
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to trade stocks as hopes for a resolution in Iran pushes oil lower and stocks higher. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day in an energy and a fintech name. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Jessica Leoncini
At Janice Henderson, we strive to deliver better outcomes through insight led investing innovation for clients and a partnership approach that's
Jenny Harrington
core to our identity. I'm Jessica Leoncini, head of Fixed Income Client Portfolio Management.
Jessica Leoncini
I'm passionate about my role in investments. It allows me to partner with our clients, simplify fixed income, and support them in achieving better outcomes for their clients.
Jenny Harrington
JANICE henderson, Investing in a Brighter future
Jessica Leoncini
Together,
Dr. Guy Winch
men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season, we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, guys, thanks. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the state of the market. Oil drops, stocks rise. We're trading the road ahead with the investment committee as always. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown. We'll take you to the markets. We are, as you know, green across the board board WTI. There it is. It's back though, at 90. So keep your eye on that and thus keep your eye on the stock market. But that's the relationship that matters most of all, as everybody seems to know, oil down, stocks up. Pretty simple. How about another one? Stocks down, Trump put. Yes, pretty simple because Citi today says the so called Trump put still prevails.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I would agree with that. And I think that where we found that Trump put put rather was specifically in the oil market itself. There is optimism certainly built into the tape over the last 48 hours for sure as a May well. I think what you're looking for is the confidence that you can find the evidence that you're validating that optimism with obviously some form of a resolution. So in the interim, you're going to see volumes begin to thin out. We saw that yesterday. We are also approaching the end of the quarter again, that might lead to a little bit of volumes thinning out. So I think you're looking for some tactical setups. I think I found one yesterday in gold. I really think right now, while you're sitting in this waiting period to confirm the optimism, that's really your best weapon,
Scott Wapner
Jenny, you can get an idea that firms are trying to game this out a little bit, think they can start to maybe look beyond it.
Jenny Harrington
Hmm.
Scott Wapner
J.P. morgan's trading desk says they're closing their tactically bearish call and they're moving to neutral now. It's just a move to neutral. However, it does signify what I think is fair to say this cautious optimism that there's going to be some level of resolution in the nearer term, rather than having this drag out and potentially get worse and have oil spike way up yet again. And you know exactly what that would do to stocks.
Jenny Harrington
Right. And I think when we're thinking about kind of gamifying it and playing it out, the way I've approached the last several weeks is to really, to the best of my ability, ignore the politics and follow the economics. And if you follow the economics, that's where you get. Because the economic pain right now or the potential economic pain.
Scott Wapner
I'm glad you use the word potential, because it's too soon to have seen significant economic pain, obviously, going to the pump and paying four bucks, which is where gasoline is now. And if you're diesel, it's a lot more than that.
Jenny Harrington
Right.
Scott Wapner
Certainly in some states.
Jenny Harrington
Right. And if oil really does go sustain at 115 or 180, the potential economic pain is devastating and it's devastating to everyone. It's devastating to, like, everyone in the Middle East. It's devastating to everyone in Asia. It's devastating to us in the US and so when I think about the taco or the Trump pivoting or whatever it is, I really think of that more as follow the economics because that's ultimately where he goes. He goes in the end, I think, towards what's the best economics for the United States.
Scott Wapner
I think you follow the stock and bond markets. I mean, I think those have proven to be the triggers, if you will, that. No, it's not. No, they're not the same. Because as I said, you can't make a call on the economy based on this yet, but you can make a call based on the stock market unraveling and bond yields getting a little bit away from.
Jenny Harrington
I said the economics, not the economy. Right. And the economics of what's going on is devastating for stocks. Right. If oil prices are suddenly at 180 in a sustained way, the economics, 180.
Joe Terranova
I mean, okay, but.
Scott Wapner
But you know what?
Jenny Harrington
That was thrown out there. Say 115. All I'm saying is you follow the economics and say, okay, does this make sense? Like, how does this company work? How does that company work? And then it hits the bond markets. How do the economics work here? Well, it creates huge inflation. That's bad. So you could say it that way. I'm really not talking about the economy. Talk about the economics on a stock, by stock basis, on a company, by company. And that's what you see reflected in the stock.
Scott Wapner
My point is that you've already had a backup in yields that was getting a little uncomfortable. And you obviously had a comedown in the stock market that was getting very uncomfortable. Some would say, well, we didn't get truly and technically and historically oversold like you should. And I said, well, the only barometer that really matters is the one that lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And to that market watcher and technician, we were oversold enough. And that's where the Trump put, as you know, as it was called again today by Citi, prevailed.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah.
Josh Brown
Here's a, Here's a little interesting factoid. When we're talking about economic impact. I, of course, go to what's the earnings impact? Earnings in aggregate for the S&P 500 have been revised higher over the last month. You know, that's a little bit of a head scratcher. That's a little bit of. Wait a second. They've been revised higher for this year by 2% since the beginning of the month. And by the way, that has helped the markets. Definitely. That's a reason we're not down more with oil where it is now. The forward multiple on The S&P 500 is now 20. We were doing a lot of reasonable hand wringing at the beginning of this year with that multiple approaching 23. Now you're at 20 with good growth projected. But ultimately that growth could, could come down if we do in fact, see this continuing hostility, which we can't rule out. Scott, you twice said cautious optimism. I am optimistic. I added to equities on Monday. I bough ebay. But that caution is there. We've got 4,500 Marines inbound into the theater. We've got the 82nd Airborne coming in. This is a president who does not like to bluff, and he's going up against a country that doesn't really back down from any saber rattling. So we're not through this yet.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, no, that's clear, Josh. And I'm wondering, you know, how you, how you see things. It seems pretty simple in terms of what to what to watch. Not to make light of or oversimplify the conflict in any way, but from investing or trading perspective, we do what we do and we look at things the way we do. And looking at that move in oil seems to be the most significant, if not the only thing that matters most of all to this stock market right now.
Jim Leventhal
I agree with everything that you've said. The program is six minutes old and so far, Scott, you've done nothing but drop truth bombs. And I'm not here to kiss up to the teacher, but that's the number one thing on a day to day basis. And if you're a long term investor, it shouldn't matter that much. But if you're trading this market, oil, oil, red stock screen, period, it's no nuance. That's what's going on. That's number one. Number two, the other thing you said, Scott, which Jenny is wrong and you are right, we don't know the impact. We, we know it's a negative impact, but we don't know the extent of the impact of the price of oil on the economy. I'll tell you in six months when we have the third revision to gdp. Scott is correct. It's the stock market. And if you think Scott Besant doesn't call the oval and say, Mr. President, this is Friday. The S&P 500 has just broken below its 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2025. I'm not even saying Trump would ask, well, do I care or not? I think it's instinctive and to me it's not totally shocking. The President has to deal with real time news and information, not just geopolitics but economics. And he doesn't have the economics at his fingertips. He's got opinions, but he has the stock market right in front of him. We know this administration cares what happens with the stock market. We know when it's going up. They view it as a report card of sorts. So I'm not totally shocked that there was like a tweet after the close on the day that we finally broke below the 200 day. I don't think it's an accident and I do think the ongoing talk of maybe a Truce, here's a 15 point plan. I think so long as the market stays green, as that news flows in that direction, you could continue to see that. Here's the problem. Look at the tone of the bounce. You know, what's the leading sector in the market today? The only sector up 1% or more, utilities. You know it's number two materials, notes number two, health care materials. This is not, this is not the environment of 2025. The problem is people don't know what time it is. They want it to be 2425. They want it to be led by cyclicals, they want it to be led by tech, and it just isn't. Financial is the worst sector today. They're actually the only sector Red, as, as I'm talking. So you need to know what time it is and the time that it is right now. We do not have convicted bulls in this tape. They're not here.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, well, it's a good point too, because the convicted bulls, if you want to refer to them in that manner, retail has been bullish and has had a consistent level of conviction about this market. Enough so that at every moment of upset they have been buyers. You have to wonder whether that is changing. Now, based on some information from Vanda Research which says mom and pop traders on Monday notched their first day of net selling of single stocks since 2023. Okay, that came as market rallied. Retail was selling into it. The first day of net selling of single names since 23. So, Joe, what do we make of that? Let's see the significance of it if it.
Joe Terranova
Well, let's see if a trend develops in that direction because that is counter to what the behavior has been over the last several years where retail is buying. So let's get further information over several days, several weeks to confirm that. Josh mentions the tone of the market and I think he infers there's a little bit of a weakness in that regard to this bounce.
Scott Wapner
I agree with that.
Joe Terranova
Let me explain that a little bit further. Had conversations in the last 24 hours with two systematic trend following funds. They both said the same thing to me. We're neutral in terms of our bias. We've been carrying equity exposure to various indexes throughout the world as being long for the last several years. We are now neutral. We flattened it out. Why? Today would be the fifth consecutive day that you close below the 200 day moving average. Now look, the 200 day moving average might mean nothing to you, but if enough people are using it, it's a variable in the market. And for those funds right now that are following that and they are a force, they have now have a bias of being neutral for the very first time in many, many months.
Jenny Harrington
Can I say something on this retail investor? I know I've mentioned this before but like way back when I was an intern and I was interning for Laszlo Brini one of the things that he taught us as interns was that the best contrary indicator was the American association of Individual Investors, and that as a professional, you wanted to go against that. So when I read this headline that retail investors are net sellers and the last time was 2023, what do I think? I think, okay, well, the market in 2023 was up 26%, 25% in 24, 18% last year. So I actually see that as a quite encouraging headline.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. But I mean, I would say, well, if you do, then you haven't been watching the same movie as everybody else in the market has. Well, of years. Right. For the last couple of years, because I usually have a divergent. Retail has not been a contrarian indicator within this market. I'm just saying it hasn't. I mean, whatever you say.
Jenny Harrington
I think I argued this.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. But whatever history may. May tell you, retail has not been a contrarian indicator over the last couple of years. In fact, it's been the right indicator in general.
Jenny Harrington
They are. And I know that we were talking about this maybe a month or two months ago when they all turned very, very actually bullish, or they were some like, huge bullish thing. I think, in general, I think retail is not really the source to listen to for a great indication of where the market's going.
Jim Leventhal
Maybe we settled over the last three year. Over the last three calendar years, the market far outperformed the majority of active managers. And retail investors had been buyers. To Scott's point, every, almost every month, including during the Liberation Day lows, we actually had massive inflows from retail into that weakness. Can we say the same thing about institutional investors? No, we cannot. That's the source of the selling. So I don't look at the quote unquote retail investor as monolithically as many pros do and just say, oh, if they're bullish, it must be the top. That's just not been the right call at all. Retail investors have been bullish and the S and P has been compounding at a higher than average rate for multiple years. And the two things don't always have to be exclusive.
Jenny Harrington
But I'm going to bet you, Josh, like, I don't know if you have the statistics on this. I don't have them at my fingertips,
Jim Leventhal
but I definitely do that.
Jenny Harrington
If you. Of course you do. You're. What is it? What do I call you? Investor PD Brown. Of course you have this, like, what's the average return of the DIY retail investor over the last few years? I'll bet it's less in the market. I'll bet even though they've been buyers, I bet they've messed around. I'll bet they've market timed.
Jim Leventhal
I'll bet we're talking about sentiment and whether or not. But we're not talking about performance. We're talking about saying like when retail investors are buying. Is that when retail investors are showing, let's call it excess bullishness over a prior period, is that in and of itself the same sell signal that it might have been in the 1990s? And I would say no, it's not.
Scott Wapner
I would that's, I think the point that we were making that whatever you want to look at from the Burini days of whenever that was, I'm just telling you.
Jenny Harrington
And you know what else? Like I also look at other things which don't forget there was that Bloomberg article going into this year which said every market strategist expects a positive market this year. Every single one. On sure.
Scott Wapner
But I would, I would not retail. I would suggest that the people, the people who say retail is a contrarian indicator are the people who have thought that for decades and just who can't, can't get their arms around maybe you included the idea that, God forbid, retail investors have been pretty damn smart, enlightened by the amount of information they have access to, the kinds of stocks that they're interested in in ways that they haven't had access to in the past, and they've made damn good investment decisions.
Jenny Harrington
Fine. Okay. And in deference to our viewers, which are probably more sophisticated on average, that's probably true. But I just think whenever you see these big like everyone's going this way, everyone's going that way, it always, it always makes me skeptical.
Scott Wapner
Well, that's a, that's a different nuance than suggesting the retail investor is just an automatic contrarian indicator as you were suggesting that.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Jenny Harrington
And you know what?
Josh Brown
Retail.
Jenny Harrington
Then we go back to. Sorry, let me just say one thing then, then we go back to it. I know I'm like acting like, you know, old cadre all this is saying. But then I always go back to foremost dangerous words in investing are this time it's different. And I think the past five years are not a great time period to look to because it really has been an anomalously wonderful environment. So if you've been bullish for the past five years, great. Like everybody know.
Scott Wapner
But the point is that there have been numerous occasions when you've had every opportunity to get all beared up Whether it was back to Deep Seek or, or Liberation Day or whatever the event has been our point and the data would suggest that retail didn't get all beared up and they stuck with the story because they believed in the story and they turned out to be right with their actual.
Josh Brown
I'd love to address why it is different right now with the retail investor right now. In the last three years they've been the backbone. But why is it different right now? Two reasons. One, and I talk to retail investors all day long. Jenny, I know you do. Josh does. Joe, you do some. I know you do. More institutional retail investors are scared. There is legitimate worries out there with what's going on in the Middle East. Add to that that any adviser who is talking to their clients with definite certainty about how this turns out is throwing his or her credibility out of the wind. There is a degree of uncertainty and it has nothing to do with the Trump put. Trump can do whatever he wants to do, but the Iranians have a say in this and that's a degree of variable that nobody can guess. And that's why I think people are on their, on their hands.
Scott Wapner
It's not like all of a sudden, oh my God, you know, retail is the only cohort that's become skittish. Bank of America's equity client flow. We're talking about institutional investors. They bought tech, they sold almost everything else.
Josh Brown
And that's. And Joe, Joe was just saying, of course.
Scott Wapner
But also to your point, the war is different because it is people nervous in a different way because you can't predict an outcome, especially in this kind of conflict where the global oil supply is very, very much hanging in the.
Josh Brown
And you even see it today with what oil has done. It was down at $86 earlier this morning, now it's at 90. We've got ships on the move, we've got boots on the move, that we've got Iran saying all sorts of bellicose thing. We've got a 15 point plan. We've got questions. Are they actually talking? What's going on in Pakistan? The fog is thick right now.
Joe Terranova
The institutional community represents the tactical sentiment of, of the market right now. They are biased, neutral. The retail community represents the long term bias of the market for them on one day, one day Monday. To be sellers for the first time since 2023 is not confirmation to me that they're reversing that long term bias.
Scott Wapner
All right, let's talk about some individual things that need I think to be discussed a little bit more. And that is if you look at the mega caps, because it's a standout in my mind about one of the reasons why that group is uneven. Microsoft. Let's throw it up. It's been a battleground of the week. You've had a couple of conflicting calls. One price target goes down and then there's a defense of it. One analyst says somebody's got to say it, this company's off track. That's my paraphrasing of the words that they actually use. But the point was pretty clear. I thought. If you look at the cohort today, it was all green earlier. Well, what's the. One of the first ones to go negative? It's Microsoft.
Josh Brown
Jimmy, I think that this. There's a lot of forces at play here, but I think the private credit issue is one of the largest forces. Yesterday we saw more gates instituted in private credit. Apollo, Aries. There are certainly institutions out there that are looking at publicly traded software stocks as a way to be negative on private credit. The transmission mechanism being that AI eats into software revenues down the line. And I think that is what is at play here. I look at Microsoft, however, roughly 20 times forward earnings. I did buy it. More of it a few weeks ago. That was at 385. Now it's at 371. That doesn't look so good. I think this is overblown on both sides of that equation on software and on private credit. But the only thing that's going to heal this is time. Not me talking about.
Scott Wapner
How about Meta? On track for its third straight down quarter. Remember, the quarter is winding down. That's the longest streak since 2022. So they have to pay this fine. $375 million in New Mexico for violating that state's law in child exploitation. That's the case. The jury ruled that. So, Jenny, you own the name. This seems like the classic, you know, the ruling. Yes. Is it a stain? If you want to call it that, sure. The fine, it's a blip. This company make like $30 billion in revenue per quarter. So some like absurdly large number like
Jenny Harrington
billion revenues this year expected to grow by 25% over like year over year. The numbers are amazing. And this goes a little bit back to what I was saying before where, you know, in this case it's not the politics, but it's the, you know, the social impact, I guess it's, it's where you need to really strip it out and just look at the economics of the company. So here you've got a stock that trades at 20 times earnings has huge free cash flow generation earnings growth of like I said, 25%, 27% this year, 16% the year after, 16% the year after that. And it's, you know, It's a catch 22. The addictiveness of social media is what generates that 250 billion. I think that parents need to do a better job and step in and put up their own roadblocks and their own gates to keep their kids off of it in a dangerous way. But I also think that there's incredible benefits to society of being able to communicate so freely and openly. But it's a really, you know, It's a catch 22. It's a hard line. But the bottom line is the economics of Facebook remain of Metta remain incredibly compelling.
Scott Wapner
A couple of things we need to mention as well. Let's take a look at shares of Micron, one of the best stocks in the market. Right. Over Certainly the last six months straight up into the right there is one week down 17 and a half percent. You own the name?
Joe Terranova
I do.
Scott Wapner
There are some saying that the tip is turned now that this was at a tipping point for from memory that prices are going to come in. We'll see what demand does. What do you think here? I think it's an important stock in this market.
Joe Terranova
It is. Well, it's an important stock and again it's, it speaks to not being intoxicated by performance and therefore having significantly levered positions in one way. I have specifically communicated over the last several weeks as it relates to Micron, be careful here because to your point, historical cycles as it relates to memory pricing shows that three to six months before that pricing peaks, you will see that Micron will peak as well. So we're reaching a moment here as we move into 27 where you're not going to see memory prices go up by 150%. I think you get on Micron, it's the degree to which you have that positioning and I think if you are actually taking some of the positioning off in Micron, you want to look towards the semi equivalent equipment names. Yeah, they've been, they are benefiting most that your applied materials, Jimmy KLA Corp, your Lam research, they're benefiting from the CapEx that's coming from SK Hynix, from Science, from Samsung and from Micron. I think in the moment right now that's the sweet spot.
Scott Wapner
What they've been benefiting from too in a, in a strange way of sorts is the move down in oil, this oil down energy overall Down. Cost of running data center down. Those stocks have gotten caught up in that too. So don't discount that. Let's finish our A block with a look at gold. Okay. Five days down in a row. Nine of the past ten. Let's look at the chart, if we could. I know, we're working on that. We'll get that up in a second. Worst week since 2011. There it is. So gold is up today, 4,500. But you see, month to date, it's down more than 13%. We bring it up in part because you bought more of the gold.
Joe Terranova
I did. I bought it yesterday. I identified the opportunity. Jimmy, you're on with me Monday. In the commercial break, we were talking about potentially buying gold. I want to own gold relative to silver. I don't like the volatility that is exhibited in silver. Right now you have a point of reference and I said at the top of the show, you're looking for tactical opportunities in the market where you have a well defined point of reference, what your risk is. You can find that the GLD375. There's your 200 day moving average. I was a buyer down at 4, 404. I bought more this morning. Playing against that level. I think that's the right tactical setup.
Scott Wapner
All right, so does Bill Baruch, who joins us right now because he's been in this space, runs a commodities fund. A lot of material names in there. You bought more of the gold miners, right, as one of your moves?
Bill Baruch
Yeah, I think it's a great opportunity to step in. I agree with everything that Joe said. Now, if you look at the miners, obviously their input cost is energy. So that's been a big headwind to the liquidation in gold, the higher energy cost. I think this is a great opportunity to step in, buy GDX. And what we did is we took capital from DJP, which is. DJP is the commodity ETF. If you look at DJP, about 15% of it is agriculture. But you looked at over 30% of it, 35% of it is energy. So it's been very bifurcated over the last couple of weeks. And I think this is opportunity to say we want to lead into the metals, which cover, say almost 40% of that of that fund. Let's lean directly into the metals because I think that energy we're selling DJP with, with crude at near 100. We're selling that agriculture part of it with potentially some seasonal headwinds. Let's lean into the metals. So we bought GDX with that cash. And then we made some moves in our, in our mining portfolio as well.
Scott Wapner
Tell us those moves, would you?
Bill Baruch
Yeah, yeah. So we have about 14% cash and we're getting that to work. I mean, CD, we've been really, really high on the name Core. They've given some updated estimates. That's really triggered some upgrades on the street. Now they bought a company called New Gold. They've completed that acquisition and we believe those margins are going to continue to improve. You look at a NICO as well as kgc. Ken Ross, these are just three things here. Superior margins, low cost in low risk jurisdictions. And then hecla, it's a pure silver North American play. So we get some of that cash to work. About 5% of that cash to work at some big levels that we think are support here.
Scott Wapner
Appreciate you coming on telling us about that. I'm going to give you the last word of the block. Josh, you have thoughts on, on this space right now. This move in gold, which Jeffrey Gundlock told me the other day was a good buying opportunity given the pullback.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, look, I think a lot of people watched the rally in gold over the last, let's call it the last nine months pretty much straight up. There was one really big drop in late January, but never even touched the 50 day moving average, let alone the 200. The trend had been pristine. Now it's a little bit messier. I like what Joe's doing. I do think tactically if you want to play GLD, specifically if you want to play GLD up against that rising 200 day which by the way has not been violated in over a year. Also RSI got washed out. It was at 30 yesterday. We haven't seen gold at a 30 RSI also in a year. It's been a minute. So when you get that sort of momentum washout and you have that confidence that the long term trend is still intact, I do like it as a, as a tactical play for a bounce. And it's already working today. It doesn't need my endorsement.
Scott Wapner
All right, we're going to take a break. We'll come back, we'll tell you about a new buy that Jenny has. It is this month's worst sector. She says the stock's attractive there. She'll tell you what it is. Next.
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Scott Wapner
All right, consumer staples worst sector in the S and P this month, down 9%. Which brings me to Jenny's new buy, which is, from that space, a stock that is having its worst month since December of 2000. That long.
Jenny Harrington
You know what the crazy thing is? It's Clorox and Clorox 2% on the year, which means it's 12% ahead of the Mag 7 year to date.
Scott Wapner
Worst month since December, I'm going to
Jenny Harrington
say 12% ahead of the Mag 7 year to date. Glass half full, right? So here's what we've got on three months.
Scott Wapner
Makes you happy. Go for it.
Jenny Harrington
All right, here's what we've got on Clorox. All jokes aside. You've got a stock that's trading at 16 times earnings. Historically, it's traded at 18 to 20 times. Historically, it's frequently traded at a premium to the overall market. It's got a 4.9% dividend yield. It's paid that dividend for over 50 years and it's increased it for 24 years. It was one of the stocks that was really rocked and rolled by the pandemic. And I know we're like six years past the pandemic, but earnings, I think are just now starting to get on A more normal, consistent trajectory. So with that trajectory, I expect that earnings growth should be 6 to 8%. They should grow the dividend 2 to 3% ahead going forward. One of the surprises in the research process was actually what they own, which I think I'll surprise even some of you at that. So we all know Clorox, but they also own Glad Trash bags, Press' n Seal, Britta water filters, Kingsford Charcoal, Burt's Bees. Now, the reason it's down, Scott, the reason you start off picking on me is because.
Scott Wapner
Well, I wasn't picking on you. I was just saying.
Jenny Harrington
Okay, the reason you started on a negative note, even though I have a great buy,
Scott Wapner
isn't that the reason why you probably bought the stock now? Because it has sucked for so long?
Jenny Harrington
Ah, but it hasn't. And this is what happened. It was. It was about $99 a share at the beginning of the year. It immediately jacked up 26%. So on February 9, that stock was up 26%. In the last month, particularly as the Iran war started up, the shares came down. Why? Because a huge percent of their input costs and their distribution costs are based on petrochemicals. But at down 20 plus percent from that high, which was still a discount
Scott Wapner
count to its historical multiples, it's down 32% from 52.
Jenny Harrington
Down 32% from the exact 52 week high. Thank you. Thank you for the clarification. Okay, I just like here.
Scott Wapner
Just the facts, ma'. Am. Just the facts.
Jenny Harrington
You are like so negative.
Josh Brown
This is a couple questions.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, yeah, the facts don't work with your story. What do you want me to do?
Jenny Harrington
Over 20%.
Josh Brown
No, I mean Jenny and I think a lot.
Scott Wapner
32%. That's a little more than over 20.
Jenny Harrington
It's down 32% from its high. I might remind you, it's still up 12% more than the Mag 7 year to date. Yeah.
Josh Brown
All right. Jenny knows how I roll. 4.8% dividend yield 15 times forward earnings. You've got my attention. Do I need to go out and get this now? Is there a catalyst and sorry, one more question, one more question. How safe is the dividend? Because 4.8% actually gives me a little worry.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, no dividend. Super, super safe. Every single thing. When we. Actually, one of the cool things we did was we took all the transcripts from the past six years and loaded them into I can't remember which chat, GPT or Claude and said, go through and tell us how the dividend language has changed over the years. And all you see from that is unbelievable consistency between the board and management saying like this is a major component of total shareholder return. And by the way the dividend is extremely well covered. Their thing is to always grow it 2 to 3%. They love that dividend growth and they know that in a mature cash flow oriented company like this that's what the can promise their shareholders. So two things. One, the catalyst for buying it now goes back to our conversation on where you think oil really will will settle down. Okay so when you saw oil spike up to over 100.
Joe Terranova
Yes.
Jenny Harrington
You saw Clorox shares down 6% each time you see oil prices come down you see the stock go up. So if you think that there's a reasonably high possibility of resolution to the to the crisis in the Middle east and the oil prices ultimately for the year settle out between 60 and call it 90 the share prices overly discounted that. So I think that's the thing. If you think there's reasonably near term resolution. One other point that I want to make please. This thing is as a proof I think almost as it gets. There is no way that no I
Jim Leventhal
believe you could say it.
Jenny Harrington
No I love no I Burt's bees. No AI trash bags. The way I would having a negative impact on it is if I eats up all the jobs and we go into a huge recession and people don't have enough money to clean their house.
Scott Wapner
Amazing company.
Jenny Harrington
Thank you.
Scott Wapner
Amazing.
Jenny Harrington
So glad that you appreciate that.
Scott Wapner
Amazing bleach.
Jenny Harrington
I must be the best ever to brought you to this.
Scott Wapner
Amazing. Thank you truly.
Jenny Harrington
Did you just put a trade in for your PI? Did I see that? No, I'm kidding. I'm kidding now.
Scott Wapner
And if I did it wouldn't be.
Jenny Harrington
I'm kidding.
Scott Wapner
Christina Parts and Evolves has our news update. Hi there.
Jessica Leoncini
That was an amazing segment. But let's talk about President Trump now. And he said he may call on the National Guard to actually help at airports. As the DHS shutdown reached its 40th day, a senior TSA official told Congress the shutdown has led to the highest airport wait times in the agency's history. The House is set to vote tomorrow on a deal to end the shutdown. As negotiators try to come to a deal, the Justice Department has reportedly stepped up its progress into former CIA Director John Brennan. Last night, the House Intelligence Committee approved a request from the Justice Department for classified transcripts related to Brennan. According to NBC News, he has been a longtime target of President Trump following his involvement in a counterintelligence investigation into President Trump during his time leading the agency. And North Carolina's men's basketball coach Hubert Davis was fired by the school following a surprise loss in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Davis led the Tar Heels to a final Four in a three straight tournament appearances, but actually failed to live up to expectations for the six time national championship winning program.
Jenny Harrington
Scott, can you tell me why?
Scott Wapner
I don't know. They lost their best player. They had a lot of great wins. I don't know. I don't make those decisions. Up next, our calls of the day. This AI power play surging to fresh records when one big firm now going to a new street high on the name. We do have ownership which means we tell you what it is next. As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC
Joe Terranova
spotlights the companies that rose with the
Josh Brown
nation and continue to shape its future.
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Scott Wapner
I want to show you shares of JetBlue which are moving higher. There's the move. 14% semaphore is reporting that the airline is exploring potential. Potential merger partners. Interesting story. Will follow. Jenny used to own the name, doesn't anymore. We saw you on that.
Jenny Harrington
Now I'll say something.
Scott Wapner
Risk of being, you know, too negative.
Jenny Harrington
You know what, I'll take it back to positive. Guess where we sold it earlier this year. We sold it 10 cents off of the year high. We sold it at 640 and we sold it because it had popped up. It was up 38% on the year and we just followed the process. We're like, this is overdone. We do still expect them to get back to a dollar of earnings, but that's not coming soon enough for us. And with respect to this 14% move, we've seen JetBlue go through merger talks before and it hasn't really worked out for them. So I personally wouldn't be buying it on this. I'd be sitting here with like very, very cautious apprehension.
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's do some calls of the day if we may. Cheniere target goes to 335 from 271 overweight. At Wells Fargo, you obviously know what's been happening within liquid natural gas. There's a thought, as we said, that some have suggested that given the disruptions that have taken place, that this company, which is a pioneer in the exporting of lng, is going to get and I think the words were every contract for the foreseeable future or something to that degree.
Josh Brown
Yeah. And just one detail, not to be sarcastic, but exporting from the United.
Scott Wapner
From the United States, that's Right.
Josh Brown
No, no. Yeah. But it's important because the world now realizes that even if hostilities stop, you cannot rely on natural gas production from Qatar. It has nothing to do with the Qatari's fault. It's not theirs. It's that there's too much hostility there. So there is going to be a globalization that goes on and people are going to look at getting their natural gas from the United States. Cheniere is the transmission core point for all of this.
Scott Wapner
Chart doesn't even do. Can we look at them?
Josh Brown
Yeah, look at a five year chart.
Scott Wapner
Let's look at a month to date because.
Josh Brown
A month.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, right on the news when the war. There, there it is. Okay, thank you.
Josh Brown
But also put up the five year because, I mean. Yes, that's quite a, quite a rise.
Scott Wapner
Well, that shows the, since the war began, the move based on the idea that these guys are going to clean up.
Josh Brown
Yeah. And let me not bury the punchline. I'm not trimming it here. I'm not trimming, trimming Cheniere here. Even after the five year or one month gains that we've had in this stock. Because Qatar is just not going to pick up to where it was before. And Cheniere is adding all sorts of capacity increases over the next five years. And yes, they're going to get every contract that's available.
Scott Wapner
Okay, Robinhood. What about this buyback, Joe? Billion and a half share buyback.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
I mean, why are you skeptical?
Joe Terranova
I'm skeptical because it's not really that significant. And it's. Over the next three years. The stock unfortunately is still being held hostage to the performance of what crypto ultimately is going to do. You have to pull the lens back, which we do when we look at momentum over a 12 month time period. And then you'll see significant appreciation. If we could pull that chart back as I'm speaking, you'll see that they have diversified the business for sure. They've brought in really strong intellectual capital into their management workforce. So I think they'll be able to ride out some of the volatility in crypto and get to the other side and then you'll see a more diversified company.
Scott Wapner
Okay, we will take a quick break. We come back. Netflix is in the on deck circle quite literally because they are broadcasting Major League Baseball season opener. Will it be a home run move as this company has obviously made a bigger move into sports. Now what about this? We'll debate it next. All right, welcome back. We're talking Netflix because they are streaming the opening night game tonight between Joe's New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants. It's the first ever live MLB broadcast on Netflix, which by the way was named the best idea at Baird 120 the price target. Josh Brown, I send it to you.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I think under 100 bucks. This is free money. I added to it recently. I probably should buy more. I don't really own a lot, but basically this is, I think one of only two entertainment companies that matter. It's. It's Netflix versus YouTube in the battle for control of the living room. And yes, there are some sports rights owned elsewhere by Amazon, etc. But like this is really the main event. And I think you've got a stock right now that yes, it's down 3% on the year, but it's up 17% over the last month since the Warner Brothers deal fell apart. Now we could focus on the fundamentals of the business. This is a company that should be a 10% plus grower, a compounder should earn somewhere in the vicinity of $5 a share two years from now and I think a 20 to 25 multiple and that is justified. And the stock should trade somewhere between 100 and 120.
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
Joe Terranova
I think Josh is right. Look, we were sellers of it at the rebalance at the end of January I sold out of it as well. But that was before the announcements surrounding Warner Brothers and the significant double digit move higher. So that was the right thing to do with the time. I'll get back into it. Fundamentally, I've always believed in the company and what they're doing here with live sports to really gather more viewership to their platform is, is really efficient and remarkable. The World Baseball Classic over the last two weeks, if you wanted to watch it in Japan, it was streamed exclusively by Netflix. It did over 31 million viewers. Tonight's game will be broadcast in five different languages, watched around the world.
Scott Wapner
Again, where is it? Stadium or on the West Coast?
Joe Terranova
This game is being played out in San Francisco, the home of the Giants.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Joe Terranova
You'll be watching of course.
Scott Wapner
Okay, sure. Mike Santoli is next. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Michael Santoli joins us now post 9. I'm told that our conversation on the retail investor piqued your interest.
Mike Santoli
It did. I mean, I like in general this debate about whether, you know, we can still think of the small active investors, traders in particular as contrary indicators, as smart money or not. I've been a little uncomfortable with the lionization of retail traders as a group as being like perfectly prescient with massive Fortitude. When I saw that story that they sold into the pullback, down 7%, I said, that's bullish for the market. You want people to give up in the short term, at least tactically. I don't think those rules have changed. I will grant that there is a different type of investing and trading culture that's more risk tolerant. It's adjacent to gambling. So therefore losses. Losses, you know, you shrug them off maybe more easily, but I don't know. We were saying this in 2021, and they got destroyed. ARK was their favorite, and it went down 80% in a year. And so I don't know that as a group, you want to say they somehow got it figured out. I'd rather view them as part of this whole matrix. You know that that is just part of the puzzle.
Scott Wapner
I'll let Jenny engage on that.
Jenny Harrington
What was that? Sorry. Did you guys say sorry? Jenny, Mike's right.
Scott Wapner
No, no, no, no, no. Because you guys aren't.
Mike Santoli
I'm not keeping score.
Scott Wapner
You're not making the same.
Jenny Harrington
No, no, I know.
Mike Santoli
Yeah.
Jenny Harrington
No, I'm teasing. I meant them. Josh and Scott. No, but I think. I think that's probably. Mike, the better way to look at it, which is that it is part of the puzzle. And one of the things that I. That I wonder and worry about is like, when their dollars are flowing into the market, what are they flowing into? And your point was excellent. And last year, what I saw and what I was focused on was how much money was flowing into things like microstrategy and the crypto trade. So even though that counts as investor money flowing in, I don't think it works in the right way. So I am skeptical of that as a leading indicator.
Josh Brown
And I would.
Mike Santoli
I would distinguish it from aggregate ETF flows, which have been massively strong since late last year and early this year, which is a different kind of money. Right. I think that couldn't be interpreted as a little bit longer term money. But those who I trust and follow, who want to see sentiment really readjust so that it improves the risk reward, you'd like to see those flows drop up a little bit, maybe even reverse. By the way, Robinhood, helpfully, in its earnings presentation, tells you what their customers do in terms of market gains and losses. They were down 9% in the fourth quarter. S& P was flat. They own too much crypto. And that's kind of what the story is. It dictates whether they have the money to invest in other things.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. All right, Good stuff. Thank you for that. Insight too. I'll see you at 3 on closing bell. Finals are next. I want to hit some calls of the day. Vertiv initiated a buy street high target as well,325 at HSBC. With the pace of Capex we think Vertiv's organic growth could surprise to the upside in 2026.
Joe Terranova
What do you the average analyst price target here over a 12 month period is to 81. The stock is 278. That's not reflecting what the growth ultimately is going to be. It's at an all time high. It's a classic example of buy high, sell higher.
Scott Wapner
Okay, thank you. On holding they have named co founders as the new CO CEOs effective May the first. We haven't talked about this name of yours in a while.
Josh Brown
I know but how about wow, this price movement today down more than 10%. I don't think this is a rational response by the markets unless there's something more than a management change. But there's no indication that this is anything other than co founders coming back in. This is a stock that's going to grow earnings 25% over each of the next two years trading at 22 times forward earnings. If this is just management change then this is a buying opportunity right here.
Scott Wapner
It is an interesting move, right? Not only from the corporate perspective but the stock reaction.
Josh Brown
So and just to be clear, I'm not doing anything right now because it feels like the market's saying there's something else afoot here. I don't know what that is but let's just wait and see. We may be coming back to this later this week.
Scott Wapner
Let's hit Kinetic Holdings. This fabulous company with undoubtedly an amazing looking chart actually owns the name. It's a pipeline transportation company of natural gas.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah. So it's one of the midstream companies but it's not the long haul pipelines. They're more like compression, storage, gathering, transportation. The reason I like owning this is because I get that 7% dividend yield.
Scott Wapner
Look at that.
Jenny Harrington
They're really focused on growing it.
Scott Wapner
Look at.
Jenny Harrington
What's that chart?
Joe Terranova
Beautiful.
Jenny Harrington
Look at the hours old. That's meaningless.
Scott Wapner
Look at it.
Jenny Harrington
Okay, spectacular. You're being silly now. What's important here is a masterpiece. Silly, nice word to use. What's important here is that you can be in the midstream space but you actually do have exposure to petro, to oil and gas prices. So if they do sustain in the plus $60 a barrel range, you benefit from that.
Scott Wapner
What's your final trade?
Jenny Harrington
My final trade is rdot a Mbp aluminum cans. So this is another one that fell off when petrochemical prices went up because they have reliance on that nine and a half percent dividend yield. If prices come down, shares should do well.
Scott Wapner
Okay, good stuff, Josh. Finally, trade.
Jim Leventhal
Reiterate. Netflix. I like it here.
Scott Wapner
All right, Farmer Jim.
Josh Brown
Citigroup doing a lot better than the financial sector and frankly, the market overall year to date now.
Scott Wapner
Well, the financials need to get their footing in and of itself, right?
Josh Brown
Amen to that. But it's only down 1.8% year to date.
Joe Terranova
Okay, Joey, Jenny told me my final trade wasn't creative, but it's not.
Scott Wapner
I said, he's never like that.
Jenny Harrington
I said it was solid because it
Joe Terranova
goes on the belt.
Scott Wapner
I'll see you on the belt. Take it away, Kelly. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
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All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer Let me ask you something. Is your money doing everything it can for you?
Jim Leventhal
I don't know.
Scott Wapner
How would I know?
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Is it automatically saving for special events and keeping you posted on its progress, like at Huntington Bank?
Scott Wapner
Oh, no.
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Is it tracking your spending so you can make the best choices at the mall?
Joe Terranova
Nope.
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Or setting limits on your teenager's debit card?
Scott Wapner
Definitely not.
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Then it could certainly be doing more.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, sure sounds like it.
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Episode Title: Stocks Rise and Oil Falls on Hopes for Iran Talks
Date: March 25, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown
This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report centers on the interplay between falling oil prices, rising stock markets, and the underlying hopes for de-escalation in Middle East tensions via Iran talks. The conversation explores how recent market behavior is a result of both geopolitical uncertainty and economic fundamentals, highlighting the so-called “Trump put,” asset class rotations, retail investor behavior, and tactical plays in sectors like gold, technology, and consumer staples.
“Oil down, stocks up. Pretty simple.” — Scott Wapner (01:20)
The episode retains the fast-paced, informed, and sometimes combative panel dynamic that defines “Halftime Report.” Insights are candid, often opinionated, but grounded in current data and historical context. The conversational style balances nuanced debate with market pragmatism.
(End of Summary)