CNBC Halftime Report – Stocks Rally (March 31, 2026)

Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Brian Belski, Josh Brown

Episode Overview

This episode centers on a notable stock market rally against an unsettled geopolitical backdrop, focusing particularly on the impact of ongoing conflict in Iran, fluctuating yields, and oil prices. The panel analyzes how market sentiment, quarterly performance, sector rotation, and company-specific news are driving intraday moves. The episode also spotlights individual stock and sector moves, earnings outlook, and what investors should expect as a new quarter begins.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Context and Drivers

• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing war with Iran, concerns about Strait of Hormuz, and impact on oil and tech sectors (00:55).
• Intraday Trading Volatility: Markets remain green despite rapid-fire headlines; economic data (e.g., consumer confidence) was better than expected, and average gas prices exceeded $4 for the first time in some time (01:35).
• Quarter-End Positioning: The last trading day of Q1, with sentiments affected by end-of-quarter adjustments and repositioning after a punitive previous day (02:51, 03:18).

  “I also think the market was deeply oversold. Yesterday afternoon was incredibly punitive.” – Joe Terranova (02:51)

2. Momentum Factor & Market Rotation

• Momentum Under Pressure: Worst month for momentum in nearly four years, with quarterly performance expected to be negative and trend flattening out as systematic strategies adopt neutrality (03:23–04:40).
• Sector Rotation: Financials, healthcare (especially semis) were strong but are now recalibrating. Systematic investors are neutral, neither aggressively long nor short (03:22–04:40).

3. Earnings, Valuation, and Investment Strategy

• Earnings Resilience: Despite uncertainties, several strategists raised earnings estimates. Market is still running above historical trend for economic momentum. S&P 500 multiples have compressed, making many stocks more attractive (05:13–06:53).

  "If we wait for certainty, Scott, the market's going to run away from us." – Stephanie Link (05:13)

• Sector Opportunities: Financials, industrials, and discretionary sectors are becoming cheap; earnings growth and revisions are largely from tech and energy (06:17).

• Valuation Reset in Big Tech: The forward P/E spread between the "Mag 7" tech giants and the S&P 500 is nearing historic lows (11:18–12:41).

  "The reset could play into our favor…Meta's high for 2026, its forward P/E was 24, now 18. Alphabet was 30, now 24. Microsoft from 27.5 to 20.5…" – Scott Wapner (12:10)

4. Company and Sector Spotlights

A. Tech Stocks: Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple

• Meta: Pulled back to 17x forward earnings, yet growth is accelerating; pricing power in ads, and AI integration is boosting engagement (14:57).

  ”This is an acceleration story, a growth story. I'm really shocked that it has pulled back as much as it has.” – Stephanie Link (14:57)

• Nvidia: CEO Jensen Huang argues the market underestimates ongoing growth and market share gains, especially with new partnerships (17:03).

  “We gained share…Our growth in AWS is accelerating…customers beyond top 5 cloud providers now make up 40% of our business.” – Jensen Huang (17:03)

• Apple: Holds up best in the "Mag 7" group; seen as an AI gateway due to the iOS ecosystem and revenue reacceleration (21:49–23:49).

  “All they need to do is figure out Agent Xeri, which I think will happen this year...Apple will extract the tax.” – Josh Brown (21:49)

B. Software Sector

• IGV Buy: Josh Brown highlights his recent investment in IGV ETF, citing an overdone software selloff and faith in industry resilience (25:41).

  “Every time there’s just this big obvious story that everyone can recite...it becomes consensus, I have to lean the other way.” – Josh Brown (25:41)

C. Netflix and Sports Content

• Interest in NFL broadcast deals and further live sports partnerships as a boost to subscriber growth and engagement (30:54–31:20).

  “They are the king of content...it’s going to come down to Alphabet and Netflix with respect to sports.” – Brian Belski (32:31) “They are able to raise prices. They are solidifying the power of the tiers...they’re doing it all.” – Josh Brown (32:59)

5. News & Catalysts Affecting Markets

Intraday Headlines

• Conflict Developments: An unconfirmed headline about Iran being "ready to end the war but want guarantees" sparks a major market move (+700+ points on the Dow; 41:26, 42:29).

  “If the conflict wraps up quickly, are we just to assume that things go back to some degree of normal...?” – Scott Wapner (41:28) “I think it’s as simple as oil versus stocks…market will start to ignore the noise of $100-plus crude.” – Josh Brown (41:46)

• Oil Markets: Forward oil contracts suggest market expects a relatively short-duration impact (51:41–52:11).

  “Going out longer in the curve, you’re seeing significant selling pressure and bigger losses...” – Joe Terranova (51:41)

• Energy Sector: Discussion on rotation out of energy after strong performance, emphasizing difference in subsector returns — upstream and refiners vs. services (54:10–56:48).

  “I’ve been selling energy to be honest with you...the time has come, you take your profits and you go elsewhere.” – Stephanie Link (56:51)

6. Memorable Quotes & Takeaways

Notable Quotes

• “If we wait for certainty, the market's going to run away from us.” – Stephanie Link (05:13)
• “It's not just the valuation reset, it's the valuation reset relative to the future earnings growth that the street is looking at.” – Josh Brown (13:44)
• “He has an ability to communicate very eloquently and simplistically in a way that individuals are able to understand.” – Joe Terranova, on Jensen Huang of Nvidia (19:14)
• “All they need to do is figure out Agent Xeri...Apple will extract the tax...This is the one to watch.” – Josh Brown (21:49)
• “I just thought by Friday afternoon what we were watching was just a wholesale vomit and it really had nothing to do with the fundamentals.” – Josh Brown, on buying IGV ETF (25:41)
• “This company [Netflix] is the king of content…they’re going to be really aggressive.” – Brian Belski (32:31)
• “You never sell your energy stocks...They are your only hedge against unforeseen things like this conflict.” – Josh Brown (54:45)

Memorable Moments

• Jensen Huang's CNBC interview (‘the market’s been getting it wrong’) triggers a recovery in Nvidia stock (17:03–18:11, 50:10).
• Live response to an unconfirmed headline about Iran, causing dramatic moves in stocks and oil (41:26, 42:29).
• Strategic moves: Stephanie Link selling energy stocks after big run; Josh Brown buying software ETF amid sector carnage (56:51, 25:41).

Highlighted Segments (with Timestamps)

• Opening Market Context – 00:55–02:51
• Momentum Factor Washout – 03:22–04:40
• Earnings Expectations, Valuations, and Strategy – 05:13–08:09
• Big Tech Sector Reset – 11:18–14:27
• Nvidia and Jensen Huang Interview – 17:03–19:14
• Spotlight on Apple’s AI/Platform Power – 21:49–23:49
• Netflix’s Sports Ambitions and Stock Case – 30:54–34:20
• IGV (Software ETF) Buy Rationale – 25:41–28:09
• Live Market Reaction to Iran Headline – 41:26–44:31
• Oil Market, Energy Sector Divergence – 51:41–56:48
• Closing Final Trades – 58:11–58:42

Final Trades & Closing Takes

• Netflix – Josh Brown reiterates he added more recently (58:11)
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) – Brian Belski highlights (58:16)
• ServiceNow – Stephanie Link flags as a new position (58:23)
• Apple – Joe Terranova underscores its leadership (58:34)

Summary

In this high-energy, news-driven episode, the panel breaks down the interplay between geopolitical risk, end-of-quarter positioning, and sector rotation, focusing especially on tech, energy, and standout companies such as Nvidia and Apple. The group generally agrees the market has become more attractive after the recent sell-off, with particular opportunities in tech and select cyclical sectors—though caution around the war’s ultimate resolution remains. The market’s reaction to fast-moving headlines—some confirmed, others not—shows how sentiment and positioning are as important as fundamentals in today’s trading environment.