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Stocks and the Fed 6/18/25

Halftime Report

Published: Wed Jun 18 2025

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the outlook for stocks ahead of Chair Powell’s Fed meeting today. Plus, the Investment Committee share their latest portfolio moves. And later, the desk discuss what the GENIUS act passage means for the crypto sector. Investment Committee Disclosures

Summary

Halftime Report: Stocks and the Fed – June 18, 2025

Hosted by: Scott Wapner, CNBC

1. Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of Halftime Report, CNBC’s Scott Wapner dives deep into the current stock market landscape amidst a pivotal Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Joined by top investors Joe Terranova, Bill Baruch, Kevin Simpson, Steve Weiss, and Washington correspondent Steve Liesman, the discussion centers around investor sentiments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's potential moves, and sector-specific performances.

2. Market Outlook and the Fed Meeting

Scott Wapner opens the conversation by highlighting the green trend across the markets but notes differing forecasts from analysts like BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky and Tom Lee.

Joe Terranova (01:55):
"As we move towards the end of the second quarter and mid-year, you have this looming battle between resiliency and complacency. Do we have a resilient market or is there too much complacency in the market?"

Steve Liesman (03:29):
"I think Chair Powell has a reason to go dovish... the Michigan consumer one-year inflation expectations just came in at 5.3%, which is important because the Fed believes inflation expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy and it's coming down."

The panel debates whether Powell will maintain a hawkish stance or pivot to dovishness, considering recent economic indicators like elevated jobless claims and weak retail sales.

3. Resilience vs. Complacency in the Market

Joe Terranova (02:09):
"I'm in the resiliency camp. I think this is a resilient market and we continue to march higher towards the all-time highs."

He expresses concerns about the continuation of buybacks ending and the potential impact of a hawkish Fed stance on the market.

Kevin Simpson (05:07):
"We're already too restrictive and should be considering rate cuts. However, with potential tariffs and oil price uncertainties, the Fed's disposition remains unclear."

The discussion underscores the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy decisions and their implications for market resilience.

4. Sector Spotlight: Industrials

Industrials emerge as the standout sector, outperforming others year-to-date. The panel discusses key players and investment strategies within this sector.

Kevin Simpson (12:12):
"Caterpillar is almost like a stealthy play within the datacenter space... it's trading at only a 17p E, a 25% discount to John Deere, which is historically wide for those two names."

Steve Weiss (13:21):
"I like the price hike on Honeywell. I think the sum of the parts is going to be far greater when they break this company up."

Joe Terranova (14:35):
"The industrial sector is capturing a lot of capital that found the sector unappealing in previous years. With earnings growth visibility, there's room to rebuild positioning in a multitude of these names."

Investors are bullish on companies like Caterpillar, Honeywell, and others within the industrial space due to their strong performance and future growth prospects.

5. AI and Autonomous Vehicles Discussion

The conversation shifts to advancements in AI and autonomous vehicles, with a focus on Waymo’s expansion and Meta’s aggressive talent acquisition.

Ryan Reynolds (24:30):
"Waymo is expanding to New York City next month with a manual driver to collect data and test. By 2030, Waymo will have expanded its addressable US footprint to 57% from less than 10% and taken 10% of the rideshare market."

Bill Baruch (19:40):
"OpenAI is getting more competitive on pricing, but Microsoft still benefits significantly from their relationship with OpenAI."

Carl Quintanilla (22:05):
"It's expensive to get engineers. Companies spend massive amounts to secure top talent, which is critical for innovation in AI."

The panel assesses the competitive landscape of AI, the strategic moves by major players, and the potential long-term impacts on the market.

6. Hot Streak Stocks Performance

A segment is dedicated to stocks experiencing significant gains, analyzing the reasons behind their momentum.

Steve Liesman (35:53):
"Cameco’s up 60% in three months due to a nuclear renaissance, supported by recent executive orders encouraging nuclear energy."

Joe Terranova (36:15):
"Amphenol has benefited from over five years of holding, with revenue growth exceeding 20% annually. Quanta Services and EQT are also highlighted for their strong performance."

Kevin Simpson (37:14):
"DoorDash's first-quarter revenue jumped 21% to a record $3 billion, with total orders up 18%."

These stocks are identified as standout performers driven by sector-specific tailwinds, strategic business moves, and robust financial performance.

7. Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Legislation

The discussion touches on the recent legislative developments affecting the cryptocurrency market, particularly stablecoins.

Bill Baruch (44:09):
"With the Senate passing its stablecoin bill, Circle is surging over 400% from its IPO two weeks ago. However, Bitcoin remains flat month-to-date."

Carl Quintanilla (44:52):
"Corporations are raising more money by Bitcoin, but stablecoin legislation may impact Bitcoin’s use case. I'm staying invested for the momentum despite the volatility."

Steve Liesman (44:47):
"Bitcoin's performance is affected by global tensions and its fungibility issues. Any escalation in conflicts could negatively impact its performance."

The panel evaluates the implications of stablecoin regulations on the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem and investor strategies.

8. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, the panel reflects on upcoming Fed decisions, market momentum, and strategic stock movements.

Scott Wapner (46:16):
"We've got Goldman Sachs as my final trade. If the Fed is status quo, I believe the stocks can do well, especially with the IPO window open."

Kevin Simpson (46:33):
"We've been buying Nvidia’s diverse offerings in chips, software, and networking. It's poised for new highs."

Joe Terranova (46:50):
"JP Morgan is up 35% from its April low and is aiming for a new all-time high, targeting a trillion-dollar milestone in the coming year."

The episode concludes with optimism about selected sectors and stocks, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in a volatile market influenced by Fed policies and technological advancements.

Notable Quotes:

  • Joe Terranova (02:09):
    "Do we have a resilient market or is there too much complacency in the market?"

  • Steve Weiss (08:40):
    "Looking at the core PC numbers, the Fed's uncertainty is just below pandemic levels and above the financial crisis, indicating persistent uncertainty."

  • Kevin Simpson (12:12):
    "Caterpillar is a stealthy play within the datacenter space, trading at a 25% discount to John Deere."

  • Carl Quintanilla (22:05):
    "It costs a fortune to get engineers. Companies spend massive amounts to secure top talent, which is critical for innovation in AI."

  • Ryan Reynolds (24:30):
    "Waymo will have expanded its addressable US footprint to 57% from less than 10% and taken 10% of the rideshare market by 2030."

Conclusion

This episode of Halftime Report offers a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics influenced by Fed policies, sector-specific performances, and technological advancements in AI and autonomous vehicles. The insights from seasoned investors provide valuable perspectives for navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape.

Note: All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their affiliates.

No transcript available.