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Halftime Report
The AI Spend-A-Palooza 2/5/26
00:47:21
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee are live from San Francisco to debate the surge in AI spending and how you should trade it. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we've got not one, but two legendary NFL Quarterbacks joining us: Four time Super Bowl Champion Joe Montana and Super Bowl 17 winner Joe Theismann. They discuss football, business and investing. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Scott Wapner
This episode is brought to you by.
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Josh Brown
Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10.
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Scott Wapner
Minutes or less, including projected stock updates.
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Josh Brown
Monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com Market.
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Scott Wapner
Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update.
- [00:27]
Josh Brown
Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:29]
Capella University Announcer
You've never been one to settle, stand down or stand still. You're a lifelong learner, energized by excellence. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. You've got competition to outrun, momentum to build on and your own high standards to meet. Stop now. Not a chance. At Capella University, we help you catch what you're chasing because you've always had the drive. Now go earn the degree. Capella University. What can't you do? Visit Capella. Edu to learn more.
- [01:00]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner at One Market in San Francisco. Today we have come to the Bay Area because Super Bowl 60 is here, just a little south of us down in Santa Clara. And we've got some very special guests joining us over the next hour. Four time super bowl winner Joe Montana. He has a new playbook for success and you'll hear from him in just a little bit. The winning quarterback of Super Bowl 17, Joe Theisman will also be here to talk some ball and another big passion of his stocks and high end hospitality and lifestyle guru Kenny Dichter joins us on his latest big game, big idea. The markets, well, they're always front and center, as you know. The investment committee is with me as well. Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington and Bill Baruch to kick this all around as we take a look at the markets. We're trying to get off the lows here, but it's a nasty day. Tech continues to get slammed. Bitcoin's a big story. We'll get to all of that. Silver's getting smoked. Josh, I'll come to you first. I mean, there's so much going on. The obvious things with tech, but soft labor market, you look at what's happening in the bond market, as I said, silver, bitcoin, you take your pick on what stands out to you the most.
- [02:32]
Josh Brown
I look, I Think this is not very complicated. These are some of the biggest winners over the last three years where you're seeing the maximum amount of pain. Tech is down 5% year to date. It is the worst of the 11s and P sectors and it's not even close. The next worst sector is financials, which is only down one and a half percent, which I would call flat. And so you're thinking about institutions, you're thinking about large investors, asset managers, and they're looking at the chessboard. We've got one month in the books and they want to figure out, all right, I thought this going into the year, now maybe I'm thinking that. And as a result, you're seeing like insane things like the flows which bank of America has been talking about into consumer staples. When you look at the fundamental outlook for the names in that group, nothing has really changed at all. There's no fundamental story. It's a mass rerating, but it's not based on people all of a sudden expecting faster earnings growth or some sort of like new revenue story. All that's happening is money is shifting into an area that A is deemed less AI disruptible and B, the charts look good. Pepsi and Coke look like they just discovered a cure for cancer. I promise you, none of what's happening in the prices of those names has anything to do with fundamentals. So it's just that sort of herd shift and people going to, oh, materials are working. Let me do some research on some material. Stocks I haven't looked at in, I don't know, nine years. So when you see that type of action, as an investor, you have a choice. You could say, I want to run off and join the circus too. And you can buy those charts, which is starting to look like the Empire State Building, or you can remain calm, focus on the fundamentals of the companies that you own and try to think past what's going to happen the next week, the next month, the next quarter, what do I really want to do? Portfolio wide. And look, this is a function of what your personality type is. I think more than anything else.
- [04:32]
Scott Wapner
Brin, the biggest story of the market seems to be this, this sell off in tech, the mega caps. If you look at the performance over one week, especially the hyperscalers, and then if you want to put in video into that, because they're such a beneficiary of the hyperscaling, they're all down sharply over one week. Nvidia and Meta, down 10% as we have with at least Alphabet sake, this huge pickup in Spending which has just made investors uneasy, 175 to $185 billion is their outlook for capex. In 2026 the street was looking for 115. So they're so far ahead of that as we keep regurgitating the same conversation. You're spending so much. When is the return on that money?
- [05:25]
Bryn Talkington
Well, I mean the returns are here and so I do think that to kind of like click on Josh's for a second while the tech is down 5. If you look within tech, a lot of stocks are down between 15 and 30. So I think that top line down 5 isn't even remotely talking about the pain. But if you listen to Google's or Alphabet's call last night, it was amazing. Like search grew 17%. Their free cash flow is massive. Google cloud is growing so high their margins, there was like nothing not to like there. And if you think about it, if you're going to ramp up in a year, isn't this the year to do it when you get 100% depreciation when you which then is going to make, make their free cash flow still look very, very high. And so I think right now we're in the market is very fussy. Around to your point this Capex spend and you know Apple is held up very well this week as they don't have the CapEx spend. But this is also the opportunity because I do not think that a cloud, a cloud plug in that you have to give your username and passcodes is all of a sudden going to take all these software stocks down to zero. And, and so I think Google is a great opportunity. Let it come down here. I mean it's already rallied back. I think it was down 19 points earlier. This is a great company to own. They are clicking on all metrics. So to me I think just like accept the market's fussiness around this, look through it, listen to your earnings call and this is like where you find opportunity because I totally agree with Josh. Like P and G is like just like running every day. They're growing at 2%. How can I get excited about that when I see actually the real numbers, the speed spend as big at Google, but so are the profits, Scott. And so no one's wanting to talk about the profits today because the hedge funds just want to take everything down. So just like let it happen. Be choosy and be opportunistic.
- [07:11]
Scott Wapner
This spending, Joe, is, is just so dramatic from everybody. What we're calling a spend a palooza as it relates to AI we can take you to this wall that we had made here of the project. Projected capex from these, these hyperscalers and this is on a quarterly basis as Dee was just talking about in the, in the last hour. The combined capex on an annual basis is so massive that I guess there are concerns and maybe they are legit that these companies are going to get a significant enough return on that money to, to justify all that spending. But the market needs to see it. I guess it's a, show me, show me the money before they're going to give maybe the benefit of the doubt any further.
- [07:59]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, that's, that's well described. I wouldn't, I wouldn't disagree with, with any of that. I think, you know, Oracle was, was the real initial example of it. But I also think from the perspective of thinking about how you're allocating as a CIO or a portfolio manager, I said yes, I think we have a fatigue. I think there's an exhaustion to a certain extent to the limit. You could take positioning in these Mag 7 names. We all know you want to be long them. How long do you want to be them? I think that's ultimately the question. So I think right now when you see the spending, it's about the derivative. And the derivative takes you to names like Broadcom and the semiconductors which are actually higher right now and in video and you could trail even lower. You could look at some of the power equipment names and datacenter infrastructure I mentioned yesterday. Hubble Corp. Is a name that's participating there. I think that's where the better opportunity is because I just don't think the positioning is, is as overweight as it's been represented over the last 18 months in the speculative and hedge fund community.
- [08:59]
Scott Wapner
Well, if you look at some of the calls today, you know, maybe they're taking very much what Brin was saying and, and looking try to look longer term than just this fixation with big numbers. Speaking of numbers, Citi raises its Alphabet Target today to 390. From 350 they reiterate buy. Just like essentially Brin did Morgan Stanley Alphabet they reiterate thereby just like Brin did the target they keep though at 330. I guess I would turn to you, Bill Baruch, and say, okay, let's see what Amazon delivers tonight in overtime because now the pressure is on. We're going to be looking for growth in web services and we are going to be looking for growth in the spend.
- [09:43]
Bill Baruch
Yeah, we need to continue to see that that reacceleration in us. I mean we have to see in the low 20s, it's got to continue to show up even if it's a good report, it's what the market makes of it. And unlike Alphabet, which is trading at 2 standard deviations above its historical valuation band, Amazon has been fairly muted in that sense. And I think it sets up for a good report for, for Amazon. But you know, you have to look at the larger, the larger environment right now and there is a wave of selling that's it's taking place and the market may be taking, you know, if it's not just absolutely perfect, you're going to have a little bit of a rotation down in the price of the stock. You know, I would like to see that reacceleration aws. It's going to be extremely important. But again, I think the market has a little bit of cobwebs to work through right now broadly.
- [10:35]
Scott Wapner
I got to talk about software because the sell off in these names year to date is nothing short of stunning. We'll cycle through some of these stocks for you. Cyber Palo Alto down 12%. CrowdStrike looks very similar to that. You look at a palantir, it's down 26%. Oracle's down 27. ServiceNow is down 30. DocuSign's down 32. Service Titan is down 39. Now I could cite, and I could probably find a note here and a note there that reiterates a positive view of any of these names. But I think what's more powerful for our viewers is to hear from all of you to see where you're actually putting your money. Money speaks louder than words. Actions certainly do. On that note, Josh Brown, you bought more Service Titan and you bought more Toast. Toast is down 23% year to date. And just to reiterate, service is down 39%. So this in your mind is overdone by, by large amounts.
- [11:40]
Josh Brown
I think there's a lot of money being managed and I wish I like managed. So if you're listening to this and not watching, I'm doing air quotes by people who have never run a business before and I think this is getting overdone. If I were a trader in these names, I wouldn't touch them. They are, they're heavy. Like there's not, there's not even a sign of a bottom in any of them. So I'm speaking as an investor and in both of these particular names I'm making an investment. I talked about it when I bought, I averaged down. I add to my position that's not trader behavior, that's investor behavior. But as a business owner and somebody that has employees and cybersecurity risks and workflows and things that are mission critical systems of record inside of the business, you can't just like nuke your tech stack because somebody makes something with a chatbot and is like, oh cool, this is free. And that thing, you're paying $15 a head with an enterprise license, therefore all of this stuff should be ripped out and we're just going to run the business on anthropic. Like in no. In no industry is anyone really doing that. So I asked the question rhetorically. The answer is obvious when you say it out loud. What is more likely? A Every corporation in America and every small and midsize business is going to rip out the software that serves as the system of record, the vertically important software their business. Rip it out and throw it away or be There will be tons of disruption, a lot of it at the edges. But in the end, the best in class software companies in each vertical are going to figure out how to use AI to make their own product stickier, more efficient, better and in some cases, yeah, cheaper for the user. B just seems obvious now. I recognize you ain't going to get rewarded for that sort of logic in a liquidation. And if people want to push on this IGV basket and if people want to press on these Goldman Sachs lists of application layer software, etc. That's not going to help you. So I don't think that these are great trading opportunities. Maybe there's a snapback. I do think if you are investing in these companies and you could see past next week or next quarter, they're just, they've gotten too hammered. You have to step in and do something.
- [14:08]
Scott Wapner
I'd say, you know, Joe, the question becomes if you shift from software to semis. So the market has been able to reasonably deal with the sell off in software because semis have picked up the slack. They've done the straight up, while the semi the software stocks have done. The question is, are they now getting vulnerable? As Ed Yardeni asks today, as he suggests, these companies are living by the AI sword that the semiconductor stock price index peaked on the same day the stock of its largest constituent Nvidia peaked over one week. Joe, if you look at some of these names here, okay, Skyworks and Teradyne are having a nice move, but almost everything else Major is down double digits over the last week. So I don't know that this market, this NASDAQ can, can Handle a rollover in semis while it's having one in software.
- [15:04]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, well I think that that's relatively obvious based on what we've seen this week. But I think I would be careful with looking at the semiconductor industry and believing that you don't want to maintain some form of long ownership in the names. I like the semi equipment names best. I like your kla, Applied Materials and LAM Research. I, I also, and I'm comfortable with that. We've been long them for quite some time and I still think as we move forward they're integral in this infrastructure buildout. I think Broadcom and Nvidia will continue to capture market share in this story. Overall memory got really hot over the last quarter. I think you're seeing a moderation there as well. So I still think it's semis over software. I agree with what Josh is saying. If you're looking at it right now, you could look at the business on a long term basis and we still have ownership of six software names. We had 18 software names just one quarter ago. Obviously we brought that down significantly. But I still think the story leans more towards semis over software.
- [16:13]
Scott Wapner
More importantly, speaking of memory, Bill, you trimmed Micron and I don't. And everybody who watches this show knows that chart has just looked crazy. I mean the stock has gone parabolic.
- [16:24]
Bill Baruch
Yeah, yeah. I think everybody watches the show to the knows. It's been a double table pounder for me. It's been, you know, a top three name of the last couple of months. We increased it at 190 to 200 into the end of the year. It's been a heck of a move really. You know the trims that we've made recently in talking about Micron here earlier in the week, you know, was. It's not a conviction that we need to trim it. It's more on a risk management standpoint. It became a 6% holding in our, in our main portfolio. It became a nine and a half percent holding in our concentrated portfolio. So we're shaving this down now. Yeah, I think the fact that it's really taken the front page and it's, it's really what everybody's been talking about over the past few weeks makes me a little nervous in the near term. And as I stated a minute ago, they got market working through some of these cobwebs and if I look at a chart I like to look at where are the support levels and I see that there's some room to wiggle lower a little bit. I don't Think things need to fall apart. I'm a little worried as we move into closer to April. So what I'm taking a look here is getting Micron. It's a more manageable spot. It trades like a commodity. It's still very, very cheap. 10 to 11 multiple. But I think right here you just got to be able to manage the position properly because there's going to be some continued volatility.
- [17:39]
Scott Wapner
I bet investors are trying to figure out where support levels are of bitcoin, which is obviously breaking down. It dipped below 67k today. That's the lowest level since November of 24. I bring that up because, Bill, when I see that you sold Coinbase and you also sold the iShares Bitcoin Trust, is it, is this trade done? I mean, is this, is this move in bitcoin to the downside have more room to go here?
- [18:08]
Bill Baruch
Yeah, I mean, I look at Bitcoin in that 75,000 area, roughly speaking, was, was a big support for us. And yeah, bitcoin, the I Bet and Coinbase were basically the two smallest positions in our portfolio combined. They mean a little bit more. But, you know, the way I'm looking at this here is, you know, Coinbase, when that legislation didn't get passed January 15th or 16th, this thing has gone straight down. I wish I managed to risk a little bit better before today, but with, you know, the way we looked at it was sizing is risk management and the Bitcoin at 75,000. So we've broken those supports now. I like the fact that we're selling it now in the entire market has, has seen a pullback because I'd rather go into something, use this money and go into something that I have more conviction. You, you'll probably be hearing from me over the next week or so. I'm going to be buying something else and I'm going to be moving this money around. But for Now, Bitcoin below 75,000 very worries me and it opens the door maybe where the next round number 50,000 or so.
- [19:07]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. We'll take a quick break. Coming up next, counting down to the big game, NFL hall of Famer Joe Montana. He joins me live right here at One Market to talk about the big business of football and his winning playbook in venture capital. And later, super bowl champ Joe Theisman. He's here. Well, he's betting on one part of this market. He loves talking ball, he loves talking stocks. We'll do all of that ahead.
- [19:33]
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- [19:48]
Bill Baruch
What made you confident that you could.
- [19:50]
Scott Wapner
Do something that hadn't been done before?
- [19:53]
Bryn Talkington
I have no fear of failure.
- [19:54]
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [19:57]
Bryn Talkington
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [20:07]
Kate Rooney
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [20:10]
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [20:32]
Scott Wapner
All right, welcome back to One Market here in San Francisco. Four super bowl appearances, four wins and three MVP awards. But these days, Joe Montana is scoring big in the field of venture capital. He is the founder and managing partner of Liquid2 Ventures and is here with us to discuss. It's so great to have you here.
- [20:50]
Kenny Dichter
Thank you.
- [20:50]
Joe Montana
Thank you for having me. Appreciate.
- [20:52]
Scott Wapner
So we'll talk ball in a little bit, but when did you first know that you wanted to do this? When you had an eye for business and investing early.
- [21:02]
Joe Montana
And you know, I really wasn't looking for another job. And then one day two guys I played with, Randy, I mean Harris Barton and Ronnie Lott, knocked on my door and said hey, we want to start a fund of funds in venture and because we lived around all the guys who were running Sequoia, Kleiner, Excel, all the top tier funds, we want to leverage our friendships into access. And so we raised those. I said okay, really I'm not looking for a job but let's go. And so we started, we raised I think the first one was like 15 million. And from there we, it grew. And then they helped us get into the top tier leveraged buyout hedge and real estate funds. And somebody made a crazy offer on my house. To everybody's dismay, I sold it and we moved to the wine country. And then I got tired of driving back and forth because it was a minimum two hour drive, sometimes up to four. And so I stepped back from the firm then and been in our kids had gone to school with one of the top tier angel investor, his name, Ron Conway.
- [22:09]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, he's just not one of the top tier guys. He's a legend in that business.
- [22:15]
Joe Montana
So he started taking actually my older son and my wife would join on occasion to the big incubator here, Y combinator. And so we started following them around and just to kind of see what they were doing, the questions they were asking, what things they were looking for and, and we would invest in a company here and there. And then he said, Ron said why don't you just start a fund and I'll help you out best they'll be on, you know, being an advisor, I'll introduce you to LPs and so off I went.
- [22:49]
Scott Wapner
You know, people know your, your coach on the field, Bill Walsh, you know, hall of Famer, one of the best coaches of all time. There's few better to give you a coaching, if you will in your second career than, than Ron Conway. What's the number one thing you think you took from him?
- [23:05]
Joe Montana
Well, you know, everybody thinks it's always about product, right. But as early as we invest is, most of the time it's about people and you're, what you're betting on are the founders. And sometimes it's easier because sometimes there are two or three time founders that have had success already. But for the most part it's a lot more interesting than the fund of funds by far as you're more involved in the company, especially early on. And the thing I took from Bill Walsh in there also was how to assemble a good team. So I have four other partners that are and our backgrounds are all diverse and allows us to invest agnostically around all the silos. So we're having a lot of fun. We have a lot of portfolio companies, but we're often work together. Well, they, they always laugh because when we first got started, I made the partners work for I say three months. They say it's more like six or eight months without pay just to see if we could work together. And I warehoused the investments and then eventually when we formed the fund, I dropped them all back into the fund to my wife's dismay because there was a couple unicorns in there.
- [24:33]
Scott Wapner
So you were on the recent cover of Worth magazine, which is interesting in and of itself. What was more, what's more gratifying to you being on the COVID of Worth? Does it have the same heft as being on the COVID of Si Sports Illustrated, which you obviously had been on many, many times?
- [24:53]
Joe Montana
Yeah, I see it in a different light. Really. I don't sometimes you don't feel like you've earned the worth because I mean, like I said, I have a great team and it feels good to be on the COVID Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad because sometimes you make the COVID for bad things in sports well.
- [25:20]
Scott Wapner
You also don't want the jinx, right? Exactly. It's illustrated jinx.
- [25:23]
Joe Montana
Yeah, exactly. So, no, but it's fun doing the article, and it's great being able to add that to the stack.
- [25:32]
Scott Wapner
I read that you never thought that this could be as fun or exhilarating as what you used to do on Sundays and that you're surprised to find that it actually could the fund of.
- [25:43]
Joe Montana
Funds fit that category. Before that, it wasn't. I say it was never fun. All we did was raise capital for. To give to somebody else. In here, you're investing in companies and people and you get to watch them grow and help them grow. So big difference in how I got started and where we are right now.
- [26:05]
Scott Wapner
You want to talk about the game?
- [26:07]
Joe Montana
Sure.
- [26:08]
Scott Wapner
Who do you like?
- [26:09]
Joe Montana
I like Seattle. I mean, their defense is playing well, their offense is playing well, but really you got two good defenses, and the quarterbacks are both playing well. But the guy likes Sam Darnold. I just think that Sam. He's had a rough. I can't say a rough go because I saw a stat on TV the other day, the teams before he had. He was 28 and 2, and he's. Now he's playing for another team.
- [26:36]
Scott Wapner
Right.
- [26:37]
Joe Montana
You know, how do you. How does that work? And just feel bad for him. Here he is now, which I feel good for him, and the fact that he was able to repeat that in. In Seattle and back in. And now he's in the Super Bowl. I'm sure the people in Minnesota are kicking themselves for letting him go, but just because of what he's been through, I probably pull for Seattle. Yeah.
- [26:59]
Scott Wapner
What do you make of the success of the younger quarterbacks in the league? I mean, it's a difficult position. Nobody knows that more than you. And these younger guys are excelling to a degree that I think has surprised people. Not just these guys, but others around the league, too.
- [27:14]
Joe Montana
I think a lot of things that they did in college are now being adopted into the league, into the NFL. And so it helps them with success early on. It's the guys who can maintain that success are the ones that will obviously be there longer. But some of those guys get in and they have one year success and then are gone, mainly because they. This is just. This is not a fact. This is just. What I see is anytime you see a quarterback who's standing like this and then they look like this to the side, they're telling him what to do. And if you don't learn how to make decisions and read defenses on your own. By the time you get to the NFL, it's too late. And those are the guys I think that struggle. But when you see the guys that are up there and they're actually looking around making decisions on their own and changing a play, those are the guys you'll see that'll probably if they're going to be successful, those are the type of guys you'll see that will be there for more than a year or two.
- [28:21]
Scott Wapner
Well, you're in a different huddle of sorts these days. But we're happy that you're finding great success and we wish you nothing but the best. Thank you so much for the time.
- [28:29]
Joe Montana
Appreciate it. Thank you for having me.
- [28:30]
Bill Baruch
All right.
- [28:30]
Scott Wapner
That is the four time super bowl winner, as we said, Joe Montana. Let's get the headlines now with Kate Rogers. Hi, Kate.
- [28:36]
Bryn Talkington
Hi, Scott. The Pentagon says it will re establish high level military to military dialogue with Russia. The US suspended communications in 2021 just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The announcement comes as the U.S. ukraine and Russia hold a second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi. A federal judge ruled late Wednesday that federal immigration agents in Oregon must stop arresting people without warrants unless there's a likelihood that they will escape. The ruling came in a proposed class action lawsuit against the Trump administration's practice of arresting immigrants they come across during enforcement operations. Judges in Colorado and Washington, D.C. recently passed similar rulings. And Gemini Space Station, the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, announced in a blog post that it's cutting up to 25% of its workforce and winding down operations in the U.K. eU and Australia as part of a cost cutting plan. The news comes as Bitcoin fell below 70,000, its lowest level since November of 2024. For shares of Gemini are down 7%. Scott, back over to you.
- [29:38]
Scott Wapner
All right, Kate, thanks. Up next, we have more committee moves. Josh is buying the dip in one stock that recently hit the skids. We'll tell you what it is in later live interviews with halftime headliners Kenny Dichter and Joe Theisman just ahead of Sunday's big game. We're, of course, keeping an eye on the markets as well. Stocks are under pressure yet again. Tech not having a good day. We're back from one market after this. Hey, Fidelity, can I get a second opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?
- [30:06]
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- [30:08]
Scott Wapner
Outside opinion from independent experts in a single score.
- [30:12]
Bryn Talkington
And then when you're ready, trade US.
- [30:14]
Kate Rooney
Stocks and ETFs with no commissions.
- [30:17]
Scott Wapner
That's right. I am always right. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Online US equity trades and ETFs and retail fidelity accounts Sell Order assessment Thea not included some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com commissions Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member.
- [30:29]
Capella University Announcer
NYSE SIPC There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still. Not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we are here to help you keep going further Capella University what can't you do? Visit Capella. Edu to learn more.
- [30:47]
Bill Baruch
What made you confident that you could.
- [30:49]
Scott Wapner
Do something that hadn't been done before?
- [30:51]
Bryn Talkington
I have no fear of failure.
- [30:53]
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women Changing the game One of.
- [30:56]
Bryn Talkington
My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [31:00]
Kate Rooney
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
- [31:03]
Bryn Talkington
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [31:05]
Kate Rooney
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [31:09]
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [31:17]
Scott Wapner
All right, we're back. All right, Josh, so I was wondering when this was gonna happen. Just being honest. You have called Uber the most misunderstood stock in the market. We have watched the stock sell off. We know what the concerns are. And now you finally said enough is enough and you bought more. Tell me.
- [31:35]
Josh Brown
Yeah, and it's an average up because I'm in the stock for a really long time and it's, it's down now, I think five out of five of the last earnings report days. Like, it's got a perfect record of reporting amazing growth and profitability and increased buybacks and good guidance and blah blah, blah that nobody cares about anymore. And the stock just dumps that day. And it's fine, like my average cost is significantly lower, but yesterday was the dumbest one. They have been listening to the street for 90 days, carrying on. Give us more color on the AV strategy. How are you going to compete in AVs? Blah, blah, blah. So they did it. They put out 11 pages of charts and graphs and commentary and updates on the partnerships they have. It'll matter someday. It doesn't matter today. So for me, that's a great opportunity. I understand that. There's one side of the debate, they think it's blockbuster. The other side of the debate believes what I believe, which is right now, the autonomous vehicles are super sexy and we're all excited about it. It'll drive down costs, etc. But in the end, these are rolling toaster ovens, like 10 years from now they'll be indistinguishable from each other and the only thing the user will care about is does the stupid thing show up on time? Is it clean, does it take me where I need to go safely and is the price reasonable? There's no reason to think any provider in this market will be better than that than Uber who are the best at that in the entire world. I hope I don't have to wait 10 years for people to come around, but that's my opinion and I am willing to die on this hill.
- [33:21]
Scott Wapner
All right, well the stock, it's looking like a nice hill going up anyway. It's at the highs of the day. Bill, you like this move from Josh buying more right here?
- [33:29]
Bill Baruch
I do like it. Full disclosure, we did trim it ahead of earnings and I felt like the chart and felt price was taken telling us something here. And it was a pretty large holding our portfolios that it's now after trim down to 3% in our main portfolio and 5% are concentrated. Here's the thing, it was, it was a tech stock, a straight tech stock. And back in the second half of 2023 is when it first turned positive. EPS. Now we have this massive cash flow juggernaut. It's basically been a repricing the other way around. It's become an industrial stock. The flows are different. So I think it's really working through this sort of difficult time. I think it's going to come out and be a positive story. I think this is a good place to increase it or if you don't own it in your portfolio, to get it in your portfolio. Because I think that repricing in the re narrative is taking place and it's going to be a rebound here, a rebound story the next few months.
- [34:19]
Scott Wapner
All right, coming up next, more on the big business of sports. We have high end hospitality and lifestyle guru Kenny Dichter. He's standing by his big idea for the big game that is next. Welcome back. If a big sporting event is in town, chances are so is our next guest because he's built a high end hospitality and lifestyle company that caters to the high net worth crowd that comes to events like the Super Bowl. Kenny Dichter, he's the founder of Real SLX. He joins us now here at 1 Markets. Good to see you. I would expect nothing less than to see you out here.
- [35:06]
Kenny Dichter
San Francisco. Amazing. You have Joe Montana on the show. I'm somehow in the middle and then Theisman. Between the four of us we got five Super Bowls.
- [35:14]
Scott Wapner
I Feel great about that. So one of the main draws here, aside from the big game, and it usually is whether it's the Masters or the most recent Ryder cup, is this thing you do with Rao's, you have a partnership with, with crypto.com but. But you're announcing a broader collaboration between the two of you today as well, Correct?
- [35:34]
Kenny Dichter
Tell me so really quick is Rao's. You know, when you have Ronnie Stracy and you have Frank Jr. And by the way, first ballot hall of famer Dino Gatto, it's tough to the chef. Yeah, the chef. Chef Dino. It's just an unbelievable, you know, sort of foundation to throw the best events at the best events. And really blessed to be in partnership with Rao's, by the way, hasn't been a reservation since 1977. But on the crypto.com deal is they were looking for a company, a platform to be able to entertain, show appreciation for their best traders on the platform. And as you can imagine, with over 100 million traders, it's really the top 10, 15, 20,000 that could be doing most of the of the volume or a lot of the volume. And we are that platform and we started a Ryder Cup. Now we have super bowl, we're going to Augusta and maybe U.S. open Shinnecock. So we've got some great stuff going.
- [36:30]
Scott Wapner
I mentioned, you know, bringing all of these people together at these events that you do. Do you find that actual business gets done among that crowd?
- [36:39]
Kenny Dichter
If I could commission that, what's been done in Rao's over meatballs, you know, I'd be in a different business. But the net net is tremendous amount of business gets done because you have like minded people and sometimes not like minded people when they get together over, you know, sort of an intimate event where I know it's a great event when the phones are down. So really great. And on the crypto thing, it's hard.
- [37:03]
Scott Wapner
To get the phones down.
- [37:04]
Kenny Dichter
And on the crypto, the reverse where the this deal is really, really exciting. I get to bring our guys are gals to crypto.com so we're onboarding them in the way that we would onboard folks for Berkshire Hathaway at NetJet Back in my store.
- [37:18]
Scott Wapner
Is there, is there, well talk about, is there a common thread between the like the marquee wheels, wheels up and this your new company?
- [37:27]
Kenny Dichter
That leads me to a partnership that we're working on right now with an amazing company, Visa based right here in San Francisco. I got to give Howard Schultz a little credit. He's a little Bit of my North Star with the Starbucks card. I've been in the prepaid business. You pay me for services rendered up in advance and then we deliver the service. So that's a prepaid situation. There's nobody better than visa 600 plus billion market cap. But I'd say one thing about Visa, Scott, we're brainstorming all different ways to create the black card, if you will, of debit for a big company. I've never seen a big company as quick and as agile as Visa. So it's incredible how they bring things to market. And we're super excited about the real debit for people and just as important.
- [38:15]
Scott Wapner
Corporate and the experience economy is as strong as it's ever been and it's.
- [38:19]
Kenny Dichter
Never going to be stronger. I mean the more AI there is, Scott, in the world, the more hi is required. And I just think humans have an innate, you know, an innate desire to assemble. And if you can do that, right, if you can throw the best events at the best events, then you got something.
- [38:37]
Scott Wapner
You figured out a way to do that at all of these events. Kenny, thanks. Good to see you. It's Kenny Dichter. Appreciate and thank you joining us right here at One Market. Still ahead, we're talking super bowl and stock picks with NFL legend and super bowl winner Joe Theisman. He's leaning into one red hot part of the the market will tell you about it because Brin just made a move there too. We are doing that next. All right, let's bring in Kate Rooney who's sitting next to me with a.
- [39:05]
Joe Theisman
Very important news alert.
- [39:06]
Kenny Dichter
What do you have, Scott?
- [39:07]
Kate Rooney
Great to see you. So Anthropic is releasing its latest model. Software investors really should be paying attention to this. Keep in mind this is the giant behind these agents that have been wiping billions off the tech sector in the past week or so. So the news today, Anthropics models are getting even more capable. They're rolling out Claude Opus 4.6 company telling me it is a step function improvement in the speed and these models ability to basically complete complex tasks. Anthropic has been a trailblazer for what we call Vibe coding that's basically democratizing software and app development. This newest model that we're talking about is targeted more at white collar workers across the board, not just coding. So Scott White over there, head of the enterprise product sector at Anthropic called it Vibe working. He tells me Claude is becoming something that it's not just a thing that you ask questions to but you give it a Job and it accomplishes that job. They are highlighting financial analysis. Anthropic says it can quickly comb through documents, spreadsheets, presentation and needs a lot less back and forth on these iterations. All of which, Scott, has big implications for some of the software companies out there.
- [40:10]
Scott Wapner
So what we saw the other day, yeah, that led to really sharp declines in a lot of stocks, even some of the private credit names was an incremental advancement. This, what you're telling me, is much more broad.
- [40:25]
Kate Rooney
Exactly. So what we saw, and it actually came out on Friday, it took the weekend for investors to really digest what that was. It was sort of like an incremental add on to their existing model. This is a sweeping improvement hitting basically every sector that so Legal was the one that really got hit at the time.
- [40:40]
Scott Wapner
That's right.
- [40:40]
Kate Rooney
So kind of a mini improvement. This is across the board. They said it is faster, easier to use. And it's not just software developers. It's really white collar work across the board. You think about just the economic impact. You know, this is kind of replacing the job of a banking intern. They're really focused on banking and financial analysis.
- [40:56]
Scott Wapner
Joe, you know when, when you hear Kate deliver this news and we can only figure that she's going to be reporting on stuff like this for the next months, if not years. How do you think about being a software investor when Kate Rooney is going to be reporting on these models just getting smarter and better and bigger.
- [41:22]
Joe Terranova
So I'm not looking directly at you because I'm looking at S and P Global and Moody's because this is a strike on the financial research industry. This latest updated AI model. We own Moody's, we own S and P Global. I'll look at FactSet in a second. We don't own that. Broadridge Financial. This speaks directly towards the financial research industry. You're right to identify the other day it was about legal, but it just seems as though they're going to a variety of different industries and they're disrupting them.
- [41:53]
Scott Wapner
And Kate, we don't even really know the full magnitude of, of the disrupted yet. We're only trying to place our bets. At least investors are. Hedge funds are leaning against software names too because of this.
- [42:05]
Kate Rooney
It's a great point, I think that Joe just made to that Wall street and financial analysis Anthropic told me yesterday they're tackling the hardest problem, which is finance. If you can do things like discounted cash flows, they're doing the hardest thing first. And then there's this trickle down effect of they're going to take on the easier task so they can conquer Wall street and banking. If they can conquer software development, the downstream effects are just massive.
- [42:27]
Scott Wapner
Kate, thank you very much. That's Kate Rooney with the latest there. All right, football and stocks. I'm not sure what our next guest likes more at this point, but we will find out next. Joe Theisman joins us. Welcome back. Football and stocks, those are two great passions of our next guest, the winning quarterback of super bowl xvii, Joe Theisman joining me now at One Market. This is a treat. Welcome. It's good to have you.
- [43:08]
Joe Theisman
Great to see you. I'm glad we ran into one another.
- [43:10]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I know. Literally on the street and they made this happen. I don't know, honestly, if I've met another former athlete who loves stocks and talking about them as much as you. How and when did that happen?
- [43:22]
Joe Theisman
Probably about 10, 15 years ago. I started doing shows with you guys and I really started to get interested in exactly why things happen, how companies are developed, what are the trends that we see in society today. And I take a look at different sectors and it became interesting. And I had a little bit of success. You know, I go up against my money managers. They do better, but I'm doing okay. And I thought it became competition for me. Was I able to find something that could grow and be able to provide me with that juice? We're competition junkies, every one of us that put that uniform on. And when you leave the game, where do you fill the void? And for me, it became stocks.
- [44:01]
Scott Wapner
It's interesting because we, you know, we just end up asking athletes all the time, hey, do you play the stock market? And nine times out of 10, maybe even like nine and a half out of 10, the answer is, well, I've got somebody who does that for me. Not that you don't, but it sounds to me like you are in, you are in this pool looking at companies, seeing what, what they're they're doing and try to figure out, like every other investor out there where the stocks are going next.
- [44:26]
Joe Theisman
I had a good friend of mine, my, my financial advisor tell me if you're going to invest in something, okay, understand what you're investing in. Learn a little bit about it. Learn how it fits into society. You know, can you touch it, can you feel it, can you see it? Now, obviously, with AI, it's a whole different world. I mean, we're, we've entered a whole new era as far as development goes in the world of everything from work to technology to everything else. But I still think things are on the horizon for me, like for example, nuclear. I've been very, very bullish in my mind on nuclear for quite a while now. And I have a couple of stocks that I hold and you know, we've gone through. When you see parabolic runs like we've seen in gold, silver and some of these other stocks, they're coming back home. The market has a way of disappointing a lot of people. It just, it's like, it's seeing, it sees the pulse of what's going on, says that I think we're going to go south for a little while.
- [45:13]
Scott Wapner
You like OCLO and new scale power?
- [45:15]
Joe Theisman
Yes.
- [45:16]
Scott Wapner
So I mean, as you talk about AI and you like us, almost every day are thinking about, okay, what's going to power all these data centers and everything else moving forward. These specific ones stand out to you?
- [45:26]
Joe Theisman
They do. And really the data centers are what really caught my attention because I live in Northern Virginia. Ashburn, Virginia has really become the Silicon Valley of the East. Everywhere you go there's a data center. Well, how are they going to be powered? How's the water going to get there? So the smaller nuclear plants, smaller nuclear units are eventually where they're going to have to go because the grids just can't handle all the electricity that these things are pulling. It just, it's impossible for them to do it. So I thought, you know, let's look down the road a little bit and see what it looks like.
- [45:55]
Scott Wapner
I love that because Bryn Talkington, who is a member of our investment committee on the show, Bryn, you have a new buy. It's GE Vernova. So I mean, we're talking about the same thing here.
- [46:07]
Bryn Talkington
Like, I mean, such a pleasure. So, you know, it was my final trade a couple of weeks ago. This is not a new name for anybody. Listen to the earnings call go on your quarter app. Listen to the earnings call from Scott Strazik. It is so great. So comparing this with Google's numbers, Google increases their capex. Google uses G over Nova, their aero derivative gas turbines. Okay. So then on top of that they just finished their strategic acquisition of Proloc, which is transformers. And then Scott walked through how they have 150 billion. They ended 2025 with 150 billion in backlogs. This is just a name that's going to be going along with this as these hyperscalers continue to spend.
- [46:48]
Scott Wapner
We've spent so much time over the years together on TV and off talking about biotech. You love those stocks, do you? Are you still involved in those or you've just now moved on to what you think is the next wave?
- [46:59]
Joe Theisman
I think I moved on to the next wave. I mean, I'm still interested in them, but not near as much as I am in the nuclear space. And some of the things that they're, you know, Snowflake is another one out there as far as technology goes. I mean, but that's, you know, it's a little expensive for me. But some of these others are coming back. You know, Oklahoma's gone from 113 to somewhere in the right 60s now. So, you know, it's like I said, it went up and it's come back and it's come home for me to be able to maybe get the nest again.
- [47:23]
Scott Wapner
Who do you like on Sunday?
- [47:25]
Joe Theisman
I like Seattle.
- [47:25]
Joe Montana
You do?
- [47:26]
Joe Theisman
I do for two reasons. Number one, I think defensively across the board, they're very dominant. It's Drake's. You know this. You really can't tell what he did because the Denver game was in such bad weather. So it'll be interesting to see how that goes. But I also thought if anybody gets behind, which team is best equipped to be able to throw the ball around, to be able to come back in a game, And I think it's Seattle.
- [47:50]
Scott Wapner
What a treat. Thanks for making the time to talk.
- [47:53]
Joe Theisman
Running into you. Thank you.
- [47:54]
Scott Wapner
A lot of stocks and a little bit of football, too. So very much fun for us, Joe. Thanks. That's Joe Theisman joining us here. Here's a reminder. So join us at three o'clock on closing bell. Today we're going to continue talking about the super bowl, but from the business of sports standpoint, Bruin Capital's George Pyne is going to be with me. He's a pioneer in the sports investing field. Sports deal guru Mark Ganis will be here as well. And we're going to get you set up obviously for Amazon and those big numbers. Star analyst Mark Mahaney is going to be right here sitting with me. You'll see Kate Rooney, of course, again, talking about that as well. And then Brad Gerstner will join us tomorrow. I'm going to be live outside of Levi Stadium, so we'll have a little bit of a different backdrop and we'll talk to Brad about all things going on in tech and what a week it has been on that regard. Let's do some final trades. Brin, what do you have? First, Zoom.
- [48:46]
Bryn Talkington
I know Joe's going to like that. You've got anthropic state plus high free cash flow.
- [48:51]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, he likes it because when you look at the list of the software stocks that have gotten destroyed, it's one of the only ones on a year to date standpoint that that's green. So, Joe, you get the next one.
- [49:01]
Joe Terranova
Absolutely. I own it personally as well. Let's go with Merck. You could also buy Amgen or Gilly, the ed in health care.
- [49:07]
Bill Baruch
All right, Bill Baruch, Palantir, monster report this week. It's lower. Big, big support. 120 to 130. Got to look at it here.
- [49:15]
Scott Wapner
All right, what do you got, Josh?
- [49:18]
Josh Brown
Some repair in this Kinsale Capital chart. A double bottom at 370. I think the risk is already priced in and the stock should work higher.
- [49:26]
Scott Wapner
All right, thank you, guys. All right, so stocks are trying to come off their worst levels. We'll take you through the final stretch on closing bell at three o'.
- [49:33]
Joe Montana
Clock.
- [49:33]
Scott Wapner
I'll be back at one market. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [49:46]
Capella University Announcer
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Building a portfolio.
- [50:22]
Joe Montana
With Fidelity Basket Portfolios is kind of like making a sandwich. It's as simple as picking your ST.
- [50:28]
Josh Brown
Stocks and ETFs, sort of like your.
- [50:30]
Scott Wapner
Meats and other topics and managing it as one big juicy investment.
- [50:37]
Josh Brown
Mmm.
- [50:37]
Joe Montana
Now that's pretty good.
- [50:39]
Scott Wapner
Learn more@fidelity.com baskets Investing involves risks, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC member.