprieve from Basel 3 where for the viewers I think the bottom line is the capital requirements will free up around $175 billion. And so I think there's going to be definitely once this, this Iran if we get a settling and people are thinking about individual names which Steve and Bill have been talking about, look at Goldman or Morgan Stanley, especially Goldman, if they can take those dollars that they didn't have to have in reserves and actually put it in trading, that to me is going to be a flywheel. So I think there's going to be really good opportunity. The point is like if you're going to go invest right now in financials, I really think you have to dollar cost average because I agree with what but with what Steve and Bill are saying. We are in this below the 200 day, but I think this is going to be where a really good opportunity to buy great companies and the market's pricing in a recession. And also on stagflation, it's like we haven't had stagflation since the 70s with a very different economy. I just feel like that, that that word gets thrown about. In the 70s we had real stagflation right now. Yeah, yields are higher, growth is lower, but our economy is so resilient. I think this is just going to be a narrative that passes very quickly and we're not going to have this, it's not possible, I don't think, to have a stagflationary environment that we had in the 70s because the economy's construct is so different.

[Leslie Picker]

What is so different about the construct of the economy? I would imagine some of it has to do with tech innovation and productivity. But as we do think of the seventies as a corollary. Given what's going on in Iran and what's going on with oil prices, how should we be, you know, sleeping better at night knowing that this time might be different?

[Bryn Tockington]

Well, right in the 70s we relied on the Middle east for oil, first of all. So we're energy independent and we had huge manufacturing. And so we all know we're a very manufacturing light economy. Trump is trying to change that for the better. But I think we are very services cap light economy that is not so reliant on other countries. And so I just think between our energy independence and the strong tech and services in the economy, we're just the construct is just nothing even remotely similar than we had in the mid-70s.

[Steve Weiss]

And I agree with that. And I don't really think stagflation is going to be a factor we have to deal with. It's really the direction towards it that can be scary. But I don't think we get into stagflation area environment. And it's also different 70s because the labor remains tight.

[Leslie Picker]

Right.

[Steve Weiss]

When you go through all the statistics, fewer people are leaving their jobs There are fewer rifts, you know, reduction in force. And I think that's going to remain constant. And everybody remembers the companies, remember how difficult it was to hire. So I while you've seen particularly the big cap tech companies get rid of the excess in labor and I do believe you'll see I cause a lot of labor displacement, we're still at such a level where that consumers are working now you can argue about their pocketbook, the share that can go to items away from energy, away from food, away from necessities, still live two thirds of the economy, 2/3 of people rather live paycheck to paycheck. So that's a big issue. So I'm not sure even though you've seen some retail stocks bounce like Dax or even Lulu take a little bounce off bottom, I'm not sure that's where I'd want to be. So I'm just not the frame of mind. And in general I like geopolitical issues as a buying opportunity. They've always been buying opportunity. This one seems a little different because of cuts of oil in the strait of one.

[Bill Baruch]

If you look at the Fed's ACP earlier in the week, they did move their GDP forecasts up and yes, they did move up their PC forecast a touch as well. Waller was on the network earlier this morning with Steve Liesman and he made a great point that, that you know, some of the fears if you look at factoring them in, well, why isn't that inflation above 3%? So I kind of took it that, you know, although, although there is a little bit of a hawkish undertone within that last meeting we've had. Those who want to, those who can be found on the dovish side are still looking through as a positive lens right now even though those rate cuts are getting pushed out. So there is that sort of one time price adjustment that is still in the narrative. And if we get through some, you know, the impact of the war over the next couple of next couple of months, through this next quarter, you know, and again these banks to go back on that they're trading off of, off of what these growth forecasts are going to be and private credit being tightened up, I'm looking forward to hear from a name like Goldman Sachs in the next earnings report down the road. It's trading at the 200 day moving average. It's trading at some really good support. We did sell it February 19, but I think we'd have to hear more from the banks, see more from the data over the coming months. And I Don't think the situation is as dire overall as, as the headlines would tell you. So I remain optimistic down here. It's just again, you don't to want, want to, you don't want to see a bad technical close today.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah. And Brent, a big, a big part of why the banks have sold off, of course, is capital markets. And then you have Goldman CEO David Solomon with his annual letter this morning talking about how he expects activity to accelerate. And a lot of that has to do with the regulatory backdrop. And I'm just curious how much stock you put in that. And does what we've seen with private credit pose a risk to that narrative given that the backlog for 2026 was supposed to be all about the sponsor activity and here you have some just broader consternation about that whole area.

[Bryn Tockington]

Yeah, well, I think as it relates to the capital markets, I mean from what I hear, IPOs are getting pulled or getting delayed. So that, that's not, that's not great. So that can change very quickly. I think as it relates to private credit, you know, I continue to go back to this all started with Tricolor and First Brands, which were not private credit issues, by the way. Those were bank issues and fraud, which were not private credit. And so I think that the liquidations, we'll have to see what the impact of that is if that actually impacts sponsor back lending and deals to get done. What we'll see when these numbers kind of flesh out what the actual dollar amount is. But I do think that, you know, David Solomon's talking about green shoots looking forward, that would be my base case. But I will say the Iran conflict, Iran war, we can't just dismiss it because it's very hard for me to figure out how this ends because President Trump I don't think can just end it. I think the Iranians want to have to end it as well. And that to me is where, you know, investors are unease because we all understand, we all understand, understand that unique dynamic that we're in that I don't think the Iranian government's just going to give up.

[Leslie Picker]

Right.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I like the financials actually. And Britain made the point twice both in that comment and the one before the new capital requirements. Loosening capital requirements are going to be major for the banks in terms of buybacks.

[Leslie Picker]

And why didn't they react yesterday? Is it already priced in? Are they waiting for the 90 day comment period?

[Steve Weiss]

The news has been talked about for a while.

[Zepbound Advertiser]

Right.

[Leslie Picker]

So I feel like the actual levels themselves were lower than most analysts were Expecting. They were expecting a slight increase in capital levels and they were actually a decrease.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. I just don't think it's the market where, you know, the traders there to, to drive it. Right. They're being tight, they're there. They've got more leverage on hedge funds than they've had in a long time as of last week. So. And I think it's not a near term event. Right. You just don't buy in. Happens to go. We've got all the other head. When you've got all the headwinds in terms of private credit. I mean Goldman's out there raising right now funds for another private credit fund. So. So I think the fears are overstated. I think the weak underwriters are definitely going to suffer and but overall I don't really see it blowing up. I mean what causes these to blow up is a run in the bank typically.

[Bill Baruch]

I do fear the earnings being hampered by less lending within the private credit. That is a reason why we did sell Goldman Sachs. But you know, looking ahead, I think there is some excitement for the banks that can be bottled up and be ready to be seen in the later part of this year. Regionals as well are something that I think could really benefit. We really look at that space very closely because we're very underweight, the banks and financials in general and we'd like to get more capital to work there. Worship, you know, if he gets and takes the chair as soon as he may, some of his policies. Policies are good for, for steepening the yield curve back up which, which we've seen kind of come. Come out of the market over the, over the last couple of weeks and it could be a very good positive tailwind for those regional banks too.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, absolutely. Guys, thank you so much. We're going to take a break. Up next, fraud, smuggling and a multibillion dollar cross border scheme. The shocking new allegations driving a 27% drop in our chart of the day details. Next,

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

Thy ticket, lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card.

[Bill Baruch]

They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs.

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times.

[Leslie Picker]

With the times.

[AT&T Business Wireless Advertiser (Secondary)]

You're playing the loot.

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?

[Bill Baruch]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places

[Zepbound Advertiser]

that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

[Keith Lansford]

This episode brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Scott Wapner]

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[Leslie Picker]

Welcome back to Halftime. Let's get to our chart of the day. Super micro plunging after US Prosecutors charged three company employees with smuggling in video chips to China. Those shares are currently down about 28%. Dell shares though, well they're popping on the news. Barron says the indictments could be a big win for Dell if they turn some customers away from Supermicro. Bren, you own Dell. How big of a deal is this?

[Bryn Tockington]

Oh, I think it's a huge deal, right. I mean the co founder is also implicated. So it's actually kind of the craziest way story. I mean I think Dell has continued to take market share. You know, Dell obviously has the laptops which are, which are pressured, but their infrastructure services group, that's really one of the key components to the whole all the factories, the data centers and so I think if you're underwriting, underwriting a new investment, I think, I mean Michael, Dell is like one of the best in the business. I think this is going to be a great catalyst for their infrastructure services group to continue to continue to take market share from Supermicro because I think this is, this headline is way more than just a headline. It just reads so poorly on the company.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, it's a remarkable story, one to certainly follow. Let's turn to some other committee stocks that are on the move today. GE Vernova up close to 9% this week. The US and Japan inking a deal to build nuclear reactors as part of a larger power project. Weiss, this is one you own.

[Steve Weiss]

What do you mean? I do and it's what I look at every day and say this one seems a little expensive but yet, you know, it holds up pretty well. So some there unfortunately it's not a core position but it has done pretty well. The other one that I own as a trading position, it's very Small because I did sell some but I got stopped out It's FTAI which is just gotten crushed in this and I think crushed unfairly and way too far. So to me it's a buying opportunity but in this kind of market I'm not really stepping in to add to it.

[Bill Baruch]

I think there's a lot within this sort of infrastructure broad play I mean GV I like the name I agree it's been expensive I wish I would it from. From a lot lower but you know we're tacking it through I mentioned mass tech earlier we own a vert of you got. We got KMI and there's other other space others within this space of infrastructure and power generation we want CCJ Kamiko which is down with with commodities over the past couple of days week or two but there's a lot of ways to attack it and I like the name but I wish we had more

[Leslie Picker]

Brent, how are you exposed here?

[Bryn Tockington]

I own G for Nova. I own Dell I mean so I own energy companies I own in video I think that with these companies if you listen to G for Nova I mean their backlog is huge. So yes it's an expensive stock but I think it's expensive for a reason. They definitely have line of sight. It seems like this company would be over $900 per share if you weren't in this quagmire of a market right now and I think once the bull market does continue once it builds back up that G over nowhere will definitely be a winner and I think it will easily have a 9 handle once the market starts picking back up.

[Leslie Picker]

Tesla down a little bit today as well down about 1% it was cut to $119 from 1:33 reiterated reduce at HSBC obviously that's well below where the stock is currently trading. They say sales likely to only get worse. Full self driving unlikely to provide deliverance. Bill, you own it.

[Bill Baruch]

And we recently added to it too. You know we added on the heels of in the you know a week or two ago a week or so ago when, when there has already been some selling after the initiation of this, this conflict in the Middle east it's now broken below the 200 day moving average like a lot of names in the indices but it's trading into bigger support and we look at Tesla and the reason why we added to it was looking at it more of a. A risk on play and a lot of support at 400 and just below now we're really kind of decisively below that but we're still trading into that September level. I think from a robotic standpoint a pure AI play the self driving I've been saying it in South Korea which was the last one they added I believe is the numbers are starting to look really well there. So I think there's a lot to be excited about. But you need the broader market needed more of a risk on across the board that is is going to really drive this. I think it can be a leader to the upside but it is again it is support charts not broken here but doesn't look great like a lot of names that are out there.

[Leslie Picker]

Bryn, with oil prices where they are, you own Tesla as well. Do they get a benefit as an EV maker from you know as gas prices continue to be higher as people consider what type of car to buy?

[Bryn Tockington]

No, I mean the tax credit going away really hurt. I think all of the EV makers. So I don't, I don't, I don't think so at this point. I mean I think with Tesla though this is a great name to sell calls. I was able to, I had 470 calls, was able to close those out. I sold just yesterday sold some more calls, May calls at 420. And so there's so much option premium on this name. I do think there's weakness right now. It's interesting where you hear, you know Open AI and Anthropic are in the news every day. I feel like Elon's been really, really quiet recently, recently on their initiatives. And so I think once Space X is going to ipo, are they going to put all the companies together? I think some excitement will get back in the name but right now it's not there And I agree with Bill, it's technically a little bit tough. So I'm just going to continue to sell calls and collect that premium because I do think it's probably 4, 420 to me is probably a peak until we get some new news on something outside of just car sales.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, month to date down about 7% there. Let's talk Netflix reiterated to out for outperform with $115 targeted. Bernstein, you got the Peaky Blinders movie this weekend. That's on my plans for the weekend to watch that great Rotten Tomatoes rating. But in terms of how to trade the stock, Weiss, you own it?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I think you own it. I don't think you trade it. Look, if the market were induced what it's doing, I think the stock would have broken 100 because that's where the bounce was going. And you've got I'm glad they didn't win Warner. I think that would not have been good for them. They would have tolerated it. They would have weathered it. But look, I think well played, but let's let Paramount overpay for, let them not be able to put out new content because they've got to pay down their debt. So to me, it's the same same old story. Meantime, Netflix continues to acquire libraries as well and produce new content. So they're, they're just the winner here, far and away. And the stock's not, you know, not overvalued. So like quite a bit feels like

[Leslie Picker]

the consensus view for the broader shareholder base of Netflix Right now. Let's get to Angelica Peoples with a CNBC news update. Angelica?

[Bryn Tockington]

Hey, Leslie.

[Angelica Peoples]

Well, Pinterest CEO Bill Reddy is calling on world leaders to ban social media for children under 16, writing we need a clear standard, no social media for teens under 16, backed by real enforcement and accountability for mobile phone operating systems and the apps that run on them. He called Australia's social media ban for children a quote, bold answer and said that other countries should follow their lead. Actor Chuck Norris has died. His family shared the news on social media, saying that he died peacefully Thursday surrounded by his family. Norris was a veteran and martial arts champion who was best known for his role in the long running show Walker Texas Ranger. He was 86 years old. And CBS News announced a new round of layoffs this morning. CBS News executives told staff that it would be a, quote, difficult day at the company. Roughly 6% of employees are said to be impacted. And this is the second round of layoffs at the news organization in the last six months. And of course, this comes as editor in chief Barry Weiss revamps the network's broadcast news division. So another tough day in media. Leslie, back over to you.

[Leslie Picker]

Yep, absolutely, Angelica. We're just talking about all the changes in media and how it's impacting the market. Appreciate it. Still ahead, more on the metals meltdown. Meltdown gold on track for its worst week in six years. Bill Baruch runs a medal strategy and how he's playing the pullback. Halftime is back in Tune

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card.

[Bill Baruch]

They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs?

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getteth with the times, with the tines.

[AT&T Business Wireless Advertiser (Secondary)]

You're playing the loot.

[Jennifer of Coolidge]

Yeah. And it sounds pretty good, right?

[Bill Baruch]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places

[Zepbound Advertiser]

that take credit cards nationwide Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report this episode

[Keith Lansford]

is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Landsford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Scott Wapner]

AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.

[Bryn Tockington]

Welcome back.

[Leslie Picker]

Gold is on track for its worst week since March of 2020. But a new note from UBS saying it might be time to buy the dip in the mining stocks. Bill, you own a number of these in the space. GDX First, Majestic Silver, Barrick Mining, Equinox Gold. I mean, do you agree with this, this notion?

[Bill Baruch]

Yeah, I mean we believe miners are a core position within a portfolio. And what we're seeing here is, is essentially it's been a cliff dive. The bullish percentage index has gone from above 90 to down to about 4%. That means about 4% of these names are trading in bullish point and figure patterns. It's, it's ugly now. It doesn't mean that this is going to be, you know, a rebound right out of nowhere. I think it's going to, it could be a lull to kind of, you know, wipe out some of these longs a bit. Doesn't mean that it needs to fall out like it has this week either. But a lot of these names are closing on the 200 day moving average just as a point of reference. And that 200 day moving average also lines up with where they really started taking off heading into the autumn of last year. So like CD Co War, AEM and you know, another one looking at Newmont, those are top three holdings in our mining portfolio. I love the names. They're, they're, they're the people running the, the chief executives, the people running these businesses are terrific. The first free cash flow growth. You're talking about free cash flow growth in core like 2000% year over year. So there's, there is a lot of things to be excited about in the Space, but it is a commodity and commodities. So we have these, these boom and busts. I think we're in a secular bull market in metals and I think that there is going to be higher to go. You have to work through this. So we have about 10% cash in our portfolio that we're going to look to get to work here over the coming weeks.

[Leslie Picker]

When you own bhp, what kind of catalyst do you think the space needs to really move higher to the upside?

[Bryn Tockington]

You know, the retail investor has gone all in on metals and so I do think this is a healthy correction. I do think higher prices are here to stay. I mean, but if you look at I used to own Freeport, got called away. I just think, I agree with, I agree with, with Bill. I think you're in a secular bull market. But you do have to understand the retail environment investor has been all in. And so to me it just pushed prices well above where they should have been being that retail. And then I feel like the hedge funds follow retail and so I think that needs to wash itself out a little bit more before the uptrend continues.

[Leslie Picker]

All right, up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday midday word. We're back after this. We are back on half time. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Mike Santoli is here with his midday word. It's a busy Friday.

[Mike Santoli]

A lot going on.

[Leslie Picker]

Going on.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Mike Santoli]

I mean and a lot of these markets are kind of trending toward possible decision points or maybe some, some thresholds that people didn't want to see breach. So obviously The S&P 500 kind of playing with fire. We're down at the bottom, bottom of this range. It's lasted for about six months or so. I can sympathize with those who say this has been a little bit too orderly. You kind of, the market is kind of sagged in this very steady but unhurried way for about a few weeks. On the other hand, it's been going on a while. The average stock has really pulled back quite a bit. You've definitely done damage to the longer term trend. But I understand why the market doesn't want to walk away from, from the prospect that we've kind of gotten a little bit oversold. And if we get any whisper of some kind of de escalation, some relief on energy that we are due for some kind of a snapback. So I think that's the tricky piece of it going into a weekend when of course everybody wants to be hedged up. Everybody kind of is hedged up. If you Actually look at treasury volume right now. It's screaming higher because of what yields are doing. So I think it's, it's an interesting and very kind of hazardous spot. But on a net basis you're down like 6% from all time highs in the S and P. And I think a lot of people might be surprised by that.

[Leslie Picker]

How much of that orderliness has to do with just the evolution toward less easing or at least the market's expectation for less easing this year in terms of fewer rate cuts.

[Mike Santoli]

I think everyone is trying to sort through because really if you go from a few months ago, the narrative has really moved a long way from we're going to run this economy hot and we're going to get rate cuts and the AI boom is not going to quit. Right. That was the story coming into the year.

[Leslie Picker]

Oh yeah.

[Mike Santoli]

Every bit of those has basically been kind of unwound in terms of how the story is going to go right now. So I think yields are kind of driving the story at the moment. I am, I do think you have to pay attention to banks firm right here. A lot of the things that went down the first and the most are not getting hit as hard right now. And so maybe that says the process is far along long in terms of, you know, this corrective action. We are coming on an interesting valuation point to 20 times forward earnings for the S and p. It was 23 a couple of months ago, a few months ago. You haven't traded below 20 forward this bull market for this three year bull market except for two weeks around, around Liberation Day. Is that a floor? Is that kind of false hope? I think those are the things we're going to be thinking about going into the weekend.

[Leslie Picker]

And you mentioned the banks and financials, the worst performing sector year to date. Obviously they had a huge, huge run last year. So it makes sense that you might see a little bit of a taking

[Mike Santoli]

and you'd want it. But I think it's interesting that you know, or at least I'm not ignoring the fact that they're firm in here and they're not necessarily taking an excuse today to take another leg down. They got to prove a lot here. I mean it has to continue. It can't just be a one day blip. But if I were really worried about credit, I think that's another thing that's right on the brink. Investment grade spreads are like 90 something basis points over treasuries above 1% above treasuries. That's kind of where things get dicey. So Again, we're, we're on the border.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, we've seen a widening out, although there was some data yesterday from Fitch that private credit default rate actually ticked down in the trailing 12 months.

[Mike Santoli]

I mean it's a small absolute number of defaults. So it's kind of like month by month it can move around.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, I think it was like 5.4% on a trailing 12 months basis. So we'll see. But it's interesting certainly to watch as a microcosm of what the market is expecting for the broader economy. Mike, thank you. All right, up next, break out your passport because we are going global where the committee is finding the best opportunities overseas. Half time. We'll be right back. Welcome back. Emerging markets under pressure again today. The EEM ETF on pace for its worst month since September 2022. Bill, you want it? What are the key driving forces here? There's a lot at play with the dollar and what's going on with yields and even the impact from the AI

[Bill Baruch]

boom rising dollar is certainly something in the, the impact of, of the conflict in the Middle East. The lockup of trade and money flows is, has been made it really tough. We like this, this ETF to, to fit within a tactical ETF portfolio that we own that a couples in against our diversified basket of stocks. So in the main portfolio 10% is tactical and we have this is about a 2, 2% against the whole portfolio, about 20% of that. And I think you get a great diversification. You have the memory names Hynix and Samsung which actually have rebounded really well. But there's, there's, there's financials exposure, there's other things in here that are, that are struggling. I again I like it from looking international but this, there's only opportunity that rises. You know, just like anything here that we're looking at in the market in general. We have to get past this conflict in the Middle East. We have to have a little bit more understanding where the trajectory of global trade is going to and you'll see this respond better out of it. I don't think the story is done now. I do like US Stocks more than the emerging markets coming out of such a, you know, understanding of around that global trade question. But I think you get a great diversification through here and there's those memory names are front and center. I've talked about the show before. You're getting some solid exposure to those memory names within this portfolio. Within this, within this etf Brandis emergency

[Leslie Picker]

serve as the diversification play that you're looking for right now?

[Bryn Tockington]

Well, I think that as we as everyone talks about the S and P is so concentrated. If you actually listen to Micron's numbers this week, they were blowout. And if you want to be really concentrated and you think memory names are still have room to run, then look no further than the South Korean index. You can buy EW, Y, SK, Hynix and Samsung make up 45% of that index. And so it has come down. Actually it was up about 60% year to date. It's come down quite a bit. And so if you think that trade has, has, has some more days to go, EWI could be a great way to be a diversifier into other memory names in Korea.

[Leslie Picker]

Yeah, I've been thinking too about just the interconnection between the US and China. That was another part of, of Solomon's letter that this morning. And then there's this news that Unitary is planning a Shanghai ipo, which is a human humanoid robot company. And they're looking to raise about $610 million in Shanghai. And it used to be that companies like that would list here, but of course there's been a lot of consternation about that. The SEC has been kind of looking into that. Steve, how are you thinking about I own baba?

[Steve Weiss]

With some trepidation. I've been pretty. I've sued a number of Chinese companies for appraisal rights. You know, when you own baba, when you own any of those adr, you only own, you know, the revenue flows. You only own the flows, you don't. Right. Variable Interest Entity.

[Leslie Picker]

Yep.

[Steve Weiss]

Right. So that's all you know. And China's gone back and forth. At least they did until about five years ago. They said, we're okay with these. They challenged. But at any moment in time they could say, you know what? You can't list on, you know, you can't list your ADR. They're domiciled. ADRs domicile in the Caymans. We're pulling them back. So there is some risk there. But in terms of robotics, Humanoids complete commodity business, so I wouldn't invest.

[Leslie Picker]

All right, final trades coming up on halftime. It's time now for final trades.

[Bryn Tockington]

Bryn dollar cost average. Cbre Weiss.

[Steve Weiss]

Cash.

[Bill Baruch]

Phil, Netflix.

[Leslie Picker]

All right, everybody, thank you for watching the Exchange with Brian Sullivan. Starting right now, you've been listening to

[Scott Wapner]

CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Snoring Gasping during sleep?

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