Strong GDP and Stocks 12/23/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Strong GDP and Stocks
Date: December 23, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Josh Brown

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Episode Overview

The panel analyzes a surprisingly strong GDP report and discusses its implications for markets as investors look to 2026. Central to the debate: Will persistent economic strength and higher-than-expected rates force a rethink on portfolios, and is the era of rate cuts postponed? The investment committee weighs the risks of a hawkish Fed, sector leadership, and whether the rally can broaden beyond mega-cap tech. Segments also touch on housing, financials, dividend stocks, and the enduring value of human investment advisors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Strong GDP Print and Market Reactions

• [00:57] The US GDP came in at 4.3%, the highest reading since Q3 2023.
• Scott Wapner highlights market confusion, as decent economic data coexists with questions about rates and Fed direction.
  • “Front and center this hour: what the much better than expected GDP report means for stocks in the new year.”
• Josh Brown sees higher global rates as “the new normal.”
  • “Absent a financial crisis or another pandemic, there’s no reason for investors to believe that we’re going to run right back down to 0% interest rates...there is this possibility that intermediate longer term rates look something more like 3%, 4% than 0% to 1%.” [03:35]

2. Rates, Inflation, and Fed Outlook

• Debate on whether investors are prepared for rates to stay elevated.
• Stephanie Link: Celebrates strong GDP, especially consumer resilience. Predicts S&P earnings growth in "the low teens to mid-teens next year given the momentum that we have." [05:17]
• Joe Terranova: Stresses the importance of bond market volatility over absolute yields.
  • “If you’re sharing with me that in 2026 it’s going to be...a very wide range for US ten-year treasury, that’s problematic...” [07:09]

3. Equity Market Context for 2026

• Panel discusses how different sectors could fare:
  • Joe Terranova: “In this scenario you probably want to own the Mag 7, you want to stay high up in quality...financial services.”
  • Jenny Harrington: Suggests trimming risk given market’s 17% YTD gains and bear market risk in 1H 2026. [09:26]

4. Sector Deep Dive

• Housing

  • Stephanie Link likes housing for the long term but admits better revenues need lower rates. Constructive on homebuilders like D.R. Horton, citing pent-up demand. [10:40]
  • Jenny Harrington: Argues buyers need to adapt to 6%+ mortgage rates—waiting for 5% may be futile. [12:28]

• Financials

  • Josh Brown: “Bank stock investors are not necessarily rooting for cuts and cuts and cuts. These banks make a lot of money with where rates are right now.” [14:06]
  • Performance is more about stable rates and earnings growth than actual number of rate cuts.

• Tech vs. Broadening Trade

  • Scott Wapner: Raises Goldman Sachs note questioning whether earnings outperformance can broaden beyond tech.
  • Jenny Harrington: “It really is about where those expectations are. How easy is it going to be to beat?” [17:05]
  • Stephanie Link: Reiterates that “technology, absolutely, you have very strong earnings potential and amazing free cash flow. That is not going to change...But that said, I do think you’re going to see a lot of great earnings story from financials.” [18:09-19:57]
  • Stock picking within sectors like industrials and financials becomes more important—broadening doesn’t mean equal wins for all.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown on rates reality:
  “There’s no reason for investors to believe that we’re going to run right back down to 0% interest rates... intermediate longer term rates look something more like 3%, 4%.” [03:35]

• Stephanie Link:
  “The consumer was supposedly dead, Scott. They’re not dead.” [05:17]

• Jenny Harrington:
  “If Tom’s right, you know what you do with that? You take a little risk off the table. This doesn’t mean get bearish, but maybe you take a little risk off.” [09:26]

• Joe Terranova:
  “The market can go higher with an elevated U.S. ten-year.” [07:02]

• Josh Brown on human advisors vs. robo:
  “The war is over. Human advisors won.” [33:46]
  “It was never going to be one or the other and that’s not how it played out.” [35:35]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• GDP & Rates Discussion: [00:57] – [07:00]
• Sector Strategies for 2026: [07:00] – [15:54]
• Tech vs. Broadening Market: [15:54] – [21:47]
• Calls of the Day: [27:15] – [31:21]
• Man vs. Machine (Human vs. Robo Advisors): [33:36] – [39:53]
• Dividend Picks for 2026 (Top Dividend Plays): [42:10] – [49:04]
• Final Trades/Wrap-up: [49:04] – [49:23]

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Stock & Sector Calls of the Day

• First Solar (Joe): Top pick at Mizuho, down 6% today—needs to “prove itself innocent.” [27:22]
• Live Nation (Josh): “Crown jewel” to play the secular trend of live concerts. [28:09]
• Estee Lauder (Stephanie): Likes the turnaround story into 2026. [28:37]
• Amtech (Joe): “Right place as it relates to electrical equipment and supplies.” [29:42]
• FedEx (Josh): Turnaround play with coming freight division spinoff. [30:36]

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Dividend & Yield Strategy

Jenny Harrington's Top 2026 Picks (with rationale):

• Amcor: Post-merger, expected 13% earnings growth. Dividend aristocrat.
• Bristol Myers: Yield ~4.5%. “Huge cash cow.” Benefits from improved health sector clarity.
• Enbridge: 40,000-mile pipeline network. Attractive for energy demand, 6%+ yield.
• Vici Properties: Casino REIT, “100% occupancy even during the pandemic.” Currently on sale, but misunderstood due to Vegas noise.
  • “They have 100% occupancy. During the pandemic, when almost every REIT out there had some occupancy issue, they maintained 100% occupancy.” [42:47]

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The Human vs. Robo Advisor Debate

• Josh Brown: Declares victory for human financial advisors after Wealthfront’s subdued IPO.
  • “Rich people don’t talk to robots, Jenny.” [36:42]
• Jenny Harrington/Panel: Note that AI’s role may still evolve but emotional advice is hard to automate.
• Joe Terranova: “How do you manage the emotion...when life circumstances may change?” [38:23]
• Ongoing need for human touch, especially during emotional and complex financial events.

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Closing Notes

• Market participants see the need to plan for a world in which “higher for longer” rates are not a surprise.
• Stock picking and sector leadership are paramount going into an uncertain 2026.
• Panelists agree that while tech remains a dependable earnings driver, opportunities exist in industrials, financials, and selected yield plays—emphasizing that performance will likely require selectivity rather than sector-wide bets.

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Final Trades

• Milrose Properties (Jenny): 9% yield, ties into housing theme.
• ExxonMobil (Josh): “Breaking out.”
• India ETF - INDA (Steph): Positive on the India story.
• Semis: Nvidia, Broadcom (Joe): “All going higher.” [49:19]

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For listeners and investors, the episode offers an in-depth market pulse, practical positioning ideas for 2026, and highlights the necessary shift from sector allocation to selective stock picking in an environment of persistent growth and sticky rates.

Transcript

[Josh Brown]

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[Scott Wapner]

The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx the new power move. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, what the much better than expected GDP report means for stocks in the new year. Discuss and debate that with the investment committee today. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington and Josh Brown taking to the markets a bit of a mixed picture today. Headline though. GDP much stronger than expected. 43 highest read since Q3 of 2023. You know Josh, I wonder what does to the thinking on rates. Torsten Slok at Apollo says long term interest rates will remain higher for longer. Investors should plan accordingly. Deutsche bank today ratchet higher for yields is a significant story. I mean we've been talking about and gaming out and planning for a rate cut in early 26. What if the Fed takes a hawkish tilt? I mean, do investors need to rethink this whole scenario if growth is going to remain stronger than expected, if there's going to be a run it hot idea.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, look, without a doubt there are segments of the market that have benefited from the Fed cutting and from this idea that whomever Trump installs next year is going to have a bias toward lower rates almost no matter what the data is. And as a result, yesterday we were talking about the Dow transports having unbelievable performance. We've talked on the network about small caps almost endlessly over the last month. And these are all areas where that idea of a little bit of easing and a little bit more accommodative Fed policy, it's important like it matters. It matters not just to the fundamentals of the regional banks which we talked about, but it matters to sentiment around these sectors as well. It matters to the potential for multiple expansion. And so it is. It is notable. The thing That I would point out though is higher rates are a phenomenon around the world. In Japan, they raised rates twice this year, which sounds like nothing, but for Japan it's a really big deal. They did a 50 basis point rate hike to start the year and just a week and a half or two weeks ago they did another 25 basis points. And if you look at the 10 year on the Japanese bond, it's gone from 1% to 2% this year. Again, doesn't sound like that big of a deal until I remind you it's Japan. So we are seeing higher rates around the world. And I think what will be different about this cycle, I'm hoping absent a financial crisis or another pandemic, there's no reason for investors to believe that we're going to run right back down to 0% interest rates. I know that's people's default setting given the history of the last 15 years since the great financial crisis. But there is this possibility that intermediate longer term rates look something more like 3%, 4% than 0% to 1%. And that's just the world that we're in. I think stocks can become accustomed to that idea. I don't think it's the death knell of the bull market and frankly, I don't think rates need to go that much lower just given where economic activity is. So I think we're okay. But I do agree with you, Judge.

[Scott Wapner]

It's a story, you know, Steph, rates going up for the right. I'm anticipating what I think you were going to say are still rates going up and you know, a Fed with a willingness to run things hot still has the risk of stoking inflation any higher than it is now. I feel like the market today looks at the GDP report and is trying to figure out what it means in the. In the bigger story. Yes, the economy is good by this measure. Obviously now there's some trade things in there and what have you. Productivity is having a real impact on growth. So 24% of the S&P in 2023, 23% in 2024. We're clocking 17% gain right now. Who knows what we're going to do over the next and last few days of the year. But how do you put it into context what this all means for the equity market in the new year?

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I'm going to celebrate stronger than expected growth. You know that about me, right?

[Scott Wapner]

That's right.

[Stephanie Link]

4.3%. We haven't seen that in years. Number one, consumption, 3.5%. The consumer was supposedly dead. Scott, they're not dead. At 3.5%, personal consumption savings at 4.2%. That's a, that's better than historic numbers of 2%. You mentioned productivity. You nailed it. Productivity. We haven't seen productivity like this in decades. And that's going to help the inflation.

[Scott Wapner]

And it's only going to continue to increase, obviously.

[Stephanie Link]

Of course. So in a 2% GDP world, let's just say we get back there, I don't see it. But you can grow earnings at 8 to 10%. That's really usually what we do. What we see, we're going to see probably mid teens, low teens to mid teens earnings growth in next year given the momentum that we have. And it is the consumer and it is a I. But it's not all a I. Right. Everyone was saying that, oh, the only reason we're growing is because it's the AI boom. Well, it's also a very important piece of our economy is the consumer. So it's very important to watch that. So I think you're going to have better earnings. So you asked me, are we going to grow 2017, 2024% next year? I don't really know in the market, but I do think if earnings are too low and earnings get revised higher, the markets will be higher. And my base case is something like 10%. The long term average is 7.7%. We should be happy with that. But long term, I mean, I think I feel really good heading in because I think estimates have to move higher.

[Scott Wapner]

But long term rates higher for longer if SLOC is correct and investors should plan accordingly. What does that mean? How should you plan accordingly if you think that rates are going to be higher for longer?

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, well, let's put it into context. First of all, the US 10 year treasury has not been below 3 1/2% since June of 2023. During that time frame, the S and P is up greater than 60%. So the market can go higher with an elevated US 10 year. I think what's important to think about in the scenario you're describing is where is bond market volatility? Because bond market volatility this year has been very calm. It's been in a benign environment. If you're sharing with me that in 2026 it's going to be in an environment where we have a very wide range for a US 10 year treasury, that's problematic. And I think ultimately the places that that takes you to as an investor is the places where you're most comfortable. You'll probably make the return to large caps over small caps. You probably want to own the Mag 7, you want to stay high up in quality in the financial services, you want to own the big money center banks. So I think that's what's important. When you think about where yields are going to go in 2026, what's the volatility that correlates with whatever the price direction is.

[Scott Wapner]

What happens if the Fed does take a more hawkish tilt? Like even somebody who's really bullish on the markets consistently, like Tom Lee, is not expecting this incredible year next year, that the first half of the year could be a little bumpy and maybe you could even dip into a bear market before you pick up. Those are his words, not mine. He's the one who is as bullish as anybody, but is suggesting that if the Fed is more hawkish, if rates remain elevated, that maybe some of the great feeling about what's happening is going to be hard to materialize, at least initially. Especially if you say, well, maybe the first half of the year, the Fed's in the penalty box, they don't have a new chair yet, we don't know what's going to be till May, then you have to wait for a meeting. So you're six months into the year and if you have hot GDP like you do now, with inflation a little bit elevated, they're not going to be so quick to want to cut rates necessarily.

[Jenny Harrington]

I think that's right. And I think this is perfect timing because it's not time right now to look back. And while the economic data just came in great and it was strong and it was hot, I care a heck of a lot less about those numbers than I do about what I think they'll be in the future. And I'm not sure that they're so predictive. They were hot. And I think everybody knows that there might be some noise and some. And some missed data in them. Not a lot, but a little. So we look forward and we say, do we really think that those numbers will continue at this pace and in that direction? Pace, I don't think so. Direction maybe, you know, has the market at up 17% year to date. Has it already incorporated all that great news in, you know, what's the leadership of next year going to be? And if Tom's right, you know what you do with that? You take a little risk off the table. And this doesn't mean get bearish, this doesn't mean cash out of your stocks, but maybe you take a little risk off maybe if you're 100% in kind of a growth the equity portfolio like why not take 10%, 5%, 15, whatever makes sense for you. Why not put a little in? Because if you're thinking about this now you're going to feel pretty badly if Tom's right and there is a short term bear market coming and you didn't do anything. So I think it's a great time to think forward to reposition a little It. I don't know, I think it's hard. Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Certain things may not work. Like your housing trade. I don't like. Look, housing stocks are down today. No shock if you're talking about longer term rates remaining elevated. You can't convince me that this trade is going to work. It's antithetical to what people had thought was going to happen. Right. I mean I'm looking at Steph squarely because this has been one of her her leaned on areas of the market. How do you counter that?

[Stephanie Link]

And I still like housing for the long term but I have recognized you need lower rates. We have gone from 7.4% in the 30 year fixed to 6.3 today. We need to get that in the mid fives. But in the meantime the companies the best in class operators are managing as best they can. You are at trough levels in gross margins and operating margins for something like let's just take Dr. Horton, which is what I own. But you're at the trough levels. You are at 13 times forward estimates. Numbers have actually been de risked. Not a lot needs to go right. I will acknowledge to get better revenues you need better demand and that will come again as rates come down. But I do believe there's enormous pent up demand where we are 5 million homes short in this country.

[Scott Wapner]

Everybody knows that. I hear you. Wait.

[Stephanie Link]

I'm going to tell you I'm not.

[Scott Wapner]

Going to take how long you, how long you will. Are you willing to wait? Because if you've liked it for the long term, you've liked it for the long term the past few years when rates have been elevated and the market's been an ice cube and actually I've.

[Stephanie Link]

Made money in the name because I did buy it pretty well. And you have fits and starts. These, they're kind of like have been in this trading range any width of lower rates and these things take off right now we're waiting but I do think the Fed is going to continue to ease. I don't know if it's 1, 2, 3 times next year Scott, but you are getting To Joe's point, a dovish new Fed chair come the spring and they will be and I think they can because the labor market is cool enough for them. And inflation, if you look at rents and wages, they're coming down and inflation is coming down. So I think you are going to continue to see the Fed be accommodative, get to neutral policy and that should be enough to get these really down and out stocks to work.

[Jenny Harrington]

So Steph, the one thing I disagree with you on is that I don't think you need to have rates get down to that 5% for it to move. Here's the thing, here's my argument. I think you need to do exactly what Torsten Slok says and I think you need to plan accordingly. I bet you when all of us bought our first house mortgage rates were about what they are now. If people can adjust in their minds, like maybe they're not going to see 5%, maybe they're just not and you need to suck it up and you need to go with a 6.2% mortgage now, maybe if they can adjust and plan accordingly, maybe things can move before rates get there. And I think that's this challenge is because there's been so much chatter of the Fed's going to cut, the Fed's going to cut. Then everyone just keeps waiting and waiting like what if we get a hawkish read?

[Scott Wapner]

That's I mean it's all fine and good trying to tell people who are in a three handle mortgage that hey, just suck it up. That's why it's and go.

[Stephanie Link]

It's no, but it's not going to.

[Jenny Harrington]

Be coming from, it's not going to.

[Stephanie Link]

Be coming from existing home sales, it's going to come from new home sales. That's one of the reasons why I own the stocks that I do because they're very dependent on the first time buyer. And a new home does this, does.

[Scott Wapner]

This idea of higher rates do anything to the financials trade Josh along. If you pair that with a more hawkish Fed, like if you have the short end, maybe start to move up a little bit, you don't have as steep of a yield curve, which was one of the big thoughts behind well net interest margin and all that makes perfect sense. If you have a steepening yield curve then you're going to have more benefit from that. Maybe not so much. I'm not suggesting this trade doesn't work all of a sudden, but I just wonder if you need to factor this in, plan accordingly. As Torsten Slok would say, I don't.

[Josh Brown]

Know, I feel like the market is very smart and you've had unbelievable performance in the financials this year. The banks in particular were, the large banks in particular were just absolute standouts and frankly we did not get a ton of rate cuts this year. It wasn't the important thing. The important thing and maybe it's a dirty little secret, the bank stock investors are not necessarily rooting for cuts and cuts and cuts. These banks make a lot of money with where rates are right now on the asset management side. On the bank, yes. On the banking side too.

[Ad Read Voice]

Yeah.

[Josh Brown]

And I just don't think like a ton of rate cuts are the thing that's, that's driving performance. Citi is the second best bank stock in the market this year of financial stock after Robinhood. It's up 70%. Goldman up 60. Right. BlackRock up 53. Morgan Stanley up 43. You're telling me that performance is based on three rate cuts next year? No, I think there's so much more going on. Financials as it stands right now are expected to grow earnings 9.3% over the next 12 months. I think, I think they'll probably outdo that and I don't think that rate cuts are a necessary ingredient on the, on the housing side. Stephanie is right. It's really going to be new home building that's going to be. That represent the housing cycle. And I don't think the 30 year is necessarily the thing to watch. I think it's a 10 year mortgages key off the 10 year and refi activity keys off the 10 year more so than, than the long bond. And from that perspective you say like oh we're going to see short rates go up a lot. I don't know. I think it's more the volatility of rates that might have a bigger impact on the way people think about these stocks rather than the level itself.

[Scott Wapner]

That's why Joe was you know I think alluding to as well volatility in the bond market and what happens there. I love this note today, this blurb from a note from Goldman Sachs. As they think about the new year ahead they think about the broadening trade. You can factor in today's GDP report in any way you'd like on how you think that's going to impact stuff. But they say quote consensus expectations are calling for notable year on year accelerations in EPS growth everywhere outside of tmt. That's the nasdaq, Tech, media, telecom. So they lean heavily on the NASDAQ obviously is this likely to play out? Does Micron's print serve as a reminder of the beat raised potential in tech? In other words? Maybe, yeah, all these expectations are Jenny, so high outside of tech, but Micron's like, okay, remember, which by the way is up 228% year to date. Here's the power you get of an earnings growth and beat and raise and all that from tech relative to everything else. And you can make a broadening story all you want. It's not going to look as great as you're going to get from tech, which is going to continue to deliver.

[Jenny Harrington]

I think that's right. And so again, as we look forward and we think about who the leadership is next year, it was so interesting to me looking at the list of returns on chips year to date, Nvidia is up 37%. That's amazing. It's also the worst return in the list we've got with Micron leading and Teradyne, which we own up 56%. So it really is about where those expectations are. How easy is it going to be going to be to beat? You know, there's a couple of stocks in our dividend strategy where they're, you know, they're trading at like 10 times, 9 times earnings. They should have, I don't know, 12, 13, 14% earnings growth next year. That should be a very easy beat. Nobody's talking about that. Nobody's looking at that. So I think it's about expectations both in tech and out of tech.

[Scott Wapner]

Is this stuff a reality check on the broadening idea that yes, you can get broadening? Of course not, not suggesting that you can't, nor are they, but if you think of where you're going to get the most reliable earnings growth, it's going to come from tech still and it's not going to be as reliable in all these other places. Despite the story that people would like to tell.

[Stephanie Link]

Hmm. I, I think technology, absolutely, you have very strong earnings potential and amazing free cash flow. That is not going to change. And in fact, even if you look at some of the mag sevens and some of the technology companies that are spending on AI, even though they're spending so much on Capex, they're still generating a lot of free cash flow, which is one of the reasons why you and I talked about Oracle and why I would not buy that one, because they don't have free cash flow, but a lot of the other ones do. And I think you're getting an opportunity. But that said, I do think you're going to See a lot of great earnings story from financials and it's not, you're right, it's not just nii. I mean do you know that Global M and a year to date is up 27% and in the US up 56%. Capital markets activity, loan growth, the consumer, all of that. So financials I think are going to have, they set up very well, especially with deregulation because they're trading in the mid teens on a multiple basis and I know we don't use P E for them, but let's just, let's just use this exercise. They're not trading at 23 times and you have deregulation. I think I agree with Tom Lee in terms of they can try. Do they trade like technology stocks? Maybe not, but they can trade higher. So that's number one. Industrials, they absolutely benefit from this AI capex cycle. And you've heard me say I own a ton of those names and those earnings are coming in at 20, 30% because their backlogs are 20 and 30%. Sure.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you feel, I guess the point of this note is like, do you feel, do you feel as. As confident that you can bank on the kind of earnings growth that is projected right now from everything outside of tech as you do inside, or are you more susceptible to disappointment from all of those other areas which then would call into question the broadening trade, which is why people would go back to tech because it's more tried and true, they can count on it.

[Stephanie Link]

But I don't think it needs to be one or the other. I think you can barbell.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, but it's going to come. Ultimately it comes down to what earnings are going to deliver.

[Stephanie Link]

But I think what I just, I just laid out why financials are going higher, why industrials are going higher while the grid companies are going to go higher because we haven't upgraded the grid in 50 years and the backlogs there are huge. Why we don't have enough power. How about the aviation cycle that's on fire between Boeing and, and Airbus? And so there's that. And then you have automation, which we actually haven't even talked about, but I've been buying slowly, Rockwell Automation for that very reason. Because guess what, Scott, they went from 3% organic growth in the second quarter to 13% organic growth.

[Scott Wapner]

Some of, some of this has to be priced into these stocks at this point, which is why that has to live up to the hype. Well, and I think the charts don't lie.

[Jenny Harrington]

I think the challenge is you can say tech. If we're talking about just the sector sectors and not the stocks, you can say yes, as a sector tech probably is the most predictable. But then even in industrials like you get to be in the good industrials, right? Because you don't have this, this dividend need. But in the like there's also really crummy industrials with terrible or even think about financials like it's a huge difference between Citi and Blue Owl this year.

[Stephanie Link]

So maybe this will be a stock pickers market. I wonder about that.

[Jenny Harrington]

But like I think it's harder to make the arguments like you know, each sector collectively has more disparities other than tech.

[Stephanie Link]

But this is why you have to focus and understand within industrials you don't want to own machinery, but you do want to own the companies that are helping to build out the grid and that sort of thing. So we have, I think we're saying the same thing. Maybe it's not holistically industrials but there are a lot of industrials that are going to benefit. And oh by the way, the, the, the, the PMI ISE are still below 50. That's when you buy industrials by the way because that's when you really see the inflection to earnings, which is what Scott is asking. I have a lot of confidence given the strong economy, you are going to see a recovery.

[Scott Wapner]

You and B of A. You and B of A. I mean they're talking about industrial momentum. How the indicator that they look at is flashing positive, a positive note. They mentioned that one specifically which you, which you do have. I want to get to a move that you have as well in the best performing sector of the quarter, which is health care. So you got the news today on the FDA approving the first GLP1 pillars from Novo. You like animal health. You have and you bought more Zoetis.

[Stephanie Link]

Tell us why Gino. It's been not since March of 2021 where this stock Zoetis has traded at a discounted multiple to Elanco. Now congrats to Elanco. I happen to own it but it's up 81%. It's a turnaround story. I'm inclined to take more profits there because it's now trading at 23 times forward. I was buying it at 11. Zoetis on the other hand average 30 times. That's its average. It's trading at 19 times and it has massively underperformed for good reason because the CEO cannot execute the last three quarters. They actually have come in line but have Lowered. And that's the reason the stock hasn't done well. Now I think it's gone overboard. I still like the total addressable market. I don't know if the CEO is even going to be in the seat a year from now. But they better get. She better get her act together where you're going to have activism because this is a, this is a three legged horse. Right. Race rather. This is Zoetis, this is Elanco, this is idex, which Joe owns. And it's a total addressable market that's going to be $100 billion by 2035. And these guys used to be the leader. They still are. They have 20% market share, but they haven't executed. I'm assuming that I'm taking it into consideration next year. You have a mean reversion.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, Piper says it's overcorrected and that your willingness to support the new product launches in 26 and 27 will likely be rewarded. Yeah, maybe. Have to wait. They have a neutral on it still. But it sounds like you're willing to obviously do that. Your favorite trade of late's been the xpi.

[Joe Terranova]

XPI favorite trade. The veterinary trade is a very strong trade. Let's also mention IDEX is in the midst of a little bit of a pullback here. Sitting right at the 100 day moving average perfect spot from the perspective of a low risk point of reference.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, metals have been in the news this week. We might as well hit those before we go. Gold, silver, new record high today. Copper having its best year since 2009. Freeport Jenny gets the target up today to 55 from 47. Well, says Overweight.

[Jenny Harrington]

Yeah, and even, even with the positive return in it doing so while you still have a company that trades at 17 times earnings with a 7% free cash flow yield. And it's one of the only ways to get a pure play on copper. On copper from just an easy stock you sold.

[Scott Wapner]

Report for Anto.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, because the execution is so spotty at Freeport. So that's the reason it trades at the multiple that it does. And if Augusta actually is the best operator with the best production growth of 30% and it trades at 11 times EBITDA. But if copper goes higher, both of these stocks are going to go higher.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a break. We will come back, talk about our calls of the day. We have five bullish calls today on five committee stocks. And later, Jenny is going to lay out her top dividend place for the new year. Don't want to miss that half times back into.

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[Jenny Harrington]

What made you confident that you could.

[Stephanie Link]

Do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.

[Julia Boorstin]

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[Scott Wapner]

All right, welcome back. Let's do some calls of the day. First Solar is called a top pick today at Mizuho. Joe, you on the stock?

[Joe Terranova]

I do. Look at that reversal in the stock today. It's now down 6%. It was up this morning, up yesterday. Yesterday was up on the back of the deal that was announced between Alphabet and Intersect Power Understanding Intersect is a customer of First Solar, so they should benefit there as Alphabet moves into clean energy. It's a recent addition to the ETF for us, so it's more guilty awaiting to prove itself innocent. It's cheap on a valuation basis. It's had several runs over the last 17 years towards $300 and failed. We'll see what happens here. I don't like today's price action.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Yeah, down six zero point percent. Nice year obviously, as you said. Live Nation. Josh, top pick at Evercore today. What do you think about this stock moving forward?

[Josh Brown]

Look, I think this is a crown jewel type of name. There is no other way to play what is arguably one of the biggest secular trends of our lifetime. We thought people would lose interest in going to concerts sometime after 2021, 2022. If anything, it's intensified. That will not change next year. This is a one stop shop to capture it.

[Scott Wapner]

Steph, you initially bought Estee lauder on the 16th. You added more just two days later.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

The target today to 100 bucks at Jefferies.

[Stephanie Link]

I really like this story for 2026, Scott. I really think this turnaround is just beginning with this new CEO. The US and China are seeing a recovery in prestige makeup and cosmetics and they have a margin rebuild plan as well. So I think they can get the execution right. They've got the products and they're working on the cost cutting side. So I really like the setup for 2026.

[Scott Wapner]

It's notable though that they raised the target to only 100 bucks. Stocks at 107 and a half.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, I mean I think it goes.

[Scott Wapner]

I think it sounds like it's like a. Maybe they're non believers.

[Stephanie Link]

I think it's a, it's a show me story, Scott. Right. And so I believe I like what the program is. It's called beauty reimagined strategy technology. That's what they're calling this turnaround. And you know this. The CEO has been at the company for such a long time and he knows the prestige market very, very well. I think China really was a problem for them in terms of their distribution and they're fixing all of this. And so I think it'll be a slow turn, but I think it's a turn.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Amy is a record high today. Amtech, Joe, that's you industrial name in.

[Joe Terranova]

The right place as it relates to electrical equipment and supplies, whether it's commercial aerospace or utilities itself. Seeing really strong momentum. Having exposure to commercial aerospace has been important in 2025 and in 2024. One of the names we've owned over the last several years has been How Met. How Met has been really, really strong. Strong tailwinds there. But Amtech continues to press higher. It's cheap on a valuations basis. I think Josh has it in best stocks in the market. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's, I heard him mention that as well.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, we did it. We did it three weeks ago. I mean, obvious breakout and no sellers in sight.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm sorry, I'm sorry. You talked about FedEx yesterday. I bring it up because it was reiterated by a Deutsche quite ironically, they say one of the most inexpensive names in our coverage posted the best numbers to close out the year. Again, you highlighted it yesterday. So give us a little reminder as to why yet.

[Josh Brown]

Look, this is a, this is a stock that I was surprised to see it on the best stocks in the market list because they've had a lot of the same challenges at ups. But there's a turnaround happening here. And when they reported last week, I think that was solidified in the minds of investors. I mentioned 300 to 315 as an area that's been resistance multiple times. It's going to make another run at that. I think this time she gets through. One thing to keep in mind is that in June, they're going to be spinning off the troubled freight division into its own publicly traded company. The ticker will be FDF X. And a lot of people are talking FDX F. And a lot of people are talking about that as a moment that will unlock a lot of shareholder value here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a break, actually. We'll get the headlines with Deirdre Bosa. Heidi.

[Jenny Harrington]

Hey, Scott.

[Julia Boorstin]

Former Senator Ben Sasse announced today he has stage 4 pancreatic cancer. The Republican from Nebraska called the diagnosis the death sentence today in a post on X, but said he is not going down without a fight. Sasse served in the Senate from 2015 until early January 2023. He was one of seven Republicans who voted to convict President Trump in his second impeachment trial. He went on to become president of the University of Florida, resigning last year. Meantime, authorities in the UK Say comedian Russell Brand has been charged with a new new count of rape and another of sexual assault. It comes after he was charged back in April in London with five counts related to accusations of rape and assault by four women. He pleaded not guilty in that case. Brand is expected in court in January to face the new charges, and the trial on his earlier charges is set to begin in June. And finally, the Louvre in Paris is tightening security following October's brazen daylight heist at the museum. Crews installed metal bars to the second floor window where the Thieves entered the museum by Crane to steal $100 million worth of French crown jewels. Back to you. A lo fi solution. Scott.

[Scott Wapner]

Maybe more security is a good thing. Okay, D. Thanks. Dear Jerbosa. Coming up, man versus machine. Josh Brown declaring a winner in that battle. He will explain next.

[Jenny Harrington]

What made you confident that you could.

[Stephanie Link]

Do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.

[Julia Boorstin]

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

[Stephanie Link]

One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Julia Boorstin]

Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, your newsletter the other day got our attention. The headline says, quote, the war is over. Human advisors won. What do you mean?

[Josh Brown]

So we had an IPO very quietly. There wasn't a lot of attention around it for a company called Wealthfront, which is one of the most successful of the robo advisors. There are really only two standalone direct to consumer robos of any kind of scale. Wealthfront's one of them. And when you look at its fundamentals levels, they're actually doing pretty well. Good profit margins and they're growing. The problem is more than half of the money under management at that company is in money market or cash management products, which is not exactly financial advice. Not exactly. It's more. That's more banking than anything else. And I just thought it was a poignant moment to recall all the predictions back in 2012 about how wealth management would be automated and that financial advisors would be losing their jobs in the thousands. And of course, it's been the exact opposite. The entire RIA channel is about $140 trillion now. It's grown substantially since 2012, far outpacing anything that's happened on the robo side. And quite frankly, you can get robo advice on almost any financial app, whether it's so far or you're talking about the incumbents. Vanguard, Schwab Schwab gives away for free. Coinbase is now doing robo. Robinhood is doing robo. It's basically a feature and it's a commoditized business. And it not only had no impact whatsoever on human financial advice, actually, the financial advisory business is in the midst of a renaissance, one of the fastest growth periods we've ever seen. I don't know a financial adviser in America that I talk to, and I know almost all of them that's not busier than they've ever been. So I think it's a pretty good time to declare victory for the human financial adviser, financial planner, wealth manager, whatever you want to call them. And I think it's pretty obvious at this point that the future is delivering advice humans with digital tools giving clients the best possible experience on both sides of the coin. It was never going to be one or the other and that's not the way it played out.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's kick it on the desk. I mean, Charles Schwab said last week it's discontinuing its subscription based hybrid Robo Advisor, joining jpm, UBS and US bank and pulling back from such services. I'm wondering what you make of this.

[Jenny Harrington]

Well, I'd love it to be true. I'd love Josh to be right, that the war is over. But Josh, I wonder, I wonder if it's way too early to actually call victory on this because we're in such incredibly early innings with generative AI that, well, there everyone's throwing in the towel on this version, which I'm like, fair enough on this version. What if in a year, two years, five years, the generative AI actually is really amazing and really can start to replace the humans? I'm not so sure that it's a permanent victory that you can call right now.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, rich people don't talk to robots. Jenny, you know this better than anyone. I know you.

[Jenny Harrington]

I know a good point. I would say a very good point, Josh, which is, and this always makes me sad, it always makes me sad that we can't serve the same way that we serve someone with $2 million. We can't serve all the people with 20,000. And the people with 20,000 and 150,000 frankly, need that relationship more. But there's an efficiency.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, let me stop you. Right, so I agree with what you're saying. So. So let me just jump in. It's untrue. I agree with what you're saying. It's a shame that the wealth management industry is so heavily focused on billionaires and center millionaires and deca millionaires. The reality is I have 4,000 clients and 2,000 of them have less than $1 million. And we're using digital tools very much, very much like the ones that the robos came to town with. And I think the great thing about what wealth front and what betterment and now Schwab Vanguard, I think the great thing that they've done, they found a hole in the market and they came with a solution. So that the mass affluent would not be abused by the insurance business, by independent broker dealers, by people selling them bad products. And I think the robos did a really good job at plugging that hole. The thing is, once those clients get to a higher level of sophistication and complexity and more emotional need, it's only a matter of time before they say, okay, this has been great. Automated allocation, this has worked. Low cost, great, I need to talk to somebody. We've seen it pretty much every day over the last 13 years since I founded my firm.

[Scott Wapner]

Joe.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I mean, that's, that's the bullet point. How do you manage the emotion? How do you manage the emotion in a period like we were in April, how do you generative AI, understand when life circumstances may change, something goes on in someone's life and there's a need or there needs to be a repositioning in capital. So ultimately it comes back to thought leadership is the most important thing. And I think generative AI will distribute thought leadership. The problem will be ultimately that, that thought leadership will be collectively all pointing the masses in one direction. And at that point, I think it defeats the purpose, maybe.

[Jenny Harrington]

I think that we don't know enough yet to be sure that that's going to be the case. I think from what I've seen and the rapid improvement in AI's ability to actually not just point every person in the same direction and actually understand them. And we're such a. To me, I'm like, if we need to play the game of innings, like, I don't even think we're at the first batter, the second. Jenny.

[Josh Brown]

They launched. They launched.

[Jenny Harrington]

It's too early.

[Josh Brown]

They launched TurboTax 30 years ago and there were newspaper articles calling for the end of accountants. Do you know, 30 years later we have an accounting shortage? There are not enough people that are willing to do the profession.

[Jenny Harrington]

And also when is it.

[Josh Brown]

What is it?

[Jenny Harrington]

When is it not wildly successful? So you can have both. So I don't think it's just the death of it yet. I think there's more.

[Josh Brown]

The primary users of TurboTax, accountants and individuals too.

[Jenny Harrington]

I just don't think it's one or the other.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll leave it there. To be continued, that's for sure. Santol is next.

[Stephanie Link]

We're back.

[Scott Wapner]

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with his midday words. The market a little perplexed, you think, on how to deal with the GDP print in the greater context of rate cuts and New Year and everything else.

[J]

There's definitely a little Hesitation. I think that maybe the message is not being taken in a harsh way. Mostly because it's very stale data and it's noisy. Now if the bond market wasn't going to get alarmed about it, it really isn't just a little bit uptick in yields in the two year. I don't think the stock market would but you know, the majority of stocks are down today. It's not really that clean a rally. It's basically, you know, it's funny Freeport macaron and Nvidia leading. It shows you it's reflation and AI markets free to flow vote. And I think we're going to reserve judgment as to what the trend is. And I think if you want to look at the 9 month GDP it looks more steady and smoothed out. You probably have a stutter step in the fourth quarter. You have the shutdown. So it's going to be a while before you have authoritative numbers on the trajectory of the economy. Meantime, the market's happy to just sort of position for a reacceleration. One other element today definitely seems like this is when you want to get get your tax law selling done. The 50 worst performing S&P 500 stocks today, 5 up, 45 down last time I looked. So it's essentially a little noisy below the surface but I think it's kind of mechanical.

[Scott Wapner]

Love hugging that 6900 number today. Right.

[J]

You know, tag it and see if the ceiling breaks. And we first got there October 28th, I think.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. All right, we'll see.

[J]

Basis.

[Scott Wapner]

I'll see you in a couple of hours again on that closing bell. That's Mike Santolia next. Jenny's going to give her top dividend plays for the new year. Don't miss it next. Welcome back. We're hunting for yield with Jenny Harrington. Her top dividend plays for the new year. Okay, you have four for our viewers. Let's go through them.

[Jenny Harrington]

Okay. I tried to do it like a Christmas present. So I'm giving you a wide variety. A reit, a material, an energy and a healthy care stock. We've got amcor, Bristol Myers, Enbridge and Vici. Most of them have about a 6% yield other than Bristol Myers which is about 4 and a half percent. They're all in that kind of 10 times earnings range. They all have decent earnings growth ahead. Bristol's earnings growth is further out. But in the meantime Bristol is a huge cash cow and they all have something. I think, you know, out of the 33 or 34 stocks in our portfolio, the reason I chose these is because they should give you a nice, safe way to. To have dividend income next year no matter what the market does. So Amcor, for example, Amcor had a huge merger with Barry, their biggest competitor. And as that integration happens, they've got 13% earnings growth ahead next year, 11% after that. It's a dividend aristocrat. Completely unappreciated. Bristol, I think with the way we've been seeing the health care conversation go and the drug stock pricing, there's finally some appreciation. Those stocks have all been under a cloud, and it looks like at least there's some clarity coming. So Bristol should be a beneficiary there. Enbridge, a huge pipeline company. They've got about 40,000 miles of oil and gas pipeline in Canada and North America. If we think the data center play continues and there's unfettered demand for energy, you want to be in both oil and gas. I don't want to play the cycle on oil and gas prices. I just want to know that you. If. If it's moving, I'm collecting income there. And lastly, Vichy Vici is a pretty cool company. So they own, like, mostly casinos. They have some bowling alleys, too. But think of it as casinos. And their tenants are. Things are companies like MGM and Caesars. So they have 100% occupancy. During the pandemic, when almost every REIT out there had some occupancy issue, they maintained 100% occupancy. That should continue into the future. It's on sale right now. Now it's down almost 10% from its high a few months ago because people are saying, like, ooh, Vegas. Vegas isn't doing well. International travel, that doesn't matter. Caesars isn't saying, suddenly we're going to stop leasing major casinos from you. Yeah, those are super long term. It's a triple net lease.

[Scott Wapner]

You got a question for you? Yeah, I got a question for you.

[Jenny Harrington]

Bring it.

[Scott Wapner]

Where's the disconnect then? I mean, if they're so heavily, you know, levered to casinos, pull up, win. Yeah, Year to date.

[Joe Terranova]

Oh, but Las Vegas Sands.

[Jenny Harrington]

But those lvn, those are not triple net lease REIT companies.

[Scott Wapner]

But I mean, you. You said as part of your thesis that why the stock hasn't done well. Oh, oh, Vegas, this stock, the stock's up 45% year to date. I think, you know, stocks have done great.

[Jenny Harrington]

Okay, but I'm just saying you can buy it now. It's 10% off its high.

[Scott Wapner]

No, but why is it down I.

[Jenny Harrington]

Don'T, I think it's silly. I think because there's been conversation about weakness in Vegas. Oh, and then there also maybe a little bit of the stock had run up into that because there was the thought that there was going to be a gaming license in New York City. That didn't happen. So it backed off after that. But the bottom line is you get something with a 6.4% yield, 100% occupancy, one of the hands down best management teams. And this is our job.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, but this chart's just strange to me, the comparison. That's why I ask you the question. If there was a negative feeling on Vegas when and some of these others. Now I know Macao is part of it.

[Jenny Harrington]

Obviously if we're getting that granular, maybe it's more than you are.

[Scott Wapner]

You, you mentioned that.

[Jenny Harrington]

Because don't you hear that, don't you hear people talking about Vegas? Volumes are down. I thought you don't. I do. Everywhere I turn, Vegas is down. International travelers are not so great. And maybe this is more in, in the like stock picker side side of this. I was even at a conference over the summer where someone, I can't remember where it was from, I may be Bernstein or somewhere use this stock as their, as their top idea at this conference. And a huge part of that conversation was, hey, there's concern over Vegas. Take a step back and understand that these are super long term 20 plus year leases with, with. Okay. With high, you know, with high grade tenants. You don't need to worry about, about that rent roll.

[Scott Wapner]

You just got rid of it. You're in your rebound.

[Joe Terranova]

We sold it.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, you would have had to.

[Joe Terranova]

I mean we sold it at the end of October.

[Scott Wapner]

Three months down 13%. Six months down 15. I'm not like calling out a stock.

[Jenny Harrington]

Pick, just saying why versus Vegas.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, it's just peculiar to me that this one is so levered to Vegas. And the Vegas stocks have done great. This one's done.

[Jenny Harrington]

It's chatter garbage. And maybe it's more in New York. I thought it was more Vegas. If you're saying it that way, maybe there's more New York in it, which was the New York gaming license. And maybe it had run up a little bit. But I think every time I tell someone, oh, I bought Vici, here's why, they say, oh, but aren't you worried about Las Vegas? And I say no. So that's why I put that out there first. I wasn't doing it as a comparison.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I understand. What do you think of some of these other picks?

[Joe Terranova]

Some of the other picks. Bristol. Yeah, Bristol's good. I don't know if Jenny looks at Merck. Merck to me looks like.

[Jenny Harrington]

Right.

[Joe Terranova]

It's breaking out currently. I like some of the yield, you.

[Jenny Harrington]

Know, on Merck, like three and a half percent.

[Joe Terranova]

Three and a half percent.

[Jenny Harrington]

Okay.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you pick Bristol over something like that? Because the has a higher yield.

[Jenny Harrington]

I bought Bristol, I bought Bristol a year and a half ago at $47 when the yield was over 5%. So that's, that's where I put my money at that point. By the way, Merck was a lot higher. Merck at that point probably had about.

[Stephanie Link]

They could have do another deal like Celgene which was really not a successful.

[Jenny Harrington]

I mean here's the thing on Bristol, their cash flow is bananas. So I don't know if they'll get it right but they can certainly buy their way to growth over the next three or four years, maybe 10 years. The cash is unbelievable.

[Scott Wapner]

If we bring things full circle from the top of the show where we were discussing the idea of higher rates for longer, is that an impact then on dividend paying stock? And if you say well we did just shy. The Dvy did just shy of 10% this year, here we're having a conversation about the prospect of higher rates. That's bad for dividend paying stocks, is it?

[Jenny Harrington]

Take it two ways. So Josh made a very good point earlier which is let's say the 10 year ultimately plateaus in that 3, 3 and a half, 4% range. When I started managing this portfolio back in 2001, the 10 year treasury was 5%. So if you need income and, and you need that income to keep up with gdp, dividends are still better. So if you're for the strategy that I manage, for example, my goal is to have a 5% or better dividend yield. That dividend yield historically has grown at about 5 and a half percent. Coincidentally the S&P's dividend yield also dividend income also grows at 5 and a half percent. So if you need income and the 3% on treasuries isn't enough and you need that income income to grow, then it's still favorable where it gets tricky. And this goes back to Torsten saying plan accordingly is when I'm researching a company like Amcor, one of the hardest things to do now is, is to look at their debt portfolio and say they have a lot of maturities in 2027. Where are those going to reprice? And if I don't think rates are going back to 1%. How much is that going to impact their interest, expense and earnings? That's where it gets hard.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, good stuff. Give me a final trade while I have you. Real quick, please.

[Jenny Harrington]

Oh, boy. Okay, okay. I'll give you Milrose Properties, which leads into Steph's housing plate. 9% yield. Excellent company, Josh.

[Josh Brown]

Final ExxonMobil breaking out Steph.

[Stephanie Link]

I like the India ETF I N.

[Joe Terranova]

D A semis, Nvidia, Broadcom, all of them going higher.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so I'll see at 3. We got Adam Parker, Ed Yardeni, Cameron Dawson, Bryn talking to Kevin Simpson's got some new moves, too. And we'll certainly game out 2026. I'll see in a couple of hours. On the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Julia Boorstin]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer what made.

[Jenny Harrington]

You confident that you could do something.

[Stephanie Link]

That hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.

[Julia Boorstin]

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

[Stephanie Link]

One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Julia Boorstin]

Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.