State of the Record Run 6/22/26

Summary

Halftime Report CNBC Podcast Summary

Episode: State of the Record Run (June 22, 2026)

Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Stephanie Link, Joe Terranova, Jimmy Labenthal, Rob Seachern, Dominic Chu
Main Theme: The episode centers on the state of U.S. equities during an extended bull market—highlighting volatility in high-profile names like SpaceX post-IPO, sector rotations (notably in tech/software), the transformative power and investment themes around AI/data center infrastructure, and a discussion on the evolving wealth management industry.

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1. Episode Overview

This episode dives into the volatility following SpaceX’s high-profile IPO, broader market moves in tech and software, sector rotations, a surge in data center and power infrastructure spending, and the growing complexity of wealth management for ultra-high net worth clients. Notably, the panel debates Elon Musk’s influence, speculative fervor, and valuation risks, all while highlighting fresh opportunities and risks in power infrastructure and energy.

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2. Key Discussion Points and Insights

Market Update and Central Focus: SpaceX Volatility

• NASDAQ Under Pressure: The panel discusses weakness in the NASDAQ, specifically amidst volatility in recent IPO SpaceX, now down about 25% from recent highs after temporarily eclipsing Amazon in market cap.

• Stephanie’s SpaceX Buy:

  • Stephanie Link established a “small, 2% position” due to conviction in long-term growth but concerns about volatility.
  • Cites a massive "total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion" and SpaceX’s potential to "double gross margins and grow revenues 70% by 2030."
  • "Set it and forget it. Like this thing, I think I can own for 10, 15 years." (Stephanie Link, 02:08)

• Debt & Lockup Concerns:

  • Debate around SpaceX’s debt refinancing and how lockup expirations could create more volatility and possible downside.
  • Stephanie: “I have no problem with the debt offering at all. If it gives me an opportunity to buy this thing down 20% with the growth that I see over the long term...” (03:30)
  • “If it comes down to 135, the IPO price, I’ll buy more. Put a 3% position on.” (Stephanie Link, 04:39)

• Valuation and Speculation:

  • Jimmy remains skeptical due to “speculative fervor,” likening Elon Musk to “PT Barnum” and applying an “Elon discount” rather than a premium.
  • “How about if you get to $100 billion first? … At some point, rationality will ensue in both of these prices...” (Labenthal, 08:00–09:14)
  • Rob emphasizes the necessity of "dreamers," suggesting Musk’s vision has changed the world.

• Retail vs. Institutional Involvement:

  • Discussion referencing Canaccord’s note that SpaceX marks a “new chapter,” with greater retail involvement adding a “more dangerous layer of air” (instability) under high-beta tech, highlighting the speculative and sometimes fickle nature of retail flows. (Scott, 15:05)
  • Jimmy: “There are the true believers, the Elon acolytes...and there’s the other type of retail investor, and they’re far more speculative. They're the YOLOs, the HODL people, the diamond hands, and they’re fast and they go short as quickly as they go long.” (16:30)

Broader Market Rotation—Tech, Software, Semis

• Tech Underperformance:

  • Alphabet (Google) is down 7%—worst day since May 2025; Amazon headed for its worst month in years. Apple remains relatively unscathed.
  • Software stocks, notably Salesforce (down 14 days in a row), weak amidst a rotation away from tech megacaps.
  • Joe T.: “Microsoft’s down 17% so far this month. The Russell 2000...recorded another new all-time high. … I see this as a rotation.” (Joe Terranova, 11:43)

• Software vs. Semiconductors:

  • Palantir, Twilio, and other software names highlighted as struggling, while semis like KLA, Lam Research, Applied Materials are at 52-week highs; panel sees continued bifurcation. (12:32–13:49)
  • Joe owns Palantir, takes responsibility for adding Twilio "too high," considering cutting losses.

• Selective Opportunity in Software:

  • Stephanie Link: "You have to pick your spots...I think IBM is a screaming buy here, down as much as it is, given what he’s done to the business model. We haven’t even factored in quantum computing yet..." (14:28)

Power Infrastructure, Data Centers, and Energy

• Massive Growth in Data Centers/Power Needs:

  • Stephanie Link highlights a “data center gold rush”—with only 11,400 centers worldwide, U.S. needs to ramp to at least 30,000 by 2030. "Our grids are really old… That number needs to get to at least 30,000 by 2030."
  • Overweight names like Quanta Services, Vertiv, and GE Vernova—whose order backlogs and earnings are growing sharply.
  • “Every one of these companies absolutely blew away the earnings, the orders, the backlogs…” (Stephanie Link, 20:16)

• Utilities and Power as Bottleneck:

  • Discussion of hyperscalers’ (cloud/AI giants) need to secure reliable power as the ultimate bottleneck. Rob: “Power in my mind’s the ultimate undervalued beneficiary.” (23:37)

• Potential Bear Case:

  • If supply of power becomes much cheaper, the demand thesis for these stocks may not be as strong—panel acknowledges risk but consensus is it’s “early innings.”

• Energy Stocks & Sector Upgrades:

  • Diamondback Energy upgraded; discussion of continued shareholder discipline in Permian Basin oil producers.
  • Broader sector (energy) upgraded by analysts to overweight due to reasonable valuations, healthy earnings, and geopolitical insulation (Joe, Rob, Jimmy).
  • Jimmy: “Oil is going to be around $70 to $80 a barrel for the rest of the year.” (30:02)

Wealth Management & CNBC’s Elite Advisor List

• Spotlight on New Edge Wealth:
  • CNBC reveals its first-ever Elite Advisors list for top ultra-high-net-worth firms.
  • Rob Seachern (New Edge) explains the rise of wealth management: “Our involvement as a firm with CNBC I certainly think was a factor... The differentiating factor in our business really moves beyond investing, Scott—it’s into being a central source of truth.” (Robert Frank & Rob Seachern, 39:12–42:28)
  • Discussion on the private/public market access and the “central source of truth” role.

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3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On SpaceX, Speculation, and Musk:

• "Set it and forget it. Like this thing, I think I can own for 10, 15 years..." —Stephanie Link (02:08)
• “That speculative fervor is fueled by comments from Elon Musk, who I find to be too PT Barnum-esque for my liking...” —Jimmy Labenthal (08:00)
• “Thank God we have dreamers because they change the world... the very fact that he can build a field of dreams and actually achieve the things that he’s achieved.” —Rob Seachern (10:02)
• “If Elon Musk was not the CEO and founder, would you still buy the stock?” —Joe Terranova (17:29)
  “No, I don’t think so. Maybe it would just be like a 1% position.” —Stephanie Link (17:35)

On Market Rotation & Tech Weakness:

• “Microsoft’s down 17% so far this month. The Russell 2000... recorded another new all-time high. … I see this as a rotation and that potentially is challenging SpaceX.” —Joe Terranova (11:43)

On Data Centers and Power:

• “We don’t have enough power. Our grids are really old… That number [data centers] needs to get to at least 30,000 by 2030. … All these companies absolutely blew away the earnings, the orders, the backlogs…” —Stephanie Link (20:16)
• “Power in my mind is the ultimate undervalued beneficiary.” —Rob Seachern (23:37)

On Wealth Management:

• “The differentiating factor in our business really moves beyond investing, Scott...they come to us for organization ...when you’re a really large family and it’s really complex…" —Rob Seachern (39:31)

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4. Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------|--------------| | Market Opening & SpaceX Discussion | 01:19–06:49 | | SpaceX, Musk, and Speculation Debate | 06:49–11:43 | | Sector Rotation—Tech, Software, Semis | 11:43–15:05 | | Retail vs. Institutional, Canaccord Note | 15:05–17:29 | | Musk Dependency & Early IPO Analysis | 17:29–19:25 | | Power Demand, Data Centers, Infrastructure| 19:32–24:15 | | Energy Sector Upgrades | 27:23–30:35 | | Highlight: CNBC Elite Advisor List | 37:22–42:28 | | Market Recap w/ Mike Santoli | 43:08–45:49 | | Final Trades | 46:37–47:20 |

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5. Final Trades

• Rob Seachern: “Vistra—Continue to see power as a bottleneck and think they’re one of the best-positioned for that.” (46:37)
• Jimmy Labenthal: “CRH—Important materials company, should benefit from all the buildout.” (46:48)
• Stephanie Link: “Rockwell Automation—Automation is in very early innings as this company’s growing double digits with margin expansion.” (46:59)
• Joe Terranova: “Generac—Industrial name, bought two weeks ago, going to add more this afternoon.” (47:06)
• Stephanie Link: Reveals selling Netflix to fund her SpaceX position, pointing to recent Netflix underperformance. (47:11–47:18)

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Summary Takeaways:
This episode offers a comprehensive look at market volatility, hype and valuation risk in the wake of SpaceX’s record IPO, and ongoing sector rotations. The expert panel debates the merits of founder-led innovation (Musk) vs. price discipline, dissecting speculative undercurrents in tech. They elevate the power/data center infrastructure theme—deeming it the ultimate AI bottleneck—while also applauding unsung stalwarts in the energy patch. The episode concludes with a look at high-net-worth wealth management’s evolution, symbolized by CNBC’s new Elite Advisors list.

For Listeners:
If you missed the episode, this summary offers a detailed, nuanced breakdown of market sentiment, actionable themes in power and infrastructure, and a candid debate on the risks and rewards of visionary-led stocks—perfect for seasoned investors and market-watchers alike.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report.

[Dominic Chu]

Scott Wapner, front and center.

[Scott Wapner]

This hour, the state of stocks, investors watching the Iran talks. We're gearing up for Micron earnings as well. Midweek trading the markets today with the investment committee as always. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jimmy Labenthal, Rob Seachen, check the markets here. Told you what we are looking at today, but we are looking at a NASDAQ that is weak yet again. It is down more than 1%. I do want to focus on Space X because we're looking at three sessions in a row. This was after it briefly eclipsed Amazon in market cap, down about 25% from its high. I bring it up because we had talked several times with Stephanie Link, said she was interested. You're going to buy it? Might buy it maybe. Let's see what happens with the stock. It got down enough from the IPO that finally you said I'm a buy in.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah. And you did. And it's a 2% position. It's very small and it will remain that because it will be so volatile. I expect that. As you mentioned, it's down almost 25% from its highs, but it had rallied up 50% from the IPO price. So I expect volatility. I've said this many times since set it and forget it. Like this thing I think I can own for 10, 15 years. And it's because of the total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. This is also a company that has a chance to get revenues up 70% and double gross margins by 2030. And I've said it before, there's a lot of ways you can win on space. They have a 90% market share, a cost advantage. Launch costs are going to go from 14 million to 3 to 5 million over time. Starlink, they have 10 million customers. That is expected to get to almost 200 by 2030. And then of course, they're renting COMPUTE to both Google and Anthropic and I suspect others as well. Down the road, those two companies are spending $2 billion a month renting AI compute. So I know it's going to be volatile. I only want to make it 2% because I want to be able to sleep at night given the volatility. But I do have a lot of conviction in the long term.

[Scott Wapner]

What are you going to say?

[Joe Terranova]

I just wanted to ask Stephanie, why do you think the market is troubled by this debt offering to pay off the $29 billion bridge loan? That's part of the reason being cited for down 10%.

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I think anybody that's raising debt in this, in this world right now, I mean, look at the Max Hemmings, I mean, they, they're going to the debt markets, equity markets, free cash flow is going down. I mean, I have no, I have no problem with the debt offering at all. And if it gives me an opportunity to buy this thing down 20% with the growth that I see over the long term. Remember how successful Elon Musk has been in terms of running other companies. You do have to take a longer term approach though, Joe. And that's why I'm saying set it, forget it. And I have it at a size position where I feel comfortable.

[Scott Wapner]

You feel like you can because one of the first things you mentioned was the TAM. Okay. I mean, $28.5 trillion total addressable market. According to them. Sure, according to them. But you feel like you have a good enough handle on what you think the fundamentals can be that you're okay with buying it here. Yes, it's down 28, 25% from the high. But you know, the, the flip side to the bull case today is the lockups that are, are going to come and that's only going to create a lot more volatility with the potential of even more downside.

[Stephanie Link]

That's why it's only 2%, because I expect volatility to occur and to be around for probably a while. But hey, look, if it comes, if it comes down to 135, the IPO price. I'll buy it. I'll buy more. I'll put a 3% position on. So to me, yes, I do. I have confidence in the 28.5 trillion TAM. I don't know. I really don't. But if it's half of that, Scott, it could still deliver 70% revenue growth. And again, the big importance here is that the gross margins can actually expand substantially.

[Rob Seachern]

We said when we talked the last time we were on the show that I thought you could be a better buyer of this. It was up a huge amount, obviously. I think today is one of those days. I tend to agree with Steph. We're not doing it yet because we have a lot still from the private markets in client accounts now. I still think we haven't seen price discovery yet in this name. It's still being very engineered around the ipo. There are lockups coming off, but the fundamentals of this business, they're unreplicable by anybody else. So I don't think for us, it's now, maybe later.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm wondering what the whole short life cycle of this as a public company, or even in the preparation for it to become one, has impacted the NASDAQ in and of itself. So you had a positioning sort of was thrown out of whack for a bit leading into the ipo because people were lightening up in certain, you know, maybe mega cap tech positions to free themselves up, to have some cash to invest in the. In the ipo. I'm wondering, if nothing else, if it sort of marked a moment of reflection on where we are in terms of speculative moves within the AI universe and that both leaning in and now leading out, it marked a moment of something. I'm not saying it marked the top in anything, but a moment of something where people sat back and said this is at least something taking note of because a lot of these stocks have been weak since as well as. As this name.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

I really like the way you phrase that, Scott, because I would characterize it that way as a moment to reflect on. Perhaps there's some speculative fervor in the markets overall. I don't think. However, it is the moment. I don't think this is a late 1999, early 2000 moment. I think the IPOs that are coming from open air and anthropic will go off well and there still will be an appetite from the secondary offerings that are proposed for Oracle and Metta. But definitely this stock coming at 135 with the valuation. Stephanie, I'm sorry, I just, I disagree on the valuation. To me it is still too expensive. I love the company by the way, and I think I will be buying it. Unfortunately, I think I will be buying it below the IPO price and it's just a question of valuation which speaks to speculative fervor that I see in other areas as well. The ZTE zero time to expiration options, leveraged ETFs, some of which I think promoted the rise last week in Space X. Great company, but we're just talking about the price of the stock is too much also. Scott, I'm going to, I'm just going to say this, all right. I think that, that, that speculative fervor is fueled by comments from Elon Musk who I find to be too PT Barnum esque for my liking. When he says something on Thursday, hey, we'll do a trillion dollars in sales by 2030. Okay, how about if you get to 100 billion first? How about if we just cross that milestone and then we'll talk about 10x that in four years. And it's consistent with the way he does business. Hey, funding secured for 20, you know, sexual connotations for the, for the letters, SEC, full self driving, all this sort of stuff. So I have to, I have to have actually an Elon discount as opposed to an Elon premium.

[Rob Seachern]

Well, you're selling Elon Premium. You are out of your mind. I love you.

[Stephanie Link]

Hold on a second. Since 2010, Tesla is up 25,000%.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

It's a, it's absolutely valid point.

[Stephanie Link]

You can't, maybe you, maybe you could get a better price. I'm not sure what the right price discovery is to Rob's point. However, I do think the growth is there, the leadership is there and a founder having a company in public actually tends to do better in terms of performance than a non founder led company. I'm going to take all of those stats and I'm just going to hold this and I hope that it's not wishing.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

I'm not wishing on your position.

[Stephanie Link]

I'm not.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

What I'm saying. What I'm saying is that you're factually, of course you're factually correct with what Tesla has performed. But that has been in defiance of fundamentals. If you look at where earnings estimates were for this year for Tesla three years ago was something like three times what we're coming in at. And yet as you point out aptly, the stock does very well. If you look at the predictions of full self driving of the tag, the Robotaxi. All of these things have not come to pass the way he has said. And yet the stock goes up. And what I'm saying stuff is specific to Tesla and this will affect Space X as well is at some point rationality will ensue in both of these prices and I will be there to buy. I think they're fabulous companies that we're not disputing. It is a price dispute. And I don't like the way the way PT Musk talks about his stocks.

[Rob Seachern]

Thank God we have dreamers because they change the world. I mean the very fact that he can build a field of dreams and actually achieve the things that he's achieved. Jim, I don't know how you can root against the style when the substance is truly there.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

I like truth, all right. And that I'm not going to back off. And I will tell you, dreamers, they're great. Howard Hughes great, you know, Larry Ellison great. We're just talking about from what price do I think I will make money

[Rob Seachern]

with you on that?

[Jimmy Labenthal]

Look, I'm not wishing ill on anyone, but I think this stock is heavy not because of the debt offering but because people are saying what the heck is he talking about? $1 trillion in 2030. Give me a break.

[Joe Terranova]

What if SpaceX has a little bit of a near term challenge in of front front of it and that's the fact that the market has rotated in the month of June. Take a look at what's going on right now with Alphabet down 6%. Take a look at Amazon, which for the very first time is approaching the 100.

[Scott Wapner]

That's the big store. I mean Alphabet is down, was down like 7%. That's the worst day since May of 2025. Yeah, Amazon's having its worst month since April of 22. But that's what I was alluding to earlier, that this has all happened. And look at whether this is one of the marking moments of why it happened. I think it is that you do have money, obviously moving out of big NASDAQ names outside of Apple, by the way, which is at 300 bucks and has had a reasonably decent go. But it's not a hyperscaler, so it doesn't fall into that category. It's a mega cap tech name. It is not viewed in the same light as these other names are. Correct. Or should it be?

[Joe Terranova]

Let me build some context around this. So I don't know if it's specifically attributable to the AI theme because if I look at it, the industrials are still okay. If I look at semiconductors, you still have the names at 52 week highs like KLA Corp and Lam Research and applied Materials Micron going into earnings. That's okay. I think this is an equity sized class rotation. Microsoft's down 17% so far this month. The Russell 2000 as we speak today I believe it recorded another new all time high. I see this as a rotation and that potentially is challenging. Space X. The other element of this that we're really not focused on is the continued decline in software. It is Adobe, it is Salesforce.

[Scott Wapner]

Take a look at Salesforce first.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, well I'll tell you what first, why?

[Scott Wapner]

Because it's down 14 days in a row. Yeah, it's the longest streak ever. It's down almost 30% or so over that time period. You Rob sold it a couple weeks ago. IGVs down 12 of 14 trading days this month. We had a moment in time where software had rallied dramatically for like three weeks in a row. It did some asking was that the bottom is the worst over. Is the trade back? At least in this name and some of the others within that universe it would be a resounding no.

[Joe Terranova]

So yeah, let's tackle that for a second. The big one that stands out to me and we obviously own it in the ETF is Palantir. Palantir is down to 122. It can not sustain any type of rebound. Now in the month of June, I've been active in adding names. Generac, xbi, JP Morgan. A lot of these names are working. The one name that is not working is Twilio. I reached too high for that one. I reached for it near a 52 week high. I'm down about 18% on this name. And it's a software name that can't escape what's going on in the industry. People can't look and see the strong fundamentals of this company.

[Scott Wapner]

So.

[Joe Terranova]

So I will have to take action, mitigate the risk and the loss that I'm experiencing there. But software is incredibly challenged right now and that continued divide between software and semis continues.

[Stephanie Link]

Software cybersecurity names are rallied hard, up 60% from the lows because their business models are not going to be impacted from AI. You've heard me say it's because of AI that their business is actually going to accelerate.

[Scott Wapner]

A lot of the other ones though, in fairness, ServiceNow.

[Stephanie Link]

But it's not everyone, it's.

[Scott Wapner]

No, I know, but ServiceNow is down almost 40% on the year. IBM is now down about 17%. Sure, cybers had a nice rebound, but I think it's only so many stocks

[Stephanie Link]

you have to pick your spot.

[Scott Wapner]

That's only so many names, of course,

[Stephanie Link]

but I think you have to pick your spots. I think IBM is a screaming buy here, down as much as it is given what he has done to the business model. And we haven't even factored in quantum computing yet, which is a $1.3 trillion total addressable market between now and 2020, 30 and the stock trades about 20 times forward estimates. I think he's done a great, great job making this more of a software company, but a mission critical software. Agree with synopsis. It's mission critical. Companies cannot survive without their software. So I think you have to be very careful on what you're picking and choosing within software. But I don't want to say as a whole, it's not a place to invest.

[Scott Wapner]

I want to go back to Space X for a moment because I thought there was a really interesting note today from canaccord, which is talking about, I think in some respects, maybe some speculative activity around that name, but sort of also what the how the cohorts break down into, who's been sort of trying to ride the Space X wave and what that means for where we are. They say the following. Prior to the ipo, we felt AI optimism was robust and certainly at times over done, but largely funded by rational, if not exuberant institutions. In our view, Space X has marked a new chapter in this saga, ushering in a greater level of retail involvement tech and likely keep its momentum in the short term. But a new, more dangerous layer of air is now underneath these stocks. In other words, that more dangerous layer of air is a retail community which has come, you know, gathered in force in part to, you know, the points that we're making earlier around the idea of what Elon Musk can deliver. He's always been a Pied Piper of sorts for the retail cohort, but that has made the underpinning of this a little more fragile because that is the cohort that is acting as at least a leg or two in a stool that some people feels a little bit shaky.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

Yeah. And to my eyes, Scott, there are two categories of retail. There are the true believers, the Elon acolytes, and I don't think they're selling today. I think they're hanging on through this. But there's the other type of retail investor that we've talked about a lot on this show, and they're far more speculative. They're the yolos, the HODL people, the diamond hands, and they're fast and they go short as quickly as they go long. And how do they do that? They use the leveraged ETFs, which we have seen come out in force behind SpaceX. And I think that that is something that helped push the stock up last week, and it can equally help push the stock to the downside as well. But it speaks nothing to that underlying layer of stable retail hands. Now, if you want, if I take that canaccord comment, I'll tell you what it reminds me of is Amazon in the late 1990s. Amazon today is multiples upon multiples larger than it was in the 1990s. But it had an air pocket under it, and that air pocket had to be formed, it had to be filled, and then Amazon got through it. I think the same thing will happen with SpaceX.

[Joe Terranova]

Stephanie, if Elon Musk was not the CEO and founder, would you still buy the stock?

[Stephanie Link]

No, I don't think so. Maybe it would just be like a 1% position. I mean, I think, I don't think

[Scott Wapner]

that's a real fair question. I mean, honestly.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, why?

[Jimmy Labenthal]

Because he is the CEO.

[Dominic Chu]

I mean.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, so where I'm going with that,

[Stephanie Link]

it kind of changes.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, so where, where, where I'm going with that question is I think it is nearly impossible right now for myself or others to fundamentally figure out the stock. And if you don't have the.

[Stephanie Link]

I mean, I just cited all these stats to you.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, but then, but then you said,

[Stephanie Link]

but then you said, if that first mover advantage and their launch costs are coming down substantially, that's huge.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

Right?

[Stephanie Link]

And Starlink, I mean, but 10 million to 250 million in a span of.

[Joe Terranova]

Then you said, I need Elon Musk to be there. So you're attaching must to the fundamentals.

[Scott Wapner]

But you could have said the same thing when, you know, whatever valuation that Amazon had way back when. And you could have said, well, they're really putting a valuation like that on a company that sells books only, like, where's the, what's the total addressable market there? Can you believe in what the fundamental projections are of a store that hypothetically at that time could end up literally selling everything and bringing it to your door within, you know, in some cases, six to 10 hours? But no, you can never describe valuations that mean something in the earliest days of transformational technology.

[Joe Terranova]

But Scott, that's a unicorn.

[Scott Wapner]

That, that's.

[Joe Terranova]

How many companies can say that's exactly

[Jimmy Labenthal]

what we're talking about.

[Stephanie Link]

Well listen, look at what Larry Kolp did at ge, right? Look like, I mean some. If you have a great CEO and a great bench, I mean that means to me.

[Joe Terranova]

But we're talking about it on an ipo. I have a difficulty at the early stages of the IPO trying to figure out the fundamentals of it. That's the point.

[Rob Seachern]

It's not a fundamentalist stock right now. It's, it's a big. That's why over time will be. I totally agree with you.

[Scott Wapner]

Let me hit this other stock. Since you mentioned ge, this is really interesting story. I think it plays into a lot of things that you guys own Microsoft and Chevron. This 20 year power deal for a Texas data center. Caterpillar's part of that. They're going to provide turbines. Chevron's partners, GE Vernova cats above $1,000. I think for the first time ever we got a lot of ownership here. Steph, you go first because the idea, the idea that David Faber put forth earlier as they were discussing this, this deal is that from what he's hearing there's going to be similar ones in the months ahead that the hyperscalers are involved, are involved in. I mean the demand for computers is so enormous and the demand for powering the compute is equally as enormous.

[Stephanie Link]

We don't have enough power. Our grids are really old data centers. We only have 11,400 in the world. 5,5400 here in the United States. That number needs to get to at least 30,000 by 2030. And all these companies that I own over, Quantum Services, Vertiv, all are going to benefit from that. Every one of these companies absolutely blew away the earnings, the orders, the backlogs, raised numbers increasing free cash flow, which is at the opposite end of the MAG7 where they're actually depleting their free cash flow. So GE Vernova specifically said that their backlog of 200 billion will be obtained by the end of 2027. They had said in January it would be by 2028. So in one year they're actually seeing that much and they're sold out until 2028. Quantum Services did the same thing with their total addressable market at their analyst day. 960 billion in total addressable market today going to 2.4 trillion by 2030. And they participate in all of those things, data center, power and grid. So they're a real big beneficiary. Invertive. I mean talk about great leaders. Dave Cody is one of the all time Best. He was the CEO of Honeywell for many, many 15 years. The stock was up huge under him. He's now the executive chair. And they too are seeing phenomenal growth.

[Scott Wapner]

So there are a lot of people on the, on the same side of the boat on that story because it makes perfect sense, right? I was a fly on the wall. Let's just say at, at an investor pitch day. At an investor pitch day. At investor pitch day. I'm not going to say who pitched what name, but it was in the power area. Okay. And it's not like it's a guaranteed home run deal. The person who pitched it is a very notable money manager. Even made the case of the bear case, which is if the power to power these data centers and all the compute becomes markedly cheaper, which you can make the bet that it would over a period of time. And that's a bear case for this power story. Everybody's buying into it now.

[Stephanie Link]

We don't have enough of it.

[Joe Terranova]

We're still building.

[Scott Wapner]

I understand we're building it, but if it, but if it becomes a lot cheaper, if it's.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

If you want the bear case. The bear case was laid out by Satya Nadella. Now, you don't have to believe him, but that's what he's basically saying, that we don't need all of these competing large language models, all of these frontier models. And in fact, I mean, he's saying that he's leaning into things like Deep Seek, which I think is a copycat. I think it's cheating, it's distilling from the existing models. But that's, that's where the power demand could go down. I'm not saying it will happen, but that's, that's the bear case.

[Joe Terranova]

Now stay on this though, because this is this. I think it's accurate. So we're in the stage where we're building it. I always remember in 2023, we put on Qantas services in the ETF. And I was, I was like, why, why are we even putting that on? And then the building process, the infrastructure built out. So you're still building the data centers right now. You need the cooling, you need the contribution from all of them. But there is a finite moment, the proof point, as you call it, where the building.

[Stephanie Link]

You're in the second inning, you're in the second inning.

[Joe Terranova]

Whatever inning. It's early, but at some point it ends.

[Stephanie Link]

Don't ask me. As Dave Cody it definitely.

[Rob Seachern]

Scalers are investing in securing power because it's the ultimate bottleneck that they're focused on and everybody, I don't care if it's on the chips, the memory, the power. They're in a spending race because they clearly see something that that's different that's going to impact them in power in my mind's the ultimate undervalued beneficiary. Why we've been long V struck, why we've been long nrg, why we've been focused on this space. And I happen to agree with that person. I know who it is. We can't say it, but I agree with that person that this is a bet worth taking for sure in this space.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, one last stock before we take a break. By the way, because not even a if you try to make a negative case, every, every pitch has a bull and bear case to it.

[Rob Seachern]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

No one's suggesting it's a today issue at any rate. It's just needs to be mentioned.

[Rob Seachern]

Of course the dichotomy, the risk factor is is that these hyperscalers and you mentioned them all and how much they're down in the month or in the last quarter and they're being punished for spending and yet so is software. Does not make sense that they are being punished for spending when that spending is driving better outcomes for them over time.

[Scott Wapner]

It all plays into the, you know, chips that are powering all this stuff to begin with. But the SMH is at a record high. Best first half to a year ever. That's worth noting. Marvell is being added to the S and P today. You want just you guys give me actually Steph, why don't you go. You want to go on that one.

[Stephanie Link]

And they had a great quarter and they raised guidance and optical is growing 50%. Custom Asics is growing from 20% today to 100% by the end of 2027. This company has $10 in earnings power now. All that being said, Scott, it's up huge. I'm more inclined to trim a little bit because it's had. I've had such a nice run. But they are right in the sweet spot. All right.

[Scott Wapner]

Coming up, we'll debate our top calls of the day. We have two upgrades in the energy space. That sector remains this quarter's biggest loser. We'll find out where the committee stance we'll be Come back.

[Edward Jones Representative]

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[Scott Wapner]

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[Edward Jones Representative]

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[Scott Wapner]

That's unstoppable energy.

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Foreign

[Scott Wapner]

calls and some stocks. Diamondback Energy upgraded today to a buy from neutral. Roth Capital is the firm that did it. Joe, you own that name?

[Joe Terranova]

We do. This is the one company in the Permian Basin that has actually stepped forward and say, okay, we are going to increase production. If you look at production in the Permian Basin 2021, it was up 16%. The last two years it's only been up 3%. Why? Because those companies are more concerned about the shareholder over the last several years and that's where the capital is going to very strong acquisition of Endeavor. 25/billion dollars. I think this is the one name in the Permian that you want to own and you have a little bit of a correction here. I see that as an opportunity.

[Dominic Chu]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

Trivariat has upgraded energy in general to an overweight today. They see the risk reward now as as positive. Fair amount of ownership here. Rob, what do you think about that? You own Devon, eog, CNR and Suncor.

[Rob Seachern]

Yeah, this is just a combination of reasonable valuations, healthy earnings growth, geopolitical insulation, which I think is key, and a low correlation to the infrastructure theme. And so you know you're going to get the benefit of the spend without the same same volatility with the span.

[Scott Wapner]

What about the correlation to the price of oil? Like if, if there's settlement regarding Middle East.

[Rob Seachern]

I think there's certainly risk to the price of oil. But a lot of these folks we've owned a long time and if you're building a portfolio, you want something that zigs as we saw when everything else zags. And I will tell you that these names because of their price, because of the opportunity, opportunity set, the optionality that comes with powering this whole ecosystem. I think it's a great call. And by the way, I think there's a lot thing that scares me a little bit is there's a lot of people that share our view.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, if you do you look at that chart year to date, it's up 20%. Now if you can show the chart since March 1 for the XLE, you are not buying the XLE because of what potentially is going to go on with the price of oil. You have to to buy the XLE because since March 1st the XLE. There you go. It's down 3.7% since the onset of the military operation or the conflict or whatever. So you are buying it for what happened before the conflict, for the ability of these of these companies to reward the shareholder to grow their production and have that revenue growth. Last thing I'll say in all of it, when we say overweight energy, remember that's not very, very much. Okay. That's taking a 3% weighting to maybe a 5% weight.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

I'll make a strong case that oil actually goes higher from here to the end of the year. I think we're underestimating or the market is underestimating how much inventories need to be refilled. Not just commercial, but strategic. We were already very low on the spr, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before this conflict started. We know China drew down and all of the oil that's going to be transited out of the Persian Gulf hasn't been meaningful amount of time that it takes to actually transit. On top of that energy security is going to demand that countries delink from the Persian Gulf. I think oil is going to be around 70 to $80 a barrel for the rest of the year.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's go through some names. Monster Beverage, Overweight, Morgan Stanley.

[Joe Terranova]

Quickly you got that pricing power consumer staple name near an all time high. Executing increasing prices on Red Bull and

[Scott Wapner]

they will stick 52 week high today for Dick's Sporting Goods. Top pick Baird to 64 is the price target there.

[Stephanie Link]

I wish it was bigger. This is a great management team and their core business is humming. Same store sales of 6% at the core company and then Foot Locker which has been a big problem. They actually turned positive comps earlier than expected and guiding higher company has made big investments in Foot Locker and also World cup. And I think that goes away in the second half of this year. So I think you have a coiled spot.

[Scott Wapner]

Spring, second half of the year, CME target to 273. Okay. It was, it was 323, quote, taking a tempered approach on exchanges for now.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah. Well, I think, I think the analyst is following price here. When you look at the cme, you look at ice, you look at nasdaq, it's warranted. They each have had correction CME with a leadership change, it's understandable there. My focus would be on Schwab or interactive Brokers. I think that's how you're playing, seeing trading activity continuing to be high.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Pippa Stevens has a CNBC news update for us today.

[Dominic Chu]

Hi, Pepa.

[Pippa Stevens]

Hey, Scott. A big leadership shake up at Matter today. Well, Cathcart met his longtime WhatsApp leader, is stepping down and will be replaced by the founder of Indian fintech startup cred. CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote in a post that Cathcart will stay at the company in a different role. Meta also said it will invest $900 million in credit cred as its CEO prepares to take over WhatsApp. Alan Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve chairman for four presidents and famous for his warning of irrational exuberance in the markets, has died at age 100. He was Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006. The central bank wrote in a statement that Greenspan's contributions left a lasting mark on the Fed, on the broader field of economics and on the country. And Google is investing $75 million in the movie studio A24 as part of a new AI research partnership. That's according to the Wall Street Journal. The deal does not give Google access to A24 data such as its film and TV library, but it does involve the studio working with Google's DeepMind AI unit to create new tools for movie production and distribution. Scott, back to you.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Pippa, thank you very much for that, Pippa Stevens. Coming up next, ETF Edge with the domino. What do you have coming up?

[Dominic Chu]

All right. So, Scott, the narratives in the bond market are shifting pretty dramatically these days. More expectations for multiple interest rate hikes by the end of this year. So how should bond investors position amid still uncertain plays in the Middle east and changing inflation expectations? We'll have more on that story on ETF Edge on the Halftime Report. Keep it right here.

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[Robert Frank]

Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.

[Dominic Chu]

Welcome back to the Halftime Report. I'm Dominic Chu with your ETF edge now with the wash era at the Fed off to a surprising start, B of A research is now projecting a total of 75 basis points worth of rate hikes before the end of this year. So should ETF investors prepare for that aggressive path going forward. Joining me now is George Borie, the chief investment strategist for Fixed Income over at All Spring Global Investments. This is a very interesting and curious state of play that's developing. Everybody thought dovish for quite some time. The war in Iran started but how are expectations changing in Europe? Your mind for rate trajectory going forward?

[Edward Jones Representative]

Well, I think that Warsh did a good job. He did three things. Number one, established credibility. He anchored the long end, bond yields came down. The front end is now has a huge dispersion as you said, B of A three hikes, Citi three cuts. He put an uncertainty premium at the front end of the curve. But the third and the most important thing he did didn't tell you what he's going to do, right? So there's no guidance. He's going to follow the data. They are going to follow the data. But there's a window and they have all these changes coming. So we think they're going to be on hold, we think for a while and we got it. We need to see how the data actually unfolds. Oil prices are down 30% now. They're up 20 from where we started but down 30 and we're on the cusp hopefully of an agreement in Iran. So, so we think the Fed is going to be on hold. You can buy some duration in here safely. Yields are elevated and the data should start to work for you as we get into the summer.

[Dominic Chu]

All right, we've got just a couple, couple of seconds left here. Tactically speaking, where exactly do the best opportunities show up in your mind right now? What parts of the market?

[Edward Jones Representative]

Yeah, I think there is, there's an opportunity here for some duration, especially in and around the five year period, part of the curve. And then the other is that taxable versus tax exempt opportunity, the municipal bond market. It's a quirky market, but there's tremendous value in it, especially on a tax advantage basis.

[Dominic Chu]

All right, so we're watching Munis for share here. Now we're going to continue this conversation over at ETF edge.cnbc.com George is going to be joined by Steve Lapley, the head of us ishares fixed income over at BlackRock. So a big conversation about bonds and rates. Scott, I'll send things back over to you guys.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Dom, appreciate that very much. Thank you. Dominic Chu, coming up next, CNBC's first ever elite Advisors list. Robert Frank is following the money on the top investment managers for ultra high net worth clients. We'll reveal it next. Welcome back, CNBC's inaugural Elite Advisor list out today highlighting the top firms serving ultra high net worth investors are. Robert Frank joins us now with more. Hey Robert.

[Robert Frank]

Scott, good to see you. Well, they are the 25 firms that specialize in advising investors with more than 25 million in investable assets. CNBC's Elite Advisors list highlights the advisors who have the history, the skill, scale, expertise, services and the client base to solve the very complex problems of today's ultra wealthy investors. They manage more than $2 trillion combined. They have headquarters in 15 states, offices across the US and even Europe. They've been in business an average of 31 years. Now with fees under pressure and the ultra wealthy growing rapidly in both the wealth and numbers, advisors are all battling for the top of that wealth pyramid. That has led to a lot more confusion among investors. Now the elite advisors were chosen through a comprehensive process in consultation with Cerule and Accupoint Solutions. You can find the full list, our detailed methodology and the questions every wealthy investor should be asking their [e-mail] eliteadvisors Scott?

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Robert, appreciate that. Thank you. That's Robert Frank, New Edge. I hope everybody noticed on the wall that Robert showed during his reporting there that New Edge wealth made the list. Congrats.

[Rob Seachern]

Thank you.

[Scott Wapner]

How long, how long have you guys been in business? Now, what would you say is your differentiating factor that every one of those on that wall thinks that they have? And why do you think you made this list? What's what, what has enabled you to make this list? List?

[Rob Seachern]

First off, it's an honor to be on the list. You know, our involvement as a firm with CNBC I certainly think was a factor. We have a reasonably prominent brand as a result of being on here with all these guys every day and you being so gracious to have, have us on here, that's, that's number one. Number two, I would say our investors, our leadership who drove just a tremendous outcome, our advisors and obviously the clients that trust us every day. That's why we're on the list. I think the differentiating factor in our business really moves beyond investing, Scott and it's into being a central source of truth for our clients. Meaning that they come to us with anything with a dollar sign in front of it. They come to us to simplify commissioners complexity. They come to us for organization. And when you're a really large family and it's really complex for you to figure out what's going on in a difficult to manage balance sheet, they come to us for the technology, the people in the access that ultimately make that more simple and drive better outcomes for them.

[Scott Wapner]

When you, when you started this company, I mean, you've had a, you know, long career, you know, even long for your age. You're still a young man, but you've had a long career, sometimes bumpy during the financial crisis. Right. Persevering through that, then founding New Edge and thinking that you'd make a list like this one day.

[Rob Seachern]

I had hoped I was a little bit of a field of dreams builder. I saw a better way to do things, I thought, and it turns out that many of my partners, many of the advisors, many of the people that joined our company, which are now well over 350 people, shared that vision and helped us achieve it. It's only been five and a half short years since we've done this, so to make this list is incredible honor. New Edge Capital group has over $100 billion in assets now. We started with four. And so I think it's the asset growth is kind of the scoreboard as a testament to the things that we're bringing to clients.

[Scott Wapner]

How have you seen in just five short years the role of an asset manager or A wealth manager in somebody's life evolve. Like the whole reason we have a conversation about SpaceX here, where most of us used to only have access to that in the public market, your owning it in the private market underscores sort of how wealth management in general has evolved in that you're able to give your clients, albeit extremely high net worth ones, access to things that maybe they didn't have access to in the past. And just how this business of wealth management in general has become a lot more than just managing someone's stocks and bond portfolios.

[Rob Seachern]

100%, I think, you know, where size mattered a long time ago and it still matters somewhat today. You want to be large enough to be relevant, but small enough to be nimble. And I think what's been lost along the way is that nimbleness and that sitting center on the same side of the table as the client. I think there's a lot of firms, a lot of the competition that was on that list. I'd like to congratulate all of them because it is a great group of firms that I believe are really doing the right thing in helping clients achieve better outcomes.

[Scott Wapner]

Well said. Appreciate that and congratulations.

[Robert Frank]

Thank you.

[Rob Seachern]

Thank you very much.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Santoli is next with his midday work. Back on the half senior markets commentator over time, co anchor Michael Santoli joining us now. You know, I don't know if you're focused on or to the degree to which you are focused on SpaceX and sort of what it, what it has meant to the way that this market has traded in the days preceding the IPO and then, and then thereafter, 2225 to 165 happened pretty fast.

[Michael Santoli]

It absolutely did. I mean, the one observation I would make is that this actually fits a recent pattern. When you've had, you know, somewhat hyped IPOs that come out strong, they kind of crystallize all the aggressive demand pretty much in the first day or maybe the day after. And then you have a little bit of a recess, you know, in the, in the price and you have more sellers and buyers and all the rest of it. I think part of it was, and I was saying this leading up to the deal, people were apprehensive about the, the effect the absolute supply was going to have on the overall market. And I almost feel like that kind of built up a little bit of a wall of worry and people pre sold some things. So it didn't really make much of a ripple. I don't think you could observe when it came out since then, I mean, I guess it's a decent risk appetite tell for a certain segment of the market but it's not necessarily, necessarily to me spilling over into other things you might think would. Right. You still have small caps up. That's a kind of a spec trade right now. And it's interesting in that mag 7 is also weak, which is a little bit like the polar opposite of SpaceX because it's fundamentally strong and they have the financial capacity and their incumbents, but they're also not trading well. So I would say it's notable that you're seeing this pullback, but I'm not necessarily sure exactly how to read it in terms of whether it has bellwether property.

[Scott Wapner]

How important do you think Micron is this week? You know, relative to everything that's gone on?

[Michael Santoli]

Fabulously important. I mean right now tech has been reduced to the hardware food chain and memory is right on top of it. So everyone keeps saying. Oh, but earnings estimates are up so much the next two years. That's absolutely true. But the price move has become so aggressive that you can't kind of convince me that it's all purely earnings based. So I think it's a good test. You know, the memory group is imposing attacks on the rest of the technology industry and that's why you see software fail and you see now the hyperscalers not being able to to kind of hang in there. So I don't know, it seems like a pretty unstable equilibrium.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you in a couple of hours, Mike.

[Robert Frank]

Thank you.

[Scott Wapner]

That's Mike Santoli. We'll take a break. We'll come back with finals.

[Joe Terranova]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.

[Scott Wapner]

Adam Parker Chris Harvey Chris verrone. See at 3 o' clock what happens to the tech trade between now and then. We'll certainly document that. Rob Seats and congrats again on your firm making our inaugural list.

[Rob Seachern]

What's your final trade Bistro Continue to see power as a bottleneck and think they're one of the best position for that.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, that space getting a nice bump today. As we discussed earlier.

[Jimmy Labenthal]

Farmer Jim Crh Important materials companies should benefit from all the things we're talking about with a build out making a big acquisition today.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you very much for that.

[Stephanie Link]

Stephanie Link Rockwell Automation. I think automation is in very early innings as this company's growing double digits with margin expansion.

[Joe Terranova]

Generac Industrial name bought two weeks ago. Going to add more this afternoon.

[Scott Wapner]

The other thing, real quick, just to get out there. You sold Netflix to help fund SpaceX?

[Stephanie Link]

I did.

[Scott Wapner]

Stock that hasn't traded well, right?

[Stephanie Link]

No, it really hasn't. That's another reason I sold it.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. All right, well, we will see where SpaceX goes over the remaining hours of this day. I'll see you through. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[EY Parthenon Representative]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half time report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Snoring, gasping during sleep?

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