CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Strong GDP and Stocks
Date: December 23, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Josh Brown

Episode Overview

The panel analyzes a surprisingly strong GDP report and discusses its implications for markets as investors look to 2026. Central to the debate: Will persistent economic strength and higher-than-expected rates force a rethink on portfolios, and is the era of rate cuts postponed? The investment committee weighs the risks of a hawkish Fed, sector leadership, and whether the rally can broaden beyond mega-cap tech. Segments also touch on housing, financials, dividend stocks, and the enduring value of human investment advisors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Strong GDP Print and Market Reactions

• [00:57] The US GDP came in at 4.3%, the highest reading since Q3 2023.
• Scott Wapner highlights market confusion, as decent economic data coexists with questions about rates and Fed direction.
  • “Front and center this hour: what the much better than expected GDP report means for stocks in the new year.”
• Josh Brown sees higher global rates as “the new normal.”
  • “Absent a financial crisis or another pandemic, there’s no reason for investors to believe that we’re going to run right back down to 0% interest rates...there is this possibility that intermediate longer term rates look something more like 3%, 4% than 0% to 1%.” [03:35]

2. Rates, Inflation, and Fed Outlook

• Debate on whether investors are prepared for rates to stay elevated.
• Stephanie Link: Celebrates strong GDP, especially consumer resilience. Predicts S&P earnings growth in "the low teens to mid-teens next year given the momentum that we have." [05:17]
• Joe Terranova: Stresses the importance of bond market volatility over absolute yields.
  • “If you’re sharing with me that in 2026 it’s going to be...a very wide range for US ten-year treasury, that’s problematic...” [07:09]

3. Equity Market Context for 2026

• Panel discusses how different sectors could fare:
  • Joe Terranova: “In this scenario you probably want to own the Mag 7, you want to stay high up in quality...financial services.”
  • Jenny Harrington: Suggests trimming risk given market’s 17% YTD gains and bear market risk in 1H 2026. [09:26]

4. Sector Deep Dive

• Housing

  • Stephanie Link likes housing for the long term but admits better revenues need lower rates. Constructive on homebuilders like D.R. Horton, citing pent-up demand. [10:40]
  • Jenny Harrington: Argues buyers need to adapt to 6%+ mortgage rates—waiting for 5% may be futile. [12:28]

• Financials

  • Josh Brown: “Bank stock investors are not necessarily rooting for cuts and cuts and cuts. These banks make a lot of money with where rates are right now.” [14:06]
  • Performance is more about stable rates and earnings growth than actual number of rate cuts.

• Tech vs. Broadening Trade

  • Scott Wapner: Raises Goldman Sachs note questioning whether earnings outperformance can broaden beyond tech.
  • Jenny Harrington: “It really is about where those expectations are. How easy is it going to be to beat?” [17:05]
  • Stephanie Link: Reiterates that “technology, absolutely, you have very strong earnings potential and amazing free cash flow. That is not going to change...But that said, I do think you’re going to see a lot of great earnings story from financials.” [18:09-19:57]
  • Stock picking within sectors like industrials and financials becomes more important—broadening doesn’t mean equal wins for all.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown on rates reality:
  “There’s no reason for investors to believe that we’re going to run right back down to 0% interest rates... intermediate longer term rates look something more like 3%, 4%.” [03:35]

• Stephanie Link:
  “The consumer was supposedly dead, Scott. They’re not dead.” [05:17]

• Jenny Harrington:
  “If Tom’s right, you know what you do with that? You take a little risk off the table. This doesn’t mean get bearish, but maybe you take a little risk off.” [09:26]

• Joe Terranova:
  “The market can go higher with an elevated U.S. ten-year.” [07:02]

• Josh Brown on human advisors vs. robo:
  “The war is over. Human advisors won.” [33:46]
  “It was never going to be one or the other and that’s not how it played out.” [35:35]

Important Segment Timestamps

• GDP & Rates Discussion: [00:57] – [07:00]
• Sector Strategies for 2026: [07:00] – [15:54]
• Tech vs. Broadening Market: [15:54] – [21:47]
• Calls of the Day: [27:15] – [31:21]
• Man vs. Machine (Human vs. Robo Advisors): [33:36] – [39:53]
• Dividend Picks for 2026 (Top Dividend Plays): [42:10] – [49:04]
• Final Trades/Wrap-up: [49:04] – [49:23]

Stock & Sector Calls of the Day

• First Solar (Joe): Top pick at Mizuho, down 6% today—needs to “prove itself innocent.” [27:22]
• Live Nation (Josh): “Crown jewel” to play the secular trend of live concerts. [28:09]
• Estee Lauder (Stephanie): Likes the turnaround story into 2026. [28:37]
• Amtech (Joe): “Right place as it relates to electrical equipment and supplies.” [29:42]
• FedEx (Josh): Turnaround play with coming freight division spinoff. [30:36]

Dividend & Yield Strategy

Jenny Harrington's Top 2026 Picks (with rationale):

• Amcor: Post-merger, expected 13% earnings growth. Dividend aristocrat.
• Bristol Myers: Yield ~4.5%. “Huge cash cow.” Benefits from improved health sector clarity.
• Enbridge: 40,000-mile pipeline network. Attractive for energy demand, 6%+ yield.
• Vici Properties: Casino REIT, “100% occupancy even during the pandemic.” Currently on sale, but misunderstood due to Vegas noise.
  • “They have 100% occupancy. During the pandemic, when almost every REIT out there had some occupancy issue, they maintained 100% occupancy.” [42:47]

The Human vs. Robo Advisor Debate

• Josh Brown: Declares victory for human financial advisors after Wealthfront’s subdued IPO.
  • “Rich people don’t talk to robots, Jenny.” [36:42]
• Jenny Harrington/Panel: Note that AI’s role may still evolve but emotional advice is hard to automate.
• Joe Terranova: “How do you manage the emotion...when life circumstances may change?” [38:23]
• Ongoing need for human touch, especially during emotional and complex financial events.

Closing Notes

• Market participants see the need to plan for a world in which “higher for longer” rates are not a surprise.
• Stock picking and sector leadership are paramount going into an uncertain 2026.
• Panelists agree that while tech remains a dependable earnings driver, opportunities exist in industrials, financials, and selected yield plays—emphasizing that performance will likely require selectivity rather than sector-wide bets.

Final Trades

• Milrose Properties (Jenny): 9% yield, ties into housing theme.
• ExxonMobil (Josh): “Breaking out.”
• India ETF - INDA (Steph): Positive on the India story.
• Semis: Nvidia, Broadcom (Joe): “All going higher.” [49:19]

For listeners and investors, the episode offers an in-depth market pulse, practical positioning ideas for 2026, and highlights the necessary shift from sector allocation to selective stock picking in an environment of persistent growth and sticky rates.