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Halftime Report
Stocks Surge on Ceasefire: Your Next Move 4/8/26
00:44:12
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to position your portfolio as stocks surge following the announced ceasefire in Iran. Plus, the desk making some major portfolio moves, they share all the details. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
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- [01:01]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour. You know the story today, surging stocks on the cease fire news. Oil's plunging, bond yields are down. We discuss what to do now with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, but Shannon Sokotia, Jason Snipe and Steven Weiss. Let's check the markets because we've moved back higher now. We're about 1200 or so up on the Dow. We're better than 2 1/2% on the NASDAQ. The Dow, the S and P is just about there. But there's the move in crude below 95 bucks. Ed Yardeni reiterating his 7700 target. Now he says apocalypse now, not fund strats. Mark Newton, he's the technician there, says I expect the S and P to push back to new all time highs in the months to come. Could rally to 73, 300 into August. Joe, you get the first crack at this today.
- [02:05]
Joe Terranova
Yeah. You probably will see those price levels in the interim. I think you're going to have continued elevated volatility for sure. If you look at the various exchanges today, which had been trading higher leading into yesterday, they're a little bit lower. I'll take the other side of that and suggest to all of you, you allocate in that direction. But I think what's important about today is today is a growth story. It is a momentum story. It is not a value story. It is not a broadening out story. It's not the S and p weight versus S&P market cap. S&P =8 is actually underperforming. Significant outperformance in growth today. 125 basis points technology. But it's semiconductors. That's where the momentum has been. Momentum has not been in software. You're not seeing a dramatic revival in performance from software itself. So I think you want to focus on that element of the story. The fact that it is a return to momentum, the fact that it is a return to growth. And then the mag 7 I mentioned yesterday, Alphabet made it my final trade. We finally have a Mag 7 name that is higher for 2026. It is Alphabet.
- [03:13]
Scott Wapner
Don't you. I mean, it's. Look, almost everything is up, right?
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Joe Terranova
To certain degrees, for sure.
- [03:20]
Scott Wapner
Are the, Are the banks in your value box or no? So they're up a lot. The banks are industrials in your value box because they're up. They're up a lot.
- [03:30]
Joe Terranova
So industrials are in the momentum box. Everything starts with momentum today. Throw up momentum. Look, I don't talk a lot about performance of Jyoti on the show. You could see where Jyoti is relative to everything else today. Why its momentum and its growth. Look at the momentum etf, that's higher. So to your question in financials. Yes, financials were the momentum sector coming into 2026. All the momentum funds were allocated in that direction. So seeing the significant recovery rally that we're seeing in a lot of the banks, as you mentioned, that benefits momentum. Industrials. That's where momentum resided. Momentum was not in software into the month of March. So today it's benefiting from not having that allocation. Software is underperforming.
- [04:17]
Scott Wapner
All right, Shan 7700 now from yard, Denny, reiterating that, are we. I don't want to say like, all clear, because there are obvious risks that still exist. No one's suggesting, hey, everything's back to complete normal, but maybe we're trending towards getting to the other side. So what do I do in that scenario?
- [04:42]
Shannon Sokotia
Well, I think that our view is that looking beyond this conflict, and though it sounds naive on any given day, given the uncertainty around policy announcements and the likelihood of continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East, I mean, I think when we talk about beyond the conflict, one thing I do want to acknowledge is that there was a, you know, essentially a premium in oil prices coming into this conflict. And we believe that some of that premium will remain. And so there are going to continue to be dialogue, narrative around Oil prices. But in terms of looking at coming into the year and going back to the fundamental opportunities that we saw, those areas that you just talked about and that Joe mentioned from momentum perspective, you know, areas like technology and financials and parts of the industrial sector, those are areas where we felt those valuations were vulnerable in June, July, August of last year. Those have become more attractive, consistent and coincident with continued economic momentum, the economy in the US continues to grow And Scott, strong earnings expectations for this year. So this, this opportunity that's being presented is to kind of come back into potentially US large caps, find some of those opportunities and invest and perhaps take some of that capital that you may have had diversified away from technology and financials. That's an opportunity to potentially move back into some of those names. As we start to see the relative attractiveness of US large caps. Come back to the four.
- [06:08]
Scott Wapner
We'll get to specific positioning in a moment. Jason. 6767 was the 50 day moving average for the S&P 500. So we're, we're back above that now. We, we did get above it off the open, we dropped down below it because we've had a little volatility on some headlines about this, the straight up or moves. But now we are back above that level again. What are you watching most of all? All today.
- [06:34]
Jason Snipe
So for me it's definitely growth, it's definitely tech. It's a lot of what Joe already said in terms of momentum and turning the page to the earnings story.
- [06:42]
Steven Weiss
Right.
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Jason Snipe
So in earnest, we know that 12% earnings growth expected for Q1, Q2, 17% earnings growth, Q3, 19%, Q4, 18%. So we know the earnings story is relatively strong going forward. I think for me, and this is something that you have talked about a lot over the last couple of weeks, is this post war playbook that I think is very important from a tactical perspective. So if I Look at the Mag 7 multiple, the compression that we've seen over the last several weeks, I mean the multiple is now below what staples are trading for. We know relatively from a relative perspective, Staples are always expensive, but this is an opportunity in that space and I think that's where my eyeballs will be.
- [07:22]
Scott Wapner
Nasdaq's ripping. Obviously we're about a 3% gain. Just shy weiss of that. So put everything into context in your own mind. You know, many of the calls out today assume now the worst is past. Risks are obviously still there. No one's naive suggesting otherwise. But the fact that if the worst is in fact in the rear view, how does that shape your investing mindset?
- [07:47]
Steven Weiss
Very positively, and I believe it is. And yes, there will be fits and starts with. But Trump was clearly looking for an off ramp. You know, for the last couple of weeks, he got the off ramp. I don't believe while there may be some bluster, I just don't believe we go back to the depths of worries that we had. So that's really an all clear. So now what we're facing is a robust earnings season up close to 15%. Guidance that should be, at the very least relief and not focus on oil, Focus on oil coming down. So I think it sets up very positively for the market to move higher. The question is, and Joe partially addressed this and you know, while momentum strategy is clearly strategy and obviously a firm believer in invest in Jyoti, that's not how I look at it. I'm not trying to discern, is it going to be more, is it going to be growth? I'm strictly bottoms up fundamental. And what I still see, the laggards I see today, I still see Microsoft up, you know, half of what the indices are. Puzzlingly puzzling.
- [08:50]
Scott Wapner
Palantir's red. It's not like every single stock.
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Joe Terranova
Salesforce.
- [08:54]
Steven Weiss
Exactly. You know, UnitedHealth is down a little bit. It was up 15% or so yesterday. So I get that Netflix has a move. So I still think when all this goes away, whether we're up two and a half percent or three and a half percent or on some stocks a lot more, it's eventually going to go back to that trite saying stock pickers market, and that's where we'll wind up.
- [09:16]
Scott Wapner
Okay, so, so let's, let's go specific positioning here. At the very least, is it time to bounce the things that ran up the most during the war like you did today with CF yesterday, whatever, yesterday,
- [09:34]
Joe Terranova
that's a big no.
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Scott Wapner
I understand. I understand there's a huge difference in price. But the chart is making the case of where I'm, why I'm even asking the question.
- [09:43]
Joe Terranova
So the answer to your question is, and I said this yesterday, if you had hedges on against the conflict, yesterday was the time to take off the hedges or at least reduce that positioning. And I feel even stronger about that today. What were the hedges? The hedges were areas of the energy market where you could see alternate production, whether it was Suncor or Petrobras. In fertilizer, it was CF Industries, which yesterday I sold half in the morning. I sold half. When the announcement came out later in the Day the hedges are what you wanted to identify and you wanted to reduce those yesterday and after last evening, I think you want to take those off.
- [10:24]
Scott Wapner
Everybody agree with that, Shan? I mean do you, do you. All the big energy names, let's cycle through some of them. Exxon, Chevron, you know, the biggest names, they're the biggest losers on, on a day like today, guys, show those if you can please. So there's some of the names which show you exactly what I'm talking about. Go. Yeah, whatever you can do that or show a board of it makes the same.
- [10:45]
Steven Weiss
A longer term chart would be helpful also on these.
- [10:48]
Scott Wapner
Well, sure, but this is, this is why we're asking the question if you, like you said, if Steve's. And this is kind of an all clear what she said. Do you sell these names?
- [10:59]
Shannon Sokotia
I mean number one, I think there's a lot of people that have very little exposure to these names as it is. I mean energy is a very small part of the index and so many people may have bought in more recently. I think Scott, there's also, as I mentioned, there's, you know, we're not going back to October energy prices either though. So it just depends on your positioning and how much you bought into this. So could there still be opportunities in areas like refiners perhaps? Is there going to be near term pressure on integrateds where. Which generally don't capture the up move and really, you know, generally don't tend to capture as much of the down move, but still move in sentiment? I think the challenge is here, Scott, is that there is likely to continue to be volatility and so you could be a bit more tactical in playing some of these names over the next six to eight weeks. The bottom line is that there has been some supply destruction and so if you're looking at that break even price for oil, where you feel comfortable owning an energy company that is, you know, you're so you're at a point where that's probably not going to go below that in the near term. Longer term, however, there are probably better opportunities to be adding to some of these more cyclical areas. As I discussed earlier, with the acceleration of the US economy, you have exposure
- [12:06]
Scott Wapner
here and you no longer do.
- [12:08]
Jason Snipe
I no longer do. And I think, you know, Exxon. What was that? No, it was actually Chevron, Chevron and xle. And I think to Shannon's point, I mean oil, particularly for the fully integrated, I don't know if it's a competition. Complete sell out, sell it out completely. I think it's definitely offloading a significant piece of your position, particularly if you came in overweight. But to Shannon's point, I mean it's a very small piece of the industry. But as, as crude come down, which is down 16%, that's a, that's obviously a proxy for the fully integrated names. For me I would, I would be less than market weight, which again is a small position within energy.
- [12:45]
Joe Terranova
I think you want to keep your positioning with the refiners. They run up significantly. They were already outperforming the rest of the energy sector over the last six months. You're still going to have challenges as it relates to diesel. You still have domestic challenges on refiners. Keep that there. If you're looking at Exxon, you're looking at Chevron. You want to moderate the positioning. Where do you go? You go to the oil field services name. Stephanie and I talked about this yesterday. She maintained some of her positioning. I believe in sports Schlumberger, very smart move. We hold in the etf Schlumberger and Baker Hughes. We're being rewarded for that today. The flow of oil through the strait is good for the oil field services name. If you want comprehensive exposure, you own the oih.
- [13:26]
Steven Weiss
Yeah, I think that's right. But I also think you can go to a honeywell where there's exposure.
- [13:30]
Joe Terranova
Yes.
- [13:31]
Steven Weiss
In oil field equipment. Closer look, who knows. I think it's doubtful that we all of a sudden partnership partner with Iran and, and you know, remove all sanctions. But oil, aside from the temporary disruptions, they'll be cured and I think oil takes another leg down. But for the oil service stocks, for the oil equipment providers, I think that's particularly very fertile ground.
- [13:55]
Scott Wapner
If, if some of these names like the oil ones, if they become a source of funds in like they're obviously today in some respects, where's that money going to flow to? Right to growth.
- [14:06]
Joe Terranova
I see, I see it going to growth. Yes. I see it growing the growth. I see it going to semiconductors. I see it going back into the infrastructure story because that's where, you know, you get the reliable growth. Like you know, the earnings season's coming up and where am I going to find and where have I been rewarded for investing into the growth? And it's the AI infrastructure. So that's where the industrials and it's a lot of stuff.
- [14:30]
Scott Wapner
Shannon doesn't agree with you. I know it. I can tell by, I can tell by the way she was listening and not exactly a full blown facial expression. However, there was enough vibe being given off that I. Because I think you still believe in the big broadening trade that we had that worked real well off the beginning of the year.
- [14:50]
Shannon Sokotia
I believe there's still more room to run there. Where I would agree with Joe though,
- [14:55]
Scott Wapner
go the disagree first. Okay. Where I would disagree go Red Sox gun. I set you up. Don't give me the agree, I want the disagree.
- [15:01]
Shannon Sokotia
I think that there are still a lot of places that are very reasonably valued and, and cyclicality. You look at manufacturing numbers, you look at the continued resilience of the consumer, there is still a lot of opportunity in this broadening out trade that hasn't been fully captured in the last three years of trailing returns. And yes, could we see a bounce. But there's also, if you think about technology in terms of the mag 7 or the mega 8 or whatever you want to call it, there's still a lot of dispersion there. And so I feel like you have to be selective and prescriptive within that universe. And so for me it's not a kind of a full blown momentum move back into all of technology. And again, not semis versus software, but even within those large cap tech tech companies, I think that there still is dispersion ahead.
- [15:45]
Scott Wapner
Let's talk about one of those large cap tech companies right now. Guys throw up. Metta Intraday stocks ripping. It's up right now, 6%. I think I see it. They, they debut the story just, just move. And Bloomberg's got a story that Met A debuts its first AI model from its prize superintelligence group. That that story just hit a few minutes ago. Say it again. Oh, good. Okay. Julia Borson has this news actually for us.
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Joe Terranova
Julia, what do we know here?
- [16:17]
Scott Wapner
Because it's obviously moving the stock.
- [16:19]
Julia Borson
Yes, we have the news, Scott. Metta launching its long awaited new AI model called Museum Spark. This was originally codenamed Avocado. It's launching on the Meta app and website today, rolling out to its other apps and glasses in coming weeks. Now Meta says Muse Spark is its most powerful model yet. But instead of launching with a massive sophisticated model to compete with the likes of ChatGPT or Gemini, which many expected given Met as spending, this is a more limited release as Met as superintelligence. Labor Labs chief Alex Wang slowly rolls out his work. Now, MU Spark seems initially focused on custom uses for Meta's apps, with a special mode for shopping surfacing, ideas from creators that users already follow, and visual coding tools to create websites or mini games to play with friends. Now Muse Spark is the product of Wang's nine months of building Meta's superintelligence labs along with hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in AI infrastructure. Following the disappointment of Met as prior AI models now Better seems to be trying to lower expectations and address potential criticism given Met as AI spending saying that this is only the start. And we have larger models in development including a more sophisticated contemplating mode which Meta says is competitive with frontier models such as Gemini, deep think and GPT3 Pro. That model they say will roll out later. Notably, Meta is also opening the door to a new revenue stream saying it plans to eventually offer paid access to this models API like Anthropic Quad and Google's Gemini do. Medicare is now up about six and a half percent.
- [18:01]
Scott Wapner
Scott, they are ripping on this news. Julia, thank you so much for that. It's Julia Borsten. Steve Wise, you own the name.
- [18:08]
Steven Weiss
Yeah and in now it's back to my largest position given the performance today. Look, you're going to see more of this not just from Meta but to see from others as they now get a return the investment the major investment they made in AI and what this does is it creates or strengthens the mode around them and then gives them more products for advertising, for subscription fees. So you're seeing the transformation real time today and I believe it's going to continue. I do not believe that matter given their market leading position in their area is inexpensive here and if I didn't have such a full position I don't know that by today but I would definitely add to it.
- [18:48]
Scott Wapner
I mean Amazon and Alphabet are also up. Are also up better than 3 1/2 percent. Amazon's target to 260@canner. Alphabet top pick also at Canner. Jason stocks just I mean I understand everything's up but you get a sense yeah that investors are dying to ride these things again. 100% and maybe it's they want to do it before earnings season really gets hot heavy for these names, right?
- [19:16]
Jason Snipe
100% and I mean you know we were talking about earnings earlier. I mean 45% year over year growth for tech. Right. These are significant numbers and as it relates to Amazon in my opinion, I mean this is a name again. Retail has held in. There's been resiliency in the, in the consumer. AWS has re accelerated 20 plus percent north growth rate operation margins are coming back online in very meaningful ways. So I like that name and especially with the multiple coming in with all of them but Amazon in particular, I like that one.
- [19:51]
Scott Wapner
Speaking of multiples coming in they had come in to a reasonable degree in Cyber. Some of those names certainly year to date if you want to cycle through some of the charts. So you've got the big anthropic news today. Project Glasswing with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto as key partners, the narrative around Cyber hasn't been great and that AI is going to displace a lot of this and make it easier for, you know, smaller companies to develop sort of their own systems using artificial intelligence. So this is a big deal that's been moving some of these names. Can we show guys some of the names today off of that and show that Jason, you bought more Palo Alto?
- [20:32]
Jason Snipe
I did.
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Scott Wapner
Palo Alto, please.
- [20:34]
Jason Snipe
I did. Thank you. And guess what? Obviously this Project glasswing story is a huge catalyst for the entire group, but a lot of the names obviously been falling in this kind of software slide. But for me, aside from the Project Glass Swing news, which I think is a major catalyst and very important to mention, you know, they've been in acquisition mode for several quarters right away, Chronosphere, Cyber Arc, they spent almost $30 billion. And then you heard from Aurora just a couple of weeks ago in terms of him making a capital investment of $10 million and buying some of the shares. So he's clearly showing his interest and obviously his confidence in the position going forward. But I the other point I want to make is this kind of harmonious story that I think is possible with software and AI and that's what we're seeing with this Project Glassware story.
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Scott Wapner
Okay. The other group that's up a lot, Joe was talking about the chips. The chip equipment names are up a bunch. Lam Applied, Marvell, kla, Take your pick. They're all running. You own most, if not all of these. This is on some war relief specifically too?
- [21:39]
Joe Terranova
Absolutely, yes. And it's also some of the optical names like glw, it's the memory names as well. But remember again, that's where the momentum resided. Jay, Respectfully, Palo Alto CrowdStrike, I'd love to get back into these names. I look at these names today. Palo Alto, I'm somewhat disappointed. It's only up 1.3%. Trading at the bottom of the range. So what Scott's identifying with those industries, that's where the momentum was embedded. And when that momentum kind of maintains itself like it has, you see, investors quickly make a dash in return to memory to optical and to the semi equipment names.
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Scott Wapner
Guys, let's say something.
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Jason Snipe
No, I was just going to say it's going to get there. I hear exactly what you're saying. But again, when I, when I hear about this tool that that anthropic has obviously developed and I just see that story, there's more fire to that story and I think that continue.
- [22:32]
Scott Wapner
All right, let's do this. Let's, let's just take a break. Let's do that. We got the markets ripped. We'll come back. We got more committee moves ahead to tell you about. Jason and Steve are selling out of a couple of trades that they had and we have our calls for the day ahead as well.
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- [23:12]
Scott Wapner
Hey, how's it going?
- [23:14]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, good, thanks.
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- [24:36]
Steven Weiss
Said.
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Scott Wapner
Another committee move we have for you today. Weiss, you sold ftai. You're out of that completely now.
- [24:42]
Steven Weiss
I'm out of it completely. And I didn't sell today. I sold it yesterday. And the reason why I did is I have so much bait in my portfolio with the other names. The stock has not been acting well, not recovering well obviously today aside. So it was relatively small position and it was, I didn't want to hedge and go short the Market because I thought this would sort of happen. Didn't have enough conviction obviously to have a lot of exposure would happen. So there was sort of a hedge in taking off highly, you know volatile beta like position obviously is a mistake but that's what hedging well I mean
- [25:18]
Scott Wapner
it's hard to you know. Yeah time anything.
- [25:21]
Steven Weiss
It was the right move at the right at that time.
- [25:23]
Scott Wapner
Okay, General Dynamics today cut to a hold from buy it Deutsche Target to 387 from 404. Valuations challenged they say and they say that the growth advantage to their peers is quote likely to shrink over time. Jyoti, what do you think?
- [25:39]
Joe Terranova
We established a position in this name back to in October. If we could broaden out that chart and show a year to date. What's interesting about it is General Dynamics actually peaked in January. You would think Scott that with the conflict in the Middle East a lot of these defense stocks would rally. That's the opposite of what has happened. So there has to be a coordinated global effort to increase defense spending. Yes, we know here in the US we are going to increase that spending. Logically you would seem to think that the fundamentals would align themselves with the defense names actually moving higher. But in fact they are not. We're still maintaining the position. Technically it looks Good. You're getting 10% revenue growth. But you're going to have to see a coordinated increase in defense spending to get the stocks going.
- [26:25]
Scott Wapner
All right. GE Vernova targets $1,008 from 923 it bear to outperform Weiss have that name
- [26:32]
Steven Weiss
look, I mean I hope it gets gets there. You know I own this. It's a mid sized position. It's been, it's been very good to me but I still believe it's overvalued. But I'm riding this particularly having gotten rid of FTAI which is in a related business Power for data centers. This one more advanced, more shots on goal. But I'm sticking with it for now.
- [26:53]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Eaton Target to 439 from 407 at RBC. Jason Snipe.
- [27:00]
Jason Snipe
It's been a great stock all year, right. It's up 21%. I mean it sits in this place of these megatrends. Any transition digitization quarter over quarter data center orders are actually up 200%. So I continue to like this name. I was kind of on the value play early part of the year but
- [27:18]
Scott Wapner
I think that story continues to travelers331 from 312@ Barclays. You have this one, right? Yep.
- [27:23]
Joe Terranova
And we I would imagine we'll maintain the positioning and I think those that are allocated towards specifically insurers and property and casualty to do the same. The comps for catastrophic losses in the upcoming earnings report are going to look really good.
- [27:36]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Got some calls on Staples today. Piper has cut the price target on Colgate palmolive. That's number one. It was 96, now it's 92. Wells Fargo has cut the target to 92 from 100. Goldman cuts the target to 98 from 100 by just. By a couple of bucks. You have the stock.
- [27:57]
Jason Snipe
Yeah. I mean volume pressures, raw material costs I think is part of the story there. I think the focus for me is they continue to focus on the analytics online sales efficiency on supply chain. So I think it's up 7% year to date. So it's obviously outperformed in the top tape. So I continue to like this one for the, for the, some of the, some of the productive reasons in terms of what's going on with analysts.
- [28:17]
Scott Wapner
They also lowered the price target on Proctor, which you have as well.
- [28:21]
Jason Snipe
Yeah. So that stock has, hasn't performed nearly as well. It's roughly flat for the year. I think they're really focusing on product innovation, product improvements and better advertising. I think that's the story for them. But again, when there's 1 to 3% in organic growth, it's always a tough statement, is trading at 20 plus times forward earnings. So I think this is always a tough one when, when kind of the narrative is starting to shift.
- [28:43]
Scott Wapner
Staples are up more than 7% year to date. We think they're too expensive or not.
- [28:48]
Shannon Sokotia
Probably in an, in an environment where we're expecting kind of a recovery in the equity market and less defense, more offense. They're probably spending overspending for that and we still have inflationary impacts. Those are going to go away overnight.
- [29:00]
Scott Wapner
You're not worried about that?
- [29:01]
Jason Snipe
No, I definitely am.
- [29:02]
Scott Wapner
I definitely like, if Joe is right with his general market view, isn't that just an absolute negative for Staples names?
- [29:11]
Jason Snipe
It is, but I believe in the efficiencies, you know, like the objectives and the focus on efficiencies for these stories, I think they could manage through.
- [29:21]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Christina Parts and Evolos has a CNBC news update for us. Hi there. Hi.
- [29:24]
Christina Farcino
Scott Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House aide and star witness at the January six hearings, is reportedly being investigated by the Justice Department's civil Rights division. That's according to the New York Times, which says the probe actually began a few weeks ago when the DOJ received a referral from a trip Trump ally who accused Hutchinson of lying during her testimony. The DOJ civil rights unit usually focuses on abuses such as police misconduct as well as racial discrimination. Democratic backed candidate Chris Taylor won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court yesterday, growing the liberal majority of the court. Taylor is a former Democratic state legislator and focused her campaign on abortion rights. Her win ensures a 10 year term and it's the fourth straight victory for for liberal court candidates in Wisconsin dating back to 2020. And Greece's prime minister said the country will ban social media for kids under 15 years old starting in January 2027. The Greek government has already outlawed mobile phones in schools and set up parental control platforms to limit teen screen time. Greece's parliament will legislate the ban in mid-2026.
- [30:27]
Scott Wapner
Scott all right, Christina, thanks. Christina Farcino. Coming up, Jason and just made a big move in a stock that had its best day since August. We'll tell you what it is next.
- [30:38]
Joe Terranova
As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with the
- [30:45]
Steven Weiss
nation and continue to shape its future.
- [30:54]
Craigie Zildjian
I'm Craigie Zildjian, owner and president of the Aveda Zildjian Company, a manufacturer of musical instruments. The company was Originally started in 1623 in Istanbul by Avadis Iljan I. Avidus was an alchemist and what he created was a unique alloy that produced beautiful, clear sounding symbols. Then in 1929, my grandfather, Avadis III relocated the company. Here in America, we've been proudly made in America ever. America is the largest market for musical instruments and the birth of jazz in America provided an opportunity. Being in America gave us access to these artists. They could come into the factory and we could make new sounds together. My grandfather was unstoppable. His resilience and deep passion led us through the Depression and World War II where we had the war production board putting medal on allocation. When Ringo Starr the Beatles performed on the Ed Sullivan Show in the 1960s, overnight everyone wanted to be a drummer that created a backorder of 90,000 symbols. It made Zildjian the symbol of choice for rock and roll drummers. Being a multi generational company, we're focused on stewardship and the legacy of the brand. What makes a family business overall so successful is the long term perspective that is unique to private companies. I think it's exciting to see that next generation of Zildjian family members learning the business and carrying on the core family values that have been passed down for generations. We're excited to see where the music takes us.
- [32:49]
Trevor Noah
Hey, what's going on over there? It's me, Trevor Noah. You know me. You don't know me.
- [32:56]
Steven Weiss
Oh, you do.
- [32:58]
Trevor Noah
I was worried there for a second. Well, if you know anything about me, you'll know. I love having interesting conversations, conversations where we scratch beneath the surface, like what's really going on in the news? Or what is that celebrity really thinking about that scandal that they had? Or what's the worst way to be a parent? I mean, you want to find that out so you can be the best parent, right? Well, regardless of what it is, this podcast is all about figuring that out, talking to interesting people who have interesting ideas that give us an interesting perspective on the world that we're living in. So check out what now with Trevor Noah, available wherever you get your podcasts.
- [33:39]
Shannon Sokotia
She loves it hot, he loves it cold.
- [33:42]
Edward Jones Narrator
However you sleep, the pod by eight
- [33:44]
Shannon Sokotia
sleep adapts to you. Personalized temperatures keep you in deep sleep longer, so you wake up refreshed. Learn more@eightsleep.com Men are struggling with their
- [33:56]
Dr. Guy Winch
mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need, and that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insights to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
- [34:37]
Scott Wapner
All right, we have another move to tell you about, and it is United Hell wealth, which Jason Snipe has now sold completely. Completely.
- [34:45]
Joe Terranova
Yesterday.
- [34:46]
Jason Snipe
Yesterday. So obviously we got some good news on from the CMS on reimbursement rates, which at 2 1/2% and in January, basically that number was flat. So the stock is up almost 13% in the last five days. But for me, I don't think that's enough in the short run. Medical elevated medical cost trends are going to still be very challenging going forward. Hemsley is a known commodity. I love him as a CEO and I think he'll ride the ship. But I think in the next six to nine months, this is dead money for me. I know there was a story early on where a lot of people got to the exits early. I wasn't one of them, so I decided to get out.
- [35:23]
Steven Weiss
Now.
- [35:24]
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
- [35:25]
Shannon Sokotia
Disagree.
- [35:27]
Scott Wapner
Tell me more.
- [35:28]
Jason Snipe
Wow.
- [35:29]
Joe Terranova
Very confrontational to tell me more.
- [35:31]
Shannon Sokotia
Managed. So it's hard to. To argue, you know, you go from zero percent to two and a half percent when medical costs are probably running at twice that 2x that if not more. But the reality is, is that this is a supportive sign for the government in terms of being more realistic in terms of Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates. The other thing is that there is likelihood for UNH to continue to expand margins. They're getting a handle on MLRs, medical loss ratios. This is not just a UNH story. This is a managed care story. And so our view is that we are constructive on managed care and we believe that there is room to run. This is just another kind of notch in terms of support from the government for that view.
- [36:14]
Scott Wapner
I just think it's going to take a. Mr. Snipe.
- [36:16]
Jason Snipe
Right. I think. I just think it's going to take a lot more time for them to kind of get running. I do, to your point, and I think that's the most salient point. Reimbursement rates, medical cost trends double what the medical what. What the reimbursement rates are. And I think it's just going to take too much time to catch up.
- [36:34]
Scott Wapner
Weiss, don't you still have unh?
- [36:36]
Steven Weiss
I still have unh and it is going to be a tough year. Okay. There's no doubt about. You still have V28 coming in, which changes their coding and things like that. But nonetheless, they are spending a billion and a half on AI for enhancements on the cost structure, which I think will be very, very helpful. They still are the biggest. Hemsley got into a record stock price before he's back fully engaged. So I'm riding it out. You know, could it fall back? Yeah, it's got a history of being very volatile, but. But I like it, you know, bottom line, okay. I'm speaking with my feet. It's in the portfolio.
- [37:13]
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's go some health care calls. Merck. Target goes to 150 today. At Wolf, it was 142. Joe, you have that right now.
- [37:19]
Joe Terranova
That would make it an all time high. And I do think it can get to that price point sooner rather than later. We're pressing up against the high for the year at around 125. I think the one year going back to your high, rather is 134. They're diversifying the model. They understand the patent expiration as it relates to Keytruda, which is literally 1550% of their overall sales of diversifying. They made a recent acquisition. Now they're in the leukemia treatment. So the company is doing the right things, anticipating that Patent expiration.
- [37:50]
Scott Wapner
Okay, what about Amgen, which Truist took to 325from319. They have a hold on it. They're only looking for a modest revenue beat for the quarter. So what do you, what do you think about that?
- [38:02]
Joe Terranova
So the market, when it does go and search for growth, as I believe it is right now, it goes to biotech in the health care sector and large cap biotech in particular. Amgen is a clear leader in that regard. I think that price target is somewhat low. I think you should. I would increase that. I think the stock is, if you pull that back over the last one year, you could see that it is breaking out and they are delivering in terms of revenue and strengthening the balance sheet.
- [38:33]
Scott Wapner
That would be good for your ibb, right?
- [38:35]
Jason Snipe
Without a doubt. And I think, you know, the other part of the story is patent cliffs are obviously coming off the boil and I think that's going to be continued Now. Rates have risen recently, but I think that's also going to be a catalyst for IBV.
- [38:49]
Scott Wapner
What about, what about AbbVie, which got the target cut by 10 bucks, 240, 250 at canner.
- [38:54]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [38:55]
Jason Snipe
And it's down modestly for the year. And I think the story has really been this new JJ slash protagonist drug that is competing directly with Skyrizi, one of my favorite drugs. Right. But I think that, I think that's really this overhang on the stock currently.
- [39:10]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Santoli and his midday word on this very big day in the market is next. Our senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Michael Santoli joins us now with his midday word. Does this have enough going right for it that it's believable or do we need to see something else in your mind to go along with it? What do you think?
- [39:55]
Michael Santoli
I think it's got a little bit to put prove, I would say first of all, it's believable in the sense that it's all quite rational to get up, you know, to two and a half percent. You're slicing off, I think, some of the sort of more outsized risk scenarios you might have been facing 24 hours ago. And so the market's going to kind of go station to station to its next test. If you're kind of looking tactically at a lot of the metrics, you'd want to see if this was going to be a real momentum stampede to the upside. Not quite making the grade on that. It's like 75% upside volume in the New York Stock Exchange. The rally is kind of Halted exactly where you might have expected it would take a pause. It sort of went up, you know, to the 50 day moving average, just sat there for most of the day. So I do think all that is sensible, but it's not something that tells us that you're achieving escape velocity today. And maybe that makes sense. Right. You have oils off the lows of the morning. Yields are also off the lows of the morning. So it feels as if it's wait and see. I think you can assume a tactical low is in from a couple of weeks ago and, and now it's a matter of trying to prove it and also to decide if in fact it was all Iran and oil in the first place and, and whether we've kind of dealt with the other issues that we were contending with since October.
- [41:11]
Scott Wapner
Frankly, for those who don't follow it quite as closely, when you say 70% upside day is not exactly what you would really love to see. It's more like 90 or 90 tell people why that's important. Yeah, I mean beyond the Obvious, sure.
- [41:27]
Michael Santoli
No. 90% of volume to in advancing stocks is historically correlated with one of these real buying frenzies that tends to insulate the market along with some other measures. Now this is a thing called a bread thrust which did fire shortly after the low in April of 2025. And what that really means is historically it's insulated the market from significant downside over the next few months. It basically gives you a 6 to 9 month, 12 month Runway to say you're almost always higher over that span. And we're just somewhat shy of that. And by the way, that sort of makes sense because we weren't coming from as deep a hole and we weren't as washed out. You didn't get as oversold as you often do in these really deep corrections. So I think it makes sense that we didn't necessarily have quite as much fuel. I mean you have plenty of, of negative sentiment and oversold conditions to burn off and go higher from here. But it's just not quite as, as tightly wound as you sometimes are.
- [42:24]
Scott Wapner
All right, great insight. I love you dropping that knowledge on, on us and our viewers. Michael, thank you. I'll see you later. Mike Santoli, Delta shares flying higher today along with the travel trade. No big shock, but we did have Delta earnings. Joe's in it. He'll tell you what to do next. All right, Delta shares are popping today. You see 6%. No big surprise. A lot of the travel names are obviously. But this company did have Earnings, you own the stock. So what's your, what's your read through on this? Just obviously the news of the moment, but plus the earnings, plus still cautious commentary related to energy prices and the drag that it's going to be on these companies.
- [43:13]
Joe Terranova
And there should be. I still think you should have a cautious outlook as it relates to all travel names. I think this is an idiosyncratic story. This is about premium and pricing power in the front of the plane. And really what Delta has done, which I believe every airline should be pursuing, is the 2012 acquisition of a refinery in Philadelphia, which basically cost them less than $250 million. It was $150 million in a purchase price from Philip 66. The state gave it back 30 million. They invested 100 million in it. And if you look going forward, Ed Bastian told you today that they're going to see probably about a $400 million fuel cost savings in the second quarter from that. That does not mean they're not going to have a higher fuel cost in front of them. He guided to 2 billion as we approach through the end of June. So that's still there. I think it's idiosyncratic with Delta, as you said. I think you still have to be cautious on travel. I don't think you have the all clear there.
- [44:13]
Scott Wapner
I mean, cruises are up a bunch today.
- [44:15]
Joe Terranova
Casinos, relief rally.
- [44:17]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, of course, yeah.
- [44:18]
Joe Terranova
More than anything else.
- [44:20]
Scott Wapner
Potentially has legs though. I mean, if, if there's reason to have such strong relief.
- [44:25]
Joe Terranova
Well, that's part of the point. Royal Caribbean has been a really strong name. It's a momentum name. So it's participating in that momentum story and rebound that we're seeing today. Again, Royal Caribbean's idiosyncratic. I don't think you could have this universal assumption that all travel is going to be good.
- [44:41]
Scott Wapner
Okay, we're back right after this.
- [45:00]
Steven Weiss
Show.
- [45:00]
Scott Wapner
Robin Hood for us, guys, because the stock's up 10% or at least it was. That's up 5%, but you get the idea. Big pop in that name today. Relief rally for certain. Robinhood. The retail investor engagement got to be good. Bitcoin's bounce got to be good, right? Bitcoin's been up a bunch today too. So that one's up. Just wanted to show you that.
- [45:21]
Craigie Zildjian
That.
- [45:21]
Scott Wapner
And let's talk about gold for a second as well today because the, you know, the gold trade is working today to up 2%. The miners are getting a lift. Why she owned the gold. What do we do for a trade that's been Kind of volatile of late.
- [45:35]
Steven Weiss
It has. I personally think you hold gold and there's a place in it for the portfolio. I didn't always think that and I'm not always going to think that either. But right now I think it's going to move back up to where the highs were. You're shaking out a lot of the tourists and it'll gain some traction.
- [45:52]
Scott Wapner
Now you're a believer in gold. I think you said you for the moment, no intrinsic value. You couldn't. No, no, you couldn't value.
- [45:58]
Steven Weiss
There's no.
- [45:58]
Scott Wapner
But you said in gold for a long time you couldn't value it. Gold is why you said you haven't always been a believer.
- [46:04]
Steven Weiss
No, I haven't. And gold is difficult to value because like oil, difficult to value.
- [46:09]
Joe Terranova
There's.
- [46:09]
Steven Weiss
There's a lot of speculators and traders, commodity traders in it. But nonetheless I think it regains. Its putting a move higher.
- [46:17]
Joe Terranova
It's risk on. It is the end of March gold's risk on. I think gold is risk on. Now the end of March, I bought the gold at 404. That's for a trade. It's not for some strong fundamental belief on monetary policy or any of that.
- [46:29]
Steven Weiss
Let me know when you get out. Before you get out.
- [46:31]
Joe Terranova
Why is that, Steve?
- [46:32]
Steven Weiss
You want money to sell first?
- [46:35]
Scott Wapner
We'll do. We'll do finals next. All right, three o' clock today. Closing bell is going to be an active final hour of trade with Tom Lee, Mina Flynn, Jeff Degraff, Marco Kada and Sonali Basak. And I hope you'll join me then see what this market does over that last hour of trade.
- [46:57]
Joe Terranova
Mr. Weiss, light to you.
- [47:01]
Steven Weiss
Leidos. It's lagging terms of performance today it's up less than 1%. There is a slight software overhang here but I think they'll be able to overcome it because they are an AI leader in the space.
- [47:14]
Scott Wapner
Okay, who's got Goldman?
- [47:15]
Jason Snipe
Goldman, that's me. Goldman Sachs. Porsche on Monday. I think capital markets revenue will continue to surge.
- [47:21]
Shannon Sokotia
Shan Consumer discretionary. Not all of the tax refund increase will be cannibalized by higher energy prices.
- [47:26]
Scott Wapner
All right, you talked about GLW, right?
- [47:29]
Joe Terranova
Benefits from the relationship with Meta building out AI infrastructure.
- [47:32]
Scott Wapner
Meta ripping two. I'll see you three. You've been listening to CNBC's halftime report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:46]
Edward Jones Narrator
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company. Or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer.
- [48:21]
Dr. Guy Winch
Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season, we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.