CNBC Halftime Report: "The AI Spend-A-Palooza"
Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Location: One Market, San Francisco
Themes: Market volatility, hyperscaler CapEx, the AI-driven tech shakeup, investment strategies, and the intersection of sports, hospitality, and business.
Episode Overview
This Super Bowl-week episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report brings thematic convergence between the markets and top-tier sports, featuring extended market analysis and interviews with NFL legends turned business leaders. The main focus: the market’s volatile reaction to massive AI-related capital expenditures by tech giants (“Spend-A-Palooza”), its impact on software and semiconductor stocks, and how veteran investors are navigating this period of sector rotation and uncertainty. Special guests Joe Montana and Joe Theisman discuss their second-act business ventures and investment philosophies, while lifestyle impresario Kenny Dichter shares lessons from the ultra-high-end hospitality space.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Check: Tech Sell-off and Sector Rotation
[00:59–04:31]
- Scott Wapner sets the stage: A tough market session with tech stocks “getting slammed,” Bitcoin sliding, silver off sharply, and unusual money flows into consumer staples.
- Josh Brown explains:
- Tech is down 5% YTD, worst-performing S&P 500 sector.
- Rotation into sectors “deemed less AI-disruptible” like consumer staples and materials is being driven by institutional chessboard rebalancing, not by improved fundamentals.
- Calls the dynamic a “mass rerating...herd shift,” and warns against chasing hot charts without fundamentals.
- Quote: “Pepsi and Coke look like they just discovered a cure for cancer. I promise you, none of what’s happening in these prices has anything to do with fundamentals.” (03:38, Josh Brown)
2. Hyperscaler CapEx: The ‘Spend-A-Palooza’ and Investor Anxiety
[04:31–09:43]
- Bryn Talkington highlights market overreaction:
- Even quality tech names like Google (Alphabet) are getting punished despite impressive KPIs.
- CapEx fears are overblown: “The returns are here... Google is a great opportunity. Let it come down here.” (06:40, Bryn Talkington)
- Suggests market “fussiness” is creating opportunities for selective buyers.
- Joe Terranova warns of Mag 7 fatigue:
- Investors are now “fatigued...exhausted” by megacaps and are eyeing derivative plays like Broadcom, semiconductors, and datacenter infrastructure (e.g., Hubble Corp).
- Bill Baruch previews Amazon earnings:
- Looks for “reacceleration” in AWS as the key growth indicator.
- Notes a shaky macro environment—if earnings aren’t “absolutely perfect,” stocks will be punished.
3. Software and Semiconductors: Overdone Selloffs and Long-Term Perspective
[10:34–16:24]
- Scott Wapner details the staggering YTD declines in cloud/software stocks (e.g., DocuSign: –32%, Service Titan: –39%).
- Josh Brown defends long-term software investing:
- Emphasizes importance of “investor behavior,” not trader moves.
- Quote: “You can’t just nuke your tech stack because somebody makes something with a chatbot... What is more likely?... A) Every corporation in America... is going to rip out the software that serves as the system of record... or B) The best-in-class software companies... are going to figure out how to use AI to make their own product stickier... B just seems obvious.” (12:36, Josh Brown)
- Sees current prices as opportunities for investors with a multi-quarter horizon.
- Joe Terranova stays overweight semiconductors over software, especially equipment names like KLA, Applied Materials, and LAM Research.
4. Managing Risk Amid Uncertainty – Semis, Bitcoin, and Rotations
[16:24–19:06]
- Bill Baruch trims Micron for risk management after parabolic moves. Still bullish but wary of near-term volatility.
- Sells Coinbase and Bitcoin ETF after Bitcoin breaks below key support ($75k, now sub-$67k).
- Quote: “Bitcoin below 75,000 very worries me and opens the door... maybe the next round number 50,000 or so.” (18:45, Bill Baruch)
5. Special Guest: Joe Montana on Championship Mindset in Venture Capital
[20:32–28:28]
“From the Huddle to the Boardroom”
- Joe Montana (NFL legend, Liquid2 Ventures founder) shares how he entered VC:
- Initially “wasn’t looking for another job,” but friends/teammates drew him in.
- Mentored by Ron Conway (called “a legend” by Scott Wapner).
- Early-stage investing is “not always about product”; it’s about betting on founders.
- His big lesson from Bill Walsh: Team-building is crucial for startup and fund success.
- Quote: “As early as we invest, most of the time it’s about people... Not about product.” (23:04, Joe Montana)
- Calls venture more exhilarating than pro football, due to building and watching new ventures grow.
- On Super Bowl: Pulls for Seattle out of respect for Sam Darnold’s journey.
- Quote: “I think a lot of things they did in college are now being adopted into the NFL... It’s the guys who can maintain that success...” (27:13, Joe Montana)
6. Big Business of Events: Kenny Dichter on Experiential Luxury
[35:05–38:36]
- Kenny Dichter (founder, Real SLX; ex-Wheels Up):
- Discusses building premium event experiences at venues like the Super Bowl.
- Announces expanded partnership with Rao’s and crypto.com, catering to top traders.
- Quote: “If I could commission what’s been done in Rao’s over meatballs, I’d be in a different business... the net-net is tremendous amount of business gets done because you have like-minded people... at an intimate event.” (36:39, Kenny Dichter)
- On the “hi-tech versus hi-touch” balance: “The more AI there is ... the more HI [human interaction] is required. Humans have an innate desire to assemble.”
7. AI Models and Disruption: Anthropic’s New Model Ups the Stakes
[39:05–42:27]
- Kate Rooney reports Anthropic’s release of Claude Opus 4.6, a major upgrade targeting white-collar and financial analysis tasks.
- Implies AI is not just replacing coders, but tasks like discounted cash flows and report writing.
- Quote: “If you can do things like discounted cash flows, they’re doing the hardest thing first... the downstream effects are just massive.” (42:04, Kate Rooney)
- Joe Terranova: “This is a strike on the financial research industry.”
8. Guest: Joe Theisman – From Gridiron to Growth Investing
[43:08–47:52]
- Joe Theisman discusses his passion for the market:
- Investing became a source of post-NFL competitive fulfillment. “We’re competition junkies... it became stocks.” (44:01, Joe Theisman)
- Current focus: Nuclear energy stocks (OCLO, NuScale), anticipating demand from data centers.
- Quote: “The grids just can’t handle all the electricity that these things are pulling... So the smaller nuclear plants are eventually where they’re going to have to go.” (45:25, Joe Theisman)
- Bryn Talkington echoes the theme, highlighting GE Vernova as a buy on data center/hyperscaler demand.
9. Final Trades & Concluding Advice
[48:46–49:26]
- Bryn Talkington: Zoom (“Anthropic stake plus high free cash flow”).
- Joe Terranova: Merck (plus Amgen or Gilead).
- Bill Baruch: Palantir (“monster report this week; big, big support 120–130”).
- Josh Brown: Kinsale Capital (“some repair in this chart... should work higher”).
Memorable Quotes & Moments
-
Josh Brown on Market Rotation:
“As an investor, you have a choice. You could say, I want to run off and join the circus too. Or you can remain calm, focus on the fundamentals... This is a function of what your personality type is.” (03:10) -
Bryn Talkington on Google:
“It was amazing. Search grew 17%. Their free cash flow is massive... They are clicking on all metrics.” (05:35) -
Joe Montana on Early-Stage Investing:
“Most of the time it’s about people and you're...betting on the founders.” (23:04) -
Kenny Dichter on Events:
“The more AI there is in the world, the more HI is required. Humans have an innate desire to assemble.” (38:18) -
Joe Theisman on Data Centers and Nuclear:
“The grids just can’t handle all the electricity that these things are pulling... the smaller nuclear plants are eventually where they’re going to have to go.” (45:25)
Important Timestamps
- Market Overview & Tech Rout: 00:59–04:31
- AI CapEx Concerns / Google, Amazon: 04:31–09:43
- Software Meltdown & Investment Approaches: 10:34–14:07
- Semis vs Software: 14:07–16:12
- Micron/BTC Risk Reduction: 16:24–19:06
- Joe Montana Interview: 20:32–28:28
- Kenny Dichter Interview: 35:05–38:36
- Anthropic Model Update, AI Disruption: 39:05–42:27
- Joe Theisman Interview & Picks: 43:08–47:52
- Final Trades: 48:46–49:26
Summary & Flow
Today’s Halftime Report offered a masterclass in how the AI revolution—particularly massive infrastructure spending by tech giants—reverberates through every corner of the market. The investment committee navigated runaway sector rotation; guest stars Montana and Theisman translated championship focus to investment philosophy; and news of Anthropic’s breakthrough underscored the disruption facing traditional software and financial services businesses. The consensus for long-term investors: Stay disciplined, seek quality amid fussiness, and be alert to new opportunities that volatility presents—whether in the market or in life’s next chapter.