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Halftime Report
Stocks Face a Critical Week 8/18/25
00:55:29
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the critical week for stocks as central bankers gather in Jackson Hole for their annual get-together. Plus a historic meeting at the White House today as European leaders and President Zelensky meet President Trump to discuss the Russia-Ukraine War. And later, the desk debate the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Narrator/Commercial Voice
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- [01:02]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live, weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. We'll begin with breaking news. Thank you, Carl. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Walker. You are looking at a live shot of the White House where Ukraine's President Zelensky and other European leaders will be arriving for that critical meeting this afternoon with President Trump. We expect these leaders to start trickling in, really any time now. We'll bring in our Eamon Jabbers. He's with us once again to set the scene, just like he was around the summit on Friday in Alaska. Tell us what we should expect here. Amen. With the big moment that I think we're all looking forward to is the actual arrival of President Zelensky and what kind of greeting he gets from the president given what happened six months ago the last time he visited the White House.
- [02:01]
Eamon Javers
Yes, Scott, that's right. So a couple of thoughts. One is what you're looking at here is the South Lawn of the White House. This is where we expect to see the European leaders arrive. We're told that French President Emmanuel Macron is already on the ground, landed at Dulles a short time ago, and is making his way here to the White House. So we should see that arrival. And you can see they're getting set with cameras, the honor guard and the rest on the South Lawn. European leaders will be arriving there at that red carpet here on the north side of the White House. We're going to see Volodymyr Zelenskyy we're expecting his arrival at about 1pm Eastern. So about an hour's time from now, we do expect the President to greet him at the West Wing entrance. So you'll see photos of that. So the Europeans are coming in. You see the press aides and camera folks getting ready there on the South Lawn. They're going to have a lunch inside the White House before a bilateral meeting later in the afternoon. We do expect to see Zelensky and Trump together one on one in the White House as well. And one of the big questions of all this is how many of those European leaders will participate in that meeting, if any, will they be all in the room? And there you see the list of European leaders who will be here in Washington. All of these folks have scrambled their schedules at very short notice, which really underscores the importance of this meeting today to them and to European security. Scott so we'll wait and watch.
- [03:24]
Scott Wapner
And you know, when we remember what happened the last time, obviously, amen. In the Oval Office, it was President Trump who told Zelensky he didn't have the cards. And in many ways this is trying to show up with a full house, so to speak. Some really notable face cards to prove that he, in fact, does have the support of leadership in the EU and that they believe, believe that they have an important seat at this table now.
- [03:53]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, clearly, that's right. I mean, it was sort of Zelensky on his own the first time. Now it's Zelensky and company coming to the White House. Europeans are worried that the United States will back away from its support from Ukraine, will try to push Ukraine into offering too, too many concessions, including territorial and other concessions. And they're hoping to craft some, some sort of security guarantee for the Ukrainians backed by Western and US Military power. That would be enough for the Ukrainians to agree to stopping combat. That's going to be very tricky, though, because the Ukrainians are wary of the Russians using any kind of ceasefire or pause here, negotiated pause in hostilities to sort of regroup and refresh and then push on in a year, year and a half time with another invasion. So if you're Ukraine, you know, you want some really ironclad guarantees. But on the other side of the fence is Russia. They've wanted, they've not wanted Ukraine in Naito at all. They don't want Naito's encroaching their borders any further than they view it has. And so any kind of security guarantees that are Naito like, are going to be concerning to the Russian side. So this is a very tricky issue today.
- [05:02]
Scott Wapner
You also get a sense that the President of the United States is growing a bit frustrated with the way that his meeting with Vladimir Putin was portrayed. You had the social media post from not that long ago, a couple hours, I think, in which you mentioned it earlier, where the president said, I know what I'm doing. We can. We can show that you can. You can speak to it. But also the way that that meeting in Anchorage was framed. A headline in the Wall Street Journal, for example, over the weekend said, quote, putin returns to Moscow with air of triumph after summit. That essentially he got exactly what he wanted, a red carpet rollout. He was treated like an equal. He was put into the presidential limousine. So now what does President Trump have to deliver in his own mind in this big meeting today?
- [05:52]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, no question. That was a propaganda win for Vladimir Putin at home. He can show his domestic audience that he got the red carpet treatment, all the pomp and circumstance, the ride in the limo and everything else on US Soil. He didn't have to give up anything for that. And it didn't seem to give up anything in the negotiations. The president coming out afterwards in a very short and terse news conference, side by side with Vladimir Putin saying, we just didn't get there. President Trump saying, we made progress, but we couldn't get all the way there. So Putin, you know, all smiles in the limo on Friday, and we'll see whether he's all smiles at the end of this meeting today. Clearly, the European leaders are here to demonstrate physically their support for Zelensky in Ukraine and push President Trump as hard and maybe as gently as they can. And you get a sense from President Trump's social media post this morning, as you've said, just how sensitive he is to the criticism that he is seeing in the media of his meeting with Putin on Friday. He says, I know what I'm doing. Those critics, he said, are stupid.
- [06:56]
Scott Wapner
Well, Zelensky has a. Has a tough bit to play here. Well, he obviously doesn't want to give up or deal with any sort of land swap, but yet he doesn't want the same situation that he endured last time to unfold yet again. I thought it was striking, too, that in terms of social media posts, his own this morning was complimenting President Trump ahead of time for his strength, thinking that you need strength in this moment to deal with Putin and to deal with the situation at large. So trying maybe to compliment the president before he walks into what some worry could be another lion's den.
- [07:39]
Eamon Javers
Yeah. Zelensky going the flattery route there and using that word strength several times. It's a word that Trump likes. He likes it when it's attributed to him. Zelensky saying American strength, President Trump's strength are going to be the key here in this negotiation. And so the question is, what does? And there you see the post from President Zelensky this morning saying President Trump has that strength, talking about peace through strength. And we have to do everything right to make peace happen. But it's the cost of the peace here that's at issue in these negotiations. Scott, what does Ukraine have to give up? What, if anything, does Russia have to give out? When you talk about the idea of land swaps, you know, there's not that much land to swap. Right. Ukraine doesn't control very much Russian territory at all. So if they're going to swap, it's just Ukraine giving away land that they've lost militarily through, through the course of three years of combat now. And that's not going to sit well with folks in Kyiv.
- [08:36]
Scott Wapner
The security guarantees are obviously a key component of all of this. As you know, some of which the president has, has seemingly scoffed at in the past. The idea that he would be willing to, to do that. Now, there appeared to be somewhat of a breakthrough on that front over the weekend where the special envoy, Steve Witkoff suggested that that was something that was potentially agreed to in Anchorage.
- [09:03]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, he did suggest that that was one of the behind the scenes agreements that they were able to come to with Putin, that Putin would accept some sort of security guarantee. The trick is the definition of that. What does that actually mean? Does that mean American troops back backstopping Ukrainian troops in Ukraine? Does that mean German troops backstopping Ukrainian troops in Ukraine against Russians? Or is it something short of that, you know, air power, artillery or something else? I mean, how you define that goes a long way to whether the Russians will accept it and also to whether it will be practically effective as a deterrent. And then worst case scenario, actively effective in any kind of military confrontation that erupts, you know, a year or two years from now.
- [09:46]
Scott Wapner
Okay. I mean, we'll come back to you as necessary. As things start to unfold there at the White House, it's not only a big day in Washington, it is a very big week here on Wall Street. Markets are getting ready to keep their eye on Jackson Hole, Central bankers gathering there for their annual get together. We'll discuss all that is at stake. For stocks with me for the hour, Joe Chernova Shannon Sokotia, Jim Leventhal and Steve Weiss. We will take you to the markets here, give you a picture again on what's happening. We're modestly in the red. Joe, you really do have a feel that this is going to be a wait and see, a wait and hear. We need to hear what the Fed chair is going to say about the path forward for interest rates before I think we're willing to place our bets in any large degree around this market from here.
- [10:31]
Joe Chernova
I think you're always trying to understand what's your risk in the market when you're investing. And I think the risk in thinking about Friday is that the chairman's words are not in rhythm with the market expectation. I'm not sure you're going to get what we got one year ago. One year ago, the chairman stepped in front of the microphone and said, we are at a moment, we are at an inflection point where we're going to pivot from focusing on inflation to focusing on the labor market. And in fact, with that pivot, we will be cutting rates potentially in September. I'm just not sure you're going to get that succinct a message on Friday. And that's somewhat the risk and the risk that you have to understand that will present four weeks thereafter where volatility might be elevated. And I said last week, if you want to kind of think about reshaping your risk in a portfolio that's long, maybe you go out and you buy some volatility, that's a smart play and you hope that you're wrong. But I think that's the one negative about Friday that you have to understand that you don't get the clarity for the next four weeks because his words are not in rhythm with the market.
- [11:40]
Scott Wapner
I mean, even, you know, Shannon, if you, if you get clarity, but the clarity is the continued sort of balanced view of where they see the risks lying evercore. ISI talks about that today and suggests you could get a 7 to 15 pullback into October. If we're left with this view that, hey, we don't really know what's going to happen in the months ahead, whereas we were pretty convinced that we were going to get at least one rate cut, you may have a different story to deal with in this market, especially.
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Shannon Sokotia
After the July nonfarm payrolls report, I think everyone felt like that was, that's where you started to hear this cacophony around 50 basis point cut in September, which our view at Neuberger was that that was definitely not the base case scenario. But I think the challenge is that if you look at the last eight weeks, six of those weeks, the S&P 500 has been higher. Although you know, we've seen all time highs in the S&P 500 in the NASDAQ. We've also seen Scott, last week we saw a really nice rebound in small cap stocks as represented by the Russell 2000. So you know, the challenge is here is that you are looking perhaps not only for Powell to support some of the language that's come from Waller and Bowman, more importantly, you're actually looking for him to deliver a much different performance than he did in the last Fed meeting. At which point multiple during multiple points during that press conference, equity markets got very skittish about the potential for rate cuts not coming and not well he.
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Scott Wapner
Definitely, he, Powell, the chair obviously had a more hawkish bent in the last meeting, which is what you're referring to, to why the market reacted the way it did. Jimmy Goldman today says if you look at the prospects for slowing job growth, they're still on the case for three cuts this year, this year and two for next. And by the way, Barclays today also out with their projections looking at a single rate cut in December. So again, what the market maybe thought was a September beginning, followed up with maybe an October, October and then December. I've had calls for none this year, Goldman's three, this one, one. It just shows you nobody has a good handle on what's going to happen.
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Jim Leventhal
It's a good point and nonetheless I'll give you my opinion that I think the Fed should cut Scott, and just, you know, let's take it one step at a time. They should cut 25 basis points in September. I'll give you three reasons why. As Joe pointed out, the market is not in sync with where the Fed or at least Chairman Powell head has been recently. The two year yield is screaming that the Fed should be cutting. Second reason is the data supports it. And you know Shannon, you pointed out that jobs report, obviously we know what happened with PPI last week, but the Fed and Chair Powell himself has said that he thinks that it's going to be a one time price increase and maybe that's what we're seeing. The last thing most importantly is politically I think it's wise if he doesn't cut by 25 basis points, throw a bone for crying out loud. President Trump's going to come after him hard. He's not going to pull any punches. Chairman Powell and the Fed Open Market Committee stood their ground in July. Bravo. Don't do it for too long.
- [14:45]
Scott Wapner
I mean, he, I'm trying to figure out, like, what more could the president say?
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Jim Leventhal
He could actually take action. He could actually take action and say.
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Scott Wapner
You think if he doesn't, if he doesn't cut rates in September. Yeah, the president would fire him.
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Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I do. Now, I don't know that. I'm not stating that with factual evidence. It's the future, but I do think we're on the thin edge in terms of Fed bank independence and I wouldn't risk it here.
- [15:11]
Scott Wapner
Maybe this is why Wolf today says they wouldn't be surprised to see choppy sideways trading persist into months end. I'm just looking to have the luxury of having a shot here of the White House where a vehicle has just passed, pulled up as we await these arrivals for these meetings that are taking place today. And there is a greeting, if we can see that now, that is Mark Ruta. He's the secretary general of NATO who's just arrived. And we, as we said, over the course of the next 45 minutes, we do expect to see many more of those European leaders showing up at the White House, culminating, of course, with President Zelensky of Ukraine himself, which is going to be the moment that everybody is waiting for, whether you actually see the president greet him or you see just like Mr. Ruta entering the room and will presumably be greeted on the, on the inside of the White House. But we'll see that when we do. Steve Weiss, I'll come back to you here or I'll go to you, and I appreciate your patience on the notion that, you know, all of these unresolved issues that we've just discussed relating to rates and the Fed, that it's going to be choppy, if nothing else, because we just need some degree of clarity before we're willing to put that next batch of cash behind a purse. A specific view in this market.
- [16:43]
Jim Leventhal
I.
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Steve Weiss
Think that's absolutely right. And the speech coming up on Friday and then the Fed meeting decision on September 17th. There's so many agendas that are unlike any other Fed meeting where it's mostly about the economy and the confidence of the Fed chair having in his viewpoint now, I think he's still got his viewpoint. I think the market is clearly set up for a cut. And I'm not talking about what the bond market's predicting with futures would show more than 90%. But because of that, that's already reflected in the market and that's already reflected in the NASDAQ and the S and P meeting, meeting new highs. So what I'd say the biggest risk is obviously to the downside if Powell doesn't play into that narrative. And I believe that because this is his last speech at Jackson Hole before his term expires, that he's probably going to focus on giving it back to Trump and talking about Fed independence, which he firmly believes in, as well as what's transpired during his term. So I don't expect to hear a lot about, you know, what he's going to do or any hints about what the Fed may do in 17, particularly since there's so much data between now and then. So that comes back to your scenario about very choppy markets, which I believe is what you're going to see. You may see some minor new highs, but it wouldn't be, it wouldn't surprise me, depending upon the dialog going forward, if you also see some give back in the market. But I don't think, you know, you can see whatever, you know, down 15% after Friday or any major move.
- [18:28]
Scott Wapner
No, I mean that's, that sounds a little extreme. But you know, this time around, the Fed chair's words are going to be parsed so closely just given, you know, there was a moment less than a handful of days ago, seemingly where the market felt like it was well over its skis on the belief that you're going to get a 50 basis point cut. And then you had the inflation data come in hotter, one report after another. Right. So, and that changed the calculus, which is why now we have parse everything he says so dramatically. And maybe the biggest wild card hanging on, on the language of the Fed chair is this belief that the broadening trade was, was alive and well. Remember last week, you know, small caps had an incredible week. Even with the pullback post no 50 cut belief, they still had a great week. And then, you know, many of the cyclical areas of the market, banking on the idea that you're going to get them, the s and P 493 banking on the idea that you're going to get them, maybe that is most at risk this week.
- [19:31]
Joe Chernova
Yeah, and I said before, his words may not be in rhythm with the market, understand the market still overwhelmingly believes that you will get that rate cut. August 4th, the probability was 97%. After August 15th it fell into the low 80s. I think the challenge for the broadening out thesis and why I'm somewhat skeptical, two issues at hand. First of all, in this period where you might not have defined clarity on what the policy is going to be at the next meeting. You are going to get earnings from Nvidia. And I expect those earnings to be good. And that if they are good and you get a follow through, favorable response, that's not going to play into the hand of the market broadening out. Secondarily, if you get what I would term a reluctant cut from the Fed in September, I think you need more than a hawkish cut or a reluctant cut to believe that you're going to get that broadening out. So I still think you stay mid cap, large cap. I'm not sure you want to trade down just yet until you're actually getting the evidence that you're going to get a rate cutting cycle.
- [20:33]
Scott Wapner
Okay, we're seeing the UK Prime Minister Starmer now arriving at the White House. Clearly you see there Eamon Jabbers, you're still with me. So now we're getting some of the other leaders who are going to be taking part in this meeting today. And if you can just speak to how extraordinary really it is, and you touched on this at the top, how hastily this was put together and the level of leadership that has now assembled at the White House to try and find a solution to what's happening in Ukraine.
- [21:02]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, you struggle to find a precedent for this, Scott. I mean, the level of leadership here is truly extraordinary. And the other thing you note about sort of the protocol of the way this is rolling out now is that there's a defined order of arrival here. Each leader is being greeted at the South Lawn, not being greeted by President Trump, though that's an honor that's being reserved for President Zelensky this morning. So on the South Lawn, all these leaders will arrive and there you see motorcades rolling through Washington, D.C. i can tell you from personal experience, Scott, that it's been one motorcade after the other all around town all through the morning. Today, with this many world leaders gathered in one city at one time, traffic can be a bit of a nightmare. The president will greet Volodymyr Zelenskyy here on the North Lawn of the White House at that familiar West Wing entrance. As Zelenskyy's vehicle pulls up to the West Wing. And so much scrutiny of every little detail of this, including, and maybe especially you know, what Volodymyr Zelensky is wearing when he arrives here to the White House. You remember there was criticism of him on the right in the United States for not wearing a suit to the White House last time. Will he be wearing a suit? Will he be wearing a tie? Will he be wearing some hybrid kind of outfit? He has wanted to wear those military style outfits since the invasion to emphasize that he is the leader of a nation at war. But this White House in protocol, may demand a tie for the occasion. So we'll see about all of that. How solicitous is Zelinsky willing to be here? And what is the message from these European leaders as they arrive? And there you can see the honor guard still on point. We expect that Emmanuel Macron will be the last of the leaders to arrive here. So we're still watching for that.
- [22:44]
Scott Wapner
Scott, look like we saw the Finnish flag on the front of the vehicle that we were just showing as President Stube makes his way towards that driveway as well. In some of the commentary leading up to today, Eamon, you know, I read some actually referring to this as the most important meeting for the future of Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union because of the belief from these leaders that if you don't stop Putin now and if you don't stop him here, where else is he likely to go?
- [23:18]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. The question is, you know, what is the future of the Baltic states, What is the future of the Nordic countries, What is the future of the rest of Ukraine? All of that is at stake here as this high stakes meeting is unfolding here at the White House. And just one sort of, you know, point of, you know, playing tour guide here a little bit in this shot that we have up now, you can see in the background there the new flag pole that President Trump put up with the enormous American flag. The president is very proud of that, very proud of the optics and the patriotism surrounding that. And he enjoys there you see the enormous American flag here on the north side of the White House as well. That's also new. This is a president who puts a lot of stock in the optics of what we are seeing here. And the display of American power that we saw in Alaska, too, the overflight of the B2 stealth stealth bomber over Vladimir Putin's head, posing Putin between those two F22 Raptor jets, the F35s that flew over the meeting site in Alaska, all of that choreographed to show, you know, there is, you know, might behind the pomp and circumstance here as well to a person.
- [24:29]
Scott Wapner
It's been said too, that the Europeans probably realized that the chance of Putin, Putin leaving without getting any bit of territory that he has come for is unlikely at this point. In the same regard, the idea that Zelenskyy is going to be able to fend off that part of the conversation is going to be very difficult. And nobody wants an endless war either. So it just, it's a complicated matter that they're going to have to wade through. And if any serious answer comes out regarding those questions at today's meeting.
- [25:09]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, look, I think both leaders, Putin and Zelensky, will be constrained by their domestic politics. Right. I mean, there is only so much that Putin can walk away or can leave on the table here without facing some severe repercussions at home, even though he controls that political system top to bottom. The Russian people have sacrificed enormously in the course of this invasion. Their economy has been badly damaged. The loss of life is, you know, by some estimates a million people in this war so far. You know, all of that means that there's, there will be pressure on Putin to come away something more than empty handed here. And for Zelensky, the same thing, the sacrifice by the Ukrainian people, the amount of damage, the civilian deaths, all of the, all of the military call ups, all of that, you know, in addition to being heartbreaking, does put pressure on the Ukrainian president. Although some polls we've seen of the Ukrainian people do seem to indicate more of a willingness to entertain a negotiated solution to this rather than, you know, continued combat more or less indefinitely, which, you know, given the contours of the war right now, could be, you know, where this is headed if it's only a military solution at this point.
- [26:21]
Scott Wapner
I mean, you can forgive the Europeans too, too, if they're wary of making any kind of deal with Putin because not only do they not trust him, but they know in high levels of US Government that there's that lack of trust as well. And they would only point to a comment that the current Secretary of State, Marco Rubio made back in 2022 when he said, quote, you can't cut deals with guys like Putin. Well, we find ourselves in a situation where that is exactly what we are trying potentially to do. As we look at the Italian Prime Minister Meloni's vehicle pull up, we expect her to get out momentarily. As you entertain that question, Eamon.
- [27:05]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, I think that's right, Scott. And you saw, as we watched this greeting here, you saw Marco Rubio on Meet the Press yesterday. And his sort of his argument post Alaska is that the Ukrainians need these security guarantees, which is something that the US didn't necessarily support earlier this year in 2025. But the Ukrainians need them because they need to be reassured that ultimately there's not another invasion coming from the Russians. Again, you know, a ceasefire or pause here could just be a chance to regroup and rearm and get reset for the next invasion. The goal here of the Ukrainians, certainly, and the west more broadly is to come to an end to the armed conflict here.
- [27:49]
Scott Wapner
That's not simply that you want to take us through. Once again, we're still awaiting the arrival of the German Chancellor Mertz and as you said, Eamon, the French President Macron expected to be the last of the arrivals before Zelensky makes his way up that driveway and into the White House as well. Just what we should expect through the remainder of this afternoon. They're arriving now and then what happens?
- [28:16]
Eamon Javers
Well, what we're told is that the European leaders are going to participate in a lunch inside the White House. Not clear who from the US Side is going to participate in that lunch and when they'll get their first chance to talk to President Trump. But that Volodymyr Zelensky will be arriving after the completion of these European arrivals on the south side of the White House, which is what you're looking at right now here where I'm standing on the north side of the White House. Zelenskyy will arrive and he will be greeted by President Trump as these leaders have not been for their arrivals. And then he will engage in a one on one meeting with the president in the Oval Office with presumably their staffs and aides as well. Not clear if any of the European leaders will be invited into that session. In the Oval Office, there's a separate multilateral meeting with all of the leaders that's on the schedule. But sometimes these things are fluid. The events in Alaska did not go exactly as we were told they would go. There were different scheduling items. You know, who appeared when and how long everything lasted. It was very much in flux on Friday and my guess is it will be in flux here today. Depending on how these conversations go, depending on sort of the volatility of the moment. That meeting between these two leaders back in February went off the rails pretty quickly, pretty early, and the rest of the events of the day were canceled. So does that happen here or do we cue to a more sort of business as usual schedule? You know, all of that is, is pretty much up in the air at this point, Scott.
- [29:43]
Scott Wapner
I also wonder if we've gotten a little bit of a preview from the President of the United States himself with that social media post, Eamon, that I know you saw last evening after 9pm where President Trump said, quote, president Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight, seemingly putting the onus on Zelensky to make the decision to end this war rather than the person who initiated it in the first place.
- [30:14]
Eamon Javers
Right. I mean, the answer is that Vladimir Putin can also so end this war at any moment by withdrawing his forces back to his borders. Clearly, he's not going to do that. I mean, too much has been sacrificed by his country for him to do that at this point. And the question is, you know, who is the US Putting pressure on here more, Russia or Ukraine? The European leaders are here to help ensure, in their view, that the US Puts more pressure on Russia than it puts on Ukraine and to sort of backstop Zelensky by showing a united front. We'll see what happens inside the room. I mean, I think that social media post by President Trump earlier today, looking at the media criticism that he has gotten since Friday, saying that the media is accusing him of failing. Even if he got Russia to pull back and give up territory, the media would declare it a failure, saying his critics are stupid, don't know what they're doing, saying he knows what he is doing. He says, I know exactly what I'm doing. And I don't need the advice of people who've been working on all these conflicts for years and who were never able to do a thing to stop them. They are stupid people with no common sense, intelligence or understanding. I mean, the tone of that is pretty aggressive and prickly. And so this is a president who's responding to what he sees as criticism of his efforts so far by saying, the people who are criticizing me are stupid and don't know what they're doing. That's the mood as we go into these meetings. So, you know, how successful will these meetings be with that kind of emotional backdrop? We'll see.
- [31:42]
Scott Wapner
It seems no doubt, though, that these European leaders show up wary of what happened in Anchorage, if not shaken by it, thinking that they, they may have had, as I said, a pretty important seat at the table, only for Putin to get the red carpet treatment. Now they're potentially second guessing whose side the President of the United States is truly on after witnessing what they did. It was inescapable. And it was hard to believe what you were looking at in some respects in Anchorage, Eamon, with Putin and the President of the United States sitting in the backseat of the presidential limousine.
- [32:25]
Eamon Javers
Yeah. And I'll tell you something, Scott, just sort of the color of what you can see in the West Wing here, there are a lot of pictures of President Putin hanging President Trump hanging on the walls of this White House. And they update them fairly frequently. And just this morning I was in the West Wing and I could see that the staff here were getting ready to put very large pictures of President Putin and President Trump up and hang them on the walls. That's a sign that they see this as a successful outcome on Friday as something to be proud of is Trump standing next to Putin. And that's something that will probably make European leaders wince if they see those pictures on the wall when they enter the West Wing here.
- [33:05]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, as I think we, we are getting President Stube of Finland here. Eamon, as you said, these motorcades have been going through downtown D.C. which I might add as well, you know, in terms of the optics of all of this, and you live down that way now and you can comment on this for certain, that as these leaders are winding their way through downtown D.C. there is a military like presence in parts of Washington, D.C. given the actions that President Trump took one week ago. There are military vehicles in, National Guard vehicles around some of the monument areas as well. I'm just curious as to, through the, the eyes of these European leaders, what the takeaway of that must be, because it is different.
- [33:58]
Eamon Javers
It is different. And you see a lot of fatigues walking around downtown D.C. particularly over at Union Station near CNBC's office over on Capitol Hill. You can see, you know, Humvees and military vehicles parked in front of some of the major monuments and locations in downtown D.C. that's all part of President Trump's effort to combat crime in downtown D.C. but that will lend some atmospherics as well. As we're watching these scenes, I think the U.S. army honor guard there brought up the French flag. So I think Macron is about to be greeted and the Marines there will open the door to his vehicle and he will have seen a lot of that as he rolls through downtown D.C. coming, coming in from Dulles Airport.
- [34:41]
Scott Wapner
Is there a symbolism to why President Macron would be the last to arrive, as you laid out at the very beginning here?
- [34:50]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, that's a good question, Scott. I don't know the answer to that, but Macron has been one of the fiercest defenders of Ukraine and willing to sort of go out on his own in a fairly aggressive way in terms of defending Ukraine against. And so maybe there's some reasoning for this there, but no one at the White House has given us any guidance as to how this order was selected.
- [35:14]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, we'll see how all this unfolds today. Eamonn, thank you very much. We'll come back for sure if we do see President Macron arrive and that limousine pulls up that driveway as we have a busy day and you do as well as we expect. And then of course, top of the hour, which is less than 25 minutes or so from now, less than 30 for sure that President Zelensky himself will arrive there and that will be the optic moment of the afternoon for sure, given what happened. Oh, you know what, Eamon, are you still with me?
- [35:50]
Eamon Javers
Yes, I am.
- [35:52]
Scott Wapner
The vice President, by the way, who's been vacationing in the UK Did I read correctly that he is going to be in the room as well today? He's going to be back in the White House because it was so notable, his presence the last time around?
- [36:09]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, I mean that is my expectation. And he was the most aggressive person in the room. And there's been a lot of questions after that in sort of the post game analysis. Was that moment with Zelenskyy planned? Did JD Vance go into that meeting intending to sort of provoke an incident to break it up, or was that spontaneous? You know, we don't know the answer to that fully, I don't think to this day. We're also seeing another post here, I'm just looking, Scott, on social media from President Zelensky as we're talking here. He says we understand that we shouldn't expect Putin to voluntarily abandon aggression and new attempts at conquest. That's why pressure must work and it must be joint pressure from the United States and Europe and from everyone in the world who respects the right to life and the international order. We must stop the killing. Fairly lengthy post here from the president of Ukraine ahead of his arrival here at the White House in less than a half an hour's time. Scott?
- [37:09]
Scott Wapner
Well, because, you know, just look, quite simply, I think there are those, whether it's Zelenskyy himself or, you know, the members of Europe and the European Union and these other leaders who are there wondering who President Trump is putting more pressure on to come make a deal and who's going to have to give up more to try and get something out of today's meeting.
- [37:35]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, and there's a real question here, Scott, as to what President Trump actually wants out of this. I mean, what he has said is he wants an end to the killing, he wants to bring peace. The president views himself as somebody who is a unique dealmaker in a unique position to bring warring sides together. He's very proud of his efforts to solve conflicts in other parts of the world. This is the one that's bedeviled him. This is the one that he hasn't been able to solve, even though he promised to do it on day one. He has admitted this is much more difficult than he thought. And the question is, what does he actually want? What set of affairs does he want to see post war? Does he want Putin strengthened? Does he want Zelensky strengthened? What's the United States position in all of this that is a little less clear other than what he has said about wanting to bring peace and wanting to bring an end to the horrific killing. I mean, thousands of people a day continue to be killed, civilians and military in Ukraine. And obviously the humanitarian scale of that, you know, can't be dismissed. But what is the ideal post war setup from President Trump's perspective? He hasn't really articulated that in terms of his strategic vision.
- [38:46]
Scott Wapner
All right, we're going to watch these pictures unfold. Eamon, you're going to stay with me for the moment when the French president does arrive and we'll just bring it back here to Wall street, get you caught up on what's happening in the market in what is a very big week, clearly for investors given what's happening out in Jackson Hole later this week. Jimmy, I'll go to you, I mean, just on the idea as we await for more arrivals that the broadening trade is the one that is going to be under a microscope this week and we may get some real answers as to whether there's durability there by the end of the week. Tony Pascarello, Goldman Sachs today says, quote, one specific point to underline here is my lawn slide long standing bias for large cap over small cap. There's good reason to still believe in that fundamental underpinnings of that trade. Now, maybe that's because in his mind you're not going to get the flurry of rate cuts that perhaps some others in his under that roof over at Goldman Sachs do.
- [39:42]
Jim Leventhal
Well, I, you know, personally, as you know, Scott, I threw in the towel on small caps a couple of months ago. Just it was, it was too, too hard. And it was if small caps are going to work or anything other than large caps, it's going to be presumably on rate cuts. But maybe there's an alternate scenario where regardless of how many rate cuts we get or how deep they are, if the economy performs well, perhaps because of trade policy uncertainty going down, perhaps because the one big beautiful bill works, then the rest of the economy Outside of AI and mega cap tech can work as well, but frankly it's just a little too early for that. What I can do and am doing is having large cap stock exposure outside of AI, outside of mega cap and I'll get the same bang for the buck. Maybe not to the same degree as small caps will if we get those rate cuts, but I'll still get that same bang for the buck to a certain.
- [40:31]
Scott Wapner
As what? The same small caps? I thought you make the point that you thought you could get as much bang for the buck outside of the mega caps.
- [40:39]
Jim Leventhal
Oh no, no, no, no, no. I mean, look, the growth in earnings from AI from the mega caps is off the charts compared to the rest of the 493 stocks outside of the Mag 7. It's just night and day. So you still have to maintain that mega cap exposure. What I'm saying though is if you want to take a little risk elsewhere. Right now for me, it's not small caps, it's the cyclical large caps. You can do this with industrials, financials, even energy.
- [41:03]
Scott Wapner
All right, just to keep score here. This is Chancellor Mertz arriving at the White House from Germany. Of course, we continue. Looks to us that the last of the arrivals before Zelinsky himself will be Macron of France. We'll show you those live pictures as we get them to give you an idea of the broadening trade month to date, the homebuilders have been the biggest beneficiary on the idea that rates were going to go lower and that a dreadful trade was going to be reignited. The homebuilders were up 11% month to date. Airlines have done well. Biotech and healthcare, two of the most underperforming sectors have done well. I told you about the small caps, but materials and the banks there too. Steve Weiss. You know, if we take it from there back to the lack of broadening and we focus on the mega caps, where you still have a lot of activity obviously in the market. Torsten Sloke of Apollo calls tech vulnerable OpenAI. Sam Altman today says he sees an AI bubble forming as you have this spending splurge within the industry. You buy any of that?
- [42:13]
Steve Weiss
You know, I wonder what is behind Sam Altman's comments. Is it because he doesn't want to see more money coming into the sector, into the private markets to build competition with his company? I just don't know. I mean, clearly spending is, you know, at an all time high, but you're also seeing the fastest adoption of any technology in history, including the Internet. So look, the valuations are excessive. We wouldn't invest at those valuations, private or public, pure AI. But those companies are also the best position. Why? Because with the shortage of labor that we're seeing because of immigration policies, they can afford to hire labor, whereas the small businesses, and this wasn't mentioned and doesn't often get mentioned, can't. They're depleted of cheap labor, so their margins will suffer going forward. So I'm sticking with the megap tech and with big cap companies, big BCA.
- [43:11]
Scott Wapner
Today says forget the Mag7 quote, the trend is broadening to the pedestrian 493. What's so interesting about this note, I thought today is that they discuss two buckets disruptors and the disrupted and saying they obviously prefer the disruptors. Really? There's a surprise. The disruptors, they include Palantir, Electronic Arts, Viva Systems and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. The disrupted include Adobe. They've sort of drawn their line. They don't, they don't need to see any more proof it's been disrupted and therefore it's dropped into this other basket.
- [43:53]
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
- [43:54]
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
- [43:54]
Jim Leventhal
Well, I think relative to the conversations we had on this last week, I don't think the software trade is dead. I don't think Adobe's dead either. I'm going to reserve final judgment for the next earnings call, which I think is about three weeks away. We'll see how the results are. And you know, I'm not going to, I'm not going to die on this hill. If Adobe doesn't show good results, or if it does show good results and the stock still underperforms, which has been the last few quarters, then I've got to throw in the towel just because the market doesn't care. But I don't think that every day we're using PDF files every day, it just doesn't seem like it's going away. Maybe there is competition out there, but I think Adobe's doing a good job of meeting the.
- [44:34]
Scott Wapner
So you sold Applied Materials, which is coming off its worst weeks since July of 2024. So why do you come to the point where you make that call?
- [44:44]
Jim Leventhal
Because those results were terrible. The guidance was simply awful. Joe, I don't know if I saw your bristle there, but here's why I say that. Yeah, well, okay, let me pass my words a little bit. I mean, the results were fine. The guidance was awful. The guidance came in 10% below where the street was. You can't, you can't do that. And in a sector that should be humming Right now semicap equipment. I mean we're building semi cap fabs all over the world and AMAT just isn't doing it. And it's been disappointing. It's responded negatively to the last six quarters in a row. I've got a question that management didn't give any indication that it was going to be this bad going forward. It hasn't worked and now it's not working for good reason, which is the guidance is terrible. I'm out.
- [45:28]
Joe Chernova
It's working for LAM Research and it's working for KLA Corp. So I do think there's something idiosyncratic about the challenges that are clearly represented in underperformance for Applied Materials for sure. KLA Corp, Land Research, those are two names that we have in the ETF right now and they are executing by the way.
- [45:47]
Scott Wapner
Goldman also. They agree with Jim. They're not believers in the quote death of software bear case either. What about Shan?
- [45:56]
Shannon Sokotia
Yeah, I think the challenge is is that if you look at these incumbent seat based software providers, they need to show that AI is going to help them to create more revenue on top of those seats. And I think that the market is sort of wait and see in that scenario. But the likelihood is is that they're going to figure out and our view is that that will continue to expand to other parts of tech but also to other sectors as well.
- [46:20]
Scott Wapner
Palo Alto they report today, don't they Joe?
- [46:23]
Joe Chernova
They do. Cybersecurity over the last several weeks is experiencing a modest correction. I think a lot of that is predicated on the belief that IT spending potentially pulls back. That's somewhat puzzling in particular when you think about the need for the AI threat and to have that cybersecurity presence. So collectively the group is pulled back. We're going to really need to see very strong guidance from Palo Alto to kind of retain restore that positive momentum.
- [46:50]
Scott Wapner
Crowdstrike by the way, added to the tactical underperform list the target goes to 425 from 450 at Evercore. Isi, what do you think about that call just relative to waiting for these earnings today in overtime?
- [47:03]
Joe Chernova
I own the name personally. The strategy recognized it had a little bit of a deterioration in the momentum factor itself and moved away from it. Before we move away from the software software conversation, I want to mention one name because you mentioned it. We don't talk about it enough and that's Viva Systems. It is a cloud based software company in the health care sector that's performing remarkably well, up 44% here over the last year delivering double digit earnings growth. We hold it in the etf, we don't speak about it enough. I should be talking about it more.
- [47:36]
Scott Wapner
Intuit is this week. Zoom is this week. Oracle. Jimmy gets his prices target up to 287 over at HSBC. And that's a reiterated buy.
- [47:44]
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I mean it's in the sweet spot. It's in the AI trade. It's had excellent results. The momentum is there. Joe, I don't know if this is in the Jyoti or not, but Oracle, I mean, all systems go here.
- [47:55]
Joe Chernova
Absolutely it is. And it's been phenomenal in terms of its performance. Along with names like Microsoft and Palantir, it really is leading the software. It seems like, like you've got this narrow performance and it's getting even more narrow. And it's Microsoft, it's Oracle, it's Palantir, and the rest is kind of sitting on the sidelines.
- [48:14]
Jim Leventhal
I think the only thing negative we can say about Oracle is valuation, but that's not a reason to sell it. The momentum is going to trump that.
- [48:20]
Scott Wapner
This is one of the moments we were waiting for at the White House before President Zelensky does arrive. Can we have a look here? This looks to be the French President Macron arriving here. He is the last of the major European leaders, aside from Mr. Zelenskyy, of course, to arrive for these critical meetings today with the President and these other leaders of Europe. They try and iron out some sort of solution to the war in Ukraine. And we do expect, I think, within the next 15 minutes or so we may see President Zelenskyy arrive at the White House, in which case will of course take you there. We'll slip in a quick break. We'll be back after this.
- [49:06]
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Eamon Javers
Psoriatic Arthritis Symptoms can be unpredictable I.
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Jim Leventhal
Had joint pain and I couldn't move like I used to.
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Eamon Javers
I needed relief.
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Scott Wapner
I got Kosentyx.
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Jim Leventhal
It helped me move better.
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- [51:16]
Eamon Javers
Ask your rheumatologist about Cosentix.
- [51:33]
Scott Wapner
Welcome back. We have a news alert. We go to Christina Parts and Melos for that. What do you got?
- [51:37]
Christina Parts Nevillos
Well, the federal government is considering a potential investment in intel that would involve converting some or all of the company's grants from the US CHIPS act into equity. This is according to a Bloomberg report just hitting the wires. Intel was previously promised roughly almost $11 billion in CHIPS act grant for commercial and military production. The company as of about January has already received a little bit over $2 billion. So it's still unsure or unclear if intel would receive an additional 10.9 billion or just the remaining amount, about eight and a half billion dollars. Bloomberg did the math and at the current market value, that 10.9 billion would actually be roughly a 10% stake in the firm. But you can see shares are selling off. There were 5% lower, down about 4% because that's not necessarily net new money. That was a pile of money that was originally promised to intel that is now going to go to intel in the form of Equity. I reached out to Intel. I still was looking for my phone because I texted but I still haven't heard back in time for confirmation. But this rumor has been milling about for quite some time. Market doesn't seem to like it as much as Scott.
- [52:39]
Scott Wapner
I mean nonetheless it still means the government effectively taking an equity stake in intel, at least nationalizing the company to some degree.
- [52:50]
Christina Parts Nevillos
Yes, nationalizing it to a 10% degree. But what does that do, Scott? Does that actually change Intel's core problem of the manufacturing issues that it has? It buys some time for investors. You saw the stock really run up Thursday and Friday of last week on the news because it's going to bide some some time. But the underlying issue, you need the staff, you need to work on that. 14Amanufacturing process for intel and you know, a handout cash taxpayer dollars is not necessarily going to solve that problem.
- [53:16]
Scott Wapner
That's an interesting story. Thanks for bringing that to us. That's Christina Parts Nevillos. Jimmy, you have thoughts on this whole notion?
- [53:25]
Jim Leventhal
Well, I think Christina kind of hit the nail on the head. None of this helps the core problem for intel as far as the government basically converting debt into equity. All right, that makes sense. I'm just not sure that you're going to get some sort of equity return. Like many of the high flying chip companies. I don't think they'll lose money because the government will eventually make it work for Intel. But this is not a company that's in a good position.
- [53:49]
Scott Wapner
Right.
- [53:49]
Joe Chernova
There were other CHIPS act awards. Does this mean now is this set a precedent? Does this mean we're other companies equity stakes as well?
- [53:58]
Scott Wapner
I mean this one is a big one.
- [54:01]
Joe Chernova
I get it.
- [54:02]
Scott Wapner
But I mean Weiss, you own Taiwan Semi. I mean we wouldn't necessarily be even having this conversation in some respects have there not been such dramatic competition between Taiwan Semi and Intel and how Intel. Intel has just simply at least seemingly fallen behind in what is going on when it comes to the latest and the greatest in the semiconductor universe.
- [54:33]
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
- [54:33]
Steve Weiss
And you know what, when companies fall behind and get that reputation, it's very tough for them to attract top talent and it's tough to keep the top talent. So that cycle continues to decline. I actually don't mind the government taking stakes in lieu of grants because why should they have this money for nothing? I am against privatization, so large stakes I'd be against. But I think Intel's got so many issues right now that's still going to be a long time before they realize the problems those issues provide cures for them because the others keep moving faster and faster. So to me, Taiwan is the best chip play out there, including Nvidia. I put them in that category because they're the low cost producer and everybody depends on them. So Taiwan still not at a valuation where I'm saying got to let some go.
- [55:25]
Scott Wapner
All right, well we'll take a quick break. We'll come back with the finals next.
- [55:31]
Eamon Javers
Hey, I'm Frank and I have Hydrogenitis Superativa HS before starting Cosentyx, I was so uncomfortable with my symptoms, like not being able to sleep on white sheets or wear white clothes. Now I can appreciate the little things.
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Eamon Javers
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- [57:14]
Scott Wapner
Let'S do some calls. UnitedHealth target Weiss goes to 325 from 290. I don't think we've talked to you since it was revealed that Berkshire Hathaway has a position now in the stock, which which is why it's coming off its best week since May of 2009.
- [57:31]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, I reentered the position on August 8th and attitude August 11th. I bought because it looked like something was going on the way the stock was moving. Had no idea that it was Buffett, but makes awfully good sense. I still think the fundamentals without Buffett would make it dead money, but of course It's Buffett. So I expect the stock to move up for a little bit more, maybe 3, 325 is reasonable. And then pause there. They won't resume growth until, until next year. But this point, what was a trading position because of Buffett's buyers turned into a pretty reasonably sized position for me and I'm going to stay there at this point.
- [58:06]
Scott Wapner
Speaking of Berkshire, the target goes to 479 from 485. Hold it, Cowan. Jimmy.
- [58:10]
Jim Leventhal
Yeah. If you actually strip out the stock portfolio, the operating businesses trade very cheaply, like 12, 13 times in total for Burlington Northern, for the energy business, for precision cast parts, etc. It's a very cheap company.
- [58:23]
Scott Wapner
Should we give Jimmy a little more now? Some more love today?
- [58:27]
Joe Chernova
Let's do it.
- [58:28]
Scott Wapner
Cleveland Cliffs. Cleveland Cliffs usually beat you up so badly on this one, but it's having its best quarter since the first quarter of 2022. It's going to snap its five quarter losing streak. So, you know, yeah, it's got more to go. Still have some, some, some omelette on your, on your suit.
- [58:44]
Jim Leventhal
Yeah. Believe me, I'm not puffing my chest out, believe me, but I think it's on track. The turnaround plan is in place.
- [58:50]
Scott Wapner
Give me a final trade real quick.
- [58:52]
Jim Leventhal
Alphabet. If we're going to have a volatile go ahead here for the rest of the week. I feel good about Alphabet.
- [58:56]
Scott Wapner
All right, Weiss, you have a final for me.
- [58:58]
Steve Weiss
Uber's finally moving up. I think it hits a new high.
- [59:02]
Scott Wapner
Shan.
- [59:02]
Shannon Sokotia
Discretionary. Lots of company specific stories to take a look at here.
- [59:06]
Scott Wapner
Okay.
- [59:07]
Joe Chernova
And Joe, a tech hardware name, Amphenol. We've owned it since November of 2020.
- [59:12]
Scott Wapner
Okay, so I will see you again in a couple hours on the closing bell. We should have some interesting things to talk about, not only in this market, but what's taking place today at the White house in Washington, D.C. that does it for us. I'll see you then. The exchanges now, you've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [59:38]
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Eamon Javers
Dealing with hydrodinitis suppurativa HS is tough, but you're not alone. Before I started Cosentyx, I looked at the website and saw it had many years of clinical research that made me feel confident.
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Eamon Javers
Ask your dermatologist about Cosenty.