CNBC Halftime Report - "Stocks and AI Anxiety"
Episode Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe, Rob Seachin
Episode Overview
Main Theme:
The episode centers on growing anxiety in the stock market, particularly around leading AI and data center stocks, as high-profile names experience sharp declines and prompt debates on valuations, AI sustainability, and broader sector rotation. The panelists discuss whether these moves signal a deeper correction, a rationalization of exuberance, or early signs of an "AI bubble," all while providing tactical guidance for investors at the close of 2025.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Anxiety and the Tech Sell-off
(00:15–05:00)
-
Heavy Selling in Tech:
- Nasdaq down over 1%, with data center and mega-cap AI names leading declines.
- Only Meta among the mega-caps is up; Nvidia down 7% in a week, Alphabet down 6.5%.
- Contextualized as a "1996 moment, not a 1999 tech bubble," per Dan Ives.
-
AI Bubble Debate:
- Goldman’s Sung Cho (clip from prior show, 02:16) underscores that as long as AI model innovation and earnings continue to "beat and raise," the sector remains healthy, not in a bubble.
Quote:
"As long as you're beating and raising earnings, which is still the case, you're not going to run into a problem."
— Scott Wapner summarizing Sung Cho's view (02:40)
2. Defensive Positioning and Valuation Risk
(02:54–05:31)
- Joe Terranova:
- Correction possible without a bubble.
- Examples: Broadcom down 21% since earnings; signals caution heading into 2026.
- Recommends a more defensive positioning.
Quote:
"It doesn't have to be a bubble for there to be a correction in terms of valuation, sentiment, positioning."
— Joe Terranova (02:54)
3. Strategy Amid Turmoil
Rob Seachin and Steve Weiss
(04:00–07:12)
-
Rob Seachin:
- Valuations need to reset for new entry points.
- Capital spending expectations in AI space rebounding—JP Morgan now expects up to 60% increase, from prior 30% estimate.
Quote:
"We've bought Nvidia several times... you have a rerating, you have fundamentals improving, the valuation comes in a bit and we buy."
— Rob Seachin (04:26) -
Steve Weiss:
- Stock prices outpacing fundamentals on the way up; now resetting.
- AI remains the "fastest adopted technology in history."
- Favors 'permanent compounders' with recurring revenues: Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon.
4. Fundamentals vs. Hype in Megacap Tech
(07:12–09:04)
- Jason Snipe:
- Mega-cap AI run fueled by execution and capital expenditure headlines; secular strength is there, but some profit-taking is healthy after three-year run.
- Russell 2000, transports, energy discussed as areas to watch for rotation or broadening.
5. Oracle & Data Center Anxiety
(09:04–12:14)
-
Seema Modi’s Report:
- Oracle’s $10 billion Michigan data center deal faces funding issues; market punished the stock (-4%).
- Raising broader questions about Oracle's OpenAI partnership and reliance on debt for growth.
-
Panel on Oracle:
- Jason Snipe: Concern with Oracle’s reliance on debt rather than free cash flow, vulnerability if OpenAI partnership falters.
Quote:
"They're relying on the debt markets to grow this company, and they're not pulling from free cash flow... that's the narrative."
— Jason Snipe (11:47)
6. Rotation Within AI, Power, & Software Names
(12:14–19:49)
-
Rotational Pain:
- Panelists dissect broad sell-off in data center-related names (Dell, Vistra, Eaton, Vertiv), as well as recent final trade confusion with Vertiv.
- Discussion about tactical moves, exits, and reflecting on the balance between being nimble and being consistent with public recommendations.
-
Software Sector Weakness:
- ServiceNow, DocuSign, Workday, SNOW, DDOG all underperforming.
- AI "cannibalization" fears create pressure as investors worry about software companies losing influence/market share to AI platforms.
Quote:
"There's this kind of narrative playing on the market that AI agents are going to take over that [workflow] space in its entirety."
— Jason Snipe (17:23)
7. Market Sentiment, Positioning, and Broader Outlook
(19:49–25:54)
-
Volatility and Bullishness:
- Sell-offs in Oracle, CoreWeave impact sentiment across AI; panelists note the market is "nervous" as a single negative headline triggers sector-wide selling.
- Debate on whether the market is too bullish or properly recalibrating after a big run.
-
Permanent Compounders & Defensive Tech:
- Weiss and Seachin argue most Mag 7 names will remain foundational due to their resilience and efficiency.
- Panel agrees the issue is more about short-term positioning and profit-taking, not a breakdown in fundamentals.
Quote:
"You have to understand what's going on right now when I say that it's where we're working off bullishness. I don't think the fundamentals have changed dramatically..."
— Joe Terranova (25:15)
8. Portfolio Moves & Rotation
(27:47–30:13)
-
Rob Seachin's Moves:
- New buys: Devon Energy, Host Hotels (broadening beyond tech into energy, consumer strength).
- Sold Verisk: "Poster child for AI disruption" (30:13).
-
**Panel sees selective opportunities in energy, REITs, and quality travel real estate.
9. Golf Business Segment: Rory McIlroy Interview
(35:19–44:28)
-
Key Announcements:
- Versant and Rory McIlroy extend Golf Pass partnership and announce new content production arm (Firethorne Productions).
- Discussion on using current relevance to build post-golf business, highlight of new TV event (Optum Golf Channel Games).
-
On Golf Business Strategy:
- McIlroy: "What better time to put the wheels in motion with things that I'm interested in than when I'm most relevant?" (39:24)
- Hints at upcoming major changes to PGA Tour scheduling focused on scarcity and simplicity by 2027.
10. Rapid-Fire Headlines & Other Market News
(44:51–47:25)
-
Medline IPO:
- Largest global IPO of the year; up over 20% from initial pricing.
-
Robinhood Prediction Markets:
- Quickly expanding parlay/prop offerings; aims to integrate event contracts with traditional securities/crypto trading.
- Joe Terranova: Robinhood has positioned itself well, strong exec team, leading role in online brokerage.
11. Final Trades
(48:19–48:31)
- Rob Seachin: "Broadening out trade continues."
- Jason Snipe: "Microsoft down 12% since end of October. I like this one here."
- Steve Weiss: "Netflix. I think it’s putting in a bottom and still interesting."
- Joe Terranova: Twilio "pushing towards 150."
Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)
-
"As long as you're beating and raising earnings... you're not going to run into a problem."
— Scott Wapner paraphrasing Sung Cho (02:40) -
"We're seeing a nervous market... just keep in mind, it was two companies, Lehman and Bear, that caused damage to every other company. Here it's Oracle and CoreWeave."
— Steve Weiss (19:49) -
"I'm going to go a little bit of both [Mag 7 and broadening]. I just think this is specific to positioning and that tells me the fundamentals have not changed or deteriorated significantly."
— Joe Terranova (25:15) -
"What better time to put the wheels in motion with things I'm interested in than when I'm most relevant?"
— Rory McIlroy (39:24)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Introduction & Market Sell-Off: 00:15–02:54
- Bubble/Narrative on AI: 02:54–05:31
- Data Center Headwinds & Oracle Segment: 09:04–12:14
- Software and AI 'Cannibalization' Discussion: 16:23–19:49
- Market Sentiment & Positioning: 19:49–25:54
- Portfolio Moves: 27:47–30:13
- Golf Business & Rory McIlroy: 35:19–44:28
- Robinhood Expansion: 46:03–47:25
- Final Trades: 48:19–48:31
Tone & Language
The tone is fast-paced, analytical, and at times informal, with panelists pushing each other to clarify positions, admit missteps, or defend tactical portfolio adjustments. Market uncertainty and AI skepticism permeate the episode, but there is underlying optimism for long-term leaders and selective opportunities beyond tech.
This summary offers a comprehensive guide for listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of the episode’s themes and takeaways without needing to reference the full recording.