Stocks on Five-Week Losing Streak 3/30/26

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Stocks on Five-Week Losing Streak (March 30, 2026)
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, Stephen Weiss, Surrogate
Original Air: March 30, 2026

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Main Theme

This episode delves into the ongoing volatility in the US stock market, highlighting a five-week losing streak and exploring the challenges investors face amid macroeconomic uncertainty, war-driven instability, spiking oil prices, and shifting sector leadership. The panel provides a state-of-the-markets analysis, discusses key sectors like technology, energy, and financials, and offers actionable insights and trade ideas.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Markets in the Red and Key Drivers of Volatility

• Current Market Snapshot:
  • All indices except the Russell 2000 are slightly positive; Dow up ~1%.
  • S&P is down ~7% since the war began.
  • No safe havens: Both stocks and bonds have sold off (“6040 portfolio suffering its worst month since 2022” - [03:57]).
• Main Macro Themes:
  • Ongoing war and oil price shock are major headwinds.
  • Fed Chair’s comment that “inflation expectations remain ‘well anchored’” offered temporary relief ([02:14]).

2. Federal Reserve’s Position and Market Reaction

• Mixed Messaging from the Fed:
  • Although the Fed Chair is reassuring, other governors have signaled otherwise.
  • Market is not expecting rate cuts, but is hoping for some if inflation drops following a resolution of the war ([02:26], [03:57]).
• Midterm Elections:
  • Joe Terranova notes: “Midterms will be a referendum on Trump... another headwind” ([02:26]).

3. Oil Price Shock and Economic Risks

• Impact of Spiking Oil:
  • WTI crude surpasses $100 for the first time since 2022 ([04:19]).
  • “You just can’t break that attention that you have to give oil.” — Stephen Weiss ([04:19]).
  • Concern that oil above $120 could induce recession and earnings downgrades ([05:53]).
• Earnings Outlook:
  • Potential for 10% earnings drop if oil prices stay elevated ([05:53]-[06:52]).

4. Valuations and Earnings Multiples

• Forward P/E Compression:
  • Major tech stocks’ valuations have fallen (Meta from 24x to 18x, Microsoft from 27.5x to 20.5x, Nvidia now at par with the S&P for the first time in 10 years) ([14:22]).
  • Debate if they have been “washed out enough.”

5. Sector Rotation and Hedge Fund Positioning

• Hedge Fund Capitulation:
  • Hedge funds are net sellers for six straight weeks, approaching COVID-19 crisis selling levels ([09:14]).
  • “Maybe the selling is getting a little exhausted” — Scott Wapner ([09:14]).
• Tech Sector Weakness:
  • Nasdaq down 10 of the last 11 weeks.
  • Tech needs to stabilize for broader market recovery: “Or this market’s not going anywhere. Absolutely not.” — Scott Wapner ([11:29]).
• Debate on Leadership Going Forward:
  • “What’s going to lead us out is going to be first in, first out. I think it’s going to be technology.” — Stephen Weiss ([15:02]).

6. Stock-Specific Debates & Trades

• Microsoft:
  • Joe Terranova trimmed his position: “…I just don’t see the fundamental catalyst to get it higher... I’m exhausted by it.” ([12:26]).
• Meta/Alphabet:
  • Carrie Firestone holds, calling them “great cash flow companies with great margins” ([13:34]).
• Nvidia:
  • Debated whether it’s at a turning point, facing pricing and competitive risks. “Despite a great quarter, despite great guidance, investors aren’t believing it.” — Joe Terranova ([18:09]).
• Apple:
  • Still viewed as defensive due to cash flow and services revenue. “It’s a consumer staple in there... the moat gets bigger as more people stay in there.” — Carrie Firestone ([21:52]).
• Semiconductors & Tech Cyclicality:
  • Discussion on recent losses in memory and semiconductor stocks and the return of classic sector cyclicality ([23:30]).
• Cybersecurity:
  • Debate if the sector remains a “favored and hyped up group” or is experiencing a bearish phase due to AI competition ([23:53]).

7. Private Credit and Financial Sector

• Private Credit Selloff:
  • Fed Chair monitoring risks closely but sees no systemic threat ([26:11]).
  • Goldman Sachs cited as “best in class” survivor amidst turmoil ([27:46]).

8. Notable IPO News: SpaceX

• Potential Retail Allocation:
  • SpaceX may allocate up to 30% of its IPO to retail, far above normal, with brokerages like ETrade potentially leading ([30:27]).

9. Analyst Calls: Actionable Ideas & Upgrades/Downgrades

• Boston Scientific (BSX):
  • Downgraded but now seen as attractive on a 16x earnings multiple ([34:00]).
• Bristol Myers, American Express:
  • Both cited as “long-term holds” after recent selloffs ([34:29], [35:02]).

10. Evercore Stability List

• List highlights stocks likely to outperform if macro stabilizes:
  • Ulta, PulteGroup, Coca-Cola, Delta, Baker Hughes, Caterpillar, Danaher, Uber, Monster Beverage ([38:24]).
• Panel’s View:
  • Many require positive catalysts (rate cuts, oil normalization) to work; some, like Coca-Cola, viewed as truly defensive ([39:12]).

11. Closing Commentary: Market Sentiment and Positioning

• Michael Santoli’s Take:
  • “You can better handle $102 WTI if yields are going to come in a little bit... There’s a high burden of proof for whether [market rallies] are real.” ([42:24]).
  • Earnings forecasts for semis and energy are “flattering” the fundamentals and may not be sustainable ([43:46]).
• Final Stock Trades:
  • UnitedHealth (“discounted a lot of bad news”), Morgan Stanley (“beaten down too much”), Blackstone (“down 45%, nice growth ahead”), Allstate (“safety of insurance”) ([47:00]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Difficulty of Investing Now:
  • “There just hasn’t been really anywhere to hide. Bonds have been rough. Yields have been backing up.” — Scott Wapner ([00:54])
• On Oil’s Impact:
  • “You can’t take your eyes off of oil… as it moves higher, you concurrent in the equity.” — Stephen Weiss ([04:19])
• Tech’s Importance:
  • “You need to have tech stabilize… Or this market’s not going anywhere. Absolutely not.” — Scott Wapner / Joe Terranova ([11:29])
• On Microsoft:
  • “I’m exhausted by it… I’d rather have a very small position in it than have as big a position as I did.” — Joe Terranova ([12:26])
• Semis Are Cyclical:
  • “This is the life of semiconductors… the cyclicality has returned and they benefited enormously.” — Surrogate ([23:30])
• On Private Credit:
  • “We’re watching it very carefully… We don’t see that doesn’t seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event.” — Fed Chair via Scott Wapner ([26:11])
• On Market Rotations:
  • “We’re relying on relative outperformance… binary obstacles in front of all of these companies.” — Stephen Weiss ([39:28])
• On Market Sentiment:
  • “There’s going to be rallies, they’re going to be violent, they’re going to be tempting. I think there’s a high burden of proof for whether they’re real.” — Michael Santoli ([42:24])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:54] - Episode begins, outlining the five-week losing streak and market overview.
• [02:14] - Fed Chair’s 'well anchored' inflation comments discussed.
• [04:19] - Oil surpasses $100 and its market impacts.
• [05:53] - Risks of recession and market rerating if oil stays high.
• [09:14] - Hedge fund positioning and potential signs of capitulation.
• [11:29] - Tech sector’s critical role in market recovery.
• [14:22] - Tech valuations and the “washed out” debate.
• [18:09] - Nvidia’s historical valuation normalization and competitive pressure.
• [21:52] - Apple’s defensive characteristics in this cycle.
• [23:30] - Semiconductor sector’s recent steep losses and cyclicality.
• [26:11] - Private credit markets and systemic risk discussion.
• [30:27] - SpaceX IPO news and retail allocation debate.
• [34:00] - Boston Scientific downgrade and defense of the sector.
• [38:24] - Evercore’s Stability List and actionable stock ideas.
• [42:24] - Michael Santoli’s midday commentary on sentiment and risks.
• [47:00] - Final trades and closing market mood.

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Panel’s Tone & Attitude

• Cautiously analytical, realistic about short-term risks, optimistic for certain secular trends over the longer horizon.
• Acknowledgement of significant exhaustion and frustration among investors, particularly regarding tech and the inability to find reliable safe havens.
• Willingness to selectively step in on declined names, but generally advocating patience — a “wait and see” approach.

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SUMMARY TABLE: Sector Views & Stock Calls

| Sector/Stock | Panel Tone | Key Points | |------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Tech (Mag 7) | Still favored LT | Valuations compress, but stabilization needed for market recovery | | Energy/Oil | Cautious | Oil above $100 threatens earnings, potential recession risks if sustained | | Financials/Goldman | Selective Bullish | GS seen as resilient, private credit not a systemic risk (yet) | | Semiconductors | Wary | Classic cyclical downturn, investor rotation underway | | Healthcare | Defensive | Seen as a stable bet in high volatility | | Consumer (Staples) | Defensive | Coke, Monster, Costco outperforming, “consumer staple” analogy for Apple | | IPOs/SpaceX | Curious | Unusual retail allocation, market implications unclear |

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Conclusion

This episode captures the uncertainty and cross-currents of a jittery market grappling with war-driven shocks, high oil, and a breakdown in asset diversification. The investment committee leans toward selective buying for long-term, high quality names, especially in tech and defensives, while cautioning against short-term optimism until key catalysts like stabilization in oil and rates materialize. Expect volatility to persist, and stay vigilant for signals of true bottoming—especially in tech leadership.

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For further specifics, see the detailed quotes and timestamped highlights above. This summary has omitted advertisements and non-content sections as requested.

Transcript

[Dan Aronson]

At Janice Henderson, we strive to deliver better outcomes through insight led investing innovation for clients and a partnership approach that's core to our identity. I'm Dan Aronson, ETF Client Product Specialist. I enjoy translating complex ETF strategies into clear, actionable insights that enable our clients to create more robust client portfolios. Janice Henderson, Investing in a brighter future together.

[AT&T Business Wireless Customer]

Not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless, checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.

[Scott Wapner]

AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. I'm Scott Woppner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in, Carl, thank you. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, stocks on a five week losing streak. No signs of an end to the war. We are trading the markets with the investment committee as a always. And joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, surrogate. It's Stephen Weiss. Let's check the markets. We are now green with everything but the Russell 2000. The Dow is trying to get to a 1% move today, about 400 points or so. Let's give you a little state of the pullback, if we call it that since the war began, S and P is down about 7%, a little bit shy of that. The issue, as all of you know, is there just hasn't been really anywhere to hide. Bonds have been rough. Yields have been backing up. Yields are down a little bit today, which is helpful. In fact, the 10 year Steve is down about 15 basis points from last week or so. The Fed chair was speaking at Harvard this morning and said inflation expectations remain, quote, well anchored. That was important.

[Stephen Weiss]

Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

And you actually saw the market tick up a little bit on that and yields tick down a little bit. So that's sort of the, the state of play. How do you see it?

[Joe Terranova]

You know, without that statement, Scott, I'm not so sure we'd be in the green except for the Russell day because we've had other statements, conflicting statements from the Fed that, from other Fed governors that maybe they're not so well anchored. So I think it's positive. But the question is, will he be saying the same thing if the war endures for a little while yet as it filters through. So, so the way I look at the market is, is in the following, that we just don't know what the risks still are. I see some headwinds. I think the fact that we're going to have a good earnings season is well telegraphed and absorbed into the numbers as it was with prior quarters. But we've got a fed that for better or worse only means that it's holding tight and not going to raise. Cuts, I believe are out of anybody's expectations. So if the oil crisis ends, which means the war ends, then you could see inflation resetting and the possibility for some cuts to come back on that would be positive. And then don't forget that we'll get midterms. And to me, midterms will be a referendum on Trump. And let's face it, regardless of Trump's approval rating, midterms always go to the other party from the incumbent. So except for twice over the last how many years. So that'll put an end to his pro business agenda, if in fact that's what it was. And that's another headwind. So on balance, I think that the market intermediate and longer term looks fine, short term, still not ready to put capital back in.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, Joe, I mean, people are smarting over, you know, everything that's happened in the market because as I said, there's this really been hard to find a place to hide the 6040 portfolio suffering its worst month since 2022. That sort of underscores the pain that has existed almost everywhere you look outside of under the mattress.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah.

[Stephen Weiss]

And to Steve's point, you know, we're green today, slightly green, because yields are 15 basis points lower relative to where they were on Friday. Financials are actually the leading sector so far intraday today. And then you have that relationship between semis and software. Software is actually outperforming semis. But Scott, you can't take your eyes off of oil. I'm sitting here as you're talking to Stephen. I'm watching Oil at 1 035. I'm seeing that the S and P bleeds a little bit lower because of that. Today will be the first time that WTI crude oil has closed above $100 since 2022. So I don't know, you just can't break that attention that you have to give oil. And as it moves higher, you concurrent in the equity.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, the, the, the market seems to be, you know, able to get its arms around 100 bucks for assuming that it doesn't go from 103 to 113, 223 to 33 to 43 and 50 if not higher. Kerry, even as some on the street and even within the, the, the US Government are sort of gaming out the idea, well, what if it goes to 200? But that seems, you know, a ways off. There's no point really debating that because it depends what happens in where the war goes. But for now we know what the stakes are. Currently we are trying to figure out how to play it in an environment where yields have been backing up, bonds have been going down and stocks have been going down. What do you do?

[Surrogate]

Well, we know that it's unlikely that the stock market, and I would say all aspects of the stock market can rally sustainably unless we have a resolution to this. Because oil prices at 120plus will lead to a recession and that means earnings are coming down. So the question is how fast do we have a resolution? Okay, we don't know if there's a quasi resolution meaning there is oil at 100, does that mean earnings go down 10% over the next year? I mean right now we've got 17% growth expectations for 2016 and 2017 and we're talking about an 18 multiple right now. If earnings go down 10% from there and the market goes down another 5% then you're again, let's say 18 times earnings. 17 times earnings we think is the place that you can buy the market because there will be an end to this at some point. If you think about last year, that's

[Scott Wapner]

exactly what the people who are trying to remain positive are really hanging on. The idea that the, the multiple has already addressed to 18, 19 times around 17% or so. But yet earnings are still projected to grow 14% year over year pretty high. You better have their earnings expectations remain intact or then you have to reassume where your assumptions are going to go.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah, and I think, you know, the key is the sustainability of this oil increase. Right. Because if it does come in in the next few weeks, we will then discount that earnings hit at least for the first next couple of quarters and say okay, the long term trajectory of oil is at 70 or 80 bucks and that's really a one off thing. But if this is kind of a sustainable, not only are you going to have earnings come down, you're going to have the future earnings come down, the consumer is going to on the bottom of the K shape is going to get hurt. And then the fear is the top of the K shape. If the wealth effect starts coming down, that could have a drastic effect on all the other parts.

[Scott Wapner]

But there's a lot of kuds right built into that. This happens. This could happen. Maybe it's too early to get there now. I know for the sake of conversation we need to have that, that discussion. Well, if this remains this way, then what if that happens and then stocks would ultimately be lower. Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley out with an interesting note today which, which suggests he thinks the correction could be closer to the ending stages surround than the beginning. The market is saying the cumulative probability of the path to resuming tanker flow in the straight are much higher than the recession probability. And we agree, we continue to see 7800 on the S and P as achievable. Assuming a recession is avoided, which remains our baseline. Right, that plays exactly into the conversation we're having. As long as that doesn't happen. As long we still think stocks can perform pretty well. Is that the fair way to think about it?

[Carrie Firestone]

I think it is a fair way to look at it because we don't, we have more unknowns right now, but if there are some more knowns then we look at kind of the, you know, internals, the markets and the, you know, the sectors that have done well and Joe mentioned financials have done well but they were down 12% before that. So you look at kind of the areas of the markets that have really been hurt, whether it's basic materials or some of the others and you can kind of pull from the energy side. So I do think there is some potential there and it's just like you said, could wait and see.

[Scott Wapner]

Right now you have had a fair amount of selling from the hedge fund community to which you know, Goldman desk is taking a look at that and they say there's some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge which if you, if you consider it a contrarian view, it's like maybe the selling is getting a little exhausted from that standpoint. Last week hedge funds net sold equities for a sixth straight week and the fastest pace since April of 25 liberation period, obviously on a trailing six week basis. The recent US net selling by hedge funds, the third largest over the past decade and starting to approach the levels in April, May of 2020 during COVID and to a lesser extent into Liberation Day. So people are trying to look at those signs as saying okay, maybe we're, maybe we're really close to the end rather than the, at the start of something even bigger and more dramatic.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I Don't dispute that. But you also have to look at where the hedge funds came from. I believe going into that, they had very high leverage, like top leverage they typically take. So they're reversing that better, taking that bet down. But look, I think the only thing that really gets down meaningfully is if we do go after Iran's energy assets and put them out of commission because they are a large part of opec, or if we put boots on the ground, that'll be a major leg down. I do expect continued volatility. I do believe that it did just go down. But I still see overvalued. Now, take a look today at the gvs, which I own. FTI Vertiv. All these stocks are going down pretty significantly today. So they're still looking for profit taking in those names. So where the selling is subsiding, like a Microsoft. I guess we'll talk about it later. Where there has been a lot of selling. So the reason I bought Dick's. We can go back to that is because I went. I think it went through the wars already. Stocks down significantly. Look, everybody knows consumers hurt now, so I see upside from there. So. So I still think it's a very tough time to put money to work in the market for the short term, for the intermediate term, depending upon where you are, you can do that. But not in battleground stocks like a Microsoft or in a GeV, which I still think is overvalued, even though I own a Caterpillar.

[Scott Wapner]

You need to have tech stabilize.

[Joe Terranova]

Absolutely.

[Scott Wapner]

Or this market's not going anywhere. Absolutely not. With all the questions hanging over now, the broader economy and the global economy with the spike in. In oil, tech's just coming off its worst week in a year. Right. Nasdaq's down 10 of the last 11 weeks. It's never done 11 in a row?

[Stephen Weiss]

No, never.

[Scott Wapner]

No, it's never done 11 in a row. Mag 7 over that period of the losing streak, actually last week, 800 billion plus thereabouts in market cap wiped from what these stocks have done. Led by Meadow, which was down 11 and a half percent last week, Alphabet 9, Microsoft 5. Let's just get to Weiss. This thing real quick, since you sort of teased it.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

And then we'll move from there. But you trimmed Microsoft. I mean, I asked you the other day. Yeah, the stock's been horrible, whether you were thinking about if anybody who owned it that day that was on the show, anybody thinking about selling it. And you said, yeah, yeah, I've been

[Joe Terranova]

thinking about selling it. For a while, knowing full well that I could be making a short term bottom in it. So I kept some of it, I didn't sell it all. But look, I just don't see the fundamental catalyst to get it higher. Could continue to bounce if the market bounces, but frankly, I'm exhausted by it. The software debate is going to continue for quite some time. I don't like the, the missteps they've had in AI so far. I don't, I don't parallel it to Google Alphabet where they were working and working on it and something came to fruition. So I think at this point, you know, that I'd rather be have a very small position in it than have as big a position as I did.

[Scott Wapner]

Guys, what do you think? I mean some, some would look at this and say, well, maybe this is emblematic that these names have been washed too much. Right. Even as you know, Jonathan Krinski puts a note out as we come on the air today and says now the market's shooting the generals. Right? A necessary but painful development. Well, maybe it was necessary and maybe it has been painful, but maybe enough is enough. You own Microsoft.

[Carrie Firestone]

I do and I own Google and you know, I own most of these and I think yeah, it is a clearing price for some people taking their profits. But I also think that these are really great cash flow companies with great margins. They have levers to pull. So if they see certain things in the market where it's demand, if it's data centers, it's, etc. They have the ability. It's not like they have to go to capital markets all of a sudden to get cash flow which could then in a credit crunch cause issues they can pull back and they still have demand. So I do think I wouldn't sell it at these levels because I think they've gotten down too much.

[Joe Terranova]

Can I just add one thing?

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

I still have similar plays. I haven't shaved Meta, I haven't shaved Alphabet. So I'm well versed in this area of my portfolio. So that's just one. It was just too much.

[Scott Wapner]

The way that the multiples Joe have compressed here leads me to ask the question that I did. Have they been washed enough? For example, at the high Mehta's PE forward was 24 times, now it's 18. Okay, that's a significant comedown in terms of the valuation. Microsoft was 27 and a half. Now it's 20 and a half. Alphabet was 30, now it's 24. We'll get to another one like Nvidia was 25 and a half. Now it's twenty. Nvidia now trades, by the way, at a slight discount to the S and P on a forward P, E or right around par for the first time in ten plus years. It's the cheapest it's been relative to the S and p in some 10 years.

[Stephen Weiss]

So I appreciate Steve's remark that he was still maintaining exposure in the Max 7 because I think that's the right thing to do. First of all, I think you have to look at leverage at all times and look at positioning and understand, as Steve said, we came into 26 with everyone extensively long. We've worked that off. Right now the systematic bias is sitting at neutral. But I think it's a classic example of what's going to lead us out is going to be first in, first out. I think it's going to be technology. I think it is going to be the port in a storm. The safety that's provided by these max first.

[Scott Wapner]

That would imply that technology is going to lead you out. Well, just technology.

[Stephen Weiss]

I think it's universally going to be technology. I think it's going to be some elements of software itself, whether it's Adobe or Salesforce or Microsoft or Oracle. I do think some elements of software, yes, to your point, you have to protect.

[Scott Wapner]

Why you mentioned it. Why did you mention Adobe? Just about just a slip. You just pulled that out because you think that's going to lead you out.

[Stephen Weiss]

Adobe is not a name that I own, but it is a classic example of one of the names that went first in the valuation has gotten incredibly cheap. It doesn't mean fundamentally you resolve all the headwinds that are in front of it. But if the market is going to stabilize and we're going to see recovery, I think it can participate there. I think you're always looking at what are the indicators internally in the market that can suggest the turn. And I don't think it's going to come from continued buying of energy or buying materials. I think it has to come from some of the areas of the market that have been decimated, stabilizing and modestly recovering.

[Scott Wapner]

Kerry Morgan Stanley says it's time to buy Metta. That's the quote on their note. They did cut their target to 775, 537 now, so whatever. But like we're just talking about with Microsoft and some of these others, is it time to buy matter? The stock's just coming off a dismal week.

[Surrogate]

If you bought matter in the past when it's had this kind of drop. The same is true of Microsoft. Matter has had several severe declines. That would be a smart move. There have been two major declines in the stock both of which were incredibly good buying opportunities. And with Microsoft let's remember that it owns half the roughly of open. I don't know what the dilution has been lately. That company at some point will come public. We're going to see the value. That was a smart move for them to make when they originally.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. Although they're now warning of the risks as a result of that. I get it. I'm just open AI.

[Surrogate]

Yeah. But that's what today people are talking about. That will change. That narrative will change and it will be seen as a positive for Microsoft when we are looking at Open Air in a different way. So you know I think people are scared right now but it's an opportunity if you don't own these stocks. I think both are attractive.

[Scott Wapner]

What about Nvidia? Can we discuss this? Unless you have something to say.

[Stephen Weiss]

I want to talk about Apple. I want to talk about.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm going to get there. Just give me. Give me a moment because I don't want to. I don't want to move off of Nvidia. After I read the stat that I did that it now trades at a slight discount or at par to the S and P for the first time in 10 plus years.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

A lot of people said 170 is the line in the sand on this name and that's where it can't seem to get to. What about this stock?

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah. So that's the big debate and despite a great quarter, despite great guidance investors aren't believing it. And not all investors obviously there are lots of Sherald is there but that's, that's the debate. Is competition finally coming? We're actually seeing it coming in some areas. Areas Are their chips too expensive? So that debate it's going to take a while to get it resolved because you do have these well capitalized companies like Matter, like Apple, like Alphabet and others AMD that are working on chips and they've some of them come into commercialization. So that's why Nvidia is getting is not able to move off this level like 175. It got to 180 briefly last week at a bounce because their chips are so expensive that you can come in and price underneath and you may not need all the power their chips have. Assuming the new chips don't have that power which the companies.

[Scott Wapner]

I don't think that's a pretty big, dare I say bear case to lay out.

[Joe Terranova]

Well, but that's, that's the active debate why the stock's where it is.

[Stephen Weiss]

Don't you think? Of all the Max 7 year to date, Nvidia was the one name where everyone said there's resiliency there and you're going to be hesitant to move or away from that position. Last of all the Max 7, I think that's what's in front of us right now. It is the last of the so called generals that we're seeing a recalibration in terms of the valuation and the price performance.

[Scott Wapner]

I don't know, look at the chart.

[Joe Terranova]

The other debate is, the other debate

[Stephen Weiss]

on it is better than the others

[Joe Terranova]

that with their vendor financing, you know that they're financing all their customers.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh well, please. I mean we could, we could have an hour long conversation that's part of

[Joe Terranova]

the conversation as well.

[Scott Wapner]

And the alleged rewards of, of not just them but all of those circular relationships that, that do exist. So Apple, I'll give you that by the way, Melius says it can reestablish itself as an AI toll and it $350 is the price target. They reiterate that and the buy. What do you think?

[Stephen Weiss]

Boy, I sure hope so. Let's, let's hope it could first defend what's going on in the moment. I said last week I bought it at 25250 buying it against the point of reference of the 200 day moving average. Well, guess what, you're now below that 200 day moving average. If you could pull back that chart maybe over the last year and show the 200 day moving average. A critical price point here is January 20th. That's the 243 low. What do you not have in front of you? You really have to get to earnings very quickly. We're a good month away from hearing that to see if the continued recovery in China is underway or not. But I think in video and Apple again I'll reiterate this. I think these were the two names that people were most hesitant to move away from their positions because they believed in the long term story. They believed in the put underneath the market for both of these stocks. And I think what you're witnessing today is that last vestige of that bullish sentiment maybe neutralizing somewhat.

[Scott Wapner]

Apple was only down 2% Surrott over the last week. So much, you know, haterade around this name and the AI lack of story and then you started to have the stories emerge that well you know what, they're actually the only ones who aren't spending ridiculous amounts of money, according to some on AI. So maybe that's a reward now. Maybe they're slowly starting to get their, you know, mojo on part of what their AI story is going to be and the stock has been, dare I say, rewarded for it.

[Carrie Firestone]

And you know, the defensible position of Apple for what you just mentioned, and also the cash flow and the recurring revenue and the services piece, that's one that the others of the Max seven don't have. So I think investors look at this as the safer of the big consumer. It's like a consumer staple in there that you just keep on having upgrades and you distribute and you get bigger and bigger and the moat gets bigger as more people stay in there. So I think that's why you don't see that multiple kind of, you know, the opposite. Right. It doesn't get depressed, it gets, it's still growing, but it's growing 4, 6%. But we know that it's a defensible position.

[Scott Wapner]

You still have issues in tech today. Nasdaq's just gone negative. AMD down almost 2%. Micron 7%, another 7%. Is that right?

[Joe Terranova]

That's incredible.

[Scott Wapner]

Broadcom down 2%. Yeah, there's, there's some of these losses. There's your Micron again. Now pull that back for, Pull Micron back like, you know, like a month just for the sake of 26% since March 18, four weaves down seven and a half percent. Intel's down more than four. There is the mountaintop. They saw the mountaintop at Micron and now they've been steadily coming down ever since. That's a key question too, within, within this market whether the memory trade is, I don't know, impaired for the foreseeable future. SanDisk was down 9.5% last week. Western Dig down almost 5 and Seagate down almost 4. $100 billion in market cap wiped last week.

[Surrogate]

Yeah, but this is the life of semiconductors. I mean, we know over time semis have been cyclical stocks, particularly these semis. So you know, they bypassed it for the last year or two and now we're seeing the cyclicality has returned and they benefited enormously. And investors are saying, oh wait, wait a minute, I don't want to be on the downside.

[Scott Wapner]

Cyber names, are they going to stabilize over the last week? Double digit declines for many of the names there. Zscaler is getting a nice move today. Last week it was down 12%. I saw Palo Alto's Nikesh Arora buys $10 million in stock in the open market. That's an interesting move. Obviously a sign that he thinks his stocks declined too much. The stock's getting a nice move there as well. You sold most of your exposure here. I still feel like this is such a favored and hyped up group. Do you feel like that's changing?

[Stephen Weiss]

No, I don't think so. I think the sentiment surrounding Cyber is consistently bullish.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I don't feel like it has been lately. It's been almost consistently bearish because Anthropic

[Stephen Weiss]

and these new, you know, these new

[Scott Wapner]

tools that Anthropic unveils seemingly every week, one of which has had a negative impact here. It's almost change the bullet, endlessly bullish story.

[Stephen Weiss]

Are the majority of your panelists and guests on the 3 o' clock show short cyber or are they continuing to defend cyber?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, do you have to be shorted? Maybe, but they're defending. You're not in it.

[Stephen Weiss]

I'm not, no, I'm not. Because I'm reacting to price. That's what I do have. It's sell discipline that reacts to price. But the story in the narrative that I continue to hear as cyber keeps moving lower is about the fundamental tailwinds that rightfully exist. But that doesn't mean you can't see a recalibration on valuation.

[Scott Wapner]

And that's ultimately what going on the word rightfully. That's like you making the statement that the bullish narrative is still intact, whereas some question it as a result of AI, these new, new developments. If it's rightfully intact, why aren't you buying any of these more on the decline? Why aren't you buying them back on the declines, even personally?

[Stephen Weiss]

Because there is a dislocation between price and finance fundamentals markets throughout its history will prove that evidence to you and that dislocation can happen over a three week time period, a three month time period or over a six month time period. And I think we're in the midst of a multi month dislocation period where for my strategy I want to sit on the sidelines. I acknowledge and will return when Price proves correct that the fundamentals are strong, but now is not the moment.

[Scott Wapner]

Has price and fundamentals disconnected from one another in private credit because those stocks have gotten punished. The Fed chair, by the way, was speaking this morning at Harvard in which he was asked a great question by by a student, I believe in the audience and gave an interesting answer. He said we're watching it very carefully Looking for connections to the banking system that could lead to contagion. We don't see that doesn't seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event. Now that mirrors certainly matches up with what many have suggested that yes it could get worse, we're watching it very closely. But Surat doesn't, doesn't have to be systemic. How do you see this?

[Carrie Firestone]

I agree. I mean I think you've got the sell off that came first. All of them got hit hard. They are contained in their own different funds. And yes there will be some write downs that we don't see because they're probably private markets. Right. They don't do day to day and I think it took down a lot of the banks, it took down a lot of the KKRS, Blackstones, etc. And really until we see something other than some one offs I think even the Fed's watching it and saying hey yes there is something to watch but it doesn't mean you just have to sell all these stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

But you think the financials like, like broadly have been, have been hit. You, you bought more Goldman Sachs. Do you think it's been unnecessarily punished by some of these issues? Just the broader worrying about the economy or whatever else, lack of capital market activity because of all this.

[Stephen Weiss]

So it's best in breed. It's had relative outperformance to its financial banking peers. I think it thrives in this type of environment of hyperbole, volatility. I think they're the best in class and what they do. I'm sitting on a position since April of 24 at 398. I wanted to add some financial sector exposure. I don't feel to your question previously comfortable enough and there's a strong degree of clarity surrounding the fundamentals of private credit to step in that direction. I have no exposure there. I would at some point I'd probably look at Blackstone. But to me Goldman Sachs is the clear winner in this environment and it's proving itself with the price resiliency that it exhibits on a daily basis.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's take a quick break, we'll come back, we'll get into our calls of the day. I got a negative call that's really hitting the stock that Carry owns. It's a new 52 week low. We will discuss coming up.

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[Scott Wapner]

AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything. Welcome back. We do have some very interesting news regarding the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Let's get to Mackenzie Sagalos with those details. We don't even have a date of the IPO yet, obviously, but retail was said to potentially get a huge slice of this. What do you have here?

[Mackenzie Sagalos]

So Reuters is now reporting that Space X could cut Robinhood and so far out of its IPO as brokerages negotiate for a piece of the offering E trade now apparently in the lead to handle share sales for those smaller retail investors. You're just talking about Scott Hood shares initially plunging on that news, though they've pared losses. And of course that move is getting extra attention because Space X is considering giving individual investors an unusually large piece of the deal, reportedly potentially as much as 30% versus the more typical 5 to 10%. The timing and size of this IPO still fluid, but reports have said that Space X could file that paperwork as early as this week for a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

[Scott Wapner]

We have any indication as to why a decision like that would be made?

[Mackenzie Sagalos]

That's what we're looking into right now. And I'll come back to you with that.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Mac, thank you. That's Mackenzie Seagalas. What do you guys make of this? Anybody have a thought?

[Joe Terranova]

Those are crazy numbers. First of all on the race. I mean, just unbelievable. And they'll probably get it done. Look, he's being very peculiar or particular about how he wants to run this. And he wants a lot to go to retail. He doesn't want to deal with institutional investors. So that's informing a lot of what he's doing in cutting out Robinhood or Sofi. I have no idea why he would do that except that he wants pure retail. He doesn't want to associate it with other businesses, possibly so don't know. It'll be interesting to understand why. But a lot of his reasoning we don't understand.

[Scott Wapner]

So there is a call on Robinhood, Joe, so you must have some level of thoughts. You own the stock Target goes to 130 from 160 today. Still outperform it at Bernstein. Yes. It's obviously been weak of late. They take down their target multiple by, you know, from 40 times to 35 times. Crypto has been an issue, clearly. But what are your thoughts here?

[Stephen Weiss]

So the diversification of the business model, which was one of the tenets for the fundamental support that many express surrounding this company, it's just has not been visible so far in 2026. And as a shareholder, that's really frustrating to you because it seems back to that isolated story about where cryptocurrency ultimately might or might not go. Cryptocurrency is what broke the momentum fever in this stock. The stock was the Stock still up 58% over the last 52 weeks, which is remarkably strong momentum. But it was a triple digit gainer and it was crypto that broke it. You have to be able to see the visibility of the diversification story that this company keeps speaking about. You have to come and see it come into play and defend against the moments where you see that cyclical bear market present itself in crypto. That's when you get the all clear. You don't have that yet.

[Scott Wapner]

The SpaceX story that is moving here, that MacKenzie had, that mean anything?

[Stephen Weiss]

I don't, I don't like Steve. I don't, I don't understand the reasoning behind it. But, but again it's, it's clearly not providing a tailwind that's much needed in this environment. I don't understand the reasoning surrounding.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's move to the stock that I teased before we went to break. It's Boston Scientific. It got downgraded today. Now it was its strong buy and it's only downgraded to outperform. So we're not talking about a tremendous move down by any stretch. The target goes to 88 from 97. So significant upside still from here it's a 52 week low and it's down 17 and a half percent over the last month. You own the name yet?

[Surrogate]

We just bought the name because we thought it had come down so much. And at 16 times earnings, we thought this is an attractive entry point. The device business is solid. They might have some timing issues with electrophysiology and the Watchman device, but we believe it's going to happen because they're best in class. So bsx. Yeah. Tough time to buy it. We wish we had waited, but it's more attractive.

[Scott Wapner]

This pricier Bristol Myers reiterated by Surat. 70 bucks UBS, that's you.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah, I mean, it's a tale of two cities, right? When tech goes on fire, other sectors, like the growth sectors go, nobody cares about pharma now. It's, we've got stable cash flows, you've got a good pipeline. We had a growing dividend stocks up 12% a year. We like this one. We've known it for a while, but it's been a patient story. And, you know, you could see money come out of this if you get the rotation we talked about earlier as well. But we think it's a long term

[Scott Wapner]

hold you've had money coming out of. Speaking of American Express, Wells Fargo reiterates outperformed today for 25. They say buy, buy it on the weakness. What do you think?

[Carrie Firestone]

I like it. I mean, look, they're in the right space with their consumers. They really have this attachment rate of a lot of people buying, not just, you know, the platinum card. And I think it's a sell off just as the cyclical economy, it's the first one to go because if people aren't traveling, they're not spending. You sell now, ask questions later.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Pippa Stevens has the news update for us today. Hi, Pippa.

[Pippa Stevens]

Hi, Scott. An oil refinery in northern Israel was struck during an Iranian missile attack this morning. According to Israel's Fire and Rescue Service, debris from an intercepted attack directly hit a tanker at the facility. Large flames and thick black smoke were seen at the refinery that has been targeted in previous Iranian attacks. No casualties were reported. Air Canada announced today that President and CEO Michael Rousseau will retire this year. Rousseau faced criticism for his English only condolence message after the deadly crash between an Air Canada jet and a fire truck at LaGuardia last week. Canada's largest airline is based in French speaking Quebec. The board of directors said the ability to speak French will be a criteria they look for in the company's next leader. And more than 400,000 KitKat candy bars have Gone missing in Europe. Nestle says the vehicle carrying about 12 tons of the candy bars is nowhere to be found. The shipment disappeared last week while on its way to Poland for distribution. I guess someone has a big sweet tooth. Scott.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, to say the least. Pippa. Thanks. Pippa Stevens. Coming up, searching for stability. One firm out today with an interesting new list of names they think could outperform in the coming months. We'll tell you what they are and we'll give you the trades.

[Stephen Weiss]

Next,

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[Surrogate]

They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs?

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[Scott Wapner]

With the Times.

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[Scott Wapner]

AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.

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[Stephen Weiss]

Foreign.

[Scott Wapner]

Welcome back. Evercore came out with a list today, an actionable one for stability. They suggest of names. Best position to outperform should a more stable, Stable, excuse me, macro environment emerge in April. Ulta, Poltigroup, Coca Cola, Delta Airlines, Baker Hughes. We'll start there. Surround Delta, is it?

[Carrie Firestone]

Delta hit a high of 70 64. Given what's happened to all the cyclicalities of all the other stocks, it's held up the most Planes are still flying. Ed Bastian came out just a week ago saying they're still seeing strong demand. And I think again to the point we talked about before, if oil does come back down this airline trading at 6 times earnings has a much better trajectory than all to other competitors. And the demand is there.

[Scott Wapner]

It's a, I mean it's a gutsy call. You have to have something happen for this theoretically to, to work out Pultegroup another one. Right. Rates have backed up, Mortgage rates have, have gone up.

[Michael Santoli]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

These stocks have come down.

[Stephen Weiss]

You know it's. I guess that's all we have right now in this environment where we have such hypervolatility and lack of clarity. Clarity. We're relying on relative outperformance. We're relying on the fact that Delta has held up. We're relying on the fact that Pulte, relative to a lot of the homebuilders has held up as well. But again there's binary obstacles in front of all of these companies. And for Pulte they need the rate cuts. The rate cuts have to ultimately be coming. We have to have an improvement in the housing environment. Here we are are spring selling season. I'm not so sure how active it ultimately is going to be with the elevated private sector borrowing costs.

[Scott Wapner]

Mortgages, Weiss Caterpillar on the list.

[Joe Terranova]

I wish, I mean you know, to me is for it. I was, I was playing momentum in data centers here. The stock is not attractively valued at this level.

[Surrogate]

So I was very expensive.

[Joe Terranova]

Yes. I wouldn't be surprised to see more downside. You know I'd say those names are all those names on that list pretty much are ones that have bit the dust. So they say they can't go down more is the reason to buy it. Not that they're typically stable names. I don't believe they are with the exception maybe Cap.

[Scott Wapner]

What about Danaher?

[Carrie Firestone]

Sarah, look, a Danaher, Thumb Fisher. High quality businesses really the effect of, you know what's going to happen to the administration of the rfk but then also internationally and government spending. I think these are ones you own for three to five years at least. They're terrific compounders and high quality business.

[Scott Wapner]

What about Uber, Joe? Uber is on this list.

[Stephen Weiss]

No, no, no. Unfortunately I don't see it. Look in the names we read. To me, to me it's, to me it's energy. Uber's broken down. It's energy. It's maintaining your energy exposure. Even if there's some form of resolution, there's oil prices. Prices are not going to implode down to $60 that quickly and return to where they were.

[Scott Wapner]

There have to though they're still going to be challenged. Relief.

[Stephen Weiss]

There's still going to be challenges in front of us as it relates to energy. The consumer staple names, the Coca Cola, the monster beverages on the list, those are the state. That's where you find the stability in the market. And there's one sector that I don't find on this list that I think you should be looking at, and that's health care, because health care provides you that degree of stability in this type of hypervolatility environment. It proved itself in 2020 to the

[Joe Terranova]

bet here was let me find stocks that have been crushed and I don't think we'll go down any more rather than traditionally stable names aside from Coke.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. We'll take a break. We'll come back with Santoli on the other side in his midday work. All right. Welcome back. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Michael Santoli joins us now for his midday word. Is this more to do about yields just getting off the boil than than certainly anything related to the war? Because there really haven't been any significant developments and oil's up.

[Michael Santoli]

Yeah, I think that's the most immediate relationship is, you know, yields coming in a little bit. I do think you can be mindful of this pattern that has been in place for a little bit where you have heavy selling Thursday, Friday, just a little bit of relief on Monday if you don't get, you know, incremental escalation. I think people should keep in mind the S and P was down like 2, 220 points Thursday and Friday. And so you're up 20 whatever today. So I do think that you have to keep it in perspective. But yeah, you can, you can better handle $102 WTI. If yields are going to come in a little bit and you no longer feeling as if you have to fight that front as well and the Fed's going to become hawkish. Everyone recognizes we've had a pretty good reset in terms of prices and valuations and sentiment and all the rest of it. Yeah, I agree. You haven't seen super extremes where it doesn't matter what tomorrow's news brings, but time is kind of a tyrant here. Everybody gets that, too. If you don't get a little bit more oil flowing and more shipping loosened up, then you're going to have something else to deal with. So I think we're kind of holding pattern. There's going to be rallies, they're going to be violent, they're going to be tempting. I think there's a high burden of proof for whether they're real.

[Scott Wapner]

That's true. I mean, super extremes on that Note there's almost, I mean I could say well there's no reason to have super extremes because until the earnings picture changes and it hasn't, why would you.

[Michael Santoli]

I agree with that generally and I've been very, very kind of clear in saying I think the market's been rational in not kind of moving off this idea that this could be somewhat contained and the fundamentals could hang in there. I do think that the earnings forecast in semis going up a huge amount in the last few weeks and also energy are flattering the fundamentals. And so we haven't had any other companies update us or anybody work through the cost increases that are going to happen. And so maybe you have earnings that are a little bit overstated. Therefore P is a little bit compressed beyond reality. I'd also point out when it comes to the NASDAQ people saying tech is cheap, they were tell everyone was justifying 30p6 months ago because these are such wonderful asset light businesses and now they're not, you know, the free cash flow story is gone. So it's a little tougher I think to make the call that they're dirt cheap.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you this afternoon Michael. Thank you. That's Mike Santoli once again. Coming up next we will talk about some stocks that are on streaks. It's not all losing streaks by the way. Tell you about it.

[Surrogate]

Next

[Scott Wapner]

let's talk about some streaks. Lido Swiss nine day losing streak. It's pacing for.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, look I spoke to the company last week because I'm bothered by it.

[Scott Wapner]

Would you say what the heck, what the heck's going on here?

[Joe Terranova]

Corporation. Yeah. And you know, not a lot now they slightly missed last quarter even though I thought it was, it was not event but it's software debate that's hitting them as well. So while a lot of them just know them for the scanners you go through at the airport, it's really that debate. Can what they do be done through AI I do not believe so. But that's what's going on and unfortunately you're going to need a really good quarter to come out of this.

[Scott Wapner]

Seurat Disney trying to snap a five day streak.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah. New, new CEO. I mean it's, it's 15 times earnings. I like it. But the negatives right now are overwhelming. So I think long term investor, you want to own this and buy Costco

[Scott Wapner]

is going for a five day win streak.

[Stephen Weiss]

Joe, it is Costco really strong. Walmart really really strong. TJX only consumer staple name that's better Hershey Corp over that as well.

[Scott Wapner]

What about CF which is trying for

[Stephen Weiss]

5 days to using a 119 stop on my position that I established at 104 on March 2nd. We continue to have challenges as it relates to fertilizer and urea exports. Right now corn Prices are down 10 year, 10% year to date. Seeing a shift in planting go from soybean to corn. To plant corn you need the urea. CF is a producer there. Should continue to move.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a break. We'll come back with final trades on the other side. We've got Rick Reeder from Blackrock with us today. 3:00 clock on the closing bell. Big interview. Get his up to the moment take on future rate hikes. Cuts, something and he's going to say cuts. Well, he sort of tipped his hand. We'll talk to him more about that too. We look forward to that.

[Joe Terranova]

Steve Weiss, an unstable health care name unitedhealth I think it's discount a lot of bad news.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Oh wow. Green across the board. Was the last time we had final trades where it was all green. Feels like it's been forever.

[Carrie Firestone]

Was last time we had green across any Morgan Stanley. I think it's been beaten down too much with the credit and the capital markets activity.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, care same thing.

[Surrogate]

Blackstone stocks 14 times earning is down 45%. Nice growth ahead.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Joey.

[Stephen Weiss]

Hiding out in the safety of insurance in the financial sector. Allstate. No technology names up there.

[Scott Wapner]

No, no. We'll watch all of it. I'll see you at 3 on Closing Bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half time report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report DISCLAIMER Please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer this is

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