Halftime Report Summary: "Tech Pullback Stirs Market Fears" (8/20/25)
Podcast: Halftime Report — CNBC
Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Guests: Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, Bryn Talkington
Main Theme:
The episode dives into concerns over a pullback in tech and momentum stocks, investor nervousness ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting, and strategic moves in leading names as the market digests recent profits, shifting sentiment, and macroeconomic signals.
Episode Overview
The Halftime investment committee weighs the implications of the recent tech and momentum stock pullback, discussing whether this signals the start of a broader correction or simply market exhaustion after significant gains. Key drivers include profit-taking, looming uncertainty around Fed policy at Jackson Hole, and underlying economic data on inflation and growth. Actionable moves across tech (Apple, Salesforce, Dell), retail (TJX, Target, Walmart), and crypto-linked stocks are debated, all set against the backdrop of seasonality and shifting market leadership.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Sentiment: Is This Just Profit Taking or a Deeper Pullback?
[01:03–04:10]
- Frank Holland opens by addressing the pressure on AI and tech “high flyers.”
- Joe Terranova challenges the idea that the market is only profit-taking:
“People don't take profits when they think the market's going to keep going up.” (01:33)
- Catalysts for this shift include the looming Jackson Hole speech, with expectations now misaligned with market hopes for substantial rate cuts.
Momentum “Exhaustion”:
- Joe details how names like Palantir peaked mid-August, marking a broader exhaustion in momentum trades.
- ETF rebalancing saw fresh exposure to software (Datadog, Microsoft) and crypto names (Coinbase, Block), which have sharply underperformed since entry.
- Describes it as “a false breakout. What that really represents is exhaustion in the marketplace.” (03:41)
2. Jackson Hole and the “Reluctant Cut” Debate
[04:10–11:44]
- Frank references Evercore’s Julian Emanuel, who warns of a possible 7–15% pullback if Powell is neutral or hawkish.
- Carrie Firestone stresses that Powell must remain data-driven, with mixed inflation and jobs numbers constraining a dovish stance.
"I don't think we're going to see a very dovish Jay Powell. So that's just a fact... Sure, it's time to take some profits." (04:40)
- All panelists agree the market is front-running a hawkish or, at best, neutral Fed, anticipating a modest pullback, but not a crash.
Seasonality & CPI/PPI Debate:
[06:35–09:31]
- Bryn Talkington points out that September is historically weak (“worst month for the S&P”), adding that tariffs distort PPI more than CPI and will complicate Powell’s path.
- CPI looked better but didn't capture all tariff effects; PPI does, leading Bryn to expect continued hawkishness.
"Powell has this juxtaposition of PPI showing tariffs impact. The CPI doesn't." (08:42)
3. Portfolio Strategies Amid Uncertainty
[11:44–14:26]
- Joe notes minimal spike in volatility indices, doubting a major correction is underway.
“It’s very arguably pretty, pretty cheap insurance... I just don't agree there's evidence of a 15% correction unfolding." (11:44)
- Some investors are buying downside protection via put options, especially on tech-heavy indices, but the panel questions the wisdom of this tactic.
- Carrie maintains you must own “the leaders”—mega-cap tech—even when taking profits elsewhere:
"If you don't own them, you're taking a big risk... That's where we continue to see the stocks come back and the earnings also come back strong." (13:45)
4. Trading Tech Giants: Apple & Nvidia
[14:26–18:34]
-
Apple:
- Joe details trading Apple, riding the upside but cutting position at signs of exhaustion (“ring the register, take a little profit, reduce the size.” (14:52))
- Carrie offers a technical view: “2:10 is where the 100 day moving average is. So I would say that's where you reenter.” (17:20)
- Bryn echoes: Likes adding near $210–$215, praises Apple’s “incremental” improvements, particularly upcoming consumer AI features.
-
Nvidia:
- Broad trader consensus is to "hold steady" before earnings, expecting “beat and raise,” but wary of whether the stock can keep rallying.
5. Salesforce, Dell & Rotating Positions
[19:44–22:23]
- Bryn trims Dell after a sharp run and reallocates into Salesforce, citing underestimated AI tailwinds and the Informatica acquisition:
“Salesforce is using AI. Their acquisition of Informatica... is going to be great... This is an unloved space stock... It can easily trade up 15 to 20% after earnings.” (20:23)
- Dell remains on Bryn’s watchlist to rebuy on pullbacks.
Adobe vs. Figma/Rivals:
- Both Bryn and Carrie see headwinds for Adobe due to growing competition (Canva, Figma) and lack of stickiness compared to Salesforce’s CRM moat.
6. Financial Sector Moves
[25:03–26:57]
- Joe diversifies proceeds from Apple into Broadridge, CBOE, and Tradeweb, pointing to structural growth in financial infrastructure and electronic trading platforms:
“Strong engagement in the financial services industry... CBOE—strong volumes. Broadridge—asset management tech. Tradeweb—has perfected fixed income electronic trading.” (25:15)
7. Retail: TJX, Target, Walmart
[29:32–35:09]
- TJX shines after earnings; Joe calls off-price retail the “sweet spot”:
“TJX perfects off-price retail better than anyone else... evidenced in margins.” (30:07)
- Target struggles on sales, management change. Bryn attributes issues to pricing and weak differentiation, sees Walmart as a net beneficiary.
- Carrie warns that when consumer stocks like Target “fall from grace, that can take years before it can turn around.” (33:06)
- Walmart’s premium valuation is justified by its execution, but Amazon’s push into groceries is flagged as a looming threat.
8. Crypto & ETFs
[39:27–43:25]
- Dave Nadig (ETF Analyst) highlights the explosion of active ETFs and investors’ desire for differentiated products.
- Regulatory clarity (Genius Act) is accelerating crypto ETF adoption; however, altcoin and staking-based products still face pauses by the SEC.
“This allows institutions to buy these securities in the market. It's just hypercharges the adoption of crypto.” (42:46 — Bryn)
- Joe candidly notes their ETF has exposure to Robinhood, Coinbase, and PayPal, but fundamental enthusiasm is still pending.
9. Notable Quotes & Moments
- Joe Terranova: “What that really represents is exhaustion in the marketplace. And that puts you where you are today, where you have this exhaustion element that's leading to a modest correction in the market...” (03:41)
- Carrie Firestone: “It's time to take some profits. That's not profits of a little bit, it's profits like 80%, 90%, 100% in some names...” (04:40)
- Bryn Talkington: “Gravity is once again... you can't have a Palantir or these types of companies just going at this huge angle upward way over there...” (06:35)
- Mike Santoli (midday word): “The action is very erratic... things are getting a little bit crowded, maybe a little bit frothy... For now this is localized in high growth mega cap momentum.” (37:58)
10. Timestamps — Important Segments
| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:03 | Show open, tech/momentum pullback framed | | 01:59 | Joe Terranova on market sentiment and catalysts | | 04:10 | Jackson Hole’s significance; Evercore note on Powell’s impact | | 06:35 | CPI, PPI, and tariffs as drivers; Bryn’s macro take | | 11:44 | Options, volatility, and correction probabilities | | 14:26 | Trading major tech (Apple, Nvidia) amid volatility | | 19:44 | Salesforce bull case vs. Dell trimming; software rotation | | 25:03 | Financials: new positions in Broadridge, CBOE, Tradeweb | | 29:32 | Retail divergence: TJX vs. Target; Walmart threats/opportunities | | 39:27 | Crypto ETFs, regulation, and active investing trends | | 46:25 | Final trades: Salesforce (Bryn), American Express (Carrie), TJX (Joe) |
Final Trades
- Bryn Talkington: Salesforce (CRM) — “AI is going to make this company stickier and stickier.” (46:25)
- Carrie Firestone: American Express (AXP) — “Inflection point, below the market multiple.” (46:33)
- Joe Terranova: TJX — “Going towards yesterday's high gets into yesterday's range, I think you want to buy it.” (46:46)
Overall Tone & Takeaway
The panelists maintain a pragmatic, even slightly bullish tone despite near-term weakness, rooted in the belief that pullbacks are modest and healthy after outsized gains. The recurring theme is “exhaustion,” not panic. There is a clear preference to use weakness to upgrade portfolios, stay diversified, and continue to own market leaders—particularly mega-cap tech and select retail/financials—while remaining vigilant for opportunities in overlooked names (e.g., Salesforce) and growing asset classes (crypto via ETFs).
For listeners and investors, the message is clear:
Stay alert, take profits where justified, but don’t overreact to volatility—look for chances to add to high-confidence holdings and monitor evolving Fed, inflation, and geopolitical narratives.