Tech's Tumultuous Week 11/7/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report – "Tech's Tumultuous Week"

Airdate: November 7, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Josh Brown
Special Reporting: Sima Modi, Phil LeBeau

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Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives deep into a wild week for technology stocks, exploring the drivers of the tech sell-off, the debate over massive AI-related spending, escalating corporate debt, and the broader implications for markets. The team also examines fallout in crypto, airline operations amid a government shutdown, best stock ideas outside Big Tech, and sector-specific turbulence in restaurants and beyond.

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Theme 1: The Tech Pullback—Bubble Talk or a Healthy Correction?

Key Market Movements

• Nasdaq down over 450 points (2% decline) during showtime ([01:00]).
• Multiple big names (Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Palantir) down in consecutive sessions ([03:00]).
• Meta down 24% from its recent high, Nvidia 15%, Microsoft 11%.

Discussion Highlights

What's Driving the Sell-Off?

• "There's no one answer... you’ve continued to hear the narrative increase, that tech's in a bubble, that valuation exceeds what's reasonable."
  — Jim Leventhal [01:50]
• Investors flee rapidly as worries turn self-fulfilling.

Is Meta the Canary in the AI Coal Mine?

• "Meta represents the first sign that there actually are consequences in terms of stock price for overspending on capex without having a coherent strategy that investors can understand or believe in."
  — Josh Brown [03:42]
• Meta's AI investments are questioned; uncertainty over strategies like Llama (Meta’s open source AI) prompts investor doubt.

Bubble, Or Just a Needed Pullback?

• "Anyone saying a bubble, well in a bubble you don't have some of the most important companies in the theme in 24% drawdowns."
  — Josh Brown [05:34]
• "I think sometimes markets themselves can become self-fulfilling prophecies and it's almost like you sell first and ask questions later."
  — Kevin Simpson [07:10]

Spending: Risk or Justified?

• Huge CapEx numbers:
  • Amazon: $125B, Meta $70–72B, Alphabet $91–93B, Microsoft $35B in Q1 ([08:21])
• "UBS... talks about elevated valuations triggering the volatility and the return of it... But that the fundamentals... they’re justified."
  — Scott Wapner [08:21]
• "The fundamentals support a continued rally... what I think is happening... is liquidity is drying up. And I believe... this is a result of the government shutdown..."
  — Steve Weiss [09:04]

Contrasting Views on Causes

• Weiss attributes short-term pressure to liquidity effects of the government shutdown, not fundamental cracks. Leventhal pushes back, calling that "an overly simplistic approach" ([12:13]).

Key Quotes

• "Meta took out what, 30 billion? Oracle took out 30 billion. 60 billion. Yeah."
  — Steve Weiss [14:35]
• "The coverage ratios on what these companies are buying from their cash flow is insane."
  — Jim Leventhal [16:01]

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Theme 2: AI Megacap Spending & Rising Debt: Good or Alarm Signal?

Debt Issuance & Spreads

• Oracle, Meta, Alphabet have all recently issued large chunks of debt to fund AI and cloud buildouts.
• "Debt financing is good, particularly when it's collateralized by hard assets such as data centers so that you can get a lower interest rate."
  — Steve Weiss [18:50]
• Sima Modi reports Oracle’s $38B debt deal, with key questions on margins and sustainability ([17:11]).
• Spreads on "hyperscaler" bonds are widening but not at panic levels, flagged as a "watch out metric" by BofA ([15:01]).

Are These Risks Manageable?

• "Let me not make the claim that there is no risk to taking out debt... but they're financing vendors to build assets right now that are productive..."
  — Steve Weiss [20:14]
• "It's not really what equity investors are saying... it's what the credit investors, what the debt investors are saying. When they get worried, that's when you should get worried. But, you know, they're not worried."
  — Jim Leventhal [21:03]

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Theme 3: Crypto & Risk Appetite

Connecting Tech & Crypto Pullbacks

• Bitcoin down 8.5% for the week amid Nasdaq weakness ([21:11], [21:58]).
• "When it stops rising... the momentum crowd moves on... We financialized this asset... It is now the purview of asset flows coming into places like Blackrock."
  — Josh Brown [21:58]
• "A lot of the bull case for Bitcoin was... to be able to have this thing that people could transact in, that's not the US Dollar... stablecoins have become way too successful..."
  — Josh Brown [22:42]

Pure Momentum vs. Fundamental Case

• "It's a risk-off trade... I still haven't seen, you know, basically a use case that's valid. And it's still, you know, there's no way to assess the tangible value on it."
  — Jim Leventhal [23:51]
• Leventhal admits a (cynical) momentum play, mentioning "Trump’s family allegedly has $7 billion in bitcoin"—implying political motives may drive the price ([24:43]).

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Theme 4: Airline Chaos & Shutdown Fallout

Operational Impact

• Hundreds of flights canceled due to the ongoing US government shutdown, escalating from 4% to 10% of flights being preemptively cut over the coming week ([27:32]).

Airline Industry Perspective

• "When you cancel a flight today, right, they don't just simply pick up where they left off. They have to be totally rearranged."
  — Robert Isom, American Airlines CEO via Phil LeBeau [28:41]
• Investors expect supply cuts will lead to higher prices, preserving airline profitability despite overall pain for travelers ([31:04]).

Notable Quotes

• "What happens when you reduce supply, you increase price. Not saying that the airlines are going to recover everything from the lost flights, but they're going to recover a lot of it with price and that's going to stink for consumers..."
  — Steve Weiss [30:27]

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Theme 5: Best Stocks in the Market—Diversifying Away from Tech

Josh Brown’s Picks

• Welltower (WELL): Senior housing REIT benefiting from aging demographics.
  • "Buy it, add to it slowly... could continue to lead in the healthcare REIT space." ([35:30])
• Ventas (VTR): Similar thesis; well-run, “growth as far as the eye can see.”
• Robinhood (HOOD): Despite volatility, up 232% YTD, and viewed as an opportunity after post-earnings pullback ([37:29]).

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Theme 6: Portfolio Moves & Sector Analysis

Kevin Simpson’s Trades ([39:00])

• Bought: Marathon Petroleum (MPC): Value, dividend growth, defensive.
• Sold: Procter & Gamble (PG): “Consumer Staples have been incredibly out of favor... I envision this continuing to drift down.”
• Sold: Solstice Advanced Materials (Honeywell spinoff): Not following, prefers core Honeywell aerospace and industrial.

Restaurant Stock Woes

• Kava -11%, Shake Shack -4.5%, Chipotle -4%, Sweetgreen taken a hit.
• "There's really no such thing as, quote, the consumer. We have all different tiers of consumers... companies that are operating and executing, and companies that aren’t."
  — Josh Brown [41:46]

DoorDash & DraftKings Falls

• "We saw those earnings as just horrific... we liquidated the entire position in our growth strategy."
  — Kevin Simpson on DoorDash [43:16]
• DraftKings under pressure from new competition in sports betting apps and prediction markets ([43:53]).

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Final Trades Roundtable ([45:13])

• Josh Brown:
  • Joby Aviation, optimistic heading into Dubai Air Show
• Kevin Simpson:
  • Marathon Petroleum: "Record free cash flow, increasing dividends and record share buybacks."
• Steve Weiss:
  • ExxonMobil: "Done very well despite crude oil down 20% YTD... recent momentum will continue."
• Jim Leventhal:
  • Meta: “This is a permanent compounder, a term I often use, and I like it right here.”

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "In a bubble you don't have some of the most important companies in the theme in 24% drawdowns."
  — Josh Brown [05:34]
• "Debt financing is great until it isn't."
  — Scott Wapner [19:31]
• "The lesson is when the math changes, when the data changes, don’t fall in love with the stock."
  — Kevin Simpson [43:16]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:00] — Tech selloff and market overview
• [03:42] — Meta as the AI capex cautionary tale
• [08:21] — Mega-cap CapEx numbers and fundamental vs. liquidity debate
• [14:35] — Magnitude of tech borrowing for AI expansion
• [17:11] — Sima Modi on Oracle’s debt-fueled AI buildout
• [21:58] — Bitcoin drops in sync with Nasdaq; commentary on crypto’s evolution
• [27:32] — Phil LeBeau reports on airlines canceling flights due to shutdown
• [35:30] — Josh Brown’s “best stocks” picks: Welltower, Ventas, Robinhood
• [39:00] — Kevin Simpson’s buys/sells: Marathon Petroleum, Procter & Gamble, Solstice Materials
• [41:46] — Restaurant stock rout; consumer spending debate
• [43:16] — DoorDash disappointment: Kevin Simpson exits position
• [45:13] — Final trade picks

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Tone & Atmosphere

The conversation is lively, sometimes contentious—balancing optimism in tech fundamentals with growing caution over valuation and spending. The mood is candid but analytical, with panelists alternately challenging and supporting each other, reflecting real-time market anxieties and investor strategy recalibrations.

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Transcript

[Steve Weiss]

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.

[Phil LeBeau]

Listen in.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the state of the air trade. After a tumultuous week for tech, we trade it with the investment committee as always. Joining me for the hour today, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson and Josh Brown. Let's check the markets where we have another sell off underway, especially in the Nasdaq. Take a look at that. It is now down more than 450 points. That equates to a 2% decline. The NASDAQ has had three 1% pullbacks in the last six. That was before today. So it's going to be four and seven. If it looks like this, it's the worst performance for a week since April 4th. That of course was the so called Liberation day period of time. What is this about? Are we sort of re questioning spend valuation? A little bit of everything.

[Jim Leventhal]

You know, obviously anybody involved in market's been thinking about it a lot. What's this about? What's causing it? Is there longevity to this decline? And where I come out is that there's no one answer. But what I would guess is that you've continued to hear the narrative increase, that tech's in a bubble, that valuation exceeds what's reasonable. And eventually, I'm not saying it's accurate in all parts, but eventually that narrative lands and when you see a little bit of volatility, people come out and say, you know what, maybe there's something to it. So they run for the doors. Now I've tried to, I haven't touched any of my positions except what we talked about before. Earnings in Alphabet definitely haven't touched Meta, haven't touched Microsoft, haven't touched Amazon. I have no intention doing so because look, I thought they were overvalued but compounders eventually grow into their valuation and you can have momentary, you know, destabilization in the, in the uptrend in these stocks but the question is, where does it end? I'm not worked up about it, but I am concerned.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, if you look at, you know, so Microsoft is looking at eight in a row in terms of down sessions. Nvidia is looking at four in a row. Metta is looking for six out of seven. And of course Palantir has been down four straight days for the first time since August. But if you pull the lens back a little bit further, you'll see declines from their most recent highs. Met is down 24%, Josh, from its recent high and videos down 15, Microsoft 11. And maybe you can put Metta if you want at the start of this, right? They're the ones out of the hyperscale scalar earnings days that traded the worst and raised the most questions.

[Josh Brown]

I think, yeah, guys, why don't you give me a year to date or 1 year meta chart while I'm talking just so I can put this into context. In my opinion, Meadow represents the first sign that there actually are consequences in terms of stock price for quote unquote overspending on capex without having a coherent strategy that investors can understand or believe in. I actually think this is a very positive development to see this name in a 24% drawdown. It's now only up 3% on the year. So in other words, if the market were to close tomorrow for 2025 and we were to say what was the biggest story in the market of 2025, we would all agree the AI build out theme. Okay, great. And then someone would say surely all of the companies involved heavily in this AI buildout must have had great stock performance. And the answer would be no matter is only up 3% on the year and participated for most of the year and then fell apart. I think, I think when you think about a company that has been this successful incorporating AI into its business and we know better, is the reals product being a great example utilizing AI to make that suggestion. Engine hum brings in more certainty on the part of advertisers and a higher yield per dollar spent. That's a great thing. But then people look at some of the other things that they're Talking about doing and five restructurings of the AI team in a year's time and questions about what even is super intelligence and can this company continue to make multibillion dollar acquisitions of startups just to attain talent. And they say to themselves, you know what, I have a much better sense of what Gemini is doing. I have a better understanding of what Open Air is doing. I think I kind of get the Amazon strategy. I don't understand met his open source llama strategy at all and they hit the sell button again. Not necessarily the death knell for, for Metta, not necessarily the end of the rally in AI but I think it's really healthy that investors are asking questions and reacting negatively when they don't believe in what the company is saying they're going to do. So I like it. And anyone saying a bubble, well in a bubble you don't have some of the most important companies in the theme in 24% drawdowns. So we may get to a bubble. I don't know that we've gotten there yet.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I think most would. You know certainly those who have been on the network opining on that topic over the last, let's call it, you know, three, four weeks have said yeah, we may get to that point but they don't, they don't see it yet. Even the ones who suggest this is eventually going to end badly, we're a ways off from that. Brad Gerstner, I think you could put him in the group of altimeter of course on in the last hour says we're not in a bubble, says he has taken his positions down, all of them including Metta and he called what we're witnessing healthy. Kev, you own, you own Metta. So you listen to what Josh has to say. Are we at as I think I brought up for the last couple of days an inflection point in the way investors are going to view these very, very large numbers of spend versus return on that or is this just a moment? It's just a moment that these stocks begged for a pullback of some kind and we're just in that and don't read anything more into it than to be done.

[Kevin Simpson]

I don't disagree with anything that Josh says, but I find myself in your camp, Scott. I think sometimes markets themselves can become self fulfilling prophecies and it's almost like you sell first and ask questions later. And I think that happened with Metta post earnings. Now obviously it's continued. A 24% drawdown in a really short period of time could get You a little bit nervous. We haven't sold any. If anything I think we'll be able to add to that position to kind of right size. IT being up 3% on the year is, is pauper compared to these other high high flyers within the mag seven. So we're not buying it today but I would look for weakness as an opportunity.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, that's a more concise way of what I'm saying. That's self filling prophecy that the fears took hold. Everybody saying you should be afraid, you should be afraid. Not Brad, not others that really know what they're doing, you know, will not only know what they're doing. We get Sam Altman a month ago not even say that we're in a bubble.

[Scott Wapner]

Capex. Bubble.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, I think he did say capex. Well but I'll tell you I want companies and where I sit, border companies. You want to spend, obviously you want responsible spending but you don't want to miss the growth. So I'd rather have them overspend now, not saying they are than miss what's going on.

[Scott Wapner]

Well you are spending a lot. You are, you're spending a lot. Amazon 125 billion this year matter between 70 and 72, Alphabet between 91 and 93 and Microsoft spent 35 billion in Q1. It's going to spend more in fiscal year 26 than they did this year. UBS is out with a note Jimmy, that talks about elevated valuations triggering the volatility and the return of it which we've obviously seen this week. But that the fundamentals are just, they're justified. That the fundamentals, yes you can say oh my gosh, those numbers are so big. But the fundamentals justify what they're doing. Tom Lee said too early to give up on this. By the, by the dip.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. I think the fundamentals support a continued rally in the air trade and in the markets overall. In a second I'll get to what I think is the cause of the last week or two weeks worth of declines but I just want to get it to it now because I want to set up. Why I don't think this is fundamentals is because two weeks ago we had announcements from the top four hyperscalers that they're going to spend over $400 billion this year and over 500 billion next year on AI. And that money as much as we're worried about hey so and so is taking out debt. The bulk of that is coming from operating cash flows that are growing in most cases. That to me is a healthy fundamental Picture. But what I think is happening in the markets. And Scott, you keyed in on it when you pointed out that Microsoft is down eight days in a row. When you get that sort of streak, it's not like on every single day, people up or people are waking up and saying, oh, valuations are high. Oh, maybe this is a bubble. What's happening is liquidity is drying up. And I believe quite strongly that this is a result of the government shutdown, that two things are coming from the government shutdown. One, you actually are seeing aggregate demand across the economy pull back. And how can it not? Whether this is explaining Chipotle, it will be explaining the airlines that are going to have poor numbers.

[Scott Wapner]

Can't tell me that The Nasdaq down 5% is related to the government shutdown.

[Steve Weiss]

Let me finish. I absolutely sounds like so. No, it's not absurd, because here's where it really comes home to roost. Hang on, Steve. Is that in all of this time, money is building up the treasury general account at the Fed outside of the commercial banking System, it's at $1.2 trillion. That is money that should be in the commercial banking system. It should be in bank accounts, whether it's government employees or contractors. And when it's in those bank accounts, it's in the commercial banking system. It increases liquidity overall for the financial markets. Right now we're having the opposite effect. Good news is when the shutdown ends, that headwind becomes a tailwind. But I absolutely believe that Nvidia is.

[Scott Wapner]

Down 10% this week because the shutdown.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I find that. No, no, no, I wouldn't go forward. I would find that far more believable, and it's what I believe than saying that all of a sudden we're not going to be spending on AI chips, given those numbers of hundreds of billions of dollars. By the way, that's leaving aside open AI, what I'm explaining makes far more sense to me than the idea that the fundamentals are cracking.

[Scott Wapner]

But it's not the fundamentals no one is suggesting. I think you're conflating a couple of things. Suggesting that people are getting uneasy with the spend doesn't mean that the fundamentals of these businesses or the story is cracking in any way. It's just you're thinking about, okay, you're pledging to spend these tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars on the. The prize at the end of the rainbow. Well, I mean, okay, well, maybe you want to see the results from that before you get to the end of the Rainbow and some are questioning exactly what's being spent.

[Steve Weiss]

Nobody should be questioning.

[Scott Wapner]

You could, nobody should still believe in every fundamental story.

[Steve Weiss]

Earliest a 2027 result. You know, if you're looking at the things that Open Air is building and planning to build, the results of that, whether it's for Oracle, Nvidia, anyone else is going to be felt in 2027, 2028. If somebody's sitting here saying geez, I think first quarter 26 numbers should come in because maybe open air isn't good for the money. I think that is, I don't think that's what the market's trading.

[Jim Leventhal]

You know, look, here's what I'd say. It's. It's an overly simplistic approach to say that the shutdown driving us. It's just. I think it's overly incorrect. I think Sherlock would agree with me. It just doesn't make sense. So what I'd say is that it could be contributing factories.

[Scott Wapner]

That's quite a three piece.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, yeah, you should see the cap. You were also with that. But so I'd say that, that it could be a contributing factor, but that's not it. The market is, I always hate to say the market was due for a sell off, but just the cacophony of, of the dialogue just hit such a loud level. That's what we're seeing now in terms of the spending.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah.

[Jim Leventhal]

You're not going to see Open Air suffer from maybe deformed defaults and what their plans are, but you will see in the interim cloud spending continue to increase.

[Scott Wapner]

Maybe you don't want to hear, you know, with all due respect, the Open Air people talking about and then walking back the idea of a government bailout or backstop like no, why are you talking about that?

[Jim Leventhal]

Scary. That's.

[Scott Wapner]

Why do you even have to talk.

[Jim Leventhal]

And I don't think there's anything to backstop because there's nothing that's crossing the table yet in terms of financial.

[Scott Wapner]

No, that's like how far off we raising.

[Josh Brown]

How far off its high would open IV if it were publicly traded right now? Steve or Jim, whoever.

[Jim Leventhal]

Open Air would never have the valuation does have right now because the doors.

[Josh Brown]

How far, how far off its high do you think? I think 20%.

[Jim Leventhal]

I'd say 50.

[Josh Brown]

Oh, you think it that bad? Okay.

[Jim Leventhal]

Because look at their revenues versus their valuation and that they're basically built on the credit cycle, their own credit cycle. So it could be 50, maybe 40 is a lot.

[Scott Wapner]

The revenues 13 billion with the valuation on the, the, the big two podcast are growing so exponentially large. What's the today number is not even close to what the tomorrow number is. My only point of bringing up the commentary from first Sarah Fryer, then walk back and then Sam Altman and yeah, Sachs in the, in the administration saying there aren't going to be any bailouts. It just raises. Well, why are we getting to the point where we start thinking about that? Like why are we even talking about that? Except for the fact that you look at, except for you look at the tremendous amount of, of, of debt that's being raised to fund some of the.

[Steve Weiss]

It's not tremendous. It's not tremendous. My goodness. Metta took out what, 30 billion? Oracle took out 30 billion. 60 billion. Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Alphabet was 25. Alphabet was 25 billion this week. Matter was 30 billion last week. Oracle. Oracle's $18 billion in September. Morgan Stanley expects the big firms to spend about 3 trillion on infrastructure between now and 2028. Obviously not all of that is coming from.

[Steve Weiss]

Well, you just raises 100 billion. Roughly 100 billion.

[Scott Wapner]

Well that's what you just had in the last few days. Bank of America puts a piece out today, a chart that we can throw up here. As they look at, you know, the hyperscaler spreads have widened, certainly not to alarming levels, but nonetheless it reflects the amount of debt that's being raised. They suggest is a quote unquote, watch out metric.

[Steve Weiss]

You know, hang on a second. If you look at Oracle's debt. No, come on, he was talking to me. Just hang on a second. All right Steve, just don't interrupt all time. 5 to 6% is the yield on Oracle bonds. Really? That's distressed. I mean, come on. That's not distressed. And the numbers that you're totaling, $100 billion versus whether it's 1 trillion over the next two years or 3 trillion, the number that you sent out, that you just put out. You know, the thing is, is that tech investors are not used to seeing debt generally. They're not used to seeing debt because.

[Scott Wapner]

They have like the biggest piles of cash this side of Berkshire, which is.

[Steve Weiss]

Where the other nine. That's completely noncommitting.

[Jim Leventhal]

That's complete nonsense.

[Steve Weiss]

I like when I lay a cogent thought pattern out and he says it's complete.

[Jim Leventhal]

It is because Apple's been, been a participant in the credit markets for a long time.

[Steve Weiss]

Part of the AI trade.

[Jim Leventhal]

Apple is not, let me tell you, if you're a credit investor, okay, if you're somebody watch credit markets, you're not even given a second Thought the coverage ratios on what these companies are buying from their cash flow is insane. And by the way, for the companies where I sit in the board, we want to take on some debt. You know why? Because equity is dilutive number one and number two, it helps them grow. So the return that a Metta, that an Alphabet, that a Microsoft, any of them that would get losing monstrous 80 basis point.

[Scott Wapner]

It's crazy in, in stock spreads it's a, it's a measure of the amazing balance sheets these companies have. The resiliency of the companies, the belief by investors in the story now to a point. I mean stocks have pulled back. These guys mentioned Oracle which is close to now erasing all of its September gains tied to that open air deal. Sima Modi's here and listening this whole conversation thinking about it probably in the context of what this stock itself has done.

[Sima Modi]

Stock is down another 4% today, so in fact it has erased all the gains from September. The conversation has clearly shifted from the excitement around Oracle's $300 billion deal with OpenAI, the tools it's using to build out artificial intelligence and that record cloud backlog to now the financing tools that Oracle increasingly needs to use to, to fund the build out. I can confirm that debt deal that you guys were just mentioning. It's a $38 billion debt deal that Oracle is going to the market with. Morgan Stanley says this specific deal not only reinforces the role of the credit market, but it notes that Oracle is increasingly using its credit quality to help developers and obtain construction loans at a certain rate. And if, then if you dissect the Oracle OpenAI relationship, there's over 3 gigawatts of data center capacity that are currently in the works. RBC Capital analyst Rishi Julia, he's been on spot on this stock and he did not get excited about that initial 35% surge we saw in September. He's holding on to a neutral rating. He says his concern is that OpenAI's ability to fund the five year partnership with Oracle and given the other commitments it has specifically with Azure, which was just announced last week, that $250 billion deal. So that seems to be where the conversation is right now. Financing how much more debt Oracle needs to take on December is when we get the next earnings report from Oracle. Key question will be around margins for Oracle cloud infrastructure, which initially they said 30 to 40% at their analyst.

[Scott Wapner]

Right. SEMA raises the perfect point. How much more? How much more? The levels that I wrote read to you here, they're not like fall out of the chair. Alarming. But the question is these companies are tapping the debt market rather extensively now to fund some of their ambitions. How much more? You own Oracle.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, look, I mean, this is a point I actually completely agree with what Steve said and it's something I've been trying to say over the last week or two, which is that debt financing is good, particularly when it's collateralized by hard assets such as data centers so that you can get a lower interest rate. So seem, I don't know where these. Where it's being quoted in terms of the one issue, but if we're talking 5 to 6%, Steve's exactly right. If you're sitting on the board, if you're in the C suite, you do not want to issue equity to do this. And a lot of this funding is coming from capital flows. Excuse me, from cash flows to the extent that they're building more than this, I would rather they use debt as opposed to giving up precious equity.

[Scott Wapner]

Debt financing is great until it is. I mean, as long as everything remains great, then there's no issue to even worry about. The chart that we put up in the spreads that we showed you, which are still super tight by historical standards. We're not bringing it up as a alarmist thing. It's what is being talked about on the street.

[Steve Weiss]

It's being talked about on the street and I'm addressing it. And I think I'm being pretty clear in my opinion on it, which is to say there are cash flows, positive cash flows to support the.

[Scott Wapner]

Did you have the point you want to make?

[Sima Modi]

In addition to the financing that Oracle has to take on, are you concerned about it using its credit quality, its investment grade balance sheet to help developers obtain these construction loans at a favorable rate? Isn't that an additional level of risk?

[Steve Weiss]

Let's let me not make the claim that there is no risk to taking out debt, that there's no risk to what you're suggesting about financing vendors. We saw what happened in the late 1990s, but they're financing vendors to build assets right now that are productive as opposed to what we've talked about many times on the show of the Dark Networks. I saw them digging up the streets of Lower Manhattan in 1988, 1999, literally every week to lay down fibers. You could look at this and say, how is this really not duplicative at this point in time? We're just not at that level. Not yet.

[Jim Leventhal]

Let me ask you a question. Yes, it adds an extra level of risk, but not one you should be concerned about. It's not really what equity investors are saying on this. Right. Because they're not credit investors. Right. It's what the credit investors, what the debt investors are saying. Sure.

[Josh Brown]

Right.

[Jim Leventhal]

That you should be. When they get worried, that's when you should get worried. But, you know, they're not worried. It's a non event.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll leave it there. Seema, thank you. At Sima Modi, I think there is a little bit of a fallout, too, of what's happened in the NASDAQ this week. And it's pretty clear that you could see it maybe in crypto. There's been such a tight correlation at periods of time between the NASDAQ and Bitcoin especially, but crypto has pulled back a bunch. Let's look at bitcoin. At least today it was back below 100. It's above it now, but there's a pretty volatile picture of what you have. Bitcoin's down 8.5% week to date. Fourth weekly loss out of the past five. Josh, you have a thought here? You know, there are times where they're highly correct correlated NASDAQ and Bitcoin, and there are times where that has broken down. But it appears at least today to be back in play or at least this week.

[Josh Brown]

I think the, the most recent zeitgeist that has overtaken the crypto commentary, not Wall Street's commentary on crypto, but crypto's commentary on itself, is that some of the bull case for, for this asset has been based on the fact that it's been rising and we have a lot of stocks like that, too. So this is not unique to crypto. But when it stops rising, not even falling, but just kind of takes a breather for a while, the momentum crowd moves on and they look to do something else. And I think there's some element to that. We financialized this asset. It used to be the Wild West. It's not. It is now the purview of asset flows coming into places like blackrock, and that's perfectly fine. Doesn't mean there's not future upside. But this has become more and more tradfi as the ETF providers have gotten larger as a percentage of the daily volumes, the assets under management, etc. So that's, that's sort of one thing. The other thing, I don't agree with everything Cathie Wood says, but I did agree with her comments this week where a lot of the bull case for Bitcoin was to be able to have this thing that people could transact in, that's not the US Dollar and not part of the traditional banking system. The problem is that stablecoins have become way too successful in order to believe that bitcoin will be the only way. And so now maybe there is some competition. If you wanted to actually use crypto to move money around, now you have a way to do it minus all the volatility that has become more accepted by the largest financial institution. So I thought that was an interesting comment that she made. She's still bullish on bitcoin, but there will be increased transactions happening at places like Circle, and I think it's worth paying attention to Weiss.

[Scott Wapner]

Is this just a risk barometer at the moment?

[Jim Leventhal]

I believe it is. So, you know, so I cut my IBIT position significantly because it's a risk off markets, a bit of risk off trade. And I still don't believe in. In bitcoin. I still haven't seen, you know, basically a use case that's valid. And it's still, you know, there's no way to assess the tangible value on it. You know, gold, there's tangible value. It's a lot lower than what gold is trading, but you sort of get that. And it's been trading that way for thousands of. Gold's been trading for thousands of years. Bitcoin, again, you've had all its time. You stuck.

[Scott Wapner]

At what point do you decide, though? Because if Europe, you are a pure, pure momentum player in bitcoin.

[Jim Leventhal]

Correct.

[Scott Wapner]

You've laid it out. There's undeniable. So at what point do you say, the momentum's gone? I'm done.

[Jim Leventhal]

So here's.

[Scott Wapner]

You're probably not the only momentum player out there.

[Jim Leventhal]

Right. So here's what keeps me in it. Okay. And some people may not like this, but like it is, Trump's family allegedly has $7 billion in Bitcoin. It's probably lower over this week. Like, slow with me. Trump just freed or just pardoned the head of the most influential person, and I'm following corruption, and corruption will win to a certain point, and his stake in getting bitcoin higher is very evident. So I'm following that trail, pure and.

[Scott Wapner]

Simple, your perspective and your point of view.

[Josh Brown]

Exactly.

[Jim Leventhal]

Not speaking for anybody else. Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. We are going to take a quick break, and if you have a flight or a planned flight coming up this weekend, you don't want to miss our developing story. We have an update on the nation's airports and all of those flights, hundreds of them, at least around this country canceled. Phil LeBeau will join us with the latest next.

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[Jim Leventhal]

In that amount of time, there are.

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Likely to be an average of over.

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[Scott Wapner]

More on that developing story we've been following certainly all day. US Airlines canceling hundreds of flights due to the ongoing government shutdown. Our Filiboe live at DFW with the very latest on what we are seeing and when it might get better.

[Phil LeBeau]

I'm not sure when it will get better, Scott. Certainly today it's calm. At least here in Dallas it's calm. And around the country we've had decent weather. That certainly helps. But as you take a look at the top 40 airports, the top 40 markets really where the bulk of the flights are in this country, this is where the airlines proactively have been told by the dot cancel flights, 4% of them. So they've canceled 748 today. By the way, total cancellations today now top 1200. Where the additional cancellations come from, some of it is aircraft. Some of it may be because of staffing at air traffic control. So it's now over 1200. And again, the bulk of those canceled in advance by airlines. So here's how the cancellations will work. Today it's 4% of all the flights into the top 40 markets. Tuesday, it rises up to 6%. Thursday it goes to 8%. A week from today, 10% of the flights into those top 40 markets will be scrapped by the airlines. Are the customers noticing this change, noticing the disruption? When we talked with American CEO Robert Isom, he made it clear they're noticing.

[Steve Weiss]

It'S an incredibly complex environment that we deal in. And so whether it's planes that need to be maintained, our pilots that have to maintain currency, you know, our crews, right, when you cancel a flight today, right, they don't just simply pick up.

[Scott Wapner]

Where they left off.

[Steve Weiss]

They have to be totally rearranged.

[Phil LeBeau]

That's the challenge for the airlines. Robert Isom also told me, look, they are noticing it in terms of bookings, to what extent remains to be seen, corporate bookings near term. And I can vouch for that, Scott. I hear from a number of people who did they just stop me here in the airport or when I was flying down here to Dallas and they're like, I'm not crazy about making this trip, not sure if I'm going to get back home. And that's the reality for a lot of the near term, short, near term bookings, longer term. We're just 20 days from Thanksgiving and a lot of people already have their plans locked in. There's a question of certainty for those plans. And then there's also the question of further out. Do people delay making other plans for the holiday season?

[Scott Wapner]

You know, sometimes the best evidence is anecdotal, just like you just have given us from what you've seen with your own two eyes and heard from other travelers who are going through the airport wondering if they're going to get where they want to get to or they're going to be sitting, sitting around for hours, if not longer than that. Phil, we'll see. We'll see where it all goes. Thank you very much for the update. That's Philippeau in Dallas, DFW Airport, one of the nation's busiest. Obviously, what a week too for, for airlines, right? Airlines surged earlier in the week following the election results, thinking that, well, okay, maybe this is going to somehow end the government shutdown. If you look at the, you know, let's look at a week to date. Not, not that. There you go, right? Look at that, the Wednesday move after the elections. And then here we are talking about the cancellations.

[Steve Weiss]

Choppy, choppy, choppy. I mean, the news all year has created a very choppy environment, whether it's the most recent on curtailing flights or Liberation Day. You know, ultimately what happens as an airline investor is you look at this and you say at first this is bad, this is bad across the board. But what happens when you reduce supply, you increase price? I'm not saying that the airlines are going to recover everything from the lost flights, but they're going to recover a lot of it with price and that's going to stink for consumers, going to raise a fuss. And if we think that this is going to go on until Thanksgiving, I mean, both parties better realize that is a failing strategy and get this shut down.

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, they may be cutting the flights that aren't profitable. So that'll further increase their profitability.

[Scott Wapner]

Good.

[Jim Leventhal]

And the algos that they have, look, I've flown a lot recently. Every seat is full on every plane and that's what they'll do here.

[Steve Weiss]

Here's the thing, Steve. I mean, you're right, but the DOT is going to tell them where they've got to cut flights. Is it going to be cutting flights from?

[David Schwartz]

I'm not.

[Steve Weiss]

If I say Indianapolis, it's only because I've got to go there next week. Are they going to cut from Indianapolis or are they going to cut from Newark? I think they're probably going to cut from Newark.

[Scott Wapner]

They've said that, you know, so called hub to hub may not be impacted nearly as bad. In other words, you fly from Denver to Newark, you fly from Houston to Newark, you fly from Chicago to Dallas, American to American, United to United, etc.

[Steve Weiss]

If I could tie it up in a bow when the shutdown ends, that's a tailwind. This is the point. A headwind becomes a tailwind when the shutdown ends. I don't know when that is.

[Scott Wapner]

You've had a tumultuous show thus far, probably due to the super sized Red Bull you had before we began. So I'm afraid almost to give you the catnip of wind, you want to, you want wins, wins, green for the week.

[Steve Weiss]

Wins had a good year.

[Scott Wapner]

Wynn had good earnings. Do you want to give me a little something on that? I mean, are you feeling good about yourself?

[Steve Weiss]

I just feel calm. Feel calm notwithstanding the Red Bull. Okay, look, when on win, folks, if you saw Scott's face, you'd understand why I'm laughing on. When people look at the earnings per share and say, wasn't that a mission? People don't measure Wynn or the casinos on earnings per share. They do it on ebitda. And EBITDA was a resounding beat. And it continues a string of resounding beats. Wynn is the premier casino operator, particularly in Las Vegas. That's why despite all the talks of a slowdown over the summer, they kind of killed it in Las Vegas. And when we look out over the next year, all Marjan, which is their UAE resort, is going to come online in early 2027. That's starting to get prices into the stock. I do like the stock.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's get the headlines now with Dominic Chu. Hey, Dom.

[Dominic Chu]

All right. Good afternoon, Scott. Cornell University reached an agreement today with the Trump administration to restore hundreds of millions in federal funding. That's according to the New York Times, which says Cornell is expected to pay a $30 million fine and invest $30 million in agricultural and farming programs. The agreement also ends government investigations at the Ivy League school over accusations of racial discrimination and antisemitism. The US Snubbed a United nations meeting to review the country's human rights record today. The universal periodic review process gives governments and rights groups a chance to scrutinize practices of all 193 member states every four to five years. A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. is proud of its human rights record. And Kendrick Lamar led the way with nine Grammy nominations today, followed by Lady Gaga with seven and Sabrina Carpenter, Leon Thomas and Bad Bunny with six apiece. And another first for the coveted music award. The single golden from Netflix's K Pop Demon Hunters got a nod for song of the year, becoming the first K pop group to score a nomination in that category. So a paradigm changer in pop culture. Scott, I will send things back over to you guys.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Dom, thanks so much. That's Dom Chu. Coming up next, Josh Brown with his best stocks in the market. The spotlight on two outperformers on the list. We debate next.

[David Schwartz]

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[MultiCare Representative]

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[Scott Wapner]

All right, welcome back. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. We shine the spotlight today on two more names, which are Josh Brown.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, now for something completely different. When the trade falters, these are the types of stocks that attract buyers. I want to talk about Welltower and I want to talk about Ventas W e l L is is well to our look, this is a gigantic business enterprise value over $80 billion. They have 2,000 communities of both independent and assisted living facilities for seniors. We have one of the fastest growing cohorts in this country is the 80 year old. And plus these people are living longer. And thanks to gains in the stock market and real estate, many of them have more money than ever. And Welltower has been incredibly well positioned. The business has been around for 50 years. They've been building up to this. They knew it was coming and now they're ready and they are making an absolute fortune. This is on the best stocks the market list all year Judge. The stock has just continued to trade higher. I don't even have a stop loss in. In my write up on the Risk Management piece, what I would basically say is buy it, add to it slowly. But I think this name could continue to lead in the, in the health care REIT space. The other one, Ventas, smaller business, same CEO since 1999. She has created an incredible amount of shareholder value. Basically this is a situation where you've got a stock that's not quite overbought, a little bit overbought. But I would do the same thing. I would look for red days and start to accumulate slowly. Neither one of these is a yield play. Both of them are among the lowest yielding dividend names in the REIT space. These are growth companies and there's growth as far as the eye can see for senior housing and I think that'll continue for years to come.

[Scott Wapner]

How many names do you have in total now on the list?

[Josh Brown]

Falling, but still north of 50.

[Scott Wapner]

North of 50. And how often are you, are you going through the list looking to call names or ad.

[Josh Brown]

It's all the time. It's algorithmically driven. And look, we've had. Robinhood is on the list, right? Robinhood will remain on the list. It's very high above its long term moving averages. But this name is pulled back like that's where the opportunities are in the best stocks in the market list. Not pulling the trigger at an all time high and hoping for another one the next day. We've got names that Robinhood is trading 53 times forward earnings value investors are not here. Growth investors are here. It's the second best performing stock in the entire US S&P 500 opportunity set. It's up 232% this year. The fact that it sells off 10, 11% off its high after reporting earnings think if you're an intelligent investor you say okay, I missed this One the whole way up now might be my chance if I want to play a business that's growing revenue 100 something percent year over year because I think they can continue. So that's how we think about the list. And there are so many names like that that are, that are still on our radar.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. All right, good stuff. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back. We have three new moves. Three from Kevin Simpson. We document them next. All right, let's talk some trades. Kevin Simpson, you bought Marathon Petroleum. Tell me why that one.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, wanted to stick with Josh's Monty Python theme. These are stocks that are non tech. Quietly up 33% in the past six months. This is a name that we owned in 2022. It saved us when the tech stocks rolled over. I'm thrilled to have it back in the portfolio. 14 multiple so low valuations, 2% plus dividend. And they've been increasing their dividend by 15% for the past three years. They buy back stock, they take care of shareholders. We love the name and I'm happy.

[Scott Wapner]

To be back into it. You sold some Procter and Gamble?

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, the complete opposite. This is a stock in a sector consumer Staples have been incredibly out of favor. We still hold a 2% position. You get a little dividend here. We owned it for a long time. If the consumer comes back and Staples in particular come back, we may add to it. But I envision this continuing to draft down and us getting stopped out of it.

[Phil LeBeau]

Unfortunately.

[Scott Wapner]

You sold a Honeywell spin off called Solstice Advanced Materials. Tell me more about the company. Tell me what the trade is, please.

[Kevin Simpson]

So this isn't a specific call against Solstice Materials. If you like the material space, this is certainly a name that you can hold because the divestiture within Honeywell, we think that the crown jewel in there is aerospace. We also like the industrial. So the material spin off with Solstice, you got one share for every four shares of Honeywell. Well, it's just we don't need the name in there. It's not a stock that we've been tracking. We want the aerospace might keep the industrial, but this just freed us up a little dry powder.

[Scott Wapner]

Can we back pull the chart out a little bit further? I mean that name is down 22% or so right from its 52 week high.

[Kevin Simpson]

I don't think it's fair to look at it too close.

[Scott Wapner]

One year. Could we look at one year, please?

[Kevin Simpson]

I don't think you're going to have a chart specific specifically on this name, we would have to look at Honeywell.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, I got you.

[Jim Leventhal]

I got you in there.

[Scott Wapner]

Right, right, right.

[Kevin Simpson]

So my bad. There's nothing wrong with it if you keep it. I'm just. I don't need another ticker on the book.

[Scott Wapner]

I got you. Okay, we'll talk restaurant stocks coming up. Indigestion, to say the least this week. We'll explain. Welcome back. It's been a pretty nasty week for restaurant stocks, just to give you an idea of why I say that. Kava's down 11%. Shake Shack's down four and a half. Brinker's down five. Chipotle is down four. Sweetgreen was down big. In the premarket, it was down 20%. It's pared that a bit, but it has not been great. Wendy's had earnings today. The stock was up, the comps were down, but they were less than expected. They were down less than expected. What Josh is going on here is this simply concern about consumer spending. You've seen that show up in some of the results. You've seen it also show up, frankly, and in a lot of the commentary from some of the CEOs.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, there's really no such thing as, quote, the consumer. We have all different tiers of consumers. And every time I want to get negative on the consumer, and it's tempting to do because I listen to people talk, then I get the bank of America credit and debit card spending. And it actually said that consumer spending is their. Their word, not mine, accelerating. So I know that this is a convenient scapegoat and companies will come on and they'll say, well, at the lower end, the consumer is struggling. As if there's ever a time where at the lower end, the consumer is, like, doing just peachy. So I think there's companies that are operating and executing companies that aren't. In the case of shock, they absolutely crushed their numbers. They beat by. They beat by 1% on revenue, but they beat by 17% on earnings per share, 36 versus 31 cents. And margins were better than expected, 14.7%, which was an almost 5% beat. So Shack is executing 630 stores. At quarter end, they are doing much better with the. On the labor side as far as retention, keeping people for longer and not having as much turnover and new equipment, new marketing campaigns. So as a shareholder, I'm good. Like, I didn't hear anything that would make me change my mind.

[Scott Wapner]

Jimmy, thank you. Let me see a week to date, if you could, on doordash, which Kevin Simpson loved having in his portfolio until some of what happened this week. There it is. And during our program, quite literally, you sold it.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah. We saw those earnings as just horrific. Not anything like we expected. They missed on the bottom line. They missed on the top. Top line. They were down 17% in one day. We thought we'd wait and see if there was a little bit of a bounce. And there was. That bounce didn't hold at $200 while we were sitting here, we liquidated the entire position in our growth strategy. It's depressing because it was a name that we had a really strong conviction on and a lot of optimistic expectations. But the lesson is when the math changes, when the data changes, don't fall in love with the stock. Met is down 24%. We all over own it.

[Scott Wapner]

No one's selling me something quickly on DraftKings, which had a disappointing outlook and that stock was lower. You own it. Right?

[Kevin Simpson]

The prediction markets are eating their lunch and they're teasing.

[Scott Wapner]

They say that's coming soon.

[Kevin Simpson]

They're teasing that idea. But it might be too late. I mean, if you look at Robinhood and these other companies, they've just completely devastated the simplicity of being able to support to gamble on sports in a single app. So we're not selling it, but if they don't deliver, we're not going to.

[Scott Wapner]

Keep this in about 7% on the week. You can see a bit of a rebound today. We'll do finals after this break.

[Steve Weiss]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll see on closing bell this afternoon, two hours from now. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School will join me along with Chris Toomey, Rick Heitzman, Warren Pies and Bryn Talkington. And I hope you will as well. Well, because we got a lot to talk about as we look into a new week. Josh Brown, final trade from you, please.

[Josh Brown]

Joby Aviation is in a pullback. Spoke to the company this week headed to the Dubai Air show and they are super excited about what they're going to be unveiling. So I am, too. Who knows what it could be?

[Scott Wapner]

All right. The low altitude economy remains a favored play. That stock today down almost 6%. Kevin Simpson, Mr. Three Piece. Mr. Three Piece.

[Kevin Simpson]

Marathon Petroleum. This stock has a lot to like, record free cash flow, increasing dividends and record share buybacks.

[Scott Wapner]

Jimmy Red Bull, ExxonMobil, you feeling good?

[Steve Weiss]

I am feeling good. ExxonMobil, also an energy source. This is a stock that has done very well despite the fact that crude oil is down 20% of this year to date. And if you look at the recent momentum, I think it's going to continue.

[Scott Wapner]

I don't advise you to drink that, though. I would stay with your Red Bull advice taken.

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, we're going to offer him different advice.

[Scott Wapner]

What about you, Weiss?

[Josh Brown]

Metta?

[Jim Leventhal]

Look, it's. This is a permanent compound or a term I often use, and I like it right here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, good stuff. Good weekend, everybody. I'll see you on the Bell exchanges. Now you've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the Pipe podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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[David Schwartz]

Your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office, so why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple.