CNBC Halftime Report – "Tech's Tumultuous Week"

Airdate: November 7, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Josh Brown
Special Reporting: Sima Modi, Phil LeBeau

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives deep into a wild week for technology stocks, exploring the drivers of the tech sell-off, the debate over massive AI-related spending, escalating corporate debt, and the broader implications for markets. The team also examines fallout in crypto, airline operations amid a government shutdown, best stock ideas outside Big Tech, and sector-specific turbulence in restaurants and beyond.

Theme 1: The Tech Pullback—Bubble Talk or a Healthy Correction?

Key Market Movements

• Nasdaq down over 450 points (2% decline) during showtime ([01:00]).
• Multiple big names (Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Palantir) down in consecutive sessions ([03:00]).
• Meta down 24% from its recent high, Nvidia 15%, Microsoft 11%.

Discussion Highlights

What's Driving the Sell-Off?

• "There's no one answer... you’ve continued to hear the narrative increase, that tech's in a bubble, that valuation exceeds what's reasonable."
  — Jim Leventhal [01:50]
• Investors flee rapidly as worries turn self-fulfilling.

Is Meta the Canary in the AI Coal Mine?

• "Meta represents the first sign that there actually are consequences in terms of stock price for overspending on capex without having a coherent strategy that investors can understand or believe in."
  — Josh Brown [03:42]
• Meta's AI investments are questioned; uncertainty over strategies like Llama (Meta’s open source AI) prompts investor doubt.

Bubble, Or Just a Needed Pullback?

• "Anyone saying a bubble, well in a bubble you don't have some of the most important companies in the theme in 24% drawdowns."
  — Josh Brown [05:34]
• "I think sometimes markets themselves can become self-fulfilling prophecies and it's almost like you sell first and ask questions later."
  — Kevin Simpson [07:10]

Spending: Risk or Justified?

• Huge CapEx numbers:
  • Amazon: $125B, Meta $70–72B, Alphabet $91–93B, Microsoft $35B in Q1 ([08:21])
• "UBS... talks about elevated valuations triggering the volatility and the return of it... But that the fundamentals... they’re justified."
  — Scott Wapner [08:21]
• "The fundamentals support a continued rally... what I think is happening... is liquidity is drying up. And I believe... this is a result of the government shutdown..."
  — Steve Weiss [09:04]

Contrasting Views on Causes

• Weiss attributes short-term pressure to liquidity effects of the government shutdown, not fundamental cracks. Leventhal pushes back, calling that "an overly simplistic approach" ([12:13]).

Key Quotes

• "Meta took out what, 30 billion? Oracle took out 30 billion. 60 billion. Yeah."
  — Steve Weiss [14:35]
• "The coverage ratios on what these companies are buying from their cash flow is insane."
  — Jim Leventhal [16:01]

Theme 2: AI Megacap Spending & Rising Debt: Good or Alarm Signal?

Debt Issuance & Spreads

• Oracle, Meta, Alphabet have all recently issued large chunks of debt to fund AI and cloud buildouts.
• "Debt financing is good, particularly when it's collateralized by hard assets such as data centers so that you can get a lower interest rate."
  — Steve Weiss [18:50]
• Sima Modi reports Oracle’s $38B debt deal, with key questions on margins and sustainability ([17:11]).
• Spreads on "hyperscaler" bonds are widening but not at panic levels, flagged as a "watch out metric" by BofA ([15:01]).

Are These Risks Manageable?

• "Let me not make the claim that there is no risk to taking out debt... but they're financing vendors to build assets right now that are productive..."
  — Steve Weiss [20:14]
• "It's not really what equity investors are saying... it's what the credit investors, what the debt investors are saying. When they get worried, that's when you should get worried. But, you know, they're not worried."
  — Jim Leventhal [21:03]

Theme 3: Crypto & Risk Appetite

Connecting Tech & Crypto Pullbacks

• Bitcoin down 8.5% for the week amid Nasdaq weakness ([21:11], [21:58]).
• "When it stops rising... the momentum crowd moves on... We financialized this asset... It is now the purview of asset flows coming into places like Blackrock."
  — Josh Brown [21:58]
• "A lot of the bull case for Bitcoin was... to be able to have this thing that people could transact in, that's not the US Dollar... stablecoins have become way too successful..."
  — Josh Brown [22:42]

Pure Momentum vs. Fundamental Case

• "It's a risk-off trade... I still haven't seen, you know, basically a use case that's valid. And it's still, you know, there's no way to assess the tangible value on it."
  — Jim Leventhal [23:51]
• Leventhal admits a (cynical) momentum play, mentioning "Trump’s family allegedly has $7 billion in bitcoin"—implying political motives may drive the price ([24:43]).

Theme 4: Airline Chaos & Shutdown Fallout

Operational Impact

• Hundreds of flights canceled due to the ongoing US government shutdown, escalating from 4% to 10% of flights being preemptively cut over the coming week ([27:32]).

Airline Industry Perspective

• "When you cancel a flight today, right, they don't just simply pick up where they left off. They have to be totally rearranged."
  — Robert Isom, American Airlines CEO via Phil LeBeau [28:41]
• Investors expect supply cuts will lead to higher prices, preserving airline profitability despite overall pain for travelers ([31:04]).

Notable Quotes

• "What happens when you reduce supply, you increase price. Not saying that the airlines are going to recover everything from the lost flights, but they're going to recover a lot of it with price and that's going to stink for consumers..."
  — Steve Weiss [30:27]

Theme 5: Best Stocks in the Market—Diversifying Away from Tech

Josh Brown’s Picks

• Welltower (WELL): Senior housing REIT benefiting from aging demographics.
  • "Buy it, add to it slowly... could continue to lead in the healthcare REIT space." ([35:30])
• Ventas (VTR): Similar thesis; well-run, “growth as far as the eye can see.”
• Robinhood (HOOD): Despite volatility, up 232% YTD, and viewed as an opportunity after post-earnings pullback ([37:29]).

Theme 6: Portfolio Moves & Sector Analysis

Kevin Simpson’s Trades ([39:00])

• Bought: Marathon Petroleum (MPC): Value, dividend growth, defensive.
• Sold: Procter & Gamble (PG): “Consumer Staples have been incredibly out of favor... I envision this continuing to drift down.”
• Sold: Solstice Advanced Materials (Honeywell spinoff): Not following, prefers core Honeywell aerospace and industrial.

Restaurant Stock Woes

• Kava -11%, Shake Shack -4.5%, Chipotle -4%, Sweetgreen taken a hit.
• "There's really no such thing as, quote, the consumer. We have all different tiers of consumers... companies that are operating and executing, and companies that aren’t."
  — Josh Brown [41:46]

DoorDash & DraftKings Falls

• "We saw those earnings as just horrific... we liquidated the entire position in our growth strategy."
  — Kevin Simpson on DoorDash [43:16]
• DraftKings under pressure from new competition in sports betting apps and prediction markets ([43:53]).

Final Trades Roundtable ([45:13])

• Josh Brown:
  • Joby Aviation, optimistic heading into Dubai Air Show
• Kevin Simpson:
  • Marathon Petroleum: "Record free cash flow, increasing dividends and record share buybacks."
• Steve Weiss:
  • ExxonMobil: "Done very well despite crude oil down 20% YTD... recent momentum will continue."
• Jim Leventhal:
  • Meta: “This is a permanent compounder, a term I often use, and I like it right here.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "In a bubble you don't have some of the most important companies in the theme in 24% drawdowns."
  — Josh Brown [05:34]
• "Debt financing is great until it isn't."
  — Scott Wapner [19:31]
• "The lesson is when the math changes, when the data changes, don’t fall in love with the stock."
  — Kevin Simpson [43:16]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:00] — Tech selloff and market overview
• [03:42] — Meta as the AI capex cautionary tale
• [08:21] — Mega-cap CapEx numbers and fundamental vs. liquidity debate
• [14:35] — Magnitude of tech borrowing for AI expansion
• [17:11] — Sima Modi on Oracle’s debt-fueled AI buildout
• [21:58] — Bitcoin drops in sync with Nasdaq; commentary on crypto’s evolution
• [27:32] — Phil LeBeau reports on airlines canceling flights due to shutdown
• [35:30] — Josh Brown’s “best stocks” picks: Welltower, Ventas, Robinhood
• [39:00] — Kevin Simpson’s buys/sells: Marathon Petroleum, Procter & Gamble, Solstice Materials
• [41:46] — Restaurant stock rout; consumer spending debate
• [43:16] — DoorDash disappointment: Kevin Simpson exits position
• [45:13] — Final trade picks

Tone & Atmosphere

The conversation is lively, sometimes contentious—balancing optimism in tech fundamentals with growing caution over valuation and spending. The mood is candid but analytical, with panelists alternately challenging and supporting each other, reflecting real-time market anxieties and investor strategy recalibrations.